Terror in Paris is pushing Russia and the West closer together

Nov 17th 2015 | Europe

IN THE face of a common threat from Islamist terror, Russia and the West
may be moving closer, if not exactly standing shoulder to shoulder. The shift in the
relationship first became apparent at the G20 summit in Turkey on November 15th
and 16th, where Vladimir Putin found himself the centre of attention. At last years
meeting, amid tensions over the crisis in Ukraine, the atmosphere was so frosty
that Mr Putin jetted home early. This year, in the wake of the attacks in Paris, the
Russian president huddled for private chats with the American president, Barack
Obama, and British prime minister, David Cameron.
On November 16th the French president, Franois Hollande, announced that
he would travel to Washington and Moscow in the coming days to talk to Mr
Obama and Mr Putin about joining forces to fight Islamic State (IS). By the
following morning, the Russian president and his security chiefs had
acknowledged that a bomb brought down the Russian Metrojet flight over Egypt
late last month, bringing Russias position into alignment with that of Western
governments.
When Russia first launched its intervention in Syria, Mr Putin spoke of a
broad international coalition against terrorism. Senior Kremlin officials suggested
that Russia and the West could unite against a common enemy (and, it was
implied, forget about Ukraine). Yet Mr Putins bombs initially did little to win the
Wests favour. Western governments complained that Russia hit American-backed
rebel groups more often than it did IS. Mr Obama called the Russian strategy a
recipe for disaster. Whatever the intentions, Russias divide with the West only
deepened.
But the attacks in Paris have revived talk of a grand coalition. At the end of
the G20 meeting, Mr Putin declared that relations had already improved: Life
goes on, everything changes: new problems arise, new threats, new challenges,
which would be difficult for anyone to solve alone. We need to join forces. On
Tuesday, echoing Mr Hollandes anger after the Paris attacks, Mr Putin promised
retribution for the 224 people killed over Sinai. He announced that Russias
bombing campaign in Syria would only be intensified: We will search for them
everywhere, no matter where they are hiding. We will find them at any point on the
planet and punish them. Russian commentators drew parallels with the anti-Hitler
alliance that brought Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt together despite their obvious
ideological differences.
The West appears interested, or at the very least, resigned to the idea that
dealing with IS may mean working with Russia. John Brennan, the director of the
CIA, says Russia and America ought to share more intelligence. White House
officials described Mr Obamas chat with Mr Putin as constructive. Britains prime
minister spoke of compromise after his meeting. Mr Putin signalled his own
willingness to make a deal, offering a rare conciliatory gesture and ending a long
stand-off over Ukraines $3 billion debt to Russia. Rather than endangering
Ukraines debt restructuring agreement by demanding immediate repayment of the
bond, Mr Putin has said he will accept $1 billion per year between 2016-2018.
But despite the apparent surge of mutual goodwill, serious obstacles to co-
operation remain. As Vedomosti, an influential Russian daily paper, noted on
November 17th: Discussions of a united front sound pretty as long as they dont
concern details or concrete concessions. The two sides have yet to agree on the
fate of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president and an ally of Moscow, whose
continued rule the West opposes. Syrian peace talks in Vienna over the weekend
produced a vague road map for elections, but no clarity on Mr Assads future.
Separating an alliance against IS from the situation in Ukraine will also prove
tricky. Although a ceasefire has helped reduce tensions in eastern Ukraine, the
political elements of the Minsk peace plan have yet to be implemented, meaning
that fighting may flare up again. In the past couple of days six Ukrainian soldiers
were killed in skirmishes near Donetsk.
Ultimately, partnership requires trust, and after two years of sparring over
Ukraine, there is little between Russia and the West. Having a mutual enemy will
not bring an end to suspicion and animosity, not least because Mr Putins standing
at home depends on a heavy dose of anti-Americanism. Indeed, the chairman of the
Russian parliaments international affairs committee, Alexei Pushkov, suggested
that the American-led coalitions foolish stance was responsible for the deaths in
Paris. Russian broadcasters portrayed the attacks in Paris as the inevitable result of
wrong-headed Western policies in the Middle East. State-run Channel One told
viewers that Russia had long warned the West about where its presumptuousness
in the Middle East would lead. Whatever the strategic imperatives, saying I told
you so is a poor basis for co-operation.