3.

2: Confidence Intervals for a Proportion

2 < <2
(1 )

(1 ) (1 )
2 < < 2

(1 ) (1 )
2 < < + 2

(1 ) (1 )
+ 2 > > 2

(1 ) (1 )
2 < < + 2

Issue: Want by itself but is in the standard error

on each side of the inequality so use instead
95% Confidence Interval:

(1 ) (1 )
2 < < + 2

 (1)
Can also be written as 2

Confidence Intervals
Confidence Interval: Statistic Multiplier Standard Error
Confidence Interval: Statistic Margin of Error
o Margin of Error = _______________________
Multiplier is based on the confidence level
o Higher confidence level => bigger multiplier
e.g. 95% confidence level => multiplier of 2
e.g. 90% confidence level => multiplier of 1.645
Theory-based approach is valid for at least 10 successes and 10
failures
Standard Error
Higher standard error => more variability => wider interval
Larger sample size => smaller standard error => less
variability => narrower interval
Interpretations and Conclusions
Interpretation: With 95% confidence, the long run proportion is
between the values in the interval
Conclusion:
If null hypothesis value is in the interval => plausible value =>
fail to reject
In null hypothesis value is not in the interval => not plausible
value => reject
Question: If a 95% confidence contains the hypothesized value, is
the p-value greater than 0.05 or less than 0.05?

Example: A survey of 1,000 American adults revealed that 79%

dont want their kids under the age of 14 playing football. Is 75% a
plausible value?
H0 : = 0.75
HA : 0.75

(1 ) 0.79(1 0.79)
Multiplier = 0.79 2
1000

= 0.79 2(0.013)
= 0.79 0.026
= (0.764, 0.816)

Interpretation: With 95% confidence, the long run

proportion of parents who dont want their kids under
14 playing football is between 0.764 and 0.816 (i.e.
between 76.4% and 81.6%)
Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis because 75% is
not in the interval and conclude the long run proportion
of parents who dont want their kids under 14 playing
football is not 75%.