Assignment 2 - KL2103 Statistics and Probability

Lecturer: Dr. Paramashanti

Date of submission: September 18, 2017

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1. A concentrated load on a cantilever beam may be placed in either location A or B, with

probabilities P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.7. If the load is placed at A, the probability of bending
failure of the beam is 0.01, and the probability of shear failure is 0.001. If the load is placed at
B, the probability of bending failure of the beam is 0.02, and the probability of shear failure
remains the same. Of the beam has shear failure, then the probability of bending failure is 0.9.
What is te overall probability of failure of the beam?

2. A high-rise building is designed against wind load and earthquakes. The designer's calculation
shows that during its service life (the next 50 years), the probability that the building will be
damaged only by earthquakes is 0.1, only by windstorms is 0.05, and by both earthquakes and
windstorms is 0.2. Past records show that in a given period of 50 years, the probabilities of
occurrence of earthquakes and windstorms are 0.2 and 0.5, respectively. Earthquakes and
windstorms are statistically independent.
a. Find the probability that the building will be damaged during its service life (ocurrences
of earthquuakes and windstorms are statistically independent).
b. If at the end of 50 years damage is found in the building, what is the probablity that
earthquakes have occured?

3. Delay (D) in a construction project can be caused by material shortage (M), labor shortage (L),
and bad weather (W); the corresponding probabilities are 40%, 40%, and 20%, respectively.
Assume M, L, and W are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, and the likelihood of
their occurrence is 2:2:1, respectively.
a. What is the probability of delay of the construction project?
b. If the project was delayed, what is the probability that the delay was caused by bad
weather?

4. For mathematical modeling, suppose the major causes of an accident (A) on a segment of
highway can be grouped into speeding (S), tiredness (T), carelessness (C), weather conditions
(W), and drunkenness (D). The likelihoods of these causes are estimated to be 4:3:1:1:1,
respectively. The probabilities of an accident due to S, T, C, W, and D are 0.01, 0.05, 0.01, 0.005,
and 0.8, respectively.
a. Calculate the probability of an accident in the segment of the highway?
b. If there was an accident, what is the probability that it was caused by drunkenness of
the driver?