INDUSTRIAL AND MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

MBA 651:QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING

ASSIGNMENT # 03 (2017-2018, Sem-I)
NOTE GROUP 13
01) It is a group work hence (i) write your group #, (ii) name of group members, (iii) roll # of group
members.
02) There are THREE (03) questions and total marks is FIFTY (50) marks and marks each question is
also given.
03) Marks and credit is there for methodology rather than the final answer only, hence do your
calculations carefully and if required draw the diagrams/graphs clearly and legibly.
04) Each group is required to submit the hard copy of the assignment ONLY (no soft copies allowed).
05) Assignment given on 24-Aug-2017 (Thursday) during class.
06) Assignment to be submitted on 02-Sep-2017 (Saturday) before we start the class.
07) Submit the question paper also with all details filled up as required.
08) Group #: 13
09) Group members
S No. Name Roll Signature
01 Rohan Gokhale 17125045
02 Rohen Aggarwal 17125046
03 Romila Joshi 17125047
04 Salil Ostwal 17125048
05 Sanath Shetty 17125049

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 ****************** START OF QUESTION PAPER ******************

Question # 01/A_03 (20 marks)

The game of dart is played by throwing a dart at a board and receiving a score corresponding to the

number assigned to the region in which the dart lands. For a novice player, it seems reasonable to

assume that the probability of the dart hitting a particular region is proportional to the area of that region,

which means a bigger area has a higher probability of being hit. Also assume that the so called

concentric regions are equally spaced. Then with this simple assumption find the probability of scoring

a point of i. For your convenience we have the drawing as shown below of the dart board along with

the points one would getting hitting the designated areas which are concentric circles as shown in the

diagram below.

1 (R1)

2 (R2)

(R5) 5 3(R3)

4(R4)

Ans)

Assumption: The dart shall always hit the board

As all the circles are equally spaced, the difference between radius of concentric circles shall be constant

I.e. R1-R2 =R2-R3 = R3-R4 = R4-R5

Let R1 be the radius of the outermost circle. The dart hitting the area of the board between the

circumferences of circles R1 and R2 shall award 1 point to the candidate.

Similarly, the radius of inner circle shall be R2 and so on.

Now the probability that the participant shall score 1 point

(Area between circles R1 and R2)/ (Area of circle R1) = (R1 - R2) / R1

( in the numerator and denominator shall cancel each other)

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Similarly,

The probability that hell score 2 points shall be

(Area between circles R2 and R3)/ (Area of circle R1) = (R2 - R3) / R1

The probability that hell score 3 points shall be

(Area between circles R3 and R4)/ (Area of circle R1) = (R3 - R4) / R1

The probability that hell score 4 points shall be

(Area between circles R4 and R5)/ (Area of circle R1) = (R4 - R5) / R1

The probability that hell score 5 points shall be

(Area of the circle R5)/ (Area of circle R1) = R5 / R1

If we consider the values as follows:

R5 = 1, R4 = 2, R3 = 3, R2 = 4, R1 =5,

Then Probability of scoring 1 point shall be (5 - 4)/5 = 9/25

Probability of scoring 2 points (4 - 3)/25 = 7/25

Probability of scoring 3 points (3 - 2)/25 = 5/25

Probability of scoring 4 points (2 - 1)/25 = 3/25

Probability of scoring 5 points (1)/25 = 1/25

Thus, the probability of scoring point i in this case shall be

((6 i) - (5 i) ) / 5, 1 i 5

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Question # 02/A_03 (10 marks)
A board is covered with congruent rectangles and a coin, the diameter of which is less than the smaller
side of a rectangle, is thrown on the board. What is the probability that it will be partly in one rectangle
and partly in another?
Ans) Let there be n such congruent rectangles on the board.

Consider the figure drawn herein:

The dimensions of the rectangle are L x B (L, B > 2r)
Let the board be covered with congruent such rectangles
Let r be the radius of the coin
Now, for the coin to be completely within the rectangle L x B (at the max, the sides of rectangle being
a tangent to the coin), the center of the coin should be at a perpendicular distance of r or more from the
sides of the rectangle i.e the centre of the coin shall lie within an imaginary rectangle
(L -2r) x (B 2r) as depicted in the figure.

The center of the coin can otherwise land anywhere on the L x B rectangle.
The probability that the coin is completely within the rectangle shall therefore be
(n x (L-2r) (B-2r)) / (n x L x B) for n rectangles which = ((L-2r) (B-2r)) / (L x B)
The probability that it will partly be in one rectangle and partly in another shall hence be
1 - (((L-2r) (B-2r)) / (L x B))

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Question # 03/A_03 (20 marks)
Suppose an urn contains balls of which are black and ( ) are white. A sample of size is

draw. Find the probability that the ball drawn is black given that the sample contains black balls.

You have to consider both the cases such that sampling is done (i) with replacement and (ii) without

replacement.

Ans)

Case i) with replacement

In a sample of n balls, number of black balls k, no of white balls n k

The probability that the ball drawn is black = k /n

As we replace the ball every time after it is drawn, the probability of ball being black is same all

the time = (No. of black balls) / (Total No of balls) = k / n

Case ii) Without Replacement

In a sample of n balls there are k black balls, and n k white balls.

Now, these balls can be drawn in n! ways (Lets assume for a moment that all the balls are

unique/numbered)

For eg. B1 W2 B2 is one of the orders in which balls are drawn and not replaced back (B implies a

black ball and W a white ball, in the above case B1 is the 1st ball to be drawn and so on)

Now, each ball is equally likely to occupy any of the position in n! number of permutations.

i.e B1 shall occupy 1st, 2nd & 3rd position each (3-1)! Times, B2 shall occupy 1st, 2nd & 3rd position each

(3-1)! Times, W2 shall occupy 1st, 2nd & 3rd position each (3-1)! Times, if we select a position at random,

the probability of it being occupied by a black ball shall therefore be ((No of B balls) x (n-1)!) / ((Total

No of Balls) x (n-1)!) =No of B Balls/ Total no of balls = k/n

E.g., suppose j=1, the probability that the 1st ball drawn is black shall be k/n

Similarly, if j=2, 3, 4 the probability of the ball drawn being black shall always be k/n

So, the probability of the jth ball being black shall be k/n if the balls are drawn without replacement.

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Alternative Answer:

Lets consider j=1

The probability of the 1st ball drawn being black = k/n

For j=2,

The probability of 2nd ball drawn being black

a) The first ball drawn was black = (k/n) x ((k-1)/(n-1))

b) The first ball drawn was white = ((n-k)/n) x (k/(n-1))

The probability of the 2nd ball being a black shall therefore be

(k/n) x ((k-1)/ (n-1)) + ((n-k)/n) x (k/(n-1)) = k/n

For j=3,

The probability that the 3rd ball drawn is black

a) When the 1st two balls drawn are blacks = (k/n) x ((k-1)/(n-1)) x ((k-2)/(n-2))

b) When the 1st two balls drawn are white = ((n-k)/n) x ((n-k-1)/(n-1)) x (k/(n-2))

c) When the 1st ball drawn is white and the 2nd ball drawn is black

= ((n-k)/n) x (k/(n-1)) x ((k-1)/(n-2))

d) When the 1st ball drawn is black and the 2nd ball drawn is white

= (k/n) x ((n-k)/(n-1)) x ((k-1)/(n-2))

The probability that the 3rd ball drawn is black shall therefore be

(k/n) x ((k-1)/(n-1)) x ((k-2)/(n-2)) + ((n-k)/n) x ((n-k-1)/(n-1)) x (k/(n-2)) + ((n-k)/n) x (k/(n-

1)) x ((k-1)/(n-2)) + ((n-k)/n) x (k/(n-1)) x ((k-1)/(n-2))

= k/n

As we can observe the pattern from the above results, the probability of the jth ball drawn being

black is always k/n.

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