Budi Hikmat
Chief Economist & Director for Investor Relation
PT Bahana TCW Investment Management
Investment Strategist &
Wealth Educator
Lahir Tasikmalaya 7 Mei 1966. FEUI @1985. Penerima Ford
Foundation Study Award Scholarship untuk Program Master Social
Science (Economics) di National University of Singapore 1992.
Bekerja untuk Bahana sejak Desember 1997. Termasuk Best
Indonesia Domestic Economist (Asia Money Magazine, 2003).
PT Bahana TCW
Investment
Management
Best Asset & Fund
Manager Indonesia
Ministry of Finance
Republic of Indonesia
60% 40%
3
Macroeconomic Maps
External Aging society, global warming, de-leveraging, wealth inequality, multi-polar cold war
Global &
Regional Trump POTUS45 Fed hawkish Brexit Stimulus ECB, BoJ & BoE China economic stabilization
Dynamics
Rate still lower, disruptive innovation, currency wars, end of commodity super-cycle
Domestic Populist Politics & Resource Curse: The Risk of Middle-Income Trap 2030
Economic Prudence monetary policies
Fiscal reforms: Subsidy system & Supply-side Revolution
Challenges &
Policy
Tax amnesty: Revenue Legal & Tourism, Re- Macro- Financial
Responses
Reforms Admin industrialization prudential deepening
Equity
Current account deficit
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Memasuki Era Dollar Perkasa
Krismon Krisis Krisis Krisis utang
Asia utang AS utang Negara
Eropa Berkembang
Index $ Global
Index Commodity
6
2016: Penghargaan untuk Reformasi
Liquidity-driven rally
SUN
JCI
JCI
IDR
SUN10yr
7
Anatomy of Steepening Yield
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Ekonomi AS Terus Menguat
Wage
growth
ConsConf
9
Fed Quantitative & Qualitative Tightening
Fed
ECB
BoJ
10
China Agresif Serap Kelebihan Kapasitas
M1growth
11
SHCOMP: Victim of Leverage, Better Outlook
12
Fiscal Reform: Anchor of Credibility
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2017 Budget: Deficit 2.4% GDP
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Komoditas Pacu Daya Beli
15
IHSG Ditopang Daya Beli & Likuiditas
16
Dollar & Deficit Minyak Lemahkan Rupiah
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Expecting Higher Inflation
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