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MIT Lincoln Laboratory is a federally funded research and development center that
applies advanced technology to problems of national security. The books in the MIT
Lincoln Laboratory Series cover a broad range of technology areas in which Lincoln
Laboratory has made leading contributions. The books listed above and future volumes
in this series renew the knowledge-sharing tradition established by the seminal MIT
Radiation Laboratory Series published between 1947 and 1953.
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This book provides an introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a


computational perspective. The aim of the rst part of the book is to familiarize the
reader with the foundations of probabilistic models and decision theory. The second part
of the book discusses the application of the theory to problems relevant to a variety of
mission areas. The subject of decision making under uncertainty is quite broad and has
its origins in several different elds. The text aims to be as concise as possible, providing
references to additional material that may be relevant to a wide set of applications.
The target audience for this book includes advanced engineering undergraduate and
graduate students as well as professionals. Disciplines for which the book would be
especially useful include computer science, aerospace, electrical engineering, and opera-
tions research. The text is intended to be introductory in nature. Although algorithms
are outlined in the text, proofs are omitted. The book requires some mathematical
maturity and assumes some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. The rst
ve chapters can be used as the basis of an undergraduate or graduate course. The topics
in Chapters 6 and 7 are more appropriate for the graduate level.
The book was written over the course of two years while I was at Lincoln Laboratory,
a federally funded research and development center of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. While teaching a course on decision making under uncertainty, I was
invited by a member of the Lincoln Laboratory book series to prepare a volume. Much
of the material in this book originated from the course. The later part of the course
consisted of guest lectures from researchers from Lincoln Laboratory and campus with
the aim to show how the principles and techniques discussed in the rst part of the
course can be applied to problems of national interest. Some of these guest lectures have
become chapters in this book.

Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Stanford, Calif.
February 6, 2015

Ancillary material is available on the books webpage:


http://mitpress.mit.edu/decision-making-under-uncertainty

YJY
"CPVU UIF "VUIPST

Mykel J. Kochenderfer is an assistant professor in the Department of


Aeronautics and Astronautics at Stanford University. Prior to joining
the faculty at Stanford, he was a staff member at MIT Lincoln Lab-
oratory. He received BS and MS degrees in computer science from
Stanford University and a doctorate from the University of Edinburgh.
His current research activities include airspace modeling and aircraft
collision avoidance. In 2011, Prof. Kochenderfer was awarded the Lincoln Laboratory
Early Career Technical Achievement Award for recognition of his development of a
new collision avoidance system and advanced techniques for improving air traffic safety.
He was involved in articial intelligence research at Rockwell Scientic, the Honda
Research Institute, and Microsoft Research. He is a third-generation pilot.

Christopher Amato is an assistant professor at the University of New


Hampshire where he develops scalable planning and learning methods
for single and multi-agent systems. He received a BA from Tufts Uni-
versity and an MS and a PhD from the University of Massachusetts,
Amherst. He was also a postdoctoral associate and research scientist at
MIT. His research interests include decision making under uncertainty,
machine learning, and multi-agent systems. He is currently working on research in these
areas applied to multi-robot navigation, surveillance, and search and rescue domains.

Girish Chowdhary is an assistant professor at the school of Mechanical


and Aerospace Engineering at the Oklahoma State University. He
received his MS and PhD degrees from Georgia Institute of Technology.
He was a postdoctoral researcher at Georgia Institute of Technology
and MIT. He also has research experience at the German Aerospace
Centers Institute of Flight Systems. His ongoing research interest is in
creating provable algorithms to enable intelligent adaptive autonomy for large-scale and
long-duration operation involving collaborating mobile agents. He has authored more
than 50 peer reviewed papers in the areas of adaptive control, system identication,
distributed sensing and inference, and mission planning.

YYJ
YYJJ "CPVU UIF "VUIPST

Jonathan P. How is a professor in the Department of Aeronautics


and Astronautics at MIT. He received a BA Sc from the University of
Toronto in 1987 and his SM and PhD in aeronautics and astronautics
from MIT in 1990 and 1993, respectively. How studied for two years
as a postdoctoral associate for the Middeck Active Control Experiment,
which ew on board the Space Shuttle Endeavour. Prior to joining the
faculty at MIT in 2000, he was an assistant professor in the Department of Aeronautics
and Astronautics at Stanford University. Among his other achievements, Prof. How
was the planning and control lead for the MIT DARPA Urban Challenge team, was
the recipient of the 2002 Institute of Navigation Burka Award, and received a Boeing
Special Invention award in 2008.

Hayley J. Davison Reynolds has been a technical staff member at MIT


Lincoln Laboratory since 2009. She previously worked for Instrata,
Ltd. in Cambridge, UK, as a human-computer interaction consultant
for Microsoft, Yahoo, and the London 2012 Olympic Committee.
She received her PhD in aeronautical systems and applied psychology
and SM in aeronautics and astronautics from MIT in 2006 and 2001,
respectively. She received her BS in psychology from the University of Illinois in 1999.
Her research interests include human-systems integration of complex systems in aviation
and biosurveillance, and any messy human-systems problems in general.

Jason R. Thornton is a member of the technical staff in the Infor-


matics and Decision Support Group at MIT Lincoln Laboratory. He
received a BS degree in computer science from the University of Cal-
ifornia at Irvine and MS and PhD degrees in electrical and computer
engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, where he was awarded
the A.G. Milnes Award for an electrical and computer engineering
thesis of the highest quality in 2007. His work at Lincoln Laboratory includes research
related to sensor fusion, image and video processing, and probabilistic models. In 2012,
he received the Lincoln Laboratory Early Career Technical Achievement Award for his
development of novel video processing techniques. He also serves as the deputy lead of
the Laboratorys Autonomous Systems technology initiative.
"CPVU UIF "VUIPST YYJJJ

Pedro A. Torres-Carrasquillo joined the Information Systems Tech-


nology Group, currently Human Language Technology Group, at
MIT Lincoln Laboratory in 2002 as a technical staff member. At Lin-
coln Laboratory, he has been involved in a number of areas related to
information extraction from speech, including language, dialect, and
speaker recognition. His current areas of interest include automatic
dialect recognition by combining multiple knowledge sources and speaker recognition in
low-data conditions focusing on forensic speaker recognition. Recently, he has been over-
seeing the development of software tools for speaker recognition. Dr. Torres-Carrasquillo
received a BS degree from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez in 1992, an MS
degree from Ohio State University in 1995, and a PhD degree from Michigan State
University in 2002, all in electrical engineering.

N. Kemal re is currently a PhD candidate in the Department of


Aeronautics and Astronautics at MIT. He received his BSc and MS
degrees from Istanbul Technical University. He is currently affiliated
with the Aerospace Controls Lab at MIT. His primary research interests
are multiagent decision making under uncertainty and distributed
learning.

John Vian is a technical fellow at Boeing Research and Technology


in Seattle, responsible for leading multivehicle autonomous systems
research. He received a BS in mechanical engineering from Purdue
University in 1981, an MS in aeronautical engineering from Wichita
State University, and a PhD from Wichita State University. He has 30
years of experience in ight controls, autonomous systems, and vehicle
health management, and he has taught at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and
Cogswell College.
"DLOPXMFEHNFOUT

Throughout the process of preparing this manuscript for the Lincoln Laboratory book
series, Jim Ward and Dave Martinez have been very generous with their time in helping
me. The nal draft beneted greatly from Dorothy Ryans careful copyediting.
Over the past two years, a number of colleagues and friends have made comments and
suggestions on early drafts, including Jonathan Christensen, James Chryssanthacopoulos,
Louis Dressel, Ann Drumm, Ryan Gardner, Lucas Hansen, Jeremy Kepner, Youngjun
Kim, Mary Anne Kochenderfer, Jim Kuchar, Robert Moss, Wes Olson, Carl Quillen,
Dorothy Ryan, Josh Silbermann, Tan Trinh, Michael Watson, and Chulhee Yun.
Chapter 7 is extended from a series of tutorials developed with Shlomo Zilberstein
and Matthijs Spaan. Chapter 8 discusses research activities funded by the Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. Chapter 10 describes research funded
by the Federal Aviation Administration under the direction of Neal Suchy. Chapter 11
discusses research supported by Boeing Research & Technology.
The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not
be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either
expressed or implied, of the U.S. government.

YYW

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