Math 2274 Lecture 4 - Conditional Probability

E.g. The table shows the number of students who achieved specific Math 1142 grades passing or
failing Math 2274 respectively. For instance, out of the total 300 students obtaining an A grade in
Math 1142, 240 passed Math 2274 and 60 failed the course.

Math 1142 Grade Total no. of students Pass Math 2274 Fail Math 2274
A 300 240 60
B 400 240 160
C 600 300 300
D 400 120 280
F 300 30 270
Total 2000 930 1070

Let A be the event person passes Math 1140. Then, P(A) is an unconditional probability, i.e.
there is no constraint on the set of people we are concerned with.

P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 930/2000 = 0.465

Let B be the event person has a C grade in A-level Maths. Then, if one wishes to find P(person
passes Math 2274 given that he/she has a C grade in A-level Maths), this is called a conditional
probability i.e. there is some constraint on the set of people we are concerned with.
300
n(AB) n(B) 2000
Hence, P(A|B) =
()
/
()
= 600 =P(AB)/P(B) = 0.5.
2000

Note: P(A|B) is P(A given B) or P(A conditional on B). See Definition 1 and Theorem 1.

1
E.g. 2 : Two fair dice are tossed. Find the probability that i) the total score is 9 ii) the total score is
9 if one die has a face with a 6.

Solution:

S = { (1,1), (1,2), , (6,6)} and so n(S) = 36 equally likely outcomes

i) Let B be the event total score on dice is 9.

B = {(3,6, (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)}

P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 4/34 = 1/9.

ii) Let A be the event that one die has a face with a 6.

A = {(1,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (6,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}

P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 11/36

A B = {(6,3), (3,6)}

P(A B) = n(A B)/n(S) = 2/26

2
 () 2/36
P(B|A) = = 11/36 = 2/11.
()

There is a need to find a method to calculate the conditional and unconditional probabilities of two
or more events. A tree diagram can be used to assist in the calculation of these probabilities.

E.g. 3: (Lecture notes e.g. 1.23) Two cards are dealt from a well-shuffled pack. What is the
probability that i) both cards are hearts? ii) the second card is a heart?

Solution:

i) Let A be event first card is a heart and B is event second card is a heart.

P(both cards are hearts) = P( first card is a heart AND second card is a heart) = P(AB)
13 12
By Theorem, P(AB) = P(A). P(B|A) = 52.51

Since P(A) = 13/52 and P(B|A) = 12/51 (since a heart was already chosen there are 12 remaining
to choose from out of 51 cards overall remaining).

ii) Consider the following diagram:

P(A)= 13/52 P(A)= 1-13/52= 39/52 Prior probabilities

A A

P(B|A)= 12/51 P(A|B) P(B|A)= 13/51 Conditional

B B = P(A|B) probabilities

AB AB AB AB

P(B) = P( second card is a heart) = P{( first card is a heart AND second card is a heart) OR (first
card is not a heart AND second card is a heart)} i.e. mutually exclusive events so use Axiom 3.

P(B) = P{(AB) (AB)}

= P(AB) +P (AB) (by Axiom 3)

= P(A).P(B|A) + P(A).P(B|A)
13 12 39 13
= 52 . 51 + 52 . 51 = 13/52 = 1/4