Consensus Forecasts: Survey Date October 14, 2013

CONSENSUS FORECASTS
E-mail Edition: - Consensus Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Under our agreement this publica-
tion may not be reproduced (complete or partial), redistributed, stored in a public
retrieval system or broadcast to persons other than the email subscriber without the
prior written permission of Consensus Economics Inc.
Survey Date
October 14, 2013
Every month, Consensus Economics surveys over 250 prominent financial and economic
forecasters for their estimates of a range of variables including future growth, inflation, interest
rates and exchange rates. More than 20 countries are covered and the reference data, together
with analysis and polls on topical issues, is rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
Survey Highlights
Contents US recovery prospects have been hit by the government shut-

down (which finally ended on October 17), caused by dispute
Page over the FY2014 budget. The 2013 GDP forecast remains
Significant Changes in the unchanged at 1.6%, but the dysfunctional, polarised political
Consensus ......................................... 2 wrangling has hurt confidence in the US. The UK outlook has
improved, although some are fearful that the government's "help
Special Survey: to buy" scheme could induce another housing market bubble.
Long-Term Forecasts
(continued on page 28-29)..................... 3 Angela Merkel secured an emphatic victory in last month's
German elections, and enters her third term with consumption
Individual Country Forecasts picking up pace. By contrast, a debilitated labour market keeps
Italy mired in recession, although PM Enrico Letta won an
United States ...................................... 4 October 2nd parliamentary vote of confidence to ensure the
Japan .................................................. 6 near-term future of his coalition government.
Germany ............................................. 8
France .............................................. 10 This months special survey is our regular compilation of Long-
United Kingdom ................................ 12 Term Forecasts (pages 3, 28, and 29) for the next 5-10 years.
Italy .................................................. 14 Moreover, our Significant Changes section (page 2) contrasts
Canada ............................................. 16 long-term aggregate forecasts for 2019-2023 with previous
aggregates going back to April 1996, allowing for an examination
Euro zone .......................................18
of trends in long-term GDP and inflation expectations.
Netherlands ....................................... 20 Our next issue of Consensus Forecasts will be available at
Norway .............................................. 21 the end of the day on November 14, 2013 and will include
Spain ................................................ 22 Corporate Profits and Real Interest Rates.
Sweden ............................................. 23
Switzerland ....................................... 24 % change, US, Japan, UK and Euro zone Long-Term
y-o-y
Real GDP Growth Forecasts (see page 3 and 28)
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Egypt, 3 .5 (% change year-on-year)
Finland, Greece ................................ 25 3 .0
Ireland, Israel, Nigeria, Portugal, 2 .5
Saudi Arabia, South Africa ................ 26 2 .0
1 .5
Foreign Exchange and Oil Price 1 .0
Forecasts ......................................... 27 0 .5
0 .0
Special Survey: - 0 .5
Long-Term Forecasts <Consensus Forecasts>
- 1 .0
(continued from page 3). ........... 28-29 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
World Economic Activity ................ 32 USA Japan UK E u ro z o n e
Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 0957-0950) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Editor: Claire V. M. Hubbard
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom Assistant Editor: Christopher J. McNiff
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 Web: www.consensuseconomics.com Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, photocopying, digitalization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or take any responsibility for the
information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM CONSENSUS OCTOBER 2013
This month, we chart Significant Changes in Long-Term United States Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts
% change % change
Forecast Trends for GDP and Inflation for the US, Japan, (% change over previous year)
3 .5 3 .5
Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada. Long-term GDP Growth
projections for the 6-10 year period average (in this case 3 .0 3 .0
2019-2023) are contrasted with those long-term aggregates
published all the way back to April 1996. It is this rolling 6-10
2 .5 2 .5
year trendline average which we show in the charts below.
The 6-10-year trend averages shown in these charts are a Consumer Price
2 .0 2 .0
measure of changes in potential growth and inflation expec- Inflation
tations. This construct has two problems, however. One is
1 .5 1 .5
that the 6-10 year horizon is a moving target shifting forward
one year, each year. The other is that the number of
1 .0 1 .0
panellists responding to our long-term surveys is smaller and
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
therefore less representative than the numbers responding to
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
A
A
Survey Date
our one and two-year surveys on pages 4-24.
% change
Japan Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts % change Germany Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts % change
% change
(% change over previous year) 3.5 (% change over previous year) 3 .5
3 .5 3 .5
<Note: scale different from other charts>
3 .0 3 .0
3.0 3 .0
GDP Growth
2 .5 2 .5
2.5 2 .5
2 .0 2 .0
GDP Growth
1 .5 1 .5 2.0 2 .0
1 .0 1 .0
1.5 1 .5
Consumer Price Consumer Price
0 .5 0 .5
Inflation Inflation
0 .0 0 .0 1.0 1 .0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
97
99
00
01
02
04
05
06
07
08
09
11
13
'9
'9
'0
'1
'1
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
A
A
Survey Date Survey Date
France Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts % change

United Kingdom Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts
% change
3 .5 (% change over previous year) 3.5 % change (% change over previous year) % change
4 .5 4 .5
GDP Growth 4 .0 4 .0
3 .0 3.0 Underlying Retail
3 .5 Price Inflation 3 .5
2 .5 2.5
3 .0 3 .0
2 .5 2 .5
2 .0 2.0
2 .0 2 .0
GDP
1 .5 1.5
Consumer Price Growth
Consumer Price 1 .5 1 .5
Inflation Inflation
1 .0 1.0 1 .0 1 .0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
96
97
98
00
01
04
3
'9
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'1
'1
'1
'1
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
A
A
% change
Italy Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts % change % change
Canada Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts % change
3.5
(% change over previous year) 3 .5 3.5 (% change over previous year) 3.5

3.0 3 .0 GDP Growth
GDP Growth 3.0 3.0
2.5 2 .5
2.5 2.5
2.0 2 .0
2.0 2.0
1.5 1 .5 Consumer Price
Consumer Price Inflation
1.0
Inflation 1 .0
1.5 1.5
0.5 0 .5 1.0 1.0

6
3
96
97
98
99
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
'9
'9
'9
'9
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'0
'1
'1
'1
'1
'0
'0
'0
'1
'1
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
.'
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
.
r.
r.
r.
r.
r.
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
pr
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
A
A
Our Notes and Abbreviations section has been temporarily moved to page 30.
2 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013
OCTOBER 2013 LONG-TERM FORECASTS
In addition to their regular forecasts, country panellists were asked to provide longer-term forecasts covering the period until
2023 for growth in real GDP, consumer spending, investment and industrial production, along with consumer price inflation,
current account balances and long-term bond yields. All definitions correspond to those used in the individual country pages.
United States
* % change over previous year Historical Consensus Forecasts
1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2023
Gross Domestic Product* -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.6 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5
Personal Consumption* -1.6 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
Business Investment* -15.6 2.5 7.6 7.3 2.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.1 3.8
Industrial Production* -11.3 5.7 3.4 3.6 2.3 3.0 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.7
Consumer Prices* -0.3 1.6 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Current Account Balance (USbn) -382 -449 -458 -440 -406 -415 -492 -498 -490 -482 -526
10 Year Treasury Bond Yield, % 2 3.8 3.4 1.9 1.8 2.8 3
3.2 4 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0
1 2
Signifies average for period End period 3End January 2014 4End October 2014
The G-7's looming structural problems came into focus after hikes, US lawmakers continue to battle over fiscal spending
the financial system buckled under the weight of toxic decisions. On the regulatory front, businesses are facing
corporate assets and heavily-mortgaged households in 2008. more binding tax and employment legislation and healthcare
The collapse in economic output was dramatic and the debt costs. In US$ terms, the Federal budget deficit is already the
load taken on by governments added to the indebtedness highest in the world. Can public and private indebtedness be
problem. Five years on and with sentiment lifting slightly meaningfully reduced in order to spur growth? If the eco-
more downbeat longer-term GDP assumptions still prevail. nomic environment is perceived to be less business-friendly,
Austerity fatigue has hit the Euro area where a lost generation will foreign capital seek more profitable or secure returns
of unemployed youth argues for a 'drive for growth.' Even elsewhere? And is the job market, once so vibrant, heading
Germany which in 2003 spearheaded 'Agenda 2010' social towards stagnancy? These are some of the questions
security and labour market reforms in the face of competition hanging over the US long-term outlook. G-7 politics as a
from lower-cost markets admits that stronger growth is whole have become increasingly polarized note the im-
needed alongside fiscal consolidation. Japan has been the passe between corporations wanting to pay less tax and
most pro-active in embarking on growth-focused policies, but governments increasingly desperate to meet tax and spend-
activity is still expected to moderate to around 1% over its ing targets. Therefore, the onus is on a consumption-led
forecast horizon hardly fertile ground upon which to support economic template and looser monetary conditions to boost
the rising tide of retirees whose pensions have been eroded activity, even though the G-7s savers (including its pension-
by deflation. Three quarters on from government cuts and tax ers) will continue to be short-changed.
Tables continued on pages 28-29
Japan
* % change over previous year Historical Consensus Forecasts
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Gross Domestic Product* -5.5 4.7 -0.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1
Private Consumption* -0.7 2.8 0.5 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8
Business Investment* -14.2 0.7 3.3 1.8 -0.8 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.0
Industrial Production* -21.6 15.6 -2.6 0.2 -0.5 4.3 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6
Consumer Prices* -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3
Current Account Balance (tn) 13.7 17.9 9.6 4.8 5.8 8.5 11.7 13.3 13.3 12.7 9.9
3 4
10 Year Treasury Bond Yield, %2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9
Germany
Historical Consensus Forecasts
* % change over previous year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Private Consumption* 0.2 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9
Machinery & Eqpt Investment* -22.7 10.0 5.8 -4.0 -2.1 4.8 5.4 4.0 3.4 2.3 2.8
Industrial Production* -15.4 10.1 6.8 -0.4 0.0 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.7
Consumer Prices* 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8
Current Account Balance (Euro bn) 142 156 161 186 186 187 184 182 181 187 192
3 4
1 2 3 4
Signifies average for period End period End January 2014 End October 2014
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 3

UNITED STATES OCTOBER 2013
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual Total

Auto &
Gross Personal Business Pre - Tax Industrial Con- Producer Employ- Light Housing
Domestic Consum- Invest- Corporate Product- sumer Prices ment Truck Starts
Product ption ment Profits ion Prices Costs Sales (inc.
imports, (mn units)
mn units)
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Am erican Int'l G roup 1.8 2.7 2.3 3.3 3.9 3.4 1.4 2.1 2.5 3.9 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 na na 15.5 16.0 1.00 1.35
Ford Motor Com pany 1.8 3.0 2.1 3.3 3.7 5.9 na na 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.2 na na na na 0.95 1.27
Citigroup 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.9 2.5 4.5 na na 2.7 4.7 1.5 2.1 na na na na na na na na
UBS 1.7 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.8 6.4 na na 2.5 3.5 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 na na 0.95 1.15
Standard & Poor's 1.7 2.8 2.0 2.8 2.7 6.5 3.7 4.4 2.4 3.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 1.9 2.5 15.6 16.0 0.94 1.22
PNC Financial Services 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.9 na na 2.3 3.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.8 na na 15.6 16.0 0.93 1.02
JP Morgan 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.8 5.9 4.3 6.5 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.4 15.5 15.7 0.93 1.12
Barclays Capital 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.8 6.4 4.4 6.5 2.5 4.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 na na na na 0.93 1.16
DuPont 1.6 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 4.8 5.0 6.5 2.4 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 15.5 16.0 0.94 1.20
Econ Intelligence Unit 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.2 na na na na 2.5 3.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 2.9 na na na na na na
Fannie Mae 1.6 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.3 3.2 1.8 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 na na 15.5 15.9 0.93 1.21
First Trust Advisors 1.6 2.8 1.9 2.7 2.6 4.9 na na 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 na na 15.5 16.0 0.92 1.09
HSBC 1.6 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.8 5.7 na na 2.3 2.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 15.4 15.7 0.91 0.94
Morgan Stanley 1.6 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.3 6.1 4.8 4.3 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.3 na na 15.7 16.8 0.94 1.14
O xford Econom ics 1.6 2.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 6.5 na na 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.4 na na 0.91 1.11
RDQ Econom ics 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.8 5.9 4.1 5.3 2.3 2.6 1.6 2.2 na na na na 15.7 16.0 0.90 1.20
Wells Capital Mgm t 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 7.1 2.5 3.3 2.3 3.0 1.5 2.2 1.5 2.9 1.9 2.0 15.6 15.9 0.91 0.92
Wells Fargo 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 4.5 4.5 5.3 2.4 3.8 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 15.6 16.1 0.95 1.14
Univ of Michigan - RSQ E 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 5.1 3.8 4.5 2.2 2.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 na na 15.6 16.0 0.93 1.18
Credit Suisse 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.8 5.5 3.8 4.9 2.4 3.4 1.5 1.5 na na na na na na 0.92 1.09
Northern Trust 1.6 2.7 1.9 2.6 2.7 4.9 na na na na 1.5 1.9 na na na na 15.5 15.8 0.91 1.02
Moody's Analytics 1.6 3.1 1.9 3.3 2.8 4.8 3.4 7.3 2.3 2.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 15.6 16.6 0.94 1.49
G eneral Motors 1.6 2.7 1.9 2.9 2.3 3.2 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.5 na na na na 0.92 1.23
Eaton Corporation 1.5 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.6 5.0 8.2 2.4 3.5 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.3 15.5 16.1 0.92 1.11
Bank of Am erica - Merrill 1.5 2.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 6.0 na na 2.3 3.2 1.5 1.6 na na na na 15.5 16.2 0.93 1.15
Nat Assn of Hom e Builders 1.5 2.7 1.9 2.6 2.4 3.4 na na 2.1 2.4 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.3 15.5 15.8 0.92 1.15
IHS G lobal Insight 1.5 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.4 5.0 2.3 4.2 2.4 3.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.9 2.5 15.5 15.9 0.91 1.15
The Conference Board 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.3 4.1 4.3 8.2 2.3 3.3 1.4 1.8 1.3 2.8 na na 15.7 16.3 0.94 1.16
Inforum - Univ of Maryland 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.2 6.0 3.3 4.3 2.4 3.3 1.5 2.0 1.4 2.8 na na 15.5 16.1 0.97 1.16
Sw iss Re 1.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.7 6.0 4.4 7.4 2.3 2.7 1.6 2.2 1.2 0.9 na na 15.7 16.4 0.93 1.20
Action Econom ics 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 4.1 4.0 4.8 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.3 2.7 1.9 2.1 15.5 16.6 0.93 1.16
G eorgia State University 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.2 -1.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.5 1.9 2.3 15.3 14.6 0.86 0.91
Consensus (Mean) 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 5.0 3.6 4.7 2.3 3.0 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.2 15.6 16.0 0.93 1.15
Last Month's Mean 1.6 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 5.3 3.7 5.2 2.3 3.0 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 15.6 16.0 0.95 1.19
3 Months Ago 1.8 2.7 2.1 2.6 4.4 5.9 2.7 4.5 2.6 3.4 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 15.4 15.8 1.01 1.25
High 1.8 3.1 2.3 3.3 3.9 7.1 5.0 8.2 2.7 4.7 1.6 2.3 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.5 15.7 16.8 1.00 1.49
Low 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.7 1.4 -1.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 1.8 2.0 15.3 14.6 0.86 0.91
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.1 2.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.02 0.12
Com parison Forecasts

CBO (Feb. '13) 1.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.9
O MB (July '13) 2.0 3.1 1.4 1.9
IMF (O ct. '13) 1.6 2.6 2.0 2.4 1.4 1.5
O ECD (May '13) 1.9 2.8 2.1 2.7 5.1 7.8 1.6 1.9
Government and Background Data Historical Data

President - Mr. Barack Obama (Democrat). Congress - Republicans * % change on previous year
2009 2010 2011 2012
have a majority with 233 seats in the House of Representatives (lower Gross Domestic Product* -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8
house) while the Democrats have a 2-seat majority in the Senate (upper Personal Consumption* -1.6 2.0 2.5 2.2
house). Next Elections - November 4, 2014 (Congressional); Novem- Business Investment* -15.6 2.5 7.6 7.3
ber 8, 2016 (Presidential and Congressional). Nominal GDP - Pre - Tax Corporate Profits* 8.4 25.0 7.9 7.0
US$15,684bn (2012). Population - 317.5mn (mid-year, 2012). Industrial Production* -11.3 5.7 3.4 3.6
Consumer Prices* -0.3 1.6 3.1 2.1
Producer Prices* -2.5 4.2 6.0 1.9
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts
Employment Costs* 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of
September 9, 2013 Auto & Light Truck
2013 2014 2015 Sales (inc. imports), mn 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Housing Starts, mn 0.55 0.59 0.61 0.78
Gross Domestic Unemployment Rate, % 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.1
Product 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1
Current Account, US$ bn -382 -449 -458 -440
Personal Federal Budget Balance,
Consumption 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8
fiscal years, US$ bn -1413 -1293 -1296 -1087
Consumer 3 mth Treasury Bill, % (end yr) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
Prices 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
10 Year Trsy Bond, % (end yr) 3.8 3.4 1.9 1.8
Percentage Change (year-on-year).

OCTOBER 2013 UNITED STATES
Year Annual Fiscal Years Rates on Survey Date Shutdown Overshadows Economic News
Average Total (Oct-Sep) 0.1% 2.7%
Federal 10 Year
The stalemate between Congressional Republicans and the
Unemploy- Current 3 month
Account Budget Treasury White House over the FY2014 budget precipitated a Federal
ment Treasury
Rate (%) (US$ bn) Balance Bill Rate (%) Bond government shutdown on October 1st (the start of the new
(US$ bn) Yield (%) fiscal year). This cut off our access to latest data tracking the
FY FY End End End End
2013 2014 2013 2014 progress of the US recovery. The face-off between polarized
12-13 13-14 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14
7.5 7.0 na na na na 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.8
legislators was triggered mainly by Republican opposition to
7.4 6.7 na na -561 -785 0.1 0.1 2.8 3.0 President Obamas healthcare law. The US hit its statutory
7.4 6.8 -457 -461 -625 -530 0.4 0.6 2.8 3.3 borrowing limit of US$16.7tn on May 19 and has since
7.4 6.7 -404 -352 -670 -595 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.8
7.5 7.0 -393 -424 -787 -725 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.9 employed extraordinary measures to cover spending. This
7.4 6.7 na na na na 0.1 0.3 2.9 3.4 debt ceiling would have to be raised going into the current
7.4 7.0 -405 -419 -650 -575 na na na na fiscal year, but Republican-controlled Congress wanted spend-
7.4 6.7 -394 -405 -650 -550 0.1 0.1 3.0 na
7.5 7.0 na na -700 -600 0.1 0.1 2.9 3.5 ing cuts in return and, as a result, targeted health-law
7.3 6.9 -363 -379 -667 -536 0.0 0.0 na na spending. In response, the Treasury warned that the US could
7.5 6.9 -404 -445 -599 -747 0.1 0.2 2.8 3.0 run out of funds by October 17, potentially launching a
7.4 6.6 -410 -416 -650 -500 0.1 0.1 2.9 3.3
7.5 6.8 -404 -417 -643 -554 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.1 technical default. At the eleventh hour, politicians managed
7.5 6.9 -435 -469 -676 -570 na na 2.8 3.5 to avoid this by reopening government and suspending the
7.5 7.3 -386 -358 na na 0.1 0.0 na na
debt ceiling until early next year. However, the shutdown
7.5 6.8 na na -650 na 0.1 0.1 3.0 3.6
7.5 6.9 -434 -455 -690 -640 0.1 0.3 3.0 3.4 underscores Washingtons dysfunctional body politic and has
7.5 7.0 -419 -390 -775 -750 0.0 0.2 2.8 3.0 severely dented confidence in policymakers. Worryingly, key
7.4 6.8 na na na na 0.1 0.1 3.0 3.3
7.4 6.9 -385 -384 -642 -632 na na 3.2 3.5
fiscal issues are again being postponed to a later date; tense
7.5 7.0 na na na na 0.1 0.1 3.0 3.2 negotiations on a new 2014 budget, for example, will be the
7.5 6.9 -396 -443 -650 -678 0.2 0.2 3.0 3.6 first order of business. This could push back the Feds
7.5 6.9 -398 -415 -600 -740 0.0 0.1 2.9 3.1
7.6 7.2 na na -645 -575 0.0 0.1 3.0 3.2 schedule for tapering QE. The Fed held off from such a move
7.4 6.9 -401 -478 -650 -550 na na na na in September and, in hindsight, that decision looks prescient.
7.5 7.2 -405 -401 -672 -662 0.0 0.1 2.8 3.4
7.5 7.1 -410 -425 -701 -731 0.1 0.1 2.8 3.0
7.4 6.8 na na na na 0.1 0.1 3.0 3.5 Production was flat in July but rose 0.4% (m-o-m) in August
7.5 7.0 -440 -460 na na 0.1 0.1 2.4 3.0 and soared y-o-y from 1.4% to 2.7%. Septembers ISM index
7.5 6.7 -423 -439 -575 -170 0.1 0.1 2.7 2.9 of manufacturing expanded to 56.2, from 55.7 in August. The
7.5 7.1 -392 -359 -684 -574 0.1 0.2 2.9 3.3
7.6 7.6 -386 -360 -700 -818 0.1 0.1 3.6 3.7 ISM survey of services, by contrast, noticeably faltered after
a very strong August, casting uncertainty over an already
7.5 6.9 -406 -415 -661 -616 0.1 0.2 2.8 3.2
opaque GDP outlook this month.
7.5 7.0 -419 -443 -669 -631 US Interest Rates (in %)
7.5 7.0 -441 -471 -709 -629 Fed ------ US Treasury securities1 ------
7.6 7.6 -363 -352 -561 -170 0.4 0.6 3.6 3.7
7.3 6.6 -457 -478 -787 -818 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.1
funds 2-year 10-year 30-year
0.1 0.2 21 38 51 132 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
Oct. 14, 2013 0.10% 0.35% 2.70% 3.74%
1 month ago 2 0.08% 0.45% 2.90% 3.84%
7.9 7.8 -845 -616
7.5 7.0 -759 -750 6 months ago 2
0.15% 0.24% 1.76% 2.91%
7.6 7.4 -452 -489
7.5 7.0 12 months ago 2
0.15% 0.27% 1.75% 2.96%
1 2
Nominal Treasury constant maturities. On survey date.
Direction of Trade 2012 2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
(% of Total) (% of Total) 2013
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Canada 18.9 China 19.0
2.9
Mexico 14.0 Canada 14.1
China 7.2 Mexico 12.0 2.8
Latin America 25.8 Asia (ex. Japan) 25.9
EU 17.2 Latin America 19.6 2.7
Asia (ex. Japan) 11.8 EU 16.7 2014 Real GDP
2.6
Growth
2.5 Forecasts (%)
Real Growth and Inflation
% (% change over previous year) 2.4
6 <Forecast>
5 2.3
4
3 2014 Consumer
2.2
2 Price Inflation
1 Forecasts (%)
0 2.1
-1
-2 2.0
-3
-4 1.9
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1.8
Real GDP (% chg yoy) Consumer Prices (% chg yoy)

JAPAN OCTOBER 2013
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual Total
Gross Private Business Industrial Consumer Domestic Total Cash New Car Housing
Domestic Consump- Investment Production Prices Corporate Earnings Registra- Starts
Product tion Goods (nominal) tions (mn) (mn)
Prices
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Toyota Motor Corporation 2.2 1.8 2.1 0.5 -0.9 3.5 na na 0.3 2.1 na na na na 2.9 2.7 na na
Daiwa Institute of Research 2.1 2.0 1.9 0.3 -0.9 6.0 -0.5 6.8 0.3 2.4 1.0 3.0 na na na na na na
Mizuho Securities 2.1 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.2 8.2 0.5 7.4 0.1 2.4 1.1 2.0 na na na na 0.97 0.95
Nippon Steel & Sumikin Rsrch 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.4 6.4 -0.9 3.6 0.2 1.9 1.1 2.2 -0.1 1.7 2.8 2.5 0.96 0.83
Credit Suisse 2.0 2.3 1.7 0.9 -0.6 4.5 0.4 4.0 0.3 2.1 na na na na na na na na
Merrill Lynch - Japan 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.9 -1.4 4.3 -0.6 3.9 0.1 2.3 na na na na na na na na
Mizuho Research Institute 2.0 1.6 2.0 0.3 -0.7 4.3 -0.2 3.3 0.2 2.1 1.3 3.0 0.1 0.3 na na 0.97 0.90
Econ Intelligence Unit 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.4 na na -0.7 3.8 0.2 2.0 1.4 2.4 na na 4.3 4.2 na na
JP Morgan - Japan 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.0 -0.7 4.8 -0.3 4.7 0.2 2.5 1.4 2.2 na na na na na na
ITOCHU Institute 1.9 1.6 1.9 0.2 -1.1 3.9 -0.2 3.7 0.1 2.4 1.3 3.4 0.2 0.1 2.9 2.3 0.97 0.86
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.7 -1.5 4.5 -0.1 4.7 0.3 2.8 1.1 4.3 na na na na na na
Citigroup Japan 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.4 -0.8 5.0 -0.2 4.1 0.1 2.1 na na na na na na na na
Goldman Sachs 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.0 -1.3 1.8 -0.6 3.7 0.2 2.3 1.4 3.5 na na na na na na
HSBC 1.9 1.3 1.7 0.3 -1.4 2.1 -2.2 1.6 0.1 1.9 1.3 3.1 0.3 1.1 na na na na
IHS Global Insight 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 -0.6 7.4 -1.0 6.1 0.1 2.7 1.1 2.6 na na na na 0.95 0.91
NLI Research Institute 1.9 1.3 1.8 0.5 -1.0 2.7 -0.3 3.1 0.2 2.3 1.3 3.2 0.2 1.4 na na 0.98 0.84
Japan Ctr for Econ Research 1.9 1.1 1.7 0.2 -0.7 4.1 -0.6 3.0 0.0 2.0 2.4 4.1 0.1 0.3 na na 0.98 0.85
Deutsche Securities 1.8 1.0 1.9 0.0 -1.7 0.8 0.2 4.6 0.2 2.7 0.6 4.8 0.4 1.7 na na 0.92 0.87
UBS 1.7 1.5 1.8 0.5 -1.4 1.1 -1.2 4.7 0.0 2.1 na na na na na na na na
Consensus (Mean) 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.6 -0.8 4.2 -0.5 4.3 0.2 2.3 1.3 3.1 0.2 0.9 3.2 2.9 0.96 0.87
Last Month's Mean 1.9 1.7 1.9 0.6 -1.1 4.0 -0.4 4.3 0.1 2.2 1.2 3.1 0.4 1.1 3.2 2.8 0.96 0.88
3 Months Ago 1.9 1.5 1.6 0.5 -1.0 4.0 0.6 3.9 0.0 2.1 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.9 3.1 2.9 0.95 0.89
High 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.4 8.2 0.5 7.4 0.3 2.8 2.4 4.8 0.4 1.7 4.3 4.2 0.98 0.95
Low 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.0 -1.7 0.8 -2.2 1.6 0.0 1.9 0.6 2.0 -0.1 0.1 2.8 2.3 0.92 0.83
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.0 0.6 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.02 0.04
Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Oct. '13) 2.0 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.0 2.9
OECD (May. '13) 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.0 -0.1 1.8

Prime Minister - Mr. Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
* % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
(LDP) was elected as Prime Minister in December 2012. Parliament -
President Abe's LDP won 294 of the 480 seats of the Lower House of Gross Domestic Product* -5.5 4.7 -0.6 2.0
Parliament and has formed a coalition with the minority party New Komeito Private Consumption* -0.7 2.8 0.5 2.4
Party. Next Elections - 2016 (parliamentary). Nominal GDP - 475.9tn Business Investment* -14.2 0.7 3.3 1.8
(2012). Population - 127.3mn (mid-year, 2012). Yen/$ Exchange Rate Industrial Production* -21.6 15.6 -2.6 0.2
- 79.80 (average, 2012).
Consumer Prices* -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0
Domestic Corporate Goods Prices* -5.3 -0.1 1.5 -0.9
Total Cash Earnings (nominal)* -4.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.6
September 9, 2013 New Car Registrations, mn 2.6 2.9 2.4 3.0
2013 2014 2015 Housing Starts, mn 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.88
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Unemployment Rate, % 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.4
Gross Domestic
Product 0.1 1.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.5 Current Account, tn 13.7 17.9 9.6 4.8
General Govt Budget Balance,
Private
Consumption 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.5 1.3 SNA basis, fisc. years, tn -42.9 -40.4 -42.3 -46.2 e
3 mth TIBOR, % (end yr) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
Consumer
Prices -0.6 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 0.6 10 Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8
Percentage Change (year-on-year). e = consensus estimate based on latest survey

OCTOBER 2013 JAPAN
Year Fiscal Years Rates on Survey Date Japan Sales Tax Rise Confirmed
Average Annual Total (Apr-Mar) 0.2% 0.7% The government took a small step forward in its plan to
Unemploy- Current General 3 month 10 Year reduce Japans debt burden after it proceeded with a much-
ment Account Government Yen TIBOR Govt Bond discussed sales tax increase earlier this month. The levy,
Rate (%) (tn) Budget Rate(%) Yield (%)
Balance (tn)
which will be implemented in April 2014, will increase from the
current 5% rate to 8%. This is the first major tax hike since
1997 when the economy faltered under muted consumption
and soft external demand. In order to avoid a repeat of that,
the government unveiled a 5tn stimulus package (to be
FY FY End End End End finalised in December 2013) alongside the tax hike which
2013 2014 2013 2014 13-14 14-15 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14
includes public works spending as well as tax breaks for
na na na na na na na na na na companies and homeowners. While this is slight progress,
4.1 3.9 7.3 12.2 na na 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 more radical structural reforms under Abes final arrow are
4.0 3.7 na na na na na na na na required to support Japans long-term growth prospects. Still,
4.0 3.4 5.8 12.7 na na 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.3
it is hoped that these measures will prevent the tax from
3.9 3.4 5.2 3.3 na na 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7
completely negating recent gains in growth and inflation.
3.9 3.2 6.0 8.0 na na na na 0.7 0.8
Indeed, the latest Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan survey
4.0 3.7 5.1 9.1 na na 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.1
showed widespread improvement in the corporate sector
4.0 3.8 na na na na na na na na
after the sentiment index jumped to +12 in September from
4.1 3.9 5.5 6.7 na na na na 0.7 0.9
+4 in June. On the output side, despite industrial production
4.0 3.9 5.7 9.3 -46.3 -43.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.5
na na 6.8 10.9 na na 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0
falling by 0.7% (m-o-m) in August following hefty gains in the
4.0 3.8 5.9 10.8 -47.3 -39.6 na na 0.6 0.7
previous month, there is still a clear upward trend in industry.
4.0 3.8 4.2 6.0 na na 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 For example, the PMI manufacturing headline index edged
4.0 3.7 5.1 6.7 -47.1 -34.7 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 up to 52.5 in September from 52.2 in August, marking the
3.8 4.0 6.3 4.2 na na 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 fastest pace since February 2011 and highlighting the firmer
4.0 3.8 7.0 8.8 -47.3 -43.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 economy backed by rising exports and domestic demand.
4.0 3.9 5.3 7.3 -43.1 -35.7 na na 0.8 1.0
4.0 3.8 7.7 14.1 -44.2 -34.0 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 August inflation saw its biggest annual rise since November
4.0 3.8 4.3 5.9 na na na na na na 2008 after increasing by 0.8% (y-o-y). However, much of the
gain was driven by the rising cost of imports as a result of the
4.0 3.7 5.8 8.5 -45.9 -38.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 steep depreciation in the yen. With this in mind, our panel still
expects only slight inflation of 0.2% this year.
4.0 3.7 6.0 8.6 -44.8 -38.4
4.0 3.8 5.2 8.5 -43.5 -37.8 Direction of Trade 2012
4.1 4.0 7.7 14.1 -43.1 -34.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5 Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers
3.8 3.2 4.2 3.3 -47.3 -43.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 (% of Total) (% of Total)
China 18.0 China 21.3
0.1 0.2 1.0 3.1 1.8 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
United States 17.7 United States 8.8
South Korea 7.7 Australia 6.4
Asia (inc. the above) 33.4 Asia (inc. the above) 36.1
4.2 4.3 EU 10.2 Middle East 19.2
4.2 4.1 Latin America 5.1 EU 9.4
Real Growth and Inflation 2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts
% Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
(% change over previous year)
5 % 2013
<Forecast> Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
4 2.3
3 2.2
2.1 2014 Consumer Price
2
2.0
Inflation Forecasts (%)
1
1.9
0
1.8
-1 1.7
-2 1.6
1.5
-3
1.4
-4 2014 Real GDP
1.3
Growth
-5
1.2 Forecasts (%)
-6 1.1
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1.0

GERMANY OCTOBER 2013
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Gross Private Machinery & Industrial Consumer Producer Negotiated
Domestic Consumption Equipment Production Prices Prices Wages and
Product Investment Salaries
Bruttoinlands- Privater Ausrstungs- Produktion im Preisindex Index fr Tariflohn- und
produkt Verbrauch investitionen Produzierenden fr die Erzeugerpreise -gehaltsniveau
Gewerbe Lebenshaltung
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Feri EuroRating 0.8 2.1 0.9 1.3 -0.7 6.3 -0.3 2.3 1.6 2.2 0.2 2.1 2.8 2.9
Allianz 0.7 2.1 0.9 1.5 -2.0 6.6 0.2 4.7 1.6 1.8 0.9 2.2 3.3 3.4
DZ Bank 0.6 2.0 0.9 1.4 -1.8 7.3 0.1 3.6 1.7 2.1 0.0 2.1 na na
Goldman Sachs 0.6 2.0 1.1 1.7 -2.4 2.5 0.1 3.3 1.8 2.0 na na na na
HSBC Trinkaus 0.6 1.7 1.1 1.4 -2.5 3.0 -0.4 3.8 1.7 1.8 0.4 1.4 3.1 3.0
MM Warburg 0.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 -2.1 4.5 0.0 2.1 1.4 1.6 0.5 1.5 2.7 2.5
Sal Oppenheim 0.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 -2.5 4.0 na na 1.5 1.9 na na na na
IFO - Munich Institute 0.6 1.9 0.8 1.1 -1.7 7.3 na na 1.6 1.9 na na na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 na na -0.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.6 na na
Bank of America - Merrill 0.5 1.4 1.0 1.4 na na 1.1 3.1 1.5 1.5 na na na na
Bank Julius Baer 0.5 1.7 1.2 1.8 0.2 5.9 0.2 3.3 1.6 2.5 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.0
BayernLB 0.5 1.5 0.9 1.2 -2.1 4.7 0.2 2.2 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.0
Citigroup 0.5 1.8 1.2 1.9 -2.4 3.1 na na 1.6 2.0 na na 2.4 2.3
Deutsche Bank 0.5 1.5 0.9 1.0 -2.5 4.1 -0.2 3.7 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.7 2.7
HWWI 0.5 1.7 0.9 1.1 -2.0 5.2 -0.1 3.0 1.5 1.9 0.0 1.5 3.2 3.3
IfW - Kiel Institute 0.5 1.8 0.9 1.4 -2.7 5.2 na na 1.6 2.1 na na 2.6 2.9
IHS Global Insight 0.5 1.8 1.1 1.7 -1.8 6.5 0.8 5.7 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.3 2.7 2.7
IW - Cologne Institute 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 -2.5 3.5 0.0 3.5 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.5
UBS 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.7 -2.6 3.2 0.6 3.0 1.7 1.6 0.3 1.2 na na
UniCredit 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.9 -1.8 3.5 na na 1.5 1.4 na na 2.9 2.8
Commerzbank 0.4 1.5 0.9 1.6 -2.6 4.9 0.3 2.3 1.6 2.2 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.0
DekaBank 0.4 1.7 0.9 1.5 -2.2 5.6 -1.2 3.0 1.5 2.1 na na 2.7 2.7
Helaba Frankfurt 0.4 1.7 1.0 1.3 -1.0 5.0 0.3 2.0 1.5 2.1 0.0 2.0 2.8 2.8
Landesbank Berlin 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.9 -2.4 4.1 -0.1 2.4 1.6 1.6 -0.1 0.7 2.8 2.7
RWI Essen 0.4 1.9 1.0 1.3 -2.4 7.0 na na 1.6 1.8 na na 3.1 3.1
Morgan Stanley 0.4 1.8 1.7 1.3 -3.4 3.9 -0.6 2.2 1.6 1.9 na na na na
WGZ Bank 0.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 -2.7 3.0 -0.5 2.5 1.5 1.6 0.2 0.5 2.8 2.6
BHF-Bank 0.2 1.7 0.7 0.9 -2.7 3.9 0.0 2.5 1.6 1.7 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.5
Consensus (Mean) 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.3 -2.1 4.8 0.0 3.0 1.6 1.9 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.8
Last Month's Mean 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.3 -2.0 5.2 0.3 3.0 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.6 2.8 2.8
3 Months Ago 0.4 1.6 0.9 1.2 -2.3 5.2 0.1 3.0 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.8 2.9 2.8
High 0.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 0.2 7.3 1.1 5.7 1.8 2.5 1.0 2.2 3.3 3.4
Low 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.9 -3.4 2.5 -1.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 -0.1 0.5 2.0 2.3
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3
Government (Apr. '13) 0.5 1.6 0.6 1.0 -2.2 5.6 1.7 1.9
Eur Commission (May '13) 0.4 1.8 0.8 1.4 -3.5 5.4 1.8 1.6
IMF (Oct '13) 0.5 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8
OECD (May '13) 0.4 1.9 1.0 2.2 1.6 2.0

Chancellor - Mrs. Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Party or CDU). * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
Parliament - After winning 255 seats in the 622-seat Bundestag (lower house),
Gross Domestic Product* -5.1 4.0 3.3 0.7
the CDU have entered talks with other parties in order to form a coalition
government. Next Elections - 2017 (Bundestag). Nominal GDP - Euro Private Consumption* 0.2 1.0 2.3 0.8
2,646bn (2012). Population - 82.8mn (mid-year 2012). $/Euro Exchange Machinery & Eqpt Investment* -22.7 10.0 5.8 -4.0
Rate - 1.286 (average, 2012). Industrial Production* -15.4 10.1 6.8 -0.4
Consumer Prices*
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.0
Producer Prices*
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of -4.2 1.5 5.2 1.6
September 9, 2013 Negotiated Wages & Salaries*
2.3 1.9 1.6 3.3
2013 2014 2015 Unemployment Rate, %
8.1 7.7 7.1 6.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Current Account, Euro bn
142 156 161 186
Gross Domestic General Govt. Budget Balance
Product -0.3 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
(Maastricht definition), Euro bn -73.7 -104 -22.0 2.4
Private 3 mth Euro, % (end yr)
Consumption 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.2
10 Yr German Govt Bond,
Consumer
Prices 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 % (end yr) 3.4 3.0 1.8 1.5

OCTOBER 2013 GERMANY
Year Annual Total Rates on Survey Date Signs of Recovery Mount as Merkel Wins Third Term
Average 0.2% 1.9%
Unemploy- Current General Govt 3 month 10 Year Aided by near record-low unemployment and her tough
Account Budget Bal German stance defending Germanys interests during the Euro area
ment (Maastricht)
Euro Govt Bond
Rate (%) (Euro bn) (Euro bn) Rate (%) Yield (%) crisis, Chancellor Angela Merkel secured a resounding
Arbeitslosen- Leistungs- Finanzierungs- 3 Monate Rendite von
victory in last months elections. However, her centre-right
quote, % der saldo des Staates Bundesan-
bilanz Euro
Erwerbspers.
insgesamt ( bn)
(Maastricht)
( bn) (%)
leihen, 10 party still requires a coalition partner in order to govern. As
Jahre (%)
End End End End political discussions progress, latest indicators suggest that
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14 the economy is benefiting from the Euro zones fledgling
6.8 6.6 191 195 -5.0 -0.8 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.4 recovery. Industrial production rebounded by 1.4% (m-o-m)
6.9 6.7 191 186 2.9 6.8 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.4 in August, confirming that earlier weakness stemming from
6.9 6.8 180 165 2.8 8.4 0.2 0.3 1.9 2.2
na na 173 167 na na na na na na an extended winter has now been overcome. The PMI for
6.8 6.6 178 174 2.0 3.0 0.1 0.1 1.9 2.0 manufacturing did edge down slightly to 51.5 in September,
6.9 6.8 190 195 3.0 2.0 0.3 0.5 1.6 1.9 even though it remained above the growth threshold of 50 for
6.9 6.9 na na na na 0.2 0.3 1.7 2.0
6.9 7.0 197 200 -5.1 -3.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.2
a third successive month. While the sector likely contributed
na na na na na na na na na na positively to Q3 activity, our panels 2013 production fore-
6.8 6.6 184 186 -3.9 0.5 na na na na cast has dropped to 0.0% this month. Meanwhile, GDP
6.9 6.8 na na na na 0.2 0.3 2.0 2.6 prospects received a boost after the IFO business climate
6.9 6.8 180 183 -3.0 5.0 0.3 0.5 2.1 2.3
6.8 6.9 188 166 -1.3 1.7 0.3 0.3 1.8 1.8 index rose to a 17-month high of 107.7 in September, buoyed
6.9 6.7 193 198 0.0 5.6 0.3 0.4 2.2 2.5 by an upturn in sentiment for the retail industry. Domestic
6.9 6.6 195 200 3.3 11.6 0.4 0.6 1.9 2.1 demand remains bolstered by a solid labour market and
6.8 6.6 na na 1.1 6.8 na na na na
6.9 6.8 182 171 3.2 -0.3 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.3
above-inflation wage growth. Indeed, retail sales advanced
6.8 6.5 na na -8.0 15.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 2.0 by 0.5% (m-o-m) in August following declines in June and
7.1 7.0 192 182 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.6 July. While the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to
6.9 6.8 160 155 0.0 -5.0 0.3 0.4 2.0 2.6
6.9% in September, this uptick was attributed to a shift in
6.8 6.4 209 208 -4.2 5.0 na na na na
6.8 6.7 185 194 -8.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 2.0 2.3 labour policies rather than deteriorating fundamentals. How-
6.8 6.5 190 195 0.0 10.0 0.4 0.5 2.0 2.4 ever, exports the cornerstone of German growth contin-
6.8 6.7 187 189 -5.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.0 ued to undershoot expectations in August, increasing by just
6.8 6.7 194 206 1.0 7.0 0.3 0.5 2.0 2.5
6.9 7.0 180 185 -0.2 3.0 na na na na 1.0% (m-o-m) after a surprise fall in July.
6.9 7.0 190 190 na na 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.9
6.8 6.7 180 200 -7.0 5.0 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.3 Inflation moderated to 1.4% (y-o-y) in September, further
6.9 6.7 186 187 -1.1 3.8 0.2 0.4 1.9 2.2
supporting consumption and enabling the ECB to continue
with its aggressively loose monetary policy.
6.9 6.7 186 186 -1.7 4.5
6.9 6.7 182 181 -3.2 2.8 Direction of Trade 2012
7.1 7.0 209 208 5.5 15.0 0.4 0.8 2.3 2.6 Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers
6.8 6.4 160 155 -8.2 -5.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.8 (% of Total) (% of Total)
0.1 0.2 10 14 4.0 4.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 France 10.1 Netherlands 14.1
United Kingdom 7.1 France 7.5
Netherlands 6.9 China 6.7
EU 60.8 EU 64.3
171 169
Eastern Europe 14.1 Eastern Europe 14.2
Asia (ex. Japan) 7.7 Asia (ex. Japan) 9.7
(% change over previous year) Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
% 2013
%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
5 2.1
<Forecast>
4 2014 Consumer
3 Price Inflation
2.0 Forecasts (%)
2
1
1.9
0
-1
-2 1.8
-3
2014 Real GDP
Growth
-4 Forecasts (%)
1.7
-5
-6
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1.6

FRANCE OCTOBER 2013
Gross Household Business Manufacturing Consumer Hourly

Domestic Consumption Investment Production Prices Wage Rates
Product
Produit Consommation Investissements Production Prix la Taux de Salaire

Intrieur Brut des Mnages des Entreprises Manufacturire Consommation Horaire
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
UBS 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.9 na na na na 1.0 1.0 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 na na na na 1.1 1.7 na na
Euler Hermes 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 -2.2 0.4 na na 1.2 1.6 na na
Exane 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.4 -2.0 2.8 -1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.5
HSBC 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.5 -1.9 1.7 -1.2 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.8
IHS Global Insight 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 -1.4 0.7 na na 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.8
OFCE 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.8 -2.1 1.7 na na 1.3 1.7 na na
PAIR Conseil 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 -2.0 1.0 -1.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 na na
UniCredit 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.7 -2.0 0.6 na na 1.0 1.9 1.8 2.0
Citigroup 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 -2.4 -0.1 -1.4 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6
Credit Agricole 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 -2.0 1.0 -1.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 na na
Barclays Capital 0.1 1.1 0.2 0.3 -2.2 2.6 na na 1.0 1.0 na na
BIPE 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 -2.3 -0.4 na na 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.6
Coe-Rexecode 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 -2.1 1.3 na na 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.7
GAMA 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 -2.0 0.7 na na 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.7
Oddo Securities 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.4 -2.3 0.7 -1.6 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6
Societe Generale 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 -2.2 1.1 na na 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.0
Total 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.7 -2.0 1.5 na na 1.1 1.4 na na
BNP Paribas 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.5 -2.1 1.9 na na 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.9
Bank of America - Merrill 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.5 na na -0.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 na na
Morgan Stanley 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.5 -2.2 0.8 -1.3 0.8 1.0 1.6 na na
Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.4 -2.5 0.2 -1.3 -0.7 1.1 1.5 na na
ING Financial Markets 0.0 1.1 0.3 1.2 -2.4 3.8 -2.2 4.0 1.1 1.9 na na
Natixis 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 -2.0 2.1 -1.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 na na
Consensus (Mean) 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.5 -2.1 1.2 -1.3 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.7
Last Month's Mean 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.5 -2.2 1.1 -1.2 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.7
3 Months Ago -0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.4 -2.5 0.8 -2.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7
High 0.3 1.3 0.4 1.2 -1.4 3.8 -0.8 4.0 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0
Low 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 -2.5 -0.4 -2.2 -0.7 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.5
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Government (Oct. '13) 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.8 -2.2 1.5 0.9 1.3
Eur Commission (May '13) -0.1 1.1 -0.1 0.9 1.2 1.7
IMF (Oct. '13) 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5
OECD (May '13) -0.3 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -2.3 0.7 1.1 1.0

President - Mr. Franois Hollande (Parti Socialiste). Prime Minister
- Mr. Jean-Marc Ayrault (Parti Socialiste). Parliament - The Socialists * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
currently have 278 out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. Next Gross Domestic Product* -3.1 1.6 2.0 0.0
Elections - Legislative first round: May 2017. Presidential first
round: April 2017. Nominal GDP - Euro2,032bn (2012). Population Household Consumption* 0.2 1.5 0.5 -0.4
- 63.9mn (mid-year, 2012). $/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.286 (average,
Business Investment* -13.6 6.2 3.1 -1.9
2012).
Manufacturing Production* -16.0 4.5 3.7 -3.3
Consumer Prices* 0.1 1.5 2.1 2.0
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts Hourly Wage Rates* 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.2
Unemployment Rate (ILO), % 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.8
September 9, 2013
2013 2014 2015 Current Account, Euro bn -25.1 -25.5 -35.2 -44.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 General Govt. Budget Balance
Gross Domestic
Product -0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 (Maastricht definition), Euro bn -142 -137 -105 -98.2
Household 3 mth Euro, % (end yr) 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.2
Consumption -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 10 Yr French Govt Bond,
Consumer % (end yr) 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.0
Prices 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6

OCTOBER 2013 FRANCE
Year Rates on Survey Date 2014 Budget in the Spotlight

Annual Total
Average 0.2% 2.5% In its newly-released 2014 budget, the government modified
Unemploy- Current General 3 month 10 Year its GDP forecast for next year from 1.2% to 0.9% in line with
ment Account Govt Budget Euro French our own panels expectations and indicated that the budget
Rate, ILO (Euro bn) Balance Rate (%) Govt Bond deficit would overshoot the 3%-of-GDP target by an extra
(%) (Maastricht) Yield (%)
(Euro bn) year. To be fair, France has experienced recession and
Taux de Solde Balance Taux Rendement austerity this year, making fiscal consolidation that much
Budgtaire d'intret des obligat-
Chmage, Courant (Maastricht) 3 mois ions d'Etat, harder. Policymakers have attempted to support the fledgling
BIT (%) ( md) ( md) Euro (%) 10 ans (%) recovery (which saw daylight in Q2 2013) by pushing the 3%
End End End End
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14
deficit limit to 2015 and gradually easing the pace of fiscal
10.6 11.0 -30.0 -29.2 -85.1 -81.3 0.2 0.2 2.8 3.0 tightening. The budget also aims to shift some of the burden
10.5 10.3 na na na na na na na na of consolidation away from corporate tax hikes and towards
10.4 10.2 -35.3 -34.0 -83.3 -80.2 na na na na public sector cuts. However, public sector unions are unlikely
10.7 11.1 -42.0 -38.0 -82.2 -70.2 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.6
10.5 10.5 -40.3 -44.5 -88.0 -85.0 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.5
to be thrilled by the cuts, while some business leaders
na na -45.9 -42.2 -81.4 -62.0 na na na na indicate that a tax rebate for firms that hire new workers does
10.5 10.7 -44.2 -45.0 -84.4 -73.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 3.5 little to offset regulation, social security contributions and a
10.6 11.0 -33.0 -22.5 -80.5 -75.8 0.2 0.3 2.5 2.4 new 1% tax on profits larger than 50mn. Households,
10.9 11.3 -41.0 -36.0 -82.0 -73.5 na na na na
10.6 10.7 -31.5 -15.9 -84.3 -72.9 0.3 0.4 2.5 2.7
meanwhile, could be facing a 75% marginal tax rate on
10.6 10.6 -47.9 -41.0 -84.8 -75.1 0.3 0.4 2.4 2.9 salaries higher than 1mn and VAT hike from 19.6% to 20%.
10.9 10.9 na na -82.4 -76.0 0.3 na na na Our panel does show the deficit narrowing next year, but a
10.6 11.0 -43.6 -42.6 -84.9 -73.0 0.2 0.2 2.6 2.8 still-sizeable public sector and declining tax receipts means
10.5 10.8 -31.8 -28.0 -85.1 -78.5 0.2 0.2 2.8 3.2
10.9 11.1 na na -81.0 -75.0 0.2 0.3 2.0 2.3 that funding these public commitments is a difficult task.
10.7 11.1 -35.4 -37.5 -88.8 -82.1 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.2
10.6 11.1 -36.0 -35.0 -85.0 -78.0 0.2 0.3 2.7 3.0 Manufacturing production rose by 0.3% (m-o-m) in August
10.6 10.8 -42.0 -38.0 -82.0 -75.0 0.2 0.3 2.4 2.5 following a 0.8% contraction in July, due in large part to a
10.7 11.3 -39.0 -40.0 -85.0 -76.0 0.2 0.3 2.3 2.4
na na -45.3 -38.3 -85.7 -77.1 na na na na 19.5% monthly surge in auto output. However, other sectors
10.5 10.8 -43.1 -46.9 -83.8 -77.7 na na na na were weak and in y-o-y terms, the decline in production
11.1 11.5 -43.5 -26.2 -82.4 -77.8 na na na na extended from -2.5% in July to -3.8%. Septembers manufac-
10.8 10.6 na na na na 0.3 0.5 2.6 2.6
turing PMI remains just below the 50 level, indicating that
10.6 10.8 -35.0 -27.0 -82.0 -74.0 na na na na
manufacturing still has some ways to go before it, too, climbs
10.7 10.9 -39.3 -35.4 -83.8 -75.9 0.2 0.3 2.5 2.8 out of recession. Lack of trade competitiveness is not helping
the 2013 production outlook which remains shaky.
10.7 10.9 -39.5 -35.9 -81.9 -74.8
10.8 11.0 -43.6 -38.5 -82.0 -74.6 Direction of Trade 2012
11.1 11.5 -30.0 -15.9 -80.5 -62.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 3.5 Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers
10.4 10.2 -47.9 -46.9 -88.8 -85.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.3 (% of Total) (% of Total)
0.2 0.3 5.4 8.2 2.1 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Germany 19.5
Germany 16.7
Belgium 7.5 Belgium 11.3
Italy 7.5 Italy 7.6
-38.5 -37.0
10.6 10.9 -32.2 -36.1 EU 60.1 EU 68.6
11.0 11.1 -82.2 -74.3 Eastern Europe 7.5 Eastern Europe 7.8
10.7 11.1 Asia (ex. Japan) 6.3 Asia (ex. Japan) 7.3
% Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
4.5 % 2013
4.0
1.9
3.5
2014 Consumer
3.0
1.7 Price Inflation
2.5 Forecasts (%)
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.3
0.5
0.0
-0.5 1.1
2014 Real GDP
-1.0 Growth
-1.5 0.9 Forecasts (%)
-2.0
-2.5 0.7
-3.0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0.5

UNITED KINGDOM OCTOBER 2013
Gross Household Gross Company Manufactur- Retail Consumer Output Average

Domestic Consump- Fixed Trading ing Prices (RPI- Prices Prices Weekly
Product tion Investment Profits Produc- X, underly- Index Earnings
tion ing rate) (HICP)
Deutsche Bank 1.5 2.5 1.6 1.8 -3.1 4.0 na na na na 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 na na na na
RBS Markets 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 -2.8 5.0 na na -0.3 1.4 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.9 3.0
UBS 1.5 2.3 1.7 2.3 -2.6 6.2 na na na na na na 2.7 2.7 na na 1.3 2.1
Experian 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.8 -2.7 6.5 na na -0.6 1.7 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.4 na na 1.5 2.8
Beacon Econ Forecasting 1.4 2.4 2.3 2.5 -1.0 8.2 na na -0.3 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.1 2.7 1.5 2.5
Citigroup 1.4 3.0 1.8 2.6 -2.9 9.5 8.1 10.2 -0.3 1.4 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.0 na na 1.2 1.4
Economic Perspectives 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.6 -2.1 5.9 5.0 -3.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.4 3.2 4.0 2.2 2.7
Goldman Sachs 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.1 -2.0 5.1 na na na na 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 na na 0.9 2.2
IHS Global Insight 1.4 2.4 1.9 2.3 -1.8 6.6 na na -0.4 2.3 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 1.8 2.3 1.4 2.5
ING Financial Markets 1.4 2.3 1.8 1.8 -1.6 7.8 na na -0.2 2.0 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.4 1.6 2.4
JP Morgan 1.4 3.0 1.7 1.4 -2.2 5.8 na na -0.5 2.1 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.3 na na na na
Societe Generale 1.4 2.2 1.6 1.9 -2.7 5.1 6.8 8.7 0.1 3.0 na na 2.6 2.9 2.0 2.5 1.3 2.0
Oxford Economics 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 -2.2 6.6 3.4 3.6 0.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.9 3.0
Econ Intelligence Unit 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 na na na na -0.3 1.0 na na 2.7 2.7 na na na na
Cambridge Econometrics 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 -2.8 5.2 na na -0.4 2.2 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 na na na na
Credit Suisse 1.3 2.5 1.6 1.7 -3.0 5.6 na na na na 3.1 3.3 2.6 2.4 na na na na
HSBC 1.3 2.2 1.6 1.6 -2.3 6.3 na na 0.3 5.4 na na 2.6 2.6 na na 1.4 2.3
Schroders 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.6 -2.7 3.9 na na -0.4 1.4 3.1 3.3 2.6 2.7 na na 1.7 2.1
Barclays Capital 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.9 -1.7 7.6 na na -0.4 2.2 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.4 na na 2.5 4.2
Nomura 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 -3.3 1.0 na na -0.8 0.5 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.4 1.4 2.3 1.1 2.1
Confed of British Industry 1.2 2.3 1.6 2.1 -3.2 6.8 na na -0.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.0 0.7 2.3
Liverpool Macro Research 1.2 2.2 na na na na na na na na 2.5 3.1 2.7 2.5 na na 2.2 2.6
ITEM Club 1.1 2.2 1.6 1.9 -3.5 6.9 5.2 5.0 -0.7 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.5 2.6
Consensus (Mean) 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.9 -2.5 6.0 5.7 4.9 -0.3 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.5 1.7 2.3 1.5 2.5
Last Month's Mean 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.7 -2.0 5.9 7.8 5.5 -0.4 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.8 2.4 1.4 2.5
3 Months Ago 1.0 1.7 1.2 1.5 -0.5 5.0 5.1 3.9 -0.5 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.8 2.4 1.4 2.4
High 1.5 3.0 2.3 2.6 -1.0 9.5 8.1 10.2 0.3 5.4 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.4 3.2 4.0 2.5 4.2
Low 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 -3.5 1.0 3.4 -3.0 -0.8 0.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.4
Treasury - OBR (Mar. '13) 0.6 1.8 0.5 1.2 2.2 6.7 2.8 2.4 1.4 2.7
Eur Commission (May '13) 0.6 1.7 0.8 1.3 1.8 4.5 2.8 2.5
IMF (Oct. '13) 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.9 -1.8 3.2 2.7 2.3
OECD (May '13) 0.8 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 4.1 2.8 2.4

Prime Minister - Mr. David Cameron (Conservative Party). Parliament * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
-The Conservative party has formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrat
Gross Domestic Product* -5.2 1.7 1.1 0.1
party, with a working majority in the 650-seat House of Commons (lower
house). Next Election - By May 2015 (general election). Nominal GDP Household Consumption* -3.6 1.0 -0.5 1.2
- 1,541bn (2012). Population - 62.8mn (mid-year, 2012). $/ Exchange Gross Fixed Investment* -16.7 2.8 -2.4 0.9
Rate - 1.580 (average, 2012). Company Trading Profits* -10.1 4.0 5.9 4.3
Manufacturing Production* -10.2 4.2 1.8 -1.7
Retail Prices (RPI-X underlying rate)* 2.0 4.8 5.3 3.2
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts Consumer Prices Index (HICP)* 2.2 3.3 4.5 2.8
Output Prices* 1.5 4.2 5.6 2.8
September 9, 2013
2013 2014 2015 Average Weekly Earnings* -0.1 2.4 2.4 1.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Unemployment Rate %(Claimant Count) 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8
Gross Domestic
Product Current Account, bn -20.1 -40.0 -22.5 -59.8
0.3 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1
Public Sector Net Borrowing (excl. financial interventions),
Household
Consumption 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 fiscal yrs, bn 158 140 118 81.3 *
3 mth Interbank, % (end yr) 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.5
Consumer
Prices (HICP) 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 10 Yr Gilt Yields, % (end yr) 4.0 3.6 2.1 2.0
Percentage Change (year-on-year). * Includes Royal Mail pension fund transfer of 28bn.
OCTOBER 2013 UNITED KINGDOM
Year Annual Total

Fiscal Years Rates on Survey Date Faster Growth, But Recovery Tentative
Average (Apr-Mar) 0.5% 2.8% GDP growth quickened to a three-year high of 0.7% (q-o-q)
Unemploy- Current Public Sec- 3 month 10 Year in Q2, aided by a jump in disposable personal income after
ment Account tor Net Interbank Gilt Yield
Rate (%) some workers deferred bonus payments until April to take
( bn) Borrowing Rate (%) (%)
(Claimant
( bn) advantage of a one-off tax cut. Household consumption
Count)
consequently boosted activity, advancing by 0.3% (q-o-q)
FY FY End End End End
2013 2014 2013 2014
13-14 14-15 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14 and by 1.8% (y-o-y). However, the surge in exports was less
na na -57.0 -54.0 na na 0.6 0.6 3.0 3.3
pronounced than initially estimated, translating into net trade
4.4 4.1 -49.0 -38.0 115 105 0.6 0.7 3.0 3.2 having no impact on quarterly growth. Gross fixed invest-
na na -48.5 -39.0 102 95 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.3 ment was also downgraded, from 1.7% (q-o-q) to 0.8%, and
4.6 4.2 -58.1 -50.0 112 95 0.5 0.5 2.8 3.0 continued to plummet in y-o-y terms, raising concerns about
4.3 3.8 -58.8 -51.7 98 94 na na 2.7 2.6 the sustainability of the recovery. Still, buoyant activity in the
4.5 4.3 -51.4 -48.1 96 79 0.5 0.6 2.9 3.2 services sector suggests that Q3 GDP growth (which will be
4.5 4.3 -45.0 -35.0 118 105 0.7 1.0 2.7 3.0 released on October 25) likely outstripped the 0.7% (q-o-q)
na na -49.8 -38.3 na na na na na na figure reported in Q2. A resurgent housing market helped the
4.4 4.0 -57.0 -47.0 105 95 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.8
4.5 4.4 -48.0 -42.0 110 95 0.5 0.5 2.9 3.6
services PMI register 60.3 in September, rounding off its
na na -60.0 -51.7 na na 0.5 0.5 na na strongest quarter since Q2 1997. Mortgage approvals rose to
4.4 4.2 -55.8 -47.6 120 110 0.5 0.5 3.0 3.2 a five-year high in August, and the government looked to
4.3 4.0 -58.0 -43.2 102 95 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.9 maintain this upward momentum by launching a new initia-
na na na na na na na na na na tive earlier this month aimed at getting people onto the
4.3 4.5 na na na na na na na na property ladder. However, house prices particularly in
na na -40.3 -25.2 na na 0.5 0.5 na na London and the South-East are rising markedly, and some
na na -32.9 -16.9 na na 0.5 0.6 3.0 2.4 observers fear that the scheme could induce another housing
4.6 4.5 -52.0 -54.0 93 87 0.5 0.6 2.9 3.0
market bubble. Elsewhere, industrial production unexpect-
na na -62.8 -54.4 101 85 0.5 na 2.8 na
na na -52.7 -27.1 104 84 0.5 0.6 2.9 3.1 edly contracted by 1.1% (m-o-m) in August, failing to mirror
4.4 4.1 -50.1 -44.7 106 93 na na na na the strength of recent business surveys.
4.5 4.2 -60.7 -62.9 120 106 na na na na
4.5 4.3 -50.7 -33.0 100 96 na na na na The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged on
October 9, although stubbornly high inflation and recent
4.4 4.2 -52.3 -43.0 106 95 0.5 0.6 2.9 3.0 broad-based gains in employment could bring forward a
possible hike in interest rates. The CPI edged down to 2.7%
4.5 4.4 -48.3 -42.8 108 96
(y-o-y) in August, from 2.8% in July.
4.7 4.7 -47.0 -42.2 109 98
4.6 4.5 -32.9 -16.9 120 110 0.7 1.0 3.2 3.6 UK Official Bank Rate Oct. 14, 2013 = 0.50%
4.3 3.8 -62.8 -62.9 93 79 0.5 0.5 2.7 2.4
0.1 0.2 7.2 11.2 9 8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 FORECASTS End Dec. End Mar. End June End Sep.
2013 2014 2014 2014
Consensus
120 108 Mean Average: 0.50% 0.50% 0.52% 0.58%
-42.3 -33.0 Mode (most
frequent forecast): 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
Direction of Trade 2012

2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
(% of Total) (% of Total) % 2013
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Germany 11.5 Germany 12.6
2.6
United States 10.5 China 8.0
Netherlands 9.0 Netherlands 7.5
EU 53.6 EU 49.2 2.4 2014 Consumer
Eastern Europe 5.6 Asia (ex. Japan) 12.1 Price Inflation
Asia (ex. Japan) 5.5 Eastern Europe 7.0 Forecasts (%)
2.2

%
6
(% change over previous year) 2.0
5
4
3 2014 Real GDP
2 1.8 Growth
1
0 Forecasts (%)
-1
-2
-3 1.6
-4
-5 <Forecast>
-6
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1.4

ITALY OCTOBER 2013
Gross Household Gross Industrial Consumer Producer Contractual

Domestic Consumption Fixed Production Prices Prices Hourly
Product Investment Earnings
Prodotto Consumi Investimenti Produzione Prezzi Prezzi alla Retribuzione

Interno Lordo delle Famiglie Fissi Lordi Industriale al Consumo Produzione Orarie
Contrattuali
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Confindustria -1.6 0.7 -2.8 -0.1 -5.4 1.2 na na 1.5 1.7 na na na na

Moody's Analytics -1.7 0.6 -2.2 0.7 -5.6 0.2 -2.8 1.7 1.3 1.9 -0.7 1.5 na na
Banca Nzle del Lavoro -1.7 0.5 -2.4 0.2 -4.9 2.1 -3.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 -0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4
Citigroup -1.7 0.1 -2.5 -0.7 -4.7 1.5 na na 1.6 1.3 na na na na
HSBC -1.7 0.5 -2.5 -0.1 -6.0 -0.4 -3.0 1.5 1.6 1.9 na na 1.5 1.5
ING Financial Markets -1.7 0.7 -2.8 -0.9 -5.4 0.6 na na 1.4 1.5 -0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4
UniCredit -1.7 0.6 -2.4 0.5 -5.4 1.4 na na 1.5 1.8 na na na na
ABI -1.7 0.8 -2.5 -0.1 -5.6 1.7 -4.0 1.5 1.3 1.6 -0.8 1.5 1.5 1.7
Bank of America - Merrill -1.7 -0.2 -2.7 -0.8 -7.0 -1.9 -2.9 0.7 1.3 1.4 na na na na
Econ Intelligence Unit -1.8 0.2 -3.0 0.1 -3.5 1.0 -2.7 0.2 1.2 0.7 -0.8 0.7 na na
Centro Europa Ricerche -1.8 0.7 -2.4 0.1 -5.2 0.1 na na 1.6 1.6 na na na na
Goldman Sachs -1.8 0.4 -2.5 0.3 -5.3 0.9 -3.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 na na na na
Prometeia -1.8 0.8 -2.4 0.0 -5.7 1.2 -3.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 -0.8 1.3 1.5 1.2
REF Ricerche -1.8 0.7 -2.2 0.4 -5.6 1.2 -4.3 na 1.3 1.4 -0.8 na 1.3 1.4
UBS -1.8 0.5 -2.4 0.3 -5.3 0.8 na na 1.5 1.7 -0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6
Intesa Sanpaolo -1.8 0.5 -2.5 0.2 -5.3 0.7 -3.6 0.5 1.4 2.0 -1.0 0.7 1.4 1.3
Consensus (Mean) -1.7 0.5 -2.5 0.0 -5.4 0.8 -3.4 1.1 1.4 1.6 -0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4
Last Month's Mean -1.7 0.5 -2.5 -0.1 -6.0 0.7 -3.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 -0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4
3 Months Ago -1.8 0.4 -2.5 0.0 -5.4 0.4 -3.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 -0.2 1.3 1.2 1.3
High -1.6 0.8 -2.2 0.7 -3.5 2.1 -2.7 1.7 1.6 2.0 -0.6 1.5 1.5 1.7
Low -1.8 -0.2 -3.0 -0.9 -7.0 -1.9 -4.3 0.2 1.2 0.7 -1.0 0.6 1.3 1.2
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2
Government (Sep. '13) -1.7 1.0
Eur Commission (May '13) -1.3 0.7 -2.0 0.4 -3.5 2.5 1.6 1.5
IMF (Oct. '13) -1.8 0.7 -2.4 0.2 -5.7 0.9 1.6 1.3
OECD (May '13) -1.8 0.4 -2.2 -0.4 -4.3 -1.4 1.6 1.2

Prime Minister - Mr. Enrico Letta. Parliament - A grand coalition with
representation from major right- and left-wing political parties as well as
Gross Domestic Product* -5.5 1.7 0.6 -2.6
technocrats was formed in April 2013. Next Elections - By 2018 Household Consumption* -1.6 1.5 -0.3 -4.2
(Parliamentary); 2020 (presidential). Nominal GDP - Euro1,566bn Gross Fixed Investment* -11.8 0.5 -1.6 -8.4
(2012). Population - 60.9mn (mid-year, 2012). $/Euro Exchange Rate Industrial Production* -18.7 6.7 1.1 -6.5
- 1.286 (average, 2012). Consumer Prices* 0.8 1.5 2.8 3.0
Producer Prices* -4.7 3.0 4.8 3.6
Contractual Hourly Earnings* 3.1 2.1 1.7 1.5
September 9, 2013 Unemployment Rate,% 7.8 8.4 8.4 10.7
2013 2014 2015 Current Account, Euro bn -30.2 -54.5 -48.3 -8.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic General Govt. Budget Balance
Product -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3
(Maastricht definition), Euro bn -83.6 -69.3 -60.0 -47.6
Household 3 mth Euro, % (end yr) 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.2
Consumption -3.4 -3.3 -1.9 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9
10 yr Italian Govt Bond,
Consumer 4.2 4.9 7.0 4.5
Prices 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.1 % (end yr)

OCTOBER 2013 ITALY
Year Rates on Survey Date Political Crisis Abates But Outlook Remains Gloomy
Annual Total
Average 0.2% 4.3% Financial markets were reassured after Italian Prime Minis-
Unemploy- Current General 3 month 10 Year ter Enrico Letta won a parliamentary vote of confidence on
Govt Italian
ment Account Budget Bal Euro October 2, securing the near-term future of his coalition
(Maastricht) Rate (%) Govt Bond
Rate (%) (Euro bn)
(Euro bn) Yield (%) government. However, recent downbeat indicators have
Tasso di Partite Indebit- Interessi Buoni cast doubt over expectations that the economy will exit
Disoccupaz- Correnti amento Euro Tri- del Tesoro recession before the end of 2013. The unemployment rate
netto
ione (%) ( mld) (Maastricht) mestrali (%) Decennali returned to a record-high of 12.2% in September and the
( mld) (%)
End End End End
outlook for the labour market darkened further on concerns
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14 that foreign investors could slash jobs to reduce costs.
Indeed, Spanish firm Telefnica raised its stake in Telecom
12.1 12.3 12.5 27.3 -47.4 -41.6 na na na na
Italia last month, increasing its influence over the indebted
12.1 12.2 10.7 23.8 na na 0.4 0.6 3.9 3.8
Italian phone company. The government has made youth
joblessness a priority, and worryingly, the unemployment
12.2 12.4 17.4 21.8 -55.9 -43.5 0.3 0.3 na na
rate amongst 15-24 year olds climbed to a massive 40.1%
12.1 11.8 na na na na 0.1 0.1 4.5 4.2
12.1 12.3 12.6 8.5 -47.1 -43.2 0.3 0.5 4.5 4.4
in September. The debilitated job market has impeded
consumer spending, preventing a recovery from gaining
12.1 12.2 8.1 17.6 -47.3 -39.7 0.2 0.4 4.3 4.1
much traction. The pace of decline in retail sales quickened
12.2 12.7 21.4 29.6 -50.2 -47.6 na na na na
to -0.3% (m-o-m) in July from -0.2% in June. On the back of
somewhat encouraging business surveys, industrial produc-
12.2 12.6 5.4 9.0 -49.0 -40.1 0.3 0.5 4.2 4.3
tion unexpectedly contracted by 1.1% (m-o-m) in July and by
12.2 12.3 na na -45.1 -33.1 na na na na
-0.3% in August, further dampening Q3 prospects. Exports
12.1 12.3 14.9 12.3 -47.4 -47.9 0.2 0.3 4.5 4.6 also began Q3 in disappointing fashion, declining by 2.3%
12.3 12.5 10.0 11.8 -49.7 -42.7 0.2 0.2 4.2 3.7 (m-o-m) in July, owing to weak demand from both EU and
12.2 12.6 na na -50.0 -46.2 0.2 0.2 4.4 4.1 non-EU countries. Still, a significant rise in export orders
12.0 12.2 7.5 4.0 -49.9 -42.0 0.2 0.2 4.3 4.2 helped the manufacturing PMI register 50.8 in September,
marking its third straight month above the neutral level of 50.
12.2 12.4 12.0 16.6 -49.0 -42.5 0.2 0.3 4.3 4.2 The production outlook has faltered this month, though.
12.2 12.4 12.7 16.7 -49.6 -41.2 After holding steady at 1.2% (y-o-y) for three months,
12.2 12.4 7.3 8.5 -48.7 -39.7 inflation eased to 0.9% in September, due mainly to a
12.4 12.7 21.4 29.6 -45.1 -33.1 0.4 0.6 4.5 4.6 slowdown in food and transport prices.
12.0 11.8 5.4 4.0 -55.9 -47.9 0.1 0.1 3.9 3.7 Direction of Trade 2012
0.1 0.2 4.8 8.7 2.8 4.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers
(% of Total) (% of Total)
Germany 12.8 Germany 15.7
France 11.3 France 8.9
11.8 12.2 15.0 18.0 United States 6.6 China 7.0
EU 54.7 EU 56.8
-50.5 -33.2
Eastern Europe 13.6 Eastern Europe 14.0
11.9 12.5 Middle East 5.1 Asia (ex. Japan) 10.3
% Real Growth and Inflation 2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
6 % 2013
5
1.8
4
1.6
3
2 1.4 2014 Consumer

Price Inflation
1 Forecasts (%)
1.2
0
1.0
-1
2014 Real GDP
-2 0.8
Growth
-3
Forecasts (%)
0.6
-4
0.4
-5
0.2
-6
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0.0

CANADA OCTOBER 2013
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual

Total
Gross Personal Machinery Net Operat- Housing
Industrial Consumer Industrial Average
Domestic Expendi- & Equip- Starts
ing Surplus: Production Prices Product Hourly
Product ture ment (thousand
Corporations Prices Earnings
Investment units)
Dpenses Investisse- Excdent Rmunr- Construc-
Produit de Con- Production Prix la Prix des tion de
sommation ment d'exploitation Consom- Produits ation Logements
Intrieur des Industrielle mises en
net: Horaire
Brut Mnages Productif mation Industriels
Moyenne chantier,
socits milliers
Conf Board of Canada 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.0 5.2 na na na na 1.1 2.1 na na na na 181 185
Royal Bank of Canada 1.8 2.7 2.2 2.5 1.0 4.9 -5.8 3.9 na na 1.0 1.8 na na na na 185 174
Desjardins 1.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 0.7 2.9 -3.6 5.1 na na 1.0 1.7 1.1 2.4 2.2 2.6 186 175
Econ Intelligence Unit 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.3 na na na na 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.6 0.6 1.8 na na na na
Economap 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.3 6.2 -4.0 5.0 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 185 180
EDC Economics 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.9 6.4 na na na na 1.4 1.8 na na na na 186 165
Toronto Dominion Bank 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 0.7 2.9 -5.7 5.1 na na 1.1 1.6 na na na na 184 179
CIBC World Markets 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.4 7.7 na na na na 1.1 2.0 na na na na 187 181
IHS Global Insight 1.7 2.5 2.2 2.5 0.8 3.9 -0.4 7.8 0.9 2.4 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 na na 185 183
Informetrica 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 0.5 4.0 -5.0 3.0 0.7 2.4 1.1 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 186 175
Scotia Economics 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.7 3.6 -5.6 6.0 0.8 2.1 1.2 1.8 na na na na 180 170
BMO Capital Markets 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.2 6.0 -5.0 3.0 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.4 185 180
Capital Economics 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.4 na na na na 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 2.0 2.0 185 150
JP Morgan 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.3 5.7 na na 0.7 1.9 1.2 1.9 1.1 2.6 na na na na
National Bank of Canada 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.7 4.6 -6.2 3.9 na na 1.1 1.7 na na na na 182 170
University of Toronto 1.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 0.6 4.9 -7.0 1.4 na na 1.0 1.6 na na na na 185 172
Consensus (Mean) 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.0 4.7 -4.8 4.4 0.9 2.1 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 184 174
Last Month's Mean 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.1 4.9 -5.2 4.8 0.5 2.1 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.6 183 173
3 Months Ago 1.7 2.3 1.8 2.1 1.9 6.0 -2.0 5.4 1.8 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.7 2.6 2.6 179 170
High 1.8 2.7 2.3 2.5 1.9 7.7 -0.4 7.8 1.6 2.4 1.4 2.1 1.1 2.6 2.3 2.6 187 185
Low 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.5 1.4 -7.0 1.4 0.7 1.9 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 180 150
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 2 9
IMF (Oct. '13) 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.1 1.6
OECD (May '13) 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.5 1.3 1.7

Prime Minister - Mr. Stephen Harper (Conservative). Government - * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
The Conservatives hold 167 out of 308 seats in parliament (155 seats Gross Domestic Product* -2.7 3.4 2.5 1.7
are needed for a clear majority). Next Election - by May 2015 (general
Personal Expenditure* 0.3 3.5 2.3 1.9
election). Nominal GDP - C$1,818bn (2012). Population - 34.8mn
Machinery & Eqpt Investment* -21.2 10.6 8.6 5.2
(mid-year, 2012). C$/$ Exchange Rate - 0.999 (average, 2012).
Net Operating Surplus: Corporations*-33.3 31.6 11.3 -4.9
Industrial Production* -11.0 6.0 3.9 0.9
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts Industrial Product Prices* -3.5 1.0 4.6 0.6
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of Average Hourly Earnings* 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0
September 9, 2013
Housing Starts, '000 units 149 190 194 215
2013 2014 2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Unemployment Rate, % 8.3 8.0 7.5 7.3
Gross Domestic Current Account, C$ bn -45.8 -58.4 -48.5 -62.2
Product 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6
Federal Govt Budget Balance,
Personal fiscal years, C$ bn -55.6 -33.4 -26.2 -21.5 e
Expenditure 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5
3 mth Trsy Bill, % (end yr) 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.9
Consumer
Prices 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0
10 Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr) 3.6 3.2 1.9 1.8
Percentage Change (year-on-year). e = consensus estimate based on latest survey

OCTOBER 2013 CANADA
Year Annual Total Fiscal Years Rates on Survey Date Quiet Growth
Average (Apr-Mar) 0.9% 2.6% Growth started Q3 on a relatively upbeat note. July output-
Unemploy - Current Federal 3 month 10 Year based GDP rebounded to +0.6% (m-o-m) after Junes 0.5%
ment Account Govt Budget Treasury Government decline, its fastest monthly pace in two years, as the impact
Rate (%) (C$ bn) Balance Bill Bond of Junes Alberta floods and Quebecs construction strike
(C$ bn) Rate (%) Yield (%)
dropped out of the equation. Services contributed to GDP but
Taux de Balance Balance Rendement Rendement
the goods-producing industries primarily drove activity. Not
Chmage Courante Budgtaire sur les Bons des Obligat-
(%) (C$ md) (C$ md) du Trsor de ions d'tat surprisingly, construction jumped by 1.9% (m-o-m) after the
3 mois % de 10 ans % previous months 2.1% collapse, and manufacturing rose by
FY FY End End End End 1.1% after a 1.0% fall in June. Manufacturing was supported
2013 2014 2013 2014
13-14 14-15 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14
by a 1.4% increase in durables output. Industrial production,
7.2 7.0 -56.0 -57.0 -14.4 -8.4 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.8 meanwhile, received a fillip from the energy sectors 0.5%
7.1 6.8 -49.5 -40.0 na na 1.0 1.4 2.8 3.3 gain, its second straight increase. Elsewhere, July was a
7.1 7.0 -59.0 -38.0 -15.0 -5.0 1.0 1.0 2.8 3.2 strong month for manufacturing sales (+1.7% m-o-m) al-
7.1 6.8 -59.5 -56.2 na na na na na na though new orders disappointed, falling by 1.7%. This could
7.1 6.8 -56.0 -50.0 -16.0 -7.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 3.0 point to some weakness in the sector in the coming months.
7.1 7.0 -53.0 -42.0 na na na na na na
7.1 6.9 -49.6 -44.1 na na 1.0 1.2 2.9 3.2 In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF modified its
7.1 6.8 -59.2 -48.6 na na 1.0 1.0 2.7 2.9 2013 GDP forecast from +1.7% to +1.6% (2014 remains
7.1 7.0 -53.7 -41.6 na na 1.0 1.2 2.8 3.0
unchanged at 2.2%, in line with our panels own projections).
7.0 6.9 -54.0 -52.0 -15.5 -6.5 1.0 1.2 2.7 3.3
The IMF cited concerns over weakening export demand.
Indeed, August trade hit a 20th straight month of deficit,
7.1 7.0 -56.0 -49.4 -18.0 -9.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 3.2
despite exports to the US reaching their highest level (C$30.1bn)
7.1 6.8 -58.0 -56.5 -19.0 -12.0 1.0 1.2 2.8 3.4
since 2011. Shaky foreign demand is hampering the trade
7.2 7.5 -58.2 -64.4 na na 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.8
outlook. On the upside, retail sales remain solid and Septem-
7.1 7.0 -59.1 -58.6 na na na na na na
ber housing starts surged to 193,600, from 184,000 in August.
7.1 6.9 -57.8 -50.9 -16.2 -9.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 3.3 Consumption is also being supported by upbeat job market
7.1 7.0 -57.5 -54.0 na na 1.0 1.1 2.7 3.3 fundamentals, including a drop in unemployment in Septem-
ber to 6.9%. Still, the IMF suggests that the government
7.1 6.9 -56.0 -50.2 -16.3 -8.1 1.0 1.1 2.7 3.1 pursue fiscal consolidation to help cushion against any future
shocks (like a hard landing in the housing sector, for exam-
7.1 7.0 -55.0 -49.3 -15.8 -7.5 ple). Consumption and housing start forecasts remain firm.
7.1 7.0 -54.2 -46.5 -16.6 -8.0
Canada Overnight Lending Rate Oct. 14, 2013 = 1.00%
7.2 7.5 -49.5 -38.0 -14.4 -5.0 1.0 1.4 2.9 3.4
7.0 6.8 -59.5 -64.4 -19.0 -12.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.8 End Dec. End Mar. End June End Sep.
FORECASTS
0.0 0.2 3.2 7.5 1.6 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2013 2014 2014 2014
Consensus
Mean Average: 1.00% 1.00% 1.01% 1.05%
7.1 7.1 -57.1 -59.1 Mode (most

frequent forecast): 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
7.1 6.9
Direction of Trade 2012 2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
Major Export Markets Major Import Suppliers 2013
(% of Total) (% of Total) % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
United States 74.5 United States 50.6 2.5
China 4.3 China 11.0
United Kingdom 4.1 Mexico 5.5 2.4
EU 8.5 Asia (ex. Japan) 14.0
Asia (ex. Japan) 6.0 EU 10.9 2014 Real GDP
2.3
Latin America 3.0 Latin America 9.0 Growth
Forecasts (%)
2.2
%
(% change over previous year) 2.1
6
<Forecast> 2014 Consumer
5 Price Inflation
4 2.0
3
Forecasts (%)
2
1.9
1
0
-1 1.8
-2
-3
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1.7

EURO ZONE OCTOBER 2013
The EURO ZONE is: Austria, Year

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Average
Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Fin-
land, France, Germany, Greece, Gross Private Gross Industrial Consumer Industrial Hourly Unemploy-
Govt
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Domestic Consump- Fixed Product- Prices Producer Labour ment
Con-
Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Product tion Invest- ion (HICP) Prices Costs Rate (%)
sumption
Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. ment Total
Credit Suisse -0.2 1.3 -0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 -2.9 3.8 -0.4 2.9 1.5 1.4 na na na na 12.1 12.2
ING -0.2 1.1 -0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 -3.6 1.3 -1.5 2.2 1.5 1.6 na na na na 11.9 11.7
BNP Paribas -0.3 1.1 -0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 -3.3 0.9 0.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 na na na na 12.3 12.8
G rupo Santander -0.3 1.1 -0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -3.4 2.3 na na 1.5 1.5 na na na na 12.2 12.3
Allianz -0.3 1.5 -0.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 -3.4 2.5 -0.7 2.3 1.5 1.5 0.3 2.0 na na 12.0 11.8
Citigroup -0.3 0.7 -0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -3.5 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.5 1.5 na na na na 12.2 12.3
European F'cast Netw ork -0.3 1.0 -0.5 0.7 0.0 0.1 -3.8 1.8 -0.7 1.1 1.5 1.4 na na 1.6 2.0 12.2 12.3
HSBC -0.3 0.8 -0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -3.9 0.5 -0.8 2.2 1.5 1.3 na na 2.1 1.9 12.1 12.0
Societe G enerale -0.3 0.6 -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 -3.7 0.1 na na 1.5 1.4 na na na na 12.2 12.7
UniCredit -0.3 1.0 -0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -3.7 1.4 na na 1.5 1.5 0.3 2.0 na na 12.2 12.3
JP Morgan -0.3 1.3 -0.6 0.8 0.2 0.7 -3.6 1.3 -0.7 2.5 1.5 1.2 na na na na 12.2 12.3
O xford Econom ics -0.3 1.0 -0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -3.6 1.5 -1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.1 1.4 na na 12.1 12.2
Intesa Sanpaolo -0.3 1.0 -0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 -3.2 1.9 -1.4 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.9 2.0 2.1 12.1 11.8
Nom ura -0.3 0.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 -4.0 -2.0 na na 1.4 1.3 na na na na 12.1 12.2
Credit Agricole -0.3 1.0 -0.8 0.6 0.0 -0.2 -3.7 1.3 na na 1.5 1.5 na na na na 12.3 12.5
Moody's Analytics -0.3 1.1 -0.6 1.0 0.3 0.3 -3.9 1.1 -0.8 1.8 1.5 1.7 0.0 1.4 na na 12.5 12.4
Bank of Am erica - Merrill -0.4 0.6 -0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -3.7 0.4 -0.5 1.8 1.4 1.2 na na na na 12.1 12.0
Com merzbank -0.4 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 -3.6 2.0 -0.6 2.6 1.5 1.5 0.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 12.0 11.8
Bank Julius Baer -0.4 1.1 -0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 -3.1 1.8 -0.9 3.3 1.4 1.3 0.0 -0.2 1.4 0.9 12.1 12.0
G oldm an Sachs -0.4 0.9 -1.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -4.2 -0.1 na na 1.5 1.5 na na na na 12.3 12.5
IHS Global Insight -0.4 0.8 -0.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 -3.5 1.7 -1.0 1.9 1.5 1.6 0.3 1.7 1.5 2.1 12.1 12.1
Natixis -0.4 0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 -3.6 1.0 na na 1.4 1.3 na na na na 12.1 12.3
UBS -0.4 1.1 -0.5 0.8 0.2 0.4 -3.5 1.8 na na 1.5 1.5 0.2 1.3 na na 12.2 12.3
BBVA -0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.6 -0.4 0.3 -3.6 2.3 na na 1.5 1.4 na na na na 12.2 12.3
Morgan Stanley -0.5 0.9 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -4.0 -0.3 na na 1.5 1.6 na na na na 12.1 12.3
ETLA -0.5 0.5 -0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.2 -3.0 1.7 -0.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 na na na na 12.1 12.0
Econ Intelligence Unit -0.5 0.7 -1.0 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -3.1 1.7 -1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.7 na na 12.2 12.2
Consensus (Mean) -0.3 0.9 -0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 -3.6 1.3 -0.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.2 1.4 1.8 1.9 12.1 12.2
Last Month's Mean -0.4 0.9 -0.6 0.5 0.0 0.1 -3.6 1.3 -0.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 12.2 12.3
3 Months Ago -0.6 0.8 -0.7 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -3.6 1.2 -0.7 2.1 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 12.3 12.4
High -0.2 1.5 -0.3 1.0 0.4 0.7 -2.9 3.8 0.0 3.3 1.5 1.7 0.4 2.0 2.3 2.5 12.5 12.8
Low -0.5 0.3 -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -4.2 -2.0 -1.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.0 -0.2 1.4 0.9 11.9 11.7
Com parison Forecasts

Eur Commission (May '13) -0.4 1.2 -0.9 0.7 0.0 0.5 -2.6 2.3 1.6 1.5 12.2 12.1
ECB - m idpoint (June '13) -0.6 1.1 -0.8 0.6 -0.1 0.6 -2.9 1.8 1.4 1.3
IMF (O ct. '13) -0.4 1.0 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -3.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 12.3 12.2
O ECD (May '13) -0.6 1.1 -0.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 -3.0 1.3 1.5 1.2 12.1 12.3
European Monetary Union Historical Data

Euro zone - The seventeen European countries (listed at the top of this
page) are united by a common currency (the euro), monetary policy and Gross Domestic Product* -4.4 1.9 1.6 -0.6
adherence to the Maastricht Treaty. Monetary Policy - is set by the Private Consumption* -0.9 1.0 0.3 -1.4
European Central Banks (ECB) governing board, headed by Mario Government Consumption* 2.6 0.6 -0.1 -0.5
Draghi. Nominal GDP - Euro 9,490bn (2012). Population - 331.4mn
(mid-year, 2012). $/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.286 (average, 2012). Gross Fixed Capital Formation* -12.7 -0.6 1.7 -3.8
Industrial Production* -15.1 7.3 3.2 -2.3
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts Industrial Producer Prices* -4.8 2.7 5.6 2.8
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of Hourly Labour Costs Total* 2.7 1.8 2.6 2.2
September 9, 2013
2013 2014 2015 Unemployment Rate, (%) 9.6 10.1 10.2 11.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Exports - Goods & Services* -12.3 11.4 6.7 2.7
Gross Domestic -10.8 9.8 4.6 -0.8
Product Imports - Goods & Services*
-1.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3
Current Account, Euro bn -13.5 3.5 14.9 122
Private
Consumption -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 General Govt. Budget Balance
(Maastricht definition), Euro bn -567 -569 -391 -353
Consumer
Prices 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 Money Supply, M3, end period* -0.2 1.1 1.7 3.5

OCTOBER 2013 EURO ZONE
Average % Change on Average % Recovery Weak, Fragile and Uneven

Annual Total Change on
Previous Calendar Year Prev. Year The ECB kept its main interest rate on hold on October 2. The
Exports of Imports of General Govt Money bank appears divided over whether to loosen monetary policy
Current Budget
Goods & Goods & Account Balance Supply, M3, while lending remains an issue. Inflation is notably below its
Services Services ( bn) (Maastricht) end period 2% target: Septembers flash estimate hit 1.1% (y-o-y), down
( bn)
from 1.3% in August and 1.6% in July. According to ECB
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
president Mario Draghi, this is due to softer energy and food
1.4 5.0 0.0 4.2 193 197 -278 -245 na na prices, last years indirect tax hikes falling out of the equation,
1.1 3.9 -0.1 3.5 na na na na 2.8 4.0 a firmer euro and still-weak activity. Despite a rebound in retail
1.3 3.7 0.2 3.0 225 225 -303 -242 na na sales and Septembers upbeat PMI reading (bolstered mainly
0.9 3.8 -0.3 3.4 140 80 -274 -233 na na
1.6 4.5 0.5 4.0 200 165 -280 -250 na na by services), Draghi emphasized We view the recovery... as
0.8 2.6 -0.4 2.0 242 224 -282 -238 na na weak, as fragile, as uneven, and that certainly also contrib-
1.4 5.8 0.4 6.0 na na na na na na utes to the outlook for price stability. With July production
1.1 3.2 -0.2 2.9 na na na na na na standing at -2.7% (y-o-y), our panel appears to agree.
0.8 3.4 -0.2 3.2 198 201 -311 -267 na na
1.6 4.7 0.3 4.5 na na na na na na Euro Zone Interest Rates
1.1 4.2 0.0 3.9 216 199 na na na na Forecasts are provided by a total of more than 80 panel-
1.1 3.7 -0.4 2.9 214 226 -271 -254 na na
1.3 4.3 0.0 4.3 192 207 -306 -297 2.3 2.8 lists for Germany (page 9), France (page 11), Italy (page
0.8 2.8 -0.6 1.7 na na na na na na 15), the Netherlands (page 20) and Spain (page 22). This
1.2 4.1 -0.1 3.7 219 226 -295 -250 na na allows the analysis of forecasts for different yields on
1.1 3.0 -0.3 2.8 81 -9 na na 1.9 3.8
0.9 4.8 -0.5 3.9 175 178 -284 -262 na na
individual country 10-year benchmark bonds. Forecasts
1.2 4.7 -1.0 4.1 200 200 -307 -250 2.0 3.0 for 3-month interest rates are all for the EURIBOR rate.
1.2 4.7 0.9 4.3 na na na na na na Actual ---- Consensus -----
-0.2 2.5 -1.2 1.3 122 137 na na na na Oct. 14, '13 End Jan. '14 End Oct. '14
1.5 3.7 0.1 3.6 202 185 -297 -251 2.1 4.2 Euribor, 3-mth, % 0.2 0.2 0.3
1.4 4.6 0.2 3.9 230 250 -292 -282 na na
German 10-yr
1.0 3.6 -0.2 3.4 192 316 -193 -128 2.6 1.4
1.0 3.8 -0.5 3.7 na na na na na na Govt Bond, % 1.9 1.9 2.2
0.8 3.2 -0.4 2.8 222 218 -297 -283 na na
2.2 2.7 0.8 4.2 na na na na na na
1.0 2.2 -0.3 2.0 na na -294 -255 na na Euro zone Refinancing Rate Oct. 14, 2013 = 0.50%
1.1 3.8 -0.1 3.5 192 190 -285 -249 2.3 3.2 End Dec. End Mar. End June End Sep.
FORECASTS
2013 2014 2014 2014
0.9 3.7 -0.4 3.4 177 167 -292 -259 2.6 3.3 Consensus
0.7 3.6 -0.9 3.0 157 165 -281 -243 2.9 3.3 Mean Average: 0.49% 0.49% 0.48% 0.48%
2.2 5.8 0.9 6.0 242 316 -193 -128 2.8 4.2
-0.2 2.2 -1.2 1.3 81 -9 -311 -297 1.9 1.4 Mode (most
0.4 0.9 0.5 1.0 41 69 27 37 0.4 1.0 frequent forecast): 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
2.2 4.9 0.5 4.7 241 261

Euro Exchange Rates
0.8 4.1 -0.7 3.8
Consensus forecasts from a survey of approximately 100
panellists are shown on page 27.
Euro Zone Economic Statistics 2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts
The source of all Historical Data (facing page) is Eurostat, with Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
the exception of the Current Account and the Money Supply, M3, 2013
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
which are from the European Central Bank. The base years and
statistics methodologies used by Eurostat may differ from those 1.8
used by individual Euro zone-member countries included in 2014 Consumer
1.7
Consensus Forecasts. Eurostat data is often drawn from the Price Inflation
national statistical agencies within the Euro zone but is adjusted 1.6 Forecasts (%)
to achieve standard classifications.
1.5
%
Real Growth and Inflation 1.4
4.0
3.0
<Forecast>
1.3
2.0
1.0
1.2
0.0 2014 Real GDP
-1.0
1.1
Growth
-2.0 Forecasts (%)
-3.0 1.0
-4.0
-5.0 0.9
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Real GDP (% chg yoy) Consumer Prices (% chg yoy) 0.8

NETHERLANDS OCTOBER 2013
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual Total Rates on Survey Date
General 0.2% 2.2%
Gross Private Gross Manufac- Con- Hourly Current Govt Bud
3 month 10 Year
Domestic Con- Fixed turing sumer Wages Account
(Manu- Bal Dutch
Product sumption Investment Produc- Prices facturing) ( bn) (Maastricht) Euro
tion Rate (%) Govt Bond
( bn) Yield (%)
End End End End
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14
ABN AMRO -1.1 0.4 -2.0 -1.0 -8.0 0.0 -0.5 2.0 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 60.5 61.0 -19.3 -19.5 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.8
UBS -1.1 1.1 -2.0 -0.2 -7.5 5.7 na na 2.8 1.5 na na 67.6 60.0 -20.4 -21.3 0.2 0.2 2.8 3.1
Feri EuroRating -1.2 0.5 -2.0 -0.1 -7.3 2.3 -1.3 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.3 2.1 58.0 53.1 -22.4 -22.5 0.3 0.8 2.3 3.2
Moody's Analytics -1.2 0.5 -1.5 -0.7 -9.2 0.1 na na 2.6 1.9 na na 64.4 66.4 na na 0.4 0.6 2.0 2.3
Nomura -1.2 0.2 -2.2 -1.5 -8.6 -0.5 na na na na na na na na na na 0.2 0.3 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit -1.2 0.4 -2.1 -0.9 -8.0 -2.0 na na 2.8 1.8 na na na na na na na na na na
Rabobank Nederland -1.3 0.0 -2.1 -1.5 -9.1 -1.1 na na 2.8 1.6 na na 75.2 82.1 -18.5 -20.4 0.2 0.3 2.3 2.6
ING -1.3 0.1 -2.0 -1.1 -8.7 0.5 -1.0 2.0 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 78.0 65.0 -19.9 -19.5 0.3 0.5 2.2 2.4
Theodoor Gilissen -1.3 0.8 -2.0 -0.7 -8.1 2.1 -1.0 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.3 2.1 na na -23.0 -21.0 0.2 0.4 2.1 2.6
Bank of America - Merrill -1.3 0.0 -2.1 -0.8 -8.8 -0.2 na na 2.5 1.7 na na 69.7 64.7 -20.4 -18.4 na na na na
NIBC -1.4 -0.2 -2.0 -0.6 -8.5 -1.0 -1.2 0.5 2.8 1.7 1.7 1.3 65.0 65.0 -20.0 -22.0 0.2 0.3 2.5 2.8
Consensus (Mean) -1.2 0.4 -2.0 -0.8 -8.3 0.5 -1.0 1.9 2.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 67.3 64.7 -20.5 -20.6 0.3 0.4 2.3 2.7
Last Month's Mean -1.2 0.3 -1.9 -0.7 -8.5 0.3 -1.0 1.8 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 66.3 65.1 -20.5 -20.8
3 Months Ago -1.1 0.4 -1.4 -0.5 -8.4 0.1 -1.3 1.0 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 57.5 54.9 -21.6 -21.6
High -1.1 1.1 -1.5 -0.1 -7.3 5.7 -0.5 2.6 2.8 1.9 1.7 2.1 78.0 82.1 -18.5 -18.4 0.4 0.8 2.8 3.2
Low -1.4 -0.2 -2.2 -1.5 -9.2 -2.0 -1.3 0.5 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 58.0 53.1 -23.0 -22.5 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.3
CPB (Oct. '13) -1.1 0.5 -2.1 -1.0 -8.9 1.8 2.8 2.1 59.9 62.2 -19.2 -20.5
Eur Commission (May '13) -0.8 0.9 -2.4 -0.1 -3.3 1.6 2.8 1.5 52.1 55.3
IMF (Oct. '13) -1.3 0.3 2.9 1.3 -17.9 -19.6
OECD (May '13) -0.9 0.7 -2.5 -0.1 -3.1 -0.1 2.7 1.5
The second estimate of Q2 GDP was upgraded slightly to Historical Data

-0.1% (q-o-q), although the economy remains in reces- * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
sion as tight credit conditions and political tensions over Gross Domestic Product* -3.7 1.5 1.0 -1.3
austerity policies hamper recovery prospects. The pace Private Consumption* -2.1 0.3 -1.1 -1.6
Gross Fixed Investment* -12.0 -7.4 6.1 -4.0
of decline in manufacturing production accelerated to Manufacturing Production* -8.7 7.0 3.3 -0.8
-2.3% (y-o-y) in August from -0.3% in July. However, the Consumer Prices* 1.2 1.3 2.3 2.5
jobless rate dipped to 8.6% over the same period, fuelling Hourly Wages (manufacturing)*
* 2.8 1.2 1.2 1.8
hopes of an upturn in consumer spending. Current Account, transactions
basis, Euro bn 29.7 43.3 56.8 56.5
General Govt. Budget Balance
Inflation cooled to a one-year low of 2.4% (y-o-y) in (Maastricht definition), Euro bn -32.1 -30.1 -27.0 -24.4
September, from 2.8% in August, driven by lower clothing 3 mth Euro, % (end yr) 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.2
and petrol prices. 10 Yr Dutch Govt Bond Yield,
% (end yr) 3.6 3.2 2.2 1.5
% (% change over previous year) Nominal GDP - Euro 599.7bn (2012). Popn - 16.7mn (mid-year,
5 Consumer 2012). $/Euro Exch. Rate - 1.286 (average, 2012).
<Forecast>
4 Prices
3
2 Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of
1 September 9, 2013
0 2013 2014 2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
-1 Gross Domestic
-2 Product -1.4 -2.0 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3
-3 Real GDP
-4 Consumer
Prices 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.6
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Percentage Change (year-on-year).
OCTOBER 2013 NORWAY
General 1.7% 3.0%
Gross Gross Manufac- Current
Domestic Private Fixed turing
Con- Wages & Account Govt
3 month 10 Year
Product Con- sumer Salaries (Nkr bn) Budget
Invest- Produc- Interbank Govt Bond
(Main- sumption Prices Balance
land) ment tion Rate (%) Yield (%)
(Nkr bn)
End End End End
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 Jan14 Oct14 Jan14 Oct14
Statistics Norway 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.3 5.4 4.0 na na 1.8 1.9 3.7 3.8 320 275 na na 1.8 1.9 na na
Feri EuroRating 2.2 2.8 2.5 3.3 7.2 5.4 4.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 3.9 3.8 368 382 391 390 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.9
Goldman Sachs 2.1 3.2 3.0 3.9 7.1 7.1 na na 2.0 1.9 na na na na na na na na na na
DNB 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 5.2 3.4 4.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 3.6 3.5 400 370 343 310 1.8 2.0 2.9 3.2
NHO Conf Nor Enterprise 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.8 5.0 3.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Nordea Markets 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 5.7 1.6 na na 2.2 1.6 3.6 3.7 336 391 340 380 na na na na
UBS 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.4 7.1 7.3 na na 2.2 2.0 na na 361 394 401 500 1.8 1.8 2.8 2.8
NYKredit 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 6.0 3.4 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Citigroup 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 na na na na 2.1 1.6 na na na na na na na na 2.9 2.9
Swedbank 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 4.3 0.6 4.4 3.0 2.2 2.0 4.0 3.8 336 350 369 326 1.7 1.7 3.0 3.1
Consensus (Mean) 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 5.9 4.0 4.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 3.8 3.7 354 360 369 381 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.0
Last Month's Mean 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 5.9 3.8 4.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 3.8 3.7 360 365 366 379
3 Months Ago 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.4 5.4 4.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.8 3.7 392 382 405 389
High 2.4 3.2 3.5 4.3 7.2 7.3 4.4 3.0 2.2 2.1 4.0 3.8 400 394 401 500 1.8 2.1 3.0 3.2
Low 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.2 4.3 0.6 4.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 3.6 3.5 320 275 340 310 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.8
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 29 45 28 75 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Bank of Norway (Oct. '13) 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.5 4.0
OECD (May '13) 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.7 5.9 6.4 1.3 1.7
GDP prospects have turned slightly gloomier this month Historical Data
after the labour market unexpectedly weakened and the * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
central bank indicated it would bring forward a planned GDP (Mainland)* - 1 .4 1 .5 2 .6 3 .3
Private Consumption* - 0 .1 3 .6 2 .5 3 .1
interest rate hike to summer 2014. The jobless rate rose Gross Fixed Investment* - 7 .5 - 8 .0 7 .5 8 .1
to 3.6% in the three months to August, hurting domestic Manufacturing Production* - 6 .4 2 .8 0 .9 2 .8
demand, as reflected in a relatively lacklustre 1.7% (y-o- Consumer Prices* 2 .2 2 .4 1 .3 0 .7
y) expansion in retail sales over the same period. Wages & Salaries per
Full-Time Employee (Total)* 5 .0 3 .1 4 .1 4 .0
Current Account, Nkr bn 279 303 351 412
Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged on Septem-
General Govt. Bud Bal, Nkr bn 251 283 368 402
ber 19 but signalled faster monetary tightening to combat 3 mth Interbank Rate,
record levels of household debt. The CPI fell to 2.8% (y- % (end year) 2 .2 2 .6 2 .9 1 .8
o-y) in September from 3.2% in August. 10 Yr Govt Bond Yield,
% (end year) 4 .2 3 .7 2 .4 2 .1
% (% change over previous year) Nominal GDP (total) - Nkr 2,907bn (2012). Population - 5.0mn (mid-
9
8
<Forecast> yr, 2012). Nkr/$ Exchange Rate - 5.818 (average, 2012).
7
6 Real Mainland GDP Quarterly Consensus Forecasts
4
September 9, 2013
3
2 2013 2014 2015
1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Consumer Gross Domestic Product
0 Prices (Mainland) 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
-1
-2 Consumer
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Prices 1.2 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9

SPAIN OCTOBER 2013
General 0.2% 4.3%
House- Gross Salary Current Govt Bud
Gross Industrial Con-
hold Fixed Cost per Account 3 month 10 Year
Domestic Produc- sumer Bal Spanish
Invest-
Product Con- tion Prices Hour ( bn) (Maastricht) Euro
Govt Bond
sumption ment Rate (%)
( bn) Yield (%)
End End End End
CEOE -1.2 0.8 -2.7 0.1 -5.9 -1.2 -2.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 na na 16.4 32.3 -71.7 -67.8 0.2 0.3 4.3 4.3
CEPREDE -1.2 0.9 -2.6 0.1 -6.2 -0.9 -4.2 -0.9 1.3 1.1 -0.1 0.2 10.4 20.7 -74.3 -71.2 0.4 0.6 5.1 5.8
FUNCAS -1.2 1.0 -2.6 0.3 -6.2 -2.1 -2.2 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.5 -0.2 18.8 30.7 -72.4 -62.6 0.2 0.4 4.1 4.0
La Caixa -1.2 0.8 -2.7 0.2 -6.5 -1.1 -2.1 2.1 1.7 1.4 0.0 0.8 18.0 24.7 -70.7 -64.8 0.2 0.2 4.4 3.9
AFI -1.3 0.5 -2.8 -0.6 -6.5 -1.0 na na 1.7 1.6 na na 9.2 15.5 -66.5 -59.9 0.2 0.3 4.6 4.2
Bankia -1.3 0.8 -2.7 -0.2 -6.7 -0.7 -1.5 na 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.3 8.2 20.6 na na 0.3 0.6 4.7 4.7
Citigroup -1.3 -0.2 -2.5 -0.1 -7.0 -2.7 na na 1.8 0.9 na na 13.3 19.2 -69.7 -61.5 0.3 0.3 na na
Grupo Santander -1.3 0.9 -2.6 0.5 -6.9 -1.2 na na 1.5 1.1 0.0 0.4 10.2 15.7 na na 0.3 0.4 4.0 4.4
Inst L R Klein (Gauss) -1.3 1.1 -3.0 0.4 -6.5 0.9 -2.9 2.0 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -0.2 13.5 24.9 -68.7 -62.4 0.2 0.3 4.4 4.5
UBS -1.3 0.4 -2.7 0.0 -7.3 -3.7 na na 1.9 1.7 na na 15.0 30.4 -68.4 -62.2 0.2 0.2 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit -1.3 0.2 -2.9 0.2 -6.5 -2.4 -3.2 -1.8 1.8 1.5 na na na na na na na na na na
BBVA -1.4 0.9 -2.7 -0.2 -6.2 1.1 na na 1.7 1.1 na na 10.0 18.4 -67.0 -60.6 0.3 0.4 4.1 4.4
IFL-Univers Carlos III -1.4 0.3 -2.7 0.5 -6.5 -1.8 -2.4 -1.9 1.5 1.3 na na na na na na na na na na
Bank of America - Merrill -1.4 0.4 -2.6 0.1 -6.7 -1.8 -2.3 0.1 1.5 1.3 na na 14.1 23.9 -73.7 -67.2 na na na na
IHS Global Insight -1.4 -0.3 -2.7 -0.4 -6.3 -1.4 -2.1 0.1 1.5 1.3 na na na na na na na na na na
Goldman Sachs -1.4 0.0 -2.7 -0.1 -6.5 -1.7 -5.5 -2.7 1.6 0.9 na na 12.2 22.1 -62.4 -44.9 na na na na
UniCredit -1.4 0.4 -2.8 0.0 -6.5 -1.1 na na 1.9 1.8 na na 10.4 22.0 -67.0 -59.0 na na na na
HSBC -1.5 0.1 -2.7 -0.1 -7.2 -3.7 -2.4 -0.6 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.6 na na na na 0.1 0.1 4.4 4.3
Consensus (Mean) -1.3 0.5 -2.7 0.0 -6.6 -1.5 -2.8 -0.1 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.3 12.8 22.9 -69.4 -62.0 0.2 0.3 4.4 4.5
Last Month's Mean -1.4 0.5 -2.7 0.0 -6.6 -1.4 -3.1 -0.2 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.2 13.1 23.6 -69.3 -62.3
3 Months Ago -1.6 0.3 -2.8 -0.3 -7.3 -1.8 -3.1 0.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.4 12.7 21.0 -67.0 -59.3
High -1.2 1.1 -2.5 0.5 -5.9 1.1 -1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.8 18.8 32.3 -62.4 -44.9 0.4 0.6 5.1 5.8
Low -1.5 -0.3 -3.0 -0.6 -7.3 -3.7 -5.5 -2.7 1.3 0.9 -0.4 -0.2 8.2 15.5 -74.3 -71.2 0.1 0.1 4.0 3.9
Eur Commission (May '13) -1.5 0.9 -3.1 -0.1 -7.6 -1.1 1.5 0.8 16.9 31.0
IMF (Oct. '13) -1.3 0.2 -2.8 -0.4 -7.3 -2.8 1.8 1.5 -68.3 -59.7
OECD (May '13) -1.7 0.4 -3.0 -1.5 -9.9 -2.9 1.5 0.4
Spain likely exited its two-year recession in Q3 on the Historical Data

back of rising exports and improvements in competitive- * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
ness, although a revival in consumer spending is still Gross Domestic Product* -3 .8 - 0 .2 0 .1 -1 .6
needed to drive a sustained recovery. Indeed, retail sales Household Consumption* -3 .8 0 .1 - 1 .2 -2 .8
Gross Fixed Investment* - 1 8 .0 - 5 .5 - 5 .4 -7 .0
plunged by 4.5% (y-o-y) in August following a 3.4% drop
Industrial Production* - 1 6 .2 0 .9 - 1 .8 -5 .9
in July. And while industrial production slumped by 4.0%
Consumer Prices* -0 .3 1 .8 3 .2 2 .4
(y-o-y) in August, our panel raised its 2013 forecast for the Salary Cost per Hour* 5 .3 1 .1 2 .1 0 .0
variable to -2.8% this month. Current Account, Euro bn - 5 0 . 5 - 4 7 .0 - 3 9 .8 - 1 1 . 5
General Govt. Budget Balance
Elsewhere, inflation tumbled to a near four-year low of (Maastricht definition), Euro bn - 1 1 7 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 -11 2
0.3% (y-o-y) in September, from 1.5% in August, as the 3 mth Euro, % (end yr) 0 .7 1 .0 1 .4 0 .2
effects of the September 2012 VAT hike faded. 10 Yr Spanish Govt Bond Yield,
% (end yr) 4 .0 5 .5 5 .1 5 .3
% (% change over previous year) Nominal GDP - Euro1,050bn (2012). Popn - 46.8mn (mid-year,
6 <Forecast> 2012). $/Euro Exch. Rate - 1.286 (average, 2012).
5 Consumer
4 Prices Quarterly Consensus Forecasts
2
September 9, 2013
1
2013 2014 2015
0
-1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic
-2 Product -2.0 -1.6 -1.3 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4
-3 Real GDP
-4 Consumer
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Prices 2.6 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6

OCTOBER 2013 SWEDEN
Mining & General 1.2% 2.5%
Gross House- Gross Hourly Current Govt
Manu- Con- Earnings Account 10 Year
Domestic hold Fixed Budget 3 month
Con- facturing sumer (Mining & Govt
Invest- Interbank
Product Produc- Prices Manuf.) (Skr bn) Balance Bond
sumption ment (Skr bn) Rate (%)
tion Yield (%)
End End End End
Economic Forecasters 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 20132014 2013 2014
Swedbank 1.6 3.2 2.5 3.4 -3.4 4.7 -2.5 4.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 2.9 239 244 -43.5 -41.9 1.3 1.9 2.8 3.1
Econ Intelligence Unit 1.3 2.4 1.9 2.4 -3.5 1.7 -2.7 2.3 0.0 1.4 na na na na na na na na na na
SE Banken 1.2 2.7 2.0 2.7 -3.0 3.0 na na 0.0 1.0 2.7 2.8 na na na na 1.0 1.0 2.8 3.0
UBS 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.4 -2.7 4.0 na na 0.1 1.2 na na 204 223 na na 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.4
Erik Penser Bank 1.1 3.3 2.2 3.4 -2.5 6.0 na na 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.7 225 220 -50.0 -45.0 1.3 1.4 2.8 2.9
National Institute - NIER 1.1 2.5 2.4 3.2 -2.6 5.0 -1.2 3.3 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.6 218 217 -49.0 -58.0 na na 2.5 2.9
SBAB Bank 1.1 2.4 1.8 2.1 -2.2 4.5 -1.0 3.0 0.1 1.3 2.5 3.0 200 220 -50.0 -70.0 1.4 1.8 2.8 3.3
Svenska Handelsbanken 1.1 3.2 2.1 2.8 -3.0 5.1 -3.3 2.4 0.0 1.1 2.7 2.9 201 185 -39.0 -45.0 1.2 1.5 2.6 2.7
Goldman Sachs 1.0 2.7 2.3 3.3 -2.2 6.0 -1.1 5.7 0.1 1.4 na na na na na na na na na na
Confed of Swed Enterprise 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.6 -2.0 3.1 -1.4 3.3 0.3 1.9 na na 250 247 na na 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9
Nordea 0.8 2.6 1.8 2.6 -3.5 2.9 na na 0.1 1.2 na na 224 238 -52.0 -53.0 1.0 1.3 2.4 3.2
NYKredit 0.8 2.6 2.0 2.7 -3.1 4.6 -3.1 4.3 0.1 1.5 na na 220 230 -43.0 -32.0 1.4 1.7 2.8 3.1
Citigroup 0.6 2.2 1.7 2.1 -3.2 3.0 na na 0.2 1.1 na na 242 244 na na na na 2.3 2.2
HSBC 0.5 2.2 1.7 1.4 -3.3 4.0 na na 0.2 1.6 na na na na na na 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.7
Consensus (Mean) 1.0 2.6 2.0 2.5 -2.9 4.1 -2.0 3.5 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.8 222 227 -46.6 -49.3 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.9
Last Month's Mean 1.2 2.6 2.2 2.5 -2.8 4.1 -1.5 3.9 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.8 233 236 -53.9 -51.6
3 Months Ago 1.4 2.5 2.2 2.4 -1.2 3.9 -0.3 4.4 0.2 1.4 2.6 2.8 252 253 -41.1 -41.1
High 1.6 3.3 2.5 3.4 -2.0 6.0 -1.0 5.7 0.3 1.9 2.8 3.0 250 247 -39.0 -32.0 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.3
Low 0.5 2.1 1.7 1.4 -3.5 1.7 -3.3 2.3 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.6 200 185 -52.0 -70.0 1.0 1.0 2.2 2.2
Standard Deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 18 19 4.8 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3
Riksbank (Sep. '13) 1.2 2.7 2.0 3.1 -2.7 5.2 0.1 1.3
Eur Commission (May '13) 1.5 2.5 1.8 2.6 1.4 3.9 0.9 1.4 257 277
IMF (Oct. '13) 0.9 2.3 0.2 1.6
OECD (May '13) 1.3 2.5 1.9 3.0 0.8 3.1 0.2 1.3
Growth forecasts have been slashed this month after Q2 Historical Data
GDP was downgraded to -0.2% (q-o-q) and by 0.1% (y-o- * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gross Domestic Product* - 5 .0 6 .3 3 .0 1 .3
y). Latest indicators suggest that weakness continued
Household Consumption* - 0 .2 3 .9 1 .7 1 .7
into Q3, with industrial production unexpectedly contract- Gross Fixed Investment* - 1 5 .5 6 .7 8 .3 3 .6
ing by 2.3% (m-o-m) in August. Moreover, the seasonally- Min. & Manufacturing Prodn* - 1 9 . 6 8 .7 6 .9 - 3 .1
adjusted jobless rate climbed by 0.2%-points to 8.0% in Consumer Prices* - 0 .3 1 .3 2 .6 0 .9
August, dampening hopes of a consumer-led recovery. Average Hourly Earnings
(Mining & Manufacturing)* 2 .0 3 .2 2 .8 3 .7
Current Account, Skr bn 195 212 222 212
The CPI remained at +0.1% (y-o-y) in September. How- General Govt. Bud Bal, Skr bn - 3 0 . 4 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 1 4 .3
ever, the central bank held its repo rate at 1.0% last month 3 mth Interbank Rate,
and indicated that it would tighten monetary policy late % (end yr) 0 .5 2 .0 2 .6 1 .3
next year in order to cool an overheated housing market. 10 Yr Govt Bond Yield,
% (end yr) 3 .4 3 .3 1 .6 1 .5
% Real Growth and Inflation

(% change over previous year) Nominal GDP - Skr 3,562bn (2012). Population - 9.5mn (mid-
7 year, 2012). Skr/$ Exchange Rate - 6.775 (average, 2012).
<Forecast>
5
3
1 September 9, 2013
2013 2014 2015
-1 Consumer
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Prices Real Gross Domestic
-3
GDP Product 1.6 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6
-5
Consumer
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Prices -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

SWITZERLAND OCTOBER 2013
General -0.1% 1.0%
Gross Private Gross Industrial Con- Merchan- Current Govt 3 month
dise 10 Year
Domestic Consump- Fixed Produc- sumer Exports Account Budget Euro- Govt Bond
Product tion Invest- tion Prices (SwFr bn) (SwFr bn) Balance Franc Rate Yield (%)
ment (SwFr bn) (%)
End End End End
Bank Vontobel 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.0 2.2 na na -0.1 0.9 na na 80.0 90.0 3.7 3.5 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.2
IHS Global Insight 1.9 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.3 4.1 1.9 5.2 -0.2 0.5 202 212 74.4 72.5 1.3 2.3 -0.1 0.0 1.1 1.2
BAK Basel 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.9 0.9 2.6 0.7 2.9 -0.2 0.5 201 215 75.3 84.1 1.2 3.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4
KOF Swiss Econ Inst 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.0 1.4 4.1 na na -0.2 0.5 200 210 70.7 75.5 0.3 1.4 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4
Bank Julius Baer 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.2 3.5 0.8 2.5 -0.2 0.8 205 217 71.3 72.6 3.9 6.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6
Credit Suisse 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 3.2 na na -0.1 0.6 na na na na na na 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.4
Goldman Sachs 1.8 1.4 2.3 1.5 0.8 1.6 na na -0.3 0.9 na na 82.6 81.0 4.8 5.6 na na na na
HSBC 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.0 0.6 2.0 na na -0.1 0.5 na na na na na na 0.0 0.0 na na
Pictet & Cie 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.0 2.0 na na -0.2 0.5 na na 70.0 72.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8
Swiss Life 1.8 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.3 2.9 na na -0.2 0.6 na na na na na na na na na na
UBS 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.9 3.2 na na -0.2 0.7 na na na na na na 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.6
Citigroup 1.7 1.5 2.4 1.6 0.0 -0.1 na na -0.2 0.3 na na 78.8 81.6 3.9 5.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Zrcher Kantonalbank 1.7 1.8 2.6 1.9 0.6 3.0 3.4 5.1 -0.2 0.5 207 218 75.5 81.8 1.7 2.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4
Institut Crea 1.6 2.5 2.4 1.8 -0.5 2.6 na na -0.3 0.3 195 203 75.8 88.8 2.5 3.9 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.4
Econ Intelligence Unit 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.1 0.0 1.7 0.7 3.1 -0.4 0.3 na na na na na na na na na na
Consensus (Mean) 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.8 2.6 1.5 3.7 -0.2 0.6 202 212 75.4 80.0 2.6 3.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4
Last Month's Mean 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.7 2.7 1.6 4.2 -0.2 0.6 202 212 78.5 83.3 2.6 3.5
3 Months Ago 1.4 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.3 2.5 1.7 3.1 -0.3 0.6 203 212 79.9 81.7 2.6 3.4
High 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.4 4.1 3.4 5.2 -0.1 0.9 207 218 82.6 90.0 4.8 6.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.8
Low 1.5 1.4 2.3 1.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 2.5 -0.4 0.3 195 203 70.0 72.0 0.3 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.9 1.0
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 0.2 4 6 4.1 6.6 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2
IMF (Oct. '13) 1.7 1.8 -0.2 0.2
OECD (May '13) 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.2 2.4 -0.3 0.2
SECO (Sep. '13) 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.0 -0.1 0.3
Our panel has upgraded its 2013 GDP forecast this month, Historical Data
with robust consumer spending and an upturn in external * % change on previous year 2009 2010 2011 2012
demand predicted to drive growth. Retail sales surpassed Gross Domestic Product* -1 . 9 3.0 1.8 1 .0
Private Consumption* 1.8 1.7 1.1 2 .4
expectations in August, advancing by +2.4% (y-o-y).
Gross Fixed Investment* -8 . 0 4.8 4.5 -0 . 4
Moreover, the KOF index a barometer of the economys Industrial Production* -8 . 0 6.4 0.8 1 .9 e
performance in six months time rose to a ten-month high Consumer Prices* -0 . 5 0.7 0.2 -0 . 7
in September, aided by an upturn in Euro zone activity. Merch Exports, SwFr bn 181 193 198 201
Current Account, SwFr bn 58.5 84.4 52.5 66 .3
The CPI dipped to -0.1% (y-o-y) in September, from 0.0% General Govt. Bud. Bal. SwFr bn 1 0 . 5 2.5 2.6 2 .9 e
in August, and SNB President Thomas Jordan confirmed 3 mth Euro-Franc Rate,
% (end yr) 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0 . 1
last month that the 1.20SwFr/euro currency cap remains
10 Yr Govt Bond Yield,
a crucial monetary policy tool. % (end yr) 2.0 1.7 0.7 0 .5
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
% Nominal GDP - SwFr 593bn (2012). Population - 8.0mn (mid-
4 year, 2012). SwFr/$ Exchange Rate - 0.938 (average, 2012).
<Forecast>
3
2
1 September 9, 2013
2013 2014 2015
0
Consumer Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Prices Gross Domestic
-1 Product 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2
Real GDP
-2 Consumer
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Prices -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

OCTOBER 2013 ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
Forecasts for the countries in Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa shown on the next two pages were provided by the
following leading economic forecasters, among others:
Bank Leumi Bank of America Merrill Citigroup

Danske Bank Economist Intelligence Unit Experian
Fitch Ratings Forecaster ECOSA ING
Moodys Analytics Nomura NYKredit
Oxford Economics
AUSTRIA Population - 8.5mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$399.7bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -3.8 1.8 2.8 0.9 0.4 1.6
Industrial Production (% change on previous year) -11.2 7.3 6.0 3.2 0.6 2.5
Consumer Prices (% change on previous year) 0.5 1.8 3.3 2.4 2.2 1.8
Current Account (US Dollar bn) 10.4 12.9 5.7 7.0 10.3 11.0
BELGIUM Population - 11.1mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$484.8bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -2.8 2.4 1.9 -0.3 0.0 0.9
Industrial Production (% change on previous year) -10.2 11.2 4.2 -3.1 -0.6 1.6
Consumer Prices (% change on previous year) -0.1 2.2 3.5 2.8 1.2 1.7
Current Account (US Dollar bn) -3.0 9.1 -5.7 -9.7 -6.3 -2.3
DENMARK Population - 5.6mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$314.2bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -5.7 1.6 1.1 -0.4 0.3 1.4
Manufacturing Production (% change on previous year) -17.2 2.4 4.6 0.8 1.6 1.6
EGYPT Population - 80.7mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$249.7bn (2012)1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)1 4.7 5.1 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.0
Current Account (US Dollar bn) -3.2 -5.6 -7.6 -7.6 -4.8 -6.3
1
year(s) ending June 30
FINLAND Population - 5.4mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$250.1bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -8.5 3.4 2.7 -0.8 -0.6 1.3
Current Account (US Dollar bn) 4.2 3.6 -3.9 -4.6 -2.8 -2.4
GREECE Population - 11.1mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$249.1bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -3.1 -4.9 -7.1 -6.4 -4.0 -0.6
Industrial Production (% change on previous year) -9.4 -5.9 -7.7 -3.5 -1.9 0.5
Consumer Prices (% change on previous year) 1.2 4.7 3.3 1.5 -0.6 -0.5

ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES OCTOBER 2013
IRELAND Population - 4.6mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$210.4bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -6.4 -1.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 1.9
Consumer Prices (% change on previous year) -4.4 -1.0 2.6 1.7 0.8 1.1
Current Account (US Dollar bn) -5.2 2.4 2.8 9.3 9.7 10.1
ISRAEL Population - 7.6mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$242.5bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) 1.2 5.7 4.6 3.4 3.5 3.4
Industrial Production (% change on previous year) -7.6 11.3 1.9 4.0 3.4 3.8
NIGERIA Popn - 168.8mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$262.6bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Current Account (US Dollar bn) 14.0 13.4 8.8 15.8 e 10.9 4.8
PORTUGAL Population - 10.6mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$212.7bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -2.9 1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -1.9 0.1
Industrial Production (% change on previous year) -8.1 1.5 -1.9 -5.0 1.1 0.9
Consumer Prices (% change on previous year) -0.8 1.4 3.7 2.8 0.5 0.6
Current Account (US Dollar bn) -25.6 -24.2 -16.7 -3.3 0.8 2.1
SAUDI ARABIA Popn - 28.3mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$727.2bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Current Account (US Dollar bn) 21.0 66.8 159 165 121 99.8
SOUTH AFRICA Popn - 52.4mn (2012, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$384.3bn (2012) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year) -1.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 2.1 2.9
Manufacturing Production (% change on previous year) -13.8 4.6 2.7 2.4 2.3 3.3

OCTOBER 2013 FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTS
Foreign Exchange Rates

1
All US$ rates are amounts of
Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
currency per dollar, except the
UK pound and the euro which are Latest
reciprocals. A positive (+) sign Rates at end of: Spot Forecast Percent Forecast Percent Forecast Percent
for the % change implies an ap- Rate End Jan. Change End Oct. Change End Oct. Change
preciation of the currency against
the US Dollar and vice versa. 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Oct. 14) 2014 2014 2015
Rates per US Dollar1

Canadian Dollar 1.047 1.001 1.021 0.996 1.035 1.032 +0.2 1.042 -0.7 1.044 -0.9
Egyptian Pound 5.475 5.793 6.017 6.189 6.890 6.961 -1.0 6.992 -1.5 7.190 -4.2
European Euro 1.441 1.336 1.294 1.318 1.359 1.314 -3.3 1.279 -5.8 1.269 -6.6
Israeli Shekel 3.775 3.549 3.821 3.731 3.532 3.577 -1.3 3.609 -2.1 3.809 -7.3
Japanese Yen 92.06 81.45 77.72 86.47 98.12 101.0 -2.9 104.5 -6.1 106.9 -8.2
Nigerian Naira 149.6 150.7 158.3 156.0 160.1 161.0 -0.6 164.4 -2.6 168.5 -5.0
Saudi Arabian Riyal 3.750 3.750 3.750 3.750 3.750 3.750 0.0 3.750 0.0 3.750 0.0
South African Rand 7.380 6.632 8.143 8.484 9.959 9.873 +0.9 9.884 +0.8 9.580 +4.0
United Kingdom Pound 1.620 1.566 1.546 1.626 1.602 1.572 -1.8 1.545 -3.5 1.540 -3.8
Rates per Euro

Danish Krone 7.479 7.499 7.435 7.461 7.459 7.458 0.0 7.457 0.0 7.456 0.0
Norwegian Krone 8.329 7.829 7.750 7.337 8.117 7.786 +4.2 7.608 +6.7 7.643 +6.2
Swedish Krona 10.25 8.964 8.913 8.577 8.774 8.558 +2.5 8.419 +4.2 8.477 +3.5
Swiss Franc 1.485 1.255 1.218 1.207 1.233 1.246 -1.1 1.258 -2.0 1.252 -1.6
Yen per US$ US$ per Euro1 US$ per UK Pound
70.0 1.600 2.10

2.05
80.0 1.500 2.00
1.95
90.0 1.400 1.90
1.85
100.0 1.300 1.80
1.75
110.0 1.200 1.70
1.65
120.0 1.100 1.60
1.55
130.0 1.000 1.50
1.45
140.0 0.900 1.40
1.35
150.0
0.800 1.30
Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
1
historical rates up to January 1, 1999, are calculated
as "synthetic" euro exchange rates based on a weighted
average of the eleven original component currencies.
OCTOBER 2013 OIL PRICES
Brent, US$ per barrel Brent-WTI Spread Widens

Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have moderated from
Range 1990-2013 9.10 - 143.95 highs of US$117.15 and US$110.62 on September 6 to below
Spot Rate (Oct. 14) 111.04
the US$110-mark for Brent. The US government shutdown,
Brent Forecast for though, pushed up Brent futures to US$111.04 on October 14
October Survey End Jan. End Oct. as foreign investors moved money away from US assets and
2014 2014 towards the dollar-denominated commodity. Indeed, the spread
between Brent and WTI which narrowed over the summer
Mean Forecast 108.1 107.0 has widened in the past two weeks as the budget crisis weighs
High more on the domestic WTI contract. For its part, Brent has been
118.0 118.0
Low 99.0 95.0 lifted by ongoing concerns over Syrias civil war and Libyan out-
Standard Deviation 3.7 5.4 put reductions. Elsewhere, Chinese exports fell unexpectedly in
No. of Forecasts September, but a rebound in oil imports bodes well for Chinese
66 67
demand for the commodity.
LONG-TERM FORECASTS OCTOBER 2013
continued from page 3
France
* % change over previous year2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Household Consumption* 0.2 1.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5
Business Investment* -13.6 6.2 3.1 -1.9 -2.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.1
Manufacturing Production* -16.0 4.5 3.7 -3.3 -1.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
Consumer Prices* 0.1 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8
Current Account Balance (Euro bn) -25.1 -25.5 -35.2 -44.4 -39.3 -35.4 -29.4 -21.1 -19.6 -33.9 -33.3
3 4
United Kingdom
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2023 1
G ross D o m estic P rod uct* -5.2 1.7 1.1 0.1 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1
H o useho ld C on sum p tion* -3.6 1.0 -0.5 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.4
G ross Fixed Investm ent* -16.7 2.8 -2.4 0.9 -2.5 6.0 6.3 5.5 5.2 3.7 4.0
M anufacturing P rodu ction* -10.2 4.2 1.8 -1.7 -0.3 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0
R etail P rices (u nderlying rate)* 2.0 4.8 5.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.2
C o nsum er P rices* 2.2 3.3 4.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.5
C u rrent A ccoun t B alance ( bn) -20.1 -40.0 -22.5 -59.8 -52.3 -43.0 -48.5 -49.2 -49.4 -64.1 -79.2
10 Y ear T reasury B on d Y ield , % 2 4.0 3.6 2.1 2.0 2.9 3
3.0 4
3.4 3.7 4.0 4.1 3.9
Italy
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Gross Domestic Product* -5.5 1.7 0.6 -2.6 -1.7 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1
Household Consumption* -1.6 1.5 -0.3 -4.2 -2.5 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8
Gross Fixed Investment* -11.8 0.5 -1.6 -8.4 -5.4 0.8 2.3 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.6
Industrial Production* -18.7 6.7 1.1 -6.5 -3.4 1.1 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.8
Consumer Prices* 0.8 1.5 2.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0
Current Account Balance (Euro bn) -30.2 -54.5 -48.3 -8.4 12.0 16.6 12.2 9.7 10.3 3.1 -10.5
3 4
Canada
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Personal Expenditure* 0.3 3.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2
Machinery & Eqpt Investment* -21.2 10.6 8.6 5.2 1.0 4.7 5.6 4.7 3.5 2.8 3.1
Consumer Prices* 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.5 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0
Current Account Balance (C$ bn) -45.8 -58.4 -48.5 -62.2 -56.0 -50.2 -44.6 -34.7 -32.3 -33.9 -27.7
3 4
Euro zone
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Private Consumption* -0.9 1.0 0.3 -1.4 -0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3
Gross Fixed Investment* -12.7 -0.6 1.7 -3.8 -3.6 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
Industrial Production* -15.1 7.3 3.2 -2.3 -0.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3
Consumer Prices* 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
Current Account Balance (Euro bn) -13.5 3.5 14.9 122 192 190 193 185 195 103 101
1 2 3 4

OCTOBER 2013 LONG-TERM FORECASTS
The Netherlands
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Private Consumption* -2.1 0.3 -1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -0.8 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Gross Fixed Investment* -12.0 -7.4 6.1 -4.0 -8.3 0.5 2.9 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.2
Manufacturing Production* -8.7 7.0 3.3 -0.8 -1.0 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6
Consumer Prices* 1.2 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0
Current Account Balance (Euro bn) 29.7 43.3 56.8 56.5 67.3 64.7 51.1 50.2 50.5 52.5 58.4
3 4
Norway
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Gross Dom Prod (Mainland)* -1.4 1.5 2.6 3.3 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.4
Private Consumption* -0.1 3.6 2.5 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.6
Gross Fixed Investment* -7.5 -8.0 7.5 8.1 5.9 4.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4
Manufacturing Production* -6.4 2.8 0.9 2.8 4.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.6
Consumer Prices* 2.2 2.4 1.3 0.7 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.8
Current Account Balance (Nkr bn) 279 303 351 412 354 360 344 336 328 308 285
3 4
Spain
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Gross Domestic Product* -3.8 -0.2 0.1 -1.6 -1.3 0.5 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.3
Household Consumption* -3.8 0.1 -1.2 -2.8 -2.7 0.0 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.1
Gross Fixed Investment* -18.0 -5.5 -5.4 -7.0 -6.6 -1.5 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.1
Industrial Production* -16.2 0.9 -1.8 -5.9 -2.8 -0.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3
Consumer Prices* -0.3 1.8 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2
Current Account Balance (Euro bn) -50.5 -47.0 -39.8 -11.5 12.8 22.9 30.6 36.2 36.9 42.3 53.6
3 4
10 Year Treasury Bond Yield, % 2 4.0 5.5 5.1 5.3 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.4
Sweden
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Household Consumption* -0.2 3.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8
Gross Fixed Investment* -15.5 6.7 8.3 3.6 -2.9 4.1 4.7 4.3 3.7 4.1 4.3
Mining & Manufacturing Production* -19.6 8.7 6.9 -3.1 -2.0 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.1 2.0 2.0
Consumer Prices* -0.3 1.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6
Current Account (Skr bn) 195 212 222 212 222 227 190 215 203 190 190
3 4
Switzerland
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20231
Private Consumption* 1.8 1.7 1.1 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
Gross Fixed Investment* -8.0 4.8 4.5 -0.4 0.8 2.6 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.3
Consumer Prices* -0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
Current Account Balance (SwFr bn) 58.5 84.4 52.5 66.3 75.4 80.0 83.3 81.9 80.1 81.1 85.4
3 4
1 2 3 4
NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS OCTOBER 2013
GDP - Gross Domestic Product IMF - International Monetary Fund

na - not available Emu - European economic and monetary union
OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ECB - European Central Bank
BoE - Bank of England PMI - Purchasing Managers Index
y-o-y - year-on-year q-o-q - quarter-on-quarter m-o-m - month-on-month
Measures of GDP, Consumption, Business Investment and Industrial Production are expressed in real (i.e.
inflation-adjusted) terms. These variables, and certain others as indicated, are expressed as percentage
changes over the previous year.
All individual country forecasters on pages 4-24 are listed in descending order of their 2013 real GDP
estimates. Consensus forecasts are mean arithmetic averages of the listed individual estimates.

OCTOBER 2013
This page has been left intentionally blank

CONSENSUS FORECASTS: WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
OCTOBER 2013
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013
Real GDP Consumer Prices Current Account

October
% increase % increase Balance, US$bn
Survey
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Belgium -0.3 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.2 1.7 -9.7 -6.3 -2.3
Canada 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.8 -62.3 -54.6 -48.4
France 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.5 -57.1 -52.0 -45.8
Germany 0.7 0.5 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.9 239 247 242
Italy -2.6 -1.7 0.5 3.0 1.4 1.6 -10.8 15.9 21.5
Japan 2.0 1.9 1.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 60.1 59.9 82.6
Netherlands -1.3 -1.2 0.4 2.5 2.7 1.7 72.7 89.0 83.7
Norway 3.3 2.0 2.5 0.7 2.1 1.9 70.8 60.5 60.8
Spain -1.6 -1.3 0.5 2.4 1.6 1.3 -14.8 17.0 29.7
Sweden 1.3 1.0 2.6 0.9 0.1 1.3 31.3 34.2 34.6
Switzerland 1.0 1.8 1.9 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 70.7 81.1 82.8
United Kingdom 0.1 1.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.5 -94.5 -81.5 -67.0
United States 2.8 1.6 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.8 -440 -406 -415
North America1 2.7 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.8 -502.3 -460.9 -463.8
Western Europe2 -0.3 0.0 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.7 318.3 435.1 473.7
European Union2 -0.4 0.0 1.3 2.4 1.6 1.7 150.3 279.7 310.0
Euro zone2 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 2.5 1.5 1.4 157.4 254.3 246.5
Asia Pacific3 4.8 4.6 4.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 251.9 321.7 352.2
Eastern Europe4 2.4 2.1 2.9 6.5 5.0 4.9 -7.0 -19.8 -42.7
Latin America5 2.8 2.6 3.1 6.1 7.8 7.1 -101.9 -130.0 -130.7
Other Countries6 4.2 3.7 4.2 5.2 5.6 5.8 149.7 108.7 83.5
Total7 2.7 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.0

Regional totals, as well as the grand total for GDP growth and inflation, are weighted averages calculated using 2012 GDP weights,
converted at average 2012 exchange rates. Current account forecasts given in national currencies on pages 7-24 have been
converted using consensus exchange rate forecasts for the purposes of comparison. 1USA and Canada. 2 The Euro zone aggregate
is taken from our panels latest forecasts (pages 18-19). The Euro zone current account data and forecasts are based on extra-euro
zone data, i.e., an aggregate of the Euro zone member states transactions only with nonresidents of the Euro zone. The European Union
data includes the Euro zone countries listed on page 18 plus Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, as well as May 2004 entrants
the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, plus Romania and Bulgaria which entered in January 2007, plus Croatia
which entered in July 2013 (data taken from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts). Western Europe comprises the Euro zone plus
Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, along with Norway and Switzerland. 3 Survey results for Japan plus fifteen other countries
taken from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. 4 Twenty-seven countries, including eleven European Union countries taken from the
latest issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. 5Eighteen countries taken from the latest issue of Latin American Consensus
Forecasts (inflation figures are on a December/December basis). 6 Egypt, Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. 7 The Eastern
Europe and Latin American components of the World Total are taken from the prior months surveys.
SUBSCRIPTION FORM
Please enter my subscription to Consensus Forecasts. My cheque for payment (US$595 or 370 or 540 for twelve
monthly issues, payable to Consensus Economics Inc.) is attached. My address is as shown below:
NAME
COMPANY
ADDRESS
COUNTRY POST/ZIP CODE
TELEPHONE FAX
SIGNATURE
Return this form to: Consensus Economics Inc.
53 Upper Brook Street See www.consensuseconomics.com for a
London W1K 2LT description of our other products and services.
United Kingdom
32 Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc.CF
10/13 2013

Consensus Forecasts: Survey Date October 14, 2013

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Consensus Forecasts: Survey Date October 14, 2013

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Contents US recovery prospects have been hit by the government shut-

World Economic Activity ................ 32 USA Japan UK E u ro z o n e

France Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts % change

Survey Date Survey Date

<Note: scale different from other charts>

0.5 0 .5 1.0 1.0

Survey Date Survey Date

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 3

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual Total

Com parison Forecasts

Government and Background Data Historical Data

4 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 5

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual Total

Government and Background Data Historical Data

6 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 7

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Government and Background Data Historical Data

8 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 9

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Gross Household Business Manufacturing Consumer Hourly

Produit Consommation Investissements Production Prix la Taux de Salaire

Government and Background Data Historical Data

10 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

Year Rates on Survey Date 2014 Budget in the Spotlight

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 11

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Gross Household Gross Company Manufactur- Retail Consumer Output Average

Government and Background Data Historical Data

Year Annual Total

Direction of Trade 2012

Real Growth and Inflation

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 13

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Gross Household Gross Industrial Consumer Producer Contractual

Prodotto Consumi Investimenti Produzione Prezzi Prezzi alla Retribuzione

Confindustria -1.6 0.7 -2.8 -0.1 -5.4 1.2 na na 1.5 1.7 na na na na

Government and Background Data Historical Data

14 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

2 1.4 2014 Consumer

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 15

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual

Government and Background Data Historical Data

16 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

7.1 7.1 -57.1 -59.1 Mode (most

Direction of Trade 2012 2014 GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 17

The EURO ZONE is: Austria, Year

Com parison Forecasts

European Monetary Union Historical Data

18 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013

Average % Change on Average % Recovery Weak, Fragile and Uneven

2.2 4.9 0.5 4.7 241 261

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 19

The second estimate of Q2 GDP was upgraded slightly to Historical Data

NYKredit 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 6.0 3.4 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na

Citigroup 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 na na na na 2.1 1.6 na na na na na na na na 2.9 2.9

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013 21

Spain likely exited its two-year recession in Q3 on the Historical Data

22 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013