SOLA, 2012, Vol. 8, 069072, doi:10.2151/sola.
2012-018 69
Interannual Rainfall Variability over Northwestern Jawa and its Relation
to the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nio-Southern Oscillation Events
Hamada Jun-Ichi1, Shuichi Mori1, Hisayuki Kubota1, Manabu D. Yamanaka1,
Urip Haryoko2, Sopia Lestari3, Reni Sulistyowati3 and Fadli Syamsudin3
1
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan
2
Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta, Indonesia
3
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta, Indonesia
Abstract
Interannual rainfall variability over northwestern Jawa,
Indonesia and its relation to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and
El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events were investigated
using daily rainfall data for 19732008. IOD events clearly
influence interannual rainfall variation in the dry season (May
October) in northwestern Jawa. Drought conditions during the
dry season occur in conjunction with simultaneous development
of positive IOD and El Nio events, whereas wet conditions tend
to appear in negative IOD (with or without La Nia) rather than
single La Nia events. During positive (negative) IOD years,
cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature (SST) surrounds the
maritime continent and large-scale divergence (convergence) and
lower (higher) atmospheric water vapor content are observed.
These conditions tend to suppress (induce) rainfall in northwestern
Jawa. On the other hand, interannual rainfall variation in the rainy
season (NovemberApril) is not closely related to ENSO/IOD, but
rainfall tends to be abundant in neutral (non-ENSO/IOD) years.
This may be influenced by Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon
strength and/or northerly (cold) surges. Furthermore, decreasing
trends are detected for rainfall amounts and number of rainy days
in the rainy season.
1. Introduction
El Nio often creates drought conditions over the Indonesian
maritime continent (e.g., Ropelewski and Halpert 1987), causing
large forest and peat fires, air pollution and haze as observed in
the 1994 and 1997/98 El Nio events. Hamada et al. (2002) noted
that a late (early) onset of the rainy season over this region tends
to occur during El Nio (La Nia) years, decreasing (increasing)
the rainfall amount in Indonesia. Such negative correlation with
El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is especially high in the
eastern part of the maritime continent during the northern summer
and fall (dry and transition seasons) (e.g., Aldrian and Susanto
2003; Hendon 2003; Chang et al. 2004; Kubota et al. 2011). In
the northern winter (rainy season), however, their correlation
gets weaker despite persistent El Nio conditions (Haylock and
McBride 2001). This weak correlation suggests a strong seasonal
linkage between the maritime continent rainfall and ENSO.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also thought to have a great
impact on the maritime continent rainfall (e.g., Saji et al. 1999;
Saji and Yamagata 2003). Ashok et al. (2003) indicated that IOD-
induced cold SST anomalies off Jawa and Sumatera cause anom-
alous subsidence over the maritime continent during the northern
summer to fall, decreasing rainfall over Indonesia. However, it
still remains unclear to what degree the IOD influence explains
the rainfall variation over Indonesia, because several recent IOD
and El Nio occurred simultaneously (Schott et al. 2009 and
references therein). Sahu et al. (2011) suggest that the extreme
events of high stream-flows of Citarum river in northwestern Jawa
Corresponding author: Hamada Jun-Ichi, Research Institute for Global
Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,
2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 237-0061, Japan. E-mail:
hamada@jamstec.go.jp. 2012, the Meteorological Society of Japan.
tend to occur under La Nia conditions, whereas low stream-flow
events during the positive phase of IOD. Their study focuses on
stream-flow events, rather than local rainfall, but gives a clue for
a peculiar response of Indonesian rainfall to IOD and ENSO. This
motivates us to investigate both impacts of ENSO and IOD on the
interannual rainfall variability over this region.
While recent satellite observations have revealed the interan-
nual variability of large-scale rainfall patterns, their limited spa-
tio-temporal resolution does not observe regional topographical
effects and localized relationships between Indonesian rainfall and
ENSO/IOD. Chang et al. (2004) suggested a strong regionality
of correlation between the maritime continent and ENSO. The
correlation is low especially in the vicinity of Sumatera and Malay
Peninsula (including western Jawa and Kalimantan) during the
northern winter rainy season due to anomalous Walker circulation
pattern and barrier effects of the steep mountains in Sumatera.
The wetter mountain versus drier plains dipole pattern of rainfall
anomalies over Jawa during the peak rainy season in El Nio
years was also described by Qian et al. (2010). They suggested
that the interaction between El Nio-induced monsoonal wind
anomalies and the topography-induced local diurnal cycle of wind
and rainfall was dominated for the dipole pattern. These studies
call for the need of studying local characteristics of the interannual
rainfall variability over Indonesia including a densely populated
metropolitan area of Jakarta.
In this study, we use Indonesian daily rainfall dataset based
on rain gauge measurements (Hamada et al. 2002; Kubota et al.
2011). This rainfall dataset with high spatio-temporal resolution
allows us to investigate the impacts of both ENSO/IOD to the
interannual rainfall variability in the plain and mountainous
regions of northwestern Jawa, which has never been possible
before.
2. Data and definitions
In this study, daily rainfall data at nine stations in northwestern
Jawa, observed by the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and
Geophysics (BMKG) during May 1973April 2008 are used (Fig.
1 and Table 1). Northwestern Jawa averages are calculated from
1976 onwards and the data were obtained at least three stations
but since 1985, were obtained from all nine stations. Thus, anoma-
lies are calculated on the basis of the average data for 19852008.
If there is any missing daily data for a month, the monthly rainfall
data is treated as missing. The analysis year starts from May 1
and ends on following April 30 in order to continuously record
the southern hemisphere rainy season. The homogeneity of the
rainfall data is verified with four statistical tests recommended by
Wijngaard et al. (2003): the standard normal homogeneity test,
the Buishand range test, the Pettit test, and the Von Neumann ratio
test. The testing parameters are (1) the amount of annual rainfall
and (2) the wet day count (threshold 2.0 mm day1). The tests
show that precipitation data at all nine stations have sufficient
homogeneity.
Monthly SST data from the Hadley Center Global sea-Ice
coverage and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) dataset at 1
1 spatial resolution for 19732008 are used (Rayner et al. 2003).
Following the definition of Trenberth (1997), the study period
is classified into 11 El Nio, 12 La Nia, and 12 neutral years,
70 Hamada et al., ENSO/IOD Effects on Jawa Rainfall Variability

Fig. 1. Rainfall observation sites in northwestern Jawa. Station names are

indicated as Bogor (BO), Cengkareng (CE), Citeko (CI), Curug (CU),
Jakarta (JA), Halim (HA), Pondok Betung (PB), Serang (SE), and Tanjung
Priok (TP). Contours show altitudes with 400 m intervals.

Table 1. List of rainfall observation stations. Fig. 2. Average seasonal rainfall variations at Cengkareng, Jakarta, Pondok
Betung, and Halim in plain region, and Bogor and Citeko in mountainous
WMO Station Name region. Bars show average seasonal rainfall variation. Average seasonal
Lat. Lon. Alt. Data Period
No. variation for positive IOD (7 years), negative IOD (6 years), El Nio
96733 Pondok Betung 6.25S 106.61E Sep. 1975Apr. 2008 (11 years), La Nia (12 years), and neutral (9 years) years (described in
96737 Serang 6.12S 106.13E 40 m Jun. 1978Apr. 2008 Table 2) are indicated with red, blue, yellow, green, and black lines, re-
96739 Curug 6.23S 106.65E 46 m Jan. 1980Apr. 2008 spectively. Closed circles represent the months with significantly different
monthly rainfall amount for positive and negative IOD years at 95% confi-
96741 Tanjung Priok 6.10S 106.87E 2m May 1973Apr. 2008 dence level.
96745 Jakarta 6.17S 106.82E 7m Jan. 1974Apr. 2008
96747 Halim 6.27S 106.88E 26 m Jan. 1980Apr. 2008
96749 Cengkareng 6.11S 106.65E May 1985Apr. 2008
96751 Citeko 6.70S 106.93E May 1985Apr. 2008 The data set of the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25)
96753 Bogor 6.50S 106.75E 250 m Jan. 1985Apr. 2008 (Onogi et al. 2007) on a 1.25 grid provided for May 1979April
2008 by the Japan Meteorological Agency and Central Research
Institute of Electronic Power Industry is used.
Table 2. Classification of years when El Nio or La Nia and/or positive or
negative IOD events occurred. Also shown are years of neutral conditions 3. Results
(non-El Nio/La Nia and/or non-Positive/Negative IOD).
Regarding the average seasonal rainfall variations, a clear
Positive Non-Pos./Neg. Negative annual cycle with a DecemberJanuaryFebruary (DJF) maxi-
IOD IOD IOD mum is dominant in northwestern Jawa (Fig. 2). Differences in
El Nio 1976, 1982, 1987, 1977, 1986, 2002, rainfall amounts for IOD and ENSO phases are significant in the
1991, 1994, 1997, 2004 dry season (MayOctober). Rainfall tends to decrease during
2006 positive IOD years in the dry season, whereas it tends to increase
Non-EN/LN 1978, 1979, 1980, 1992, 1996, during negative IOD years, especially in AugustOctober (ASO).
1981, 1989, 1990, 2005 The rainfall difference between El Nio and La Nia years is also
1993, 2001, 2003 clear, but shows local variations among the stations and a signifi-
La Nia 1973, 1975, 1983, 1974, 1984, cant coherent signal only appeared in October (not shown). On the
1985, 1988, 1995, 1998 other hand, the difference in rainfall amount is not significant in
1999, 2000, 2007
both IOD and ENSO years in the rainy season (NovemberApril).
Rainfall tends to be abundant during neutral (non-ENSO/IOD)
years, especially in the peak and early rainy season (December
respectively, for ENSO phases (Table 2). The intensity of IOD is January). While the characteristics of the dry season rainfall are
represented by an anomalous SST gradient between the western similar among stations, there are local differences between plain
equatorial Indian Ocean (50E70E and 10S10N) and the and mountain regions in the rainy season of El Nio years. Rainy
south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (90E110E and 10S season tends to be delayed in the El Nio years at stations in the
Eq.) (Saji et al. 1999), and referred as Dipole Mode Index, DMI plain region as described by Hamada et al. (2002), whereas the
in present paper1. A year is classified as a positive (negative) IOD period of rainy season tends to be longer at Citeko in the moun-
year when the five month running average of the DMI having tainous region. Besides, rainfall decrease in the plain stations is
a standard deviation equal to or greater than 1 (1) for at least not clear in the DJF, but it tends to increase at Bogor in a foothill
four consecutive months in the analysis year. All seven positive of the mountains.
IOD events appear simultaneously with El Nio events, whereas The average anomaly in rainfall variations at the northwestern
six negative IOD events occur in three La Nia and three non- Jawa stations in the late dry season (ASO) and early rainy season
El Nio/La Nia years (Table 2). (NovemberJanuary, NDJ) are shown in Fig. 3. In ASO, drought
years (normalized rainfall anomaly 1.0) occur during El Nio
1
We used the DMI calculated from the HadISST data set from the website years including 1982, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, and 2006. Five of
of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)/JAMSTEC (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/ the six drought years correspond to positive IOD years. On the
frsgc/research/d1/iod/). other hand, wet years (normalized rainfall anomaly 1.0) occur
 SOLA, 2012, Vol. 8, 069072, doi:10.2151/sola.2012-018
Fig. 3. Normalized anomaly of rainfall amount (bar), rainy days (solid
line), and heavy rain days (dashed line) in ASO and NDJ averaged for all
northwestern Jawa stations. The yellow dashed line indicates the linear
regression trend of annual rainfall anomaly. E and L indicate El Nio
and La Nia years, respectively. Red and blue bars indicate positive and
negative IOD years, respectively. Green bar shows neutral years. The
number of heavy rain days is calculated as the number of days with a daily
rainfall amount in the upper 5th percentile during May 1985April 2008.
during 1986, 1992, 1996, and 1998. Three of the four wet years
correspond to negative IOD years (including a year with simulta-
neous occurrence of La Nia). Besides, the anomaly rainfall tends
to vary in La Nia years. The interannual variation of rainy days
anomaly shows similar characteristics to that of rainfall anomaly.
Thus, drought conditions in the dry season generally appear in
positive IOD years with the simultaneous occurrence of El Nio.
In addition, abundant rainfall tends to occur in negative IOD
years rather than single La Nia years (see also Fig. 2). On the
other hand, northwestern Jawa rainfall tends to be unrelated with
ENSO/IOD in the early rainy season (NDJ). Drought conditions
occurred in three El Nio years (1982, 1987, and 2002, two with
positive IOD) and two La Nia years (1998 and 2000). However,
northwestern Jawa rainfall tends to be abundant in neutral years.
Abundant rainfall occurred in three neutral years (1978, 1981, and
1989) and an El Nio year (1986) in the former half of the anal-
ysis period. Significant decreasing trends in the rainfall amount
and rainy days were observed in NDJ, whereas no significant
trend was found in other seasons except for an increase in rainfall
Fig. 4. Simultaneous correlation of the average rainfall for all northwest-
ern Jawa stations with SST and 850 hPa wind for ASO, and NDJ. Areas
above the 95% confidence level are colored for SST and dotted for zonal
or meridional wind. Arrow indicates the correlation coefficients between
the rainfall and the zonal/meridional winds at 5 grid interval over the dot-
ted area (1.25 1.25 spatial resolution).
71
amount in FebruaryApril (FMA) (Mann-Kendall rank statistics
tests were employed to confirm the significance of the trend).
Seasonal relationships among rainfall, SST and wind are
examined by correlating seasonal mean rainfall in northwestern
Jawa with the grid point values of SST and wind (Fig. 4). Below-
(above-) normal rainfall in northwestern Jawa during the dry
season (ASO) tends to occur in conjunction with warm (cold)
SSTs in the central Pacific, locally cold (warm) SSTs surrounding
the maritime continent, and warm (cold) SSTs in the western
Indian Ocean. The rainfall is also positively correlated with zonal
wind over the Jawa and surrounding seas. In marked contrast,
northwestern Jawa rainfall during the rainy season (NDJ) tends to
be unrelated to equatorial SST. However, the rainfall is negatively
correlated with subtropical SSTs in both hemispheres. The rainfall
is also negatively correlated with meridional wind over the South
China Sea and the western Jawa Sea in NDJ. Our results obtained
for the correlation of average rainfall in northwestern Jawa with
SSTs agree with previous studies based on wider regional average
for the southern part of or the whole Indonesia (Aldrian and
Susanto 2003; Hendon 2003).
Differences in SST, divergence, and water vapor between
negative and positive IOD years (negative minus positive) in the
dry season (ASO) are shown in Fig. 5. Warmer SST surrounds the
Indonesian maritime continent and the South Pacific Convergence
Zone region, and cooler SSTs are located over the Nio 3.4 region
and the western Indian Ocean. A positive atmospheric water vapor
(specific humidity) anomaly over the maritime continent corre-
sponds to a warmer SST region. Besides, large-scale convergence
is observed over the maritime continent. These are favorable
conditions to induce rainfall over the island of Jawa. In the rainy
season, on the other hand, differences in SST, specific humidity
and divergence are not significant over the maritime continent (not
shown).
4. Summary and discussions
In this study, we examined the rainfall variability in northwest-
ern Jawa and its relation to IOD and ENSO events. Northwestern
Jawa rainfall is highly coherent with local and remote SSTs during
the dry season (MayOctober), but uncorrelated with equatorial
SST during the rainy season (NovemberApril). IOD events
clearly influence rainfall variation in northwestern Jawa. Drought
conditions during the dry season typically occur in conjunction
with the simultaneous development of positive IOD and El Nio,
Fig. 5. Composite of the negative IOD-minus-positive IOD SST (upper),
850 hPa specific humidity (middle), and 850 hPa divergence (bottom) for
ASO. Only the differences at or above the 95% confidence level are col-
ored.
72 Hamada et al., ENSO/IOD Effects on Jawa Rainfall Variability
when anomalously cold SSTs typically surround Indonesia while
warm anomalies develop in the central and eastern Pacific and
western Indian Ocean. The cooler SSTs lead to surface divergence
and decrease in lower atmospheric water vapor, suppressing atmo-
spheric convection over Jawa. On the other hand, wet conditions
during the dry season tend to occur during negative IOD years,
when anomalously warm SSTs and abundant water vapor surround
the maritime continent. Rainfall variability in northwestern Jawa
during the dry season is related to IOD phase (Indian Ocean SST
variation) through changes in circulation pattern and atmospheric
water vapor content. This study describes the importance of neg-
ative IOD (warmer SST off Jawa and Sumatere) in inducing more
rainfall over northwestern Jawa compared with the single La Nia
events. These results may suggest the asymmetric influence of
ENSO to the dry season rainfall.
As described in previous studies, interannual rainfall vari-
ations in the rainy season are less related to ENSO/IOD (e.g.,
Haylock and McBride 2001; Hendon 2003), but are negatively
correlated with subtropical SSTs (Fig. 4). Rainfall in northwestern
Jawa is also negatively correlated with meridional wind over the
South China Sea and the western Jawa Sea in NDJ. This may
imply that the northerly winter monsoon was strengthened over
the South China Sea during wet years and the increased wind
speed may have induced evaporative cooling of SST. Hattori et al.
(2011) statistically showed that cross-equatorial northerly surges
are related to increased rainfall over the northern coastal region
of Jawa Island. Wu et al. (2007) stated that trans-equatorial mon-
soon flow caused heavy rainfall over northwestern Jawa in late
January and early February of 2007 through interaction with the
local land-sea breeze circulation. This suggests that an anomalous
northern hemisphere winter monsoon and/or northerly surge (or
cold surge) may influence rainfall variations over northwestern
Jawa. Rainfall differences between plain and mountain regions in
the rainy season are also described (Fig. 2). Thus, it will be also
needed to investigate the spatial rainfall distribution patterns over
northwestern Jawa with diurnal time scale for both strong north-
erly surge and weak wind conditions using weather radar and rain
gauge observation data (Qian et al. 2010; Yamanaka et al. 2008.)
Abundant rainfall tends to occur during neutral (non-ENSO
and non-IOD) years, especially in the rainy season. Figure 3
shows a clear decreasing trend of the rainfall amount in the rainy
season. These neutral years appear in the earlier part of the analy-
sis period. This may be related to inter-decadal variation of mon-
soon rainfall intensity and the timing of onset/peak/withdrawal.
Aldrian and Djamil (2008) showed a decreasing trend in the accu-
mulated monthly and annual rainfall amounts during 19552005
in the Brantas catchment area, East Jawa. In addition, they noted
a decrease of monsoon dominance, which leads to changes in the
annual pattern and an increase in the dry spell period. Thus, we
need to further investigate the long-term trend of monsoon rainfall
and its seasonal march over Jawa on the basis of monthly or
shorter periods.
Furthermore, some neutral years are followed by El Nio
years. From the composite of SST anomalies in neutral years, high
SST anomalies centered around 160E appear in the equatorial
western Pacific in NDJ (not shown). The occurrence of these
anomalies might be related to Indonesian rainfall and warm water
concentration in the warm pool region before the developing stage
of El Nio. Annamalai et al. (2010) examined the effects of vari-
ations in SST and precipitation over the equatorial eastern Indian
Ocean and Indonesian seas on the amplitude of a developing El
Nio using model studies. Influences of maritime continent rain-
fall variability on El Nio development is one of the subjects for a
future study.
Acknowledgment
We would like to acknowledge Dr. K. Mizuno for his
encouragements and helpful suggestions. We are grateful for the
constructive comments of anonymous reviewers and the editor
(Dr. R. Kawamura) that helped to improve the paper. The present
work was supported by the Climate Variability Study and Societal
Application through Indonesia-Japan Maritime Continent COE
-Radar-Buoy Network Optimization for Rainfall Prediction Proj-
ect of Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustain-
able Development (SATREPS), JST-JICA.
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Manuscript received 8 February 2012, accepted 18 May 2012
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