Military Aviation

Fleet & MRO Forecast 2017

Presented to the 2017 MRO Americas Military Conference
Orlando, FL

Daniel Katz
Director, Defense Analysis and Data
Aviation Week Intelligence and Data Services
Arlington, VA
Scope and Methodology
Military Aircraft Database:
Regional analysts update current fleets and 10-yr. projections for
deliveries/retirements year-round.
Counts are In-Service Fleets (ISFs)
Forecast Scope: Western, Piloted Aircraft
Forecast Data Cutoff: October 1, 2016
Demand-based, intelligence-driven, discrete approach.
Sources: Aviation Week reporting; Reputable publications and periodicals;
Government documents; Extensive communication with military and contractor
officials.
MRO Data:
20K+ data points, with thousands of recent actuals.
Utilization; Field Mx salaries; Field Mx material costs; Costs for airframe, engine
and component depot maintenance.
MRO Algorithms, informed by trends and issues, combine fleet and MRO
data to generate projections for annual MRO demand.

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Categorization: Regions and MRO
Regions: MRO Categories:
North America Field Maintenance

Latin America and Caribbean Deport Maintenance for:

Airframe
Europe
Engine
Middle East and North Africa
Components (11 Categories):
Sub-Saharan Africa Mission Avionics
Eurasia Cockpit Systems
Landing Gear
South Asia
Wheels and Brakes
Asia-Pacific APU
Dynamic Components,
Hydraulics
Pneumatics
Fuel system,
Electrical System
Other

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Categorization: Missions
Fighter C4ISR Rotary Wing - Attack
Air Superiority Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Rotary Wing - Scout
Attack ISR Armed Reconnaissance
Multi-role Electronic Warfare Trainer Reconnaissance
Multi-role (ship-based) ISR Trainer Light Attack
Electronic Attack Command and Control (C2) Observation
Reconnaissance Communications Node Rotary Wing - Transport
Flight Demonstration Psychological Operations (PsyOps) General
Combat-Capable Trainer Border Surveillance Special Operations
Adversary Trainer Stand-off Jammer Assault
Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Maritime Amphibious
Advanced Jet Trainer/Light Fighter Search and Rescue Search and Rescue
Basic Flight Trainer/Light Attack Aircraft Reconnaissance Combat Search and Rescue
Introductory Flight Trainer Surveillance Medevac
Heavy-Body Trainer Surveillance (Anti-Submarine Warfare) VIP
Adversary Trainer Patrol Trainer
Flight Demonstration Patrol (Anti-Submarine Warfare) Rotary Wing - Maritime
Transport Bomber General
General Air-Refueling Tanker Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)
VIP Gunship Airborne Early Warning (AEW-RW)
Special Operations Forces (SOF) Firefighter Airborne Mine Countermeasures (AMCM)
Search and Rescue (SAR) Research Search and Rescue (SAR)
Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Flight Inspection Rotary Wing - Electronic Warfare
Medevac Target Drone Rotary Wing - Firefighter
Target Tug
Chase Plane

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Aircraft Characteristics (New)
Aircraft Category: Lift Type:
Amphibian Fixed-Wing
Bomber Rotary-Wing
Business Jet
Weight Class
Civil Propeller
Fixed-Wing: Heavy. Medium,
Commercial Jet
Light, Utility, Light Utility
Fighter
Rotary-Wing: Heavy, Medium,
Helicopter
Intermediate, Light
Tilt Rotor
Light 1-2 Seater Propulsion:
Military C4ISR (purpose-built) Jet

Military Cargo Turbine

Military Maritime Patrol (purpose- Piston

built) Number of Engines: 1-8
Tiltrotor

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Global Toplines: 2017-2026

Global ISF: 41,605 in 2017, 42,835 by 2027

Deliveries: 7,899
Retirements: 7,094
Open Requirements: 834 aircraft
10-yr. MRO Market: $784 billion
2017: $76.5B
2026: $79.6B
Breakdown by MRO Type:
Field Maintenance: 41%
Airframe Depot Maintenance: 19%
Engine Depot Maintenance: 8%
Component Depot Maintenance: 32%

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Global ISF by Region: 2017

Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Region - 2017

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

-
North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East & Latin America South Asia Africa (sub- Eurasia Unknown
North Africa Saharan)

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Global ISF by Mission: 2017
Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Mission - 2017
12000

RW-Medium

10000 RW-Light

RW-Intermediate

8000 RW-Heavy

Utility

6000 Medium

Light Utility

4000 Light

Heavy

2000 ALL

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Global ISF by Manufacturer: 2017

Top 10 Aircraft Manufacturers ISF - 2017

15% Boeing
Lockheed Martin
32% Sikorsky
Bell Helicopter
12% Airbus
Beechcraft
Northrop Grumman
Leonardo
9%
Cessna
2% Dassault
2% 8% Other
4%
3% 5% 8%

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Top New Aircraft Manufacturers:
2017-2026
New-Build Aircraft Deliveries - Top 10 Manufacturers: 2017-2026

Lockheed Martin
1,697 1,733 Sikorsky
Unknown
Boeing
176 Airbus
KAI
193
TAI
237 1,041
NH Industries
Bell Helicopter
238
Pipistrel
250 Other
498
985
851

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MRO Demand by Region:
2017-2026
MRO Demand by Region: 2017-2026
2% 1%

2%

10%

North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Middle East & North Africa
15%
Latin America
South Asia
54%
Africa (sub-Saharan)

16%

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U.S. Toplines: 2017-2026

Total ISF: 13,730 in 2017, 13,753 by 2027

Deliveries: 4,484
Retirements: 4,457
Open Requirements: 214 aircraft
10-yr. MRO Market: $403.7 billion
2017: $39.8B
2026: $41.3B
Breakdown by MRO Type:
Field Maintenance: 41%
Airframe Depot Maintenance: 20%
Engine Depot Maintenance: 8%
Component Depot Maintenance: 31%

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U.S. ISF by Mission: 2017
U.S. Aircraft ISF by Mission Category: 2017
4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

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U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017
U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017
6000

RW-Medium
5000
RW-Light

4000 RW-
Intermediate
RW-Heavy

3000 Utility

Medium
2000 Light Utility

Light
1000
Heavy

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U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
U.S. MRO Demand by Operator: 2017-2026
1% 1%
1%

11%

United States Air Force

United States Navy
14%
United States Army
United States Marine Corps
United States Coast Guard
54%
United States SOCOM
Other

18%

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U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
Top 10 Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
S-70/H-60 $43.5 B

F/A-18 $34.6 B

C-130 $30.9 B

F-35 $26.7 B

C-135 $24.0 B

C-17 $21.2 B

F-15 $21.1 B

F-16 $17.7 B

AH-64 $16.8 B

F-22 $14.3 B

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 U.S. Fighters
U.S. Fighter Families by U.S. Fighter Families by MRO
ISF: 2017 Demand: 2017-2026
1400 40

35
1200

30
1000

25

U.S. $ Billions
800

20

600
15

400
10

200
5

0 0
F/A-18 F-16 F-15 A-10 F-35 F-22 Harrier A-6 F/A-18 F-35 F-15 F-16 F-22 A-10 Harrier A-6

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U.S. Trainers and Light Fighters

U.S. Trainers/Light Combat Top Five Trainer/Light Combat

Aircraft Families by ISF: 2017 Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO
800 Demand: 2017-2026
5000
700
4500
600

U.S. $ Millions
4000

3500
500
3000
400
2500

300 2000

1500
200
1000
100
500

0 0
F-5 (T-38) PC-7/9 (T- Hawk Beechjet King Air
6)

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U.S. Transports
U.S. Transport Aircraft by Top 10 Transport Families
Weight Class and Family: by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-
2017 2026
DHC-8 25
600
DC-9
Astra
F27/Fk50
500 DHC-2
20
L-1011
G-II/G-III
C212
400 CN235/C295

U.S $ Billions
G-IV 15
DHC-6
C-27/G.222
300
757
Metro
10
Do 328
200 Learjet 31/35/36
G-V
737
E-2/C-2 5
100 Citation Model 560
C-5
King Air
C-17
0 0
C-130
Heavy Medium Light Utility

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U.S. C4ISR Aircraft
U.S. C4ISR Aircraft by Top 10 C4ISR Families by U.S.
Submission and Family: 2017 MRO Demand: 2017-2026
10
200
9
180
8
160
747
7
140 C-130
Global Express

U.S. $ Billions
6
120
E-2/C-2
DHC-7 5
100
DHC-8 4
80
Metro
60 P-3 3

707
40 2
C-135
20 PC-12 1
U-2
0 0
King Air

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U.S. Maritime Aircraft
U.S. Maritime Aircraft ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017-2026
250

200

150
Civil Propeller

Military Maritime Patrol

(purpose-built)
100 Military Cargo

Commercial Jet

50

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

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U.S. Maritime Aircraft
U.S. Maritime Aircraft by Type: 2017-2026
250

200

E-9A
P-3 LRT
HC-130H
150
P-3 AEW
Beech 350 MSA
HC-27J
100 P-3C
HC-130J
HC-144
P-8A
50

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

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U.S. Maritime Aircraft
U.S. Maritime Aircraft MRO Demand: 2017-2026
8

6
U.S $ Billions

0
737 C-130 P-3 CN235/C295 C-27/G.222 King Air DHC-8

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 U.S. Rotary-Wing Aircraft
Top 10 U.S. Rotary-Wing Top Five U.S. Rotary-Wing
Types by ISF: 2017 families by MRO Demand:
1000 2017-2026
900 45

800 40

700 35

U.S $ Billions
600 30

500 25

400 20

300 15

200 10

100 5

0 0
S-70/H-60 AH-64 V-22 CH-47 Huey

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Thank You

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