RME-5

1. Casual Loop Diagram

2. Stock Flow Diagram

Total Population

Susceptible
Infectious Recovered
Population
Infection Rate Population Population
Recovery Rate

Average Duration
Contact Rate of Illness
Infectivity

3. Equations
Infection Rate= Contact rate/susceptible population*Infectivity
Infectious population=Infection rate- recovery rate

Recovery rate= Infectious population*average duration of illness

Recovered population=0

4. Model Behavior

Susceptible Population
9.0e+37

6.7e+37
People/year

4.5e+37

2.2e+37

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Month)
Susceptible Population : Current

Infection Rate
2

1.725
1/year

1.45

1.175

.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Month)
Infection Rate : Current
 Infectious Population
2

1.725
People

1.45

1.175

.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Month)
Infectious Population : Current

Recovery Rate
2

1.725
1/year

1.45

1.175

.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Month)
Recovery Rate : Current
 Recovered Population
.1

.075
People

.05

.025

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Month)
Recovered Population : Current