Role of transportation in society
Congestion and parking are also
Transportation is a non separable part of any society.
It exhibits a very close relation to the style of life, the
range and location of activities and the goods and
services which will be available for consumption.
Advances in transportation has made possible
changes in the way of living and the way in which
societies are organized and therefore have a great
influence in the development of civilizations. This
chapter conveys an understanding of the importance
of transportation in the modern society by presenting
selected characteristics of existing transportation
systems, their use and relationships to other human
activities.
Economic role of transportation
Economics involves production, distribution and
consumption of goods and services. People depend
upon the natural resources to satisfy the needs of life
but due to non uniform surface of earth and due to
difference in local resources, there is a lot of
difference in standard of living in different societies.
So there is an immense requirement of transport of
resources from one particular society to other. These
resources can range from material things to
knowledge and skills like movement of doctors and
technicians to the places where there is need of them.
@The place, time, quality and utility of goods
An example is given to evaluate the relationship
between place, time and cost of a particular
commodity. If a commodity is produced at point A
and wanted by people of another community at any
point B distant x from A, then the price of the
commodity is dependent on the distance between two
centers and the system of transportation between two
points. With improved system the commodity will be
made less costly at B.
@ Changes in location of activities
The reduction of cost of transport does not have same
effect on all locations. Let at any point B the
commodity is to be consumed. This product is
supplied by two stations A and K which are at two
different distance from B. Let at present the
commodity is supplied by A since it is at a lesser
distance but after wards due to improvement in road
network between B and K, the point K becomes the
supply point of product
Social role of transportation
Transportation has always played an important role
in influencing the formation of urban societies.
Although other facilities like availability of food and
water, played a major role, the contribution of
transportation can be seen clearly from the formation,
size and pattern, and the development of societies,
especially urban centers.
*Formation of settlements
From the beginning of civilization, the man is living
in settlements which existed near banks of major
river junctions, a port, or an intersection of trade
routes. Cities like New York, Mumbai and Moscow
are good
Political role of transportation
The world is divided into numerous political units
which are formed for mutual protection, economic
advantages and development of common culture.
Transportation plays an important role in the
functioning of such political Administration of an
area The government of an area must be able to
send/get information to/about its people. It may
include laws to be followed, security and other
needful information needed to generate awareness.
An efficient administration of a country largely
depends on how effectively government could
communicate these information to all the country.
However, with the advent of communications, its
importance is slightly reduced. Political choices in
transport These choices may be classified as
communication, military movement, travel of
persons and movement of freight. The primary
function of transportation is the transfer of messages
and information. It is also needed for rapid
movement of troops in case of emergency movement
of persons and goods. The political decision of
construction and maintenance of roads has resulted in
the development of transportation system.
Environmental role of transportation
The negative effects of transportation is more
dominating than its useful aspects as far as
transportation is concerned. There are numerous
categories into which the environmental e_ects have
been categorized. They are explained in the
following sections. Growth of transportation has a
very unfortunate impact on the society in terms of
accidents. Worldwide death and injuries from road
accidents have reached epidemic proportions. -killed
and about 15 million injured on the road accidents
annually. Increased variation in the speeds and
vehicle density resulted in a high exposure to
accidents. Accidents result in loss of life and
permanent disability, injury, and damage to property.
An accident also causes numerous non-quantifiable
impacts like loss of time, grief to the near ones of the
victim, and inconvenience to the public. All transport
modes consume energy and the most common source
of energy is from the burning of fossil fuels like coal,
petrol, diesel, etc. The relation between air pollution
and respiratory disease have been demonstrated
bythe fuels releases several contaminants into the
atmosphere, including carbon monoxide,
hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen, and other
particulate matter. Hydrocarbons are the result of
incomplete combustion of fuels. Particulate matters
are minute solid or liquid particles that are suspended
in the atmosphere. They include aerosols, smoke, and
dust particles. These air pollutants once emitted into
the atmosphere , undergo mixing and disperse into
the surroundings. Sound is acoustical energy released
into atmosphere by vibrating or moving bodies where
as noise is unwanted sound produced. Transportation
is a major contributor of noise pollution, especially in
urban areas. Noise is generated during both
construction and operation. During construction,
operation of large equipments causes considerable
the spectacular growth in industrial and economic
growth during the past century have been closely
related to an abundant supply of inexpensive energy
from fossil fuels. Transportation sector is unbelieved
to consume more than half of the petroleum products.
The compact of the shortage of fuel was experienced
during major wars when strict rationing was imposed
in many countries.
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING is a People tend to walk and cycle less when traffic is
cooperative process designed to foster involvement
by all users of the system, such as the business
community, community groups, environmental
organizations, the traveling public, freight operators,
and the general public, through a proactive public
participation process conducted by the Metropolitan
Planning Organization (MPO), state Department of
Transportation (state DOT), and transit operators.
Transportation planning includes a number of steps:
Monitoring existing conditions;
Forecasting future population and employment
growth, including assessing projected land uses in
the region and identifying major growth corridors;
Identifying current and projected future
transportation problems and needs and analyzing,
through detailed planning studies, various
transportation improvement strategies to address
those needs;
Developing long-range plans and short-range
programs of alternative capital improvement and
operational strategies for moving people and goods;
Estimating the impact of recommended future
improvements to the transportation system on
environmental features, including air quality; and
Developing a financial plan for securing sufficient
revenues to cover the costs of implementing
strategies.
PROBLEMS IN TRANSPORTATION
Cities are locations having a high level
of accumulation and concentration of economic
activities and are complex spatial structures that are
supported by transport systems. The larger the city,
the greater its complexity and the potential for
disruptions, particularly when this complexity is not
effectively managed. The most important transport
problems are often related to urban areas and take
place when transport systems, for a variety of
reasons, cannot satisfy the numerous requirements of
urban mobility. Additionally, important transport
terminals such as ports, airports, and rail yards are
located within urban areas, contributing to a specific
array of problems. Some problems are ancient, like
congestion (which plagued cities such as Rome),
while others are new like urban freight distribution or
environmental impacts. Among the most notable
urban transport problems are: Traffic congestion and
parking difficulties. Congestion is one of the most
prevalent transport problems in large urban
agglomerations, usually above a threshold of about 1
million inhabitants. It is particularly linked with
motorization and the diffusion of the automobile,
which has increased the demand for transport
infrastructures. Since vehicles spend the majority of
the time parked, motorization has expanded
the demand for parking space, which has created
space consumption problems particularly in central
areas; the spatial imprint of parked vehicles is
significant.
interrelated since looking for a parking space (called
"cruising") creates additional delays and impairs
local circulation. This practice is often judged more
economically effective than using a paying off-street
parking facility as the time spent looking for a free
(or low cost) parking space as compensated by the
monetary savings. Also, many delivery vehicles will
simply double-park at the closest possible spot to
unload their cargo.. An Therefore, commuters are
trading time for housing affordability. However, long
commuting is linked with several social problems,
such as isolation, as well as poorer health (obesity).
Public transport inadequacy. Many public transit
systems, or parts of them, are either over or under
used. During peak hours, crowdedness creates
discomfort for users as the system copes with a
temporary surge in demand. While in the past deficits
were deemed acceptable because of the essential
service public transit was providing for urban
mobility, its financial burden is increasingly
controversial. Difficulties for non-motorized
transport. These difficulties are either the outcome of
intense traffic, where the mobility of pedestrians,
bicycles and vehicles is impaired, but also because of
a blatant lack of consideration for pedestrians and
bicycles in the physical design of infrastructures and
facilities. Loss of public space. The majority of roads
are publicly owned and free of access. Increased
traffic has adverse impacts on public activities which
once crowded the streets such as markets, agoras,
parades and processions, games, and community
interactions. These have gradually disappeared to be
replaced by automobiles. In many cases, these
activities have shifted to shopping malls while in
other cases, they have been abandoned altogether..
high. High maintenance costs. Cities with an aging of
their transport infrastructure are facing growing
maintenance costs as well as pressures to upgrade to
more modern infrastructure. In addition to the
involved costs, maintenance and repair activities
create circulation disruptions. Delayed maintenance
is rather common since it conveys the benefit of
keeping current costs low, but at the expense of
higher future costs and on some occasion the risk of
infrastructure failure. The more extensive the road
and highway network, the higher the maintenance
cost and the financial burden. Environmental impacts
and energy consumption. Pollution, including noise,
generated by circulation has become a serious
impediment to the quality of life and even the health
of urban populations. Further, energy consumption
by urban transportation has dramatically increased
and so the dependency on petroleum. These
considerations are increasingly linked with peak
mobility expectations where high energy prices incite
a shift towards more efficient and sustainable forms
of urban transportation, namely public transit.
Accidents and safety. Growing traffic in urban areas
is linked with a growing number of accidents and
fatalities, especially in developing countries.
Accidents account for a significant share of recurring
delays. As traffic increases, people feel less safe to
use the streets. Land consumption. The territorial
imprint of transportation is significant, particularly
for the automobile. Between 30 and 60% of a
metropolitan area may be devoted to transportation,
an outcome of the over-reliance on some forms of
urban transportation. Yet, this land consumption also
underlines the strategic importance of transportation
in the economic and social welfare of cities. Freight
distribution. Globalization and the materialization of
the economy have resulted in growing quantities of
freight moving within cities.
PLANNING PROCESS
The primary aim of transport planning is the
identification and evaluation of the future transport
needs. The basis of transport planning process has
been depicted The four main stages of the
transportation planning process are:
(i) Transportation survey, data collection and
analysis; (ii) Use of transportation model;
(iii) Future land use forecasts and alternative policy
strategies; and (iv) Policy evaluation.
Survey and Data Collection:
The entire planning process of transportation, may be
local, regional or national, is based on survey and
data collection. This includes all types of literature
and data (both government and non-government)
available on transportation, journey behaviour
patterns, nature and intensity of traffic, freight
structure, cost and benefits, i.e., income, employment
estimates, etc.
The comprehensive knowledge of traffic flows and
patterns within a defined area is essential. In addition
to traffic data, planners also require land use and
population data for their study area. In this
connection West Midlands Transportation Study
(1968) provides a format, which is useful for
transport survey and data collection. The survey
should be well defined and be divided in zones so
that origins and destinations of trips can be
geographically monitored. The data collection
regarding existing travel patterns is time consuming
as well as a costly affair. It involves both roadside-
interview and home-interview. agencies collaboratively develop a list of short-range
The Transportation Model:
The second stage of the transportation planning
process is to use the collected data to build up a
transportation model. This model is the key to
predicting future travel demands and network needs
and is derived in four recognised stages, i.e., trip
generation, trip distribution, traffic assignment and
model split. Trip Generation:
The first stage of model building process is that of
trip generation. Trips are made for a variety of
purposes and for various land uses. For convenience,
trips are often split into two groups: (i) Home-based
trips: Such trips have one trip end at the home of the
person making the trip, which may be either the
origin or destination of the given trip.
(ii) Non-home-based trips: These have neither origin
nor destination trip-end at the home of the person
making the trip.
Traffic Assignment:
The third stage of the modelling process is that of
traffic assignment, its aim being to stimulate route
choice through a defined transport network. Traffic
assignment may be considered in two parts. First, it
is necessary to define the transport network and
determine criteria for route choice through the
network. Second, using the inter-zonal trip matrix as
the input data, trips are assigned to this network.
When future trip levels are assigned it is possible to
assess deficiencies in the existing transport network
and so determine a list of construction priorities.
Network description refers to the process where the
highway network is broken down into links and
nodes. For each link, data is required on its length,
road type, vehicle travel time and traffic capacity.
When coding the road network, links are usually
identified by the node numbers at each of its ends. In
addition to such route-intersection nodes, zone-
centroid nodes are also defined. In the assignment
process, all traffic originating in a particular traffic
zone is assumed to be loaded on to the network at
this latter type of node.
Future Land Use and Travel Demand Forecasting:
The forecasting of future land use inputs is a
precarious task, for two important reasons. Firstly,
transport planners have to rely on the judgment of to
the types of planner for most of their land use
forecasts. This information is vitally important since
it has a profound effect upon travel forecasts.
Secondly, long-term forecasting is beset with many
statistical problems.
Evaluation:
The final stage of the transportation planning process
is one of evaluating the alternative policies, which
have been suggested. The evaluation stage is
probably the most important of all, yet has received
only limited research attention. An economic
evaluation of transport proposals is necessary
because vehicle-km and road space are commodities,
which are not directly bought and sold.
The technique of cost benefit analysis has
consequently evolved as an investment criterion in
the public sector. As such, it provides an economic
evaluation. On the cost side of the calculation,
estimates are made for capital outlay, land purchase
and maintenance.
METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING
In metropolitan areas with a population over 50,000,
MPOs are responsible for transportation planning.
MPO transportation planning examines travel and
transportation issues and needs in a defined
metropolitan area. It includes an analysis of
socioeconomic characteristics of the region, as well
as an examination of travel patterns and trends. The
planning process includes an analysis of alternatives
for addressing future transportation needs. In
addition to meeting future travel demand, alternatives
must also consider the way the projects affect public
safety, transportation system efficiency, overall
mobility, and the environment. The MPO planning
process involves the participation of key stakeholders
including the business community, community Growth Factor Models
groups, environmental organizations, and Tribal Uniform Factor Method Average Factor Method
governments. Tribes located in or near the Detroit Method Fratar Method Furness Method
metropolitan area will likely be affected by planning Furness Time-function Iteration
decisions made by the MPO. MPOs are required to Synthetic Models
consult with Tribes located within their planning area Gravity/Spatial Interaction Models Opportunity
to ensure that their concerns are addressed and their Models Regression/Econometric Models
needs met. Tribes located adjacent to or near MPO Optimization Models
planning areas should also get involved in the MPO 2.4.1 Growth Factor Models
planning process to ensure Tribal concerns are 1. Uniform Growth Factor Model
recognized and addressed. After the LRTP is A single growth factor for the entire area under study
completed, MPOs, Tribes, and Federal Lands is calculated by dividing the future number of trip
ends for the horizon year by trip ends in the base
transportation projects and services intended to year. The future trips between zones I and j are then
implement the planning vision and goals. These calculated by applying the uniform factor to the base
projects are compiled into the second key planning year trips between zones i and j.
product, the MPO TIP 2. Average Growth Factor Model:-
In this method, the growth factor represents the
average growth associated with both the origin and
Mode Split
destination zones. If Fi and Fj are the growth factors
The second stage of travel demand forecasting
for the zones I and j respectively, then:
process has be identified as captive modal split
Tij = tij(Fi + Fj)
analysis. The second stage of modal split analysis
2
was identified as occurring after the trip distribution
Where Fi = Ti/ti and Fj = Tj/tj
analysis phase. Two submarkets for public
The disadvantages of this model are:
transportation services have been labelled as captive
1.The factors do not have real significance.
transit riders and choice transit riders. The aim of
2.Large number of iterations is required.
captive modal split analysis is to establish
3. Detroit Model: -
relationships that allow the trip ends estimated in the
This method is an improved version of the average
trip generation phase to be partitioned into captive
growth factor method and takes into account the
transit riders and choice transit riders. The purpose of
growth factor for the zones and average growth
choice modal split analysis phase is to estimate the
factor for the entire study area.
probable split of choice transit riders between public
2.4.2 Synthetic Models
transport and car travel given measures of
Gravity Model
generalized cost of travel by two modes. The ratio of
The trip distribution models found most often in
choice trip makers using a public transport system
practice today are "gravity models," so named
varies from 9 to 1 in small cities with poorly
because of their basis in Newtons law. The gravity
developed public transport systems to as high as 3 to
model assumes that the trips produced at an origin
1 in well developed cities. Major determinants of
and attracted to a destination are directly proportional
Public Patronage are 1. Socio economic
to the total trip productions at the origin and the total
characteristics of trip makers 2. Relative cost and
attractions at the destination. The calibrating term or
service properties of the trip by car and that by public
"friction factor" (F) represents the reluctance or
transport. Variables used to identify the status at the
impedance of persons to make trips of various
household level are 1. Household income or car
duration or distances. The general friction factor
ownership directly
indicates that as travel times increase, travelers are
2. The number of persons per household.
increasingly less likely to make trips of such lengths.
3. The age and sex of household members.
Calibration of the gravity model involves adjusting
4. The purpose of the trip.
the friction factor. The socioeconomic adjustment
The modal split models, which have been used
factor is an adjustment factor for individual trip
before the trip distribution phase, are usually referred
interchanges. An important consideration in
to as trip end modal split models. Modal split that
developing the gravity model is "balancing"
have followed the trip distribution phase are
productions and attractions. Balancing means that the
normally termed trip interchange modal spit models.
total productions and attractions for a study area are
Trip end modal split models are used today in
equal.
medium and small sized cities. The basic assumption
of the trip end type models is that transport patronage
MODE CHOICE
is relatively insensitive to the service characteristics
The choice of transport mode is probably one of the
to the transport modes. Modal patronages are
most important classic models in transport planning.
determined principally by the socio economic
This is because of the key role played by public
characteristics of the trip makers. Most of the trip
transport in policy making. Public transport modes
interchanges modal split models incorporate
make use of road space more efficiently than private
measures of relative service characteristics of
transport. Also they have more social benefits like if
competing modes as well as measures of the socio
more people begin to use public transport , there will
economic characteristics of the trip makers. The
be less congestion on the roads and the accidents will
modal split model developed during the southeastern
be less. Again in public transport, we can travel with
Wisconsin transportation study is an example of trip
low cost. have some particular schedule, frequency
end type model. The model-split These factors,
etc. On the other hand, private transport is highly
including time and cost, can be grouped into three
flexible. It provides more comfortable and
broad categories.
convenient travel. It has better accessibility also. The
Characteristics of the traveler -- the trip maker;
issue of mode choice, therefore, is probably the
Characteristics of the trip; and
single most important element in transport planning
Characteristics of the transportation system.
and policy making. It affects the general efficiency
with which we can travel in urban areas. It is
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
important then to develop and use models which are
A trip distribution model produces a new origin-
sensitive to those travel attributes that influence
destination trip matrix to reflect new trips in the
individual choices of mode.
future made by population, employment and other
Factors influencing the choice of mode
demographic changes so as to reflect changes in
The factors may be listed under three groups:
people's choice of destination. They are used to
1. Characteristics of the trip maker : The
forecast the origin destination pattern of travel into
following features are found to be important:
the future and produce a trip matrix, which can be
1. car availability and/or ownership;
assigned in an assignment model of put into a mode
2. possession of a driving license;
choice model. The trip matrix can change as a result
3. household structure (young couple, couple with
of improvements in the transport system or as a result
children, retired people etc.);
of new developments, shops, offices etc and the
4. income; 5. decisions made elsewhere, for example
distribution model seeks to model these effects so as
the need to use a car at work, take children to
to produce a new trip matrix for the future travel
school, etc; 6. residential density.
situation. Trip distribution models connect the trip
2. Characteristics of the journey: Mode choice is
origins and destination estimated by the trip
strongly influenced by:
generation models to create estimated trips. Different
1. The trip purpose; for example, the journey to work
trip distribution models are developed for each of the
is normally easier to undertake by public transport
trip purposes for which trip generation has been
than other journeys because of its regularity and the
estimated .Various techniques developed for trip
adjustment possible in the long run;
distribution modeling are
2. Time of the day when the journey is undertaken.
Growth Factor Models
Synthetic Models
3. Late trips are more difficult to accommodate by
public transport.
3. Characteristics of the transport facility: There
are two types of factors. One is quantitative and the
other is qualitative. Quantitative factors are:
1. relative travel time: in-vehicle, waiting and
walking times by each mode;
2. relative monetary costs (fares, fuel and direct
costs);
3. availability and cost of parking
Qualitative factors which are less easy to measure
are:
1. comfort and convenience
2. reliability and regularity
3. protection, security
ATTRIBUTE
The different travel attributes and their relative
importance as influences on choices among car, bus.
The attributes were: (1) cost, (2) total travel time, (3)
dependability, (4) relaxation, (5) safety from
accidents, (6) use of time while traveling, (7)
flexibility, (8) seat availability, (9) safety from
crime, and (10) waiting time.
The first step in the data analysis was to examine the
inter correlations of the attribute ratings. The purpose
was to identify any groups of highly inter correlated
variables for which the relationships to behavior
might reflect the influence of common underlying
determinants. Three groups of inter correlated
attribute ratings variables were identified: (1) total
time, dependability, waiting time, and, to a lesser
extent, flexibility, (2) relaxation, time use, and to a
lesser extent, safety and seat availability, and (3)
crime safety and waiting time. None of the groups of
variables was sufficiently inter correlated to suggest
that the variables measured predominantly the same
phenomena; however, the Inter correlations should
be considered when evaluating the study results. Seat
availability, crime safety, and waiting time were not
rated for car travel; assuming, however, as seems
reasonable, that car would have been given the
highest possible rating on these attributes, the
differences in evaluations between car and the two
transit modes were substantial. To evaluate the extent
to which the average differences in ratings reflected
average differences in utility, and to estimate other
components of attribute importance, it was necessary
to analyze the relationships, over the study sample,
between the attribute ratings and preferences among
the rated modes. This was done with maximum
likelihood logit analyses. In general, the analyses
indicated that the ratings for all of the attributes were
strongly related to travel mode choice; however, the
relationships were somewhat weaker for the
attributes of relaxation, time use, and accident safety.
Attribute importance was measured with a recently
devised statistic that combined utility coefficients
estimated from the logit analyses with values of the
attribute ratings, over the sample. This statistic
estimated the extent to which each attribute
contributed to differences in utility among the choice
alternatives. In terms of overall importance,
considering choices among all three modes, the
attributes seemed to cluster into several groups
having roughly equal importance statistics. Waiting
time, dependability, total time, and crime safety
appeared to be the most important attributes. Cost,
seat availability, and flexibility appeared to be next
in importance, followed by relaxation and accident
safety. Time use appeared to be the least important
attribute. For choices between the different pairs of
alternatives, the relative importance of the attributes
appeared to be about the same as for choices among
all three modes. Several of the attributes judged to be
most important--including crime
safety, dependability, and seat availability--are not
typically included in quantitative planning
procedures, such as travel demand forecasting or
cost-benefit analysis. The results of this study
suggest that these attributes should be taken more
into account in transportation policy decisions. These
conclusions must be qualified by uncertainties,
discussed above, regarding the extent to which the
observed relationships to behavior for inter correlated
attribute ratings actually reflected the influence of
different underlying policy variables. Additional
research, along lines suggested in the complete
report, is required to clarify these relationships.
In addition to the substantive findings, this study had
value as an illustration of research methodology. The
definitions of attribute importance and corresponding
measurement methods can be applied to research,
based either on subjective or objective data, on a
wide variety of choice behaviors.
TRAVEL DEMAND
Transport and the movement of goods and services
has grown broadly in step with the economy for
many years and, although the relationship for freight
has weakened of late, future expansion of the
national economy is likely to create further growth in
travel demand. Eighteen per cent more people, 60%
more households and six times as many cars have
fuelled a more than trebling in personal travel over
the last fifty years. Now three families out of four
have a car and many more women and elderly people
now drive. On average Britons spend over fifty
pounds a week on private transport nine times as
much as they spend on surface public transport.
Whilst the rate at which we make journeys and the
time we spend doing this has altered little, our travel
patterns are very different from thirty or forty years
ago. Shorter trips on foot, by bike and bus have been
replaced by longer trips by car, and to some extent
train. Air travel has ballooned. The spatial and
temporal freedom of car travel, coupled with the
development of the Motorway system, has allowed
linkages to develop that were never practicable with
even the best public transport networks; and the
corresponding work, business and leisure travel
patterns have become part and parcel of
contemporary life. To varying degrees business and
social behaviour and the built environment have
adapted to take advantage of this freer mobility. Over
the last few years rail use has grown strongly.
Despite this, cars continue to dominate the market for
long distance journeys except for the very longest
where air travel comes into its own - especially for
the rapidly growing overseas travel market. Greater
mobility has allowed the spread of urban areas, lower
densities and increased travel between settlements. In
large towns and cities public transport plays an
important part in meeting travel needs, this is
especially the case in London, but less so in the
suburbs and rural areas where most people now live.
Suburban traffic has been growing and is expected to
increase by a quarter over the next fifteen years.
The increase in freight traffic is a result of more
goods being moved over longer distances. This has
been caused by several intertwined factors. The
structure of British industry and commerce has
changed with a marked move from agriculture and
manufacturing to service industries. The decline of
traditional industries - well oriented to the railway in
both location and business style - has been more than
matched by new economic activity, much of which is
located well away from the railways, and therefore
require the faster and more flexible logistics provided
by road transportation. The performance of road
freight has been improved by the construction of the
Motorway network, the increase in the permitted size
of lorries and the introduction of modern
management and scheduling arrangements. In turn
this has reinforced business practices that rely
particularly on the type of service that road transport
provides. Other changes such as the movements of
large volumes of petroleum products (and gas) have
had their effect with the development of pipeline
networks and coastal shipping, which has also
benefited from the growth in the use of sea dredged
aggregates. The development of the service and retail
sectors, along with changes in business practices has
caused a rapid growth in van traffic which appears to
be encouraged by internet shopping. At the other
extreme international trade has expanded enormously
and much of the consequent traffic is moved by road
to and from ports, airports and the Channel Tunnel.
TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING
Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial
distribution of travel explicitly by means of an
appropriate system of zones. Modeling of demand
thus implies a procedure for predicting what travel
decisions people would like to make given the
generalized travel cost of each alternatives. The base
decisions include the choice of destination, the
choice of the mode, and the choice of the route.
Although various modeling approaches are adopted,
we will discuss only the classical transport model
popularly known as four-stage model (FSM). The
general form of the four stage model is given in
Figure 5:2. The classic model is presented as a
sequence of four sub models: trip generation, trip
distribution, modal split, trip assignment. The models
starts with defining the study area and dividing them
into a number of zones and considering all the
transport network in the system. The database also
include the current (base year) levels of population,
economic activity like employment, shopping space,
educational, and leisure facilities of each zone. Then
the trip generation model is evolved which uses the
above data to estimate the total number of trips
generated and attracted by each zone. The next step
is the allocation of these trips from each zone to
various other destination zones in the study area
using trip distribution models. The output of the
above model is a trip matrix which denote the trips
from each zone to every other zones. In the
succeeding step the trips are allocated to different
modes based on the modal attributes using the modal
split models. This is essentially slicing the trip matrix
for various modes generated to a mode specific trip
matrix. Finally, each trip matrix is assigned to the
route network of that particular mode using the trip
assignment models. The step will give the loading on
each link of the network. The classical model would
also be viewed as answering a series of questions
(decisions) namely how many trips are generated,
where they are going, on what mode they are going,
and finally which route they are adopting. The
current approach is to model these decisions using
discrete choice theory, which allows the lower level
choices to be made conditional on higher choices.
For example, route choice is conditional on the mode
Choice .The highest level to find all the trips Ti
originating from a zone is calculated based on the
data and aggregate cost term Ci***. Based on the
aggregate travel cost Cij** from zone i to the
destination zone j, the probability Pm/ij of trips going
to zone j is computed and subsequently the trips
Tij** from zone i to zone j by all modes and all
routes are computed. Next, the mode choice model
compute the probability Pm/ij of choosing mode m
based on the travel cost Cjm* from zone i to zone j,
by mode m is determined. Similarly, the route choice
gives the trips Tijmr from zone i to zone j by mode m
through route r can be computed. Finally the travel
demand is loaded to the supply model, as stated
earlier, will produce a performance level. The
purpose of the network is usually measured in travel
time which could be converted to travel cost.
Although not practiced ideally, one could feed this
back into the higher levels to achieve real
equilibrium of the supply and demand.
TRIP GENERATION
The first traveler decision to be modeled in the
sequential approach to travel demand and traffic
forecasting is trip generation. The objective of trip
generation modeling is to develop an expression that
predicts exactly when a trip is to be made. This is an
inherently difficult task due to the wide variety of
trip types (working, social/recreational, shopping,
etc.) and activities (eating lunch, exercising, visiting
friends, etc.) undertaken by a traveler in a sample
day, To address the complexity of the trip generation
decision, the following approach is typically taken:
1. Aggregation of decision-making units. Predicting
trip generation behavior is simplified by considering
the trip generation behavior of a household (a group
of travelers sharing the same domicile) as opposed to
the behavior of individual travelers. Such an
aggregation of traveler decisions is justified on the
basis of the comparatively homogeneous nature of
household members (socially and economically) and
household members often intertwined trip
generating activities (joint shopping trips, etc.).
2. Segmentation of trips by type. Different types of
trips have different characteristics that make them
more or less likely to be taken at various times
of the day. For example, work trips are more likely to
be taken in the morning hours than are shopping
trips, which are more likely to be taken during the
evening hours. Also, it is more likely that a traveler
will take multiple shopping trips during the course of
a day as opposed to multiple work trips. To account
for this, three distinct trip types are used: (1) work
trips, including trips to and from work; (2) shopping
trips; and (3) social/recreational trips, which include
vacations, visiting friends, church meetings, sporting
events, and so on.
3. Temporal aggregation. Although research has
been undertaken to develop mathematical
expressions that predict when a traveler is likely to
make a trip , trip generation more often focuses on
the number of trips made over some period of time.
Thus trips are aggregated temporally, and trip
generation models seek to predict the number of trips
per hour or per day.
Typical Trip Generation Models
Trip generation models generally assume a linear
form in which the number of vehicle-based
(automobile, bus, or subway) trips is a function of
various socioeconomic and/or distributional
(residential and commercial) characteristics. An
example of such a model, for a given trip type, is
Ti = b0 + b1z1i + b2z2i ++ bk zki where
Ti = number of vehicle-based trips of a given type
(shopping or social/recreational) in some specified
time period made by household i, bk = coefficient
estimated from traveler survey data and
corresponding to characteristic k, and zki =
characteristic k (income, employment in
neighborhood, number of household members) of
household i.
Trip Generation with Count Data Models
Although linear regression has been a popular
method for estimating trip generation models, there
is a problem in that the estimated linear regression
models can produce fractions of trips for a given time
period.

where
Ti = number of vehicle-based trips of a given type
(shopping or social/recreational) made in some
specified time period by household i, P(Ti) =
probability of household i making exactly Ti trips
(where Ti is a nonnegative integer),
e = base of the natural logarithm (e = 2.718), and
i = Poisson parameter for household i, which is
equal to household is expected number of vehicle-
based trips in some specified time period, E[Ti].