9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps

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Forecastinginfrastructureinvestmentneedsfor50countries,7sectorsthrough2040
SUBMITTEDBYCHRISHEATHCOTEONTHU,08/10/2017

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TheGlobalInfrastructureOutlookisalandmarkcountrybasedonlinetoolandreportdevelopedbytheGlobalInfrastructureHubwithOxfordEconomics,
whichforecastsinfrastructureinvestmentneedsacross50countriesandsevensectorsto2040.

Althoughtherearealreadyforecastsforinfrastructureinvestmentinthemarket,thepublicandprivatesectorsindicatedtheirneedforfresh,country
leveldata.Outlookwascreatedtomeetthatknowledgegap.

Forthefirsttimewehavedataaboutwhateachcountryneedstospendineachsector,andimportantlythegapbetweenwhatneedstobespentand
currentspendingtrends.

Whatdotheresultsshow?

By2040,theglobalpopulationwillgrowbyalmost2billionpeoplea25%increase.Ruraltourbanmigrationwillcontinuewiththeurbanpopulation
growingby46%,triggeringmassivedemandforinfrastructuresupport.

Outlookforecaststhatglobalinfrastructureinvestmentneedstoreach$94trillionby2040 tokeeppacewithprofoundeconomicanddemographic
changesacrosstheglobe.

AddtheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)ofuniversalprovisionofcleanwater,sanitation,andelectricity,andthetotalcostrisesto$97trillion.

Theanalysisrevealsashortfallinneededspendingof$18trillion19%oftheforecastneed.

ClosingthegapandmeetingtheSDGswillrequirespendingasaproportionofglobalGDPtogrowfromthecurrentlevelof3%to3.7%.

Beyondtheseglobalfiguresarethecountryandsectorspecificstoriesthatrepresenttherealchallengeoffindingandfundinginfrastructureprojectsthat
enhancepeopleslives.

Keyfindings

1.OverhalfofglobalinfrastructureinvestmentneedsareinAsia.

ThreeofthefivecountrieswiththegreatestinfrastructureneedareinAsia(China,IndiaandJapan),withthosecountriescomprising39%ofglobal
infrastructureinvestmentneeds.Chinaaloneisexpectedtoneed$28trillionininfrastructureinvestment,whichismorethanhalfofAsiastotalneedsand

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9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps
30%ofglobalneeds.

2.TheUnitedStateshasthelargestinvestmentgap,forecasttobe$3.8trillion.

TheUnitedStatesisforecasttohavethelargestinfrastructure
investmentgapthedifferencebetweeninvestmentneedsand
currenttrendsininvestmentof$3.8trillion,doublethenext
largestofChinaat$1.9trillion,followedbyBrazilat$1.1trillion
andRussiaat$0.7trillion.

3.OncurrenttrendsininvestmenttheworldwillfallshortofmeetingtheSDGsby2030.

Outlooklookedspecificallyatthegoalstoensureuniversalaccesstocleanwaterandsanitation,andelectricitysupply(SDGs7.1,6.1and6.2).

Whatitfoundisconcerningandshouldbeaglobalwakeupcall.

Ouranalysisshowstomeetthesegoalswouldcost$5.8trillionfromnowuntil2030.Weestimatethat$3.5trillionofthisfiguremorethan50%will
notbemetby2030.

4.Themajorityofglobalinfrastructureinvestmentgapisintheroadandelectricitysectors.

Outlookestimatesan$8trillioninfrastructureinvestmentgapinroads,whichrepresentsmorethanhalfofthetotalglobalinfrastructureinvestmentgap.
Althoughtheelectricitysectorrepresentsthesecondlargestinfrastructureinvestmentgapat$2.9trillion,themajorityofthatgapisindevelopingand
emergingcountries.

Innovativemethodology

Outlookinvolvedoverayearsworkapplyingaround50datasetsandauniqueapproachtoforecastinginfrastructureinvestmentneeds.

Weappliedadetailedtopdownstatisticalapproach,whichusedsevenbespokeeconometricmodelstoproduce350forecastscoveringeachofthe50
countriesandsevensectors.Theseforecaststakeintoaccountpastspending,countriesspecificeconomicanddemographiccharacteristics,andthe
currentqualityofinfrastructure.

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Outlookisaccessedviaourreportandthroughouronlinetoolwheredatacanbecustomizedanddownloaded:http://outlook.gihub.org.

WeanticipatethatOutlookwillbecomeausefulsourceofdataandguidancetogovernmentsseekingtoreformandimprovetheirinfrastructure
markets.

Itwillcomplementourothertools:

InfraCompass,atoolidentifyingthekeydriversofsuccessfulplanninganddelivery,andallowsjurisdictionstofocusonthemostimportantdrivers
affectingtheirinfrastructuremarket.
ProjectPipeline,anonlineplatformwithearlystagedataongovernmentinfrastructureprojectstohelptheprivatesector.
AllocatingRisksinPublicPrivatePartnerships,aguidetotypicalriskallocationininfrastructureprojectsbetweenpublicandprivatepartners.
MultilateralDevelopmentBankReportforG20,keyadvicetoG20onhowthesebankscanworktocrowdinprivatefinanceforpublic
infrastructure.
ConcessionManagementofPublicPrivatePartnershipProjects,practicalguidelinesforprojectauthoritiestohelpconcessionmanagementof
PPPstobereleasedlaterthisyear.

YoucanalsofollowtheGlobalInfrastructureHubonTwitter.

Disclaimer:ThecontentofthisblogdoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBankGroup,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,stafforthe
governmentsitrepresents.TheWorldBankGroupdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedata,findings,oranalysisinthispost.

RelatedPostsfromtheGIHub:

InfraCompass:Helpinggovernmentssettheirinfrastructurepoliciesintherightdirection

TheGlobalInfrastructureProjectPipeline:Linkingprivateinvestorswithpublicinfrastructureprojects

Afieldguidetoinfrastructure

Comments

Iwishthesestepswillbe
SUBMITTEDBYMEHEDIHASANONTHU,08/10/201711:55

Iwishthesestepswillbeexecutedwithmassparticipation.

reply

Theasiancountriesarein
SUBMITTEDBYLIAQATHAYATONTHU,08/10/201713:29

Theasiancountriesareinshortageoftechnicalmanpowerforcomplextrades?Howtheycancopethissituation

reply

Really,globalproduction
SUBMITTEDBYDR.MOHAMEDTAHERABDELRAZIKHAMADA,PH.DONTHU,08/10/201713:42

Really,globalproductionshouldmatchwithpopulationgrowth,speciallyin
thecriticalprojectsofinfrastructuresuchascleanwater,sanitation,andelectricity.ThisabovestatisticalarticlewhichiswrittenbyMr.Chris
Heathcoteisstatisticalglobalwakeupcall,anditshouldbefollowedbyother
globalreminders.
Mostlythedevelopingcountriesarethegreatlyaffectedbytheglobalinfrastructureinvestmentgap.
Projectsshouldbemadetosupportprivatesectorsandspreadtherealknowledgeoffamilyplanningaccompaniedrealeducationandhealth
programes
Governmentsandworldagencies,mainlytheWorldBank,shouldpromotethe
linksinpublic,private,partnershipprojects(PPPS)toavoidanyexpectedrisks
whetherfinaciallyorstructurallyrisks.
YoursVeryRespectfully,
Dr.MohamedTaherAbdelrazikHamada,Ph.D
RetiredProfessoratStrayerUniversity,USA
[*editedforprivacy*]

reply

Canyougivethebreakdowns
SUBMITTEDBYPAULMUKOKIONSUN,08/27/201714:37

CanyougivethebreakdownsofAfriac'sinfrastructuregap(needsvscurrentinvestmentneeds)forAfrica,countrybycountr,andsectorbysector.I
amstudyingPhDinthisarea,butdon'thavethelatestdata.

reply

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9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps

Migrationfromruralplaces
SUBMITTEDBYAIGULONTHU,08/31/201709:04

Migrationfromruralplacescouldbestoppedifunemploymentissuesaresolvedinstilldevelopingcountries,especiallyinruralremoteareas.Agood
infrastructuresolvesonlyinfrustructureissues.Whataboutagoodandclearvisionofhowtomaintainthatbuiltinfrustructure?Withoutgoodhuman
resourcesitmightnotbethatsustainable.Thatismyopinion.

reply

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