6/19/2014 Winter process pt1

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Louisville, KY

Meteorological Processes in the Atmosphere (Part 1)

Across the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys and southeastern United States, a number of major
precipitation events (including snowstorms) typically are associated with significant isentropic lift, entrance
regions of jet streaks, frontogenetical forcing, some degree of instability, and sometimes fronts aloft. These
processes are not separate; they are inter-related in a non-linear atmosphere. Atmospheric temperature
structure also is crucial. Therefore, we must understand these processes well in order to produce accurate
forecasts.

THERMODYNAMIC/TEMPERATURE PROCESSES
Temperature advection, adiabatic warming/cooling, and diabatic effects can have major influences on
atmospheric temperatures and precipitation type in the cool season, especially during borderline
rain/snow situations.

Effects of these processes on temperature: Warm (cold) air advection causes a temperature increase
(decrease) at a particular level or in a layer. Adiabatic cooling (warming) occurs when air rises
(descends), resulting in a temperature decrease (increase). When the air is stable, then adiabatic cooling
due to lift will have a more substantial effect on temperature than for an unstable atmosphere. Diabatic
effects include diurnal heating/nocturnal cooling, condensation, evaporative cooling, and melting.

Diurnal heating/nocturnal cooling affects temperature (especially in low levels).

Condensation produces latent heat release, which produces warming that can counteract somewhat the
effects of adiabatic cooling from lift. Latent heat release is most noteworthy in convection.

Evaporative cooling occurs as precipitation falls into relatively dry low levels. The precipitation evaporates
in the drier air which causes cooling in low levels and at the surface. In borderline rain/snow cases, this
can cause frozen precipitation to remain as such until low-level saturation occurs, or it could cause liquid
precipitation to temporarily change to frozen or freezing precipitation. Once the low-level air mass
saturates, then evaporative cooling no longer is a factor.

Melting (of snow to rain aloft or snow on the ground) causes a small amount of cooling in the atmosphere
since heat from the environment is needed to melt the ice crystals. If significant melting occurs aloft, then
an isothermal layer at or below 0 deg C could result. A saturated isothermal layer is important for heavy
precipitation production since the layer will be associated with a larger absolute moisture content than
one in which temperature and mixing ratio decrease with height.

Advection and vertical motion often oppose each other. Warm advection usually causes ascent, which in
turn produces adiabatic cooling to at least partially counteract the warming. However, vertical motion due
only to warm advection likely will not be strong enough to completely counteract the warming and any
latent heat release. Thus, low-level (e.g., 850 mb) temperatures and thicknesses usually will rise during
warm advection situations. However, occasionally temperatures and thicknesses may not rise (perhaps
even fall) in the face of warm advection (models can show this). For this to occur, other forcing
mechanisms must be present to produce much stronger vertical motion (often on a smaller scale),
including significant jet streaks, frontogenesis, and/or CSI/convective instability. Therefore, models can
hint that significant mesoscale processes may be present to produce strong enough lift and adiabatic
cooling to overwhelm warm advection. This often is a scenario, given adequate moisture, for heavy
precipitation production, such as was the case during the January 16-17, 1994 snowstorm in Kentucky in
which 1 to 2 feet of snow fell across parts of north-central Kentucky in less than a 12-hour period.

Strong adiabatic cooling could cause precipitation to fall as or change to snow during the period of
maximum lift during borderline rain/snow situations.

COLD FRONTS ALOFT

The classic Norwegian Cyclone Model (NCM; Fig. 1), developed many years ago, involves development of
an incipient weather disturbance along a frontal zone into an mature open wave extratropical cyclone and
then into an occluded system. In this model, steady precipitation usually occurs along and ahead of a
warm front, with a band of showery precipitation along the cold front.

Fig. 1: Typical frontal structure (open wave

cyclone) and precipitation pattern
associated with the Norwegian Cyclone
Model. Precipitation is located along and
ahead of the warm front with a band of
showers along the cold front.

The NCM possesses several problems, including the fact that it fails to explain detailed mesoscale frontal
and precipitation structures associated with typical extratropical cyclones. Thus, alternative extratropical
cyclone models have been devised to allow for a more scientific and correct analysis and evolution of
cyclogenesis, fronts, airflow, and precipitation patterns within winter storms.

Cold fronts are not all homogeneous, i.e., they vary in associated temperature contrast, wind shift, and
precipitation regimes. Two basic groups of cold fronts have been suggested.

Ana-cold fronts (Figs. 2a and 2b) are associated with relatively deep/sharp troughs aloft, i.e., the upper
flow is roughly parallel to the surface front. In these cases, the surface fronts often possess sharp

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temperature changes and wind shifts, and significant vertical motion. System-relative airflow exhibits a
sloping rearward ascent of warm, moist air which can result in a line of showers or thunderstorms along
the front and extensive post-frontal precipitation.

Fig. 2a (far left): Typical 500 mb

(dashed height lines) and surface low
and frontal pattern associated with a
ana-cold front.

Fig. 2b (near left): Common

precipitation pattern with ana-cold
fronts. A line of convection may be
along the front with post- frontal
precipitation due to "system- relative"
front-to-rear sloped ascent behind the
front.

Kata-cold fronts (Figs. 3a and 3b) are not as well-defined as ana fronts, and usually possess weak-to-
moderate temperature gradients and scattered showery precipitation along the front. Kata fronts occur
with a less amplified flow pattern (i.e., more westerly momentum) aloft, which results in a system-relative
forward sloping ascent and a band or area of more significant precipitation ahead of the surface front.

Fig. 3a (far left): Typical 500 mb (dashed

height lines) and surface low and frontal
pattern associated with a k ata-cold front.

Fig. 3b (near left): Common frontal,

precipitation, and flow (large hatched arrow)
regime associated with a k ata-cold front.
Precipitation occurs along a cold front aloft
(CFA; line U-U) located ahead of the
surface front with drier air aloft behind the
CFA. Precipitation also occurs along/ahead
of the warm front. Scattered showers are
possible along the surface cold front due to
low-level moisture and any lift.

Precipitation patterns associated with kata fronts have been explained via a split cold front or cold front
aloft (CFA) model. The cold front aloft (Figs. 3b, 4a, and 4b) is associated with the leading edge of cold
advection aloft (often evident at 700 mb and on satellite imagery), as well as with frontogenesis and
convergence between warm, moist air ahead of the CFA and cooler, drier air behind it. This typically
produces significant lift and a band or area of stratiform and/or convective precipitation along and ahead of
the CFA within the surface warm sector. This is one explanation of why we often see "pre-frontal" squall
lines.

Fig. 4a: Vertical cross-section of clouds and Fig. 4b: A 3-D view of a CFA and surface cold
precipitation patterns associated with a CFA (dashed front/trough and warm front. An area of rain and
line). Rain and possible convection occurs along and possible thunderstorms occurs along and ahead of the
ahead of the CFA, with scattered showers and CFA with drier air aloft overtop low-level moisture
possible thunderstorms behind the CFA and along the behind the CFA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
surface cold front. are possible along the surface cold front assuming
ample instability and lift.
At the same time, in general a less active surface boundary/cold front exists behind the CFA, especially
in the cool season when only limited instability may be present. However, in the warm season, some
sunshine could occur between the CFA and surface boundary (as drier air moves in aloft overtop low-level
moisture). The convective instability may then be released through surface/low-level convergence along
the surface boundary leading to development of a line of strong convection, especially if additional upper-
level dynamics are present.

It is very important to monitor fronts aloft via satellite imagery, the leading edge of 700/500 mb cold
advection, and shortwaves (perhaps subtle) in model data. Sometimes, model data suggest fronts aloft
via their relative humidity pattern, although many times, they indicate too high/widespread RH and
precipitation duration forecasts versus that observed.

ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
An isentropic process is an adiabatic process (i.e., no parcel heat exchange with its environment). For
synoptic scale weather systems, air parcels generally move along constant potential temperature/theta

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(i.e., isentropic) surfaces, NOT constant pressure (isobaric) surfaces (Figs. 5a and 5b). In other words,
air moves in 3 dimensions, not on horizontal pressure surfaces.

Fig. 5a: Example of an isentropic surface in 2- Fig. 5b: Same as Fig. 5a except the isentropic
dimensions. Bold solid (dashed) lines are lines of surface is shown in 3 dimensions to more clearly
constant pressure/isobars (mixing ratio/isohumes) show ascent and upward moisture transport.
while the bold arrow is wind direction on the
surface. Flow is from higher-to-lower values of
pressure and moisture. Thus, ascent/upward
moisture transport is occurring.
Isentropic analysis allows the ability to attain quantitative estimates of vertical motion and coherently
track air flow and the 3-dimensional transport of moisture in space and time (unlike pressure
coordinates).

Vertical motion on an isentropic surface is determined via pressure advection, which is analogous to
temperature advection on a constant pressure surface (e.g., 850 mb). In other words, an area of warm air
advection at 850 mb likely also is an area of isentropic lift.

Isentropic ascent and upward moisture transport (Fig. 5) are present in areas where winds on the theta
surface cross isobars and isohumes (mixing ratio lines) from higher-to-lower values of pressure (similar to
warm advection on a pressure surface) and mixing ratio.

For descent, wind flow is from lower-to-higher pressure, and often from lower-to-higher values of mixing
ratio which produces drying.

The stronger the winds, the tighter the pressure gradient (i.e., the steeper the slope of the isentropic
surface), and the more perpendicular the winds are to the isotherms and isohumes, the stronger the
upward motion and moisture transport will be. This can lead to significant precipitation.

Vertical motion values associated with isentropic lift usually are "synoptic-scale" values, i.e., on the order
of several (perhaps 5-10) cm/s.

Divergence within entrance and exit regions of jet streaks (see below) can increase the flow along
isentropic surfaces and isentropic lift.

Significant diabatic effects, e.g., latent heat release or diurnal heating/cooling, and isentropic analysis
near the ground are limitations and can make accurate isentropic analysis difficult.

JET STREAKS
A "jet streak" refers to a portion of the overall jet stream where winds along the jet core flow are stronger
than in other areas along the jet stream. Entrance and exit regions of jet streaks are very important in
terms of vertical motion, surface pressure systems, and organized precipitation given sufficient low-level
moisture. Exit regions are where air parcels "exit" out of a jet streak and decelerate downstream from the
jet core (Fig 6). Entrance regions are where parcels "enter" into a jet streak and accelerate upstream
from the jet core (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6a: Idealized example of the entrance and Fig. 6b: Example of the entrance and exit regions
exit regions of a straight jet streak . Highest winds of a straight jet streak . Dashed lines are lines of
are within the streak along the line/arrow labeled equal wind speed (isotachs); solid lines are height
"jet." Divergence (div) usually occurs within the lines along which the total wind blows. The small
left exit and right entrance regions, while arrows denote a component of the ageostrophic
convergence (conv) normally occurs in the right wind due to jet streak s that results in divergence
exit and left entrance regions. and convergence in exit and entrance regions.
Within the exit and entrance regions of jet streaks, air parcels moving at different speeds become out of
balance with the existing thermal (temperature) gradient in these regions. Thus, the atmosphere attempts
to restore (thermal wind) balance through vertical motion. The vertical motion is attained through
ageostrophic winds. Thus, vertical motion is required within entrance and exit regions of jets.

In general, the more the "along-stream variation of the total wind" within an exit and entrance region (i.e.,
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the faster the winds are accelerating within an entrance region or decelerating in an exit region per unit
area along the flow; Fig. 6b), the greater the vertical motion must be to restore thermal wind balance. The
"cross-stream variation" (i.e., how quickly wind speeds change in a plane perpendicular to the jet axis)
also is important in promoting vertical motion fields.

Within jet entrance and exit regions, the cross-stream component of the inertial advective part of the
ageostrophic wind (i.e., the small arrows in Fig. 6b) dictates the amount of divergence/convergence (and
subsequent vertical motion) due to jet streak dynamics. Upper-level divergence (convergence) often is
associated with upward (downward) vertical motion in the atmosphere.

However, even without the presence of a jet streak, curvature in the flow (i.e., upper-level troughs and
ridges) results in divergence/convergence (and subsequent vertical motion) due to the along-stream
component of the inertial advective part of the ageostrophic wind (Fig. 7). The stronger the curvature (i.e.,
the more amplified the jet pattern) and the shorter the wavelength between a trough and ridge axis aloft,
the greater the upper-level divergence pattern will be due to the along-stream component of the
ageostrophic wind.

Fig. 7: Example of an upper-level flow pattern

showing trough and ridge axes. Solid lines are
constant height lines. Arrows are a
component of the ageostrophic wind due to
troughs and ridges that results in
convergence (con) and divergence (div) aloft.

Thus, upper-level divergence (of the ageostrophic wind) is caused by 1) jet streak entrance and exit
regions, and 2) curvature and wavelength of the overall flow (troughs and ridges). It is very important to
consider both these phenomena. It can be advantageous to look at the two components of the upper-level
ageostrophic wind individually to assess which phenomena is most important to the production of vertical
motion. These two components also explain 1) why 4-cell divergence patterns associated with straight jet
streaks become 2-cell patterns for curved jets, and 2) why divergence values for curved jet streaks
usually are stronger than that for straight jets (see below).

For STRAIGHT jet streaks, a 4-cell pattern of divergence aloft and vertical motion usually occurs (Fig.
8a).

Fig. 8a: Four-cell pattern of
divergence/vertical motion
associated with a straight jet
streak . In the dashed left exit (i.e,
upper right portion of image) and
right entrance jet regions (lower left
portion of image), divergence aloft
and upward motion usually occur.
Convergence and downward motion
usually prevail in the solid line right
exit (lower right) and left entrance
(upper left) regions of a straight jet
streak .
Fig. 8b: Two-cell pattern of Fig. 8c: Same as Fig. 8b except
divergence/upward motion (dashed; for an anticyclonically-curved jet
jet exit region, i.e., right half of streak . Divergence aloft and
image) and convergence/downward upward motion occur in the jet right
motion (solid; jet entrance region, entrance region (left half of image)
i.e., left half of image) associated with convergence and descent in
with a cyclonically-curved jet streak . the jet right exit region (right half of
Values often are greater than those image).
with a straight streak .

Within entrance regions, a thermally direct secondary circulation (Fig. 9a) occurs associated with
the ageostrophic wind. Warm air usually rises within the right entrance (right rear) region while
cold air sinks in the left entrance region. To complete the circulation, horizontal ageostrophic
winds often flow from warm-to-cold air at upper levels, and from cold-to-warm air at low levels. The
circulation is on the order of approximately 400-600 km in horizontal extent.

Within exit regions, a thermally indirect secondary circulation (Fig. 9b) occurs. Cold air rises in
the left exit (left front) region and warm air sinks in the right exit region. The horizontal
ageostrophic components include flow from warm-to-cold air at low levels and from cold-to-warm
air at upper levels.

Fig. 9a (far left): Idealized "box" direct

thermal circulation in the entrance region
of jet streak s. Warm air rises in the right
entrance region; cold air sink s in the left
entrance region. Horizontal ageostrophic
flow occurs from colder to warmer air in
low levels.

Fig. 9b (near left): Idealized indirect

thermal circulation in the exit region of jet
streak s. The circulation is opposite that
shown in Fig. 9a.

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However, circulations associated with jet streaks are not "boxes" as shown in the examples above.
Typically, vertical components are sloped along isentropic surfaces (Fig. 10). Thus, jet streak circulations
and isentropic surfaces are not independent. In other words, in jet entrance and exit regions, enhanced
upper-level divergence may lead to enhanced flow and vertical motion along isentropic surfaces.

Fig. 10: Cross-section of an east-west jet

streak exit region. The core of jet is
directed into the page so that the right (left)
side of the image is the right (left) exit
region. A more realistic sloped ascent
(bold arrow) roughly along isentropic
surfaces (sloped thin solid lines) occurs
toward the level of maximum upper-level
divergence.

For CURVED jet streaks, the "classic" 4-cell (Fig. 8a) vertical motion pattern can be more complicated,
and usually becomes a 2-cell vertical motion pattern.

For a cyclonically-curved jet (Fig. 8b), maximum upper divergence values and subsequent ascent
usually are found along and to the left of the core of the exit region, with descent along and to the
left of the entrance region.

For an anticyclonically-curved jet (Fig. 8c), upper divergence and ascent are strongest along and
to the right of the entrance region, with descent along and to the right of the exit region.

Ascent/descent values usually are greatest for cyclonically-curved jet streaks, second greatest for
anticyclonically-curved jet streaks, and relatively weakest (but still significant) for straight jets assuming
adequate along-stream variation in the wind (Fig. 8).

If varying temperature patterns (isotherms) are superimposed on jet streaks, different thermal advection
pattern will result aloft. This can cause the location of maximum divergence and convergence to shift
slightly with respect to the jet core.

Occasionally, the ascending branches of two separate jet streaks may be coincident over one location.
This merger (coupling) is associated with the ascending branches of the direct circulation in the entrance
region of one jet and the indirect circulation in the exit region of a second jet. This interaction maximizes
upper-level divergence and vertical motion.

Let's look closer at entrance regions of jet streak s, since they are important to significant precipitation
events (including snowstorms) in the Ohio Valley.

Part II

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