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Financial Management, 12e (Titman/Keown/Martin)

Chapter 7 An Introduction to Risk and Return-History of Financial Market Returns

7.1 Realized and Expected Rates of Return and Risk

1) You purchased the stock of Sargent Motors at a price of $75.75 one year ago today. If you sell the stock
today for $89.00, what is your rate of return?
A) 35.00%
B) 12.50%
C) 17.50%
D) 25.00%
Answer: C
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Revised
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

2) You have invested in a project that has the following payoff schedule:

Probability of
Payoff Occurrence
$40 .15
$50 .20
$60 .30
$70 .30
$80 .05

What is the expected value of the investment's payoff? (Round to the nearest $1.)
A) $60
B) $65
C) $58
D) $70
Answer: C
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

1
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
3) If there is a 20% chance we will get a 16% return, a 30% chance of getting a 14% return, a 40% chance of
getting a 12% return, and a 10% chance of getting an 8% return, what is the expected rate of return?
A) 12%
B) 13%
C) 14%
D) 15%
Answer: B
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

4) You are considering investing in a project with the following possible outcomes:

Probability of Investment
States Occurrence Returns
State 1: Economic boom 15% 16%
State 2: Economic growth 45% 12%
State 3: Economic decline 25% 5%
State 4: Depression 15% -5%

Calculate the expected rate of return for this investment.


A) 9.8%
B) 7.0%
C) 8.3%
D) 6.3%
Answer: C
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

2
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
5) Spartan Sofas, Inc. is selling for $50.00 per share today. In one year, Spartan will be selling for $48.00
per share, and the dividend for the year will be $3.00. What is the cash return on Spartan stock?
A) $51.00
B) $1.00
C) $2.00
D) $3.00
Answer: B
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Revised
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

6) What is the standard deviation of an investment that has the following expected scenario? 18%
probability of a recession, 2.0% return; 65% probability of a moderate economy, 9.5% return; 17%
probability of a strong economy, 14.2% return.
A) 3.68%
B) 1.23%
C) 8.47%
D) 6.66%
Answer: A
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

7) You are considering investing in a firm that has the following possible outcomes:

Economic boom: probability of 25%; return of 25%


Economic growth: probability of 60%; return of 15%
Economic decline: probability of 15%; return of -5%

What is the expected rate of return on the investment?


A) 15.0%
B) 11.7%
C) 14.5%
D) 25.0%
Answer: C
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

3
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
8) Which of the following best measures an asset's risk?
A) Expected return
B) The standard deviation
C) The probability distribution
D) The cash return
Answer: B
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Revised
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

9) The cash return on an investment is calculated as purchase price-selling price.


Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

10) Because returns are more certain for the least risky investments, the required return on these
investments should be higher than the required returns on more risky investments.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

11) Even though an investor expects a positive rate of return, it is possible that the actual return will be
negative.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

12) The expected rate of return is the weighted average of the possible returns for an investment.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

4
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
13) The expected rate of return is the sum of each possible return times it likelihood of occurrence.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

14) The higher the standard deviation, the less risk the investment has.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

15) Using the following information for McDonovan, Inc.'s stock, calculate their expected return and
standard deviation.

State Probability Return


Boom 20% 40%
Normal 60% 15%
Recession 20% (20%)

Answer:
Ki = = (.20)(40%) + (.60)(15%) + (.20)(-20%)
= 8% + 9% - 4% = 13%
i = ( ).
i = ((40% - 13%)2(.2) + (15% - 13%)2 (.6) + (-20% - 13%)2 (.2)). = 19.13%
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Revised
Objective: 7.1 Calculate realized and expected rates of return and risk.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

5
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
7.2 A Brief History of Financial Market Returns

1) Which of the following sequences is arranged in the correct order, from highest long-term returns to
lowest?
A) Small stocks, government bonds, large stocks
B) Large stocks, treasury bills, small stocks
C) Small stocks, large stocks, treasury bills
D) Government bonds, large stocks, treasury bills
Answer: C
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

2) Investments that have earned the highest rates of return over time also have
A) the lowest risk.
B) the highest standard deviation of returns.
C) the largest market capitalization.
D) the least sensitivity to inflation.
Answer: B
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

3) The difference between returns on stocks and government bonds is known as


A) the equity risk premium.
B) the risk and return tradeoff.
C) the maturity premium.
D) the risk/reward paradox.
Answer: A
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

6
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
4) An emerging market is
A) a market for small, but rapidly growing companies.
B) market for companies coming out from bankruptcy proceedings.
C) market for promising, but untested technologies.
D) a market located in an economy with low to middle per capita income.
Answer: D
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

5) The risk-return tradeoff tells us that expected returns should be higher on investments that have higher
risk.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

6) Riskier investments have traditionally had lower returns than less risky investments have had.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

7) Less risky investments have lower standard deviations than do more risky investments.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

8) Investments in emerging markets have higher volatility than do U.S. Stocks.


Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

7
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
9) Risky investments have the potential for higher returns, but also larger losses.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

10) Historically, in the United States stocks have had higher returns and greater volatility than have
government bonds.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

11) Treasury Bills have less default risk than do Government Bonds.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

12) Investors are always rewarded for taking higher risk with higher realized returns.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

13) During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, returns on real estate investment trusts (REITS) and stocks
moved in opposite directions.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.2 Describe the historical pattern of financial market returns.
Keywords: risk, return
Principles: Principle 2: There Is a Risk-Return Tradeoff

8
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
7.3 Geometric vs. Arithmetic Average Rates of Return

1) Marcus Berger invested $9842.33 in Hawkeyehats, Inc. four years ago. He sold the stock today for
$11,396.22. What is his geometric average return?
A) 2.98%
B) 3.73%
C) 3.95%
D) There is insufficient information to derive an answer.
Answer: B
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: holding period return
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

2) Michael Lynch invested $10,000 in the Rearguard Fund four years ago. All earnings were reinvested in
the fund. If his compound annual rate of return was 7%, what is his investment worth today?
A) $1,310.80
B) $10,700
C) $12,800
D) $762.89
Answer: A
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: arithmetic average return
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

Use the following to answer the following question(s).

Roddy Richards invested $12014.88 in Wolverine Meat Distributors (W.M.D.) five years ago. The
investment had yearly arithmetic returns of -9.7%, -8.1%, 15%, 7.2%, and 15.4%.

3) What is the arithmetic average return of Roddy Richard's investment?


A) 2.42%
B) 3.96%
C) 5.18%
D) 15.1%
Answer: B
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: arithmetic average return
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

9
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
4) What is the geometric average return of Roddy's Richard's investment?
A) 3.38%
B) 4.63%
C) 6.96%
D) 8.78%
Answer: A
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

5) How much money did Roddy Richards receive when he sold his shares of W.M.D.?
A) $12,014.88
B) $12,398.42
C) $13,663.47
D) $14,184.73
Answer: D
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

Use the following information to answer the following question(s).

Susan Bright will get returns of 18%, -20.3%, -14%, 17.6%, and 8.3% in the next five years on her
investment in CoffeeTown, Inc. stock, which she purchases for $73,419.66 today.

6) What is the arithmetic average return on her stock if she sells it five years from today?
A) 1.92%
B) 3.98%
C) 6.47%
D) 7.11%
Answer: A
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: arithmetic average return
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

10
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
7) What is the geometric average return on her stock if she sells it five years from today?
A) -2.33%
B) .59%
C) 3.67%
D) 4.88%
Answer: B
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: geometric average return
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

8) How much will Susan's stock be worth if she sells it five years from today?
A) $71,423.85
B) $73,419.66
C) $75,628.75
D) $80,333.40
Answer: C
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: holding period return
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

9) Arithmetic average rate of return takes compounding into effect.


Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

10) An investor who wishes to hold a stock for five years will be most interested in geometric average
rather than in the arithmetic average return.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

11
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
11) If an investor holds earns 10% on her investment in the first year and loses 10% the next year, she will
have neither a gain nor a loss.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

12) If an investor holds a stock for three years, the value at the end of three years will always be the initial
cost of the stock times (1 + arithmetic average return) to the third power.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

13) Why do the arithmetic average return and the geometric return differ?
Answer: The arithmetic average return does not take what the value of the investment was at the start of
each period. Hence, even though a company may have the same arithmetic return for two consecutive
years, the dollar amount of those returns will be different in later years than in the first year. For instance,
if the investor started with $1,000, and earned 20% the first year, lost 20% the second year, and earned
15% the third year, the average arithmetic return would be 5%, and the 20% gain the first year would be
$200, but the 20% loss the second year would be $240. The investment would be worth $1104 after three
years, giving an average geometric return of 3.35%, different from the average arithmetic return.
Diff: 2
AACSB: 3. Analytic thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.3 Compute geometric (or compound) and arithmetic average rates of return.
Keywords: compound interest
Principles: Principle 1: Money Has a Time Value

12
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
7.4 What Determines Stock Prices?

1) Each of the following would tend to weaken the Efficient Market Hypothesis EXCEPT
A) There is publicly available information that Boeing Aircraft has procured a contract to build 25 planes
for the U.S. Government and the price of Boeing quickly goes up.
B) ACG, Inc. performed well for the past six months, but they just lost a major distribution contract, but
the price of ACG stock continues to go up.
C) Louisville Slugger, Inc., gets a contract to supply bats for Little League play, a contract it never had
before, and stock price remains stable.
D) Muguet Company consistently underperforms the market in October, but outperforms the market in
May.
Answer: A
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Revised
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

2) Jayden spends a lot of time studying charts of stocks past performance, but his investment return are
only average. This outcome supports
A) the weak-form efficient market hypothesis.
B) the semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis.
C) the strong form efficient market hypothesis.
D) all of the above.
Answer: D
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

3) Which of the following is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis?


A) so-called value stocks outperform growth stocks.
B) stocks that have performed well over the past year continue to perform well for several more months.
C) a company announces higher than expected sales and earnings. The stock price immediately increases
by 10%.
D) a company announces higher than expected sales and earnings. The stock price remains unchanged.
Answer: C
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

13
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
4) Madison was hired to design and decorate the offices of a large pharmaceutical company. She
accidentally read a report indicating that a new drug had just been approved by the Food and Drug
administration. She immediately bought the company's stock which doubled in price over the following
week. This outcome is inconsistent with
A) the weak-form efficient market hypothesis.
B) the semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis.
C) the strong form efficient market hypothesis. Her action was probably illegal.
D) all of the above.
Answer: C
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

5) Stock prices go up when there is positive information about a company, and go down when there is
negative information about the company.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

6) Strategies that exploit market inefficiencies tend to lose their effectiveness when they become widely
known.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: New question
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

7) If a market is weak form efficient, an investor can make higher than expected profits by studying the
past price patterns of a stock.
Answer: FALSE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

14
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
8) If an individual with inside information can make higher than expected profits, the market is no more
than semi-strong form efficient.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

9) Under the efficient market hypothesis, would securities be properly priced.


Answer: If markets were perfectly efficient, then investors would price a stock based on the company's
expected future cash flows, so at any time the security would be properly priced. If good news becomes
available, that would tend to increase the expected cash flows to a company, the stock price will go up,
meaning that the new price is then the proper price for the stock.
Diff: 2
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

10) Are markets moving toward being more efficient or toward being less efficient?
Answer: Empirical evidence shows that since about the year 2000 pricing anomalies have diminished
considerably. Hedge funds have been trying to exploit pricing inefficiencies, and by doing so, eliminate
the inefficiencies. Hence, the market appears to be becoming more efficient over time.
Diff: 2
AACSB: 6. Reflective thinking
Question Status: Previous edition
Objective: 7.4 Explain the efficient market hypothesis and why it is important to stock prices.
Keywords: efficient markets
Principles: Principle 4: Market Prices Reflect Information

15
Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

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