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Statistik Industri 2

Minggu 1
Program Sarjana Jurusan Teknik Industri
Fakultas Teknologi Industri
Dosen Pengampu

Dr.Eng. Erwin Widodo, M.Eng.


Yudha Andrian S., S.T., MBA
Effi Latiffianti, ST, MSc
Diesta Iva Maftuhah, ST, MT
diesta@ie.its.ac.id
Sasaran Kompetensi

1 Mahasiswa memahami statistik inferensi.

Mahasiswa mampu menerapkan metode-metode statistik inferensi


2
dalam permasalahan industri.

Mahasiswa dapat menggunakan perangkat lunak statistik, khususnya


3
mengenai statistik inferensi.

Mahasiswa dapat mengupdate pengetahuan mereka tentang statistik


4 inferensia, menyajikan, dan mendiskusikannya secara individu
maupun sebagai pimpinan/anggota kelompok.
Rencana Pembelajaran (1)

Minggu
Materi
ke-

1 Pengantar Statistik Inferensi

2 Interval Kepercayaan

3 Uji hipotesa satu parameter

4 Quiz 1 dan Latihan Soal

5 Uji hipotesa dua parameter

6 Uji hipotesa dua parameter


7 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) : One way
Rencana Pembelajaran (2)

Week Module content

8 Evaluasi Bersama Tengah Semester

9 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) : Two way

10 Goodness of Fit and Contingency Analysis

11 Korelasi dan Regresi Linear

12 Quiz 2, Penjelasan Tugas Besar dan Latihan Soal

13 Multiple Regression

14 Statistik Non Parametrik

15 Presentasi tugas besar

16 Evaluasi Bersama Akhir Semester(EBAS)


Penilaian
Tipe Keterangan
Quiz (20%) Quiz 1: 10%
Quiz 2: 10%
Tugas Besar (20%) Kelompok +/- 7 orang 1 kelas 7 kelompok dosen kelas yang
membagi
Dikumpulkan minggu ke-14
Tiap kelompok melakukan pendampigan setiap minggu dengan asisten
kelas/dosen
EBTS (30%)
Open note A4/closed book

EBAS (30%)
Open note A4/closed book
Peraturan Perkuliahan

Memiliki dan membawa minimum 1 buku dari referensi yang digunakan,


serta sudah membaca materi yang akan diajarkan di kelas.
Berperilaku baik selama berada di dalam kelas.
Tidak mengaktifkan alat komunikasi (HP, tablet, Ipad dll).
Penggunaan laptop hanya atas persetujuan dosen / asisten yang masuk
kelas.
Segala kecurangan dalam proses evaluasi akan diproses sesuai peraturan
akademik yang berlaku.
Mahasiswa datang tepat waktu.
Toleransi keterlambatan maksimal 15 menit dari jam mulai kelas.
Referensi

Groebner, D.F., et al., Business Statistics: A Decision Making


Approach, 8th ed., Prentice Hall Inc., NJ, 2011.
Walpole, R., Myers, R., Probability & Statistics for Engineer &
Scientist, Mac Millan, NY, 1978.
Mendenhall, W., Sincich, T., Statistics for Engineering & The
Sciences, Prentice Hall Inc., NJ, 1995.
Dll.
Pengantar Statistik Industri II
Statistic and Statistics

Statistik (Statistic)
Statistika (Statistics)

Apa Perbedaannya?
Statistic and Statistics

Statistic
a fact or piece of data from a study of a large quantity of numerical
data: the statistics show that the crime rate has increased.

Statistics
the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in
large quantities, esp. for the purpose of inferring proportions in a
whole from those in a representative sample.
a branch of mathematics used to summarize, analyze, and interpret
what we observe, to make sense or meaning of our observations.

Source: Dictionary Application (Apple Inc.)


A bit concept review...

Population is ...
Sample is ...
Variable is ...
Parameter is ...
Relation between statistics & parameters ...
Difference between statistics and probability
Statistics assumptions :
Population and its parameters are (unknown / known)
Sample is used to ..... parameters
A bit concept review... (2)

A population is a collection of all units of interest.


A sample is a subset of a population that is actually observed.
A measurable property or attribute associated with each unit of a
population
is called a variable.
A parameter is a numerical characteristic of a population.
A statistic is a numerical characteristic of a sample.

Statistics are used to infer the values of parameters.


In probability, we assume that the population and its parameters are
known and compute the probability of drawing a particular sample.
In statistics, we assume that the population and its parameters are
unknown and the sample is used to infer the values of the
parameters.
A bit concept review...
Statistics Classification
Descriptive and Inferential

Descriptive statistics are procedures used to summarize,


organize, and make sense of a set of scores or observations.
Descriptive statistics are typically presented graphically, in tabular
form (in tables), or as summary statistics (single values).

Inferential statistics are procedures used that allow


researchers to infer or generalize observations made with
samples to the larger population from which they were
selected.
Descriptive & Inferential (2)

Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics

Organize Generalize from


samples to pops
Summarize
Hypothesis testing
Simplify Relationships among
Presentation of data variables

Describing data Make predictions


Statistik Deskriptif

1. Melingkupi $
50
Pengumpulan Data
Penyajian Data 25
Penggolongan Data
0
2. Tujuan
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Menggambarkan Data
X = 30.5 S2 = 113
Statistik Inferensi

1. Melingkupi Populasi ?
Penaksiran (Estimasi)
Uji Hipotesa

2. Tujuan
Membuat keputusan tentang
karakteristik populasi
Statistik Inferensi

Membuat pernyataan tentang populasi dengan


menganalisa hasil sampling.

Sample statistics Population


Inference Parameter
(Known) (Unknown, but can be
estimated from sample
evidence)

Population
Sample
Review of Estimating
Population Value
Estimation & Hypothesis testing

Estimation Est. interval & poin


Parameter estimation
Generate a point estimate of the quantity of interest
Include some information on precision of estimate as a measure of
uncertainty
Hypothesis Testing
Determine if the parameter differs from some hypothesized value
Compute a test statistic and P-value as a measure of uncertainty
Estimasi & Uji Hipotesis

1 parameter 2 parameter
Point and Interval Estimates

A point estimate is a single number,


a confidence interval provides additional
information about variability

Lower Upper
Confidence Confidence
Point Estimate Limit
Limit
Width of
confidence interval
Point Estimates
Confidence Intervals

How much uncertainty is associated with a point estimate


of a population parameter?

An interval estimate provides more information about a


population characteristic than does a point estimate

Such interval estimates are called confidence intervals


Estimation Process
Confidence Level

Confidence Level
Confidence in which the interval will
contain the unknown population
parameter
A percentage (less than 100%)
Estimation (Confidence Interval)
Confidence Interval for
( Known)

Assumptions
Population standard deviation is known
Population is normally distributed
If population is not normal, use large sample
Confidence interval estimate


x z/2
n
Finding the Critical Value

Consider a 95% confidence interval: z/2 1.96


1 .95


.025 .025
2 2

z units: z.025= -1.96 0 z.025= 1.96


Lower Upper
x units: Confidence Point Estimate Confidence
Limit Limit
Margin of Error

Margin of Error (e): the amount added and


subtracted to the point estimate to form the
confidence interval

Example: Margin of error for estimating , known:


x z/2 e z/2
n n
Factors Affecting Margin of Error


e z/2
n
Data variation, : e as

Sample size, n : e as n

Level of confidence, 1 - : e if 1 -
Example

A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal population


has a mean resistance of 2.20 ohms. We know from
past testing that the population standard deviation is
.35 ohms.

Determine a 95% confidence interval for the true mean


resistance of the population.
Example
(continued)
A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal population
has a mean resistance of 2.20 ohms. We know from
past testing that the population standard deviation is
.35 ohms.

Solution: x z /2
n

2.20 1.96 (.35/ 11)


2.20 .2068
1.9932 .......... ..... 2.4068
Interpretation

We are 95% confident that the true mean resistance is


between 1.9932 and 2.4068 ohms
Although the true mean may or may not be in this interval,
95% of intervals formed in this manner will contain the true
mean

An incorrect interpretation is that there is 95% probability that


this interval contains the true population mean.
(This interval either does or does not contain the true mean,
there is no probability for a single interval)
Students t Distribution

Note: t z as n increases

Standard
Normal
(t with df = )

t (df = 13)
t-distributions are bell-
shaped and symmetric, but
have fatter tails than the t (df = 5)
normal

0 t
Approximation for Large Samples

Since t approaches z as the sample size increases,


an approximation is sometimes used when n 30

Technically Approximation
correct for large n

s s
x t /2 x z/2
n n
Degrees of Freedom (df)

Number of Observations that Are Free to Vary


After Sample Statistic Has Been Calculated
Example
Sum of 3 Numbers Is 6
X1 = 1 (or Any Number) degrees of freedom
X2 = 2 (or Any Number) = n -1
X3 = 3 (Cannot Vary) = 3 -1
Sum = 6 =2
Then we talk about
HYPOTHESIS
References used in this presentation

Groebner, D.F., et al., Business Statistics: A Decision Making Approach, 8th ed.,
Prentice Hall Inc., NJ, 2011.
Lect.5. Statistical Analysis of Datayes the S Word. 2013. www.csub.edu