Wait for Annual Report for borrowing details, interest rates, operating leases

Fine tune working capital

KAREX BHD
As of 23/09/2017 @ MYR 1.490 for FY 2017-06-30 QTR 2017-06-30

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow Statement

L. C. Chong Page 2 of 18 http://lcchong.wordpress.com

L. C. Chong Page 3 of 18 http://lcchong.wordpress.com
Financial Modelling

Historical Projected
MYR in '000s except per share data 2014-06-30 2015-06-30 2016-06-30 2017-06-30 2018-06-30 2019-06-30 2020-06-30 2021-06-30

Analysis Date: 23-Sep-17 Excess Cash % 5%

Scenarios

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow Statement

CapEx and Depreciation Schedule

Intangible Assets and Amortisation Schedule

Debt Schedule

Interest Schedule

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Terminal FCF Growth Rate vs. Discount Rate and Implied Share Price
2022-06-30
Year Buildings Plant and mMotor vehicles
FY2016 37,802 41,287 1,369
FY2015 14,800 7,440 1,491
FY2014 30,328 84,594 5,149
Total 82,930 133,321 8,009
31.9% 51.3% 3.1%

Assets Useful Life Avg.

Buildings 20 - 50 years 35 31.9%
Plant and machinery 10 - 20 years 15 51.3%
Motor vehicles 5 - 10 years 7.5 3.1%
Electrical installation, renovation, equ 4 - 10 years 7 13.6%
Weighted Average 20
Electrical installation, renovation, eq Total (Excl. Contruction in progress)
14,171 94,629
3,131 26,862
18,131 138,202
35,433 259,693
13.6%
YTD Performance By Segment

Financial Year FY14 FY15

Segment Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Condoms 75,775 145,396 205,327 65,664 135,364 201,514 274,192
Catheters 2,849 5,451 6,419 2,994 6,441 9,721 13,347
Probe covers, l 3,551 5,944 8,181 1,475 5,326 7,291 9,902
Total 82,175 156,791 219,927 70,133 147,131 218,526 297,441
YoY
Condoms 78.6% 38.6% 33.5%
Catheters 126.1% 78.3% 107.9%
Probe covers, lubricating jelly and others 50.0% 22.7% 21.0%

Quarterly Results By Segment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Decay/Boost Rate
Financial Year FY15
Revenue Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Condoms 69,621 59,931 65,664 69,700 66,150 72,678
Catheters 2,602 968 2,994 3,447 3,280 3,626
Probe covers, lubricating jel 2,393 2,237 1,475 3,851 1,965 2,611
QoQ
Condoms -5.0% 21.3%
Catheters 26.1% 274.6%
Probe covers, lubricating jelly and others -17.9% 16.7%
 FY16 FY17 FY18
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17
69,950 159,355 241,203 316,037 70,858 159,318 244,473 328,467 81,742
3,957 7,438 11,343 15,200 6,959 15,512 21,277 27,255 7,133
2,186 5,879 8,349 11,984 2,220 2,773 4,069 5,730 1,722
76,093 172,672 260,895 343,221 80,037 177,603 269,819 361,452 90,597

6.5% 17.7% 19.7% 15.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 3.9% 15.4%

32.2% 15.5% 16.7% 13.9% 75.9% 108.6% 87.6% 79.3% 2.5%
48.2% 10.4% 14.5% 21.0% 1.6% -52.8% -51.3% -52.2% -22.4%

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

FY16 FY17
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17
69,950 89,405 81,848 74,834 70,858 88,460 85,155 83,994 81,742
3,957 3,481 3,905 3,857 6,959 8,553 5,765 5,978 7,133
2,186 3,693 2,470 3,635 2,220 553 1,296 1,661 1,722

6.5% 28.3% 23.7% 3.0% 1.3% -1.1% 4.0% 12.2% 15.4%

32.2% 1.0% 19.1% 6.4% 75.9% 145.7% 47.6% 55.0% 2.5%
48.2% -4.1% 25.7% 39.2% 1.6% -85.0% -47.5% -54.3% -22.4%
 FY18 FY19 FY20
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
170,056 254,504 351,889 94,974 184,136 279,871 371,740 104,806 207,201 303,784
14,647 22,540 30,814 8,654 17,689 27,104 36,900 10,176 20,732 31,669
3,380 4,975 6,505 1,466 2,869 4,207 5,482 1,211 2,357 3,440
188,083 282,019 389,208 105,095 204,694 311,183 414,122 116,193 230,290 338,892

6.7% 4.1% 7.1% 16.2% 8.3% 10.0% 5.6% 10.4% 12.5% 8.5%
-5.6% 5.9% 13.1% 21.3% 20.8% 20.2% 19.7% 17.6% 17.2% 16.8%
21.9% 22.3% 13.5% -14.9% -15.1% -15.4% -15.7% -17.4% -17.8% -18.2%

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FY19 FY20
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
88,314 84,448 97,385 94,974 89,163 95,735 91,868 104,806 102,394 96,583
7,513 7,894 8,274 8,654 9,035 9,415 9,796 10,176 10,556 10,937
1,658 1,594 1,530 1,466 1,402 1,338 1,275 1,211 1,147 1,083

-0.2% -0.8% 15.9% 16.2% 1.0% 13.4% -5.7% 10.4% 14.8% 0.9%
-12.2% 36.9% 38.4% 21.3% 20.2% 19.3% 18.4% 17.6% 16.8% 16.2%
199.9% 23.0% -7.9% -14.9% -15.4% -16.0% -16.7% -17.4% -18.2% -19.1%
Y20 FY21 FY22
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22
406,940 99,289 211,516 321,331 425,335 110,577 217,287 336,934 454,170
42,985 11,697 23,775 36,233 49,071 13,219 26,818 40,797 55,157
4,459 955 1,846 2,672 3,435 699 1,334 1,905 2,412
454,384 111,941 237,136 360,237 477,842 124,494 245,438 379,636 511,739

9.5% -5.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.5% 11.4% 2.7% 4.9% 6.8%

16.5% 15.0% 14.7% 14.4% 14.2% 13.0% 12.8% 12.6% 12.4%
-18.7% -21.1% -21.7% -22.3% -22.9% -26.8% -27.7% -28.7% -29.8%

27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

0.0%
Y20 FY21 FY22
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22
103,156 99,289 112,227 109,815 104,004 110,577 106,710 119,648 117,236
11,317 11,697 12,078 12,458 12,838 13,219 13,599 13,979 14,360
1,019 955 891 827 763 699 635 571 507

12.3% -5.3% 9.6% 13.7% 0.8% 11.4% -4.9% 9.0% 12.7%

15.5% 15.0% 14.4% 13.9% 13.4% 13.0% 12.6% 12.2% 11.9%
-20.1% -21.1% -22.3% -23.6% -25.1% -26.8% -28.7% -30.9% -33.5%
Key Ratios

Key Ratios Historical Projected

MYR in '000s except per share data 2014-06-30 2015-06-30 2016-06-30 2017-06-30 2018-06-30 2019-06-30 2020-06-30 2021-06-30

ROIC #VALUE! 22.8% 27.0% 19.1% 8.2% 12.3% 11.6% 12.6% 13.0%
NOPAT 34,776 57,974 62,334 27,603 37,417 38,177 45,835 51,668
EBIT 41,770 71,127 74,465 35,502 45,879 46,811 56,201 63,354
Tax Rate 16.7% 18.5% 16.3% 22.2% 18.4% 18.4% 18.4% 18.4%
Invested Capital #VALUE! 152,608 214,347 326,699 335,780 304,524 329,895 363,545 398,032
Total Assets 289,864 498,373 558,080 593,029 678,203 712,036 753,416 794,562
Total Current Liabilities 51,664 51,241 54,541 75,046 134,661 144,070 154,263 156,668
Intangible Assets 0 25,067 32,571 97,119 96,886 96,654 96,423 96,193
Excess Cash 85,592 207,718 144,269 85,084 142,132 141,417 139,185 143,669
Deposits, Bank & Cash Balances 85,592 207,718 144,269 85,084 142,132 141,417 139,185 143,669
Total Current Liabilities 51,664 51,241 54,541 75,046 134,661 144,070 154,263 156,668
Total Current Assets 203,549 343,885 344,328 293,887 355,042 362,004 372,232 379,700
CROIC 10.1% -0.4% 0.0% -1.3% 23.5% 3.8% 3.7% 5.2%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow #VALUE! 15,389 (899) (114) (4,224) 71,503 12,463 13,630 20,769
Invested Capital #VALUE! 152,608 214,347 326,699 335,780 304,524 329,895 363,545 398,032
WACC 9.3% 9.2% 9.3% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%
EBITA Margin #VALUE! 19.0% 23.9% 21.7% 9.8% 11.8% 11.4% 12.4% 13.3%
Debt / EBITDA #VALUE! 0.5 x 0.3 x 0.3 x 0.5 x 0.3 x 0.2 x 0.1 x 0.1 x
EBITA/Interest 26.8 x 60.6 x 113.9 x 29.8 x 56.9 x 76.9 x 146.1 x 288.1 x
RCF to Net Debt
Cash Conversion Cycle 132 115 145 160 102 56 50 45
EV / EBITDA #VALUE! #DIV/0! 43.01 x 40.49 x 45.21 x
EBITDA 46,902 78,796 83,629 47,040
Enterprise Value #VALUE! #DIV/0! 3,388,681 3,385,974 2,126,775
Diluted Equity Value #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3,372,227 3,369,195 2,114,451
Share Price #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.36 3.36 2.11
Diluted NOSH 1,002,375 1,002,375 1,002,375 1,002,375
(-) Excess Cash #VALUE! (10,996) (14,905) (17,181) (18,073)
(-) Other Liquid Investments & Cash-Li 0 0 0 0 0
(-) Equity Investments 0 0 0 0 0
(-) Other Non-Core Assets, Net 0 0 0 0 0
(+) Total Debt #VALUE! 21,594 22,882 25,895 21,438
(+) Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0
(+) Non-controlling Interests 0 793 605 1,499
(+) Unfunded Pension Obligations 0 0 0 0 0
(+) Capital Leases 0 7,684 7,460 7,460
(+) Restructuring & Legal Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
2022-06-30 LTM

12.2% 8.6%
52,923 28,954
64,891 35,502
18.4% 18.4%
433,196 335,780
845,999 593,029
168,403 75,046
95,963 97,119
148,436 85,084
148,436 85,084
168,403 75,046
393,922 293,887
4.2% -0.2%
17,989 (653)
433,196 335,780
9.5%
12.7% 9.8%
0.1 x 0.4 x
295.1 x 29.8 x

40 105
32.64 x
47,040
1,535,302
1,525,553
1.52
1,002,375
(18,073)
0
0
0
18,862
0
1,499
0
7,460
0
Fair Value Estimate

From To Football Field

Historical EY% Valuation Fair Value Base
FY EPS 1.54% 1.17% EY% - FY17 2.39 Y
FY17 0.028 1.80 2.39 EY% - R4Q 2.39 N
R4Q 0.028 1.80 2.39 EY% - FY18 3.21 Y
FY18 0.037 2.42 3.21 EY% - FY19 3.39 Y
FY19 0.040 2.56 3.39 EY% - FY20 4.04 N
FY20 0.047 3.05 4.04 EY% - FY21 4.53 N
FY21 0.053 3.42 4.53 EY% - FY22 4.65 N
FY22 0.054 3.51 4.65 DY% - FY17 0.00 N
Historical DY% DY% - R4Q 0.00 N
FY DPS 0.38% 0.23% DY% - FY18 4.87 N
FY17 0.000 0.00 0.00 DY% - FY19 5.15 N
R4Q 0.000 0.00 0.00 DY% - FY20 6.14 N
FY18 0.011 2.94 4.87 DY% - FY21 6.88 N
FY19 0.012 3.11 5.15 DY% - FY22 7.05 N
FY20 0.014 3.70 6.14 P/B - FY17 2.04 N
FY21 0.016 4.15 6.88 P/B - R4Q 2.04 N
FY22 0.016 4.26 7.05 P/B - FY18 2.15 N
Historical P/B P/B - FY19 2.27 N
FY BVPS 3.575 4.108 P/B - FY20 2.41 N
FY17 0.495 1.77 2.04 P/B - FY21 2.57 N
R4Q 0.495 1.77 2.04 P/B - FY22 2.74 N
FY18 0.524 1.87 2.15 DCF 0.00 Y
FY19 0.553 1.98 2.27 Total 2.80 0.50
FY20 0.588 2.10 2.41
FY21 0.626 2.24 2.57
FY22 0.666 2.38 2.74
Scenario Discounted Cash Flow
Baseline 0.00 0.00
Football Field
Good Bad Ugly
Y Y Y Scenario Fair Value Margin of Safety
N N N 4.18 0.36
Y Y Y Baseline 4.60 0.32
Y Y Y 3.79 0.39
N N N Good 4.25 0.35
N N N 2.66 0.56
N N N Bad 2.86 0.52
N N N 2.02 0.74
N N N Ugly 2.48 0.60
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
Y Y Y

2.30
3.30
 Calculator for Fair Value Uncertainty

Margin of Safety Rating Difference

5 -64.4%
5 -67.6%
5 -60.7%
5 -64.9%
5 -44.0%
5 -47.8%
5 -26.4%
5 -39.9%
Ownership

Top 5 Shareholders

% of Total Shares
Holder Common Stock Held As At Date Outstanding

Ownership Summary

Investor Type Common Stock Held %

Total 0
Discount Rate & Uncertainty

Systematic Risk
0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1
Revenue Cyclicality: Low Operating Leverage: Low Financial Leverage: Low

Uncertainty Risk

Uncertainty Risk:* Low

Nonsystematic Risk
1 1 1 1 1 1
Local Political Risk: Medium Foreign Political Risk: Medium Concentrated Product Risk: Medium
0.9 1.1 1 1 1 1
Concentrated Customer Risk: Low IP/Patent Expirations Risk: Medium Service Disruption Risk: Medium
1 1 1 1 1 1
Disintermediation Risk: Medium Large License Expirations Risk: Medium Large Contract Expirations Risk: Medium
1 1 1 1 1 1
Litigation Risk: Medium Environmental Risk: Medium Project Delivery Risk: Medium
1 1 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9
Commodity Risk: Medium Currency Risk: High Changing Competition: High
1.1 0.9 1 1 1 1
Price Taker: High Unpredictable Management: Medium Questionable Capital Allocation: Medium
1 1
Large Impairment Charges: Medium

Cost of Equity
0.729 0.08
Cost of Equity: 9.58% 1.0673289

Discount Rate (WACC)

Discount Rate: 9.35%

Self Defined Discount Rate