MGT 403 01-05

Course Information

CourseNumber MGT4030105

CourseTitle ProbabilityModelingandStatistics

TermandYear Fall2017

ClassMeetingTime,
Silver Cohort: Room 4420 - Mon. Wed 10:10 to 11:30 am
Day
Blue Cohort: Room 4420 - Mon. Wed 1:00 to 2:20 pm

Red Cohort: Room 4420 Mon. Wed. 2:40 4:00 pm

Green Cohort: Room 4200 - Tue. Thur. 1:00 to 2:20 pm

Gold Cohort: Room 4200 - Tue. Thur. 2:40 to 4:00pm

CourseSupport somfacultysupport@yale.edu

Contact Information
Professor(s) TA(s)
Part I: Probability Modeling Lead TA:
Name: Carolyn Tilney
Name: Art Swersey (Silver/Blue/Red) Email: carolyn.tilney@yale.edu

Office Location: Room 3542 Silver:

Name: Anuradha Sowani
Telephone Number: 203-804-7179 Email: anuradha.sowani@yale.edu

Name: Sergey Dudko

Email Address: arthur.swersey@yale.edu
Email: sergey.dudko@yale.edu
Office Hours: Tue. And Thur. 11:30 to 12:45 pm. Blue Cohorts:
Name: Sarim Fayyaz
Email: sarim.fayyaz@yale.edu

Name: Ed Kaplan (Green/Gold) Name: Webber Xu

Email: webber.xu@yale.edu
Office Location: 3550
Red Cohorts:
Telephone Number: 203-432-6031 Name Lynda Blancato
Email: lynda.blancato@yale.edu
Email Address: edward.kaplan@yale.edu
Name: Runit Jahawar
OfficeHours:Byappointment Email: runit.jhanwar@yale.edu
Part II: Statistics
Green Cohorts:
Name: Constana Esteves-Sorenson Name: Emily Muhs
(Silver/Blue/Red) Email: Emily.muhs@yale.edu

Name: Rituraji Shukla

Office Location: Room 5226
Email: rituraj.shukla@yale.edu
Telephone Number: 203-432-5334 Gold Cohorts:
Name: Xiaoxiao Wang
Email Address: constanca.esteves- Email: xiao.xiao.wang@yale.edu
sorenson@yale.edu
Name: Cooper Watts
Office Hours: Mon and Wed 4:15pm to 5:15 pm Email:cooper.watts@yale.edu

Name: Jonathan Feinstein (Green/Gold)

Office Location: Room 3556

Telephone Number: 203-432-5975

EmailAddress:jonathan.feinstein@yale.edu

OfficeHours:Wed.34pm,andThur.45pm
Review Sessions: TBD

Course Materials
Textbook(s) No textbook required
Optional Readings Here are some suggested books if you would like to learn more about the
topics covered in this course.

For Probability:

1) Introduction to Probability, Second Edition, by Charles Grinstead and J.

Laurie Snell. Comprehensive introduction to probability with many examples
but requires knowledge of calculus.

2) Fundamentals of Applied Probability Theory, by Alvin Drake. Also

requiring calculus, this book provides a very physical introduction to
probability. Calculus required for some but not all of the material.

3) Applied Probability: Models and Intuition by Arnold Barnett. Loaded with

terrific, real examples. Calculus required for some but not all of the material.

For Statistics:
 1) Cartoon Guide to Statistics by Larry Gonick and Woollcott Smith. It covers
the material in probability and statistics in a nice intuitive way. Used in other
programs (e.g. Harvard Kennedy School). Listed on Amazon.com for $12.

2) Statistics, 4th Edition by David Freedman, Robert Pisani, and Roger Purves.
Very nice introductory book, covering basic material: basics of means,
medians, differences in means, and basics of regression. Listed on
Amazon.com for $128

3) Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (with Economic

Applications Online, Econometrics Data Sets with Solutions Manual Web Site
Printed Access Card), by Jeffrey Wooldridge. Contains all the material
covered in Statistics on regression as well as more advanced material. Used in
many undergraduate and some masters courses. Good solutions manual. All
the datasets and analysis are in Stata. Listed on Amazon.com for $166.

4) How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff and Irving Geis (Paperback - Oct
17, 1993) Old but great book on how to think critically about statistics and
how statistics is reported in the media. Has good examples on the difference
between correlation and causality between two variables. Listed on
Amazon.com for $6.

For STATA:

1) A Gentle Introduction to Stata, Third Edition by Alan C. Acock. Covers all

the procedures described in the Stata Training Tutorial and most the material
covered in the Statistics part of MGT 403: test of means, proportions, multiple
regression, etc. Does a good job of bridging the gap between Stata and
Statistics. Listed on Amazon.com for $70.

2) Data Analysis Using Stata, Second Edition by Ulrich Kohler and Frauke
Kreuter. It covers more advanced data analysis techniques and how to program
in Stata. Listed on Amazon.com for $50.
Software The probability part of the course will use Microsoft Excel. The statistics part
of the course will use STATA.

Course Description and Objectives

Course Probabilityandstatisticsarefundamentaltomanagementeducation.Thiscourse
Description introducesyoutothesesubjectsintwoparts.Thefirstsevensessions(taughtbyArt
Swersey,andEdKaplan)introduceprobabilitymodelingwithExcelastheonlysoftware.
Thesecondeightsessions(taughtbyConstanaEstevesSorenson,andJonathan
Feinstein)coverhypothesistesting&confidenceintervals(3sessions)andregression(5
sessions),withamixtureoflectures/conceptsandhandsonexampleswithSTATA.
Assignments,readings,inclasshandouts,andlecturenoteswillbepostedonthe
coursewebsite.Thereisnotextbookforthiscourse;suggestedreferencesarelisted
below.Applicationsofthemethodstaughtinthiscoursewillsurfaceinyourcore
coursesandelectives,andwillproveusefulfordecisionmakingapplicationsinfinancial
analysis,marketing,economics,operationsandhumanresourcemanagement,policy
modeling,strategy,andotherareas.
Course Thecourseintroducesyoutoprobabilityandstatisticsinsufficientdepthforyouto
Objective applythesetoolsthroughoutyourMBAcareerandbeyond.

Course Requirements

Therewillberegularhomeworkassignments(postedonourCANVASwebsitewiththeduedatesshown
below).

Yourcoursegradewillbea50/50weightingofyourProbabilityGradeandyourStatisticsGrade.

ForeachProbabilityhomework,only1or2randomlysampledproblemswillbegraded(although
solutionsforallproblemswillbeposted).Latehomeworksubmissionswillnotbeaccepted,andagrade
ofZEROwillberecordedforlate/missedhomework.

YourProbabilityGradewillbedeterminedinthefollowingmanner:

GRADE1=20%(Homework)+80%(Exam)

GRADE2=100%(Exam)

PROBABILITYGRADE=maximum{GRADE1,GRADE2}

Notethatsubmittinghomeworkisnotrequired.However,submittinghomeworkcanonlyraiseyour
gradebeyondonebasedsolelyontheexam.Inaddition,itisempiricallytruethatthosewhosubmit
regularhomeworkassignmentsdobetterontheexams.Homeworkisimportant!

YourStatisticsGradeisdeterminedasfollows:

TwoBestHomeworkScores(outof3)eachcount10%

STATATrainingAssignmentcounts5%

FINALEXAMcounts75%

YourFINALCOURSEGRADE=50%(PROBABILITYGRADE)+50%(STATISTICSGRADE)

Please see the Yale SOM Grading Policy at http://portal.som.yale.edu/page/grading-policy

Descriptions of Assignments/Projects/Problem Sets

Exams

There will be a final probability exam on Monday, September 25th, 6:00 - 8:30 pm and a statistics
exam on Friday, October 13th, 9am - 12:30 pm.

Due Dates for Homework Assignments

All assignments will collected in clearly marked containers located in the mail room.

Assignment Due Date

Probability Problem Set 1 Tuesday, Sept. 5, 4:30 pm
Probability Problem Set 2 Thursday, Sept. 14, 4:30 pm
Probability Problem Set 3 Tuesday, Sept. 19, 4:30 pm
Statistic Problem Set 1 Monday, Oct. 2, 5:00 pm
Statistic Problem Set 2 Monday, Oct. 09, 5:00 pm
Statistic Problem Set 3 Thursday, Oct. 12, 7:00 pm

Yale SOM Policies

Please see the Yale School of Management Bulletin at
http://www.yale.edu/printer/bulletin/htmlfiles/som/rights-and-responsibilities-of-students.html for Rights
and Responsibilities of students and for information on requesting a course recording.

Laptop/Device Policy
Usage not allowed without the express permission of the instructor.

Detailed Outline of Class Sessions

Date Topic Instructor

Mon. Aug. 28 Probability Experiments Art Swersey
Tue.Aug.29 ProbabilityExperiments EdKaplan

Wed.Aug.30 ProbabilityModeling ArtSwersey

Thur.Aug.31 Probability Modeling Ed Kaplan

Fri. Sept. 01 RandomVariables ArtSwersey

Tue.Sept.05 RandomVariables EdKaplan

Wed.Sept.06 BinomialDistribution ArtSwersey

Thur. Sept. 07 BinomialDistribution EdKaplan

Mon.Sept.11 NormalDistribution ArtSwersey

Tue. Sept. 12 NormalDistribution EdKaplan

Wed.Sept.13 SumsofRandomVariablesandCovariance ArtSwersey

Thur.Sept.14 SumsofRandomVariablesandCovariance EdKaplan

 CentralLimitTheoremandSampling
Mon.Sept.18 ArtSwersey
Distributions

CentralLimitTheoremandSampling
Tue. Sept. 19 Distributions EdKaplan

Confidenceintervals,HypothesisTesting&
Wed.Sept.20 ConstanaEstevesSorenson
Estimation:I

Confidenceintervals,HypothesisTesting&
Thur.Sept.21 JonathanFeinstein
Estimation:I

Mon.Sept.25 In-class Probability exam (6:00 8:30 pm) ArtSwersey/EdKaplan

Confidenceintervals,HypothesisTesting&
Mon.Sept.25 ConstanaEstevesSorenson
Estimation:II

Confidenceintervals,HypothesisTesting&
Tue.Sept.26 JonathanFeinstein
Estimation:II

Confidenceintervals,HypothesisTesting&
Wed.Sept.27 ConstanaEstevesSorenson
Estimation:III

Confidenceintervals,HypothesisTesting&
Thur.Sept.28 JonathanFeinstein
Estimation:III

Fri.Sept.29 IntroductiontoRegression:I ConstanaEstevesSorenson

Fri.Sept.29 IntroductiontoRegression:I JonathanFeinstein

Mon.Oct.02 IntroductiontoRegression:II ConstanaEstevesSorenson

Tue.Oct.3 IntroductiontoRegression:II JonathanFeinstein

Wed.Oct.4 MultivariateRegression ConstanaEstevesSorenson

Thur.Oct.5 MultivariateRegression Jonathan Feinstein

MultivariateRegression,includingDummy
Mon.Oct.09 ConstanaEstevesSorenson
Variables

MultivariateRegression,includingDummy
Tue.Oct.10 JonathanFeinstein
Variables

Wed.Oct.11 IssuesinRegression:CausalityversusCorrelation ConstanaEstevesSorenson

 Thur.Oct.12 IssuesinRegression:CausalityversusCorrelation JonathanFeinstein

ConstanaEsteves
Fri.Oct.13 InclassStatisticExam9:00am12:30pm
Sorenson/JonathanFeinstein

The instructor reserves the right to modify and/or change the course syllabus as needed during the
course.