[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] August 12, 2010
Heating Oil Crude Oil
Month High Low Settle Change Volume Month High Low Settle Change Volume
SEP 207.17 199.75 200.15 ‐7.37 58614 SEP 77.97 75.52 75.74 ‐2.28 377380
OCT 210.25 202.90 203.26 ‐7.44 27297 OCT 78.43 75.90 76.15 ‐2.34 178881
NOV 212.25 205.88 206.24 ‐7.36 13188 NOV 79.05 76.47 76.73 ‐2.40 74459
DEC 215.72 208.70 209.11 ‐7.23 18642 DEC 79.69 77.02 77.31 ‐2.47 96599
JAN 218.45 211.54 211.80 ‐7.24 4439 JAN 79.98 77.73 77.86 ‐2.50 15198
FEB 216.80 213.26 213.62 ‐7.32 976 FEB 80.65 78.20 78.34 ‐2.53 7263
MAR 218.44 214.18 214.41 ‐7.37 1653 MAR 80.82 78.60 78.76 ‐2.54 7802
APR 217.23 214.69 214.32 ‐7.26 489 APR 80.96 79.42 79.17 ‐2.56 7668
MAY 217.37 214.39 214.40 ‐7.23 617 MAY 80.85 79.57 79.57 ‐2.55 3766
JUN 219.60 214.35 214.71 ‐7.31 1365 JUN 81.98 79.70 79.95 ‐2.55 8658
JUL 218.86 217.24 215.94 ‐7.28 60 JUL ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 80.30 ‐2.56 1918
AUG 220.47 220.36 217.41 ‐7.26 42 AUG 82.67 80.60 80.56 ‐2.55 1021
Unleaded Gasoline Natural Gas
Month High Low Settle Change Volume Month High Low Settle Change Volume
SEP 199.60 194.90 195.48 ‐4.28 48342 SEP 4.363 4.264 4.296 ‐0.030 118415
OCT 194.96 189.22 189.75 ‐5.73 42143 OCT 4.374 4.283 4.315 ‐0.016 76334
NOV 195.41 189.64 190.10 ‐5.86 15346 NOV 4.604 4.535 4.573 0.027 54511
DEC 196.86 190.83 191.36 ‐6.02 12963 DEC 4.851 4.767 4.848 0.071 24243
JAN 197.04 193.23 193.64 ‐6.10 2621 JAN 4.977 4.905 4.973 0.067 17665
FEB 198.50 195.47 195.88 ‐6.25 858 FEB 4.957 4.902 4.957 0.068 2387
MAR 201.25 197.78 198.13 ‐6.35 849 MAR 4.876 4.815 4.875 0.064 4671
APR ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 210.48 ‐6.45 220 APR 4.738 4.686 4.743 0.067 5071
MAY ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 211.38 ‐6.51 139 MAY 4.760 4.711 4.764 0.066 1113
JUN 217.00 211.98 212.21 ‐6.53 325 JUN 4.814 4.763 4.815 0.062 806
JUL ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 212.51 ‐6.53 0 JUL 4.869 4.814 4.873 0.058 805
AUG ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 212.26 ‐6.53 0 AUG 4.919 4.863 4.922 0.055 881
Early Evening Market Review for Thursday
Oil markets were crushed again on Thursday, with crude oil prices falling
another $2.28, to bring the two‐day loss to more than $4.50 a barrel. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the bellwether equities average,
dropped 58.88 points to 10,319.95. The weakness in equities was once
again a major contributing factor to the weakness in oil prices. The euro
was also lower on Thursday, but hardly to the extent it was on Wednesday
(see chart next page). We now have losses of $5.74/barrel in crude since
Monday night’s higher close, which is the largest three‐day decline since
May, Dow Jones News noted in its daily roundup. Thursday’s losses were
also propelled by another increase in unemployment.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] August 12, 2010
It was hardly a major data‐point, but the weekly unemplyment figures released by the Labor Department
showed a rise of 2,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance, raising the figure to 484,000 for the week
ended August 7th. The four‐week moving average also increased, by 14,250, to 473,500.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal offered a dire
forecast, suggesting that the US economy is likely to add just
136,000 jobs a month over the next 12 months, a figure that was
down from their forecast figure of 157,000 new jobs each month,
in the same survey a month ago. At the new predicted rate,
unemployment would remain above 9% through next June.
This increase in the jobless number underlined the uphill
struggle facing the world economy, and it triggered a continuing
migration into safe havens like the US dollar and gold. Other forms
of “risk” were avoided or liquidated, with oil futures being
unloaded heavily by investors. The euro was lower again (see chart
to left) as investors bought dollars, albeit less aggressively than on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, gasoline prices had been the biggest losers, dropping 8.77 cents against 5.02 cents a gallon
in heating oil. On Thursday, heating oil prices dropped 7.37 cents a gallon while gasoline prices dropped 4.28
cents a gallon. On Wednesday, traders were reacting to the drop in gasoline demand during the height of
driving season. Traders revisited the picture on Thursday, and they were selling heating oil based on growing
inventories and poor demand there, as well, in this week’s report.
This week’s DOE report showed gasoline demand
at 9.236 million bpd, which is a low number, especially EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
for August. Distillate demand was just 3.400 million Cons Region East 1536 bcf up 43
bpd, which is also low. Four‐week aggregate averages Cons Region West 479 up 03
were better this week, but the fear is that these most Producing Region 970 dn 09
Total Lower 48 2985 bcf up 37
recent figures represent the creeping edge of a new
trend towards lower demand. As it stands this
moment, anyway, refineries are cutting utilization, which should bring output back in line, but it may be too
late, if demand is starting to fall along with economic expectations.
Oil markets are back inside trading ranges and they may need to visit their lower parameters.
Fundamentally, we honestly would have a hard time getting bullish – based strictly on supply and demand –
even at prices half of what they are right now. However, and it is a big caveat, supply and demand are not
even the second or third leading factors deciding oil prices in 2010. Equities, currencies, low interest rates and
the carry trade and economic statistics have been leading oil by the nose all year. It is only now, with all of
these looking rather grim, that oil prices have been allowed to follow their own supply and demand factors.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Crude oil prices are in the midst of their largest three‐day decline since May. Everything is coming up bearish, here.
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