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MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES

Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

- COMMODITIES Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets Commodity Price Short term market drivers  
- COMMODITIES Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets Commodity Price Short term market drivers  

Commodity

Price

Short term market drivers

 

Technical levels

Crude Oil (WTI), 1M.

82,22

Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe, demand from China and the US economy Julys oil market reports showed unchanged to slightly higher expectations of demand in 2010. Active hurricane season: Storms at US/Mexican coast can support. Tropical storm Alex does not seem to cause problems

-

Resistance:

85,00

next

90,00

$/brl.

+

Support:

80,00

next

70,00

+/-

Momentum:

Gold NYMEX spot

1197

Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe Focus has moved a bit away from Europe - bank stress test did not show any major concerns FED wants to keep rates low for an "extended" period. Focus on inflation fear still supports

+

Resistance:

1.250

next

1.275

$/oz

-

Support:

1.150

next

1.125

+

Momentum:

Copper LME, 3M

7422

Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe. Also, concerns for Chineese real estate market persists LME inventories have fallen about 25% since March. ICSG reports a market in deficit in March og April China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected)

-

Resistance:

7.600

next

7.800

$/t

+

Support:

7.200

next

7.000

+/-

Momentum:

Aluminium LME,

2205

Financing deals means that, even if LME-inventories are at record highs, a smaller part of the physical aluminium is available China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe and demand from China

+

Resistance:

2.225

next

2.300

3M

$/t

+/-

Support:

2.070

next

1.850

-

Momentum:

Nickel LME, 3M

22000

Still weak demand indicators in the OECD - but improving in recent months China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) Mudslide in China's Gansu province (major producer) may disturb Chineese nickel production

-

Resistance:

23.000

next

25.000

$/t

+

Support:

17.000

next

15.750

+

Momentum:

Wheat CBOT

861,8

Russia bans export from the 15th of August - panic in the wheat market Crop conditions in the US at a very high level suggest high yields Worries on European and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China)

+

Resistance:

875

next

935

Dec10

USc/bu

-

Support:

700

next

650

+

Momentum:

Wheat MATIF

223,50

Russia bans export from the 15th of August - panic in the wheat market Worries on European and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) Strong competition from Russia for export markets; this affects primarily European wheat

+

Resistance:

240

next

260

Nov10

€/t

+

Support:

200

next

180

-

Momentum:

Continued on next page…

Target 1M
Target 1M

78

1250

7.200

2.070

20.500

700

200

Publisher:

Editors:

Jyske Markets

Casper Andersen

Charlotte Rahlf

Commodities

Analyst

Analyst

Vestergade 8-16

+45 89 89 71 74

+45 89 89 71 75

DK-8600 Silkeborg

candersen@jyskebank.dk

crahlf@jyskebank.dk

Trading desk, commodities:

Hans Chr. Haugaard Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Søren Kræn Pedersen Peter Peschardt

+45 87 57 82 65 raavarer@jyskebank.dk

Read more:

Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com

Disclaimer:

Please see the last page

MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES

Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

- COMMODITIES Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets Commodity Price Short term market drivers
- COMMODITIES Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets Commodity Price Short term market drivers

Commodity

Price

Short term market drivers

Technical levels

Target 1M

385,3

€/t

Continued indications of Chineese imports support Most recent data from USDA suggests high ethanol use Crop conditions in the US at a high level suggest high yields

Imports to China hit rekord level in June (up 42 % m/m og 32 % y/y) China will let its currency strengthen and thereby increase the buying power (commodity demand) South american harvest will most likely be quite large and reduce US exports when harvested

Australia’s production seems to come out rather favourable. The USDA projects consumption at 59.5m tonnes (2010/11), but a balance deficit of 1.6m tonnes. Germany, the largest producer in the EU, anticipates lower yields than last year due to the warm weather conditions.

400

1.020

380

Publisher:

Editors:

Trading desk, commodities:

 

Hans Chr. Haugaard Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Søren Kræn Pedersen Mads Hemmingsen Peter Peschardt

Read more:

Jyske Markets

Casper Andersen Analyst +45 89 89 71 74 candersen@jyskebank.dk

Charlotte Rahlf Analyst +45 89 89 71 75 crahlf@jyskebank.dk

Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com

Commodities

Vestergade 8-16

Disclaimer:

DK-8600 Silkeborg

Please see the last page

 

+45 87 57 82 65 raavarer@jyskebank.dk

MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES

Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

- COMMODITIES Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank is supervised by
- COMMODITIES Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank is supervised by

Disclaimer & Disclosure

Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority.

Jyske Bank's analysts are subject to the recommendations of The Danish Securities Dealers Association on the handling of conflicts of interest within investment banks.

The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied.

This is a recommendation and not an investment report.

Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent conflicts of interest. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank.

Jyske Bank's FX, money market and commodity analysts may not hold positions in the instruments for which they prepare research reports, but Jyske Bank is permitted to hold positions and/or have interests in the instruments for which such reports are prepared. The analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports.

Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at www.jyskebank.dk/terms

Risk FX, money market and/or commodity investment involves risk. Movements in the credit market, the sector and/or the news flow, etc. regarding the issuer may affect the exchange rate/the interest rate/the price of the commodity. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the currency/interest rate/commodity investment. The risk factors and/or the sensitivity calculations stated in the report should not be regarded as exhaustive.

Update of the research report Analyses, recommendations, and ad hoc publications are not updated. A new publication will instead be published if and when it is found necessary. Market comments are updated daily.

See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. All prices stated are the latest trading prices at the time of the release of the research report, unless otherwise stated.