Issue 333

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 CONTENTS FROM THE

p2 The Big Singapore Market Upgrade Hype

EDITOR
Welcome to the 333rd edition of the
Singapore Property Weekly.
or Reality? (Part 3)
Hope you like it!
p9 Resale Property Transactions
Mr. Propwise
(October 2 October 6)

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333

The Big Singapore Market Upgrade Hype or

Reality? (Part 3)
By Ku Swee Yong and Shannon Aw (guest
contributors)

This is part three of a three-part article (you

can read part one here and part two here).

Will the increase in single-person

households will drive up the demand for
housing?

The previously mentioned report stated that

the growing number of single person
households which comprised one in eight
Singapore resident households in 2010
has been a key contributor to housing
demand. Given rising singlehood rates, we
forecast that by 2030, one in five households Infographic: Summary of the key points
will be occupied by just one person. (Image credit: HugProperty)

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333
The authors further estimated that the
number of single-person households will
increase from 139,800 (which makes up 12%
of total households) in 2010, to 218,500 in
2020 (16% of total households) and 297,300
in 2030 (19% of total households). The rate of
increase in resident households will outpace
the slow population growth, becoming a key
demand driver for small, shoebox-sized
homes in Singapore.
Our questions
What are the reasons behind the increase in
single-person households? What is the
proportion of single-person households that
are young, economically active singles who
chose to live alone, versus singles who may
be widowed or divorced?
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Fact #1 An increase in the number of
single-person households may not
translate into significant demand for
private properties
The increased number of single-person
households, about 78,800 over the 10-year
period of 2020 to 2030, may not translate into
significant demand for private properties.
Firstly, a big contributor to the growing
number of single-person households in the
next 20 years will be widowed households.
Our large ageing population of baby boomers
will start to pass on in greater numbers in
about 1015 years time. The retired and
surviving widower (for simplicity, let us
assume that the word widower and he
refer to both genders) would be classified
under the household survey as an additional,
single-person household.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333

He would probably already have a home so Thirdly, a resident household is defined by

there will be no net increase in housing SingStat and United Nations Statistics
demand. On the contrary, if he wishes to cash Division as: a household headed by a
out of his home and move in with his children Singapore citizen or permanent resident. A
and grandchildren, there will be a net supply household refers to a group of two or more
of one additional home on the market. persons living together in the same house
and sharing common food or other
Secondly, looking at the young, say below 40,
arrangements for essential living. It also
who chose singlehood, might the authors
includes a person living alone or a person
have considered that housing affordability
living with others but having his own food
may be halved for these single-person
arrangements. Although persons may be
households? As compared to a couple buying
living in the same house, they may not be
a home, a single person will not have as
members of the same household. This
much savings in cash and CPF for the down
simply means that four persons living under
payment, and will be more limited in his ability
one roof could be comprised of three
to service loans. Therefore, if there is higher
households: the father and mother as a
demand from people who chose singlehood,
household, and two adult working children
that demand would be skewed to the public
who have their own food arrangements.
housing segment rather than private homes.

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333
The facts mentioned are not laid out to claim
that there will not be additional demand for
new private homes from single-person
households. We are simply saying that within
the reports estimated increase of 78,800
single-person households between 2020 and
2030, some of the additional single-person
households might be selling their homes (i.e.
net negative demand), some may purchase
private residences with their limited budget
and most of them may go for HDB flats.
On a related note to the single-person owner-
occupiers, the report further argues that the
increase in the minimum salaries of
Employment Pass (EP) holders will lead to
higher demand for housing and there will be
higher IRR (Internal Rate or Return) for
residential investments. We think that the
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increase in the minimum wage of EP holders
from $3,300 to $3,600 in January 2017 may
improve the rental demand but not the buying
of private properties. An EP holder will have
to be earning at least $8,000 a month to be
able to purchase a private housing unit in
Singapore provided he has sufficient savings
to make the down payment and the stamp
duties. A $700,000 shoebox unit will require
most EP holders to fork out about $400,000
for down payment, normal stamp duty and
Additional Buyer Stamp Duty. In todays
market, a $700,000 shoebox private
residence in the outskirts of Singapore rents
for about $1,800 per month. We believe that
EP holders will do their sums and will opt to
rent. The increase in EP holders minimum
wage will NOT affect the private housing
market.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333

Other points we would like to highlight as a 5% price appreciation per year from
2017 to 2030.
Claim: Household balance sheets are strong
We ask: Have the authors assumed that
We say: (a) The official data on household
rental income is continuous over the 14-year
debt do not capture loans for cars and
period, without any vacancy periods between
properties held under companies; (b)
tenants? And we wonder if the economy will
Mortgage rates have only one direction to go
be recession-free throughout the entire
when the world exits from the long interest
period. If the economy were blazing hot,
rates slumber.
would the costs of property ownership rise
Claim: Unsold inventory is at an all-time low significantly?
We say: Official data on unsold inventory only Conclusion
reflects unsold apartments in projects which
We are not convinced by the justifications
are still licensed by the Controller of Housing.
behind the forecast that the average private
Unsold stock in residential projects which
residential prices in Singapore will rise to
have received the Certificate of Statutory
$2,000 psf in 2030.
Completion are dropped from the data set.
The current reality is that the private
Claim: Exhibits 49 and 55 of the report
residential market continues to face tougher
showed a constant 2% annual rental yield
and tougher challenges such as ageing
where rentals increase 5% per year as well

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333
population, slower jobs growth and low birth
rate. We are likely to see property prices
dragging along on a protracted downturn for
several more years before recovering.
We observe several dichotomies in the
property market and these contradicting data-
sets indicate that the recent exuberance and
hype around new property launches, land
sales and en bloc activities are not anchored
on firm foundations.
Some of the opposing data-sets in the market
are (as of writing this article in mid-July 2017):
1. GDP growth is being revised upwards after
a strong 1Q17 but employment shrank by
6,800 positions in 1Q17. We ask: which is
more important to housing employment or
GDP?
2. Exuberance in new property launches
(mainly sales of 1 and 2 bedrooms which
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imply investors) but rentals keep dropping.
We ask: if investors cannot find tenants, how
long can this situation last?
3. Researchers and analysts are calling for a
market bottom now and upturn in 2017-2018,
but yet these same companies valuations
departments and en bloc sales departments
are giving low valuation estimates to sellers.
We ask: are the property consultants
internally undecided about the market
direction?
4. New sales are moving up but bank
valuations of resale properties are not
improving. We ask no questions about this.
5. Real estate transaction volumes increase
in the past few months but both the price
index and rental index drop. This happens a
lot in the stock markets, such as on Black
Monday, where the volume of transactions
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333
is very high but prices crashed. We ask:
should we celebrate Black Monday?
6. The sharing economy will trend up over the
next decade and home sharing may temper
the demand for home ownership. We ask:
should we promote new technologies for
home sharing on one hand while investing in
physical real estate on another?
Our purpose of writing this article is to
highlight to our readers that while positive
headlines on Singapore real estate is always
welcomed, we often need to dive deeper into
the figures to understand the full picture.
Viewpoints will differ, and the wide range of
opinions add to the color and debate to make
the Singapore real estate market a lively one.
If the devil is in the details, then we ought to
get to know the devil very well.
As market analysts and commentators, we
seek to help readers understand find more
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meaning and relevance about the real estate.
This article is co-written by Ku Swee Yong,
Co-founder of HugProperty with Shannon Aw
Qian Tong, undergraduate from the
Department of Real Estate, National
University of Singapore. HugProperty is a
web-based property platform, which provides
potential buyers and sellers with expert
knowledge and insights, that are necessary to
make informed decisions. Originally started
by three co-founders, Mr. Winston Lam, Dr.
Andy Teoh and Mr. Jeffery Sung in July 2016,
the HugProperty team now consists of
industry experts such as veteran property
agent and property analyst, Mr. Ku Swee
Yong and renowned mortgage expert, Ms.
Ally Yang. Through data analysis conducted
by the experts, HugProperty can help make
property buying and selling, an intelligent and
hassle-free experience.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Oct 2 Oct 6

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 883 1,680,000 1,903 99 9 ESPADA 377 923,800 2,452 FH
1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 861 1,499,888 1,742 99 9 RIVERGATE 1,044 2,250,000 2,155 FH
1 ONE SHENTON 1,098 1,710,000 1,557 99 9 LEONIE PARC VIEW 2,013 4,210,000 2,092 FH
1 PEOPLE'S PARK COMPLEX 409 460,000 1,125 99 9 1919 861 1,780,000 2,067 FH
2 SKYSUITES@ANSON 667 1,453,770 2,178 99 9 8 RODYK 721 1,420,000 1,969 FH
2 SPOTTISWOODE RESIDENCES 947 1,893,000 1,998 FH 9 SAM KIANG MANSIONS 1,281 2,050,000 1,600 FH
2 SKYSUITES@ANSON 667 1,330,440 1,994 99 9 MOUNT SOPHIA SUITES 560 880,000 1,572 FH
2 SKYSUITES@ANSON 700 1,393,740 1,992 99 9 OLEANAS RESIDENCE 1,668 2,370,000 1,421 FH
3 THE CREST 1,572 2,844,000 1,810 99 9 SUITES AT ORCHARD 2,099 1,890,000 900 99
3 THE CREST 1,216 2,172,000 1,786 99 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,981 5,864,800 2,961 FH
3 ALEXIS 398 700,000 1,758 FH 10 ONE BALMORAL 969 2,239,000 2,311 FH
3 THE REGENCY AT TIONG BAHRU 1,270 2,088,000 1,644 FH 10 LEEDON RESIDENCE 4,704 9,600,000 2,041 FH
3 RIVER PLACE 786 1,070,000 1,362 99 10 D'LEEDON 635 1,140,000 1,795 99
3 QUEENS 1,195 1,415,000 1,184 99 10 RV RESIDENCES 1,216 2,170,000 1,784 999
3 TANGLIN VIEW 1,378 1,445,000 1,049 99 10 BELMOND GREEN 1,055 1,880,000 1,782 FH
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,625 2,961,420 1,822 99 10 PARVIS 2,788 4,830,000 1,733 FH
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,528 2,545,620 1,665 99 10 VALLEY PARK 1,808 2,980,000 1,648 999
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,561 2,500,190 1,602 99 10 THE LEVELZ 980 1,540,000 1,572 FH
4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 1,636 2,530,000 1,546 99 10 DUKES RESIDENCE 1,615 2,480,000 1,536 FH
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,119 1,700,000 1,519 99 10 D' DALVEY 1,206 1,800,000 1,493 FH
4 THE INTERLACE 807 1,080,000 1,338 99 10 THE LEVELZ 1,335 1,720,000 1,289 FH
5 THE PARC CONDOMINIUM 980 1,250,000 1,276 FH 10 TANGLIN REGENCY 850 1,060,000 1,247 99
5 FABER HILLS 1,668 1,399,988 839 FH 10 THE EQUATORIAL 3,455 4,200,000 1,216 FH
7 CONCOURSE SKYLINE 1,152 1,790,000 1,554 99 10 QUINTERRA 1,679 1,900,000 1,132 99
8 N.A. 1,163 1,168,000 1,005 FH 10 LUTHERAN TOWERS 1,916 1,675,000 874 103

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
11 PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM 1,442 2,816,000 1,952 FH 15 MERIDIAN 38 1,238 1,628,000 1,315 FH
11 NEWTON ONE 1,808 3,520,000 1,947 FH 15 DUNMAN PLACE 1,292 1,620,000 1,254 FH
11 TRILIGHT 1,087 2,068,000 1,902 FH 15 THE CHERRYWOOD 667 833,888 1,250 FH
11 THE LINCOLN RESIDENCES 1,776 2,670,000 1,503 FH 15 MELROSE VILLE 592 720,000 1,216 FH
11 AMANINDA 678 868,000 1,280 FH 15 WATER PLACE 1,216 1,410,000 1,159 99
11 MINBU COURT 1,636 1,740,000 1,063 FH 15 OLA RESIDENCES 2,110 2,330,000 1,104 FH
11 HILLCREST ARCADIA 1,711 1,350,000 789 99 15 SANCTUARY GREEN 1,356 1,451,000 1,070 99
12 AIRSTREAM 334 510,000 1,528 FH 15 SILAHIS APARTMENTS 1,302 1,265,000 971 FH
12 SKYSUITES17 1,066 1,500,000 1,408 FH 15 LEGENDA AT JOO CHIAT 1,216 1,150,000 945 99
12 THE MEZZO 840 1,135,000 1,352 FH 15 EAST GROVE 990 900,000 909 FH
12 THE ARTE 1,873 2,350,000 1,255 FH 16 BEDOK RESIDENCES 527 820,000 1,555 99
12 ONE ST MICHAEL'S 1,249 1,550,000 1,241 FH 16 UBER 388 1,453 1,765,000 1,215 FH
12 VETRO 614 685,000 1,116 999 16 CHANGI COURT 969 950,000 981 FH
13 ONE LEICESTER 958 1,180,000 1,232 FH 16 THE BAYSHORE 1,259 1,095,330 870 99
14 GUILLEMARD EDGE 549 690,000 1,257 FH 16 EAST MEADOWS 1,238 1,050,000 848 99
14 VACANZA @ EAST 840 968,888 1,154 FH 16 BEDOK COURT 2,271 1,400,000 616 99
14 EUNOS GREEN 1,970 1,850,000 939 FH 17 HEDGES PARK CONDOMINIUM 764 725,000 949 99
14 ASTON MANSIONS 1,012 850,000 840 99 17 ESTELLA GARDENS 936 760,000 812 FH
14 ASTON MANSIONS 1,012 840,000 830 99 17 DAHLIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,787 1,138,888 637 FH
14 SIMS GREEN 1,238 968,000 782 99 18 DOUBLE BAY RESIDENCES 1,367 1,480,000 1,083 99
14 SIMS GREEN 1,238 950,000 767 99 18 DOUBLE BAY RESIDENCES 936 980,000 1,046 99
14 WING FONG COURT 1,195 840,000 703 FH 18 THE PALETTE 1,066 1,030,000 967 99
15 THE SEA VIEW 1,216 2,120,000 1,743 FH 18 RIPPLE BAY 786 750,000 954 99
15 GRAND DUCHESS AT ST PATRICK'S 1,044 1,515,000 1,451 FH 18 THE TROPICA 1,227 1,015,000 827 99
15 PARC ELEGANCE 398 565,000 1,419 FH 18 CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM 1,259 970,000 770 99
15 VIBES @ EAST COAST 452 623,000 1,378 FH 19 RIVERSAILS 506 640,000 1,265 99
15 LA VIDA @ 130 441 600,000 1,360 FH 19 RIVERSAILS 506 610,000 1,206 99

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 333

Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
19 KOVAN MELODY 1,292 1,438,000 1,113 99
19 SUNGLADE 1,173 1,250,000 1,065 99
19 RIVERSAILS 2,562 1,964,027 767 99
19 REGENTVILLE 1,076 780,000 725 99
19 RIVERVALE CREST 1,206 803,000 666 99
20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,948 1,580,000 811 99
22 PARC OASIS 1,227 1,000,000 815 99
23 THE HILLIER 581 765,000 1,316 99
23 TREE HOUSE 1,152 1,173,000 1,018 99
23 THE DAIRY FARM 2,207 2,200,000 997 FH
23 HILLBROOKS 1,173 1,100,000 938 FH
23 MI CASA 1,119 910,000 813 99
23 THE MADEIRA 1,249 960,000 769 99
23 THE JADE 2,433 1,800,000 740 99
23 PARKVIEW APARTMENTS 936 660,000 705 99
23 PALM GARDENS 1,206 785,000 651 99
23 NORTHVALE 2,702 1,470,000 544 99
25 THE WOODGROVE 1,023 702,000 686 99
27 SKIES MILTONIA 743 790,000 1,064 99
28 H2O RESIDENCES 753 810,000 1,075 99

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property

transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.
Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser
signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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