Angola 1.1
Congo 1.11
Dijbouti 1.63
Singapore 8.6
Japan 10.1
Canada 15.9
USA 16.5
2.0 1.7
1.6
1.5 1.3 1.4
1.0
1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
0.5 0.5
0.5
0.0
2.0
1.5 0.9
1.0
0.5
0.0
Philippines Singapore Malaysia Republic of Thailand China Indonesia
(2011) (1968) (1976) Korea (1991) (2004) (2008)
(1982)
1998
1999
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2005
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
TOP 10 contributors NEXT 10 contributors Rest of the World (166 countries)
50
40
30
20
10
Other&
Commercial& Industry&
Commercial& Manufacturi 13.43%&
7.81%& 20.22%&
ng&
Commercial& Manufacturi 20.31%&
27.15%& ng&
34.43%& Residen?al& Manufacturi
17.40%& ng&
10.61%&
Residen?al&
34.70%&
Residen?al& Transport&
33.55%& Transport& 32.56%&
0.15%& Transport&
36.43%&
Manufacturing growth and poverty
reduction
12
10
0
Philippines China Vietnam
Agriculture Services Industry (Manufacturing)
Special thanks to Cuicui Chen for providing the estimates of absolute CO2 reduction
relative to BAU 2030 based on the paper, Chen C. and R. Zeckhauser. 2016. Collective
Action in Asymmetric World.
Some Policy Recommendations
Being party to the climate change agreement is beneficial to
the Philippines.
However, we need to clarify the conditionalities that go with
the 70% reduction relative to BAU.
Focus on demand-side management
Less carbon-dependent transportation
More efficient energy use (e.g., shift to led light bulbs)
Shift additional charges (FIT, Universal, stranded cost,
Missionary) from Manufacturing/Industry towards Services and
the State Treasury
Work for a FIT-in tariff bill bankrolled by the global climate fund
Create a truly single market for electricity in the Philippines
Let the market decide on the fuel mix (with full implementation
of RCOA)
Salamat po!
Notes on CO2 emissions reduction
estimates relative to BAU emissions from
Chen and Zeckhauser 2016:
* Reduction is in terms of million tons of CO2.
* EU is treated as one party; the same number is used for
Germany, Italy, and UK.
* No data for Congo due to unavailability of population/GDP
projections.
* No data for Japan because 2013 is not observed (base
year) emissions in the carbon emissions dataset.
* GHGs are assumed to be all CO2; GHG projections are not
used because of data limitations.
* CO2 emissions exclude land-use-related emissions.
* Negative entries in the reduction column means that the
country actually increases its emission.
Industrial
electricity price Residential
electricity
Entire sample Without outlier price
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Manufacturing growth (-1) 0.39 0.37 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.40 0.39
[0.04]*** [0.05]*** [0.04]*** [0.04]*** [0.05]*** [0.04]*** [0.07]***
CO2 emissions (-1) 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.25
[0.05]*** [0.06]*** [0.05]*** [0.05]*** [0.06]*** [0.05]*** [0.07]***
Electricity price -0.96 -0.82 -1.18 -0.97 -0.75 -1.18 -0.77
[0.34]*** [0.37]** [0.38]*** [0.34]*** [0.38]* [0.38]*** [0.43]*
K formation (% GDP) 0.08 0.13 0.09 0.08 0.13 0.09 0.09
[0.04]* [0.04]*** [0.04]** [0.04]* [0.04]*** [0.04]** [0.04]**
Services growth (-1) -0.43 -0.44 -0.42 -0.41 -0.43 -0.41 -0.66
[0.09]*** [0.08]*** [0.09]*** [0.08]*** [0.07]*** [0.09]*** [0.10]***
ICRG 0.09 0.19 0.10 0.09 0.17 0.09 0.11
[0.03]*** [0.06]*** [0.03]*** [0.03]*** [0.06]*** [0.04]** [0.04]***
Exchange Rate (-1) 0.17 0.20 0.14 0.19 0.22 0.17 0.24
[0.06]*** [0.07]*** [0.0711]* [0.05]*** [0.06]*** [0.06]*** [0.09]**
Manufacturing tariff 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 -0.09
[0.04] [0.05] [0.0444] [0.04] [0.06] [0.05] [0.04]**
Initial per capita GDP -1.34 -2.13 -1.31 -1.30 -2.00 -1.29 -1.95
[0.43]*** [0.76]*** [0.48]*** [0.42]*** [0.78]** [0.54]** [0.42]***
Latin America 2.09 2.04
[0.82]** [0.72]***
Sub-Saharan Africa -0.09 -0.09
[0.58] [0.52]
Tropical area 0.65 0.60
[0.42] [0.47]
Period dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 149 149 149 148 148 148 158
Number of countries 50 50 50 50 50 50 53
Number of instruments 47 50 48 47 50 48 49
AR(2) test (p-value) 0.25 0.31 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.25 0.32
Hansen test (p-value) 0.60 0.68 0.64 0.59 0.66 0.61 0.42
Standard errors in brackets
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%