Pedroso, John Francis V.

May 22, 2017

CE141
Forecasting Travel Demands

Travel demand, according to Garber & Hoel, is expressed as the number of persons or
vehicles per unit time that can be expected to travel on a given segment of transportation system
under a set of given land-use, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. This demand is
created by the separation of urban activities.
Knowledge of future traffic flow is an essential input in the planning, implementation and
development of a transportation system, as well as its operation, management, and control. Being
able to estimate or forecast this number is very important for transportation engineers because
this will enable them to evaluate the future performance of transportation system alternatives.
Travel demand forecasting will also help in identifying problem areas proactively, thereby
allowing transportation engineers to utilize resources on the most efficient ways to solve future
transportation problems.
Travel demand forecasting attempts to estimate the number of vehicles or people that will
use a transportation facility in the future. For example, a forecast may estimate the number of
vehicles that will pass on a planned road or bridge. However, this data is not used independently.
Travel demand forecast data are combined with other known data in order to develop a traffic
demand model for the current situation, which will be further explained later. Such data include
population and employment data in an area. The methods used in travel demand forecasting
ranges from a simple extrapolation of observed trends to a sophisticated computerized process
involving extensive gathering of data and mathematical modeling. The methods that will be used
in forecasting demand depends on the availability of data, availability of funds and project
schedules.
There are four basic phases in the travel demand forecasting process. The first one is
Trip Generation which forecasts the number of trips that will be made. Second is Trip
Distribution which determines where the trips will go. Third is Mode Choice which predicts
how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel. And the last one is Traffic
Assignment which predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the
highway system and ridership forecasts for the transit system.
However, before beginning to forecast travel demand, urban activity forecasts must first
be done. Urban activity forecasts provide estimates of where people will live and where different
type of businesses will be located in the future. The intensity of activity, such as the number of
households and number of employees of businesses are also included in these forecasts. These
forecasts are done for small parcels of land which are called zones. These zones form the basis
for analysis of travel movements within, into, and out of the urban area. Zones can have different
sizes; the smallest can be about the size of a block in a downtown area and the largest on the
urban area being several square kilometers.
 Zone urban activity forecasts are based on several factors and data. One of these is the
total urban area population and employment estimate. Location behavior of people and
businesses and local policies regarding land development, transportation, zoning, sewers, etc. are
also the basis of zone activity forecasts. These activity forecasts are very important because these
are the direct inputs to the first phase of the travel demand forecasting, which is the trip
generation analysis.
In the Trip Generation Analysis phase, the measures of urban activity are translated
into number of trips. In this process, an estimate of the number of trips that begin or end in each
traffic analysis zone is generated based on the amount of activity in the analysis area. Each of
these trips has two ends, and these ends are described based on the purpose of the trip. The trips
are either produced by a traffic zone or attracted to a traffic zone. For example, a home-to-school
trip would have a trip end produced in the home zone and attracted to the school zone. The
purpose of the trip generation analysis phase is to develop a relationship between the trip end
production or attraction and land use, and to use this relationship to estimate the number of trips
generated at some future date under a new set of land use conditions.
To illustrate this purpose, let us say a certain zone has an employment of 900 people and
it attracts 4, 511 trips. By dividing the trips by employees, we find about 5 trips attracted per
employee. This rate can then be used to predict trip attractions for future employment levels.
As mentioned earlier, the study area is divided into zones for analysis purposes. After
trip generation analysis, the planner knows how many trips are produced by each zone, and how
many are attracted by each zone. In addition, the planner will also know the purposes for the
trips which are put into several categories, like trips from home to work, or home to shop.
After trip generation, the analyst knows the numbers of trip productions and trip
attractions each zone will have. But where do the attractions in a certain zone come from and
where do the productions go? This question is answered in the second step of the travel demand
forecasting process, which is the Trip Distribution. The trip distribution procedure determines
where the trips produced in each zone will go and how they will be divided among all other
zones in the study area. These trips may be within the study area (internal-internal) or between
the study area and areas outside the study area (internal-external).
There are several basic methods that are used for trip distribution. These includes the
gravity model, which is the most widely used and documented trip distribution model, which
states that the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to the number of trip
attractions generated by the zone of destination and inversely proportional to a function of time
of travel between the two zones. Another model used is the growth factor model, which is
primarily used to distribute trips between zones in the study area and zones in cities external to
the study area.
The third aspect of the forecasting process is the Mode Choice, which determines the
number of trips between zones that are made by automobile and by transit. In this phase of travel
demand forecasting, we analyze the decision of the people regarding mode of travel -- auto, bus,
train., etc. This phase attempts to replicate the relevant characteristics of the traveler, the
transportation system, and the trip itself, such that a realistic estimate of the number of trips by
each mode for each zonal pair is obtained.
But, before we can predict how travel will be split among the different modes available to the
traveler, we must first analyze the factors that affect the choice that these people make. These
factors can include the characteristics of the trip maker; the characteristics of the trip; and the
characteristics of the transportation system. It can also depend on the travelers income, the
availability of transit service or auto ownership, and the relative advantages of each mode in
terms of travel time, cost, comfort, convenience, and safety. The transportation engineer should
look at how these characteristics interact to affect the trip makers choice of mode of travel.
After the analysis of these factors, the planner can now predict how the population of the future
will choose from among the modes of transport that will be available.
Since public transportation is a vital transportation component in urban areas, like General
Santos City, mode choice calculations typically involve distinguishing trip interchanges as either
auto or transit. Depending on the level of detail required, three types of transit estimating
procedures are used: (1) direct generation of transit trips, (2) use of trip end models,
and (3) trip interchange modal split models. The first method assumes that the attributes of the
system are not relevant. Factors such as travel time, cost, and convenience are not considered.
The second model generates estimates based on land-use or socioeconomic characteristics of the
zone, and does not incorporate the quality of service. In the last model, system level-of-service
variables are considered, including relative travel time, relative travel cost, economic status of
the trip maker, and relative travel service.
The last phase of the travel demand forecasting process is the Trip Assignment. This
procedure is where the planner predicts the paths the trips will take and the expected traffic
volumes. For example, if a trip goes from a suburb to downtown, the model predicts which
specific roads or transit routes are used for the trip. This phase starts by constructing a map that
represents the vehicle and transit network in the study area. This map will show the possible
paths that the trip will take to go from one location to another. The intersections (called nodes)
on the network map are identified, so that the sections between them (called links) can be
determined. After the links are identified, the length, type of facility, location in the area, number
of lanes, speed or speed limit, and travel time are identified for each of the links. If transit is
available, additional information, which identifies fares, headways (time between vehicles), and
route descriptions, is included on a separate network.
In carrying out trip assignment, the following data are also required: (1) number of trips that
will be made from one zone to another (this information was determined in the trip distribution
phase), (2) available highway or transit routes between zones, (3) how long it will take to travel
on each route, (4) a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains how motorists or transit users select
a route, and (5) external trips that were not considered in the previous trip generation and
distribution steps.
There are three basic approaches that can be used in traffic assignments. First is the diversion
curves where the traffic between two routes is determined as a function of relative travel time or
cost. Second is the minimum time path (all-or-nothing) assignment which assigns all trips to
those links that comprise the shortest time path between the two zones. This method is
commonly used because it is commonly used and it generally produces accurate results. The
third approach is minimum time path with capacity restraint which is similar to the second one
except for the modification called capacity restraint. The number of trips assigned to each link is
compared with the capacity of the link to determine the extent to which link travel times have
been increased by the additional volume placed on the formerly empty link.
Using these analyses of trip generation, trip distribution, mode usage, and trip assignment,
the transportation engineer can obtain realistic estimates of the effects of policies and programs
on travel demand. Once travel demand is known, the transportation engineer can assess the
performance of alternative transportation systems and identify various impacts that the system
will have on the urban area, such as energy use, pollution, and accidents. With information on
how transportation systems perform, and the magnitude of their impacts, planners can provide
decision-makers with some of the information they need to evaluate alternative methods of
supplying a community with transportation services.
And without proper transportation planning and travel demand forecasting, the opposite of
this will simply happen. The performance of the currently existing and proposed transportation
system will not be properly assessed, thereby reducing and possibly nullifying its effectiveness in
the future. This will result in a waste of huge amount of financial, environmental and time
resources. This lack of proper planning and forecasting will give rise to a lot of traffic problems
that will affect everyone in the community. This includes increase in traffic congestion, increase
in accidents, and an increase of noise and air pollution in the area which has a very significant
effect to everyone.
An example of this situation is the increase of the number of tricycles in the city of General
Santos which has worsen the traffic congestion in major roadways specially during peak hours.
The increase was brought about by the rapid growing of the economy of the city and the increase
in demand of a much better transportation by the public. A tricycle is a much more preferred
choice of mode of transport because of its ability to go from a specific point to another specific
location, which is not usually possible with public utility jeeps resulting in the decline of the
number of PUJs in the city. This demand will not go down in the future, and if no proper
transportation planning and additional travel demand forecasting will be done by the city
transportation planners, the transportation problems that we are experiencing now will still
persist, and most likely will become worse in the near future.
References:
Dhingra, S.L.; Mujumdar, P.P.; Gajjar, R.H. 1993. Application of time series techniques
for forecasting truck traffic attracted by the Bombay metropolitan region, Journal of
Advanced Transportation. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/atr.5670270303, 27(3): 227-
249.

Garber, N. J., & Hoel, L. A. (2009). Traffic and highway engineering. Toronto, ON:
Cengage Learning.

Transportation Modeling. (n.d.). Retrieved May 20, 2017, from

https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/

Travel demand forecasting: parameters and techniques. (2012). Washington, D.C:

Transportation Research Board.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL HIGHWAY

ADMINISTRATION URBAN MASS TRANSPORTATION ADMINISTRATION.
(1977). An Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting - A Self Instructional Text.
Retrieved May 21, 2017, from https://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/UT.html.

Ullah, M. S. (2010, April 8). Travel Demand Modeling for a Small sized MPO Using
TRANSIMS. Retrieved May 21, 2017, from https://www.tracc.anl.gov/index.php/travel-
demand-modeling