Bab III Sisprod Acara 1
Bab III Sisprod Acara 1
A. HASIL
1. GRAFIK DATA PLOTING AWAL DI EXCEL
A. PRODUK 1
260
255
250
Produk 1
245
240
235
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Periode (bulan)
B. PRODUK 2
300
250
200
150 Produk 2
100
50
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Periode (bulan)
C. PRODUK 3
METODE MA
CFE -1,66661
MAD 5,888888
MSE 48,73063
MAPE 2,317522
Trk,Signal -0,28301
R-square 0,220371
m=3
CFE 37,07356
MAD 6,080347
MSE 68,30392
MAPE 1,858626
Trk,Signal 6,097277
R-square
Alpha=0,92
Beta=0,27
F(0)=260
T(0)=0
METODE DEST
CFE 30,41656
MAD 6,118782
MSE 72,68951
MAPE 1,867471
Trk,Signal 4,971016
R-square
Alpha=0,6
F(0)=260
F'(0)=260
09-23- R-square
Actual Forecast by Forecast MAPE Tracking
2017 CFE MAD MSE
Data HWA Error (%) Signal
Month
1 250
2 255 250 5 5 5 25 1,960784 1
3 265 257,308 7,691986 12,69199 6,345993 42,08332 2,43171 2
4 270 272,0466 -2,0466 10,64539 4,912862 29,45174 1,873807 2,16684
5 290 277,9295 12,07047 22,71585 6,702263 58,51284 2,445912 3,389281 0,966389
6 280 303,015 -23,015 -0,29913 9,964808 152,7482 3,600657 -3,00E-02
7 275 285,2592 -10,2592 -10,5584 10,01388 144,8321 3,622318 -1,05437
8 270 270,0552 -5,52E-02 -10,6136 8,591212 124,1422 3,107767 -1,2354
9 270 262,5921 7,407867 -3,20572 8,443295 115,484 3,062253 -0,37968
10 265 265,9985 -0,99847 -4,20419 7,616092 102,7632 2,763867 -0,55201
11 265 262,2977 2,702332 -1,50186 7,124716 93,21715 2,589455 -0,2108
12 260 263,3079 -3,30786 -4,80972 6,77773 85,73758 2,46971 -0,70964
13 270 257,423 12,577 7,767273 7,261002 91,77452 2,65208 1,069725
14 275 272,4426 2,557373 10,32465 6,899184 85,21803 2,519608 1,496502
15 280 281,6114 -1,61139 8,713257 6,521484 79,3165 2,380743 1,336085
16 285 286,4753 -1,47525 7,238007 6,185069 74,17382 2,256536 1,170239
17 290 290,4114 -0,41141 6,826599 5,824215 69,54854 2,124369 1,172106
18 298 294,871 3,129028 9,955627 5,665675 66,03338 2,061171 1,757183
19 285 304,2176 -19,2176 -9,26193 6,418557 82,88233 2,321273 -1,44299
20 290 283,0902 6,90979 -2,35214 6,444411 81,03301 2,324506 -0,36499
21 295 286,7137 8,286346 5,934204 6,536508 80,41454 2,348727 0,907855
22 280 297,1804 -17,1804 -11,2462 7,04336 90,64079 2,529066 -1,59671
23 280 276,2188 3,781189 -7,465 6,895079 87,17063 2,475492 -1,08266
24 270 273,8821 -3,88214 -11,3471 6,764082 84,03587 2,430376 -1,67756
25 265 262,9885 2,011475 -9,33566 6,566057 80,70296 2,360737 -1,42181
26 275 257,9946 17,0054 7,669739 6,98363 89,04218 2,513659 1,098245
27 285 276,3222 8,677795 16,34753 7,04879 88,5138 2,534089 2,319197
28 289 294,3684 -5,36838 10,97916 6,986553 86,3029 2,509033 1,57147
29 310 297,9522 12,04782 23,02698 7,167313 88,40458 2,558224 3,212777
30 320 323,2379 -3,23789 19,78909 7,031815 85,71766 2,5049 2,814223
31 315 334,6059 -19,6059 0,183228 7,45095 95,6734 2,628873 2,46E-02
32 310 319,7865 -9,7865 -9,60327 7,52629 95,6767 2,645907 -1,27596
33 305 305,6107 -0,61072 -10,214 7,310179 92,69846 2,56948 -1,39723
34 298 298,0035 -3,51E-03 -10,2175 7,088765 89,88941 2,491653 -1,44137
35 289 290,8568 -1,85678 -12,0743 6,934883 87,34701 2,437265 -1,74109
36 270 280,9989 -10,9989 -23,0732 7,050997 88,30782 2,48402 -3,27233
37 256,4806
38 240,3479
39 224,2152
40 208,0825
41 191,9497
42 175,817
CFE -23,0732
MAD 7,050997
MSE 88,30782
MAPE 2,48402
Trk,Signal -3,27233
R-square
c=1
Alpha=0,76
Beta=0,92
Gamma=0,01
F(0)=250
T(0)=0
S(1)=0
METODE HWM
09-23- R-square
Actual Forecast by Forecast MAPE Tracking
2017 CFE MAD MSE
Data HWM Error (%) Signal
Month
1 250
2 255 250 5 5 5 25 1,960784 1
3 265 257,3082 7,691833 12,69183 6,345917 42,08215 2,431681 2
4 270 272,0473 -2,0473 10,64453 4,913045 29,45192 1,873874 2,166585
5 290 277,9297 12,07025 22,71478 6,702347 58,51168 2,445945 3,389079 0,966392
6 280 303,0165 -23,0165 -0,3017 9,965174 152,761 3,60079 -3,03E-02
7 275 285,2601 -10,2601 -10,5618 10,01432 144,8457 3,622481 -1,05467
8 270 270,056 -5,60E-02 -10,6177 8,591701 124,1539 3,107945 -1,23581
9 270 262,5923 7,407684 -3,21005 8,443699 115,4939 3,0624 -0,38017
10 265 265,9983 -0,99826 -4,20831 7,616428 102,7719 2,763989 -0,55253
11 265 262,2975 2,702454 -1,50586 7,125031 93,22508 2,58957 -0,21135
12 260 263,3078 -3,30777 -4,81363 6,778007 85,74474 2,46981 -0,71018
13 270 257,4231 12,57687 7,763245 7,261246 91,78082 2,652168 1,069134
14 275 272,4432 2,556763 10,32001 6,899363 85,22361 2,519673 1,495791
15 280 281,6119 -1,61194 8,708069 6,521689 79,32181 2,380817 1,335247
16 285 286,4753 -1,47525 7,232819 6,18526 74,17878 2,256605 1,169364
17 290 290,4112 -0,41122 6,821594 5,824383 69,55317 2,124429 1,171213
18 298 294,8708 3,12915 9,950745 5,66584 66,03778 2,061231 1,75627
19 285 304,2178 -19,2178 -9,26703 6,418725 82,88696 2,321333 -1,44375
20 290 283,0914 6,90863 -2,3584 6,44451 81,03654 2,324541 -0,36595
21 295 286,7141 8,285858 5,92746 6,536577 80,41749 2,348752 0,906814
22 280 297,1807 -17,1807 -11,2532 7,043438 90,64404 2,529095 -1,59769
23 280 276,22 3,780029 -7,47318 6,895102 87,17335 2,475501 -1,08384
24 270 273,8825 -3,88251 -11,3557 6,764119 84,03858 2,43039 -1,67881
25 265 262,9887 2,011261 -9,34442 6,566083 80,70553 2,360748 -1,42314
26 275 257,9945 17,00546 7,661041 6,983658 89,04474 2,51367 1,096995
27 285 276,3229 8,677063 16,3381 7,04879 88,51576 2,53409 2,31786
28 289 294,3696 -5,3696 10,96851 6,986597 86,30527 2,509049 1,569935
29 310 297,9523 12,04767 23,01617 7,16735 88,40674 2,558238 3,211253
30 320 323,2392 -3,2392 19,77698 7,031896 85,72004 2,504928 2,812467
31 315 334,6062 -19,6062 0,170776 7,45104 95,67614 2,628903 0,02292
32 310 319,7863 -9,78635 -9,61557 7,526372 95,67925 2,645935 -1,27758
33 305 305,6111 -0,61105 -10,2266 7,310268 92,70094 2,56951 -1,39894
34 298 298,0038 -3,81E-03 -10,2304 7,088861 89,89182 2,491685 -1,44317
35 289 290,8569 -1,85687 -12,0873 6,934978 87,34936 2,437298 -1,74295
36 270 280,999 -10,999 -23,0863 7,051093 88,31015 2,484052 -3,27414
37 256,4822
38 240,3511
39 224,22
40 208,0888
41 191,9577
42 175,8266
CFE -23,0863
MAD 7,051093
MSE 88,31015
MAPE 2,484052
Trk,Signal -3,27414
R-square
c=1
Alpha=0,76
Beta=0,92
Gamma=0,01
F(0)=250
T(0)=0
S(1)=1
2 CL
1 TS
0 UCL
-1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
LCL
-2
-3
-4
Periode (bulan)
B. Produk 2 Metode SEST
4 CL
2 TS
0 UCL
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 LCL
-2
-4
Periode (bulan)
1 CL
0 TS
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 UCL
-1
-2 LCL
-3
-4
Periode (bulan)