36
Launceston Supply & Demand
Hold share outlook Hold Share Outlook: Dec 20
Launceston nights by month
Room nights to lift to 432k and an average Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
Year to Dec 20
Available room nights (000s) 528
Room nights (000s) 432
Average occupancy (%) 82%
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,605
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 159
37
1.5m T21 Tas visitor target by 2020
Hold share: Tas visitors Inter & Inbound trips to Tas
All purposes of trip (millions) - 12MMT
Inter & Inbound Commercial trips
to Launceston
reach 1.35m by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO
All purposes of trip (000s) - 12MMT
16% growth in inbound &
Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO
Actuals Target of
Forecast Actuals Forecast
interstate trips 1.7
= 1.50m trips
(+29% growth
500 T21 Target impact
for Launceston
1.50m Tas T21 Visitor to D20)
450
= 399k trips
to Dec 20
Target by 2020 1.5 (+29% growth)
1.3
additional +341 trips 350
From YT Sep 16 to Dec 20
Assuming Launceston holds 1.1 Hold Share
= 1.35m trips
300
0.5
100
Dec 10
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 11
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels,
Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins
38
1.5m T21 Tas visitor target by 2020
T21 Target Launceston Room Nights T21 Target: Dec 20
Launceston nights by month
Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
466k room nights by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Thousands
Launceston = 466k room
Feb 45 Full
expectations nights to Dec 20
Year to Dec 20
300 Available room nights (000s) 528
Room nights (000s) 466
Average occupancy (%) 88%
250
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,717
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 271
39
Launceston share scenario
Interstate scenario Launceston commercial Launceston commercial inbound
interstate performance performance
Hold Share scenario = 0.9% All purposes (% of Aus interstate trips) - 12MMT All purposes (% of Aus inbound trips) - 12MMT
Launceston maintains current market Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO
0.0 0.0
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 13
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial
accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments,
40 Rental Accommodation, Cabins. Market Share figures expressed as a share of total Aus demand.
Launceston share scenario outcome
Launceston commercial Share Scenario: Dec 20
Should Launceston room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Launceston nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW
continue to gain share Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 /
BDA AUSMO / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Monthly room night Average
At the same rate as over the
Share Scenario 1 Month
500 demand (000s) Occupancy
= 485k to Dec 20
Thousands
Jan 47 Full
past 3 years..
47 Full
..commercial room nights
480 Feb
Mar 48 Full
would climb to 485k 460 Apr 44 Full
Assuming commercial room nights / May 39 86%
440 Jun 33 75%
trip remain constant
Rooms shortfall would be 420
Jul
Aug
32
31
71%
70%
335, at optimal occupancy Hold share room Sep 36 84%
400
nights Oct 40 88%
= 432k to Dec 20 Nov 44 Full
380 (+19% from J16- Dec 45 Full
D20)
360
Year to Dec 20
340
Available room nights (000s) 528
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,781
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope
commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Note: All purposes demand refers to trips taken for any purpose of trip, including
Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins 41 holidays, visiting friends and relatives, business, conference and other purposes
Launceston +1.5% growth scenario
Note: Charts on separate scales.
850 150
1.2
750 130
1.0
650 110
0.8 550 90
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Mar 16
Sep 11
Dec 11
Sep 12
Dec 12
Sep 13
Dec 13
Sep 14
Dec 14
Sep 15
Dec 15
Sep 16
Jun 12
Jun 13
Jun 14
Jun 15
Jun 16
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Mar 16
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Sep 11
Sep 12
Sep 13
Sep 14
Sep 15
Sep 16
Jun 12
Jun 13
Jun 14
Jun 15
Jun 16
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Mar 16
Sep 11
Dec 11
Sep 12
Dec 12
Sep 13
Dec 13
Sep 14
Dec 14
Sep 15
Dec 15
Sep 16
Jun 12
Jun 13
Jun 14
Jun 15
Jun 16
Intrastate Annual growth Interstate Annual growth Inbound Annual growth
3 year +1.5% 3 year +1.5% 3 year +1.5%
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
avg Scenario avg Scenario avg Scenario
-1.0% 10.4% 0.1% 3.1% 4.6% 3.9% 6.7% 2.8% 4.5% 6.0% 20.8% 8.0% 13.3% 14.0% 15.5%
Over the past 3 years, Tasmania has enjoyed solid growth overall, particularly from interstate & inbound, with annual growth
averaging 6% & 11.6% respectively. However, intrastate visitor growth to Tasmania has slowed to now be steady year on year.
The +1.5% Growth Scenario above the 3 year average results in +4.6% annual gains for intrastate demand, +6% for interstate &
+15.5% for inbound out to 2020.
42
Launceston +1.5% growth scenario
Launceston commercial +1.5% Growth Scenario: Dec 20
An additional 1.5% room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Launceston nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,833
43
Launceston Summary
Launceston Trips Launceston Room Nights
Hold Share base Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / BDA AUSMO
Total nights- All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
Thousands
+1.5% Growth +1.5% Growth
+14% growth in trip demand 600
Scenario
Share 500
Scenario
Share
Scenario
to yield 432k room nights Scenario
350
400
350 300
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
Dec 18
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
Trips (000s) Sep 16 Dec 20 Growth Room Nights Growth
(S16-D20)
Sep 16 Dec 20
(000s) (S16-D20)
Hold Share 441 505 14.4% Hold Share 378 432 14.2%
Tas 1.5m Visitor Target 544 23.1% Tas 1.5m Visitor Target 466 23.2%
Share Gains 569 28.8% Share Gains 485 28.4%
+1.5% 3 year growth 589 33.4% +1.5% 3 year growth 501 32.6%
44
Launceston room requirement 75%
More rooms required Launceston Room Requirement 75%
Under all scenarios
Room numbers at 75% occupancy - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Jun 16
Jun 17
Jun 18
Jun 19
Jun 20
For the T21 Target, 271
rooms are required
For hold share 159 rooms Rooms Required
Current
supply
Dec 20 Addition
45
Launceston room / type requirement
Launceston room requirements x accommodation type 75% optimal occupancy
Room requirements x accommodation type
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
With up to +324 hotel rooms at D20 Hotel / Resort +0 +102 +152 Hotel / Resort +0 +165 +285
Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0
for +1.5% Growth Scenario
Little or no additional requirement
Serviced Apart. +0 +0 +4 Serviced Apart. +0 +6 +18
Rental +0 +0 +1 Rental +0 +3 +19
for more motels & cabins Cabin +0 +0 +0 Cabin +0 +0 +3
B&B +0 +0 +1 B&B +0 +2 +11
TOTAL +0 +102 +159 TOTAL +0 +176 +335
Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0
Cabin +0 +0 +2 Cabin +0 +1 +4
1,400
1,300
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
T21 Target 1,717 +271 +163
47
Northern Tasmania supply & demand
48
Northern Tasmania commercial outlook
Commercial demand to Northern Tasmania commercial visitor demand
lift in line with total trips Interstate, intrastate & Inbound demand All purposes (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / BDA AUSMO / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Thousands
Thousands
That is, share that Northern Tasmania (+14% growth) 800 722k room nights to Dec 20
commercial trips take of forecast 0.6 (+23% from J16-D20)
national demand is held constant Total Trips
= 515k to Sep 16
Current Northern Tasmania share*: 0.5 700
Interstate = 1.02%,
Inbound = 0.80%, 0.4
Intrastate = 0.25% Interstate & 600
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Outlook is for 722k Northern
Tas room nights by 2020 Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs,
Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins.
Note: Interstate share derived by dividing Interstate trips Northern Tasmania from the TVS by
Aus interstate trips from the NVS. Inbound share derived by dividing Inbound trips to Northern
49 Tasmania from the TVS by Aus inbound trips from the IVS. Intrastate share derived by dividing
Intrastate trips in Northern Tasmania from the NVS by Aus intrastate trips from the NVS.
Northern Tasmania Supply & Demand
Hold share outlook Hold Share Outlook: Dec 20
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Room night demand to grow to 722k Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
Jan 72 93%
accommodate this demand.. Feb 71 Full
..at 75% occupancy Mar 74 95%
Hence, the additional requirement is188 Apr 66 88%
May 57 73%
rooms 2020 Jun 46 61%
Jul 47 61%
Aug 45 58%
Sep 53 71%
Oct 60 77%
Nov 65 86%
Dec 66 85%
Year to Dec 20
Available room nights (000s) 913
Room nights (000s) 722
Average occupancy (%) 79%
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 2,688
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 188
50
1.5m Tas visitor target by 2020
Hold share: Tas visitors Inter & Inbound trips to Tas
All purposes of trip (millions) - 12MMT
Inter & Inbound commercial trips to
Northern Tasmania
reach 1.35m by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO
All purposes of trip (000s) - 12MMT
16% growth in inbound &
Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO
150
0.5
100
Dec 10
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 15
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels,
Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins
51
1.5m Tas T21 visitor target by 2020
Tas T21 Visitor Target Northern Tasmania Room Nights Tas T21 Visitor Target: Dec 20
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
781k room nights by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO / ABS 8635.0 Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Thousands
(+33% growth from Jun 16)
Optimal occupancy of 75%
Mar 80 Full
800 Apr 72 96%
Yields a requirement of 2,886 rooms May 61 79%
at Dec 20... 750
Jun 49 66%
a shortfall of 386 rooms 700 Jul 51 66%
Aug 49 63%
650 Sep 57 77%
Hold Oct 65 84%
600 Share
Nov 70 93%
Dec 71 92%
550
Year to Dec 20
500
Available room nights (000s) 913
52
Northern Tasmania share scenario
Interstate scenario Northern Tasmania commercial Northern Tasmania commercial
interstate performance inbound performance
Hold Share scenario = 1.0% All purposes (% of Aus interstate trips) - 12MMT All purposes (% of Aus inbound trips) - 12MMT
Northern Tas holds current market % Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO
0.5 0.2
Dec 15
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial
accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments,
53 Rental Accommodation, Cabins. Market Share figures expressed as a share of total Aus demand.
Northern Tas share scenario outcome
Northern Tasmania commercial Share Scenario: Dec 20
Should Northern room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW
continue to gain share Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / BDA AUSMO /
Tiger Tour / ATDW
Monthly room night Average
At the same rate as over the 900 Month
demand (000s) Occupancy
Thousands
Share Scenario 1 Jan 81 Full
past 3 years.. 850 = 807k to Dec 20 79 Full
..commercial room nights
Feb
Mar 82 Full
800
would climb to 807k Apr 74 99%
Assuming commercial room nights / May 63 82%
750
trip remain constant Jun 51 68%
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 2,972
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e.
Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins All
purposes demand refers to trips taken for any purpose of trip, including holidays, visiting friends and relatives,
business, conference and other purposes
54
Northern Tas +1.5% growth scenario
Northern Tasmania commercial +1.5% Growth Scenario: Dec 20
An additional 1.5% room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Thousands
Jan 85 Full
3 year Tas average).. Scenario
= 843k to Dec 20 83 Full
.would result in 501k room
850 Feb
Mar 86 Full
nights in Norther Tas 800 Apr 77 Full
Assuming Northern holds share of May 66 85%
750 Jun 53 71%
Tas and commercial room nights per
trip remain constant Jul 55 71%
700
592 additional rooms
Aug 52 68%
Sep 62 83%
650
required Hold share Nights
= 722k to Dec 20
Oct 70 90%
At 75% optimal occupancy 600 (+23% from J16-D20) Nov 76 Full
Dec 77 Full
550
Year to Dec 20
500
Available room nights (000s) 913
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 3,092
55
Northern Tasmania Summary
Northern Tasmania Trips Northern Tasmania Room Nights
Hold Share base Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO
Total nights- All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour /
Thousands
+14% growth in trip demand
900 +1.5% Growth
750 +1.5% Growth Scenario Share
Scenario Share Scenario
to yield 722k room nights 700
Scenario
800
Strongest outlook for +1.5% Tas T21 Visitor
Target 1.5m
Tas T21
Visitor Target
650
Growth Scenario visitors
700
1.5m visitors
Lifts
room nights by +34% from 600
Hold Share
Sep 16 to Dec 20 to 843k 550 Hold Share 600
500
500
450
400 400
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
Dec 19
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
Trips (000s) Sep 16 Dec 20 Growth Room Nights Growth
(S16-D20)
Sep 16 Dec 20
(000s) (S16-D20)
Hold Share 515 589 14.3% Hold Share 629 722 14.8%
Stakeholder Target 635 23.1% Stakeholder Target 781 24.2%
Share Gains 654 26.9% Share Gains 807 28.3%
+1.5% 3 year growth 686 33.1% +1.5% 3 year growth 843 34.0%
56
Northern Tasmania Summary 75%
occ. Northern Tasmania Room Requirement 75%
Room supply currently Room numbers at 75% occupancy - 12MMT
meeting demands 3,500
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
2,100
required to meet demand 1,900
If Tas gains share as it has in 1,700
the last 3 years.. 1,500
Dec 20
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
For the T21 Target, 386
rooms are required Rooms Required
Current
supply
Dec 20 Supply Gap
For hold share 188 rooms Hold Share 2,500 2,688 +188
57
Northern Tas room / type requirement
Northern Tasmania room requirements x accommodation type 75% optimal occupancy
Room requirements x accommodation type
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO
With up to +432 hotel rooms at D20 Hotel / Resort +0 +91 +167 Hotel / Resort +0 +179 +354
Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0
for +1.5% Growth Scenario
Rentals next highest category,
Serviced Apart. +0 +0 +0 Serviced Apart. +0 +1 +12
Rental +0 +0 +10 Rental +0 +13 +52
though well behind hotels / resorts Cabin +0 +0 +4 Cabin +0 +5 +23
No additional requirements for B&B +0 +0 +6 B&B +0 +7 +31
motels within Northern Tasmania TOTAL +0 +91 +188 TOTAL +0 +206 +472
Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0
Share
3,100 Scenario
Supply already under
construction or DA T21 Target 1.5m
2,900
Approved visitors
2,500
Current supply
2,300
2,100
Dec 18
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
+1.5% 3 year growth 3,092 +592 +484
59
Key indications (1)
60
Key indications (2)
Demand for accommodation in Launceston and Northern Tas is
growing strongly with overall regional visitation
Northern Tasmania is up to 64% annual occupancy, Launceston at 69% (YT June 16)
Revenue per room night available is also increasing rapidly
More rooms are required in Launceston / Northern Tasmania
Under all demand growth scenarios and allowing for occupancy to lift further to 75%
The achievement of the T21 Target (if the region holds share) would see an
additional 386 rooms required by 2020 in Northern Tas, 271 in Launceston
More rooms required under other demand scenarios
Recent growth +1.5% would require an additional 592 rooms in Northern Tas & 387 in Launceston
Continued share gains would require 472 rooms in Northern Tas and 335 in Launceston
61
Appendix
Return on investment
Northern Tasmania room supply
Scope
Room night demand
Determining regional room nights
Hold Share outlook
Demand scenarios
Data sources
62
Aus hotel returns
Aus hotel returns = 17.2% to Sep 16 Total returns for Australia Hotel Property Index
Small decline over the past year now just Annualised returns Source: MSCI
levelling off to Sep 16
Income return has remained relatively
steady at around 8%
Capital return more variable, though still well
up on levels seen in 2013
Note: Chart is sourced from the report: The Property Council / IPD
Australia Quarterly Hotel Property Index. The index is described as
tracking investment performance of 60 hotel assets worth ~$4b.
63
Northern Tasmania definitions
Classification of Launceston and Northern Tasmania regions:
Launceston
TVS: Launceston City & Lilydale
NVS: Invermay, Kings Meadows Punchbowl, Launceston, Maybray, Newnham
Mayfield, Newstead, Norwood, Prospect Vale Blackstone, Ravenswood, South
Launceston, Summerhill Prospect, Travallyn Waverley St Leonards, West
Launceston, Youngtown - Relbia
Northern Tasmania Region
Defined in TVS as Total Northern Tasmania. Defined in the NVS as Launceston,
Tamar and the North
64
Northern Tasmania room supply
Accommodation supply data provided by Tourism Tasmania via the
Australian Tourism Data Warehouse (ATDW) & Tiger Tour
Operators within the Northern Tasmania & Launceston regions were identified within
the ATDW data, in accordance to regional the definitions
ATDW didnt provide the number of rooms, as previously reported within Tiger Tour
To derive room supply volumes, accommodation reported within the ATDW database was aligned to the
Tiger Tour database (to March 2016)
For those properties within the ATDW database that could not be identified within Tiger Tour, an
independent internet search was undertaken to derive room volumes for each property and to confirm the
type of accommodation provided (hotel, motel, apartment etc.)
In some cases, some of properties reported in 2016 Tiger Tour were not reported within the ATDW. Where
these variations were identified, each property was investigated to determine if they were still available for
booking and if so, were subsequently added to the final room volume
65
Accommodation scope
Accommodation scope
To allow for a volume of rooms required to be provided as the primary output of
the analysis..
..accommodation included is Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest
Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins
Backpackers, Caravan Park sites and Residential Colleges were excluded
As these properties have a different room structure
Some duplications existed in the data where a property was classified under
various different accommodation types
Duplications were resolved by referring to the property name
Property type is derived from property name, for example The Beach Apartments is classified as
Apartments not Self Contained accommodation
Any property including backpacker was classified accordingly, for example The Brunswick Hotel
The Tassie Backpackers = backpacker accommodation and therefore was not included
Any subsequent duplication was dealt with on a case by case basis, with reference to property
website and/or booking websites
66
Room night demand
ABS accommodation survey applied as the primary source of demand
The data is sourced directly from accommodation providers
The survey includes room numbers, room nights and occupancy rates for Hotels,
Motels and Serviced Apartments in Launceston and Northern Tasmania
The survey includes establishments with 15 rooms or more, though splits for accommodation types are
not provided for the Launceston area
This survey is now reported annually, YT June 2016 is the last data point available
The room supply numbers from the ABS for YT June 2016 are 1,126 for
Launceston and 1,803 for Northern Tasmania
This represents a 78% of Launceston room supply and 72% of Northern Tasmania
room supply (as per the total rooms reported in the ATDW & Tiger Tour data)
Launceston defined as Launceston (no further splits available in the data)
Northern Tasmania data was defined as Launceston, Tamar and the North
67
Determining regional room nights
Applying the ABS data
While the rooms volume (and therefore room nights) are understated due to
incomplete coverage of the entire market..
..the occupancy is representative of a large proportion of total accommodation supply
Hence, these occupancy rates can be applied to Tiger Tour supply volumes to
provide an estimate of total room nights
Assumptions
That average occupancy rates at all establishments reported in the ATDW & Tiger
Tour data are consistent with those reported in the ABS accommodation survey
That the ATDW & Tiger Tour data supplied is applicable to ABS data for the
YT June 2016
Resulting room nights
Average annual occupancy as reported by ABS is 64% for Northern Tasmania and
69% for Launceston in YT June 16
Applied to 2,500 rooms in Northern Tasmania = 912,500 annual room nights
Applied to 1,446 rooms in Launceston = 527,790 annual room nights
68
Hold share outlook
Hold share outlook
The hold share outlook for Tasmania assumes that the state holds its current market
share of national demand as forecast by BDAs AUSMO model
The AUSMO model is an econometric forecasting model which applies historical relationships of economic
factors to tourism demand and projects these relationships into the future on the basis of economic forecasts
in order to forecast national tourism demand
Tasmanias current share of national demand is 3.4% of interstate, 2.8% of inbound, 2.1% of Intrastate
The hold share outlook for Northern Tasmania and Launceston applies the same
process where the regional demand outlook is projected on the basis of holding
current share of national demand
For the purposes of this analysis Launceston demand has been expressed in terms of commercial trips,
this refer to those trips where the visitor (non-edu visitor) stays in any in scope commercial accommodation
i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rentals, Cabins
Commercial trips to Northern Tasmania currently account for the following shares of total national demand:
1.02% of interstate, 0.8% of inbound, 0.25% of Intrastate
Commercial trips to Launceston currently account for the following shares of total national demand: 0.86%
of interstate, 0.71% of inbound, 0.21% of Intrastate
Where noted in the report All purposes demand refers to trips taken for any purpose
Including holidays, visiting friends and relatives, business, conference and other purposes
69
Demand scenarios
70
Sources
Sources
Throughout the report the following sources are used:
Interstate and Inbound demand for Tasmania is sourced from the Tasmanian Visitor Survey
Intrastate demand for Tasmania and Interstate and Interstate and Intrastate demand for Australia is
sourced from the National Visitor Survey
Inbound demand for Australia is sourced from the International Visitor Survey and the Australian Bureau of
Statistics
Accommodation demand is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
Regional accommodation supply data is sourced from the ATDW and room supply is matched to Tiger Tour
to Mar 16
Hotel return on investment data is sourced from IPD
Economic data is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia and
Australian Stock Exchange
Consumer confidence data is sourced from Roy Morgan Research
Airline supply data is sourced from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics
Tourism Tasmania has also supplied T21 Visitor Target volumes, future international air access & future
accommodation development
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BDA MARKETING PLANNING PTY LTD. ABN 31 572 250 601
LEVEL 6, 607 ST KILDA ROAD, MELBOURNE, VICTORIA 3004, AUSTRALIA
TEL +61 3 9514 1400 FAX +61 3 9525 2199 bda@bdamarketing.com.au www.bdamarketing.com.au