RegionalSecurityForecast:Headlines17Nov2014-23Nov2014

Asia&thePacific
Thisweek'sheadlines

SolomonIslands

Maintainheightenedawarenessduring
nationalelectoralcycle

Afghanistan

Situationremainsvolatileamid
continuingwithdrawalofinternational
combattroops

Indonesia

Labourprotestslikelyincomingweeks
anticipatetraveldelays

India

Jharkhand,India-administeredKashmir:
Stateassemblyelectionstobeheldfrom
25November

Pakistan

Punjab,Sindhprovinces:Planroutes
circumventingoppositionprotestsin
Gujranwala,Larkana

China

HongKong:Demonstrationplanned
outsideBritishconsulateon21
Novembercontinuetoavoidallprotests

India

Delhi:Expectdisruption,increased
securityduringinternationaltradefair,
particularlyfrom24November

Myanmar

Yangon:Anticipate,avoidlikelystudent
protestsincomingdays

Nepal

Kathmandu:Anticipateheightened
security,associateddisruptionduring
ControlRisks&CollinsBartholomew regionalsummiton22-27November

Asia&thePacific:theweekaheadindetail

SolomonIslands:Maintainheightenedawarenessduringnationalelectoralcycle

Travelriskrating

WeadviserestrictionsontraveltopartsofSolomonIslands.
Generalelectionswilltakeplaceon19November.TheRoyalSolomonIslandsPoliceForce(RSIPF)willbetheprimarysecurityproviderforthe
vote,withsupportfromtheAustralia-andNewZealand-ledRegionalAssistanceMissiontotheSolomonIslands(RAMSI)inalogisticalandadvisory
capacity.TheRSIPFhasbeenconductingoperationsinthecapitalHoniaraandtheprovincessinceearlyNovember,carryingoutincreasedpatrols
andcrackingdownoncriminalanddisruptiveactivities,aswellasmeetingwithcommunityleaderstoensureexpectationsaroundelection
behaviourareset.

Electiondayitselfisexpectedtopassofflargelywithoutincident,withthesecurityforcesstationedatpollingboothsandballotboxesandensuring
thatanydisturbancesarecontained.Thevotecountingcouldtakearoundaweek,afterwhichtheprocessofformingagovernment,duringwhich
MPswillalsochooseaprimeminister,willtakeplaceinHoniaradependingontheoutcomeofthevote,politicalwranglingcouldtakearounda
month.Therearecurrentlynospecificthreatsofviolenceorahigherlikelihoodofdisturbancesfromanyparticulargroup,thoughelectionsinthe
SolomonIslandsareunpredictable,andprecedentsuggeststhattheriskofunrestwillbehighestinthegovernment-formationperiod.

Thefollowingkeytriggersarelikelytocauseprotests,disruptionandpotentiallyviolencewithinHoniara,andshouldbemonitoredcloselyinthe
comingweeks:

Intra-partyconflictoverwhobecomesprimeminister.
Ahungparliamentoranotherkindofpoliticaldeadlockthatpreventstheformationofagovernment.
Theunexpectedelectionofaprimeministerthroughanunconventionalcoalitionthisoccurredinthe2006elections,inwhichnopartywon
morethanfourofthetotal50parliamentaryseats,leadingtoacoalitionbeingformedbetweenindependentparties.
Accusationsofelectionfraud,especiallyvote-riggingthelikelihoodofthishasreducedwiththeintroductionofthebiometricvoter
registrationsystem,thoughthereportedwidespreadpurchasingofillegalIDcardsandthecontinuingpotentialforineligiblevoterstobe
registeredmayleadtotensions.

TraveltoSolomonIslandscancontinueasnormalatpresent,weassessthatanyelection-relatedunrestisunlikelytoposeadirectthreatto
businesstravellersorexpatriatestaff.Nonetheless,adeteriorationinthepoliticalorsecurityenvironmentcouldaffectlocalmovementand
businessoperationsinthecomingweeksmonitorourtravelsecurityalertsregularlyforanychangestoouradviceandtoremainapprisedof
developments.

Afghanistan:Situationremainsvolatileamidcontinuingwithdrawalofinternationalcombattroops

Travelriskrating
Badakhshan,Bamian,Daykundi,Ghor,Jowzjan,Panjshir,Samangan,SaripulandTakharprovinces

WeadvisecountrywiderestrictionsontraveltoAfghanistan.

Militantactivityacrossmuchofthecountryhaswitnessedaslightreductionasthefightingseasonwindsdownduetowinterconditions.However,
membersshouldnotbecomplacent:militantgroupswillattempttomaintaintheiroperationaltempoandvisibility,includinginthecapitalKabul,
aheadoftheinternationalcombattroopwithdrawalattheendofDecember.

Thesecuritysituationinthesouthandeastremainsparticularlyvolatile.Inrecentdays,foreigntroopshavecontinuedtowithdrawfromkeymilitary
bases,andInternationalSecurityAssistanceForceairoperationshavebeensuspendedacrossmuchofthesouthernandeasternareas.
Additionally,reportsindicatethatseveralAfghanLocalPolicepersonnelinLogar,GhazniandWardakprovincesmanyofwhomhavereportedly
notbeenpaidforthreemonthsaresellingtheirammunitiontotheinsurgency.

TraveltoAfghanistanrequiresflexibleitineraries,detailedpreparationanddedicatedlocalsecuritysupport:membersshouldbepreparedto
postponeorcutshorttravelatshortnoticeduetochangesinthesecuritysituation.Whilein-country,membersshouldemploy24/7professional
securitysupporttoensureaccesstothelatestlocallysourcedthreatintelligence,trip-specificassessments,operations-roomtracking,reliable
communicationsandimmediateaccesstoemergencysupport.Armouredvehiclesarerecommendedforallroadmovement.

Indonesia:Labourprotestslikelyincomingweeksanticipatetraveldelays

Travelriskrating
MalukuAcehPapua,WestPapua

WeadviserestrictionsontraveltopartsofIndonesia.

Furtherlabourdemonstrationsarelikelyinthecomingdays,amidaproposedfuelpriceriseandstalledwagenegotiations.Whilemostsuch
gatheringsareexpectedtobesmall-scaleandlocalised,labourunionsrecognisethatlarge-scaleralliescanbeeffectiveinpressingforchanges
togovernmentpolicy,andhaveahistoryofmobilisinglargecrowdsnumberinginthehighthousandstoenforcetheirdemands.Membersshould
monitorourtravelsecurityalertsonIndonesiaandliaisewithlocalcontactstodeterminethetimingsandlocationsofplannedprotests.

InthecapitalJakarta,demonstrationsregularlyfocusonthelabourministrythevicinityofJakarta'sPresidentialPalacetheHotelIndonesia(HI,or
'Welcome')roundaboutandMerdekaSquaretheHouseofRepresentativecomplexonJalanJenderalGatotSubrotoCityHallandtheGrand
MercureHotel.Labourunionsalsostageperiodicralliesinthevicinityofairports,includingJakarta'sSoekarno-HattaInternationalAirport(CGK).

PreviousattemptstoblockaccesstotheairporthaveledtoseveredisruptionalongtheJenuk-Penjaringantollroad.Whilethepolicecanbe
expectedtoswiftlyrespondtoillegalblockades,clashesbetweenpoliceofficersandprotesterscanrenderoverlandtraveldifficultorimpossibleon
affectedroutesforseveralhours.

Membershouldavoidallprotestsasaroutinesecurityprecaution.Ifinadvertentlycaughtupinademonstration,quicklybutcalmlydepartthearea
andrelocatetoasecurelocation,suchasyourlocalofficeoraccommodation.Protestersmayattempttobreachsecuritycordons,blockroads,
vandalisenearbyvehiclesandproperty,orthrowstonesandotherprojectiles.Suchbehaviourisliabletotriggeratoughpoliceresponse,which
couldincludetheuseofteargas,watercannonandbatoncharges.

India:Jharkhand,India-administeredKashmir:Stateassemblyelectionstobeheldfrom25November

Travelriskrating
 AndamanandNicobarIslands,Lakshadweep,Sikkim,HimachalPradesh,Uttarakhand,Lehdistrict(Ladakh
region,JammuandKashmirstate):
Asom(Assam),Manipur,Nagaland,Tripura,Bihar,Jharkhand,Chhattisgarh,non-coastaldistrictsofOdisha
(Orissa),andtheeasternareasofMaharashtra,partsofJammuandKashmirstate

WeadviserestrictionsontraveltopartsofIndia.

Stateassemblyelectionswillbeheldon25November-23DecemberinJharkhandstateandIndia-administeredKashmir,whichcomprisesthe
Kashmirvalley,JammuregionandLadakhregion.Weexpectasmallriseinthefrequencyofviolentincidentsinbothstatesinthecomingweeks,
asrebelsandmilitantsattempttounderminethepoliticalprocess.

Jharkhand

Traveltothestatecancontinue,thoughanytraveloutsidethestate'smajorurbancentresshouldbeforessentialpurposesonly.Journeys
deemedessentialshouldbeconductedwithcomprehensivesecuritysupportandindaylighthourseachmustbesubjecttoariskassessmentthat
isplannedindetailandconductedwithinthecompany'sjourneymanagementpolicy.

ThedistrictsofGarhwa,Giridih,Gumla,Khunti,Latehar,Palamu,SimdegaandWestSinghbhumareconsideredthemostpronetoextreme-leftist
Naxalite(Maoist)rebelactivity,thoughnopartofthestateshouldbeconsideredcompletelyimmune.Attacksinthestate'slargerurbancentresare
expectedtoremainextremelyrare.Instead,increasedNaxaliteactivityisexpectedtolargelymanifestitselfinnarrowlytargetedassassination
attemptsandabductionsoflocalpoliticians.

Naxaliteoperationswillfocusoncampaigneventsheldinsmallurbansettlements,ortakeplaceinheavilyforestedareasaslocalleaderstravel
betweenurbancentres.Inruralareas,attacksfollowawell-establishedpatternwherebyrebelserectillegalroadblocksinanefforttoambush
securityforcepersonnel,localpoliticalleaders,andthosetherebelsviewasasymbolicrepresentationofthegovernment.

MembersvisitingoroperatinginareasaffectedbyNaxaliteviolencewillbemainlyaffectedbybandhs(shutdownstrikes)organisedbythegroup,
whichsignificantlydisrupttravelandcommercialactivity.Membersshouldexpectacompleteshutdownofallcommercialactivitiesandoverland
transportinareaswherestrikesarebeingenforced.Inmostcases,Naxalitesareabletogarnerlargesupportforsuchstrikes,asnon-
sympathisersobservetheshutdownforfearofreprisalattacksbytherebels.

India-administeredKashmir

Traveltothestatecancontinue.However,traveltothestate'ssummercapitalSrinagarrequiresincreasedvigilanceduetotheincidentalrisks
posedbysocialunrestandpossiblemilitantattacksongovernmentandsecurityforcepersonnelandinstallations.Alltraveloutsidethemajor
urbanareaintheKashmirvalleyandtheKishtwar,PoonchandRambandistrictsofJammuregionmustbeconductedwithstringentsecurity
precautionsduetocontinuingmilitantactivity.

Militantsmainlycarryoutraidsonsecurityforcecampsandattacksonconvoys,aswellaselection-relatedmeetings,officialsandfacilities.These
generallytaketheformoflow-levelshootingsandtheuseofgrenadesandimprovisedexplosivedevices(IEDs)againstsecuritypostsin
marketplacesorsecurityforceconvoys/vehiclesonmajorthoroughfares.

Thefrequencyofdisruptivebandhsandassociatedviolentdemonstrationswillalsoincrease. Duringdemonstrations,protestersoftenthrow
projectilessuchasstones,ballbearingsandMolotovcocktailsatthesecurityforces.WithinSrinagar,violentdemonstrationsareusually
concentratedintheOldCityareaandhavealimitedimpactonpopulartouristareassuchasDalLake.

Pakistan:Punjab,Sindhprovinces:PlanroutescircumventingoppositionprotestsinGujranwala,Larkana

Travelriskrating
KhyberPakhtunkhwa(formerlyknownasNorthWestFrontierProvinceNWFP)north-eastBalochistan
FederallyAdministeredTribalAreas(FATA)

WeadvisecountrywiderestrictionsontraveltoPakistan.

ThePakistanTehreek-e-Insaf(PTI)partyhasscheduledprotestsinthecomingdaysinPunjabandSindhprovincesthathavethepotentialto
causeconsiderablelocaliseddisruption.

Thefollowingdemonstrationshavebeenplanned:

21November:AtthestadiuminLarkana(Sindh).
23November:InGujranwala(Punjab).ThedistrictadministrationhasdeniedpermissionforthePTItogatheratJinnahStadiumthenew
venuehasyettobeconfirmed.
30November:AtD-chowkinthecapitalIslamabad.

ThereisapotentialforscufflesbetweenPTIsupportersandmembersoftherulingPakistanMulsimLeague-NawazpartyinGujranwala.Both
partiesgatheredinGujranwalaon13November,causingdisruptionalongtheGrandTrunkRoad.SeveralPTIworkerswerealsodetainedfor
displayingweapons.MotoriststravellingbetweenIslamabadandLahore(Punjab)shouldproceedviatheM2Motorwaythisrouteispreferableat
alltimes,thoughparticularlyon23November,asitcircumventsGujranwala.

TheralliesarelinkedtoanongoingprotestcampaignbythePTItodemandtheresignationofPrimeMinisterNawazSharif.Ananti-terrorismcourt
lastweekissuedarrestwarrantsforPTIleaderImranKhanandothersforattackingtheParliamentHouseandPakistanTelevision(PTV)buildings
inIslamabadduringtheheightoftheprotestmovementinlateAugust.Noarrestshaveyetbeenmade,thoughthewarrantislikelytoboost
attendanceattherallies,whichKhanplanstoattend.

China:HongKong:DemonstrationplannedoutsideBritishconsulateon21Novembercontinuetoavoidallprotests

Travelriskrating
Non-centraldistrictsofcitiesinGuangdongprovinceremoteborderareasXinjiangUighurAutonomous
Region(XUAR)

WeadvisetherearenosignificantrestrictionsontraveltoChina,butsecuritymeasuresarenecessary.
Thereisincreasedpotentialforhighlylocalisedandshort-livedclashes,particularlyattheMongKokprotestsite,betweenthepoliceandpro-
democracyactiviststhisweekasreportssuggestthatthepolicewillsoonbeginclearingdemonstratorsfromthesite.Operationstodisperse
activistsatotherprotestsitesareexpectedtofollow.Inaddition,frequent-albeitminor-clashesbetweensupportersofpro-democracyprotesters
andmembersofanti-Occupygroupsarelikelytocontinue.

Pro-democracyactivistsarecurrentlyencampedonHarcourtRoad,witharound2,000tentsatthesite.SimilarencampmentsareinplaceonYee
WoStreetinCausewayBaydistrictandonNathanRoadinMongKokdistrict.Inaddition,activistsat16.00(localtime)on21November
plantogatheronSupremeCourtRoad,outsidetheBritishconsulate,todenouncetheBritishgovernment'sperceivedfailuretosupportthe
pro-democracymovementinHongKong.

Whiletheprotestcampaigncontinues,participationatdemonstrationswillfluctuatedaily.Numbersaretypicallylowduringbusinesshours,but
increasesignificantlyintheeveningasparticipantsleavetheirschoolsandworkplaces.

Roadclosuresareinplaceonsomemajorroutesaroundprotestsites,makingtrafficcongestionworsethannormal.TheseincludeConnaught
Road,HarcourtRoad,TimMeiandTimWaavenues,LegislativeCouncilRoad,LungWuiRoad,PerformingArtsAvenueandRodneyStreet(all
Admiralty),theeast-boundlaneofYeeWoStreet(CausewayBay),andNathanRoadandArgylestreets(bothMongKok).

MTRtrainsarerunningasnormal,butthereiscontinueddisruptiontobusandtramservicesduetodiversionsnearprotestsites.Travelbetween
HongKongInternationalAirport(HKG)andthecentralbusinessdistrict(CBD),includingontheairportexpresstrain,isviable.However,theH1and
H2airportshuttlebusesarecurrentlyprovidinglimitedservice.

India:Delhi:Expectdisruption,increasedsecurityduringinternationaltradefair,particularlyfrom24November

Travelriskrating
AndamanandNicobarIslands,Lakshadweep,Sikkim,HimachalPradesh,Uttarakhand,Lehdistrict(Ladakh
region,JammuandKashmirstate):
Asom(Assam),Manipur,Nagaland,Tripura,Bihar,Jharkhand,Chhattisgarh,non-coastaldistrictsofOdisha
(Orissa),andtheeasternareasofMaharashtra,partsofJammuandKashmirstate

WeadviserestrictionsontraveltopartsofIndia.

TheannualIndiaInternationalTradeFair(IITF)willcontinueuntil27NovemberatthePragatiMaidanfairgroundsinthecapitalDelhi.Around
6,000exhibitorsfrom26countriesareparticipatingintheevent,whichisexpectedtodrawmorethan1.5mvisitors.Travellersshouldexpecttravel
restrictionsonvariousroutesinthearea,includingBhagwanDasRoad,BhaironMarg,MathuraRoad,PuranaQilaRoadandSherShahRoad.

Whilethefairwillattractlargecrowdsonalldays,attendancecanbeexpectedtoincreaseduringthefinaldaysoftheevent.Inparticular,vehicular
congestionislikelytobethemostsevereduringthelastfourdaysoftheevent(24-27November),particularlyintheevening.Overcrowding
shouldbeanticipatedonmetroservices,particularlyontheBlueLinethatservesPragatiMaidanstationandtheinterchangestationsofRajiv
Chowk,KashmereGate,CentralSecretariatandKirtiNagar.Themetronetworkinanycasecanbeexpectedtobeheavilycrowdedduringevening
rushhoursonweekdays.

Largecrowdsentailtheriskofpettycrime,particularlypick-pocketing,andtravellersshouldbealerttotheriskoftheftofunattendeditemsat
metrostationsandinsidetheIITFvenue.Low-levelsexualharassmentalsoremainsacredibleconcernforfemaletravellers.

Membersshouldalsoexpect,butnotbeundulyalarmedby,anoticeablyincreasedsecuritypresencearoundPragatiMaidanandmetrostations
duringtheeventtravellersshouldcomplyfullywithallinstructionsissuedbytheauthorities.Travellersshouldalsobeawarethatthegovernment
andintelligenceagenciesfrequentlyissueterrorismalertsaheadofsuchmajorevents.

Myanmar:Yangon:Anticipate,avoidlikelystudentprotestsincomingdays

Travelriskrating
Chinese,ThaiandBangladeshiborderareasInsurgency-affectedareasRakhinestate

WeadviserestrictionsontraveltopartsofMyanmar.

MembersinthecommercialcapitalYangon(Rangoon,Yangonregion)shouldavoidthevicinityofanyfurtherprotestsheldbystudentunionsin
thecomingdays.Thedemonstrationsarebeingheldtodenouncelegislationthatgivesthegovernmentfullcontrolovereducationinstitutionsand
universities.

Whilefurtherprotestsarelikelytopassoffpeacefully,thesecurityforcesareliabletoforciblydisperseanygatheringthatbecomesunruly.
Membersareremindedthatalldemonstrationsshouldbeavoidedasasecurityprecaution.Travellersshouldmonitorourtravelsecurityalertson
Myanmar,liaisewithlocalcontactstodeterminethetimingsandlocationofanyfurthergatherings,andplanroutesavoidingsucheventsto
minimiseinconvenience.

Around500studentson14NovemberdemonstratedoutsideYangon'sCityHallandsubsequentlymarchedtotheadjacentMahaBandoolaPark,
beforestagingasit-inatSulePagoda.SimilargatheringswereheldatYangonUniversityon13-14November.

Nepal:Kathmandu:Anticipateheightenedsecurity,associateddisruptionduringregionalsummiton22-27November

Travelriskrating
South

WeadvisetherearenosignificantrestrictionsontraveltoNepal,butsecuritymeasuresarenecessary.

HeightenedsecurityandassociateddisruptionshouldbeexpectedaheadofandduringtheSouthAsianAssociationforRegionalCooperation
(SAARC)summit,whichwillbeheldon 22-27NovemberinthecapitalKathmandu.ThevenueistheRastriyaSabhaGriha(CityHall)on
PradarshaniMarg.

Theauthoritieshavedeployedadditionalsecurityforcepersonnelfortheevent,whichwillbeattendedbyheadsofstatefromalleightSAARC
membercountries(Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Maldives,Nepal,PakistanandSriLanka),aswellasseniorgovernmentofficialsand
diplomats.

TheinfluxofdelegateswillincreasepressureonlocalservicesinKathmandu,andashortageofaccommodationandtaxiscanbeexpectedduring
theevent.Memberstravellingtothecityduringthisperiodshouldreconfirmhotelandtransportbookings.

Regionalcalendarfornext14days

CurrentEvents
26Nov2014
India:Anniversaryof2008terroristattacksinMumbai
Expectheightenedsecurity,roadclosuresandrelateddisruptioninMumbaiduringthecommemorationofthe26-29November2008attacks.
NarimanPoint,BandraandColabawillbetheareasmostlikelytobeaffected.

Iconlegend

Crime Health Traveldisruption Travelpracticalities Keydates

Communal,
Protests,ralliesand International
Politicalviolence sectarianand Naturaldisasters
associatedviolence relations
religiousviolence

Forthefulllistoftravelriskdefinitions,visitthewebsiteandclickwithintheRiskRatingssection.

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