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Contents
Policy Scenarios
Growth Accounting: Demand Components
20
16
9.4
4.4
5.3
12 2.2
12.8
4.6 4.8
4.2 2.9
1.6 2.9 5.3
1.3 5.5
3.1
0.6 0.2 5.9 3.5 1.1 2.8
1.9
Percent
-6.6
-4
-8
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990
Composition
1992 1994
of GDP
1996
(%)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
16
14
5.7
12
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.4
10 7.0
4.7
4.4 5.5 4.0
5.6
3.8 4.2
8 3.8 4.0
Percent
2.9
4.6 3.7 4.0 3.9
4.2
4.3 3.7
4.0 4.0
3.2
6 3.5
1.8 7.7
3.3 7.7
7.4
1.9
4 4.6
5.9
6.3
7.2
5.9 5.3
4.9 0.7 5.9 5.3 5.6
0.6 1.9 4.8 4.7
3.4 4.5 4.6
4.9 1.1 4.0 4.3
4.4 4.4 3.7 3.9
2
3.2 1.3
2.6
1.5 2.0
1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5
0 -0.6
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2
16
14
12
6.7
10 5.8 6.0
9.0
4.6
Percent
4.0
3.4 3.8 4.0
8 3.2
4.0
3.4
4.8 1.8 2.9 2.8
2.1
6
0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
0 0.4 0.3 0.2
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Productivity
Agricultural productivity is exogenous and neutral wrt inputs (2.5% per
annum)
Manufacturing & services productivity is labor augmenting and
calibrated in baseline to target per capita GDP growth
Manufacturing productivity is 2% higher than services
• Autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) increases by 1% per
annum
Other
Agricultural/food IO coefficients calibrated to achieve FAO
supply/demand trends
Baseline-Population & GDP
1600
8000 12
GDP per capita (2004 price)
1400 GDP growth rate (%)
Age: >65 7000
10
1200
6000
1000 8
5000
Age:15 ~65
800
4000 6
600
3000
4
400
2000
200
2
Age:<15 1000
0
0 0
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Baseline- Industrial Structure
100% 100%
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Service Other industries Energy-intensive Manu. Energy Agriculture Service Other industries Energy-intensive Manu. Energy Agriculture
3500 5.0
3000
4.0
2500
3.0
2000
1500 2.0
1000
1.0
500
0 0.0
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Alternative scenarios
• Urbanization
• Population Aging
• Accelerating urbanization
– Saving rate
Scenario-3 Global Mitigation