Brian Dunbar

Headquarters, Washington, D.C.

April 30, 1992
(Phone: 202/453-1547)

Dane Konop
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring,
Md.
(Phone: 301/713-2465)

RELEASE: 92-55

U.S. STUDY ENHANCES CONCERN FOR NORTHERN OZONE DEPLETION

Results of a recently completed U.S. multi-agency aircraft

study indicate that the ozone shield of the Northern Hemisphere is
increasingly vulnerable to depletion by man-made chemicals, said
Dr. James Anderson of Harvard University, the study's Mission
Scientist.

This 7-month study indicates the magnitude of human-caused

ozone losses in the Arctic depends on the severity and length of
the polar winter, which varies from year to year. The research
team found that during this winter, the Arctic was primed
chemically for ozone loss by mid-January, but the early warming of
that region that occurred in late January precluded major ozone
depletion.

The study also revealed important evidence supporting the

conclusion that ozone decreases at mid-latitudes are associated
with increased levels in chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere.
Since concentrations of human-made, ozone-depleting chemicals will
continue to rise during the 1990s despite current regulations, it
is increasingly likely in coming years that substantial Arctic
ozone losses will occur during particularly cold, protracted
winters and that mid-latitude ozone trends will continue to
decline.

The 80 scientists of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric

Expedition (AASE II) used two NASA aircraft to examine the
ozone-related chemistry and air motions of the lower stratosphere
from early October 1991 through late March 1992. The flights,
largely based out of Bangor, Maine, covered latitudes from south
of the equator to the North Pole and extended from Norway to
Alaska. NASA's Dr. Michael Kurylo, the AASE II Program Manager,
said these extensive measurements, combined with satellite and
meteorological data, provide the first detailed picture of the
factors that drive changes in the Arctic ozone layer from fall,
through winter, and into spring.

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Stratospheric ozone is destroyed by chemical reactions when

exposed to chlorine monoxide (ClO) and bromine monoxide (BrO) in
the presence of sunlight. The chlorine monoxide arises primarily
from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and the bromine monoxide is
produced in part by halons. CFCs and halons are industrially
produced chemicals that have many common uses, including
propellants, refrigerants and fire suppressants.

Ground-based and airborne experiments in 1986 and 1987

demonstrated that these chemicals are the cause of the large
seasonal ozone losses in the Antarctic spring. In
January-February 1989, flights out of Stavanger, Norway, found
that ClO concentrations could be as high in the Arctic winter as
in the Antarctic spring. Yet ozone losses observed in the Arctic
winter in 1989 were much smaller than those of the Antarctic in
spring, suggesting the need to better understand the seasonal
changes in ozone and the gases that affect it. The current
aircraft campaign with its extended seasonal coverage, refined
abilities to separate chemical and air-motion effects, and several
critical new instruments have taken a much closer look at how such
chemical species, against the backdrop of complex air motions, can
cause ozone losses in the Arctic and Northern latitudes.

Over the past several years, the results from the suite of
instruments on the high-flying ER-2 aircraft and the far-ranging
DC-8 aircraft have demonstrated that the ClO abundances are
greatly elevated in polar regions by the presence of small
particle polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Chemical reactions
that occur on the surfaces of these particles cause more of the
chlorine from CFCs to appear as ClO, rather than as the
less-reactive forms such as chlorine nitrate and hydrochloric
acid. Rapid ozone loss occurs when air perturbed by these surface
reactions is exposed to sunlight.

The AASE II observations within the Arctic region revealed

how the ClO abundances changed with season. The unique sequence
of aircraft flights demonstrated that the ClO concentrations grew
during the fall-to-winter months. By mid-January, the ClO
abundances had reached values that were higher than any seen
previously, either in the Arctic or the Antarctic. Though large
ozone losses were not observed then only because much of the
Arctic region was still dark, the study revealed an unprecedented
potential for ozone loss if this air were to be exposed to
extensive sunlight. The somewhat early warming of the
stratosphere in late January reduced the ClO abundances
considerably before the sunlight returned, averting extensive
Arctic ozone losses this year.

The scientists have concluded that the ClO growth seen in the
Arctic during AASE I in 1989 and AASE II this year is likely to
occur each winter. In years for which these high levels of Arctic
ClO persist into the sunlit months of spring (February and March),
chemical models predict that ozone depletion will occur. The
temperature record of the Arctic shows that winters with cold
stratospheric temperatures in February are not uncommon.

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While ClO was still high in January, there was some exposure
to Arctic sunlight, apparently resulting in 10 to 20 percent ozone
loss at flight altitudes. High-ClO air could be traced to regions
of high PSCs. Less ozone-depleting conditions were found to be
linked to air that had not been exposed to PSCs. Thus, the AASE
II mission has established in detail how and when ozone losses can
occur in the Arctic. Because the atmosphere of the Arctic region
is so variable, the full extent of overall ozone losses this year
will require further assimilation of the extensive data set of
AASE II and other sources.

Higher-than-expected ClO amounts also were found on flights

southward to mid latitudes. The data indicated that these
elevated levels also were due to chemistry occurring on the
surfaces of particles, which at these latitudes were not PSCs, but
particles of sulfate in the lower stratosphere. The aircraft
studies also showed that the chemistry occurring on these sulfate
particles lowers the abundances of the nitrogen oxides in the
region, said Dr. David Fahey, one of the scientists from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Like ClO, nitrogen oxides destroy stratospheric ozone.

Unlike ClO, stratospheric nitrogen oxides are produced largely by
natural processes. At these sunlit mid latitudes, elevated
abundances of ClO, coupled with observed BrO abundances and
reduced levels of nitrogen oxides, suggest that a larger portion
of the ozone destruction taking place there is likely to be due to
human influences rather than to natural ones.

The AASE II observations are consistent with the view

expressed in the recent United Nations Environment Programme
report that implicates ClO and BrO in the downward ozone trends
observed over mid latitudes by satellites and ground-based
measurements over the past several years. The mission results
also underscore the need to include such additional
ozone-depleting processes in models used to predict for
governments the future ozone losses associated with regulatory
strategies regarding CFCs, their substitutes, other
chlorine-containing gases and the bromine-containing halons.

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines has

increased the abundance of natural sulfate particles, potentially
enhancing ozone losses due to chemical reactions that occur on
particle surfaces. Ozone levels were reduced within layers of
Mount Pinatubo aerosols in the tropics, but further analyses are
needed before the eruption's effect on the ozone layer can be
assessed quantitatively. However, since volcanic particles settle
out of the stratosphere in 3 to 5 years, any ozone loss caused by
Mount Pinatubo will be short lived in contrast to the chronic
effect of the long-lived CFCs and halons.

The researchers noted that within the Arctic region, the

particles from Mount Pinatubo likely play a minor role in
perturbing the ozone-depleting chemistry compared to the role of
the abundant PSCs. No direct injection of chlorine itself by the
volcano was observed at any latitudes.
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The AASE II mission was a multi-agency effort involving

scientists and support from NASA, NOAA and the National Science
Foundation, scientists from several universities and support from
the chemical industry's Alternative Fluorocarbon Environmental
Acceptability Study. The NASA aircraft are managed by the Ames
Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif., for NASA's Office of Space
Science and Applications.

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