Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 17 (2002) 269279

Using Simulation to Understand the Impact of

Deferred Maintenance
Allan D. Chasey
Del E. Webb School of Construction, Arizona State University, Tempe,
Arizona 85287-02047, USA

&

Jesus M. de la Garza,* Donald R. Drew

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA

Abstract: This paper describes the development of a 1 INTRODUCTION

framework and methodology to use dynamic simulation to
understand and help quantify the impact of deferred main-
tenance on a highway system and the effect on user and
non-user benets. This type of simulation allows the test-
ing of policies and/or assumptions to gain insight into
the problem solution. With this framework, better struc-
tured decisions can be made on utilizing scarce resources
to provide for an areas total infrastructure needs. Using
the simulation model, policy decisions regarding deferring
maintenance can be viewed for their impact over time,
thus affecting the decision-making process. A hypothetical
region is used to demonstrate the use of the framework, and
possible measures of effectiveness, such as total net bene-
ts per capita, revenues less expenditures, and benetcost
ratio, are introduced that could be utilized to help decision-
makers understand the impact of funding decisions. The
dynamic modeling framework can then be applied and
calibrated to a region or state based on the area to be
studied.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
chema@vt.edu.
In the early 1980s, the decline in the U.S. infrastructure
was highlighted by a report entitled America in Ruins:
Beyond the Public Works Pork Barrel by Choate and
Walter (Barker, 1984). Articles in Newsweek (Richardson,
1982) and U.S. News and World Report (The Decaying of
America, 1982) further heightened the publics awareness
of the deteriorating condition of the nations public works.
Several studies (Vaughn, 1984; DHS, 1987; NCPWI, 1988;
OTA, 1990, 1991) indicated that maintenance must be a pri-
ority if the infrastructure is to carry on its primary purpose
of economic development. An early report, Fragile Foun-
dations, assigned grades to the various infrastructure sys-
tems and drew the conclusion that the quality of Americas
infrastructure is barely adequate to fulll current require-
ments and insufcient to meet the demands of future eco-
nomic growth and development (NCPWI, 1988). A cur-
rent analysis of the nations infrastructure by the American
Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE, 2001) gave the nations
highways a D+, further elaborating that one-third of the
nations major roads are in poor or mediocre condition.
This inefciency has come about through the publics lack
of understanding of the impact of deferred maintenance.
As Louisville, Kentucky Mayor Jerry Abramson said, Its

2002 Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering. Published by Blackwell Publishing, 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA,
and 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK.
270 Chasey, de la Garza & Drew
hard to run for re-election on the theme of Ive kept your
sewers from falling apart (Perry, 1989, p. 96).
This paper describes the development of a framework
and methodology to use dynamic simulation to under-
stand and help quantify the impact of deferred maintenance
and the effect on user and non-user benets. With this
framework, more structured decisions can be made on how
to utilize the scarce resources available for providing for an
areas total infrastructure needs. Policy decisions regarding
deferring maintenance can be viewed for their impact over
time, thus affecting the decision-making process.
2 IMPACT OF DEGRADED INFRASTRUCTURE
Deterioration of a highway system can manifest itself in
several ways: on the productivity of industries, on the qual-
ity of life of the citizens, and on the regional economy.
2.1 Productivity effects
Most every segment of the economy is affected either by
congestion or the deteriorated condition of the nations
highways. Goods transported by motor carriers are deliv-
ered more slowly, which increases the cost to consumers.
One study in 19781980 estimated that 11% of the nations
total wage-hours were spent in business travel. As travel
is slowed, the percentage of business-travel hours will
increase with no increase in value to the company (Butler
et al., 1984).
2.2 Quality of life effects
As roads or freeways become crowded, time is wasted wait-
ing in vehicles. Additional fuel is consumed and higher
levels of pollutants are added to the air from idling
cars. The Texas Transportation Institute estimated that in
1997, congestion cost American motorists about $72 bil-
lion (FHWA, 1999). Truck delays add another $7.6 billion
a year to the cost of goods that Americans buy according
to the American Association of State Highway and Trans-
portation Ofcials (AASHTO) (Drummond, 1991).
2.3 Regional economies
Businesses prosper when deliveries are faster, industries
expand when power and sewer resources are plentiful, and
exports increase when deep-water harbors are available
(Hage, 1992). Money spent on infrastructure will provide
jobs for construction industry workers and suppliers. The
increase in jobs and production will generate additional
tax revenues and also increase spending in other service-
related industries. The easier movement of goods and ser-
vices will add prots that will also generate increased tax
revenues. The increased prots can also lead to business
expansion, which translates to more jobs and additional tax
revenues. All of the increases have effects on other parts of
the economies as support industries follow to provide the
services required for the industry and the population.
3 MAINTENANCE LEVEL OF SERVICE
One of the difcult tasks in maintenance management is
to determine what level of maintenance is required for a
transportation network. Multiple and often conicting fac-
tors must be considered, such as safety, riding comfort, pro-
tection of investment, and economics. An early study by
Kulkarni et al. in 1980 determined that maintenance levels
were often subjective based on the experience of the per-
sonnel involved in the maintenance activities. Having no
systematic method of determining a level of maintenance
leads to inefcient use of limited resource dollars.
Kulkarnis research continued, providing guidelines for
developing maintenance Levels of Service, dened as a
threshold deciency level that should trigger an appropri-
ate maintenance action (Kulkarni et al., 1980, p. 5). Each
level dened was based on opinions of department spe-
cialists to determine ideal and barely tolerable main-
tenance levels with a spectrum of in-between levels. The
nal objective of the study was to nd the optimum level
of maintenance for roadway conditions in the system that
maximized the user benets subject to the resource con-
straints. Unfortunately, the levels of maintenance were not
connected to a functional Level of Service such as dened
by a relationship to capacity. The Levels of Service were
subjective alternate levels of maintenance described after
reaching a threshold condition requiring action.
Maintenance does have an effect on the operating level
of the highway network, since pavement roughness has
been connected to vehicle speed, thus affecting trafc vol-
ume (Karan and Haas, 1976). Pavement roughness will
affect user vehicle-repair costs and will also contribute to
the user perception of poor riding comfort, a measure of
the Highway Capacity Manual Level of Service. Research
accomplished by Janoff et al. (1985) correlated a subjec-
tive opinion from a panel of users for needed road repair
based on ride quality with an objective physical measure
of roughness determined by instrumentation, for example,
a Mays ride meter. One of the conclusions of the study
indicated that for rougher roads, slower travel would seem
to make the ride more comfortable to the panel of riders. If
pavement roughness does cause motorists to slow down for
a more comfortable ride, then again, Level of Service may
be lower than determined by the normal capacity analysis.
4 COMPREHENSIVE LEVEL OF SERVICE
A Comprehensive Level of Service was dened (Chasey
et al., 1997) as the combination of two areas: (1) a Level
 Using simulation to understand the impact of deferred maintenance
of Operation, which denes the maintenance (deterioration)
characteristics and the effect on trafc ow, and (2) a Level
of Availability, which denes the capacity (obsolescence)
characteristics of the roadway. This denition reects the
impact of maintenance on the desired qualities of Level
of Service, as dened by the Highway Capacity Manual,
which is a qualitative measure describing operational con-
ditions, such as speed, travel time, freedom to maneuver,
comfort, convenience, and safety within a trafc stream and
the motorists perception of those conditions (TRB, 1985).
The Level of Operation Index denes the physical con-
dition of the roadway that indicates the system level of
deterioration. Present Level of Service calculations in the
Highway Capacity Manual assume good pavement condi-
tions, but provide no adjustment factor for deteriorated
pavement.
The Level of Availability Index denes the obsolescence
of the roadway and is a measure of the system congestion.
The rate of trafc ow is dened by the number of vehicles
per lane per hour in a trafc stream. Comparing this rate
of ow to the maximum rate of ow, or roadway capacity,
will indicate the Level of Availability or degree of obsoles-
cence of a roadway. Current operating capacity calculations
seek to estimate the trafc speed and density, thus Level
of Service, by considering the road alignment, the physical
road construction features, such as lane widths or distances
to obstructions, and the percentage of trucks and buses in
the trafc mix.
Both the Level of Operation and Level of Availability
affect a highways Comprehensive Level of Service. If a
road is well maintained, but crowded, the Level of Ser-
vice is low. Users costs are increased by lower speeds and
increased travel time. Motorists convenience is less, and
trafc interruptions are increased. If a roadway has very
few vehicles, but the surface is rough, potholed, and/or
patched, the Level of Service is still low. Users costs are
increased through excess vehicle repairs. Travel is uncom-
fortable because of the rough road. Speed will be reduced
to try to make the road seem smoother, which will increase
travel times and vehicle operating costs. For industries,
transportation-related costs such as these will be included
in the pricing of the goods produced, increasing the prices
to consumers.
Increasing the Level of Operation of a road surface may
not increase the Level of Availability. For example, re-
paving a congested highway may provide a smoother sur-
face for motorists, but will do nothing to increase the over-
all Level of Service. Similarly, increasing the Level of
Availability by constructing new roads and not maintaining
the existing system may not increase the Level of Opera-
tion.
A Level of Service indicator is very important to the
transportation industry. As noted, the Level of Service def-
inition includes several attributes, including driver comfort,
271
economics, and reliability. With the current Level of Ser-
vice denition, maintenance is not explicitly considered,
yet maintenance efforts will have a direct impact on a
Comprehensive Level of Service of any highway system.
Maintenance, or lack of, will directly affect the qualita-
tive measurements of the Level of Service. Rough roads,
potholes, or even slick road surfaces, as well as conges-
tion, narrow travel lanes, and winding roads will contribute
to decreased driver comfort and convenience, speed and
safety, and to increased density, trafc interruptions, travel
time, and operating costs. All these attributes are identi-
ed as providing a Level of Service to the motoring public,
indicating that both maintenance and construction activities
must be considered when the Level of Service is deter-
mined.
5 SYSTEM DYNAMICS
SIMULATION MODELING
The goal of the modeling effort is to improve understand-
ing of the relationships between feedback structures and
dynamic behaviors of a system so that policies for improv-
ing problematic behavior may be developed (Richardson
and Pugh, 1981). System dynamics is a modeling method-
ology whose purpose is to assist in the understanding
of complex problems and provide an approach for repre-
senting the dynamic relationships between variables in a
system. Understanding a complex problem then allows test-
ing policies and/or assumptions to gain insight into prob-
lem solutions, or at least, a minimization of the potential
outcome. As a modeling tool, system dynamics is based
on the use of dynamic relationships (i.e., quantities that
change over time), feedback, and control theory. Modeling
complex problems over a period of time permits decision-
makers an opportunity to evaluate the future implications of
present decisions as an analysis of change. System dynam-
ics provides a methodology for the understanding and man-
agement of complex systems in order to provide a desired
performance.
With a foundation of decision-making, dynamic relation-
ships, feedback analysis, and simulation, systems can be
dened and modeled that will allow experimentation in a
laboratory setting. Decision-making relates to how action
is taken. Dynamic relationships deal with quantities that
change over time. Feedback analysis deals with the way
information is used in the decision-making process. Simu-
lation permits decision-makers an opportunity to view the
implication of their decisions at a future time. This is
the power of system dynamics. By varying those variables
within the direct control of the decision-makers, various
policy scenarios can be quickly investigated for discussion,
critique, revision, and reapplication.
DYNAMO (DYNAmic MOdeling) is a computer simu-
lation language intended for use in modeling real-world
272 Chasey, de la Garza & Drew
systems so the behavior of a problem can be traced through
time. In the modeling scenario, a problem is rst identied
and verbalized, since verbal descriptions are the simplest
way of communicating the behavior of the system under
study. The more detail available, the easier the model is to
construct. This verbal description is the written form of a
mental model, representing a qualitative model of a system,
since no mathematical precision is involved. With only a
verbal description of the system, no experimentation can
take place to determine the impact of different variables in
the model.
The verbalization of a problem is then translated into
a causal diagram, which is a picture of the verbal model
explicitly dening the interactions between variables. The
causal diagram is a series of cause-and-effect relationships
that display the interactions between key variables that
will allow an analysis of how a system works. Different
classes of variables, levels and rates, indicate the function
of a specic variable in the nalized causal diagram. Level
variables represent the state of the system. Rate variables
dene the change in that system over an interval of time.
Auxiliary variables provide additional information about
the rates of change. Some of the auxiliary variables, clas-
sied as decision variables, are under the control of the
decision-maker. For example, the amount of funding pro-
vided for maintenance work is under the direct control
of the decision-makers. Another set of variables can be
dened as measures of effectiveness, or measures of how
well the decision variable controlled the system. For exam-
ple, a benetcost ratio is a measure of the effectiveness
of maintenance spending. The chains of levels and rates
form feedback loops that generate either continued growth
or decline (a positive loop) or eventual equilibrium (a neg-
ative loop). Increasing complexities within a system make
it necessary to use computer simulation to determine the
response of variables in a system.
The generally implicit verbal form of a model is trans-
formed into a detailed explicit mathematical model through
the causal diagram that can be revised, criticized, changed,
and discussed iteratively and sequentially. A verbal model
is often misunderstood between groups of interested peo-
ple, but a mathematical model allows formal quantication
of the dynamic relationships identied through the causal
diagram. In the system dynamics methodology, integration
is the basis for the solution of the level and rate structure.
Level variables, Lt, accumulate a physical entity at time
t. Rate variables indicate the change in the level variable
over the interval from time t 1 to t. In a mathematical
sense, this relationship can be written as

t
Lt = L0 + RI RO dt (1)
0
where Lt = the value of the level at any time t
L0 = initial value of the level at time = 0
RI = rate being added or rate in
RO = rate being subtracted or rate out
Solution of this mathematical formulation by a computer
simulation is accomplished using a difference equation
form instead of the integration form:
LK = LJ + DTRIJK ROJK (2)
where L.K = the value of the level at any time t Lt 
L.J = the value of the level at time t 1
RI.JK = rate being added or rate in
from time t 1 to t (RI)
RO.JK = rate being subtracted or rate out
from time t 1 to t (RO)
DT = time interval of time t 1 to t dt
The difference equation indicates that the level at any time
t is equal to the level at time t 1 plus the change over
the time interval from t 1 to t due to the rate in and rate
out. Substitution of auxiliary variables that add information
about the rates into the level equation will allow solution of
the model in an analytical sense. The model behavior can
then be determined from the solution, and the impact of a
change in the decision variable can be graphed over time.
Within any system dynamics model, feedback loops
determine the dynamic behavior. The chains of level and
rate variables form feedback loops generating either con-
tinued growth or decline or eventual equilibrium. Recog-
nizing the type of behavior in the problem being modeled
will provide insight into the type of feedback structure at
work in the system, which can lead to policy implementa-
tion approaches that can change the systems behavior. For
example, positive feedback loops, demonstrated by systems
that exhibit an exponential growth or decaying behavior,
are continually feeding on themselves to reinforce its own
growth or decline. This gives rise to the vicious circle
or snowball effect. Negative feedback loops, on the other
hand, tend to seek an equilibrium position, attempting to
counteract any deviation from an equilibrium point or goal
state in a self-regulating manner. A system that is moving
toward a steady state has a negative feedback loop. In a
system with both a negative and positive feedback loop, the
dominant loop will determine the overall system behavior.
When a system is showing a constant growth or decline,
a positive loop is dominant in the model structure. Using
this knowledge of feedback loops, the positive feedback
loop can be controlled by adding a negative loop to work
on the same level variables that dominate and inuence the
continuous growth. Adding a negative loop provides the
decision-makers an opportunity to make a policy decision.
For complex systems, such as highway, several intercon-
nected feedback loops make an analysis more difcult, even
though the implications of an isolated loop are relatively
obvious. This interconnection of several feedback loops is
particularly amenable to computer simulation.
 Using simulation to understand the impact of deferred maintenance
6 HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE MODEL
Most problems facing society today are too complex to be
understood in their entirety. Just looking for relationships
between two variables fails to consider the entire system
and the impact of feedback loops that are inherent in most
social, technical, economic, and political systems. While
most social science methodologies are oriented toward
gathering and testing data, system dynamics is directed
toward serving as a guide to action. By incorporating the
aspect of feedback and studying the system behavior, much
can be learned and then applied to controlling the system.
The major goal of understanding can be achieved when a
model is open for discussion and resolution. The increas-
ing complexities of the systems make it necessary to use a
computer simulation to determine the response of a system.
A system dynamics model was developed to simu-
late the impact of deferred maintenance and/or obsoles-
cence of a highway system using the Comprehensive Level
of Service concept. The Maintenance Level of Operation
model was developed to dene the relationships between
maintenance activities and trafc volume and then utilize
trafc-generated highway revenues to maintain the level
of operation of the road surface. A simulation model was
also developed to simulate the level of availability for a
comprehensive level of service.
The causal diagram (Figure 1) represents the mainte-
nance portion of the developed model to assist in under-
standing the impact of deferring maintenance. From the
verbal description for this model, the road system is
considered to be in three states or levels of repair: Phys-
ically Sufcient Highway (PSH), Physically DeFicient
Highway (PDFH), and Physically DeTeriorated Highway
(PDTH). The road surface ages over time and with a
Highway Aging rate (HA), physically sufcient highway
will become physically decient highway. Similarly, with a
Highway Deteriorating rate (HD), physically decient high-
way will become physically deteriorated highway. Mainte-
nance efforts will upgrade the road surface. Either High-
way Ordinary Maintenance (HOM) will upgrade the road
surface from physically decient highway to physically
sufcient highway or Highway Maintenance Replacement
(HMR) will upgrade the road surface from physically dete-
riorated highway to physically sufcient highway. The
number of lane-miles of pavement that can be maintained
each year is dependent on the maintenance rates. For
example, the Highway Ordinary Maintenance rate (HOM)
varies directly with the Highway Maintenance Expenditure
(HME) and the Fraction of Expenditure to Ordinary Main-
tenance (FEOM). The highway ordinary maintenance rate
is inversely proportional to the Ordinary Maintenance Cost
(OMC). This means that as the highway ordinary main-
tenance cost increases, the number of lane-miles that can
be maintained will decrease. As the highway maintenance
273
expenditure (HME) increases, the number of lane-miles
that can be maintained increases. Similarly, as the frac-
tion expended on ordinary maintenance (FEOM) increases,
the highway ordinary maintenance (HOM) rate increases.
The Fraction of Highway Down for Maintenance Per Year
(FHDMPY) is dependent on the highway ordinary mainte-
nance rate (HOM), the highway maintenance replacement
rate (HMR), and the Total number of lane-miles of High-
WaY (HWYT). As the ordinary replacement rate and/or
the maintenance replacement rate increases, the fraction
of highway down for maintenance increases. As the total
number of lane-miles of highway increases, the fraction of
highway down for maintenance per year decreases.
The Road Quality Index (RQI) is a measure of the overall
physical condition of the highway system. It is dependent
on the states of the highwayphysically sufcient, phys-
ically decient, and physically deteriorated. The roadway
states are weighted by a Decient Weight Factor (DFWF)
and a Deteriorated Weight Factor (DTWF). As the level
of physically decient highway or physically deteriorated
highway increases, the Road Quality Index decreases. The
highway Level of Operation is dened by the Road Quality
Index (RQI) and the fraction of highway down for main-
tenance per year (FHDMPY). As the Road Quality Index
increases, the Level of Operation Index (LOI) increases.
As the fraction of highway down for maintenance per year
increases, the Level of Operation Index decreases. A simi-
lar causal diagram was also developed to dene the Level
of Availability Index (LAI) using the construction variables
in the simulation.
With both the Level of Operation Index (LOI) and Level
of Availability Index (LAI) dened, a Comprehensive Level
of Service (CLOS) is now computable as a measure of both
maintenance and construction activities on a highway sys-
tem. As the Level of Operation increases, the Comprehen-
sive Level of Service increases. Similarly, as the Level of
Availability increases, the Comprehensive Level of Service
increases. Travel time, a measure of the level of service of
a highway system, can now be computed. This Travel time
(TKL) is dependent on the Comprehensive Level of Ser-
vice, the capacity of the highway, the free ow travel time,
and the volume of trafc initially on a link of highway. The
travel time variation on a segment of highway can now be
simulated to determine both user and non-user benets, as
a measure of effectiveness, for the highway system.
7 USER AND NON-USER BENEFIT ANALYSIS
Most highway infrastructure in the U.S. has been pri-
marily constructed and maintained with public money. As
government has grown, the need to have a method to ensure
efcient use of public money led to the creation of a
benet-to-cost rationale to indicate whether the benets to
274 Chasey, de la Garza & Drew

+
Hwy Revenues Aver Fuel Tax per Total Net Revenues Less
Generated Efficiency Gallon Benefit Expenditures

- -
- HRG AFE TPG + TNB - RLE
+ + +
+
Conversion Factor Travel Time on Fract Ind Output Link to Shipping Lenght of
to Annual Traffic Link Normal to Trans Normal Distance Ratio Link KL

CFTAT TKLN FIOTN LSDR + LLKL

-
+ - + +
User + Fract Ind Output Non-User
+ Industrial Aver Shipping
Benefit to Trans Benefit Output Distance

UB FIOT - NUB + IO ASD

+ -
+
+
+
Volume on Travel Time Comprehensive Level of Availability Level of Operation
Link KL on Link KL Level of Service Index Index

QKL - TKL - CLOS + LAI - LOI

+ +
+ +
Value of Capacity of Road Quality + Deficient Deteriorated
Time Link KL Index Weight Factor Weight Factor

VOT NKL*CKL RQI + DFWF DTWF

+
+
- +

Fract Expend to Ordinary Highway Maintenance Fract Expend to

Ordinary Maint Maint Cost + Total + Replacement Cost Maint Replacement

FEOM OMC HWYT MRC FEMR

+

+ - - - +
Hwy Ordinary Fract Hwy Down for Hwy Maint
Maintenance Rate Maint Per Year Replacement Rate
+ +
+ +
HOM FHDMPY HMR

+ - -
Physically Highway Physically Highway Physically
Sufficient Hwy + Aging Rate Deficient Hwy Deteriorating Rate Deteriorated Hwy

PSH - HA + PDFH - HD + PDTH

+ +
- -
+
Free Flow Highway + Hwy Maintenance Highway Unit Maint
Travel Time KL Aging Time Expenditure Det Time Hwy Expend

FFTKL HAT HME HDETT UMHE

Fig. 1. Causal diagram for highway maintenance model.

 Using simulation to understand the impact of deferred maintenance 275

be derived by the public exceeded the cost in tax dollars to where U0 = user cost per unit of trafc (vehicles)
be expended. The benetcost ratio has been used almost at time t0
exclusively since 1952 to determine the economic benet U1 = user cost per unit of trafc at later time t1
of highway construction (Winfrey, 1969). This benetcost V0 = volume of trafc at time t0
ratio is expressed as follows (Thuesen and Fabrycky, 1993): V1 = volume of trafc at later time t1
benets to the public User benets (UB) are represented by basic section costs
BCi = (3)
cost to the government and accident costs. For this framework, basic section costs
include a unit time value (i.e., travel time) and a vehicle
The benets are considered to be the advantages that accrue
operating cost based on the volume of trafc and the condi-
to the public less the expenditures required to maintain that
tion of the road section. Accident costs are not considered
advantage. The costs are considered to be the disbursements
in this analysis.
necessary to make the improvements being considered. The
Figure 2 graphically illustrates the principles involved in
easiest way to state the benets and costs is in monetary
the user cost and benet relationships. Consider, for exam-
terms, although not always possible, as in the case of ben-
ple, motorists in a region that use a highway regularly for
ets such as security, the environment, or the aesthetics of
commuting to work. The users will create a trafc demand
an area.
curve implying that as the time to commute decreases, the
The user benets, as dened by the American Asso-
volume of trafc using the highway will increase. The sup-
ciation of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials
ply from the existing highway, or the capacity curve, will
(AASHTO) manual, Analysis of Highway and Bus-Transit
indicate the trafc volume and travel time. The intersec-
Improvements 1977 (known as the Redbook), are the
tion point of the existing facility supply and trafc demand
advantages, privileges, and/or cost reductions that accrue
curves, point P, will determine the trafc volume, V 0, and
to highway motor vehicle users (drivers or owners) through
travel time, UB0. When a new highway is constructed or
the use of a particular transportation facility as compared
the existing highway expanded or improved, a new supply
with the use of another. Benets are generally measured in
(capacity curve) is determined. The new intersection point
terms of a decrease in user costs (AASHTO, 1978, p. 6).
on the existing demand curve and the improved facility sup-
These benets are usually dened as a reduction in travel
ply curve, point M, determine a revised trafc volume, V 1,
time, reduced vehicle operating costs, and improved safety.
and travel time, UB1. With travel time, hence travel cost,
As travel time and/or vehicle operating costs are reduced,
being a major indicator of the Level of Service on the road-
user benets will increase. As safety is improved, user ben-
way, the difference between the existing travel time (UB0)
ets will also increase.
and the new travel time (UB1) corresponds to the user cost
Non-user benets are those benets that accrue to the
per unit of trafc U0 U1 . The benets derived from the
community at large, based on the increased transportation
reduction in user cost can now be calculated. The differ-
activities. These benets can be increasing economic activ-
ence in user cost is multiplied by the average trafc vol-
ities, population, land values and business opportunities.
ume between the existing highway (V 0) and the improved
One method of determining the effect of transportation on
facility (V 1) because an increase in trafc is assumed to
the non-users is to examine the impact of reduced travel
occur over time and the average will more closely approxi-
time on the fraction of transportation costs in the total
mate the trafc growth rather than a single unchanged traf-
industrial output. As the travel time is reduced, the fraction
c volume.
of transportation cost would decrease, increasing the ability
of industry to reinvest those dollars in business expansion.
Traffic Demand
Travel Time (minutes)

Travel Cost ($/mile)

Highway Supply
(Capacity)
8 MODEL APPROACH TO THE SIMULATION
and/or

High ting

OF USER/NON-USER BENEFITS
way
Exis

P
gh ed
y
Hi prov

UB0
wa

The user benets for this simulation model are based on

Im

AASHTOs Redbook (AASHTO, 1978). User benets are

UB1

based on vehicle operating costs, due to the maintenance

condition of the road, and travel time, due to the trafc
conditions. The form of the equation from the AASHTO
manual is as follows:
  V0 V1
V0 + V1 Traffic Volume (vehicles per hour)
UB = U0 U1  (4)
2 Fig. 2. Highway user cost and benet relationships single facility.
276 Chasey, de la Garza & Drew

User benets depend on the volume of trafc, travel
time, and vehicle operating costs. As the vehicle oper-
ating costs decrease, the user benets will increase. As
the travel time decreases, the user benets will increase
because the user costs are decreasing. The average vol-
ume of trafc will also affect the user benets. The mod-
eling equations for the user benets simulation are as
follows:
Queuing develops because delays arise when faster vehi-
cles catch up with slower vehicles. The faster vehicles are
required to either change lanes to pass or wait until a pass-
ing lane is clear. In the case of a single lane, a congested
condition, or maintenance work being performed, a passing
lane may not be available. The queuing mechanism at work
is introduced into the trafc ow equation (Equation 6) in
the following form (Drew, 1993):

UBK = VOCNVOCK 1 1 j 
T = Tf (9)
+TKLNTKLK VOTK  1

QKLK +QKLN/2 CFTAT (5) where T = travel time (minutes)

Tf = free ow travel time (minutes)
TKLK = FFTKL 1CLSFK QKLK/ 1 j = Level of Service Factor
NKL CKL /1QKLK/NKL CKL (6) (dimensionless)
j = Comprehensive Level of Service Factor
TKLN = FFTKL 1CLSFN QKLN/  = q/Q = volume on link/capacity of link
(dimensionless)
NKL CKL /1QKLN/NKL CKL (7) Q = n c (vehicles/hour)
n = number of lanes
QKLK = QKLN CLSFK/CLSFN (8) c = capacity of single lane (vehicles/hour)
where UB = User Benets ($/year/mile)
VOCN = Vehicle Operating Costs
Normal ($/mile) 9 MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
VOC = Vehicle Operating Costs ($/mile) HYPOTHETICAL REGION
TKLN = Travel Time Link K to L normal
(minutes/mile) The system dynamics methodology was utilized in devel-
TKL = Travel Time Link K to L oping a model framework to help understand the interac-
(minutes/mile) tion between maintenance and construction activities and
QKL = Volume on Link from K to L the impact of deferring maintenance. The model was then
(vehicles/hour) applied to a hypothetical region to develop ideas for a
QKLN = Volume on Link from K to L Normal decision-makers tool kit that could be used to provide
(vehicles/hour) insight and structure to difcult investment decisions. The
VOT = Value of Time ($/minute) region was modeled after a rural section of Southwest Vir-
CFTAT = Conversion Factor to Two-Way ginia with a population of 200,000 that contains approxi-
Annual Trafc (hour/year) mately 400 lane-miles of interstate at varying levels of dete-
FFTKL = Free Flow Travel Time from rioration. Additional initial model parameters are dened
K to L (minutes/mile) in Table 1.
CLSF = Value of Comprehensive Level of
Service Factor (dimensionless)
Table 1
NKL = Number of Lanes from K to L (lanes) Initial model parameters for comprehensive level of
CKL = Lane Capacity on Link KL service model
(vehicles/hour)
Variable Variable description Initial value
Both user and non-user benets alike are tied to the
travel time. As travel time decreases, user benets increase. QKLN Trafc volume 2500 vehicles/h
Travel time on a highway is dependent on the Comprehen- TPG Tax per gallon $0.30/gal
sive Level of Service as measured by the Level of Opera- AFE Average fuel efciency 20 miles/gal
tion and the Level of Availability, the capacity of the high- NKL Number of lanes 2
way, the free ow travel time and the volume of trafc on CKL Capacity of lanes 2400 vehicles/h
a link of highway. The travel time formula (Equation 6) CFTAT Conversion factor 4000 h
for two-way trafc
incorporates a queuing mechanism (in the form of Equa- LLKL Length of link 100 mi
tion 9) into the usually dened travel time formulation.
 Using simulation to understand the impact of deferred maintenance 277

10 MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURE
SCENARIO

The Department of Transportation needs to know the effect

250
of the distribution of funding for maintenance options on
the regions highway system maintenance. The mainte-

Total Net Benefits Per

200

Capita ($/yr/person)
nance model (Figure 1) reects two maintenance options: 150
ordinary maintenance and maintenance replacement. Ordi- 100
nary maintenance, considered spot patching, crack seal-
ing, or slurry patching, is the type of work typically 50

accomplished by in-house maintenance forces. Mainte- 0

nance replacement activities would include seal coats or -50 0.1

overlays, the type of work accomplished by contract forces. 15000 0.3
14000
The question to be discussed is, What is the effect of apply- 13000
12000 0.5
11000
ing more funding to contract work, considering ination 10000
9000 0.7
8000
and assuming no new highways are to be constructed, with Unit Maint Hwy Expend ($/yr/In-mi)
7000
6000 0.9 Fraction Expend
Ordinary Maint
5000
a reduction of in-house work forces as a result of reduced
government budgets? Fig. 3. Total net benets per capita vs UMHE vs FEOM
Using the maintenance model and assuming the initial simulated over 20 years.
level and cost conditions shown in Table 2, Figures 3, 4,
and 5 were developed to indicate the type of information
and visual aids that could be made available to the decision- decreasing point of the graph. This indicates that less traf-
makers. These graphs show the impact of reducing ordi- c is moving on the highway system. However, decreas-
nary maintenance in the areas of revenues, net benets, ing the fraction of expenditure for ordinary maintenance to
and benetcost ratios. Reducing ordinary maintenance is 30%, to increase the revenues, would decrease the total net
in effect deferring maintenance until road deterioration is benets per year to $143, a decrease of 32%.
more severe before making repairs. Figure 5 graphically displays the benets (e.g., less travel
This type of model provides information for the decision- time) that would accrue to the public less the expendi-
makers in a format that allows quick comparison of con- tures required to maintain that benet. Ideally, the benet
icting types of indicators. For example, Figure 3 provides cost ratio should be the highest. The benetcost ratio for
a graphical view of the impact that varying the fraction the same maintenance expenditure rate used for Figure 3
(or percentage) of maintenance expenditures on the high- is approximately 5.0 (Figure 5), which is not the expen-
way system will have on the benets to the population. The diture rate for the best available benetcost ratio. The
maintenance expenditure rate where the greatest total net
benet per capita is available is $14,000 per year per lane-
mile with 50% of the maintenance expenditure rate being
used for ordinary maintenance.
Figure 4 tracks the revenues available for highway main- 30000
tenance generated by trafc volume. The revenues less
Revenues Less Expenditures

25000
expenditures for the same expenditure rate are approxi-
mately $18,000 per year per lane-mile (Figure 4) on a 20000
($/yr/ln-mi)

15000
Table 2
Initial values for maintenance effects scenario 10000

5000
Parameter Parameter description Initial value
0.9
0
PSH Physically sufcient highway 200 lane-miles 0.7
14000
PDFH Physically decient highway 100 lane-miles 12000 0.5

PDTH Physically deteriorated highway 100 lane-miles 1000 0.3

8000
OMC Ordinary maintenance cost $50,000/lane-mile Unit Maint Hwy Expend ($/yr/In-mi) 6000
0.1 Fraction Expend

MRC Maintenance replacement cost $200,000/lane-mile 4000 Ordinary Maint

INF Ination rate 3%

LAI Level of availability index 0375 Fig. 4. Revenues less expenditures vs UMHE vs FEOM
simulated over 20 years.
278
11
10
9
Benefit Cost Ratio
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 0.7
14000
12000
0.5
0.3 Fraction
10000
8000
0.1
Unit Maint Hwy Expend ($/yr/In-mi)
6000
4000
Fig. 5. Benetcost ratio vs UMHE vs FEOM simulated
over 20 years.
expenditure rate for the best available benetcost ratio is
approximately $13,000 per year per lane mile with 70% of
the maintenance expenditure rate being used for ordinary
maintenance. If the Revenues Less Expenditures is reduced
to $16,000 per year per lane mile as a result of reduc-
ing the fraction of expenditure for ordinary maintenance,
the benetcost ratio is reduced even further to approxi-
mately 3.
11 CONCLUSION OF MAINTENANCE
EFFECTS SIMULATION
With this information available, the decision-makers can
make a conscious decision about the best use of available
resources. An analysis of the simulation graphs indicates
the impact of decreasing ordinary maintenance expendi-
tures, which is a de facto deferring of maintenance since
less routine maintenance is accomplished. If larger contract
maintenance expenditure is required, the total net benets
per capita and the benetcost ratio will decrease, indicat-
ing that the benets for the users and non-users will be
decreased, potentially from a positive to a negative value.
Consequently, as the benetcost ratio decreases, the bene-
ts derived from the expenditures that are made are not as
effective. The declining revenues less expenditures graph
shown in Figure 4 results because the increased mainte-
nance expenditure rate reduces the revenues less expen-
ditures by a greater amount than the increased highway
revenues generated. This quantication of the impact of
deferring maintenance would be benecial to decision-
makers as they can quickly and visually assimilate the
impact of deferring maintenance expenditures on the high-
way system.
Chasey, de la Garza & Drew
Questions are constantly being posed as to the impact of
various expenditures versus the benets from those expen-
ditures. By modeling a system such as the maintenance
and construction interaction on a highway system, vari-
ous policies from the decision-makers can be viewed in a
laboratory setting to conceptualize and visualize the out-
come and impact of the policy scenarios. To illustrate
the impact of various policy decisions, a highway system
model was developed that could simulate the effect of dif-
ferent maintenance and construction expenditure rates. This
dynamic simulation allowed an analysis of the impact of
those expenditure rates using total net benets per capita,
revenues less expenditures, and a benetcost ratio as mea-
sures of effectiveness. With these three measures of effec-
tiveness, a decision-making board would have a better
Expend understanding of the impact of various expenditure rates on
Ordinary
Maint different interest groups being served within the commu-
nity. The population of a region would like the highest net
benet to be returned for the highway investment, while
the highway department needs revenues for maintenance
and construction activities and the policy board wants to
make the best investment of revenues with maximum ben-
ets obtained. If these desires are in conict, then a frame-
work such as the one developed will provide information
for a more rational and structured approach to the decisions
made. Calibrating a model to a specic location or region
may then generate an optimum point that would provide
the maximum benets to all parties involved.
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