Delphi Analysis of National Specificities in Selec

Technological Forecasting & Social Change
70 (2003) 419 448
Delphi analysis of national specificities in

selected innovative areas in Germany and France
Patrick Ronde*
Bureau dEconomie Theorique et Appliquee, Universitee, Universite Louis Pasteur,
61 Avenue de la Foret Noire, 67085 Strasbourg Cedex, France
Laboratoire dIntelligence Organisationnelle, Universite de Haute Alsace, 61 rue Albert Camus,
68093 Mulhouse Cedex, France
Received 27 February 2002; received in revised form 24 May 2002; accepted 7 June 2002
Abstract
The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with
more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions,
imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge
and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science
technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant
revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to
propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and
consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis
of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order
to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our
methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles,
energy, environment and natural resources.
D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Technological clusters; Delphi analysis; Foresight process
* Tel.: +33-3-90-24-21-94; fax: +33-3-90-24-20-71.

E-mail address: ronde@cournot.u-strasbg.fr (P. Ronde).
0040-1625/02/$ see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00305-0
420 P. Ronde / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 70 (2003) 419448
1. Introduction
The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economic problems
combined with the occurrence of increased social pressure, more global competition,
accelerated technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new
challenges for public policies and especially for science and technology policies. Hence,
the desire to identify those technologies, which will have the greatest impact on economic
competitiveness and social welfare is expressed from various sides [1]. Therefore, it is not
surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in
many countries around the world [2]. At the starting point of foresight is the belief that there
are many possible futures and that the future which will occur partly depends on the decisions
we take now. Hence, foresight is defined here as the process involved in systematically
looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to
yield the greatest economic and social benefits [3]. The ultimate goal of foresight is to
ensure that areas of science and technology that are likely to yield future socioeconomic
benefits are promptly identified. Identifying emerging generic technologies is very important
not only in order to ensure high socioeconomic benefits but also because of the path-
dependency character of industrial dynamics.
As a matter of fact, in the evolutionary tradition, the development of a technological
trajectory is the outcome of the intrinsically cumulative nature of learning processes and
therefore, the generation of new knowledge builds upon what has been learned in the past [4
7]. Hence, research is typically characterised by increasing dynamic returns in the form of
learning by doing, learning to learn and the fact that todays research generates tomorrows
new opportunities [8,9]. Therefore, technological cumulativeness and localised learning
generate irreversibility, which is expressed by the property of path-dependency in the
evolution of the trajectory [10,11]. Thus, the mode of development of a technology and
the choice of many potential trajectories are strongly influenced by initial decisions.1 Initial or
transitory actions put the system on a path that cannot be left without costs, as pointed out
first by P. David [12] with the famous example of QWERTY. One of the major problems,
which can block industrial development, concerns the context of these initial decisions made
under great uncertainty and ignorance about the respective qualities and properties of the
various options. Taking decisions and at the same time eliminating options in a context of
ignorance, entail the risk of missing the best path of development because technological
variants with unique properties may be lost and never properly explored [10]. Thus, the
technical and economic features of a trajectory may lock the economic system in some
suboptimal alternatives [1315]. Many cases of such suboptimal alternatives are developed
in the literature of potential regret in economic history [10] with the well known examples
of the QWERTY keyboard [13] or nuclear power [16]. Another problem concerns the
possible existence of bottlenecks in the development of a technological trajectory which can
1
See, for example, the work on economic standards which shows that technologies selected first have greater
chances to diffuse faster (Katz and Shapiro, 1986, Farell and Saloner, 1985, Foray, 1989).
P. Ronde / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 70 (2003) 419448 421
block the diffusion processes as it was the case in biotechnology [17] or the metal castings
field [18,19].
In the light of those elements, we argue that sometimes, industrial development requires
governmental intervention based on a foresight analysis. In fact, the path dependence feature
of the system implies that initial or transitory conditions in the form of a preexisting
technology basis, actors and networks play an important role. Moreover, the importance of
strategies of first user choice [20] shows the role that government can play to orient the
process toward the best possible trajectory in the early stage of the development of a
trajectory. Therefore, foresight processes can be of primary importance if the target is to
anticipate the real demand for technology and to assess the right moment for public
intervention, in order to avoid bottlenecks and suboptimal trajectories. If the foresight
process is able to promptly identify generic technologies, then public intervention could
shape the construction of techno-industrial clusters and influence the constitution of the
National System of Innovation (NSI) in a desirable way.
The main purpose of the paper is hence to propose a foresight method which provides a
taxonomy of future technologies and a first tool for understanding the emergence and the
constitution of National Systems of Innovation both in France and in Germany. In Section 2,
we present our data and methodology. In Section 3, our results are examined with the aim of
proving that our analysis is able to stress a first representation of the main differences between
the French and German National Systems of Innovation and the future technological
trajectories for several technological fields. Section 4 devotes some consideration to the
method and some policy implications. We conclude the paper in Section 5.
2. Methodology and data
In the evolutionary tradition, radical uncertainty linked to the hypothesis of bounded

rationality implies that the actions of social systems cannot be predicted in terms of natural
laws, and that future events cannot be determined by extrapolation, but are shaped by
communities [21] and other factors include funding, the decision process, chance, compet-
ition. . . In such cases, traditional methods of forecasting using probabilistic predictions based
on todays knowledge base are not relevant. Therefore, it is not surprising that, in the 1980s, the
term foresight was first used in connection with the new evolutionary economics. Hence,
foresight exercises often use qualitative analyses and combine science and technological
inquiries, communication analysis, etc. The Delphi method seems to be the favoured tool of
modern foresight in many countries.2 If historically the Delphi method is one of the oldest
processes, developed first by the Rand Corporation in 1964, since 1990, and after many years of
decline, we observe a revival of this method with many foresight experiences around the world
[2]. Many papers have presented in details the Delphi technique [21] and the new paradigms this
method implies in connection with the study of the National System of Innovation [2,22].
2
Of course, various other classical foresight methods such as cross-impact matrices or scenarios are known
and can be used as alternative procedures of technological management in the context of public operations.
Hence we limit our presentation to the most important features. In its fundamental principle,
the Delphi method consists in collecting the raw opinion of experts at a time t on a series
of questions and to confront these opinions with those collected through a second
investigation where each expert can review his/her judgement knowing the average opinion
of the first phase. This two-stage procedure is then able to exhibit deviant behaviours of the
first round and more consensual futures of the second round. Moreover, the inquiry includes
variables expressing the nature of the expert such as his/her age, knowledge, and
institutional membership.
The results of the French foresight exercise were published in a final report [23] and
several associated papers [24,25]. Many possible future opportunities in a very large scope of
fields were elaborated, taking into account the most important consensual topics and the
major obstacles to innovation. Hence, political implications and guidelines were deduced
with the determination of priorities and the identification of the most desirable subjects.
Nevertheless, we believe that such an approach forgets to analyse all the linkages between
knowledge, science and technical objects which make it possible to identify a generic
technology defined as the whole of techniques, methods, processes, knowledge and ability
to create innovation flows [26]. In fact, a generic technology is constituted by a network of
several science-based principles, techniques, know-how and know-why. Helping the devel-
opment of one technique and missing another technique linked to the first one is a nonsense
and can block a technological trajectory, as pointed out in the introduction of the paper with
the biotechnology example. Hence, we maintain that it is necessary to know and list all the
technical objects linked together and which could contribute to the development of a generic
technology [27]. Giving priority to the fight against Alzheimer or Schizophrenia and
forgetting that those diseases are linked to research in artificial intelligence imply that some
interesting trajectories of research might be omitted and never used. Therefore, it is of
primary importance to identify all the techniques, which allow the development of a generic
technology along the best possible trajectories. Our methodology aims thus at identifying
coherent sets of future innovations regrouped within technological clusters based on science
and technical complementarities. It is then more technology push than demand-pull oriented.
Our database is the outcome of a Delphi investigation carried out during the years 1994
1995 in France, under the auspices of the Ministry of the Higher Education and Research
(DGRT-DRI). This project was led by the Consultant Company SOFRES for the material
implementation and by the university laboratory BETA for the exploitation and the inter-
pretation of the data. The Delphi investigation was composed of about 1150 items concerning
research topics in advanced technologies and regrouped within 15 big technological domains.
Of course, an important question concerns the initial selection of the experts and the
consequences for our analysis.3 The inquiry gathered 3388 experts (in academic, industrial,
and administrative circles) and led to 1273 responses for the first round (38%) and 1122 for
the second. The first important task was the selection of the sample of experts. For a large
part, the ministry used its own databases, operated by the Directorate of Scientific
3
For the German Delphi, see Refs. [1,31].
Information. To a lesser extent, SOFRES and BETA contributed to the list of experts in
specific fields or types of experts. The main sources were Telelab for academic research and
France Technologie for industrial expertise. The sample was finally set up with the following
structure: 45% for industry, 30% for public research (non-university) organizations and 25%
for university. This structure fits the French research system relatively well-reflecting for
instance the specific weight of public research outside university, which is a natural
peculiarity. Furthermore, the overall response rate of 33% (end result compared to send-outs
in the first round) happened to be roughly the same for the three categories, and therefore no
important bias was introduced at that level. As pointed out by Cuhls and Heraud [25], the
problem of the initial selection of the experts could be a serious one if one considers a public
Delphi as an inquiry for anticipating the future and if one hopes to find it in the brains of a
selected set of experts. But as long as Delphi is considered as a collective strategic
procedure for improving communication, starting debates and thoughts about futures
trajectories, that problem is not too serious.
In order to elaborate our taxonomy and to identify generic technologies and future
technological trajectories, we propose the following procedure.4 Among experts who replied
to the Delphi investigation, we suppose that if an expert allocates the maximal grade in
degree of his knowledge for the i and j topics, it means that these two topics are close in
terms of science and/or technological base. However, this hypothesis is only realistic for
high levels of expertise since it clearly appears that the scientific and technical personnel are
supposed to widen their domains of investigation as their career progresses and their
research advances. This is why we suppose that the i and j topics are linked only if an expert
k assigns the grade 1 or 25 to his knowledge of the two topics. Of course, it would be
interesting to have a more complex measure of association between topics, including not
only self rate expertise but also past education, publications or personality characteristics.
Unfortunately, we do not have such informations with our Delphi sample and we cannot
obtain the information because of the guarantee of anonymity in the Delphi exercise.
Nevertheless, we have tested another method of association, which combine self-rate
expertise and the importance that each expert accord to the subject. There will be only
marginal differences.
So, let T be the set of technologies (topics) with Card(T) = n, E the set of experts with
Card(E) = m and X the binary (n*m) data matrix technologies/experts where only experts
with high level of knowledge for at least one topic are considered. Hence, an I vector
column of X referring to topic i is composed of 0 or 1 according to the fact that the
expert k (k = 1. . .m) have a good or a bad knowledge of topic i. Now, we define a
similarity diagonal (n*n) matrix S in which each element reflects the proximity index
between two technologies in terms of knowledge base. In order to do this, let I be the
vector column of X for the is technology and J the vector column of X for the js
technology. The proximity index ( P(i,j)) between topic i and topic j is calculated as the
4
A first presentation of the method can be found in Ref. [27].
5
In the Delphi investigation, the grade 1 implies a very good knowledge of the subject, the grade 2 a
good knowledge, the grade 3 a partial knowledge and the grade 4 no knowledge.
number of experts who simultaneously know the two topics i and j divided per the
number of experts knowing i and the number of experts knowing j: P(i,j)=(I\J/IJ). We
thus obtain a similarity diagonal (n*n) matrix S=(sij) in which each element reflects the
proximity index between two technologies in terms of knowledge base. For any i, j
technologies in the T set, we have 0 sij 1. Of course sii = 1 and, if there is no common
knowledge base between i and j, sij = 0. Now, we consider d = 1/s. d have the properties of
a metric distance function. Hence, with this measure, either of the magnitude of the
distance between two topics, or of the magnitude of their similarity, we can use clustering
algorithms in order to define homogeneous classes of technologies. We propose to use
both a factorial analysis of dissimilarities in order to have a visual representation of
topics in a two-dimension space and the cluster algorithm dynamic cloud method. This
combination is considered as relevant for such an analysis [28] because the proximity
analysis allows us to choose the number of classes, which are parameters in the dynamic
cloud method. Nevertheless, another characteristic of our Delphi sample is that there is no
linkage between the various technological fields. Therefore, we cannot associate two
topics for two different fields and, in fact, it may be interesting to consider for example
whether negative linkages can provide added information.
3. Results of the clustering analysis: a French/German comparison
Although the Delphi analysis contains 15 main technological fields, we limit our
comparison to five sectors: the sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, mineral and
water resources, energy and environment. As a matter of fact, the goal is not to make policy
recommendations for the 15 fields but to prove that our method is a potential interesting tool
for analysing the point of convergence and divergence of two future National Systems of
Innovation, and for identifying the differentiated industrial policies it is possible to deduce.
This is the reason why we use the database of 1993, the only one which makes international
comparisons possible.6
The choice of the fields is the outcome of many priorities, preferences and constraints.
First, for statistical conveniences, it was not possible to keep the fields geoscience and
manufacturing activities. Second, several inquiries concern a large number of topics
with a large number of respondants (98 topics and 144 experts with high level of
knowledge for the French case of the life sciences) and other inquiries are more limited
(40 topics and 25 experts with high level of knowledge for the German case of
elementary particles). We chose to have a good balance between the two possibilities.
Finally, the choice was made on more subjective arguments: the commonly accepted
vision of the different nations based on their (supposed) cultural and industrial traditions,
decided our selection. The Germans are in this sense viewed as taking more care of their
environment, whereas the French have a long tradition of research in elementary particles
and nuclear energy.
6
We are very grateful to the Fraunhofer ISI for the German data.
3.1. The life sciences
For the French case, the statistical analysis enables us to distinguish three homogeneous
classes (cf. Appendix C to relate the numbers in the clusters to the Delphi items).7
For the German case, the most relevant partition is in three classes, as in the French case.
The first cluster is strongly linked to methods against cancer. It is a particularly

interesting cluster since it provides bases for constructing a generic technology to struggle
7
Some topics are not included in the clusters because no expert in France or in Germany has a good
knowledge about them.
against this disease. For example, the future research program will probably be based on
molecular analysis in relation with protein structure (topics 1, 2, 3, 4 and 9). Therefore, one
can imagine a better understanding of the immunological functions of immunocytes
responsible for the distinction between self and noself (topic 21), an explanation of the
transmission processes of signals at the cellular level (topic 22) without forgetting methods
which are linked to the cellular division and differentiation processes that one can try to
block in order to avoid propagation (topics 2, 3, 23, 24 and 61). Next to it, the presence of
topics 31, 64 72, 78 and 79 which refer to the use of techniques of gene introduction opens
the way for the genetic modification in cancer therapy. On the other hand, the presence of
topics 25, 27, 32, 58, 59 and 88 within this group raises the question whether future
therapies will require the use of new techniques such as biomimetism and artificial organs.
Indeed, in a proximity analysis, topics 25, 27, 88 and 89, which are directly related to
biomimetism, are at the borderline between clusters 1 and 3. The recognition of such a
research trajectory should open up some interesting perspectives for public research policies
because it points out the need to develop new materials linked to artificial organs for future
therapies. Hence, the relevance of the analysis appears confirmed. More specifically, the
differences between the French and the German cluster concern topics 13, 15, 27, 80, 91
and 96. As a primary analysis, the German generic technology against cancer focuses on
natural and herbal medicines. Researchers try to understand their mechanisms of action
(topic 13) and to reproduce them industrially thanks to bioreactor technologies or micro-
organisms (topics 15, 80).
The second cluster concerns the brain and is composed of topics which all refer
either to the molecular level or to the organic one. One interesting fact is that this
cluster includes the elucidation of the relationship between the brain neuronal activities
and the thinking processes (topic 65), the development of new computer technologies
based on neuronal architecture (topic 60), the development of artificial intelligence that
imitates the thinking processes (topic 66) and of interfaces enabling direct linkages
between the computer and the brain (topic 89). Therefore, this cluster provides
interesting elements about the future technological trajectories related to medical
problems such as schizophrenia (topic 77) or the Alzheimer disease (topic 74 and
75). An interesting point is that research trajectories are very similar in the French
and the German cases because there are only marginal differences between the two
clusters. The German cluster includes the topic 63 elucidation of the mechanism of
aging.
Finally, the last cluster is about artificial technologies such as bioreactor technologies,
the development of biodevices, biosensors and artificial membranes. The proximity analysis
tells us that this cluster is less stable than the other one. As in the previous case, there are few
differences between the German and French clusters.
As a first conclusion, we find that in the life sciences sector the generic technologies
and hence, the future technological trajectories are very similar in the French and the
German case. The most important difference concerns the therapy against cancer and the
fact that research in Germany is more oriented toward the development of natural
medicines.
3.2. The sector of energy
For the French case, we find five clusters:
For the German case, the most relevant partition is only composed of four clusters.
In the French as in the German case, the first cluster is based on primary energies such as
coal, petroleum and natural gas. The only interesting point of differentiation is that all the
topics of this first cluster are linked to geothermics in the French case and not in the German
case, whatever the level of aggregation.
The second cluster refers to the utilisation of reproducible energy (topics 9 to 18)
in order to produce electricity and to its applications for the development of
combined-cycle power generation plants (topics 34, 37, 38 and 39). An interesting
point is that in the German case, this cluster includes the topics related to the
development of electric cars (topics 33 and 46), whereas in the French case those
topics are clustered in a third group (cluster 3) where we can find all the innovations
linked to fuel cells (topics 32, 35 and 48) and to the practical use of batteries with
high energy density (topic 40). A possible explanation of this phenomenon is that the
French project of electric car is locked in an irreversible trajectory related to the
development of fuel cells, whereas the German project is more open, including many
technological options and potential trajectories which include the use of solar cells
(topics 12, 15 and 16), hydrogen (topic 33) or biomass (topic 13). Last but not least,
the ecological topics (17, 18, 49, 50 and 51) are in this second cluster in the
German case (and not in the French one), which can mean a more global vision of
the ecological problems in Germany, directly linked to the development of reproducible
energies.
In the French case, the fourth cluster is composed of ecological topics with a
double objective: the creation of value with waste such as exhaust gas (topic 8) or
organic waste (topics 17 and 18) and the rational use of energies (topics 49, 50 and
51).
In the German case, the cluster 3 is dedicated to all the topics connected to secondary
energies with few exceptions: topics such as terrestrial heat and thermal power (topics 8, 10,
19 and 20). For the moment, we do not have any plausible explanation and certainly some
complementary information are needed, by means of interviews of experts for example in
order to obtain a more global vision.
In the fourth cluster (cluster 5 for the French case), we clearly identify topics
linked to nuclear power (topics 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 and 29). An interesting
difference between the French and German clusters is that we find in the French
case topics linked to electric power storage and electric power transmission problems
(topics 41, 42, 43, 44 and 45). This phenomenon reflects the industrial reality
because a large part of the electric energy is due to nuclear power in France with
the establishment of the monopoly position of EDF (the French public company for
electricity).
The differences appear more important in the energy sector than it was the case for
the life science. They concern the fields of nuclear energy, ecological problems and elec-
tric car and can be interpreted as the consequences of cultural and historical differences.
This last point stresses the importance of history in the choice of many potential
technological trajectories and sheds light on the path-dependency character of technolo-
gical systems.
3.3. Mineral and water resources
The analysis of the German case implies to distinguish three clusters:
We obtain a similar partition in the French case:
The first remark is that there is no expert with a good knowledge of topics 3, 4, 9, 10 and
37 in France. Therefore, the technological distance between those topics and the other ones is
null and hence they are not included in our partition.
Concerning the clustering analysis, the first German group is essentially composed of
topics linked to mineral resources including metals, nonmetals, scarce and common
resources. In France however, there is a distinction between what concerns research in
geology, which includes topics related to prospecting, exploration, discovery and exploitation
of new bottom mineral resources (cluster 1), and what concerns the commercial applications
of mining extraction, which include topics related to new refining methods, biotechnological
methods of separation of metallic elements or new materials (cluster 2). It is a French
peculiarity to distinguish innovations in mineral resources prospecting from innovations in
mineral resources exploitation. This fact reflects probably a long tradition of separation
between applied and basic research in France.
In the German case, clusters 2 and 3 regroup topics related to water resources with a close
distinction between what concerns the management of water quality which includes for
example the Widespread use of recycling systems for sewage and waste water even in small-
scale plants, based on advances in treatment technology (topic 26) or Significant
improvements in water purifying technologies due to new materials and biotechnologies,
thus providing safe, good-tasting water to drink (topic 33), and what concerns water
provision (cluster 3). In France, this distinction does not exist.
3.4. Elementary particles
The proximity analysis suggests a partition into 2 homogeneous classes for the French case
and in 4 classes for the German case. Topics 12, 31 and 32 are not included in the French
partition because none of the experts who answered the inquiry had a good knowledge of
those topics. We obtain the following results with the clustering analysis:
The French partition:
The German partition:

In the German case, the generic technologies are clearly identified. The first cluster
regroups topics related to communication, transmission and radiography. Therefore we
find topics linked to research about elementary particles such as Practical use of linear
accelerators utilising high-temperature superconducting technologies (topic 5) or Cre-
ation of new elements with atomic numbers of 120 or higher (topic 13) and about
detection and measurement engineering (topics 2540). The second cluster concerns the
development of a generic technology for the realisation and application of new
generations of microscopes. It is an interesting cluster, which details the technological
and scientific knowledge base of the future trajectory (X-ray and positrons), as well as
the most important problems to be solved in order to win this race (essentially linked to
high energy accelerating particles (topics 1 and 4)). The third cluster can be identified as
devoted to high capacity computers, which imply the realisation of several scientific and
technical innovations such as the Practical use of radio frequency accelerators with
about 1 GV/m accelerating gradient (topic 3), the Practical use of semiconductor
optical detecting devices with more than one million pixels capable of detecting one
photon in a visible light area (topic 23) or the Development of semiconductors that do
not deteriorate in performance at 100 Mrad radiation (topic 24). Finally, cluster 4 is
based on medical research in connection with research on particles.
In France, the clustering analysis provides more ambiguous results. First we do not
identify generic technologies linked to the next generation of microscopes or to the
development of high capacity computers. Second, there is no clear distinction between
the two clusters (as shown in the proximity analysis) and we do not recognise the
specificities and finality of those clusters. In fact the dominant feeling, which becomes
apparent from our analysis, is that there is no clear objective for research in the field of
elementary particles in France. If there are more numerous experts in France than in
Germany, their primary interest appears to be in basic research and we do not find a
network of scientists focussed on a common project with common and complementary
knowledge, which can express itself by the constitution of a generic technology that may
produce innovations.
3.5. Environment
Let us begin with a first remark. Topics 10 and 37 are very atypical in the French as in the
German analyses and resist at any attempt at clustering analysis. Hence, despite the fact that
there are many experts with a good knowledge of those topics in the two countries, they are
excluded from our analysis. One explanationfor topic 37is that it is the only one, which
refers to noises and vibrations as a source of environmental pollution. Topic 10 is also very
special and stresses the effect of global warming on damages caused by epidemics. The
clustering analysis exhibits the following results:
The German partition:
The French partition
If we look first at the French case, cluster 1 is essentially science-based and reflects
the state of the art and research in the study of gas identification, propagation and
concentration in connection with environmental problems. Therefore, we find here pure
scientific topics such as number 6 Elucidation of precise mechanisms of the emission
and extinction of carbon dioxin in the atmosphere and more applied topics, in particular
linked to the problem of forecasting and evaluation of the damage caused by fluorocarbon
(topic 2) global warming (topic 9) and other sources of gas pollution. An interesting fact
is that beside theoretical topics, we find topics linked to future innovations with the aim
of improving the actual ecological situation. For example, topics 12 World-wide
reduction of the emission of carbon dioxide by 20% of the current level, 13 Possibility
of controlling an increase in the concentration of the greenhouse effect gases in the
atmosphere, 14 Development of high efficient carbon dioxide separating film, but also
32 and 49, which represent various methods of controlling or reducing the emission of
pollutants.
Cluster 2 deals primarily with the consequences of a degradation of the quality of the
environment upon humans, animals or plants. For example, topics 8 and 11 respectively
assess the damages caused by global warming upon forests and agricultural production
whereas topic 20 assesses the damages caused by acid rain to animals or plants and topic 43
the damages caused upon humans by a long exposure of the most harmful chemical
substances. Various methods to fight against pollution are described in this cluster such as
the Creation of coral reefs capable of fixing carbon dioxide at the rate of 5 kg/m2 per year or
more (topic 16), the Development of a technique for fixing carbon dioxide in flue gas by
using algae having a photosynthesis efficiency that is twice or more that the conventional
type (topic 17) or the Establishment of an evaluation system for man-made micro-
organisms, which are created by biotechnologies including gene manipulation in open
system, and utilisation of organisms useful for purifying the environment (topic 48) and
this confers to cluster 2 a high degree of relevance for the constitution of a generic
technology, which gathers competencies linked to the problems of cleanness.
Finally, cluster 3 refers to marine pollutants and water quality. It is an interesting
technological cluster, which highlights the role of scientific explanations (topics 23, 33 and
46), biotechnologies (topics 35 and 36) and natural purifying mechanisms (34) for the
preservation and the improvement of water quality.
A significant phenomenon is that the results of the German clustering analysis are very
different from the French ones and reflect very well, in our sense, the German
specificities. For example, there is one more cluster, which probably indicates a higher
degree of specialisation in the field. This cluster is specifically devoted to waste
management and highlights the German ecological preoccupation. As a matter of fact,
cluster 3 concerns different methods of reduction of gas emission (topics 4, 12, 13, 14
and 32), which include developing electric cars (topic 49), as well as of reduction of
domestic wastes (topics 38, 39, 40 and 41). Cluster 4, as in the French case (cluster 2),
concerns the consequences of the decreasing quality of the environment, but especially on
the forest. Thus, the problem of acid rain and deforestation appears of primary importance
in the German community. Cluster 2 is also very typical and regroups topics linked to the
problem of the warming of the earth (whereas cluster 1 refers essentially to the air and
water pollution), its origin (CFC, carbon dioxide, etc.), its consequences (topics 19 and
20) and the different remedies, be they legal (topics 31 and 48) or technical (21, 22, 24,
34, 42, 45, 46 and 47).
4. Discussion
Before attempting to compare the French and German future systems of innovation and the
various associated technological trajectories, the first step consists in discussing our
methodology and its possible applications and improvements. In our view, the main
contribution is the identification of several technological clusters based on knowledge
relations. Therefore, by providing a clear and synthetic representation of the different links
between technical, technological, scientific topics and those of a know-how order, our
analysis appears as a possible tool for public or private decision-makers. For example, we
highlight the basis for a generic technology of therapy against cancer or brain diseases, as
well as of the development of electric cars, nuclear energy or a new generation of micro-
scopes. In some cases, our analysis provides clear representations of future technological
trajectories (the electric car in France or the generation of computers with high capacities in
Germany for example) whereas in other cases many possible roads remain open (the electric
car in Germany) with sometimes very surprising trajectories (the development of coral reefs
in order to fight against the falling quality of the environment).
Despite those results, our methodology is only a first step, whose aim is to pave the way
for more targeted methods of technological foresight. A first improvement may lie in using
the whole range of information contained in the Delphi inquiry, and more particularly the
future dates of realisation of the innovations and the major obstacles to it. Indeed this could
give the policymaker a sort of agenda of intervention and highlight the nature of the
intervention (technical, market regulation, cultural, formation, subsidies, etc.). A second
possible improvement of the method consists in combining different kinds of knowledge
through the cooperation of different experts. As a matter of fact, for each technological
cluster it is possible to list the experts, having a good knowledge for one or several topics
of those clusters. Therefore, by providing opportunities for informal technical exchange
within such clusters of experts, governments might try to stimulate communication within
so-called communities of scientists, engineers or business people [2]. Learning processes
could then be developed, allowing a better view of each of the future trajectories, the
emergence of collective and shared representations, and therefore raising greater consensus
about the future. These process benefits could be summarised by the five Cs (commun-
ication, concentration, coordination, consensus and commitment) identified in earlier works
[22,29]. Moreover, for each cluster, the primary communities could be extended by new
methods of co-nomination as it was the case in the British Delphi [30] or by involving
more lay persons and stakeholders as it was the case in the German Delphi, in order to
experiment discursive approaches [31] and maybe, to compare the Technology-Push view
(from the experts) to the Demand-Pull view (from the stakeholders). The deliberate
promotion of knowledge flows within informal circles can contribute an important input
for innovation. To a certain extent, by combining technology, demand and learning
considerations, the process may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Lastly, a third improve-
ment could be to analyse field by field the various degrees of inertia. Inertia could be an
indicator of the variety of the future technological trajectories that one can deduce from
todays generic technologies. This gives us an indication of the lock-in or lock-out
characters of future trajectories, which is of primary importance for public intervention,

whose goal is to select the most desirable trajectories.
Concerning the French and German NSI, the analysis allows us to specify some common
trajectories (struggle against cancer, artificial technologies in life sciences, etc.) as well as
some national specificities (electric car, nuclear energy, environment management, etc.),
reflecting historical, industrial or cultural divergences. We thus have a first picture of the
future NSI. From a more general point of view, it appears that the French system seems to be
more split along the usual distinction between basic science and applied science than the
German one. In Germany on the contrary, the industrial and scientific competences are more
clustered around specific projects (the waste management for example).
5. Conclusion
Besides the aim of triggering learning effects in the whole research and innovation system
[2], an important role, assigned to foresight experiences is to select national priorities. Our
methodology precisely allows the construction of a coherent typology of knowledge-based
innovation, which makes it possible to identify several technological clusters and the
associated trajectories. In our view, the possibility to promptly identify particular trajectories,
and hence to allow public actions before being locked in some suboptimal or not desired
trajectory, is the main contribution of the method. A second contribution is to permit
international comparisons of NSI and thus to stimulate country-wide communication about
the future in order to promote industrial coherence in Europe.
Nevertheless, as we specified earlier, our tool is only a first step in shaping the future.
Other methods are still needed (with interviews of experts and construction of script, for
example) in order to validate those primary results.
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to Caroline Hussler, Patrick Cohendet, Francis Munier and Michel Schubnel
for helpful discussions. I acknowledge the anonymous referees for very useful comments and
arguments, which permit to improve the first version of the paper. Research for this paper was
supported by the French Ministry of Higher Education and Research.
Appendix A. An example of technological matrix: elementary particles in the German

Delphi (40 items, cf. Appendix C)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 1.00 .85 .45 .25 .30 .38 .20 .15 .27 .20 .19 .00 .23 .05 .35 .00 .20 .48 .05 .19
2 .85 1.00 .37 .29 .28 .44 .24 .18 .19 .24 .16 .00 .26 .06 .41 .00 .24 .41 .06 .16
3 .45 .37 1.00 .40 .67 .38 .30 .09 .31 .18 .17 .00 .14 .00 .33 .00 .30 .44 .00 .17
4 .25 .29 .40 1.00 .38 .27 .29 .14 .30 .29 .25 .00 .09 .00 .33 .00 .50 .27 .20 .25
5 .30 .28 .67 .38 1.00 .25 .43 .13 .17 .11 .10 .00 .18 .00 .18 .00 .25 .25 .00 .10
6 .38 .44 .38 .27 .25 1.00 .44 .20 .31 .44 .17 .00 .14 .00 .33 .00 .18 .21 .00 .17
7 .20 .24 .30 .29 .43 .44 1.00 .40 .20 .33 .13 .00 .22 .00 .10 .00 .14 .13 .00 .13
8 .15 .18 .09 .14 .13 .20 .40 1.00 .22 .40 .14 .00 .25 .33 .25 .00 .17 .06 .00 .14
9 .27 .19 .31 .30 .17 .31 .20 .22 1.00 .33 .44 .00 .15 .00 .25 .00 .33 .29 .13 .30
10 .20 .24 .18 .29 .11 .44 .33 .40 .33 1.00 .13 .00 .22 .00 .22 .00 .33 .13 .00 .29
11 .19 .16 .17 .25 .10 .17 .13 .14 .44 .13 1.00 .00 .20 .00 .20 .00 .29 .27 .20 .25
12 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
13 .23 .26 .14 .09 .18 .14 .22 .25 .15 .22 .20 .00 1.00 .00 .17 .00 .22 .31 .00 .20
14 .05 .06 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .33 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .14 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
15 .35 .41 .33 .33 .18 .33 .10 .25 .25 .22 .20 .00 .17 .14 1.00 .00 .57 .31 .14 .20
16 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00
17 .20 .24 .30 .50 .25 .18 .14 .17 .33 .33 .29 .00 .22 .00 .57 .00 1.00 .29 .25 .29
18 .48 .41 .44 .27 .25 .21 .13 .06 .29 .13 .27 .00 .31 .00 .31 .00 .29 1.00 .07 .36
19 .05 .06 .00 .20 .00 .00 .00 .00 .13 .00 .20 .00 .00 .00 .14 .00 .25 .07 1.00 .00
20 .19 .16 .17 .25 .10 .17 .13 .14 .30 .29 .25 .00 .20 .00 .20 .00 .29 .36 .00 1.00
21 .10 .11 .09 .14 .13 .09 .17 .20 .10 .17 .33 .00 .25 .00 .11 .00 .17 .13 .00 .33
22 .05 .06 .10 .17 .00 .10 .00 .00 .11 .20 .00 .00 .00 .00 .13 .00 .20 .14 .00 .17
23 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
24 .19 .16 .08 .11 .10 .17 .13 .14 .08 .29 .25 .00 .20 .00 .09 .00 .13 .27 .00 .43
25 .39 .38 .24 .21 .13 .31 .23 .25 .18 .23 .13 .00 .36 .08 .27 .00 .14 .44 .00 .31
26 .15 .18 .09 .33 .00 .09 .00 .00 .22 .17 .33 .00 .11 .00 .25 .00 .40 .21 .33 .33
27 .05 .05 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .14 .00 .25 .00 .00 .00 .00 .13 .00 .14
28 .24 .28 .25 .22 .20 .15 .11 .13 .17 .25 .22 .00 .63 .00 .30 .00 .43 .33 .00 .38
29 .38 .37 .29 .27 .15 .29 .08 .09 .21 .30 .17 .00 .23 .00 .45 .00 .44 .44 .11 .27
30 .05 .00 .11 .00 .17 .00 .00 .00 .13 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
31 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
32 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
33 .45 .53 .38 .40 .25 .50 .30 .20 .31 .30 .17 .00 .23 .00 .45 .00 .30 .44 .11 .17
34 .20 .24 .30 .50 .43 .08 .14 .17 .20 .14 .29 .00 .22 .00 .38 .00 .60 .29 .25 .13
35 .70 .82 .28 .27 .25 .35 .20 .21 .22 .29 .19 .00 .31 .07 .40 .00 .29 .40 .07 .19
36 .40 .47 .31 .30 .40 .21 .20 .22 .14 .09 .18 .00 .15 .13 .50 .00 .33 .29 .13 .08
37 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .14 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
38 .20 .24 .30 .80 .25 .18 .14 .17 .33 .33 .29 .00 .10 .00 .38 .00 .60 .29 .25 .29
39 .05 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .07 .00 .20
40 .15 .18 .20 .60 .13 .20 .17 .20 .38 .40 .33 .00 .11 .00 .43 .00 .75 .21 .33 .33
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
.10 .05 .00 .19 .39 .15 .05 .24 .38 .05 .00 .00 .45 .20 .70 .40 .00 .20 .05 .15
.11 .06 .00 .16 .38 .18 .05 .28 .37 .00 .00 .00 .53 .24 .82 .47 .00 .24 .00 .18
.09 .10 .00 .08 .24 .09 .00 .25 .29 .11 .00 .00 .38 .30 .28 .31 .00 .30 .00 .20
.14 .17 .00 .11 .21 .33 .00 .22 .27 .00 .00 .00 .40 .50 .27 .30 .00 .80 .00 .60
.13 .00 .00 .10 .13 .00 .00 .20 .15 .17 .00 .00 .25 .43 .25 .40 .00 .25 .00 .13
.09 .10 .00 .17 .31 .09 .00 .15 .29 .00 .00 .00 .50 .08 .35 .21 .00 .18 .00 .20
.17 .00 .00 .13 .23 .00 .00 .11 .08 .00 .00 .00 .30 .14 .20 .20 .00 .14 .00 .17
.20 .00 .00 .14 .25 .00 .00 .13 .09 .00 .00 .00 .20 .17 .21 .22 .00 .17 .00 .20
.10 .11 .00 .08 .18 .22 .00 .17 .21 .13 .00 .00 .31 .20 .22 .14 .00 .33 .00 .38
.17 .20 .00 .29 .23 .17 .00 .25 .30 .00 .00 .00 .30 .14 .29 .09 .00 .33 .00 .40
.33 .00 .00 .25 .13 .33 .14 .22 .17 .00 .00 .00 .17 .29 .19 .18 .00 .29 .00 .33
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
.25 .00 .00 .20 .36 .11 .25 .63 .23 .00 .00 .00 .23 .22 .31 .15 .14 .10 .00 .11
.00 .00 .00 .00 .08 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .07 .13 .00 .00 .00 .00
.11 .13 .00 .09 .27 .25 .00 .30 .45 .00 .00 .00 .45 .38 .40 .50 .00 .38 .00 .43
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
.17 .20 .00 .13 .14 .40 .00 .43 .44 .00 .00 .00 .30 .60 .29 .33 .00 .60 .00 .75
.13 .14 .00 .27 .44 .21 .13 .33 .44 .00 .00 .00 .44 .29 .40 .29 .00 .29 .07 .21
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .33 .00 .00 .11 .00 .00 .00 .11 .25 .07 .13 .00 .25 .00 .33
.33 .17 .00 .43 .31 .33 .14 .38 .27 .00 .00 .00 .17 .13 .19 .08 .00 .29 .20 .33
1.00 .00 .00 .33 .25 .20 .20 .29 .20 .00 .00 .00 .09 .17 .13 .10 .00 .17 .00 .20
.00 1.00 .00 .17 .17 .25 .25 .14 .10 .00 .00 .00 .10 .00 .07 .00 .00 .20 .00 .25
.00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
.33 .17 .00 1.00 .31 .14 .33 .22 .27 .00 .00 .00 .08 .13 .19 .08 .00 .13 .20 .14
.25 .17 .00 .31 1.00 .15 .15 .29 .40 .00 .00 .00 .31 .07 .30 .11 .00 .14 .08 .15
.20 .25 .00 .14 .15 1.00 .20 .29 .20 .00 .00 .00 .20 .17 .21 .10 .00 .40 .00 .50
.20 .25 .00 .33 .15 .20 1.00 .29 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .06 .00 .33 .00 .00 .00
.29 .14 .00 .22 .29 .29 .29 1.00 .36 .00 .00 .00 .25 .25 .33 .17 .17 .25 .00 .29
.20 .10 .00 .27 .40 .20 .00 .36 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .38 .30 .35 .21 .00 .30 .11 .33
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
.09 .10 .00 .08 .31 .20 .00 .25 .38 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .30 .53 .42 .00 .44 .00 .33
.17 .00 .00 .13 .07 .17 .00 .25 .30 .00 .00 .00 .30 1.00 .29 .50 .00 .60 .00 .40
.13 .07 .00 .19 .30 .21 .06 .33 .35 .00 .00 .00 .53 .29 1.00 .57 .00 .29 .00 .21
.10 .00 .00 .08 .11 .10 .00 .17 .21 .00 .00 .00 .42 .50 .57 1.00 .00 .33 .00 .22
.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .33 .17 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00
.17 .20 .00 .13 .14 .40 .00 .25 .30 .00 .00 .00 .44 .60 .29 .33 .00 1.00 .00 .75
.00 .00 .00 .20 .08 .00 .00 .00 .11 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 .00
.20 .25 .00 .14 .15 .50 .00 .29 .33 .00 .00 .00 .33 .40 .21 .22 .00 .75 .00 1.00
Appendix B. An example of dissimilarity analysis: elementary particles in the German

Delphi
Appendix C
Life science (topics Delphi 3)
A. Molecules
1. Elucidation of relationships between the higher-order structures and functions of the nuclei of eukaryotic cells.
2. Establishment of technologies enabling prediction of the three-dimensional structures of proteins from their amino acid
sequences.
3. Establishment of technologies enabling prediction of the functions of proteins from their higher-order structures.
4. Elucidation of molecular mechanisms of particular interactions between proteins or nucleic acids.
5. Elucidation of molecular mechanisms of the heat resistance of proteins.
6. Completion of a comprehensive human protein data library.
7. Determination of the entire DNA base sequences in human chromosomes.
8. Development of methods determining directly DNA base sequences by physical means including X-rays.
9. Thorough elucidation of the structures and functions of signal transducing molecules.
10. Elucidation of the morphogenic and developmental processes of the brain at the molecular level.
11. Elucidation of the mechanisms of the immune response at the level of molecular biology.
Appendix C (continued)
12. Identification of all genes inhibiting cancer and elucidation of the relationships between those genes and carcino-
genesis.
13. Elucidation of the mechanisms of complex effects by more than one compound as seen in herbal medicines.
14. Elucidation of the whole aspect of the mechanisms of sleep.
15. Practical use of bioreactor technologies to produce new physiologically active substances without relying on cell
culture techniques.
16. Development of organic catalysts with better functional characteristics than enzymes.
17. Development of biodevices (protein, transistor, for example) that can be use in electronics.
18. Widespread use of highly integrated biosensor.
19. Development of biometic devices (stable molecules which have the same functions as those of biological molecules and
which are made up with other than peptide).
20. Systematisation of the basis concepts of bio-computer architecture.
B. Cell
21. Elucidation of the functions of immunocytes responsible for the distinguishment between self and no self.
22. Elucidation of the whole aspect of the signal transduction in the carcinogenesis of cells.
23. Common use of the medical treatments for differentiating carcinogenic cells.
24. Elucidation of the mechanisms of replication and (cell) division of eukaryotic cells.
25. Development of technologies for developing germinal stems cells to individuals by themselves.
26. Elucidation of the mechanisms of signal perception in plants.
27. Elucidation of the molecular mechanisms of morphogenesis and being possible to control them artificially controlling
them.
28. Elucidation of weightless physiological actions and development of measures for preventing deterioration in biological
functions caused by the weightless state.
29. Practical use of technologies enabling solar energy to be converted into, or stored as biochemical energy.
30. Development of engineering technologies, such as biomotors, using the biological energy conversion mech-
anisms.
31. Development of technologies enabling the introduction of foreign genes or chromosome fragments into any desired
position in a chromosome in vivo.
32. Development of technologies for synthesising artificial cells that replaces cellular functions.
33. Development of technologies for synthesising organisms that have self-multiplication functions.
34. Development of production systems utilising functions of three-dimensional molecular aggregate such as chloroplasts and
other organelles.
35. Practical uses of technologies for producing useful materials such as amino acids by fixing nitrogen.
36. Development of technologies for synthesising membranes having active transport function that are similar to cellular
membranes.
37. Development of artificial membranes with the similar ability to convert energy as biological membranes.
38. Development artificial membranes systems mimicking the ability of living organisms to receive and transmit
information
39. Development of experimental techniques for recording a single unit activity from a large numbers of neurones simul-
taneously during several days.
C. Tissue and organ

40. Development of medicines preventing the development of cancers
41. Development of highly sensitive techniques for simple and early diagnoses of cancers, using blood serums or
other.
42. Practical use of means to prevent metastasis of cancer.
43. Development of noninvasive encephalometry technologies for analysing macro brain activities.
(continued on next page)
44. Elucidation of the encoding and retrieval mechanisms of memories in the brain.
45. Elucidation of the mechanism of logical reasoning in the brain.
46. Elucidation of basic molecules concerning with higher order functions in the brain.
47. Elucidation of the molecular mechanisms of concerning with organ regeneration.
48. Use of technologies for long term (semipermanent) culture and preservation of organ.
49. Elucidation of the action mechanisms of neuropeptides and other substances in the CNS
50. Development of artificial peripheral nerves.
51. Establishment of technologies that link computers to biological sensory organs.
52. Development of devices with self-recovering capabilities.
53. Development of biosensor capable of processing information.
54. Elucidation of the mechanisms of self-organisation of neural networks.
55. Elucidation of the elasticity of neural networks in interaction with the environment.
56. Development of self-organising electric circuits.
57. Development of materials similar to organisms, which have self-recognising and judging functions.
58. Practical use of artificial organs (pancreases, kidneys, livers, etc.) incorporating human cells and tissues.
59. Clinical application of organ implants by multiplication and regeneration of there owns cells.
60. Development of neuro-computers that have new logical structures based on advanced functions.
D. Individual
61. Elucidation of the outlines of the molecular mechanisms of development and differentiation.
62. Elucidation of the mechanisms which determine the size and shape of a tree.
63. Elucidation of the mechanisms of aging.
64. Elucidation of the whole aspect of the functions of homeobox genes in a vertebrate.
65. Elucidation of the relationship between the brains neurone activities and the thinking processes.
66. Development of artificial intelligence technologies that imitate the thinking processes.
67. Development of technologies that distinguish and recognise three-dimensional and complex patterns.
68. Elucidation of the mechanisms of higher mental activity responsible to intuitive solutions of problems.
69. Scientific elucidation of the presence of ki (psychic energy) such as in sakki (psychic attack).
70. Elucidation of neurobiological basis of feelings.
71. Establishment of methods enabling identification of threshold values for the toxicity of environmental muta-
gens.
72. Development of technologies for measurement the expression of only desired genes in living state of higher
organisms.
73. Development of test methods that can replace to the use of tests animals.
74. Possibility of prevention of Alzheimers disease.
75. Possibility of healing of senile dementias such as Alzheimers disease.
76. Elucidation of the cause of manic-depressive psychosis at the molecular level.
77. Elucidation of the cause of schizophrenia.
78. Full-fledged medical application of the generic manipulation of genetic disorders.
79. Use of artificial manipulation in the expression of genetic information in higher organisms at the individual
level.
80. Establishment of controlling technologies and practical application of technologies that use complex system of
microorganisms to produce useful substances.
81. Development of plants, microorganisms and other organisms that can concentrate specifics ions.
82. Practical use of plants storing carbohydrates in high concentrations as fuel source.
83. Development of technologies for breeding and cultivating organisms in (Cosmo) space.
84. Widespread use of new plant, produced through gene manipulation, as foods.
85. Elucidation of biological homeostasis and development of automatic controllers applying biological homeo-
stasis.
86. Elucidation of the mechanisms of biorhythms in living organism.
87. Possibility of local control over immunity systems.
88. Development of artificial placentas or of technologies for in vitro culture system fetuses of small mammals.
89. Development of interfaces enabling direct linkages between the computer and the brain.
90. Establishment of technologies enabling prediction of the effects of human activities on natural ecosystem.
91. Elucidation of the relationship between molecular evolution and morphogenetic evolution.
92. Elucidation of the molecular basis of animals actions such as contacting, sexual behaviour, etc.
93. Possibility of increased food production by improvement of photosynthetic ability in plants.
94. Practical use of (breeding methods to produce) plants with drought and salt tolerance at a high degree to stop the spread
of desert environments.
95. Elucidation of the mechanisms of extinction of endangered species and establishment of correctives measures.
96. Possibility of classification at the DNA level and clarification of the concept of species.
97. Elucidation of the behaviours of microorganisms in the biosystem and practical use of genetically engineered
microorganisms released into environments.
98. Elucidation of the role of the biosphere with respect to the behaviours of atmospheric carbon.
Elementary particles (topics Delphi 4)
A. Accelerator
1. Realization of electron/positron collider with center-of-mass system energy of 1 TeV or more.
2. Realization of proton/proton collider with center-of-mass system energy of 1000 TeV or more.
3. Practical use of radio frequency accelerators with about 1 GV/m accelerating gradient.
4. Practical use of subminiature accelerators utilizing plasma waves.
5. Practical use of linear accelerators utilizing high-temperature superconducting technologies.
6. Practical use of electron or positron storage rings with stored currents of 10 A or more.
7. Practical use of electron or positron storage rings with an emittance of 0.1 nm radian or less.
8. Development of high intensity and ultra cold neutron sources that enable measurement of neutron life time with an
accuracy of about 0.1 s.
9. Practical use of X-ray free electron lasers with a wavelength of 0.1 100 A.
10. Practical use of technologies for deflecting and focusing particle beams, utilizing new technologies such as
channeling.
11. Practical use of technologies for creating any desired patterns of 10 nm or less by lithography, using synchrotron orbital
radiation (SOR) as a light source.
12. Development of powerful positron sources, and widespread use of positron microscopes.
13. Creation of new elements with atomic numbers of 120 or higher.
14. Development of sub-lightspeed ion beam propulsion rockets.
15. Development of technologies for producing and storing antimatters and energy sources which utilize them.
16. Development of ultra fine particle beam technologies for gene engineering.
17. Determination of feasibility of muon nuclear fusion reactors.
18. Development of quenching processing and nuclear transmutation technology for radioactive waste by high-energy
elementary particles.
19. Development of portable particle accelerators that can be mounted on aircraft and the like for repairing ozone
holes.
20. Widespread medical use of free electron lasers with variable wavelengths.
21. Widespread use of subminiature proton and heavy ion accelerators for medical treatment and diagnosis of deep-body
cancers.
B. Measurement and detection technologies
22. Practical use of analog digital converting devices with an accuracy of 10 b or more and a sampling frequency of 10
GHz or more.
23. Practical use of semiconductor optical detecting devices with more than one million pixels capable of detecting one
photon in a visible light area.
24. Development of semiconductor that do not deteriorate in performance at 100 Mrad radiation.
25. Development of charged-particle detectors with a time resolution of 10 ps.
26. Practical use of computers with a throughput exceedind 10 Tflops.
27. Practical use of large-capacity recording equipment with a writing speed of 1 GB or more per second.
28. Practical use of electro-magnets for high energy physics experiments using light-temperature superconducting
wires.
29. Practical use of on line detectors for measuring the traces of charged particles with an accuracy of 1 mm within a range
of 1 m.
30. Practical use of analysing equipment with a precision ceiling on the order of parts trillion.
31. Widespread use of X-ray microscope as same as that of current electron microscopes.
32. Practical use of hard X-ray holography.
33. Detection of gravitational waves with laser interferometers or the like.
34. Detection of 1.9 K cosmic background neutrino.
35. Determination of the presence of neutrino mass.
36. Construction of proton decay detectors of the million-ton class on the lunar surface.
37. Start of the use of high-resolution spectroscopes with spectrum resolution DE/E of 10 5 or less.
38. Development of method for surveying earths interior by the use of some type of powerful particle beam (e.g.,
neutrino).
39. Practical use of equipment capable of real time X-ray structure analysis for large bio-macromolecular crystals, including
the collection and analysis of diffraction data.
40. Development of new telecommunication systems utilizing (or using) media other than electromagnetic waves (e.g.,
neutrino, etc).
Energy (topics Delphi 5)
A. Primary energies
1. Possibility of a considerable level of simulation of the forming processes of sedimentary basins and the generation,
movement and accumulation of hydrocarbon inside the sedimentary basins.
2. Development of economical recovery of off-shore oil at a depth of 1000 m or more
3. Widespread use of technology for the extraction of oil from oil sand (tar sand).
4. Practical use of technology for the in-situ recovery of oil from oil shale (i.e., recovery in form of oil or gas without
mining the shale itself, directly from the oil shale stratum).
5. Practical use of technology for directs liquefaction of coal.
6. Practical use of alloyed or ceramic materials for high-temperature gas furnaces, capable of withstanding the outlet
gas temperature of 1000 C.
7. Development of super-decomposing processes that turn all vacuum distillation residues, etc. into petrochemical
materials, gasoline and gas oil in a single process by catalysts, reactor, etc. to be developed.
8. Practical use of technologies for producing methane or methanol from carbon dioxide collected from the exhaust gas of
large boilers at thermal power plants and the like by using hydrogen.
9. Development of space solar power generating systems.
10. Practical use of marine temperature difference power generation.
11. Practical use of a wind power generation system of a megawatt scale.
12. Practical use of large area thin-film solar cells with a cell conversion factor at least 20%.
13. Widespread word-wide production of energy using biomass as the raw materials.
14. Practical uses of energy supply systems that convert clean energy in other countries into energy carriers such as
hydrogen to transport them.
15. Widespread use of solar cells for residential power supply.
16. Practical use of innovative passive solar houses which effectively use natural energy.
17. Widespread use of technologies that make it possible to treat and recycle wastes and the like at low cost by using
biotechnologies and to collect energies such as methane.
18. Widespread use of technology to process urine/excrement and various other livestock wastes for use as feed or fuel
(e.g., through methanisation).
19. Development of technology for the conversion of the magma pockets to electrical power.
20. Practical use of high-temperature rock power-generating technologies.
21. Practical use of new uranium enrichment technology (e.g., based on application of lasers).
22. Practical use of new uranium enrichment technology (e.g., based on application of lasers)
23. Development of fusion reactors.
24. Practical use of plants that utilise nuclear reactor heat for producing secondary substances such as hydrogen.
25. Realisation of nuclear power facilities (reactors, nuclear fuel cycle facilities) with a high degree of full automation
through application of remote monitoring and robot systems.
26. Practical use of sophisticated reprocessing technologies capable of group separation.
27. Practical use of reusing technology of low-level radioactive wastes.
28. Practical use of technology for the safe disposal of highly radioactive solid waste.
29. Development of quenching processing technology for radioactive waste based on high-energy elementary par-
ticles.
B. Secondary energy
30. Practical use of manufacturing processes for energy-source hydrogen employing a method of thermochemical
decomposition.
31. Practical use of manufacturing technologies of methane and methanol fuels from coal and biomass by using hydrogen
produced from nuclear reactor heat and solar heat.
32. Widespread use of methanol and other fuel cells as highly efficient, environmentally safe, portable power sources, e.g.,
for electric automobiles.
33. Widespread use of hydrogen motorcars.
34. Widespread use of efficient power generating technologies (Karinas cycle and Rankines cycle) in low temperature
areas.
35. Practical uses of molten salt fuel-cell power generation plants in the 200,000 300,000 kW class, applying coal
gas.
36. Widespread use of 100,000 kW class solid state electrolytic fuel cells for local cogeneration and distributed electric
utility.
37. Practical use of coal-gasifying, combined-cycle power generation plants.
38. Practical use of large-scale combined-cycle power generation based on highly efficient gas turbine.
39. Practical use of the closed MHD (magnetohydrodynamic) compound power generation.
40. Practical use of secondary batteries (e.g., Ni/MH batteries and Li batteries) with a high energy density (200 W h/kg: about
five times that lead batteries).
41. Practical use of superconductive energy storage systems with a capacity (1 million kW h) as large as that pumped storage
hydroelectric plants.
42. Practical use of electric power storage equipment using secondary batteries for smoothing electric power load.
43. Practical use of superconductive power transmission using high-temperature superconductive materials.
44. Practical use of DC power transmission in the 1000 kV class.
45. Widespread use in industries of a power generator and other electrical equipment applying superconduction.
46. Widespread use of electric cars with driving performance equal to that of gasoline motorcars.
47. Widespread use of catalytic combustion technologies for industrial processes.
48. Widespread use of fuel cells in the home for on-site cogeneration (thermal energy and electrical power).
49. Widespread use of high-efficiency heat pumps with a coefficient of performance at least twice that of existing heat
pumps.
50. Establishment of the concept of a thermal industrial complex aimed at total, efficient use of energy.
51. Domination of non-Freon type air-conditioning systems.
Mineral and water resources (topics Delphi 6)
A. Mineral resources
1. Practical use of the solution mining of copper and other metals deep in the earth on the in-situ leaching
technology.
2. Extensive application of biotechnology for extraction and separation of metallic elements
3. Practical use of reduction method in aluminium smelting instead of using electrolysis.
4. Practical use of processes that apply magnetic force, as nonferrous metal casting methods.
5. Substantial shift in photography from sliver chloride film and photographic paper to electronic cameras, resulting in
drastic reduction of demand for silver in this field.
6. Development of high-polymer and other electrically conductive organic materials, which replace copper and aluminium in
certain applications.
7. Practical use of technology for mining manganese nodules from the deep sea bottom.
8. Development of standard refining methods enabling the extraction of valuable components from manganese
nodules.
9. Development of systems that apply laser separating methods, as new refining methods for rare metals.
10. Practical use of technology for recovering helium from air, spurred by rising demand for helium and depletion of other
helium resources.
11. Development of semiquantitative prospecting technology for mineral resources using artificial satellite.
12. The development of new mineral deposits discovered by the exploration based on new geological theories such as plate
tectonic.
13. Development of exploration technology capable of estimating the economic feasibility of mineral deposits with virtually no
drilling.
14. Practical uses of technologies that enable to identify the underground structures three-dimensionally due to advancement
in geophysical survey method such as geotomagraphy.
15. Practical use of ultra-deep drilling and excavating technologies designed to be applied under the condition of up to 400 C
and a depth of 15 km.
16. Practical use of techniques for exploiting new sea-bottom mineral resources (e.g., mud containing heavy metals, deep-sea
hydrothermal deposit and cobalt-rich crust).
17. Practical use of technologies for loosening rock mass by systemic, large-scale cracking for the solution mining and
the development of geothermal energy.
18. Practical use of fully automated (i.e., unmanned mining methods combined with robot technologies).
19. Practical use of economical methods of segregating valuable substances in city garbage for their retrieval.
B. Water resources
20. Practical use of inducing artificial precipitation in event drought.
21. Establishment of technologies for forecasting rainfall with good accuracy, and the effective use of precipitation.
22. Acquirement of knowledge about the occurrence of the phenomena of abnormal precipitation, e.g., heavy rain and drought,
caused by global warming, and implementation of measures for coping with changes in railfall characteristic.
23. Refinement of technology for artificial groundwater recharge, resulting in the conservation of aquifer and rational use of
groundwater.
24. Development of technologies for flowing appropriate volume of sediment to downstream without allowing it to accumulate
in dam reservoirs and for efficiency removing accumulated sand, thus extending the service lives of, and rejuvenating,
dams.
25. Widespread recycling of waste water as sewage by means of sophisticated treatment so that it can be used for
miscallaneous purpose (e.g., flush toilets) in areas suffering from shortage water.
26. Widespread use of recycling systems for sewage and waste water even in small-scale plants, based on advances in
treatment technology.
27. Effective use of water resources with very few cases of leakage of waterworks.
28. Significant reduction in the loss of human lives by virtue of improved technologies for forecasting landslides and
landslips.
29. Establishment of technologies enabling accurate forecast of rainfall and therefore effective dam operation in the case of
floods.
30. Widespread use of levees designed not to break even if overtopping happens with the design of super levees and new
materials to be developed.
31. Practical use of water purification technology for rivers, lakes, and marshes, spurring environmental improvement and
more effective water use.
32. Widespread use of technologies for removing wider range of pollutants than such ordinary pollutants as BOD substances in
the treatment of waste water.
33. Significant improvement in water purifying technologies due to new materials and biotechnologies, thus providing safe,
good-tasting water drink.
34. Improvement in the water quality of closed water bodies such as Tokyo Bay, enabling people to enjoy
swimming.
35. Widespread use of comprehensive systems of management for both water use and flood control based on application of
snowmelt control technology and long-term flood forecasting technology.
36. Practical use of international water transfert systems to enable stable supply of water.
37. Widespread use of inland water such as river water, effluent and ground water for snow thawing or heating and cooling
based on heat pump technology.
38. Quantitative determination of the influences of acid rain on the water system, allowing corrective measures to be
formulated.
39. Development of technologies enabling accurate forecast of environmental impacts caused by very small amounts of
pollutant.
Environment (topics Delphi 8)
A. Global-scale environment
1. Completion of high-accuracy, high-density observation systems capable of determining global trends in the change of
stratosphere for each altitude.
2. Elucidation of quantitative impacts caused by fluorocarbon and the like on changes in the ozone layer.
3. Elucidation of influences exerted by an increase in ultraviolet rays because of damage to the ozone layer on man, animals
and plants for each wavelength of ultraviolet rays.
4. Practical use of materials that replace fluorocarbon and halon, that do not damage the ozone layer and cause no global
warming problem
5. Possibility of determining, with high accuracy, the inventory of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide for each
generating source and each area.
6. Elucidation of precise mechanisms of the emission and extinction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
7. Possibility of an accurate foreast of the magnitude of climate changes due to the global warming at about 50 km mesh
level all over the earth.
8. Elucidation of global and quantitative impacts of the global warming on forests.
9. Possibility of accurate forecast of the sea level rise caused by global warming.
10. Possibility of approximate forecast of the scale of areas affected and damage caused by epidemics due to global
warming.
11. Determination of impacts of global warming on the whole words agricultural production.
12. Wordwide reduction of the emission of carbon dioxide (per year) by 20% of the current level
13. Possibility of controlling an increase in the concentration of the greenhouse effect gases (other than carbon dioxide) in
the atmosphere.
14. Development of high efficient carbon dioxide separating films (separating coefficient of 100 or more).
15. Practical use of technologies for collecting carbon dioxide from large boilers at thermal power plants and the like, and
for dumping it without causing serious environmental impact to the ocean deep (3000 m or deeper), gas fields and
the like.
16. Creation of coral reefs capable of fixing carbon dioxide at the rate of 5 kg/m2 per year or more.
17. Developing of a technique for fixing carbon dioxide in flue gases by using algae having a photosynthesis efficiency that is
twice or more that of the conventional type.
18. Development of a technique for decomposing methane with a concentration of 1% or less turning it into
resources.
19. Elucidation, on the global scale, of the long-distance transportation mechanisms of substances such as SOx and NOx that
are responsible for acid rain.
20. Elucidation of the mechanisms of the impact caused by acid rain to animals and plants.
21. Development of technologies for recovering the acidified lakes and the damaged forests in Europe and North
America.
22. Completion of global automatic and remote monitoring networks for controlling marine pollution and marine
ecosystem.
23. Elucidation of impacts exerted by marine pollutants upon marine ecosystem.
24. Practical use of effective technologies for restoring ocean areas contaminated by tanker accidents (e.g., oil pollution
control technologies utilizing marine microorganisms).
25. Practical use of techniques enabling measurement of the existing quantity of tropical forest biomass.
26. Elucidation of impacts exerted by destroying tropical forest upon climate and weather.
27. Elucidation of impacts exerted by destroying tropical forest upon the ecosystem such as the genes of wild
organisms.
28. Development of effective recovering technologies for reproducing damaged tropical forest ecosystem.
29. Elucidation of impacts exerted by diversification upon climate and weather.
30. Development of biodegradable water-holding materials, for recovering desertification.
31. Completion of internationally unified and standardized for environmental informations, which is based on worldwide
monitoring of pollutants (air, water, etc.) and satellite communications.
B. Regional environment
32. Widespread use of fuel control technologies in virtually all types of automobiles, capable of meeting the emission control
standard for nitric oxide on the order of 0.1 0.2 g/km.
33. Quantitative elucidation of the effects of heavy metals and other substances on mechanisms of enrichment in ecosystems
and biological eutrophication, for estimating and forecasting the effects of progressing water equality deterioration in closed
water areas on water ecosystems.
34. Widespread use of techniques for the preservation of water quality and environmental planning applying natural purifying
mechanisms of rice paddies, irrigation ponds, waterways, etc.
35. Development of a compact, waste water treatment system applying biotechnology, enabling highly efficient treatment of
hardly decomposable and harmful substances.
36. Development of bio-reactor system utilizing bacteria capable of decomposing algae that cause water bloom or red tide, and
microorganisms which eat and decompose them.
37. Development of low-noise engines and tires, and sound-absorbing construction materials reducing automobile noise within
the environmental standard for the area specified to be for resident.
38. Widespread use of product design techniques easy to recover and separate materials of disposed durable consumer goods
for recycling purposes.
39. Practical use of biodegradable plastics for containers and packages of shorter-term use which can be completely decomposed
by anaero microorganisms.
40. Development of technologies for turning harmful wastes into harmless without causing any secondary pollution.
41. Achievement of heat efficiency for waste fuel power generation plant that exceed the current value (Present value: 12%).
42. Establishment of assessing socio-economic damage/loss because of the destruction of natural environment due to soil
contamination and land subsidence and incorporation of its countermeasures in regulatory system.
43. Elucidation how a long-term exposure effects human beings to trace quantities of most of the harmful chemical substances
in ordinary environment.
44. Determination of presence or absence of trans-generation effects of environmental contamination on human beings.
45. Accumulation of knowledge concerning the fate of hard degradable chemical substances after release into the environment
in advance of their production.
46. Establishment of techniques, models, and data bases for biological testing and measurement of the harmfulness of
chemical substances resulting in the construction and screening systems for harmful chemicals substances.
47. Development and application of index animals and plants to be used in measurement of severity of contamination in
natural environments (air, land, water) as part of environmental monitoring and warning system.
48. Establishment of an evaluation system for man-made microorganisms which are created by biotechnologies including gene
manipulation in open systems, and utilization of organism useful for purifying the environment.
49. Widespread use (e.g., globally more than 10%) of automobiles as urban transportation system (e.g., electric automobiles)
Which do not cause conventional atmospheric or noise pollution.
50. Practical use of techniques for on-site detoxification of soil contaminated with heavy metals or chemical substances (e.g.,
residue of agricultural chemicals).
References
[1] K. Blind, K. Cuhls, H. Grupp, Current foresight activities in central Europe, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change
60 (1999) 15 35.
[2] H. Grupp, H. Linstone, National technology foresight around the globe, resurrection and new paradigms,
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 60 (1999) 85 94.
[3] B.R. Martin, Foresight in science and technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (1995) 139 168.
[4] H.A. Simon, Models of Bounded Rationality: Behavioral Economics and Business Organization, MIT Press,
Cambridge, 1982.
[5] N. Rosenberg, Perspectives on Technology, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1976.
[6] R.R. Nelson, S.G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Belknap-Harvard Univ. Press,
Harvard, 1982.
[7] G. Dosi, Technology paradigms and trajectories, Res. Policy 11 (1982) 147 162.
[8] A.K. Klevorick, R.C. Levin, R.R. Nelson, S.G. Winter, On the source and significance of interindustry
differences in technological opportunities, Res. Policy 24 (1995) 185 205.
[9] W.M. Cohen, D. Levinthal, Innovation and learning: The two faces of R&D, Econ. J. 99 (1989) 569 596.
[10] D. Foray, The dynamic implications of increasing returns: technological change and path dependent ineffi-
ciency, Int. J. Ind. Organ. 15 (1997) 733 752.
[11] C. Antonelli, The economics of path-dependence in industrial organization, Int. J. Ind. Organ. 15 (1997)
643 675.
[12] P. David, Dependance du chemin et previsibilite des systemes dynamiques avec externalites de reseau
localisees: un paradigme pour leconomie holistique, in: D. Foray, C. Freeman (Eds.), Technologie et
Richesse des Nations, Economica, Paris, 1992, pp. 241 273.
[13] P. David, Clio and the Economics of QWERTY, Am. Econ. Rev. 75 (1985) 332 337.
[14] W.B. Arthur, Competing technologies, increasing returns and lock-in by small historical events, Econ. J. 99
(1989) 116 131.
[15] R. Cowan, Tortoises and hare: Choices among technologies of unknown merit, Econ. J. 101 (1991)
801 814.
[16] R. Cowan, Nuclear power reactors: a study in technological lock-in, J. Econ. Hist. 5 (1990) 541 567.
[17] P. Ronde, Inertie: un comportement optimal en fin de trajectoire technologique, Econ. Appl. 1 (2001)
201 224.
[18] P. Garrouste, Filieres techniques et economie industrielle: lexemple de la forge, Presses Universitaires de
Lyon, Lyon, 1984.
[19] D. Foray, Innovation technologique et dynamique industrielle, lexemple de la fonderie, Presses Universi-
taires de Lyon, Lyon, 1987.
[20] J. Benhaim, P. Schembri, Orientations du changement technique, Econ. Appl. XLVIII (3) (1985) 39 69.
[21] G. Rowe, G. Wright, The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis, Int. J. Forecast. 15
(1999) 353 375.
[22] B.R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system, experiences in
Britain, Australia and New Zealand, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 60 (1999) 37 54.
[23] BETA, Enquete sur les technologies du futur par la methode Delphi, Final report, 1995.
[24] A. Quevreux, Les dynamiques technologiques pour lan 2010 en France (lapproche par lenquete Delphi),
STI Rev. 17 (1996) 45 74.
[25] J.A. Heraud, K. Cuhls, Current foresight activities in France, Spain, and Italy, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
Change 60 (1999) 55 70.
[26] E. Zuscovitch, La dynamique du developpement des technologiesElements dun cadre conceptuel, Rev.
Econ. (1985) 5.
[27] P. Ronde, Technological clusters with a knowledge-based principle: evidence from a Delphi investigation in
the French case of the life sciences, Res. Policy 30 (2001) 1041 1057.
[28] P. Ronde, Mise en evidence dune cartographie des technologies du futur sur la base dune enquete Delphi:
une application au domaine du vivant, Rev. Econ. Ind. 91 (2000) 75 92.
[29] J. Irvine, B.R. Martin, Foresight in Science, Picking the Winners Pinter Publishers, London, UK, 1984.
[30] M. Nedeva, L. Georghiou, D. Loveridge, H. Cameron, The use of co-nomination to identify expert partic-
ipants for technology foresight, R&D Manage. 26 (2) (1996) 155 168.
[31] K. Cuhls, Opening up foresight processesParticipation and networking, Econ. Soc. 5 (2000) 21 48.
The author has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publica

Delphi Analysis of National Specificities in Selec

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Delphi Analysis of National Specificities in Selec

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

70 (2003) 419 448

Delphi analysis of national specificities in

Keywords: Technological clusters; Delphi analysis; Foresight process

* Tel.: +33-3-90-24-21-94; fax: +33-3-90-24-20-71.

2. Methodology and data

In the evolutionary tradition, radical uncertainty linked to the hypothesis of bounded

3. Results of the clustering analysis: a French/German comparison

3.1. The life sciences

The first cluster is strongly linked to methods against cancer. It is a particularly

3.2. The sector of energy

For the French case, we find five clusters:

3.3. Mineral and water resources

The analysis of the German case implies to distinguish three clusters:

We obtain a similar partition in the French case:

3.4. Elementary particles

The German partition:

The French partition

characters of future trajectories, which is of primary importance for public intervention,

Appendix A. An example of technological matrix: elementary particles in the German

Appendix B. An example of dissimilarity analysis: elementary particles in the German

Life science (topics Delphi 3)

C. Tissue and organ

Elementary particles (topics Delphi 4)

Energy (topics Delphi 5)

Mineral and water resources (topics Delphi 6)

Environment (topics Delphi 8)

Anda mungkin juga menyukai