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Mizuho Corporate Bank

Technical Analysis 02 August 2010


http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/
Monthly Outlook for EUR
EUR=EBS, Last Quote [Candle] Monthly
15Jun00 - 16Dec10
Pr
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Candle
1.6
31Aug10 1.3069 1.3090 1.3054 1.3066

1.55
B

1.5

1.45

1.4
61.8

50.0 1.35

38.2 38.2
1.3

1.25

50.0
A 1.2

C
'doji' 1.15
61.8
1.1

1.05

0.95

0.9

0.85

Jul00 Jan01 Jul Jan02 Jul Jan03 Jul Jan04 Jul Jan05 Jul Jan06 Jul Jan07 Jul Jan08 Jul Jan09 Jul Jan10 Jul

Comment: This year’s decline has been longer and taken the Euro far lower than we had imagined (having
only allowed for a correction down to the 1.3700/1.3500 area). After June’s ‘doji’ around 1.2140, the mid-point
between it’s all-time low at 0.8228 and high at 1.6040, July’s rally can be seen as a sort of ‘pincer’ movement to
May’s big drop. The Euro has already retraced 38% of the decline of the last seven months, adding weight to our
view that the move lower was overdone and some sort of massive ‘extension’. Over the summer we expect it to rally
to 1.3500/1.3700, undoing yet more of the massive correction lower that started in 2008, which takes the shape of a
huge A, B, C-type move. The very long term trend remains bullish.
A monthly close clearly below 1.1800 would force us to review.
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance Direction of Trade
1.2850 1.3125*
1.2730 1.3385
1.2625 1.3500*
1.2500/1.2450* 1.3700
1.2330/1.2300** 1.3800*

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509 (email Nicole.Elliott@mhcb.co.uk)


The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or
warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared
solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading
strategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.

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