Numerical weather prediction

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An example of 500 mbar geopotential height prediction from a numerical weather

prediction model

Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into

mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts
to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and
computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge
datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine
enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful
supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in
scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble
forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther
into the future than would otherwise be possible.

Contents
[hide]

• 1 Physical overview
• 2 History
• 3 Definition of a forecast model
• 4 Ensembles
• 5 See also
• 6 References
• 7 Further reading

• 8 External links
 [edit] Physical overview
The atmosphere is a fluid. The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the
state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and
thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.

[edit] History
British mathematician Lewis Fry Richardson first proposed numerical weather prediction
in 1922. Richardson attempted to perform a numerical forecast but it was not successful.
The first successful numerical prediction was performed in 1950 by a team composed of
the American meteorologists Jule Charney, Philip Thompson, Larry Gates, and
Norwegian meteorologist Ragnar Fjörtoft and applied mathematician John von Neumann,
using the ENIAC digital computer. They used a simplified form of atmospheric dynamics
based on the barotropic vorticity equation. This simplification greatly reduced demands
on computer time and memory, so that the computations could be performed on the
relatively primitive computers available at the time. Later models used more complete
equations for atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics.

Operational numerical weather prediction (i.e., routine predictions for practical use)
began in 1955 under a joint project by the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Weather Bureau.[1]

[edit] Definition of a forecast model

Main article: Atmospheric model

A model, in this context, is a computer program that produces meteorological information

for future times at given positions and altitudes. The horizontal domain of a model is
either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional , covering only part of the Earth.
Regional models also are known as limited-area models.
A 96-hour forecast of 850 mbar geopotential height and temperature from the Global
Forecast System

The forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics
of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly.
Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use
different solution methods. Some global models use spectral methods for the horizontal
dimensions and finite difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional
models and other global models usually use finite-difference methods in all three
dimensions. Regional models also can use finer grids to explicitly resolve smaller-scale
meteorological phenomena, since they do not have to solve equations for the whole
globe.

Models are initialized using observed data from a variety of sources e.g radiosondes,
weather satellites,aircraft and surface weather observations. The irregularly spaced
observations are processed by data assimilation and objective analysis methods, which
perform quality control and obtain values at locations usable by the model's mathematical
algorithms (usually an evenly spaced grid). The data are then used in the model as the
starting point for a forecast. Commonly, the set of equations used is known as the
primitive equations. These equations are initialized from the analysis data and rates of
change are determined. The rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere a short
time into the future. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find
new rates of change, and these new rates of change predict the atmosphere at a yet further
time into the future. This time stepping procedure is continually repeated until the
solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step is related to the
distance between the points on the computational grid. Time steps for global climate
models may be on the order of tens of minutes, while time steps for regional models may
be a few seconds to a few minutes.

[edit] Ensembles

Mean ensemble forecast at left, including spreads in color

Main article: Ensemble forecasting

As proposed by Edward Lorenz in 1963, it is impossible to definitively predict the state

of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the fluid dynamics equations involved.
Furthermore, existing observation networks have limited spatial and temporal resolution,
especially over large bodies of water such as the Pacific Ocean, which introduces
uncertainty into the true initial state of the atmosphere. To account for this uncertainty,
stochastic or "ensemble" forecasting is used, involving multiple forecasts created with
different model systems, different physical parametrizations, or varying initial conditions.
The ensemble forecast is usually evaluated in terms of the ensemble mean of a forecast
variable, and the ensemble spread, which represents the degree of agreement between
various forecasts in the ensemble system, known as ensemble members. A common
misconception is that low spread amongst ensemble members necessarily implies more
confidence in the ensemble mean. Although a spread-skill relationship sometimes exists,
the relationship between ensemble spread and skill varies substantially depending on
such factors as the forecast model and the region for which the forecast is made.