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Research

JAMA Psychiatry | Original Investigation

Association Between the Probability of Autism Spectrum


Disorder and Normative Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity
in Brain Structure
Christine Ecker, PhD; Derek S. Andrews, MSc; Christina M. Gudbrandsen, MSc; Andre F. Marquand, PhD; Cedric E. Ginestet, PhD; Eileen M. Daly, PhD;
Clodagh M. Murphy, PhD; Meng-Chuan Lai, PhD; Michael V. Lombardo, PhD; Amber N. V. Ruigrok, PhD; Edward T. Bullmore, PhD, FRCPsych;
John Suckling, PhD; Steven C. R. Williams, PhD; Simon Baron-Cohen, PhD; Michael C. Craig, PhD; Declan G. M. Murphy, FRCPsych;
for the Medical Research Council Autism Imaging Multicentre Study (MRC AIMS) Consortium

Editorial page 318


IMPORTANCE Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is 2 to 5 times more common in male Supplemental content
individuals than in female individuals. While the male preponderant prevalence of ASD might
partially be explained by sex differences in clinical symptoms, etiological models suggest that
the biological male phenotype carries a higher intrinsic risk for ASD than the female
phenotype. To our knowledge, this hypothesis has never been tested directly, and the
neurobiological mechanisms that modulate ASD risk in male individuals and female
individuals remain elusive.

OBJECTIVES To examine the probability of ASD as a function of normative sex-related


phenotypic diversity in brain structure and to identify the patterns of sex-related
neuroanatomical variability associated with low or high probability of ASD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study examined a cross-sectional sample of 98


right-handed, high-functioning adults with ASD and 98 matched neurotypical control
individuals aged 18 to 42 years. A multivariate probabilistic classification approach was used
to develop a predictive model of biological sex based on cortical thickness measures assessed
via magnetic resonance imaging in neurotypical controls. This normative model was
subsequently applied to individuals with ASD. The study dates were June 2005 to October
2009, and this analysis was conducted between June 2015 and July 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Sample and population ASD probability estimates as a
function of normative sex-related diversity in brain structure, as well as neuroanatomical
patterns associated with low or high ASD probability in male individuals and female
individuals.

RESULTS Among the 98 individuals with ASD, 49 were male and 49 female, with a mean (SD)
age of 26.88 (7.18) years. Among the 98 controls, 51 were male and 47 female, with a mean
(SD) age of 27.39 (6.44) years. The sample probability of ASD increased significantly with
predictive probabilities for the male neuroanatomical brain phenotype. For example,
biological female individuals with a more male-typic pattern of brain anatomy were
significantly (ie, 3 times) more likely to have ASD than biological female individuals with a
characteristically female brain phenotype (P = .72 vs .24, respectively; 12 = 20.26; P < .001; Author Affiliations: Author
difference in P values, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.68). This finding translates to an estimated affiliations are listed at the end of this
variability in population prevalence from 0.2% to 1.3%, respectively. Moreover, the patterns article.
of neuroanatomical variability carrying low or high ASD probability were sex specific (eg, in Group Information: The Medical
Research Council Autism Imaging
inferior temporal regions, where ASD has different neurobiological underpinnings in male
Multicentre Study (MRC AIMS)
individuals and female individuals). Consortium members are listed at the
end of this article.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings highlight the need for considering normative Corresponding Author: Christine
sex-related phenotypic diversity when determining an individuals risk for ASD and provide Ecker, PhD, Department of Child and
Adolescent Psychiatry,
important novel insights into the neurobiological mechanisms mediating sex differences in
Psychosomatics, and Psychotherapy,
ASD prevalence. Goethe University,
Deutschordenstrasse 50, 60528
JAMA Psychiatry. 2017;74(4):329-338. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2016.3990 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Published online February 8, 2017. (christine.ecker@kgu.de).

(Reprinted) 329

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Research Original Investigation Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure

A
utism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurode-
velopmental condition that is 2 to 5 times more common Key Points
in male individuals than in female individuals.1,2 While
Question Does the neuroanatomical male brain phenotype carry
the male preponderant prevalence of ASD might partially be ex- a higher intrinsic risk for autism spectrum disorder than the female
plained by sex differences in clinical symptoms,3,4 etiologi- neurophenotype, which could explain the male preponderant
cal models suggest that the biological male phenotype itself prevalence of autism spectrum disorder?
(ie, in general) carries a higher risk for ASD than the female
Findings In this case-control study of 98 adults with autism
phenotype.5 However, despite the growing number of stud- spectrum disorder and 98 matched neurotypical control
ies examining sex differences in the brain in ASD (eg, those by individuals, the neurobiological male phenotype was associated
Lai et al6 and by Schaer et al7), this hypothesis has never been with a higher risk for autism spectrum disorder than the female
tested directly, to our knowledge, and the neurobiological phenotype across the binary categories dictated by biological sex.
mechanisms that underpin the male preponderant preva- Meaning In addition to genetic and environmental factors,
lence of ASD remain elusive.8 normative sex-related phenotypic diversity should be considered
This study examined the probability of ASD as a function when determining an individuals risk for autism spectrum
of normative sex-related phenotypic diversity in brain struc- disorder.
ture. To do so, we initially developed a predictive model of bio-
logical sex based on multivariate differences in brain struc- history of major psychiatric disorder (eg, psychosis), head
ture in a sample of typically developing (TD) male and female injury, ASD-associated genetic disorders (eg, fragile X syn-
control individuals. This normative model was subsequently drome and tuberous sclerosis), or any other medical condi-
applied to male individuals and female individuals with ASD. tion affecting brain function (eg, epilepsy). We also excluded
Unlike recent studies examining sexual dimorphism of the individuals taking antipsychotic medication, mood stabiliz-
brain (reviewed by Ruigrok et al9), we used a probabilistic pat- ers, or benzodiazepines.
tern classification approach,10 which allowed us to accommo- All participants with ASD were diagnosed according to the
date interindividual phenotypic diversity within and across the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revi-
binary categories dictated by biological sex.11 As a result, we sion research criteria. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed
were able (1) to examine the probability of ASD along a nor- using the Autism Diagnostic InterviewRevised (ADI-R)20 or
mative phenotypic axis ranging from the characteristic fe- the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS).21 All par-
male to male brain phenotype and (2) to identify the patterns ticipants diagnosed with the ADI-R reached algorithm cut-
of sex-related neuroanatomical variability associated with low offs in the 3 domains of (1) communication (cutoff of 8), (2) re-
or high probability of ASD. ciprocal social interaction (cutoff of 10), and (3) repetitive
We based our analysis on measures of cortical thickness behaviors and stereotyped patterns of interest (cutoff of 3), al-
(CT) because these measurements have previously been shown though failure to reach the cutoff in the repetitive domain by
to be highly variable between neurotypical male individuals maximally 2 points was permitted. Because reliable infor-
and female individuals12,13 and tend to be significantly al- mants were unavailable, we were unable to obtain ADI-R di-
tered in individuals with ASD (eg, as shown by Ecker et al14 and agnostic data from 5 female individuals with ASD and con-
by Wallace et al15). Moreover, measures of CT are less sensi- firmed diagnostic status using ADOS cutoffs. In all other
tive to global confounders associated with biological sex (eg, participants, the ADOS scores were used to assess the sever-
differences in total brain volume) than other morphometric fea- ity of current symptoms. One female individual with ASD fell
tures (eg, surface area).16-19 Last, we investigated whether the short by 1 point on the ADI-R communication and repetitive
cortical underpinnings of ASD are significantly modulated by behavior domains but met ADOS criteria. All participants had
biological sex and whether ASD has common or distinct neu- a full-scale IQ greater than 70 assessed using the Wechsler Ab-
roanatomical underpinnings in male individuals and female breviated Scale of Intelligence.22 Participants gave informed
individuals. written consent in accord with ethics approval by the Na-
tional Research Ethics Committee, Suffolk, England. The study
dates were June 2005 to October 2009, and this analysis was
conducted between June 2015 and July 2016.
Methods
Participants Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data Acquisition
Ninety-eight right-handed adults with ASD (49 male and 49 Imaging took place at the IoPPN and the Addenbrookes Hos-
female; mean [SD] age, 26.88 [7.18] years) and 98 matched neu- pital, Cambridge, using a 3-T system (Signa; GE Medical Sys-
rotypical controls (51 male and 47 female; mean [SD] age, 27.39 tems). A specialized acquisition protocol using quantitative,
[6.44] years) aged 18 to 42 years were recruited locally by ad- T1-weighted mapping was used to ensure standardization of
vertisement and assessed at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psy- structural magnetic resonance imaging scans across sites,23,24
chology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), London, England, and the which resulted in high-resolution structural T1-weighted
Autism Research Centre, Cambridge, England (Table). inversion recovery images, with 1 1 1mm resolution, a
Approximately equal ratios of cases to controls and male 256 256 176pixel matrix, repetition time of 1800 milli-
individuals to female individuals were recruited within sites seconds, inversion time of 50 milliseconds, flip angle of 20,
(eTable 1 in the Supplement). Exclusion criteria included a and field of view of 25 cm.

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Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure Original Investigation Research

Cortical Reconstruction Using FreeSurfer Table. Participant Demographics and Global Brain Measuresa
A software program (FreeSurfer, version 5.3.0; http://surfer
.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu) was used to derive cortical surface Mean (SD) [Range]
models for each T1-weighted image. These well-validated and ASD TD Control
Variable (n = 98) (n = 98)
fully automated procedures have been extensively described Male Individuals (n = 100)
elsewhere.25-27 All surface models were visually inspected for
No. 49 51
errors, and scans with visible reconstruction inaccuracies were
Age, y 26.16 (7.20) [18-41] 27.22 (5.58) [18-42]
excluded from the statistical analysis (dropout <10%). We based
IQ
our analysis on measures of CT (ie, the closest distance from
Full-scale WASI 112.61 (12.27) [89-135] 114.67 (10.88) [93-137]
the gray matter (GM) or white matter boundary to the GM or
Verbal 110.51 (13.01) [83-137] 109.86 (11.03) [88-137]
cerebrospinal fluid boundary at each cerebral vertex).28 Cor-
Performance 112.00 (13.65) [85-138] 116.74 (10.90) [93-133]
tical thickness maps were smoothed with a 15-mm surface-
ADI-R
based gaussian kernel.
Social 17.57 (5.50) [10-28] NA
Communication 13.86 (4.16) [8-24] NA
Gaussian Process Classification
Gaussian process classification (GPC) 10,29
was used for the Repetitive 4.96 (2.37) [1-10] NA
behavior
probabilistic prediction of biological sex based on neuroana-
ADOS
tomical variability in CT (details are available in the eMethods
Social plus 9.43 (4.39) [1-21] NA
in the Supplement). In brief, we initially developed a norma- communication
tive model of biological sex by predicting the binary class la- Stereotypic 1.27 (1.27) [0-5]b NA
behavior
bels yi {1, +1} for female and male TD controls, respec-
Cortical thickness, 2.35 (0.10) 2.33 (0.10)
tively, using CT measures estimated at approximately 320 000 mm
vertices on the cortical surface (Gaussian Processes for Volume, L
Machine Learning Matlab toolbox; http://www.gaussianprocess Total gray matter 0.76 (0.08) 0.76 (0.05)
.org/gpml/code/matlab/doc). In addition to the overall Total intracranial 1.59 (0.21) 1.58 (0.17)
model accuracy (ie, proportion of biological male individu- Female Individuals (n = 96)
als or female individuals correctly classified as phenotypic No. 49 47
male individuals or female individuals), GPC returned a set
Age, y 27.60 (7.12) [18-48] 27.60 (7.31) [19-52]
of predictive class probabilities indicating the probability of
IQ
an individual belonging to the male or female category.
Full-scale WASI 114.88 (12.36) [84-136] 118.38 (7.32) [99-129]
Class probabilities ranged from 0 to 1 for the characteristic
Verbalc 116.60 (12.15) [76-144] 117.83 (8.81) [96-135]
female to male brain phenotype, respectively, so that a class
Performancec 110.56 (14.50) [67-138] 114.38 (8.26) [96-128]
probability of 0.5 represents a binary cutoff separating both
ADI-R
classes. Classifier performance was validated by cross-
Social 16.32 (4.24) [10-26] NA
validation and tested for statistical significance via 1000
Communication 12.43 (3.96) [7-22] NA
permutations of class labels. The normative model was sub-
sequently applied to male individuals and female individu- Repetitive 4.36 (1.98) [1-9] NA
behavior
als with ASD. ADOS
A predictive mapping approach30 was used to identify
Social plus 7.71 (5.28) [0-19] NA
(1) the spatially distributed patterns of neuroanatomical communication
variability in CT characteristics for the neurotypical female Stereotypic 0.75 (0.97) [0-3]b NA
behavior
or male brain phenotype and (2) the set of brain regions
Cortical thickness, 2.32 (0.11) 2.34 (0.10)
associated with low or high probability of ASD. Normative mm
or risk (ie, low or high probability) patterns were derived by Volume, L
quantifying the extent to which the individuals neuro- Total gray matter 0.67 (0.06) 0.68 (0.06)
anatomy interacts with the spatial representation of the Total intracranial 1.32 (0.18) 1.32 (0.17)
decision function (ie, the weight vector w) separating neuro-
Abbreviations: ADI-R, Autism Diagnostic InterviewRevised; ADOS, Autism
typical male individuals from female individuals phenotypi- Diagnostic Observation Schedule; ASD, autism spectrum disorder;
cally (ie, the product of w and CT). The high ASD probability NA, not applicable; TD, typically developing; WASI, Wechsler Abbreviated Scale
pattern included all male individuals (or female individuals) of Intelligence.
a
with a male neuroanatomical phenotype (ie, class probabil- There were no significant between-group differences in age, full-scale IQ,
mean cortical thickness, total gray matter volume, or total intracranial volume
ity >0.5). The low ASD probability pattern included all male
(2-tailed P < .05). The ADI-R values were based on 49 male individuals and 44
individuals (or female individuals) with a female neuroana- female individuals with ASD. The ADOS values were based on 49 male
tomical phenotype (ie, class probability <0.5). We also iden- individuals and 48 female individuals with ASD.
tified these patterns across all individuals along the norma- b
Statistically significant between male individuals and female individuals based
tive axis of predictive class probabilities. At each vertex, the on 2-tailed P < .05 (t95 = 2.23, P = .03).
c
resulting maps were summarized by the mean value across Verbal and performance IQ data were not available for 1 female individual with
ASD.
all individuals within examined groups.

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Research Original Investigation Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure

Estimation of ASD Probability tation testing). In total, 68.1% (32 of 47) of all biological
To examine the probability of ASD as a function of normative female individuals were correctly allocated to the category
phenotypic variability in brain structure, we converted the con- of phenotypic female individuals and 74.5% (38 of 51) of all bio-
tinuous axis of class probabilities into a set of discrete bins logical male individuals to the category of phenotypic male in-
(eg, from 0 to 1 in steps of 0.125). Within each bin, the sample dividuals (Figure 1A, lower panel). Across individuals, class
probability of ASD was determined as the ratio of individuals probabilities ranged continuously from 0 to 1 for the charac-
with ASD relative to the total number of individuals per bin. teristic female to male brain phenotype, respectively (Figure 1A,
Moreover, these data allowed us to estimate the population upper panel). Moreover, the patterns of CT variability associ-
prevalence of ASD given that an individual exhibits a male or ated with the phenotypic shift of the brain from a female to
female neuroanatomical phenotype in addition to being bio- male presentation resembled the set of brain regions where fe-
logically male or female (details are available in the eMethods male individuals significantly differed from male individuals
in the Supplement). In brief, using Bayes theorem, we com- (eFigure 1 and eFigure 2 in the Supplement). Therefore, while
bined our sample prevalence estimates with previously a perfect phenotypic differentiation between biological sexes
published population prevalence rates of ASD for biological could not be achieved, we were able to separate male indi-
male individuals and female individuals (ie, 1:42 for male viduals from female individuals in most cases based on mul-
individuals and 1:189 for female individuals31). In this way, tivariate differences in brain structure.
we were able to estimate the population prevalence of ASD
(D = 1) given a male (or female) neuroanatomical brain phe- Phenotypic Prediction of Biological Sex
notype (M) for biological male individuals (or female indi- for Individuals With ASD
viduals) (S), that is P (D = 1 | M, S). Confidence intervals When applying our normative predictive model of biological
were determined using an exact binomial test implemented sex to the independent sample of individuals with ASD, we
in a software package (R Project for Statistical Computing; found that, in female individuals with ASD, predictive class
https://www.r-project.org). probabilities for the male neuroanatomical brain phenotype
were significantly increased relative to female controls
Vertexwise Between-Group Comparison of CT (t94 = 6.13, P < .001) (Figure 1B). Overall, 39 of 49 female in-
Vertexwise statistical analysis of CT measures was con- dividuals (79.6%) with ASD were allocated to the category of
ducted using the R2014a Matlab toolbox (SurfStat; http://www phenotypic male individuals, which was significantly more
.math.mcgill.ca/keith/surfstat). For the comparison between frequent than expected based on the typical rate of misclas-
male and female controls, parameter estimates were ob- sification for female controls (79.6% [39 of 49] vs 31.9% [15 of
tained by regression of a general linear model at each vertex i, 47], respectively; 21 = 20.26, P < .001). No such differences
with biological sex and center as categorical fixed-effects were observed in male individuals with ASD, who were cor-
factors and total GM volume as a continuous covariate. To ex- rectly allocated to the male category in 81.6% (40 of 49) of all
amine whether the neuroanatomy of ASD is significantly modu- cases and also did not differ significantly from male controls
lated by biological sex, we also included a main effect of di- in predictive class probabilities (t98 = 1.35, 2-tailed P > .17).
agnostic group and biological sex and a group sex interaction Therefore, when representing individuals along a single axis
as follows: of normative sex-related phenotypic diversity in brain struc-
ture, female individuals with ASD displayed a CT pattern that
yi = 0 + 1 Group + 2 Sex + 3 (Group Sex) + 4
resembled more closely the neurotypical male rather than fe-
GMtotal + 5 Center + i,
male neurophenotype. This phenotypic shift in female indi-
where y refers to the variable that is predicted by the model viduals is likely to influence the probability of ASD.
(ie, the CT at voxel i) and i is the residual error. Effects were
estimated from the coefficients 1-3 normalized by the corre- ASD Probability as a Function of Normative Sex-Related
sponding standard error. Corrections for multiple compari- Phenotypic Variability in Brain Structure
sons were performed using a random field theorybased clus- In female individuals with ASD, the sample probability of ASD
ter analysis for nonisotropic images at a cluster threshold of increased with increasing predictive probabilities for the male
2-tailed P < .05.32 We also confirmed our findings using a non- neuroanatomical brain phenotype (eFigure 3A in the Supple-
parametric clustering approach (2-tailed P < .05) using 10 000 ment). More specifically, female individuals with class prob-
permutations of the original data.33 abilities exceeding the binary sex cutoff of 0.5 (ie, biological
female individuals falling into the category of phenotypic male
individuals) were significantly (ie, 3 times) more likely to have
a diagnosis of ASD than biological female individuals with a
Results class probability lower than 0.5 (P = .72 vs .24, respectively;
Prediction of Biological Sex Based 21 = 20.26; P < .001; difference in P values, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-
on Normative Variability in CT 0.68). Reciprocally, male individuals with class probabilities
Overall, our CT-driven probabilistic classifier predicted bio- lower than 0.5 (ie, biological male individuals falling into the
logical sex at an accuracy of 71.4% under cross-validation in category of phenotypic female individuals) were 1.2 times less
neurotypical controls, which was significantly higher than likely to have ASD than male individuals allocated to the cat-
would be expected by chance (P < .001 obtained via permu- egory of phenotypic male individuals (P = .41 vs .51, respec-

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Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure Original Investigation Research

Figure 1. Gaussian Process Classification of Biological Sex

A Gaussian process classification between male B Probabilistic predictions for male individuals and
and female control individuals female individuals with ASD
2.1 2.1 Female individuals
Male individuals
1.4 1.4
Density

Density
0.7 0.7

0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Predictive Class Probabilities Predictive Class Probabilities

60 60
Female individuals
50 50 Male individuals

40 40
Participants, No.

Participants, No.
30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Predictive Class Probabilities Predictive Class Probabilities

A, Gaussian process classification between male and female typically axis of class probabilities. B, Probabilistic predictions for male individuals and
developing (TD) control individuals based on normative (ie, neurotypical) female individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using the normative
variability in cortical thickness. The x-axis indicates predictive class model for biological sex. The density functions for male individuals and female
probabilities. Therefore, a class probability of 0.5 served as a binary cutoff individuals with ASD (upper panel) show the phenotypic shift of the brain in
separating male individuals from female individuals. The y-axis indicates the female individuals with ASD toward a more male phenotypic presentation. Of
position of each individual on the normative axis of sex-related phenotypic 49 female individuals with ASD, 39 (79.6%) fell within the category of
diversity in brain structure (lower panel). The upper panel shows the density phenotypic male individuals (lower panel).
(ie, frequency) of male individuals and female individuals along the normative

tively; 21 = 0.38; P > .53; difference in P values, 0.10; 95% CI, sible to link the probability of ASD to particular patterns of neu-
0.36 to 0.15) (eFigure 3B in the Supplement). If one com- roanatomical variability in CT, our findings suggest that these
bines these sample probabilities with previously published patterns are sex specific.
prevalence rates of ASD in the general population (eg, 1:42 for
male individuals and 1:189 for female individuals31), our study Biological Sex Significantly Modulates
shows that biological female individuals with male neuroana- the Cortical Anatomy of ASD
tomical features were 6.5 times more likely to have ASD than Last, using a conventional general linear model, we tested for
biological female individuals with a characteristically female significant CT differences between men and women with
neuroanatomy, which translates to an estimated variability in ASD and group sex interactions. We found that the corti-
population prevalence between 0.2% to 1.3%, respectively cal neuroanatomy of ASD was significantly modulated by
(eTable 2 in the Supplement). Therefore, normative sex- biological sex, particularly in the bilateral parahippocampal
related phenotypic diversity in brain structure significantly af- and entorhinal cortex (Brodmann area [BA] 28/34), the fusi-
fected the probability of ASD in addition to biological sex alone, form and lingual gyrus (BA 20/37/19), and the inferior or
with male neuroanatomical characteristics carrying a higher middle temporal lobe (BA 21/22) (Figure 3 and eTable 4 and
intrinsic risk for ASD than female characteristics. eFigure 5 in the Supplement). In these regions, the degree of
The particular patterns of neuroanatomical variability as- cortical abnormality in female individuals significantly
sociated with low or high ASD probability differed between men exceeded the degree of abnormality observed in male indi-
and women in sign and regional composition (Figure 2 and viduals compared with their respective normative popula-
eTable 3 and eFigure 4 in the Supplement). For example, CT tions (t = 3.29, cluster P = 3.5 106 for the left; t = 3.42,
variability in the left and right inferior temporal lobe differ- cluster P = 5.49 104 for the right) (Figure 3B and C and
entiated between low or high risk in women but not in men eFigure 6 in the Supplement). However, female individuals
(tmax = 3.78, cluster P = 6.29 106 for the left; tmax = 3.47, clus- with ASD were not more significantly impaired than male
ter P = 1.09 102 for the right). Therefore, while it is pos- individuals in clinical symptom severity (eTable 5 in the

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Research Original Investigation Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure

Figure 2. Neuroanatomical Patterns Associated With Low and High Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) Probability

0.0025 (w CT) +0.0025


A Predictive maps of low and high probability of ASD in female individuals

P = .24 (95% CI, .12-.39) P = .72 (95% CI, .58-.83)


Biological Female Individuals

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0


Predictive Class Probabilities

0.0025 (w CT) +0.0025


B Predictive maps of low and high probability of ASD in male individuals

P = .41 (95% CI, .21-.64) P = .51 (95% CI, .39-.63)


Biological Male Individuals

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0


Predictive Class Probabilities

Predictive maps (ie, w CT) associated with low and high probability of ASD in individuals falling into the category of phenotypic male individuals). At each
female individuals (A) and male individuals (B). Low ASD probability maps were vertex, the color scale thus indicates the product of the weight vector w and
computed across all male individuals (or female individuals) with predictive cortical thickness (CT), averaged across all individuals within the 4 probability
probabilities lower than 0.5 (ie, biological male individuals or female individuals groups. The probability of ASD was determined as the number of male
falling into the category of phenotypic female individuals). High ASD probability individuals (or female individuals) with ASD relative to the total number of
maps were computed across all male individuals (or female individuals) with individuals within predictive probability bins.
predictive probabilities larger than 0.5 (ie, biological male individuals or female

Supplement). The clusters with significant group sex tomical characteristics carrying a higher intrinsic risk for
interactions also remained significant when controlling for ASD than female characteristics. This increase in risk was
variability in verbal and performance IQ (eTable 5 and eFig- predominantly driven by female individuals with ASD, who
ure 7 in the Supplement) and thus do not seem to reflect a displayed a pattern of neuroanatomical variability in CT that
simple functional difference in these clinical or neurocogni- resembled more closely the neurotypical male rather than
tive measures (further details are available in eFigure 8 and female neurophenotype overall. Moreover, our study links
the eAppendix in the Supplement). low and high risk (ie, probability) of ASD to particular pat-
terns of sex-related neuroanatomical variability, thus pro-
viding important novel insights into the neurobiological
mechanisms underpinning the male preponderant preva-
Discussion lence of ASD.
Our study demonstrates that normative sex-related pheno- An important feature of GPC is that it is possible to sum-
typic diversity in brain structure affects the prevalence of marize the highly complex and multivariate pattern of
ASD in addition to biological sex alone, with male neuroana- normative sex-related phenotypic diversity in brain struc-

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Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure Original Investigation Research

Figure 3. Significant Group Sex Interactions

A Clusters with significant group x sex interactions in CT

4 1.7 +1.7 +4
Left Right t(group sex)

Inferior

Lateral

Medial

B Clusters with significantly increased CT in male individuals with ASD

Left Right

Inferior

Lateral

A, Clusters with significant


group sex interactions in cortical
thickness (CT) as examined by a
conventional general linear
modeltype approach. In these
regions, the difference in CT between
Medial female individuals with autism
spectrum disorder (ASD) and female
control individuals significantly
exceeded the difference between
male individuals with ASD and male
controls (statistical details are
C Clusters with significantly reduced CT in female individuals with ASD available in eTable 4 in the
Supplement). The group sex
Left Right interactions were driven by reduced
CT in female individuals with ASD
relative to female controls and
Inferior increased CT in male individuals with
ASD relative to male controls (eFigure
Lateral 6 in the Supplement). B, Clusters with
significantly increased CT in male
individuals with ASD relative to male
controls (random field theorybased,
cluster-corrected P < .05). C, Clusters
with significantly reduced CT in
female individuals with ASD relative
to female controls (random field
theorybased, cluster-corrected
Medial P < .05). eFigure 5 in the Supplement
shows results of the
permutation-based cluster
thresholding of the same contrasts.
TD indicates typically developing.

ture to a single measure (ie, class probability) indicative of the and by Escorial et al34) examining sexual dimorphism of the
individuals neurophenotypic sex. This ability sets our ap- brain based on univariate group differences between male in-
proach apart from existing studies (eg, those by Ruigrok et al9 dividuals and female individuals, which precludes the inves-

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Research Original Investigation Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure

tigation of interindividual phenotypic diversity across the Limitations


binary categories dictated by biological sex. This study is of While our approach holds promise for future investigations into
importance because it has recently been suggested that, on a the neurobiological mechanisms that underpin risk and resil-
phenotypic scale, the brain should be considered a mosaic ience for conditions with a sex difference in prevalence, this
of regions, each of relative maleness or femaleness, resulting study has several limitations. First, our study was designed to
in significant interindividual variability both within and be- establish the statistical association between normative sex
tween sexes. 11,35 Therefore, the multivariate patterns related phenotypic diversity and ASD probability. Therefore,
derived from the classification between neurotypical male future studies are needed to examine the causal mechanisms
and female controls may be interpreted as being representa- for this association (eg, as shown by Lai et al8 and Baron-
tive of such a mosaic, which drives the brain toward a Cohen et al39). Second, because of reasons outlined above, we
female or male phenotypic end point overall (see also the based our study on measures of CT in a sample of high-
study by Chekroud et al36). functioning adults with ASD. While this scope is sufficient to
Furthermore, we demonstrated that the normative pat- provide proof of concept, it will be necessary in the future to
tern of sex-related neuroanatomical variability is predictive of extend our approach to other neurobiological features that have
ASD probability, particularly in female individuals, and that previously been linked to ASD (eg, cortical surface area and re-
low and high ASD probability can be linked to regional differ- gional volumes14) and to replicate our findings in other sub-
ences in CT. These patterns not only included many of the brain groups on the autism spectrum (eg, different age groups and
regions where women typically differ from men in CT12,13 but individuals with learning disabilities). Third, in future re-
also highlighted brain areas that have previously been linked search, it will be crucial to further explore the functional rel-
to the core behavioral deficits characteristic of ASD (re- evance of our findings and to examine how normative sex-
viewed by Amaral et al37 and by Ecker et al38). Notably, some related phenotypic diversity in brain structure relates to sex
of these brain regions (eg, inferior temporal lobes) carried low differences in general cognitive or behavioral profiles (eg, as
or high probability of ASD in women but not in men. Herein, shown by Miller and Halpern40 and by Hyde41) and to differ-
we found that the degree of cortical abnormality in female ent clinical ASD phenotypes.3,42-44
individuals with ASD significantly exceeded the degree of
abnormality in male individuals compared with their
respective normative population. Yet, female individuals
with ASD were not more severely impaired than male indi-
Conclusions
viduals on the level of autistic symptoms. Therefore, our Our findings suggest that the neurobiological male pheno-
finding agrees with previous reports suggesting that (1) bio- type carries a higher intrinsic risk for ASD than the female phe-
logical sex significantly modulates the neurobiological basis notype across the binary categories dictated by biological sex.
of ASD (eg, the studies by Lai et al6 and by Schaer et al7) and In addition to genetic and environmental factors, normative
(2) female individuals may have a higher threshold (ie, mini- sex-related phenotypic diversity should thus be taken into ac-
mum liability sufficient to cause ASD) for reaching affection count when determining an individuals probability of ASD.
status than male individuals (reviewed by Werling and Therefore, our approach to modeling normative sex-related
Geschwind5) and may need to deviate more neurobiologi- phenotypic diversity may be more widely used in the future
cally from their normative population to demonstrate a to elucidate the neurobiological mechanisms that underpin risk
clinical ASD phenotype. and resilience for mental health disorders.

ARTICLE INFORMATION College London, London, England (Ginestet); Author Contributions: Dr Ecker had full access to
Accepted for Publication: November 30, 2016. Behavioural Genetics Clinic, Adult Autism Service, all the data in the study and takes responsibility for
Behavioural and Developmental Psychiatry Clinical the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the
Published Online: February 8, 2017. Academic Group, South London and Maudsley data analysis. Drs Craig and D. G. M. Murphy
doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2016.3990 Foundation National Health Service Trust, London, contributed equally to this article.
Author Affiliations: Department of Child and England (C. M. Murphy, D. G. M. Murphy); Autism Study concept and design: Ecker, Andrews,
Adolescent Psychiatry, Psychosomatics, and Research Centre, Department of Psychiatry, Marquand, C. M. Murphy, Lai, Bullmore, Williams,
Psychotherapy, Goethe University, Frankfurt am University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England (Lai, Baron-Cohen, Craig, D. G. M. Murphy.
Main, Germany (Ecker); Department of Forensic Lombardo, Ruigrok, Baron-Cohen); Child and Youth Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data:
and Neurodevelopmental Sciences, Sackler Mental Health Collaborative at the Centre for Ecker, Andrews, Gudbrandsen, Marquand,
Institute for Translational Neurodevelopmental Addiction and Mental Health, The Hospital for Sick Ginestet, Daly, C. M. Murphy, Lai, Lombardo,
Sciences, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Children, Department of Psychiatry, University of Ruigrok, Suckling, Williams, Craig, D. G. M. Murphy.
Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (Lai); Drafting of the manuscript: Ecker, Andrews,
England (Ecker, Andrews, Gudbrandsen, Daly, Department of Psychiatry, National Taiwan Ginestet, Daly, Lai, Lombardo, Suckling, Williams,
C. M. Murphy, Craig, D. G. M. Murphy); Donders University Hospital and College of Medicine, Taipei Craig, D. G. M. Murphy.
Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, (Lai); Department of Psychology and Center for Critical revision of the manuscript for important
Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands Applied Neuroscience, University of Cyprus, Nicosia intellectual content: Ecker, Gudbrandsen,
(Marquand); Centre for Neuroimaging Sciences, (Lombardo); Brain Mapping Unit, Department of Marquand, Ginestet, C. M. Murphy, Lai, Ruigrok,
Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Bullmore, Williams, Baron-Cohen, Craig, D. G. M.
Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, England (Bullmore, Suckling); National Autism Unit, Murphy.
England (Marquand, Williams); Department of Bethlem Royal Hospital, South London and
Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Institute of Maudsley Foundation National Health Service Trust,
Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, Kings London, England (Craig).

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Association of Autism Spectrum Disorder With Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure Original Investigation Research

Statistical analysis: Ecker, Andrews, Marquand, N. V. Ruigrok, PhD (University of Cambridge), Susan autism: the relationship between surface area,
Ginestet, Daly, Lai, Suckling, D. G. M. Murphy. A. Sadek, DClinPsy (University of Cambridge), cortical thickness, and autistic symptoms. JAMA
Obtained funding: Bullmore, Williams, Debbie Spain, MSc (IoPPN), Rose Stewart, MSc Psychiatry. 2013;70(1):59-70.
Baron-Cohen, D. G. M. Murphy. (University of Oxford), John Suckling, PhD 15. Wallace GL, Dankner N, Kenworthy L, Giedd JN,
Administrative, technical, or material support: (University of Cambridge), Sally J. Wheelwright, Martin A. Age-related temporal and parietal cortical
Gudbrandsen, C. M. Murphy, Lombardo, Bullmore, MSc (University of Cambridge), Steven C. R. thinning in autism spectrum disorders. Brain.
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Study supervision: Williams, Baron-Cohen, Craig, (IoPPN).
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Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Bullmore Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research
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GlaxoSmithKline and reported being a stockholder Theresa Sackler Foundation. The MRC AIMS Sexual dimorphism of brain developmental
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