PLN (PERSERO)
Penyaluran dan Pusat
TRANSMISSION MASTER PLAN SYSTEM OF
Pengatur Beban
SUMATERA STUDY Sumatera
Final Report of transmission master plan
study of Sumatera system
MASTERPLAN SISTEM
KELISTRIKAN SUMATERA
Kontrak No.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015
Amandemen No.1.AMD.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015
VOLUME VI
FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR TRANSMISSION
MASTER PLAN SYSTEM OF SUMATERA STUDY
Final Report of transmission master plan study of Sumatera system
Prepared By
AF-Mercados EMI
22 JUNI 2017
Kontrak No.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015 PT. PLN (PERSERO)
Amandemen No.1.AMD.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015 Penyaluran dan Pusat
Pengatur Beban
Sumatera
VOLUME VI
FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR TRANSMISSION
MASTER PLAN SYSTEM OF SUMATERA STUDY
Final Report of transmission master plan study of Sumatera system
Prepared By
AF-Mercados EMI
22 JUNI 2017
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Content
Content ................................................................................................................................. i
Table of Figures ................................................................................................................... v
6.1. The Consultancy Assistance .................................................................................. 1
6.2. The purpose of this report: ..................................................................................... 2
6.3. Summary of the analysis, comments and conclusions of the Review of the
Preliminary Master Plan ................................................................................................... 2
1. Review on demand forecast ......................................................................................... 2
ii. General ................................................................................................................... 2
iii. Assessment of Models Variables........................................................................... 3
1. GDP and Large Customers Approach .................................................................... 3
2. Population Growth, Number of Households and Electrification Rate ..................... 3
3. Impacts on the Tariff (Inflation, Generation Mix, and Quality of Supply) ................ 4
4. Other Parameters ................................................................................................... 5
a. Customers Energy Consumption Switch ................................................................ 5
b. 8.2.4.2 Energy Efficiency Initiatives ........................................................................ 5
c. 8.2.4.3 Busbar Demand and Network Losses ....................................................... 5
5. Assessment of Data Set Sources ................................................................................. 6
6. GDP vs GRDP .............................................................................................................. 6
7. Limitations of Supply .................................................................................................... 6
8. Statistical Tests and Sensitivity Analysis ...................................................................... 7
9. Tests ............................................................................................................................. 7
10. Monte Carlo Approach .............................................................................................. 7
11. Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 7
12. Analysis and comments of the Preliminary Generation and Transmission expansion
plan. 8
13. The current planning paradigm. ................................................................................ 9
14. Demand Forecast in Preliminary T&D Plan ............................................................ 11
15. Integration of Demand Forecast for Planning purposes ......................................... 11
16. Use of the Demand Forecast in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning ........................ 13
17. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects of the use of the Demand Forecast
13
18. Fuel price scenario in Preliminary T&D Plan .......................................................... 14
19. Fuel prices for Planning purposes .......................................................................... 14
20. Fuel prices in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning .................................................... 16
21. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects of fuel prices .............................. 16
22. Generation reliability in Preliminary T&D Plan ........................................................ 17
23. Generation reliability for Planning purposes ........................................................... 17
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Table of Figures
Table 1 : Quantity of transmission lines installed by year during the planning period ..... 106
Table 2: Km of line installed by year ................................................................................ 107
Table 3: Cost of the transmission lines - Millions of USD ................................................ 108
Table 4: Annual equivalent payment for the investments executed each year Million USD
(10% discount rate, 30 years of life cycle) ....................................................................... 109
Table 5: Annual O&M for the investments executed each year Million USD (3% of the
investment cost)............................................................................................................... 110
Table 6: Capacity of the transmission substations in the Master Plan ............................ 112
Table 7: Capacity of the sub-transmission substations in the Master Plan ..................... 114
Table 8: Summary of costs of Transmission Master Plan ............................................... 116
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VOLUME VI
FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR TRANSMISSION
MASTER PLAN SYSTEM OF SUMATERA STUDY
Final Report of Transmission Master Plan Study of Sumatera
System
6.1. The Consultancy Assistance
PLNE launched a competitive tender to hire an international consultant to provide the
FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR TRANSMISSION MASTER PLAN SYSTEM
OF SUMATERA STUDY.
In general terms the different Stages of the development of the Master Plan include the
participation of both parties: Local Experts (PLNs Staff and local consultants) and Foreign
Consultant:
a. Methodology of analysis.
b. Data and information available for the studies
c. Models implementation.
The following table shows the kind of participation expected to be done by each of the
participants in the development of the Master Plan.
No Description Local Foreign
1 Survey and Data Collection Do Comment
2 Demand Forecast (Simple E) Do Comment
3 Generation Planning (WASP) Do Comment
4 Transmission Planning (PSSE)
- Load Flow Do Comment
- Short Circuit Analysis Do Comment
- Transient Stability (rotor angle, voltage, frequency) Comment Do
- Small signal stability Comment Do
- Voltages stability (PV Curves) Comment Do
- Contingency analysis Comment Do
- Switching study (PSCAD) Comment Do
5 Grid Economic and reliability analysis Comment Do
6 Training:
- Demand Forecast Do Enrichment
- Generation Planning Do Enrichment
- Transmission Planning Do
- Grid Economic and reliability analysis Do
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AF-Mercados was selected for Foreign Consultancy Services for Transmission Master Plan
System of Sumatera Study.
The Final Report of transmission master plan study of Sumatera system includes:
Summary of the Analysis, comments and conclusions of the Review of the
Preliminary Master Plan submitted as deliverable 03 of the project.
Reliability analysis of the final transmission master plan
Analysis of the voltage stability of the power system for the proposed
transmission master plan
Analysis of the dynamic stability of the power system for the proposed
transmission master plan.
Review and final adjustments of the master plan for practical implementation.
Economic analysis of the final transmission master plan.
In that sense, the demand forecasting should be robust and reliable, based on updated data
and under reasonable scenarios whose probability of occurrence is high.
Data selected for the model should meet two main conditions: theoretical justification and
existence of numerical relationship and its significance.
The consultant has reviewed the model currently utilized for this purpose in Sumatra. It is a
standard Top Down approach model utilizing macroeconomic indicators and their future
outlooks through econometric methodology to pin point the inherent relationship between
these indicators and energy growth. Additionally, a Bottom Up approach is introduced for
Large Customers in the model, which will be commented on in the Section 1.1.2.1.
A strong point of the study is that the forecast is taking overall energy consumption including
regions which are served by isolated systems with future potential for connection to the
main grid.
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After careful revision, the Consultant has come up with comments and suggestions on the
following items which will be discussed in detail in the following sections of this review:
Large Customers
Network Losses
Limitations of Supply
Sources:
The Consultant has made an analysis of the Variables (in this section) and the Sources (in
section below) in order to ascertain their validity.
The Study should have analyzed the impact of the aforementioned large customers in the
used macroeconomic variables (GDP in particular) so that both effects could have been
separated.
number of households and the population are linked. However, the reality of Indonesia is
that it is a developing country and the ratio of inhabitants per household usually decreases
over the time with a larger increase in number of households with an important impact on
the overall consumption. There are fixed and variable uses of electricity. Variable use shall
be driven by the number of people whereas fixed use shall be driven by number of houses.
Hence, the Consultant considers that using number of electrified households (that involves
the population, the ratio of inhabitants per household and the electrification ratio) would be
a better approach.
In particular, the ratio of inhabitants per household, the behavior in the long run and
estimation are necessary to have an accurate extrapolation under Section 2.7.1
(assumptions) of the report. Actually, the results in the report suggest that at present, there
are 4.12 inhabitants per household while in 2035 there will be 4.13. Regardless of the fact
that this increase is not natural (according to country development expectations), the fact
that it is considered stable in the following 20 years requires at least a deeper analysis.
If the inflation was used for the calculation of prices, it should also be used for the GDP
growth and the same should have been included to estimate customers purchase power.
Hence the effect of inflation will be neutralized. It should also be neglected when preparing
the econometrical formula for the demand growth; i.e. if the inflation, as mentioned, was the
only driver of tariff change, it should be clear that there would be no effect on the regressed
variable as the effect of inflation would be neutralized. Therefore, we understand that
modifying the tariff by means of the inflation is not accurate in this study.
However, we understand there are other endogenous factors that affect the tariff level in
the following years. The mix of generation shall have an important impact on the electricity
price. In a 30-year projection, the generation costs (main driver of tariffs) shall definitely
change and thus the tariff level paid by the consumers will also be affected. We understand
that the study has not gone deep enough within this area in order to estimate how this
parameter shall behave in the future. Options that the Consultant considers are the
following:
If it is concluded that the generation mix shall be the same as today, the
study must have provided some clarifications of the average production
price/cost based on the estimations of fuel cost (in this particular case, Coal).
It is important to ascertain whether the government shall maintain same coal
price for electricity or it shall move with international market (which also
needs to be evaluated). The Monte Carlo approach for calculating the
probabilities of the outcomes of the model would also allow to evaluate
probability of changes in fuel cost.
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Likewise, investments in quality of supply shall have an impact in the final tariff. Whereas
estimations based on expansion should be linked to growth, those related to improvement
of the quality of the supply shall be borne by the consumers as an extra in the tariffs. This
latter factor may be marginal compared to the overall tariff but needs to be assessed within
the existing framework.
4. Other Parameters
Additionally, in a long forecasting like the one included in this study, other exogenous factors
need to be taken into account in the analysis (it may not be representative in the end but
the analysis should have been included), as for example the switch between energies.
In this regard, the study presents the real situation of transmission and distribution losses
without any estimation of its expected behavior in the following years. Considering that the
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The figure of 3% is still high for transmission network losses. Internationally, 1.5%-2% is
most appropriate in the grids. In addition, activities like reactive compensation, energy flows
optimization and reconditioning of the lines may easily help to reduce losses.
Considering that master plans are under development and that the study is for 30 years, a
reduction of 1% would be necessary to incorporate (and also include the correspondent
investments). At least, two scenarios would be necessary (business as usual and with loss
reduction activities).
The statement that the distribution losses are easier to lower is generally true but it is
necessary to dig into details. According to the data presented, distribution overall losses
would be around 7%. That value is among the best-in-class for distribution. Reductions of
this value are usually very costly and unless losses are located in one specific and focused
problem, it is financially not viable to go below that number. The Consultant do not see
much room for improvement in distribution losses.
6. GDP vs GRDP
There is no evidence for the assumption that the acceleration rate of the province's
economic growth will be in line with the national economic growth rate. It is not necessarily
true that Sumatra must follow the national GDP as there are important economical
differences between provinces.
Considering that there is information about past GDP and GRDP at least a correlation needs
to be done with the past data.
7. Limitations of Supply
In case that the load shedding was historically present in Sumatra, and that it also continues
to the date as stated in the report, this is a major problem for the preparation of the
econometric regression as the historical data is not reflecting the real electricity needs
unless it is corrected.
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If this is the case, then the historical data is likely to be insufficient to forecast the future
unless there are adjustments in the last years based on estimations or information on non-
supplied electricity.
The Consultant has not seen the excel model but currently, there is no methodology present
in the report for adjusting the data set based on the load shedding impacts in the past (this
can also be in the form of a new parameter).
11. Conclusions
The demand forecasting methodology used complies with international standards for this
kind of studies. It includes macroeconomic variables, econometric analysis and tests and
Monte Carlo approach to establish the probability of the results. However, a deeper analysis
of how the assumptions are taken and the data sets utilized show that there are some
important gaps that can affect the accuracy of the final values provided. As an example, we
can present the mismatch between GDP and regional GDP, the lack of consideration of the
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inhabitants per household, inexistence of estimation of future generation costs within the
tariff future estimation (and the inaccurate use of the inflation), no consideration of future
new generation technologies, etc.
Short term estimations may be valid as this industry has a strong inertia and it is unlikely
that major changes occur in the main parameters within the following 2 or 3 years. However,
the Consultant thinks that there is a high probability that the final values shown for the future
long run demand may be misleading. A more accurate analysis is necessary to ensure a
more accurate prediction from year 5 onwards.
On the other hand, execution of planning is not a static exercise to be established once and
repeated along the years, planning is a dynamic discipline which evolution considers among
others the integration of the technology development, the business model in place of the
power system under study as well as the social and economic demands and constraints.
Nowadays the Master Planners are facing a challenging and dynamic framework of analysis
at the time that the economic and financial effectiveness of their decision is increasing the
importance.
The following diagram shows the evolution of the Planning paradigm of the las decade and
the challenges for the planners.
In order to select the key aspects to be analyzed the following table shows the screening of
selection:
Aspect Included in Interim Report Impact in the Master Plan
Economic vs financial evaluation of Differentiation between financial and Medium. (regulatory efficiency and
private participation. economic costs is a must in master market maturity is a reasonable
planning assumption in planning).
Foreseen Generation reliability. Implemented with a very conservative Important (prevent over investments
margin of reserve in all the horizon of in the long term help the economic
study. evaluation of the short and mid-term
decisions)
Renewable Energy and Storage Partially Included. Impact of Medium-low. The market is not able to
Devices integration of relevant participation of integrate these technologies,
non-conventional RE (solar and wind) governmental programs may displace
shall be analyzed. conventional generation, but very often
the transmission grid remain in similar
needs because increase requirements
of redundancy and generation reserve.
Distributed and intermittent Non-Included. The main facilities and Low. For master Planning, without an
Generation investments remain more or less immediate program of integration of
stable but operative requirements will intermittent generation the impact of
increase. the intermittent generation may be
absorbed in strong requirement for the
frequency and voltage stability.
Pattern of use of the Transmission Non-Included. Modern and dense Low: Sumatra transmission system
Grid transmission system has change their will remind in the conventional
paradigm of transfer of energy long paradigm at least for the short-term
distances into a paradigm of ensure and mid-term.
the regional balance of energy and
support the ancillary services and
reserve and redundancies among the
regions.
From the previous table the Consultant has selected the following key aspects as priorities
in the analysis of the Preliminary Master Plan:
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Foreseen Generation reliability. Implemented with a very conservative Important (prevent over investments
margin of reserve in all the horizon of in the long term help the economic
study. evaluation of the short and mid-term
decisions)
Economic vs financial evaluation of Differentiation between financial and Medium. (regulatory efficiency and
private participation. economic costs is a must in master market maturity is a reasonable
planning assumption in planning).
In this chapter, we are addressing the integration of the demand forecast into the planning
of the transmission and generation system; we will review the way the planning method is
using the demand forecast, the current implementation and the opportunities to improve this
subject of the Master Planning exercise.
Clearly the purpose of the planning of G&T is to ensure the effective and efficient supply of
the demand along all the horizon of study. So, the basic assumption is that the planer just
must define enough facilities to cover the forecast demand for each period. The reality is
more complex than this, the demand must be satisfied but there are some additional
considerations to be considered, including but not limited to:
Very often, as the demand becomes big and sophisticated, part of the demand is
supplied by alternatives to the power system. For example, the industrial sector
integrates processes of production that aim to make efficient self/co-generation to
supply their demand partially, it is a usual practice in large industries with flat load
curve, so the impact in the needs for base generation changes. In the residential
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sector the integration self-generation by roof solar panels depends on the policy of
the state about the integration of RE, and in the commercial sector big shopping
centers and financial institutions tend to integrate distributed generation for self-
consumption as part of their corporative brand.
We should make clear that we are not considering the structural change of the
demand in this section, which impacts the forecast of the demand, but the way to
supply this demand once it has changed.
Following with the previous point it is required to consider that even though along
the period of study a bigger fraction of the demand will become self-supplied the
customers will keep depending on the power system for their supply under
contingency.
As consequence of this initial two point the master planner shall consider a realistic
scenario of switching of part of the demand into self-supplied demand but
considering the sufficiency of the system to eventual supply this demand.
The prevision of the allocation of the future demand is a key aspect to define the
transmission needs.
HV Level: From an HV level standpoint (500 and 220 KV) the purpose of the system
is the transfer of big blocks of energy between regions, a detailed Spatial Load
Forecasting (SLF) is not required (this level of detail is required for Distribution
planning). At this level the demand growth must be foreseen in zonal terms. The
planner must be able to balance the big energy flows: Split of existing corridors,
reinforcement of redundancies and injections and withdrawal of energy to the High
voltage system.
Sub-Transmission Level: For sub transmission level the purpose is oriented to the
delivery of the capacity instead to the transfer of big blocks of energy, at this level
at least a pattern of evolution of demand density around the substations is required
to coordinate the geographic allocation of the demand with the defined sub-
transmission facilities.
It is important to consider that the incorporation of more than two or three demand
growing scenarios in the planning exercise may introduce confusion to the final
analysis, the main purpose of the alternative scenarios is to define a range to limit
the uncertainty about the demand for planning purposes.
1) For the definition of the preliminary master plan there was considered one scenario
of demand forecasting.
5) The characterization of the zonal and local pattern of demand growth is weak and
not clear.
2) Review the assumptions in change on the behavior of the demand and their impact
on the generation and transmission system in specific:
The Optimal mix of generation technologies depends on the investment cost of the plants
and the variable cost of generate the electricity. The following graph is taken from the Interim
Report of the preliminary master plan.
Figure 2: Screening curve of Technology mix
1400
SCREENING CURVES
PLTU Subcritical (400 MW)
1200
PLTU Supercritical (600 MW)
PLTU USC (1000 MW)
PLTGU (250 MW)
1000
Levelized Cost [$/kW-yr]
600
400
200
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unit Capacity Factor [%]
This graph correctly supports a selection of the kind of technology that must be implemented
subject to its expected operation time. The appropriate mix depends on the pattern of the
load curve as represented in the following exhibits:
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The conceptual aspects of the selection of technology and their optimal mix are
clear, but in the master planning exercise there are additional factors of complexity
that demand an additional effort to the planner.
1) The screening curve is dynamic if the price of fuels change along the horizon of
study.
2) The shape of the demand curve may change along the study period.
3) The appropriate mix depends on the average of the present value of the contribution
of each technology in each period of study.
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4) The selection of the appropriate contribution of each technology and the time of
installation in the master planning exercise shall consider the expected evolution of
the price of fuels.
5) Future price of fuels is not a deterministic scenario, its incertitude shall be
incorporated by alternative scenarios of fuel price.
1) The Prices of fuels are considered fixed for all the period of study.
2) No consideration in regard to the variation of prices of fuel during the study period
and their incertitude is included in the preliminary plan.
3) A basic analysis of availability and sources/origin of the fuel is presented in the
report, but the link of this study with the different markets of fuel trading and mix of
origin is not clear.
4) The fuels cost in the existing plants consider a very complex differentiation pattern
among plants, it is not clear the structure of this difference.
5) The similarity of the prices of fuel for expansion plants contrast with the complex
differentiation of prices of fuel in the existing plants. (Seems a break of the fuel
market between existing and future)
6) Existing plants of same technology and fuel appears with a very high Price of fuel,
most probably reflexing a financial price instead of an economic cost. (The
appropriateness of this implementation depends on whether the fuel is imported or
national).
1) Perform a deeper analysis of forecasting fuel origin, market and prices including a
reference scenario and alternative scenarios to characterize the future incertitude
on the prices.
2) Repeat the WASP optimization with sensitivities on fuel prices in order to assess the
structural impact of the variation of the price on the development of the generation
system.
1) The outage rate decrease the effective generation capacity in the power system and
the capability of attend the demand.
2) The generation system shall be capable to supply the demand even during a
scenery of generation contingency (forced outage) of generation plants.
3) The LOLP use to be defined as part of the planning framework as a signal of the
reliability required by the society (regulator & customers).
4) Almost always the achievement of the LOLP target demand the installation of
additional generation capacity and consequently more cost tan the required for the
basic balance between supply and load shedding.
5) The transmission system shall be able to conduct in safe conditions the flows of
energy even on generation contingency. (forced outage).
6) The master planner shall:
a. characterize appropriately the reliability of the generation plants, and
b. introduce the expansion rules to ensure enough spare generation capacity
to compensate the contingencies.
5) As a consequence of the big spare capacity the values of LOLP becomes too small
than the target reliability.
6) The LOLP lower than the target addresses an over investment of generation
capacity regarding the parameters of the planning framework (likely an inefficient
use of resources).
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8) The transmission plan not assess its capability and performance under generation
outages.
There are also some inconveniences linked to the integration of RE in the power
system, intermittent generation demands to the PS:
Local Impact
o Wave quality
Global impact
o Transient stability
o Fault-ride-through capability
System recovery after fault
Voltage control
Frequency-power regulation
Influence on the generation schedules
o Forecast errors =>higher use of balancing markets and ancillary services
o Replaces other generators => reduction of ancillary resources
o Distributed generation => more difficult operation of the system
Environmental policy is there to compensate what the market is not able to reflect about
pollution and environmental.
The following figure shows that the private costs the marginal social costs and
benefits use to converge in a point of more les participation of the RE than the
convergence of the social costs and benefits.
The RE integration policy aims to compensate this discrepancy between the efficient
market and the efficient economy. This is a result of the high component of
externalities in both costs and benefits regarding the integration of RE in the power
system.
The social cost and benefits includes all the aspects and externalities than the
private agents are not considering in their decisions.
Sonner than later the society and the regulators will ask for the appropriate
integration of the RE in the PS trying to achieve the point that maximize the social
benefit and minimizing the impact or distortion of the market performance.
1) No cost for the CO2 and other pollution factors is considering within the operative
plants of conventional generation.
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2) Is not clear the fraction of forced Geothermic and hydro generation as part of the
environmental and RE integration policy. (7.233 MW hydro and 9.537 MW Geo)
4) IT Is not clear the over cost of the proposed investment plan of RE against the
market efficient scenario.
2) Review the generation mix including the cost of CO2 in the variable cost of
generation.
4) Define specific decision gates regarding the RE integration policy for review the G&T
Master Plan.
This mistake has been increased since the energy market and private participation
was located in the center of the PS development.
Key elements for understanding the planning paradigm are the following:
So, the participation of the private initiatives in the development of the power sector
aims to contribute to the development of an economic efficient development.
To achieve this target, the private participation shall be incentivized but limited to
those sectors in which their financial success complement the economic efficiency
of the power sector.
Trading mechanisms as PPAs, single buyer, electricity market etc., are different
grades of sophistication in the participation of private entities. But if the incentives
and regulation are correct, the trend shall lead to the economic optimal of the power
system.
1) It is no clear that the variable cost of the existing plants is reflecting their
economic costs (shadow prices) instead of the commercial agreement in force.
2) Existing plants with same technology and fuel but with a very different
operative cost seems the integration of commercial prices in the model instead
of economic prices.
The following are some of the relevant combinations of parameters that the
Consultant found in the review of the Preliminary Expansion Plan:
As mentioned, the mater planning includes the consideration of in whish regime the
forecasted demand will be supply.
It is a relevant impact on the generation mix regarding the fraction of the demand
that will be self-supply in this case, clearly the capacity of generation must change
this part of the demand to be supply by peak plants tan for base generation, due
that the system will continue supporting this customer but just in contingency or
sporadic periods of time.
explained previously, but also the performance and expansion needs of the
transmission system.
The implemented scenario and incertitude on fuel cost drives the efficient generation
mix as well as the nodal marginal cost that drives the expansion of the transmission
network.
Un realistic scenario of fuel cost implemented in the master planning results in:
1) Unrealistic operative cost and marginal cost of the energy in both the system and
local/nodal level.
2) Fault in the economic evaluation of the proposed generation plants: The final
evaluation and the economic efficiency of a generation plant is the opportunity of its
energy at the marginal cost, if the marginal cost is wrong the economic and financial
justification and evaluation is wrong.
3) Fault in economic evaluation of the proposed transmission facilities; The final
evaluation and the economic efficiency of a transmission facility is the opportunity
of its energy transferred at the difference of marginal cost in its terminals, if the
marginal cost is wrong the economic and financial justification and evaluation is
wrong.
1) Estimate the optimal technological mix including the effective generation capacity of
each plant, and the equivalent increase of CAEX per technology by effective
capacity.
2) Evaluate the needs of additional peak generation in order to ensure the supply of
the peak demand according to the required security parameters (LOLP).
3) An allocation of generation more than enough to supply the demand and ensure
delivery during outages produce:
a. and over offer of generation and decreasing of the energy prices,
b. brings financial risk to the sector and
c. over costs to the client because economic inefficiencies.
4) Effect on transmission network for over investments in generation may cause one
of the two following scenarios:
a. Increase of the needs of transfer energy because the surplus of generation
in a region must be transfer to the rest of the system. (over cost in
transmission expansion)
b. Decrease of transmission needs because all the regions have generation
surplus so the needs of transfer energy among the region decrease.
The incorporation of targets of carbon and pollution in the have social and economic
benefits that go further to the power sector, but:
1) Affect the performance of the operation and cost of the system impacting the
financial aspects of the expansion plan.
a. Hydro power use to have a level of manageability, under assumption of
economic behavior they are not impacting the financial pattern of the other
plants of the system.
b. Wind, solar and other intermittent/non-manageable sources impact the
financial pattern of the other plants of the system. The immediate effect is a
switching of part of the base generation onto peak generation.
2) Some of the RE plants are economic-efficient even in the conventional and private
paradigm of evaluation, so not all the RE projects may be considered as carbon
mitigation projects.
1) the coal technology covers the big part of the expansion in generation
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2) Up to the year 2025 the gas technology is supporting the supply of the demand in
the peak.
3) After 2025, the gas technology contribution becomes systematically lower about its
contribution in the peak, it is even lower or null its contribution during non-peak load.
The simulations made by the consultant show that the utilization factor of the gas generators
is bigger than 20% up to 2025. But after that the participation is marginal.
The following diagrams show the participation of the gas plants during the generation study
and the correspondent marginal cost of the system foreseen for the study period.
Finally, the following graph shows the marginal contribution of the CCGT plants to the
supply of the total energy of the system during the studied period.
It seems that the generation plan considers a very conservative margin for reserve for the
foreseen needs of the system.
The installed capacity is 20 GW lower than the proposed expansion and the contribution of
the coal technology is also about 20 GW less.
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The previous graph shows that the marginal costs of the power system are systematically
between the cost of the combined cycle and the gas turbine, this is a signal of contribution
of all the technologies to the supply.
The following graph shows that the gas plants effectively participate in a relevant part in the
generation of energy.
Using this ideal expansion mix as a reference of comparison is it possible to review the
results of other expansion alternatives more realistic in order to compare the results with
the expansion proposed in the preliminary expansion plan of Sumatra.
The following diagram show that, as expected, that the total installed capacity is the same
than the proposal of the preliminary plan, but the technical mix increase the participation of
the natural gas technologies.
In the other side, it is worthy to note the proposed capacity of coal remain similar than the
proposed in the ideal case and lower than in the Preliminary Plan.
Figure 11: Review of generation MIX - Same Expansion Margin
The result of the previous graph shows that the technical mix keep the same participation
of the Gas technologies, but replace 1000 MW of coal plants by geothermal
The results of this expansion scenario present an increase of the participation of the coal in
the generation MIX up to the gas generation produce the marginal equilibrium
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Figure 13: Generation Mix including Fuel prices increment along the study period
70000
60000
50000
40000
MW
30000
20000
10000
0
Base Case Case 1 Case 1 AP Case 1 + Emi Case 1 AP Dec
Fuel
Thera are three main aspects in the definition of the planning framework of a Transmission
Master Plan:
In the following section will be analyzed each of these aspects included for each of them:
Explanation of each of the subjects and its implications in the definition of the
transmission master plan.
Characterization of the way each of the aspects has been considered in the
Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra.
The selection of one of the approaches is not trivial, in general the selection depends on
the structure of the Power system under study as follows:
Case 1: Long distances, dense but separated loads points: Transmission and
generation development together, each new facility could change decisions regarded both
generation and transmission development.
New plants and lines are defined to meet zone demand and economically provide
energy exchanges among the system zones.
New lines are decided to transfer energy between zones, improve the
complementarities in resources, economies of scale and save expensive resources
up to the level of economic efficiency.
New lines to avoid bottlenecks and minimize the differences in nodal prices.
The selection of one of other method defines the difference between the optimization of the
power system as a whole or the optimization of the generation system and definition of the
transmission system to complement the generation plan.
Since the theoretical point of view the optimization of G&T aims to get an optimal expansion
but the optimization of the G and complement with the transmission is only able to achieve
a suboptimal expansion.
In the practices the Optimal expansion of the G&T together is not possible due to the
characteristics of the system, the characteristics of the expansion units and the dimension
of the mathematical problem:
1) The characteristics of the system: The regular approach is that two or more
systems join into one bigger in order to complement each to the other. But systems
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with big differences among regions because either the size of the systems or
technical characteristics of generation technologies or adaptation of the network to
the demand not produce the complementation between systems but the domination
of one system over the second.
Very often the optimization program dismisses the local performance of each of the
regions against the improvement of the optimal global but in case of one system
dominating the other the global indicators improve because the improvement of the
performance of the principal region but decreasing the indicators of the dominated
region.
Is in the responsibility of the Planner and his experience the implementation of some
constraints or verifications during the planning process in order to ensure that none
of the region is acting as a dominant region over other.
Decisions of very spall plants or lines regarding the size of the system use to be sub
optimal results in the accuracy gap of the program instead of real optimal decisions.
The practical implications of these factors are that the Planning Process keep being in the
responsibilities and expertise of the planner and whatever available computational tool is
an additional support for his work. But despite the promises of amazing advance in IT
technology in the past decade, nowadays the criteria still is that the planner is recovering
the position of driving the plan.
1) PLNE has not computational tools to perform the integral G&T expansion
optimization, so as a technical constraint the used approach is appropriate.
2) In the performed analysis, the definition of the EHV backbone seems defined as an
input, there is no clear explanation of the process and method of decision of the
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4) The decision of expansion facilities depends of the yearly analysis of power flows,
is not clear that each facility was decided per a multi-year criteria.
5) The expansion based on a yearly base dismiss the opportunity of take advantage of
the scale and network economies very relevant in transmission network.
1) The new transmission line of 500 kV will become since the beginning the
backbone of the transmission corridor in the system.
4) In the practice, there is a parallel system between the 500 KV and 275 KV
transmission corridors.
5) The infrastructures of 150 kV level becomes sub transmission elements mainly for
delivery purposes than for transfer energy.
1) It is not clear if in addition to the new line at 500 kV, the renovation and upgrade of
220 KV facilities to 500 KV has been studied as alternative to reinforce the new
500 kV.
2) At least partial split of the transmission line of 500kV into parallel lines nay be
considered.
1) The consumption of the existing capacity of a substation use to be defined for the
achievement of a percentage of the installed capacity (around 75%).
2) Once consumed the spare capacity of a substation, it is required to decide the way
to supply the foreseen needs of capacity exhausted in the existing substation.
There are two main alternatives:
b. Build a new substation that relax the transmission system in the zone.
1) It is not clear if the alternative of reallocate the load to other substations has been
analyzed.
2) In Transmission and sub transmission in big cities the transform capacity has double
function, deliver the load to the MV level and, support the HV level and act as back
up in case of fault of 500 kV or 250 kV lines. So the expansion shall be also analyzed
for change energy transfer among voltage levels.
3) The characterization of the saturation curve of the substations and the evolution of
the load density in the substation areas is not considered to decide the size and
location of the new substations.
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2) The renovation and/or upgrade the voltage level of the current 275 substations in
the corridor at 275 kV may be analyzed to review the topology of the proposed 500
KV system.
The characterization of the load saturation curve of the transmission and sub transmission
substations is a key factor for decision on investment at sub transmission level.
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2) Faults in the 5 more critical lines in 275 kV, the consultant simulated faults in all
the 275 kV lines of the backbone of the energy corridors.
2. Period up to 2021:
According to the performed analysis for the period up to the year 2021 the system is able
to support the N-1 condition with specific violations of limits under singular contingencies.
In specific, during the year 2019, the corridor South-North at 275 kV is the component of
the system that shows sensitive overloads as follows:
1) In case of the fault of one of the circuits of the double circuit line between the
nodes 26002 [PSDEM 275] TO BUS 26003 [SRULA 275] the circuit that continues
in operation will present an overload of 8.3%.
2) In case of the fault of one of the circuits of the double circuit line between the
nodes 26002 [PSDEM 275] TO BUS 36000 [PYKBH 275] the circuit that continues
in operation will present an overload of 4.3%.
For the year 2020, no relevant overloads have been detected in the system of the analyzed
contingencies.
It is the criteria of the Consultant that for planning purposes this result is satisfactory due to:
In operative practices the operator has more resources for balance the system
than those simulated and
It is foreseen that in the rest of the year the system operates in a more relaxed
point and bigger margin to reconduct the energy flows in case of contingency
without overload of the system elements.
The integration of the 500kV corridor is demanding a sophisticated operation scheme. The
consultant couldnt find an operative point able to support all the required contingencies
without relevant violation of the operative limits.
Considering the installation of the line reactors proposed by the local team it was found that
only three elements of the systems are subject to overloads during this period as follows:
2) Only the transformers of three substations shown any overload during this period.
Transformers:
Considering that the overload is not systematic, only appears in one single
contingency case among cents of analyzed cases, and this case occurs
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during the yearly peak load supply, it is the opinion of the Consultant that no
review of the size and configuration of the substation is needed and just a
recommendation of increase of the running reserve during the peak load
operation is suitable in order to reorganize the flows of energy in case of fault
and quickly overcome a transitory overload of the operative transformer in
case of the fault of the twin transformer in the substation.
1) Consider a corridor of 500 kV along the west side of the power system.
(Double circuit). The parallel of two corridors of 500 kV along the island becomes
the backbone of the transmission system of the island.
3) The following figure shows the proposed architecture of the double corridor
scheme.
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Figure 14: Main architecture of the alternative 500 and 275 kV backbone
The simulations of contingency analysis show neither overload nor voltage problems in case
of single fault in the system.
Clearly the double corridor represents a stronger transmission configuration than the
proposal of the base case.
After 2025, the clear definition of the direction of the load flows from south to north of the
island, either in normal operation and under contingency, facilitate the definition of a safe
operative point.
The expansion of generation spread along the power system increase the robustness of the
Power System and its capabilities of reconduct the power flows without overloads in the
system or load shedding.
The simulations of contingency analysis shown neither overload nor voltage problems in
case of single fault in the system.
In the opinion of the Consultant minor violations of the limits are results of mistakes in the
implementation values of the model instead of structural deficiencies of the system, the
modeling must be fine-tuning for more detailed analysis.
The simulations of contingency analysis shown neither overload nor voltage problems in
case of single fault in the system.
In the opinion of the Consultant minor violations of the limits are results of mistakes in the
implementation values of the model instead of structural deficiencies of the system, the
modeling must be fine-tuning for more detailed analysis.
9. Beyond 2030:
The available model of the power system for the years after 2030 includes relevant
deficiencies in the steady state model. These deficiencies of the model prevented the
consecution of an operative point 100% safe. Some alternatives of dispatch shown better
performance but none of these fully acceptable under the operative criteria.
It is the opinion of the Consultant that a detailed review of the implemented model is required
in order to objective evaluate the robustness of the system regarding the simple fault.
6.5. Analysis of the voltage stability of the power system for the
proposed transmission master plan
1. Performed analysis:
The voltage stability is the capacity of the power system of maintain the voltage levels
stables after a disturbance in a stable operative mode.
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The instability may appear as a progressive increase or decrease of voltage in some of the
system busses. For the effective control of the voltage level in order to inject or retire
reactive power aiming to control of the voltage in all the nodes of the system.
The voltage collapse is the process in which the sequence of events following the voltage
instability drives a black out of the system or abnormal low levels of voltage in a part of the
system.
Some of the factors that cause the voltage instability are the follow:
The consultant was required to assess voltage stability of the system in the proposed
scenario of expansion. The assessment will be done by mean of the PV curve analysis of
the power system along the expansion period.
2. Period up to 2021:
According to the performed analysis for the period up to the year 2021 the system Increases
its voltage stability during the period due to the increasing of the generation resources and
the new investments in transmission.
The simulations show that the power system is able to find a stable operative point far away
of the collapse point, with a margin of increase the power supply in around 500 MW in 2017
and 800 MW in 2020 before than enter in the situation of collapse of voltage.
PV Curve - 2017
1.010
1.000
0.990
0.980
Voltage (P.U)
0.970
0.960
0.950
0.940
0.930
0.920
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Incremental MW
The simulations show that in 2025 the power system is able to operate in a point far away
of the collapse point, with a margin of increase the power supply in around 3500 MW before
than enter in the situation of collapse of voltage.
According to the performed analysis for the period 2022 to 2025 the system Increases its
voltage stability.
The simulations show that in 2025 the power system is able to operate in a point far away
of the collapse point, with a margin of increase the power supply in around 4500 MW before
than enter in the situation of collapse of voltage.
The following figure illustrates the described situation, the reader may note that the
simulations show an operative margin of more than 14000 MW before than enter in the
zone of collapse of voltage, this is a nonrealistic situation and only address that the system
is very robust regarding voltage stability.
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7. Beyond 2030:
The available model of the power system for the years after 2030 includes relevant
deficiencies in the steady state model. These deficiencies of the model prevented the
consecution of an operative point stable to performed the voltage stability analysis.
It is the opinion of the Consultant that a detailed review of the implemented model is required
in order to objective evaluate the robustness of the system regarding the voltage stability.
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6.6. Analysis of the dynamic stability of the power system for the proposed
transmission master plan.
1. Performed analysis:
The dynamic stability is the capacity of the power system of recover the stability of voltage
and frequency after a disturbance that happens in a stable operative mode.
The dynamic instability may appear after relevant disturbance in the system, very often a
fault of a relevant line in the system or the outage of a big generator may cause a
disturbance in the system that demand the operation of the elements of control of stability.
For the effective control of the stability the operation of the governors of the generators in
order to immediately recover the balance between primary and electrical energy and drive
back the system to the standard operative levels of frequency and voltage.
The consultant was required to analyze the dynamic stability of the power system during
the expansion period.
In order to maintain the effort and time of the analysis according to the dead line and
consultancy resources of the project, there was agreed the following criteria as frame of this
study.
1) The analysis will be focused in the stability of frequency and voltage of the power
system.
a. The dynamic model of the generators will be specific per technology, and
selected among the catalogue of the PSSE software.
d. There will be set a minimum 10% of spinning reserve in each of the plants
in operation for purposes of operative reserve.
a. The simulations will be done for the peak load of the year.
b. Faults in, in 500 kV shall include the critical fault close to the node
47001 Perawan
c. Fault in the 275 kV shall include the critical fault close to the node 2601
Galang Bindai
4) The switching sequence for the transitory analysis will consider the following
cleaning sequences:
ii. Fault isolation by the opening of the line in both sides at T <= 90
ms at 500 kV or 100 ms at 275 kV.
ii. Opening of the CB of the line at the side of the fault at T <= 90
ms at 500 kV or 100 ms at 275 kV.
iii. Opening of the CB of the line at the second side of the line, and
isolation of the fault, T <= To be decided at 500 kV and 275 kV.
iv. Reclose of the line at T 370 msg at 500 kV or 500 msg at 275
kV after the beginning of the fault.
2. Period up to 2021:
Fault 275kV line:
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with appropriate operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The voltages of the system return to the operative limits almost immediatelly.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
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The voltages of the system return to the operative limits almost immediatelly.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical generator in the system.
The angle of the machines achiev a diferent but stable operative mode.
Conclusion:
Is the opinion of the Consultant that for the short/mid-term the current program of
investments under implementation allow the operation of the system in a stable point
regarding the dynamic stability
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 500 kV with appropriate operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
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The electrical angle of the generators present differnet levels of transitory perturbance but
all of theme recover a stable operative mode.
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The voltage levels present a shots temporal fluctuation but the system recover the volatage
levels in araund three seconds.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 500 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
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The frequency keeps within the operative limits along the occurrence of the disturbance.
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The electrical angle of the generators present differnet levels of transitory perturbance but
all of theme recover a stable operative mode.
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The voltage levels present a shots temporal fluctuation but the system recover the volatage
levels in araund three seconds.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with appropriate operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
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The angles of the generators show certain level of transitory disturbance but their fluctuation
is small and after few seconds recover their stability.
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The voltage of the nodes suffer a very limited disturbance during few seconds but recover
the stability, the fluctuation during the disturbance is almost negligible.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
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The angles of the generators show certain level of transitory disturbance but their fluctuation
is small and after few seconds recover their stability.
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The voltage of the nodes suffers a very limited disturbance during few seconds but recover
the stability, the fluctuation during the disturbance is almost negligible.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical generator in the system.
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The outage of the critical generator of the system produce an smaal decrease of the
frequency almost negligible in practivcal terms.
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The electrical angle of the generators remains stable after the fault of the generator and
only a limited disturbance and change of operative point is appreciated in some of the
machines.
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The disturbance in the voltage level caused by the outage of the critical machine of the
system is almost negligible.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 500 kV with correct operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency of the system suffers a limited variation during the disturbace and recovers
the reference value very softly.
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The electrical angles of the machines show diferent levels of fluctuation during the
disturbance, even the relevant range of the fluctuarion in some machines all of them recover
a stable operative state after few seconds.
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The disturbance in the voltage level caused by the fault in the critical 500 kV line of the
system is sensible during a short transitory period of around one second and after that
remains very limited.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 500 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
It is noted that the frequency of the system remains close to the reference during the
disturbance.
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Some machines of the system suffer a relevant fluctuation of the operative angle, eventhoug
all the machines recover after 5 seconds a stable operative angle.
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The disturbance in the voltage level caused by the fault in the critical 500 kV line of the
system is sensible during a short transitory period of around one second and after that
remains very limited.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with correct operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency remains close the reference value during the disturbance and recover the
reference after two seconds.
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The electric angle of some the generators suffers diferent level of fluctuation,
some of theme present a ranve of variation around 10 degrees during the
the disturbance.
All the generators recover an stable aopartive angle after 5 second of the
beginning of the disturbance.
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The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The variation in the frequency remains close the reference value during the disturvance,
and recovers the efeence value after three seconds of the occurrence of the fault.
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In this case the range of the fluctuations becomes relevant during the initial 5 seconds after
the occurrence of the fault, some of theme reach an amplitude of 10 degrees in the variation.
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The machines finaly become stable and all of theme recover a steady opartive point.
The voltage level remains within the operative margin and the fluctuation of the voltage is
very smal during the disturbance.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical generator in the system.
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The outage of the critical generator of the system cause a small droop of the frequency
almost negligible for practical aspects.
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The electrical angle of the generators of the system suffer a moderated fluctuation during
the disturbance. All of the generators recover an stable operative point after three seconds
of the fult.
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The fluctuation of the voltage level is very limited and the final state shows a small droop
after the disturbance, almost negligible for practical aspects.
6. Conclusion:
1) According to the simulations the implementation of the single corridor of 500
kV along the island present a dynamic performance stable.
4) It must be notted that the simulations represent the operation of the system
during yearly peak load, it is expected that the operation out of peak provide
more flexibility to the operator in order to improve the stability of the system.
It is relevant to underline that in the opinion of the Consultant the unstability of the model
does not provide enough data to refuse the proposed expansion plan, our opinion is that
the problem is regarding the implementation of the model.
The Consultant performed a detail review of the model and after corrections achieved a
stable model for the alternative expansion case (Double corridor of 500 kV implemented in
the west and east side of the island).
The following figures illustrate the performance of the system under the analysied faults.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 500 kV with correct operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency keeps close to the reference value during the disturbance.
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The machines suffer a relevant change in their operative point after the occurrence of the
disturbance. The range of variation of the angle is in the level of 20/30 degrees.
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Some of the machines present strong fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
final operative point after the clearance of the fault.
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Even that during the duration of the disturbance the voltage level remains between the
operative limits, the voltage level of the system suffers a significative fluctuation during the
initial five seconds of the disturbance.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 500 kV with fault in the operation of the remote trigger to clear the fault.
The frequency remains close to the reference value during the disturbance and recover the
stable operation after two seconds the occurrence of the fault.
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The machines sufer a relevant change in their operative point after the occurrence of the
disturbance. The range of variation of the angle is in the level of 20/30 degrees.
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Some of the machines present strong fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
final operative point after the clearance of the fault.
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Even that during the duration of the disturbance the voltage level remains between the
operative limits, the voltage level of the system suffers a significative fluctuation during the
initial five seconds of the disturbance.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with correct operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency remains close to the reference value during the disturbance and recovers
the reference value after 1.5 seconds of the fault.
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The machines sufer a relevant change in their operative point after the occurrence of the
disturbance. The range of variation of the angle is in the level of 20/30 degrees.
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Some of the machines present moderate fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
final operative point after the clearance of the fault.
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Even that during the duration of the disturbance the voltage level remains between the
operative limits, the voltage level of the system suffers a significative fluctuation during the
initial five seconds of the disturbance.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency remains close to the reference value during the disturbance and recovers
the reference value after 1.5 seconds of the fault.
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The machines sufer a relevant change in their operative point after the occurrence of the
disturbance. The range of variation of the angle is in the level of 20/30 degrees.
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Some of the machines present moderate fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
final operative point after the clearance of the fault.
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Even that during the duration of the disturbance the voltage level remains between the
operative limits, the voltage level of the system suffers a significative fluctuation during the
initial five seconds of the disturbance.
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical generator in the system.
The outage of the critical generator of the system cause a small droop of the frequency
almost negligible for practical aspects.
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The electrical angle of the generators of the system suffer a moderated fluctuation during
the disturbance. All of the generators recover a stable operative point after five seconds of
the fult.
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The fluctuation of the voltage level is very limited and the final state shows a similar voltage
after the disturbance.
8. Beyond 2030:
The available model of the power system for the years after 2030 includes relevant
deficiencies in the steady state model. This deficiencies of the model prevented the
consecution of an operative point stable to performed the frequency stability analysis.
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It is the opinion of the Consultant that a detailed review of the implemented model is required
in order to objective evaluate the robustness of the system regarding the frquency stability.
Conclusions:
The simulations show that:
1) The system planned for the period 2026 to 2030 is very sensible in its
dynamic performance regarding switching and faults.
3) It is clear that the single corridor has strong constraints for reliability and
dynamic performance.
The economic analysis of the transmission master plan aims to assess the economic cost
of the proposed investments for:
1) The effective application of the financial resources to the power system during the
planning period.
2) The balance of the costs and benefits of the proposed investments.
3) The rationale of the proposed investment in the context of the power system costs.
In this section the Consultant aims to clarify the mentioned aspects and perform the
correspondent analysis for the proposed transmission master plan of the Sumatra Power
System.
So the investments have been defined, based I their technical contribution to the well
performance of the current and future system and also considering their cost, based on this
assumption is time to clarify the effective participation of the financial resources on the
development of the Power system during the planning period.
The main discrepancy between the two concepts is clear if we consider the two border side
of the analysis.
In this explanation we focus the attention in the investment to be made during the last period
of the planning horizon.
It is clear that very often the last period of planning horizon includes the installation of
relevant facilities, maybe big generation plants or transmission lines. These facilities are
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costly and has to be afforded during the planning period even by direct resources or by a
financial loan.
The reader must be aware that even that the total of the cost of the facilities is used during
the planning horizon (the last period) there is no point in allocate the total of this cost as
economic contribution to the PS development during period of analysis.
It is clear that is not fare for the evaluation of cost benefits of this final investments compare
the total investment cost against their technical contribution during only one period of time
(one year or season).
Only one fraction of the cost of the final investments has to be balanced with their use during
the planning horizon. There are different approaches for the estimation of the fraction to be
used, in other section we will explain the implemented in the analysis.
In this explanation we focus our attention in the assumption that during the first period of
the horizon there are no new investments decided. (firs season or year)
This situation is not strange because very often there is an investment program in place
with decided facilities. So the performance of the power system during the initial period is
technically appropriate but all the investments has been done in the past.
It is clear that in the balance of cost benefits of the planning if not fare to consider the use
of the facilities afforded in the past but no fraction of their cost. Clearly the benefits of the
appropriate operation of the Power System happens thanks to the investments made in the
past.
The inclusion of a fraction of the past investment cost as part of the effective investment
cost during the planning period is a controversial aspect for both, the inclusion of this cost
itself and the method of estimation.
The discussion of the portion of the past cost considered for the planning horizon is the
subject of the next section.
There are different approaches to estimate the fraction of the cost of one investment
decided and executed during the planning horizon to the expansion plan. Among of
theme the following are the more used.
i. Proportional of the expected life cycle: In this case the concept is split
the net cost in equivalent annual payments for the total of the duration
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of the life cycle of the investments and consider only the payments that
are included in the study horizon.
The key assumption in this approach is that the facility continues being
useful for the system along the pending life cycle after the analysis
horizon.
ii. Proportional to the use: In this case the idea is split the net cost in
equivalent payments in proportion of is use during the life cycle (i.e.
generated energy for generators, transformed energy for transformers,
transported energy on lines or switching operations for breakers) and
include in the planning horizon only the fraction of the cost in proportion
of the use within the planning period.
The key assumption in this approach is that the facility will exhaust its
expected utilization rate before than its decommissioning independent
of the time that it takes.
iii. In proportion to the saved over costs per period: This approach is an
extrapolation of the concept of the economic marginal cost of the
element. The inclusion of the element (facility) in the power system save
some costs in the operation of the system, it is possible to simulate the
additional cost that happens in the system if the element is not available,
the cost of the facility is allocated per period in proportion to the saved
costs that produce its presence.
For the evaluation of the Master Plan of Sumatra the Consultant use the approach of
Proportional of the expected life cycle described above.
There are also different approaches for the estimation of the part of the previous
investment cost that must be included as part of the effective costs of the planning
horizon, among of these we may consider the following:
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a) Proportional to the life cycle: Is the application of the same concept of the
yearly payment for those facilities that has not finished their life cycle
The key assumption in this approach is that the facility will exhaust its
life cycle and decommissioned immediately. The critics to this approach
comes from the fact that many facilities that already finished their
expected life cycle are still in operation, contributing to the PS
performance and saving cost to the system.
The advantage of this approach is its easy application, and is the only
feasible to be used if no detail information exists about the cost and age
of the existing system.
The critics on this method are coming from the fact that the supply of
part of the demand (the current demand) in the future is not independent
of the future expansion or future demand, the network nature of the
transmission system is characterized by economies of scale, network
and many synergies are in place in the systems working as a whole.
It makes sense to consider that the investments for the planning period
are not only attending the new demand but also providing systematic
renovation of the existing network.
The consultant implements this second approach of Discounting the benefits currently
provided by the existing system in the evaluation of the Master Plan of Sumatra.
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According to the previous discussion the investment cost to be considered are the following:
For purposes of evaluation of the expansion the year 2017 was taken as the existing system
and the expansion horizon is 2045.
The following table shows the quantity of transmission lines installed in each of the years
according to the expansion plan.
Table 1 : Quantity of transmission lines installed by year during the planning period
Volt (kV) 70 70 150 150 275 275 500 500
Year/Type Single Double Single Double Single Double Single Double
2018 0 1 0 4 0 3 0 0
2019 0 0 4 18 0 5 0 0
2020 0 0 0 34 1 9 0 0
2021 0 0 0 12 0 5 0 2
2022 0 0 0 9 0 3 0 5
2023 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 1
2024 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 1
2026 0 0 4 7 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
2028 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0
2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
2031 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 2
2032 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1
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The following table shows the length of transmission lines (km) installed in each of the years
according to the expansion plan.
For the estimation of the investment cost of the transmission lines the following unitary costs
has been considered.
The following table shows the estimated investment cost of transmission lines (million USD)
installed in each of the years according to the expansion plan
Table 3: Cost of the transmission lines - Millions of USD
Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500 Grand Total
Year/Type Double Double Single Double Single Double
2018 5 30 58 92
2023 62 14 76
2024 33 15 48
2027 70 70
2028 18 37 55
2030 16 31 47
2033 43 96 139
2034 10 7 17
Using a discount rate of 10% the Net Present Value of the Investments flows is equivalent
to 1745 MUSD.
From the discussion of the previous section it is clear that the effective cost to be considered
for the balance of benefits from the transmission system is not the total of the 4.4 BUSD. In
example in the year 2045 is planned to install 1512 km of 550 KV DC line at an estimated
cost of 726 Million USD.
There is no point to justify the total of the 726 million of USD with the benefit of only one
year of operation of the line, the selected method estimates that only one annual payment
of the 30 years of life cycle is considered as effective cost within the planning horizon and
the other 29 payments go out of the effective account of costs for the obtained benefits of
this investment during the planning horizon.
The following table shows the annual payment for each of the investment cost in each of
the years of planning.
Table 4: Annual equivalent payment for the investments executed each year Million USD
(10% discount rate, 30 years of life cycle)
Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500 Grand Total Cumulative
Year/Type Double Double Single Double Single Double
2018 $0.51 $3.14 $6.15 $9.80 $10
It is relevant to note that the inclusion of the figure by year is only to facilitate the reading of
the table, but the yearly payment must be included the year of commissioning of the
investment and all the following year of the study, because the line is providing services
and be paid all the years of the study up to the study horizon. The column cumulative of
payments is the one that includes the effective cost of investments in transmission lines to
be considered each year. (sum of the payment of the investment of the year in addition of
the payments of the investments of the previous years.)
In addition is relevant include the cost of O&M of the facilities installed. For purposes of the
evaluation we estimate the cost of M&M of any transmission facility as the 3% of the
investment cost.
The following table shows the annual O&M cost for each of the investment commissioned
in each of the years of planning.
Table 5: Annual O&M for the investments executed each year Million USD (3% of the
investment cost)
Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500 Grand Total Cumulative
Year/Type Double Double Single Double Single Double
2018 $0.14 $0.89 $1.74 $2.77 $3
2019 $4.17 $0.45 $1.21 $5.82 $9
2020 $10.82 $3.16 $0.74 $14.73 $23
2021 $2.55 $3.53 $4.32 $10.41 $34
2022 $2.94 $1.40 $8.24 $12.57 $46
2023 $1.85 $0.43 $2.28 $49
2024 $0.98 $0.45 $1.43 $50
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The equivalent cash flow of the calculated payments is as in the following diagram.
Considering a discount rate of 10% on this graphic of cumulative payments the Net present
value is 1710 million us USD.
The Net Present Value of the O&M is 472 million us USD.
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The following table shows the capacity of the substations planned in the plan. It is expected
to install 80.000 MVA of capacity in the transmission substations.
For the estimation of the investment cost of the transmission substations the following
unitary costs has been considered.
The following table shows the estimated investment cost of transmission substations
(million USD) installed in each of the years according to the expansion plan.
Using a discount rate of 10% the Net Present Value of the Investments flows is equivalent
to 285 MUSD.
The equivalent cash flow of the calculated payments is as in the following diagram.
Considering a discount rate of 10% on this graphic of cumulative payments the Net present
value in transmission substations is 221 million us USD.
The Net Present Value of the O&M is 42 million us USD.
The sub transmissions substations are those that connect the transmission system with the
distribution system, the configurations and variety is too high to make an assessment in
detail with the available information, the consultant grouped the different substations in
groups of typical equivalents in order to use standard Per Units.
The following table shows the capacity of the substations planned in the plan. It is expected
to install 115.380 MVA of transformers capacity in the sub-transmission substations.
Table 7: Capacity of the sub-transmission substations in the Master Plan
Row Labels 150//20 20//6.5 275//20 500//20 Grand
Total
2019 5616.5 60 2310 7986.5
2020 3132 3132
2021 145 900 1045
2023 2882 1440 3150 7472
2025 3564.5 1800 5364.5
2026 1020 1800 2820
2027 2290 2290
2028 240 1500 1740
2030 4950 4950
2045 3600 22830 52150 78580
Grand Total 20200 60 31270 63850 115380
For the estimation of the investment cost of the transmission substations the following
unitary costs has been considered.
The following table shows the estimated investment cost of sub-transmission substations
(million USD) installed in each of the years according to the expansion plan.
The total value of the investments is 505 MUSD. Using a discount rate of 10% the Net
Present Value of the Investments flows is equivalent to 308 MUSD.
The equivalent cash flow of the calculated payments is as in the following diagram.
Considering a discount rate of 10% on this graphic of cumulative payments the Net present
value in sub-transmission substations is 296 million us USD.
The Net Present Value of the O&M is 58 million us USD.
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Also is considering that the existing demand is getting part of the benefits of the expansion
as replacement of the existing network,
The following figure shows the total energy flowing in the system each year split between
new the part that is getting the benefits of the new investments and the one allocated to the
current existing system.
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So the investment plan uses the effective cost and the O&M cost during the planning period
in order to serve the needs of the part of the demand in the blue color of the graph.
In order to appropriately evaluate the unitary cost of the expansion per unit of energy
attended is to compare the Net present value of the costs with the Net present value of the
served demand.
The application of the discount rate to the demand is not a correct concept but a mathematic
instrument in order to calculate the amount of money that each unit of energy has to pay in
order to afford the expansion cost.
Clearly the cost per unit is the ratio between the NPV of the cost flows divided by the NPV
of the attended energy.
The application of the NPV to the serial of energy in blue color the chart is 730.403,70 GWH
equivalents.
= 3.83 USD/MWH.
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The cost appears a little high in comparison with the developed countries, in example the
European average unitary cost is 3.01 USD/MWH and in Spain is 3.32 /MWH.
It is relevant to underline that the architecture of the Sumatra power system demands the
movement of an important part of the energy from south to north side of the island. The
system demand more transfer of energy that a regular Power system, and it is expected
that the cost of the transmission system becomes higher than other systems of similar size.