AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF

Shooka Darabi for the degree of Master of Science in Industrial Engineering presented on
July 12, 2013.

Title: Modeling and Analyzing Processes with Infrequent Failures: Implications for
Process Monitoring Policies

Abstract approved: ______________________________________________________

David S. Kim

Continues improvement of industrial systems require constant measuring process

variation and eliminating extraneous variation whenever possible to push the target

measures as close to the ideal value as possible. Statistical Processes Control (SPC)

technique is a very efficient statistical technique for monitoring and controlling processes

variation. In recent years an alternate Shewhart-type statistical quality control charts

called g-chart has been developed for controlling process variation where failure is

infrequent like hospital acquired infections.

However, g-chart, EWMA chart and probability based control charts, which are the main

control charts used for monitoring infrequent failure processes fail to detect changes in

the process quickly enough. As a solution it was proposed to inspect and follow-up on

every failure that occurs in the process.

A mathematical model for the long-run cost of a quality control policy is developed. This

model is used to compare the cost of following up on every failure policy with the cost of

using statistical control chart for monitoring processes.

By comparing the total cost per hour of using statistical control chart method with the

total cost per hour of following up on every failure, it is concluded that following up on

every failure policy results in quick detection of changes in the process and it is also a

more cost efficient method.

Copyright by Shooka Darabi

July 12, 2013

All Rights Reserved

Modeling and Analyzing Processes with Infrequent Failures: Implications for Process
Monitoring Policies

by

Shooka Darabi

A THESIS

submitted to

Oregon State University

in partial fulfillment of

the requirements for the

degree of

Master of Science

Presented July 12, 2013

Commencement June 2014

Master of Science thesis of Shooka Darabi presented on July 12, 2013

APPROVED:

Major Professor, representing Industrial Engineering

Head of the School of Mechanical, Industrial, and Manufacturing Engineering

Dean of the Graduate School

I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State
University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader
upon request.

Shooka Darabi, Author

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First and foremost, I would like to thank my professor and adviser Dr.David Kim for
his valuable guidance and advice. Dr. Kim was helpful, supportive and offered invaluable
assistance and guidance. I also want to express my deepest gratitude to the members of
the supervisory committee, Dr. Sarah Emerson and Dr. Javier Calvo-Amodio. Without
their support and assistance this thesis wouldnt have been successful.

Finally, an honorable mention goes to my family for their love, understanding and
support.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1
2Literature review ....................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1Conventional Shewhart statistical control charts and infrequent failure processes ..................... 4
2.1.1Non-Shewhart statistical methods for infrequent failure process ......................................... 6
2.1.2Statistical charts for infrequent failure processes .................................................................. 7
2.2Non-parametric charts for infrequent failure processes ............................................................... 9
2.2.1Traditional non-parametric charts for infrequent failure processes ...................................... 9
2.3Summary .................................................................................................................................... 12
3Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 13
3.1Quality control scenario and assumptions.................................................................................. 13
3.2Review of control chart methods ............................................................................................... 15
3.2.1The Shewhart g control chart .............................................................................................. 16
3.2.2g-chart with probability distribution-based control limits................................................... 18
3.2.3Exponential Weighted Moving Average control chart ....................................................... 21
3.2.4Control chart performance measurements........................................................................... 23
3.2.5Inspection and following up every failure........................................................................... 24
3.3Control charts versus follow up of every failure what failure probability? ............................ 25
3.4Quality control cost model ......................................................................................................... 26
3.4.1Parameters ........................................................................................................................... 26
3.4.2Cost components ................................................................................................................. 27
3.4.3Fraction of time a process is in control ............................................................................... 27
3.4.4Total cost per unit time ....................................................................................................... 28
3.4.5
 and  using control charts ................................................................................... 28
3.4.6Approximation .................................................................................................................... 30
3.4.7
 and  follow-up each failure ............................................................................ 31
3.5Scenario1- hospital acquired infections ..................................................................................... 32
3.5.1Probability based control chart for hospital acquired infections ......................................... 33
 3.5.2Shewhart g-chart for hospital acquired infections............................................................... 43
3.5.3EWMA chart for hospital acquired infections .................................................................... 47
3.5.4Following up on every failure policy .................................................................................. 50
3.6Scenario2- pace maker manufacturing ....................................................................................... 51
3.6.1Probability based control chart for pace maker manufacturing .......................................... 51
3.6.2Shewhart g-chart for pacemaker manufacturing process ................................................... 55
3.6.3EWMA chart for pacemaker manufacturing ....................................................................... 57
3.6.4Following up on every failure ............................................................................................. 58
4Results .................................................................................................................................................... 59
4.1Comparing probability limit based g-chart with follow up of every failure - hospital
acquired infections ...................................................................................................................................... 59
4.2Comparing Shewhart g-chart with follow up of every failure - hospital infections................... 62
4.3Comparing EWMA with follow up of every failure - hospital acquired infections................... 64
4.4Comparing probability limit based Shewhart g-chart with follow up of every failure -
pacemaker manufacturing case ............................................................................................................... 67
4.5Comparing EWMA with following up of every failure pacemaker manufacturing .................. 69
5Conclusion............................................................................................................................................... 71
6References ............................................................................................................................................... 72
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Example of monitoringthe number of inspections until failure using control charts................. 15
Figure 2 :Comparing total cost per hour of using probabilit based control charts vs. following up
on every failure when d=1 and C/F = 1 ...................................................................................................... 60
Figure 3: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control chart vs. following up
on every failure when d = 1 and C/F = 0.4 ................................................................................................. 62
Figure 4: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when
d = 1and C/F =1 .......................................................................................................................................... 63
Figure 5: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up in every failure when
d = 1 and C/F = 1 ........................................................................................................................................ 64
Figure 6: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when
d = 1 and C/F = 0.05 ................................................................................................................................... 66
Figure 7: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when
d = 1 and C/F = 20 ...................................................................................................................................... 66
Figure 8: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control chart vs. following up
on every failure whe d = 1 and C/F = 1 ...................................................................................................... 67
Figure 9: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when
d = 1 and C/F = 0.1 ..................................................................................................................................... 68
Figure 10: Comapring total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure
when d = 1 and C/F = 1............................................................................................................................... 69
Figure 11: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure
when d = 1 and C/F = 0.25.......................................................................................................................... 70
Figure 12: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control charts vs. following
up on every failure when d = 2 and C/F = 1 ............................................................................................. 110
Figure 13: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control chart vs. following
up on every failure when d = 0.5 and C/F = 1 .......................................................................................... 110
Figure 14: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-charts vs. following up on every failure
when d = 2 and C/F = 1............................................................................................................................. 111
Figure 15: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when
d = 0.5 and C/F = 1 ................................................................................................................................... 111
Figure 16: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure
when d = 2 and C/F = 1............................................................................................................................. 112
 Figure 17: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when
d = 0.5 and C/F = 1 ................................................................................................................................... 112
Figure 18: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control charts vs. following
up on every failure when d = 2 and C/F = 1 ............................................................................................. 113
Figure 19: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control charts vs. following
up on every failure when d = 0.5 and C/F = 1 .......................................................................................... 113
Figure 20: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when
d = 2 and C/F = 1 ...................................................................................................................................... 114
Figure 21:Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when
d = 0.5 and C/F =1 .................................................................................................................................... 114
Figure 22: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure
when d = 2 and C/F = 1............................................................................................................................. 115
Figure 23: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure
when d = 0.5 and C/F = 1.......................................................................................................................... 115
 LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1: Shewhart g-chart formulas ....................................................................................................... 18

Table 3.2: Probability distribution based control limits for the known rate of .................................... 21
Table 3.3: Exponential Weighted Moving Average control limits ........................................................... 23
Table 3.4: values of constant parameters in hospital acquired infection case ........................................... 41
Table 3.5: Estimated values of constant parameters in pacemaker manufacturing process ...................... 54
 LIST OF APPENDICES

Appendix1 ................................................................................................................................................. 75
Appendix2 ................................................................................................................................................. 83
Appendix3 ................................................................................................................................................. 90
Appendix4 ................................................................................................................................................. 98
Appendix5 ............................................................................................................................................... 102
Appendix6 ............................................................................................................................................... 100
Appendix 7-Hospital graphs.................................................................................................................... 110
Appendix8 -Pacemaker manufacturing graphs ....................................................................................... 113
 1

1 Introduction

The research presented in this thesis addresses the question of when more

common statistical quality control charts should be used to monitor processes that are

considered to have infrequent failures. Two particular applications that will be used as

examples are the monitoring of the infection rate in a hospital, and the monitoring of

component defects in pacemaker assembly processes. These examples can be used to

clarify the general features of the quality monitoring scenario considered that are

applicable to more applications. In both applications units are inspected individually

and either pass or fail the inspection. In the infection rate application, units are patients

and inspections are patient examinations. Failure of the inspection is testing positive for

an infection. In the pacemaker assembly example units are electronic components, and

inspections are actual inspections that are either passed or failed. The probability of a

failure of an individual inspection is assumed to be the same. A variety of statistical

quality control chart methods can be applied, but some methods have been developed for

the scenario described.

Relatively recently a statistical quality control chart called a g-chart has been

developed for monitoring processes similar to the infection and pacemaker assembly

applications. They have been applied to processes with infrequent failures where the

failure rate is usually less than 1%. g-charts have been applied in healthcare, where the

failure rate is infrequent. Some examples are, using g-chart for monitoring the number

of cases between hospital acquired infections, heart surgery complications, contaminated

 2

needle sticks and surgical site infections (Benneyan 1999). In the g-chart, charts monitor

the numbers of cases (patients) between two successive failures (infections, heart surgery

complications )

Medical processes are a big national concern and various techniques for making

these processes more efficient and consistent have been applied. Hospitals have been

encouraged to use statistical process control tools such as Statistical Process Control

(SPC) charts for improving and monitoring their processes. The objective of SPC is to

monitor processes and systematically identify problems and remove them.

Motivated from the use of g-charts for health care applications, the author of this

thesis tried to develop a g-chart for monitoring the failure rate in a pacemaker

manufacturing process which, because of the type of product, also has infrequent

failures. A pacemaker is composed of numbers of components, and pacemaker failure is

mostly from component failure, and pacemaker failure due to other reasons, like operator

error, machine error and others can be neglected. Since pace makers are very sensitive

products, before final assembly, all the components are tested to minimize pacemaker

failure due to component failures. Because of this, the failure probability of a component

in final assembly is very small. On average, 1 in every 2000 capacitors fails (failure rate

0.05%). Thus, the monitoring process of final assembly of components in pacemakers

can be placed in the infrequent failure category and quality tools designed for infrequent

failure analysis should be used for monitoring the process.

The g-chart that was developed for monitoring pacemaker manufacturing process

failed to capture changes in the final assembly process. This was concluded by testing the
 3

chart with historical data. Based on this result, the author became motivated to study

why a chart that is designed specifically for monitoring infrequent failures doesnt

perform as it is intended? In addition, if a g-chart is not helpful in monitoring infrequent

failure processes, what are other methods that can be used in this type of situations?

The first section of this thesis is the literature review, presenting relevant research

on application of statistical process control chart methods to infrequent failure processes.

The second section describes the methodology. It includes description of a cost model

for the long run cost of monitoring a process and applications of this model to two

specific scenarios. The third section summarizes sensitivity analyses and presents more

general results as well as the specific analyses performed and results obtained. Finally,

the conclusions of this research are discussed in the last section.

 4

2 Literature review

In this section, a brief summary of relevant research is presented. The section

starts with a short summary of statistical process control methods. Later the use of the

statistical process control methods and their short coming in infrequent failure processes

will be addressed. The section ends with presenting some other alternative methods that

have been developed for monitoring infrequent failure processes for both parametric and

non-parametric data.

2.1 Conventional Shewhart statistical control charts and infrequent failure

processes

Many industrial processes are complicated and operate in a noisy unpredictable

environment. This means processes are subject to variation. Some of this variation

originates from natural causes that exist in every type of environment. These types of

variation usually have been referred to as chance causes and are present to some degree

in every process. Beside chance causes, there are other sources of variation that occur due

to a process change called assignable causes. Differentiating between chance and

assignable causes and eliminating assignable causes are the objective of Statistical

Process Control (SPC) Charts.

The basic methodology of control charts consist of sampling from a process over

time and monitoring a process measurement over time. Controls charts have a center line

and an upper and lower control limit established from process measurements. When a

measurement falls within the upper and lower control limit, no action is required, but
 5

whenever the measurement falls outside of the control limits, a possible assignable cause

is deemed possible and further investigation to determine the root cause and correct if

necessary (Montgomery, 2007; Oakland, 2012).

Count charts are SPC charts that are used for situations when the monitored

statistic is based on the number of nonconforming items in a sample, or the number of

defects in an item. The p-chart and the c-chart are the two most well-known types of

count charts. The p-chart is used for monitoring the ratio of the number of

nonconformities to the sample size. The c-chart is used to monitor total number of

nonconformities per unit (Montgomery, 2007). These charts have a broad range of

applications. Nevertheless, in a study conducted by Ozsan et al. 2009, it is argued that

these charts underperform in an environment where the failure occurrence is low. In this

case, failure counts in many fixed time intervals will be zero leading to narrow control

limits which will cause frequent false alarms.

Another drawback of using count charts for monitoring infrequent failure

processes is the symmetrical shape of the control charts. The 3-sigma control limits are

derived from the original Shewhart control chart which assumes the monitored data is

normally distributed or is asymptotically normal. When using p-charts and c-charts for

monitoring frequent failure processes Binomial distribution and Poisson distributions are

approximately normal and therefore having symmetrical control charts with 3- sigma

control limits is well justified. However in an infrequent failure process, the normality

assumption of the p-chart and c-chart is questionable (Chan et al. 2000).

In addition, using count charts for situations where the failure rate is low results in

a negative lower control limit. Since a negative lower control limit is meaningless, it is
 6

replaced with 0. Without a positive lower control limit it is impossible to identify

downward shifts of the process which is an indication of improvement (Chan et al. 2007).

A low defect rate also negatively impacts the upper control limit. A rule of thumb

(Chan et al. 2000) says, in a p-chart the upper control limit should be smaller than the


inverse value of the sample size . In infrequent failure process this means the UCL

would be set so low that every defect exceeds the upper control limit and triggers a

signal. In this case the false alarm probability is much greater than the desired value of

0.00135 (Chan et al. 2000).

In another study, Goh 1987 also confirms that even for very high yield process

with a defect rate lower than one percent there is poor low performance of the count

charts.

2.1.1 Non-Shewhart statistical methods for infrequent failure process

The inability of common Shewhart control charts for detecting out of control

processes in environments with a low failure rate has resulted in the development of other

methods and techniques for monitoring infrequent failure processes. In this section some

other control chart techniques for low failure processes are reviewed.

When the fraction of non-conforming is low and a normal approximation which is

the basis of 3-sigma control charts in invalid, some studies suggest using control limits

derived from the distribution of the statistic monitored. Goh (2007) explains the method

used to identify control limits derived from the Poisson probability distribution for the

number of defects in a sample.

 7

A similar study conducted by Benneyan (2001) utilized control charts with

probability distribution based limits for monitoring low failure processes, when the

monitored statistics has a geometric distribution. In this method control limits are

derived directly from geometric distribution.

In another study, Nelson (1994) suggested counting the total number of the

defects (denoted c) in a sample with size n and develop control charts for the

transformed variable  . Although, it has been demonstrated that this method works well

for infrequent event processes, a disadvantage with this method is that the interpretation

of the original data is hard and in some cases meaningless.

2.1.2 Statistical charts for infrequent failure processes

Different methods and techniques presented above, both Shewhart and non-

Shewhart techniques, all showed limitations when it comes to monitoring processes with

infrequent failures. To overcome this problem some specific control charts have been

developed specifically for this purpose. In this section a brief explanation of methods

designed specifically for infrequent failure processes is presented.

Since the conventional charts like p, np, u and c chart often result in subgroups

being plotted too infrequently in an infrequent failure process. An alternative chart was

designed by Benneyan (1999; 2001) mainly for the purpose of monitoring failures in an

infrequent failure environment. The charts developed are the g-chart and h-chart. These

charts monitor the number of events between occurrences of two successive failures.

These occurrences can be the number of conforming items between two consequence

failures, or days between two failures. In the g-chart, the monitored statistics follows a
 8

geometric distribution. In the h-chart, the monitored statistic is the number of conforming

items until the n-th failure, which also follows a geometric distribution (Benneyan 1999;

Benneyan 2001; Benneyan 2001; Benneyan and Kaminsky 2004; Glushkovsky 1994).

For infrequent failure processes, studies show that these charts can be applied to

both the first phase of the process, to bring the process into statistical control, as well as

the second phase of the process which is to monitor the in control process (Benneyan

2001).

An alternative SPC chart for infrequent failures when the failures occur

according to Poisson process was proposed by Chan et al (2000). A cumulative quantity

control chart (CQC) monitors the occurrence of nonconformities in a process with a

constant rate of defects ( ) per number of products in sample. Q is defined as the

number of units until the first defect is observed and it follows an exponential

distribution. Based on the information above the control limits have been defined as,

ln  
Q   2

1
ln 2
Q  


ln 1  2
Q  

Although the CQC chart has been showed to perform well when the failure rate

of processes is low or moderate, there is another version of the CQC chart called

CQC(2), which has the virtue of being more sensitive to smaller shifts and makes it more

desirable in infrequent failure processes. CQC(2) also assumes the occurrence of

nonconformities follows a Poisson process, but the statistic that is being monitored in this
 9

case is the time until the second failure occurs. This statistic follows a gamma

distribution and control limits are based on that.

2.2 Non-parametric charts for infrequent failure processes

The alternative Shewhart-like control charts that are designed specifically for

infrequent failure processes were presented. However, in the presented methods

presented there are some assumptions about the distribution of the data, and charts are not

robust to these assumption. In the following chapter some non-parametric charts that

dont make any assumptions about the distribution of data are presented for infrequent

failure processes.

2.2.1 Traditional non-parametric charts for infrequent failure processes

In this section the traditional non-parametric charts and their specifications and

performance when applied to infrequent failure processes are described.

Non-parametric charts which are also known as distribution free charts can be

applied to a broad range of situations. Nonparametric charts are an effective alternative

when the distribution of the data is unknown or doesnt follow a known distribution.

Studies show that these charts are very effective in detecting shifts for non-normal

distributions, especially those with heavy tails (Chakraborti et al. 2004). Furthermore,

these charts have the advantage of having the same in-control run length for all

continuous distributions as well as being more robust to outliers (Chakraborti et al. 2004).

When failures are infrequent and the data doesnt follow a particular distribution

non-parametric charts can be applied to the situation, using the number/time of events
 10

between defective units as a statistic. The two well-known non-parametric charts are the

exponential weighted moving average EWMA and the cumulative sum chart CUSUM.

These charts are very effective in detecting minor and persistent shifts (Montgomery

2007). EWMA and CUSUM control charts can be used for monitoring either attribute or

variable type data using the entire data history. EWMA charts are developed based on

monitoring the exponentially weighted moving average of prior sample means. In

CUSUM charts a sequential technique method is used which keep tracks of the

cumulative sum of prior samples. (Montgomery 2007)

Although many studies including Montgomery (2001, p.433) have pointed out

that It (EWMA) is almost a perfectly nonparametric (distribution-free) procedure some

other studies give evidence against that. For instance a study conducted by Graham et. al.

(2012) shows that, for EWMA charts it is usually assumed that the underlying

distribution of the process of the sub-group averages is normal or it is asymptotically

normal (Graham et. al. 2012). In addition Human et al (2011) shows that EWMA is not

robust to non-normal distributions and would incorrectly show the process is out of

control. Borror and Montgomery (1999), also show that the statement about EWMA

being a nonparametric procedure is true when the process parameters are known or

specified. When the parameters are unknown and need to be estimated from sample of

data, EWMA is showed that is non-robust to non-normal distributions. If the parameters

are estimated from the sample, this will result in many more false alarms in the Average

Run Length chart (Graham et. al 2012).

In case of CUSUM charts, Acosta-Meja (2009) argues that in many cases

parametric charts are not effective in detecting shifts due to the violation of the
 11

assumptions made about the data distribution and sees the CUSUM chart as a better

choice. However, sensitivity of Average Run Length (ARL) show significant differences

between the charts from normally distributed data and those that are based on non-normal

data.

Graham et al. (2011 a,b) proposed a nonparametric EWMA chart which is based

on a sign and rank sum test when the median is known or specified. Although this

method is non-parametric, when the median is unknown and estimated from data, the

chart underperforms with an increase in the false alarm rate.

An alternative distribution-free EWMA chart was developed by Graham et al.

(2012) called EWMA_EX. EWMA-EX is a non-parametric symmetrical EWMA chart

based on exceedance test statistics.

Further analysis indicates that the EWMA-EX chart performs as good or better

than parametric CUSUM and EWMA charts for detecting small mean shifts . Even in

comparison with other recently developed nonparametric CUSUM or EWMA chart like

the EWMA based on the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistics, EWMA-EX still performs

better. These points as are proved by comparing the ARL charts of the different methods

(Graham et al. 2012).

In a study conducted by Mukherjee et al. 2012, a non-parametric CUSUM chart is

developed based on the exceedance statistic called exceedance CUSUM chart. This new

non-parametric CUSUM chart like the EWMA_EX chart is more effective method in

detecting a shift in the unknown location of the parameter of a continuous distribution.

Further analysis show that these charts are more powerful in detecting shifts in the

process than traditional CUSUM and rank-based CUSUM charts. It is showed that these
 12

charts perform very well in cases when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed and

right-skewed.

2.3 Summary

In this section a brief summary of earlier literature was presented. The main

objective was to describe methods that were developed for use in an infrequent failure

environment, both for monitoring statistics that follows a specific distribution and when

the monitored statistic does not follow any particular distribution. No research was found

that examines when some type of statistical quality control chart should be used to

monitor a process with infrequent failures. Not using statistical control charts to monitor

a process, and investigating every failure is a reasonable alternative when failures are

infrequent and the cost of running a process out of control is high. The research in this

thesis investigates this topic.

In the next section, a general mathematical model for the long run cost of

monitoring a process is developed that facilitates the choice of appropriate monitoring

method for infrequent failure processes.

 13

3 Methodology

The question that is addressed in this research is: What is an infrequent failure

probability with respect to implementing statistical quality control? Alternatively the

question can be asked as: At what failure probability will statistical quality control result

in lower average costs than follow-up of every failure?

To answer this question a mathematical model for the long-run cost of a quality

control policy is developed. This model is then used to compare the policy of following

up on every failure versus using some statistical control chart method and following up

only after alarm signals are generated.

The remainder of this section starts with a presentation of the characteristics of

the specific quality control scenario being addressed. This is followed by a review of the

different control chart methods that will be analyzed. The details of the cost model for a

quality control policy will then be explained.

3.1 Quality control scenario and assumptions

In the scenario considered the rational sub-group is equal to one; meaning a data

sample of size one is collected and monitored over time. The particular data item

represents the number of units inspected until a failure occurs. In this scenario a unit

may represent a variety of entities depending on the specific application. For example a

unit may be a product, a patient, etc. It is assumed that there are individual inspections on

each unit and a unit either passes the inspection, or fails to meet the predefined

requirements of the unit. A failure may represent a variety of conditions depending on

the application. For example if the unit is a product, a failure means the product did not
 14

meet specific product requirements, and if the unit is a patient then failure may mean the

patient suffered an infection. The monitored statistic is the number of units between

failures and this statistic can be converted to time between failures if the inspection time

per unit is known.

It will be assumed that each unit has the same probability of passing an

inspection, and that this probability remains fixed between changes at discrete time

points. These changes normally represent a shift to an out-of-control state, or the return

of an out-of-control process back to control. A smaller failure probability can be

interpreted as an increase in process quality, and higher probability can be interpreted as

a decrease in process quality. Under the scenario described the monitored statistic (units

between failures) has a geometric distribution.

If a quality control chart is being utilized to monitor the number of units between

failures the x-axis represents the failure number, and the y-axis is the number of

inspections until failure.

Figure 1 shows an example of such a control chart.

 15

Figure 1: Example of monitoringthe number of inspections until failure using control charts

When using a control chart lower and upper control limits are computed and set

according to the control chart assumptions. Every point (failure) that plots above the

upper control limit or below the lower control limit generates a signal. For the situation

described, when a point plots above the upper control limit the quality of the process may

have improved, and when a point plots below the lower control limit it is an indication

that process quality may be worse. Note that in cases where the LCL is equal to zero, the

control chart loses its ability to detect increases in the failure probability.

3.2 Review of control chart methods

Infrequent failure processes occur in situations where failing to detect problems

results in potentially catastrophic (or very costly) results. By nature the products being

monitored are very sensitive and even one failure is not acceptable.
 16

Some of the examples of infrequent failure processes are heart surgery

complications, catheter related infections, surgical site infections, contaminated needle

sticks, and other patient acquired outcomes (Benneyan 1999). Some examples of

infrequent failure manufacturing processes are aerospace product production, and

medical device final assembly processes.

Monitoring processes using standard charts like (p, np, u and c chart) results in

subgroups being plotted too infrequently for timely control chart feedback (Benneyan

2001). Therefore, these control chart methods are not informative and are not helpful in

detecting process changes.

In the following sections, three control charts that were developed for the scenario

described, and which have been applied detect process changes in infrequent failure

process are introduced. These charts are the Shewhart g-chart, the g-chart with

probability based control chart limits, and the Exponential Weighted Moving Average

(EWMA) control chart.

3.2.1 The Shewhart g control chart

A control chart is developed for when the number of trials between events is

monitored, and the distribution of the number of trials between events is geometrically

distributed is called a g-chart. Each trial is an independent Bernoulli trial, and the number

of trials until the first event (failure), Z, follows a geometric distribution with probability

mass function:

!"  #$  %!1  %$&

'() #  1, 2, 3,
(1)
 17

The expected value and variance of Z are:

1
-!"$ 
%
(2)

1%
./)!"$ 
%0
(3)

p is typically estimated from data and the maximum likelihood estimator of p is

1
% 
"
(4)

Where " is the sample average of a fixed number of individual observations of Z

(for example the average number of failed capacitors or average days between

infections). The g-chart was developed specifically for a process similar to the scenario

being addressed.

The parameter k represents the number of standard deviations from the centerline

used to define upper and lower control limits. Usually k is three; meaning control limits

are 3 sigma from the center line. The lower control limit (LCL), and upper control limit

(UCL) are:
;
1 1%
234  56 7 8 #9 0 :
% %
(5)

<
1 1%
434  56 7  #9 0 :
(6)

% %

For these limits the actual type I error may be less than stated due to the discrete

nature of the geometric distribution. Alternative control limits where the type I error level

is greater than stated are computed as

 18

<
1 1%
234  56 7 8 #9 0 :
(7)

% %

;
1 1%
(8)
434  56 7  #9 0 :
% %

p Known p Estimated

;
1 1% " 8 #=" !"  1$;
Upper Control Limit
56 7 8 #9 0 :
(UCL) % %

1 "
%
Center Line (CL)

<
1 1% "  #=" !"  1$<
56 7  #9 0 :
Lower Control Limit

(LCL) % %

Table 3.1: Shewhart g-chart formulas

Table 3.1 summarizes the computation of the Shewhart upper control limit

(UCL), center line (CL) and lower control limit (LCL) for a g control chart used to

monitor individual observations of Z.

3.2.2 g-chart with probability distribution-based control limits

An alternative that is helpful for situations where Shewhart control charts limits

(particularly the LCL) would be well below zero (and thus set to zero) is to derive the

control limits directly from the assumed distribution of the data. This method can be

applied to almost any control chart but it is especially helpful when the distribution of the
 19

monitored statistics is not normal or symmetric as is the case when the monitored statistic

is from a geometric distribution with a small p value. Note that this method can be

applied to any other distribution with known Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF).

Assume >?@? and >A@? are the desired type I error rates (false alarm rate) for the

lower control limit and upper control limit respectively. In most cases it is assumed

>?@?  >A@? 
BCDEFG
0
.

The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of Z is:

'!#$  !" H #$  1  !1  %I $&

'() #  1,2,3,
(9)

where %I is the in-control probability that a unit will fail inspection. The

probability of having a random variable Z smaller or equal to the LCL when the process

is in control is obtained by replacing k with the LCL:

!" H 434$  1  !1  %I $?@?

J
(10)

where K< is x rounded down to an integer.

By using the geometric CDF the probability that a random variable plots at or

beyond the upper control limit when the process is in control is computed as:

!" L 234$  1  !" M 234$ (11)

 1  N1  !1  %I $A@? O if the UCL is non-integer, and

J

 1  1  !1  %I $A@?<  if the UCL is integer.

By setting the above results equal to the desired type I error rate result in:

>?@?  !" H 434$  1  !1  %I $?@? (12)

>A@?  !" L 234$  !1  %I $A@? (13)

 20

Solving the equations for LCL and UCL it result in having :

ln!>A@? $ ;
234   
ln!1  %I $
(14)

PQ!1  >?@? $ <

434   
PQ!1  %I $
(15)

For these limits the actual type I error is less than stated due to the discrete nature

of the geometric distribution. Alternative control limits where the type I error level is

greater than stated are computed as:

ln!>A@? $ <
234   
ln!1  %I $
(16)

PQ!1  >?@? $ ;
434   
PQ!1  %I $
(17)

Similarly the center line can be computed by setting the probability of a random

variable being smaller than Center Line (CL) to be 0.5.

!" H 34$  1  !1  %I $@?  0.5 (18)

Solving the equation above gives:

PQ0.5
34 
PQ!1 8 %I $
(19)

The results above are summarized in the table below.

Control Limits Formulas for known U

ln!>A@? $ ;
234   
ln!1  %I $
Upper Control Limit (UCL)
 21

PQ0.5
34 
PQ!1 8 %I $
Control Limit (CL)

ln!1  >?@? $ <

434   
ln!1  %I $
Lower Control Limit (LCL)

Table 3.2: Probability distribution based control limits for the known rate of 

3.2.3 Exponential Weighted Moving Average control chart

An Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart is an

alternative control chart method often used for in-control processes. EWMA charts are

useful for detecting small mean shifts and are applicable to situations where the rational

subgroup size is one. The other advantage with EWMA charts is that unlike other

Shewhart control charts; EWMA charts are insensitive to the normality assumption and

thus perform well when the sample size is equal to one. However recent research showed

that robustness to the normality assumption is true under the condition that distribution

parameters are known (Borror, et al. 1999). The EWMA statistic that is monitored is

defined as:

VW  XKW 8 !1  X$VW< (20)

X is defined as smoothing parameter which is constant value between zero and 1

(0 M X M 1). KW is the current observation. The starting value VI for sample size Y  1 is

defined as:

VI  ZI

And ZI is the process mean.

 22

The control limits for a EWMA chart are:

X
234  ZI 8 4[9! $ 1  !1  X$0W 
2X
(21)

X
434  ZI  4[9! $ 1  !1  X$0W 
(22)

2X

L determines the width of control charts. As Y increases the term 1  !1  X$0W 

approaches to one. Thus, when running a process for a long time the control limits

approach a steady limit. Due to discrete nature of monitoring statistics here are two

alternatives for control limits.

X
234  ZI 8 4[96 7  ;
2X
(23)

X
434  ZI  4[9!
(24)
$ <
2X

For these limits the actual type I error is less than stated due to the discrete nature

of the geometric distribution. Alternative control limits where the type I error level is

greater than stated are computed as:

X
434  ZI  4[9! $ ;
2X
(25)

234  ZI 8 4[=0<\  <

\ (26)
 23

The results above are summarized in the table 3.3.

Control Limits Formulas for early stages Formulas for steady

stage

X X
ZI 8 4[ 9! $ 1  !1  X$0W ; ZI 8 4[9!
Upper Control
2X $ ;
Limit (UCL) 2X

X X
ZI  4[ 9! $ 1  !1  X$0W < ZI  4[9!
Lower Control
2X $ <
Limit (LCL) 2X

Table 3.3: Exponential Weighted Moving Average control limits

3.2.4 Control chart performance measurements

Control chart performance can be evaluated based on how frequent false alarms

are generated when the process is in control, and how frequent an alarm is signaled when

the process is out of control. This performance is measured by Average Run Length

(ARL). ARL0 is a measure of the average time between false alarms when in control.

ARL1 is a measure of the average time between alarms when out of control.

The number of inspections until a failure is geometrically distributed so ARL are

expressed in terms of the number of inspections until an out of control signal is

generated. That is:

1
]^4 
%)(_/_YP`a (b cYdQ/P
(27)
 24

1
]^4I 
1  !434 M " M 234 | %  %I $
(28)

1
]^4 
1  !434 M " M 234 | % f %I $
(29)

The Average Time to Signal (ATS) is the average time until an out of control

signal is generated (Montgomery, 2001). If the inspections are conducted on average

every t time units then the ATS is:

]gh  ]^4 ` (30)

In more common Shewhart control charts, plotting beyond control limits generate

signals with different meanings. Signals above the UCL normally are an indication of a

decrease in the quality, and signals below the LCL normally indicate an improvement in

process quality. For g-charts this is the opposite, since the monitored statistic is the

number of units until a failure occurs. A lower statistic means the decreased quality.

For the cases when the LCL is equal to zero, the g-chart loses the ability to detect

an increase in the process failures (Benneyan, 1999).

To overcome the problem of zero LCL, and improve the power of detection of

processes changes, several design considerations have been proposed. Some of these

design considerations are narrower limits or the use of within-limit supplementary

rules(Benneyan 2001).

3.2.5 Inspection and following up every failure

Another approach that can be used when failures are infrequent is to

conduct follow-up after every failure to determine if a process shift has occurred. This
 25

can be a useful approach if failures occur infrequently and the costs of increased failures

are very high. This is the situation for the production of pacemakers.

3.3 Control charts versus follow up of every failure what failure

probability?

The different control charts reviewed have been proposed for use in the situations

described in section 3.2. Regardless of what control chart that is being used, when the

LCL is equal to zero, the charts lose their ability to detect increase in the failure

probability and may not be very useful and informative. This occurs when the failure

probability is low or failures are infrequent. Another option is to follow-up every

failure. This method is not practical and not a cost-efficient approach when the failure

rate is not low or failures are not infrequent.

If a follow up every failure policy is used when failures are infrequent, an

important question is: what failure probability defines infrequent failures, or what is the

cut-off between infrequent failures and frequent failures? When is it better to inspect and

follow-up every failure, and when should control charts be used for monitoring

processes? Which one of these methods is more beneficial from a cost perspective?

To answer these questions a cost model is developed that can be used to identify

infrequent failures for specific scenarios. This model is presented in the next section.
 26

3.4 Quality control cost model

The notation used to describe the model.

3.4.1 Parameters

3 Cost per hour of running a process which is out of control.

-!j$ Expected time a process is in control, after control is established.

k Shift fraction from p0.

' Cost of signal follow up.

` Average time between inspections.

%I In control probability of failure

%I The cut-off probability between infrequent and frequent failures.

The model developed generates a cost per unit of time for following a specific

quality control policy. For simplicity and clarity hours will be used as the time unit. The

overall cost per hour is comprised of two components. The first component is the cost per

hour of signal follow-up, when the process is in control (Cost IC). The second component

is the cost per hour of operating a process when the probability of failure has shifted from

%I to %I 8 k%I , plus the cost of follow-up (Cost OC). The total cost per hour is a

weighted average of the two cost components and is computed based on the percentage of

being in control (% IC), and the percentage of being out of control (% OC). The overall

cost function is:

g(`/P 3lhg  % n3 3(c` n3 8 % l3 3(c` l3

 27

3.4.2 Cost components

The long-run average in control cost per hour is the cost of signal follow-up when

the probability of a failure is %I . This cost per hour is the signal follow-up cost divided by

the average time between signals when the process is in control. The average time

between signals when the process is in control is ]ghI and 3(c` n3 is computed as:

'
3(c` n3 
]ghI
(31)

where ]ghI  ` ]^4I (32)

and ]^4I is the average number of inspections between signals.

The out of control cost per hour is the cost of signal follow-up when the

probability of failure has shifted from %I to %I 8 k%I and process is out of control (OC).

This cost is the cost per hour of running an out-of-control process plus the signal follow-

up cost divided by the expected time to signal after the process is out of control.

'
3(c` l3  3 8
-o
(33)

Y is the time the process stays in an out of control state. The calculation of -o

will be presented in the next section.

3.4.3 Fraction of time a process is in control

A process can be in one of the two states: in control, or out of control. Let

j = The time until the process shifts from %I once %I is established.

o = The time the process remains in an out of control state.

 28

After establishing control a process remains in control for time j; then it

switches to out of control and stays out of control for time o ; then the process is brought

back to an in-control state and remains in control for time j0; then it goes out of control

and remains out of control for time o0 ; and so forth.

If the sequence of pjq r and sequence of poq r for Q L 1, are sequences of X and Y

and are independent and identically distributed, then the long-run fraction of time the

process is in control is according to Alternating Renewal Process Theorem (Ross 1996).

-j
% n3 
-j 8 -o
(34)

Similarly

-o
% l3 
-j 8 -o
(35)

3.4.4 Total cost per unit time

The total cost per hour for a quality control policy is,

-j ' -o

g(`/P 3(c`  6 78 !3
-j 8 -o ]ghI -j 8 -o

'
(36)
8 $
-o

The values of ]ghI and -o are determined by the quality control policy being

adopted.

3.4.5
 and  using control charts

 29

The average time to signal when a process is in control = ]ghI  ` ]^4I .

1
]^4I  !  1$ -"|434 M " M 234
!cYdQ/P|%  %I$
(37)
8 -"|" M 434 () " s 234

-"|434 M " M 234 is the expected value of " given all the values of " (the

number of inspections until a failure) are in control and is computed as following:

-"|434 M " M 234

A@?<

 t Y !"  Y|434 M " M 234$

(38)

Wu?@?;

!"  Y$
!"  Y|434 M " M 234$ 
!434 M " M 234$
(39)

!434 M " M 234$  '!234$  '!434$ (40)

-"|" M 434 () " s 234 is the expected value of " given the values of " (the

number of inspections until a failure) are out of control and is computed as following.

-"|" M 434() " s 234 (41)

 -"|" H 434

!" H 234$

!" H 434$ 8 !" L 234$

8 -"|" L 234

!" L 234$

!" H 434$ 8 !" L 234$
 30

-o is the average time a process remains out of control, and equals the average

time until a signal is generated when the process is out of control. -o is computed by

multiplying the average time between inspections by the average number of inspections

until a signal when the probability has shifted, from %I to %I 8 k%I .

-o|%  %I 8 k%I   ` ]^4 (42)

]^4 is the average number of inspections until a signal is generated if a process

is out of control. When utilizing control charts,

1
]^4  !  1$ -"|434
!hYdQ/P|%I  %I 8 k%I $

M"
(43)

M 234 8 -"|" M 434 () " s 234

3.4.6 Approximation

For small values of pI , the value of -"|434 M " M 234can be approximated

as 0.98 of w . As an example compare -"|434 M " M 234s exact value and their

x

approximation value for different %I .

For %I = 0.01 when UCL =658 and LCL=0 , -"|0 M " M 658 = 99.108 and the

approximation value is 98.

For pI = 0.02 when UCL =658 and LCL=0 , EZ|0 M " M 658 = 49.998 and the

approximation value is 49.

For %I = 0.05 when UCL =129 and LCL=0 , -"|0 M " M 129 = 190.42 and the

approximation value is 196.

 31

The value of average run length is computed as:

1
]^4  !  1$ -"|434 M " M 234 8 -"|" M 434 () " s 234
!cYdQ/P$

Although the value of -"|" M 434 () " s 234 is usually greater than

wx
, the

difference made by including this value in the computation of ]^4 is very small and the

impact of on the total cost can be ignored.

For example for %I  0.01, when UCL =658 and LCL= 0,the exact value of the

in control cost using a probability based control charts is $0.054175 and the approximate

value is $0.055355. For the same example with an out-of-control probability of0.02 the

exact value of the out of control cost is $1000 and the approximate value is also $1000.

The exact total cost is $999.978 and the approximated cost is $999.977.

If %I  0.0005, and the UCL =13212 and LCL= 2,the exact value of the in

control cost using probability based control charts is $0.006626 and the approximate

value is $0.023. For the same example with an out-of-control probability of 0.001 the

exact value of out of control cost is $1000.04 and the approximate value is $1000.041.

The approximated total cost is $997.143 and the exact value is $999.978.

The tables presented in the appendices have used the approximations above.

3.4.7
 and  follow-up each failure

 32

In this quality control policy each failure constitutes a signal, and the average time

to signal when a process is in control = ]ghI  ` ]^4I and ]^4I  w . ]^4I equals

x

the average number of inspections until a failure.

When the process is out of control the failure probability has shifted from %I to

%I 8 k%I . so -o 

wx ;wx
.

If an infrequent failure rate is defined as the failure probability below

which control charts are more costly than follow up of each failure, the model can

be used to identify this value (which will be denoted U ). By comparing the costs

of two quality control policies as a function of the failure probability, the model

can be used to determine U .

In the next section the three control charts are compared to the policy of

following up every failure for two scenarios. These are the Shewhart g-chart, g-

chart with probability based control limits, and the EWMA chart assuming a

known failure probability. The first scenario is monitoring hospital acquired

infection rates, and the second scenario is failures in a pacemaker manufacturing

process. Three different control charts are used for monitoring the processes and

the cost model developed is applied to examine cost as a function of failure

probability.

3.5 Scenario1- hospital acquired infections

According to a research conducted in 2007, the chance of hospital acquired

infections in the United States in 2002 was estimated at 10% ( Klevens, Monina et al
 33

2007). In this scenario every patient examined is considered an inspection and every

patient that acquires a hospital related infection is considered a failure. The statistic that

is being monitored is the number of examined patients until a patient acquires an

infection (the number of inspections until failure). Under the assumptions presented

earlier the number of patient examinations until a failure follows a geometric distribution,

and the sub-group size, which is the number data points used to generate the monitored

value, is equal to one.

Since the infection rate was estimated at 10%, failure rates from 1% to10% were

considered and total cost per hour was estimated for this range.

3.5.1 Probability based control chart for hospital acquired infections

In this section probability based g-chart control limits are examined for

monitoring hospital acquired infections.

Typical 3-sigma control limits are supposed to be values such that with

probability of 0.9973, the monitored data will fall between the control limits if the system

is in control. This means the equivalent cumulative probabilities are 0.00135 for the LCL

(>?@? $ and .99865 for the UCL (>A@? $. In this case the desired type I error is 0.0027.

Using (6) and (7) the values of LCL and UCL can be computed.

For example, for %I  0.01 and the desired type I error is 0.0027, LCL = 0 and

UCL = 658. For these limits the actual type I error is less than stated due to the discrete

nature of the geometric distribution. Alternative control limits where the type I error level

is greater than stated are LCL = 1 and UCL = 657.

 34

The UCL in this case is chosen as 658, can be interpreted as the case when the

signal indicates possible improvement. However, to make solid conclusions further

analysis is required. Similarly, when a point plots beyond the LCL the signal indicates a

possible reduction in the quality of the process. In this specific example since the LCL

value is 0, and a negative number of inspected patients until an infected patient is not

possible, the chart loses its ability to detect a reduction in the quality.

3.5.1.1 When the process is in control

The probability of not getting a signal when the system is in control is the

probability that a point falls between the LCL and UCL when the probability of a failure

is %I . Using formulas (10) and (11) when %I is equal to 0.01 the probability a failure does

not generate a signal is:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.01$  !0 M " M 658 | %  0.01$

 1  !1  0.01$   1  !1  0.01$I 

 0.99864

Note that in this example control limits are chosen in a way that type I error is less

than stated.

So the probability of getting a signal when the system is in control is:

!hYdQ/P|%  %I $  1  !( hYdQ/P|%  %I $

In this example probability of getting a signal is:

!hYdQ/P|%  0.01$  1  0.99864  0.00136

 35

This value can be interpreted as the probability the number of inspections from

the prior infected patient triggers a signal with a value that plots above the UCL or below

the LCL when the system is in control.

When the system is in control, the average number of failure/events occurring

until a signal is generated is:

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c `( cYdQ/P 
!cYdQ/P|%  %I $

So in the example when %I = 0.01 the average number of infected patients until a

signal is generated is:

1
])/d Q_) (b YQb `k %/`YQ`c Q`YP / cYdQ/P  6 7  737.35585
0.00135

]^4I is the average number of examined patients until an infected patient trigger

a signal.

1
]^4I  !  1$ -"|434 M " M 234
!cYdQ/P|%  %I $

8 -"|" M 434 () " s 234

Where -"|434 M " M 234 is the expected number of inspected patients

between infections given that this number is within the control limits and -"|" M

434 () " s 234 is the expected value of " given the values of " (the number of

inspections until a failure) are out of control

 36

A@?<

-"|434 M " M 234  t Y !"  Y|434 M " M 234$

Wu?@?;

!"  Y$
!"  Y|434 M " M 234$ 
!434 M " M 234$

!434 M " M 234$  '!234$  '!434$

-"|" M 434 () " s 234

 -"  -"|434 M " M 234 !434 M " M 234$

/ !" H 434 () " L 234$

Since Z is geometrically distributed,

!LCL M " M 234$  1  !1  pI $<  !1  !1  pI $ $ and

Wu?@?; Y %I !1  %I $
-"|434 M " M 234=A@?< /[1  !1  pI $<  !1 
W<

!1  pI $ 

and

!" H 434 () " L 234$  1  !434 M " M 234$

Back to the example when %I = 0.01 then:

!LCL M " M 234$  1  !1  0.99$  !1  !0.99$I $ = 0.99864

-"|434 M " M 234  t Y 0.01 !1  0.01$W< /0.99864  99.108

Wu

!" H 434 () " L 234$  1  !434 M " M 234$ = 0.00136

-"|" M 434 () " s 234  100 99.108*0.99864]/0.00136 =756.829

 37

So the ]^4I value in this example is:

]^4I  737.35585 99.108 8 756.829  73834.7

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspected patients until an infected

patient triggers a signal when the system is in control.

3.5.1.2 When the process is out of control

In the section above, it was assumed the system is in control, the probability of a

failure is %I and all the formulas were computed accordingly. In this part of the example

it is assumed there is a shift in the failure probability from %I to %I 8 k%I . In this case k

represents the percentage of the shift. In the example the failure probability shifts from

%I  0.01 to %  0.02. In this case the probability of having an infected patient has

doubled (d = 1) and the system is out of control.

When the system is in control and has reached a steady state the UCL and LCL is

set and doesnt change afterwards. So, when the system is out of control, the UCL and

LCL remains the same as when the system was in control. So even in this case LCL is 0

and UCL is 658. Since the LCL is equal to zero, the control chart doesnt have the power

to detect increased failure probabilities.

The probability of not getting a signal is:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.02$  !0 M " M 658| %  0.02$

 1  !1  0.02$   1  !1  0.02$I 

 0.99999828

So the Probability of having a signal when the system is out of control is:

!cYdQ/P|%  %I 8 k%I$  1  !( hYdQ/P|%  %I 8 k%I $

 38

In this case the probability of getting a signal is

!cYdQ/P|%  0.02$  1  0.99999828  0.00000172

When there is a shift in the system, the average number of failure/events

occurring until a point plots beyond control limits and triggers a signal is computed as:

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c `( cYdQ/P 
!cYdQ/P|%  %I 8 k%I $

So in the example when the shifted probability is equal to 0.02 the average

number of infected patients until a signal is:

1
])/d Q_) (b YQb `k %/`YQ`c Q`YP / cYdQ/P  6 7
0.00000172

 581390.9538

The ]^4 is the average number of examined patients until an infected patient

trigger a signal when the process is out of control.

1
]^4  !  1$ -"|434 M "
!hYdQ/P|%I  %I 8 k%I$

M 234 8 -"|" M 434 () " s 234

Where -"|434 M " M 234 is the expected number of patients between

infections given that this number is within the control limits. This value can be computed

using equation (38), (39) and (40).

In the example, when shifted probability is 0.02:

 39

-"|434 M " M 234  !t Y 0.02 !1  0.02$W< $/0.9999  49.998

Wu

-"|" M 434 () " s 234  707

So the ]^4 value in this example is:

]^4  583190.9538 49.998 8 707  29069091.91

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspection until a signal is

triggered. In this example it means when the probability of having infection is doubled it

takes on average about 28488157 inspected patients until an infected patient triggers a

signal.

3.5.1.3 Cost model for hospital acquired infections using probability distribution
based control limits

Let 3 be the cost per hour of running an out of control process. Montgomery

2007, categorizes these kinds of costs as external failure costs. External failure costs are

the costs that arise when the quality of the product doesnt meet the requirements after it

is delivered to customers. Sub-categories of external failure costs are, complaint

adjustment, returned product, warranty charges, liability costs and other indirect costs. In

the hospital acquired infection case, these costs range from additional health care cost to

the death of a patient due to infections. Some statistics indicate the national costs of

nosocomial infections cause 8.7 million additional hospital days and death rates range

from 20,000 to 80,000 per year. (Bates et al 1997)

 40

In this example it is assumed the cost per hour of running the hospital with an

increased infection probability of a specified amount is $1000 per hour.

Let ' be the cost of following up on a signal. These types of costs are categorized

as internal failure costs. The important sub-categories of internal failure costs are scrap,

rework, retest, failure analysis, downtime, yield losses and downgrading (Montgomery

2007)

In the hospital example, some of these costs can be named as additional

healthcare costs for infected patients and additional costs for searching locating and

eliminating the source of infections. In this example it is assumed the total cost per follow

up on a signal is $1000.

-jis the expected time that a process is in control after control is established. In

the hospital example it is assumed on average a process goes out of control after one

month. If it is assumed every month consist of 160 working hours, -j = 160 hours.

` is the average time between inspections. In the hospital example this can be

viewed as the arrival rate of patients. In this example it is assumed patients arrive every

15 minutes.

k  1 is the shift fraction. All of these parameters are assumed deterministic

values that are specified for the system.

The summary of the values used in the example is presented below.

 41

Parameter Value

Cost of running process with a shift 1000

($/hour)

Cost of following up on a signal 1000

($/Signal)

Average time between inspections 0.25

(hours/unit)

Mean hours to U shift after control 160

established

Shift Fraction 1

Table 3.4: values of constant parameters in hospital acquired infection case

The total cost per hour of using a quality control policy was modeled as,

-j ' -o '

g(`/P 3(c`  6 78 !3 8 $
-j 8 -o ]ghI -j 8 -o -o

When the system is in control the in control cost per hour is:

'
3(c` n3 
]ghI

This can be written as:

'
3(c` n3 
]^4I `

The ]^4I was computed as 72260.88 so the in control cost per hour is:

1000
3(c` n3   0.054175
73834.7 0.25
 42

This cost is the total cost per hour of using a g-chart with probability-based

control limits for monitoring a process when the process is in control. The low cost is

driven by the large ]^4I . If a probability based quality control chart is used for

monitoring the hospital acquired infection process, when the process is in control and the

failure probability is %I =0.01, on average a signal occurs after every 72261 patients are

inspected.

When a shift occurs and the probability of having a failure shifts from %I to

%I 8 k%I the cost of using probability based control chart for monitoring the process is:

'
3(c` l3  3 8
-o

-o is the expected time until an out of control process is brought back in to

control by using process control method and the value is computed as:

-o  ` ]^4

In the hospital example when using probability based control chart the cost of

monitoring system when the shifted probability is 0.02 is computed as:

-o  0.25 29069091.91  7267273

1000
3(c` l3  1000 8  1000
7267273

This cost is primarily driven by C. The follow-up cost per hour used to bring the

process back into control is low due to a high value of ]^4 . When the probability of

having an infection has increased from 0.01 to 0.02, it takes on average about 7122039

operating hours or 28488156.73 patients to be examined until an infected patient trigger a

signal. In this case since the LCL value is 0, the control chart doesnt have the power to

detect increased shifts.

 43

According to alternating renewal process theorem the in control percentage is:

-j
% n3 
-j 8 -o

And the out of control percentage is:

-o
% l3 
-j 8 -o

In this example the in control percentage using probability based control charts is

computed as:

160
% n3   0.00002016
160 8 7267273

And the out of control percentage using probability based control charts is:

7267273
% l3   0.999978
160 8 7267273

The total cost per hour of using a g-chart with probability distribution-based

control limits for monitoring hospital acquired infections (probability of infection = 0.01,

and d =1 ) is

g(`/P 3(c`  0.00002016 0.054175 8 0.999978 1000  999.978

The cost per hour with %I The cost per hour for %I ranging from 0.01 to 0.1 is

presented in appendix1.

3.5.2 Shewhart g-chart for hospital acquired infections

 44

The Shewhart g-chart is the second method analyzed for monitoring hospital

acquired infections. The g-chart is a control chart designed specifically for processes

monitored with a geometrically distributed statistic.

Using equations (5) and (6) the g-chart UCL and LCL, for hospital example can

be computed as:

234  I.I 8 3=I.I I.I  1;  398

  

1 1 1
434    39 6  17<  198
0.01 0.01 0.01

In this case since the LCL is negative it is replaced with 0. The calculations for

the cost model follow the same steps as the prior section, but with different control limits.

3.5.2.1 When the Process is in control

When the process is in control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.01$  !0 M " M 398| %  0.01$

 1  !1  0.01$   1  !1  0.01$I 

 0.9815

!hYdQ/P|%  %I $  1  !( hYdQ/P|%  %I $

!hYdQ/P|%  0.01$  1  0.9815  0.0185

 45

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c !YQb `k %/`YQ`c$ `( cYdQ/P 
!hYdQ/P|%  %I$

1
6 7  54.05399
0.0185

]^4I  54.0534 91.1483 8 501  5427.929

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspected patients until an infected

patient triggers a signal when the system is in control.

3.5.2.2 When the process is out of control

When the process is out of control: !( hYdQ/P|%  0.02$  !0 M " M

398 | %  0.02$

 1  !1  0.02$   1  !1  0.02$I 

 0.99967

!cYdQ/P|%  0.02$  1  0.99967  0.00033

])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c !YQb `k %/`YQ`c$ `( cYdQ/P

1 1
 6 7  3042.62164
!cYdQ/P|%  %I 8 k%I $ 0.00033

]^4  3042.62164 49.88 8 450  152204.4055

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspection until a signal is

triggered. In this example it means when the probability of having infection is doubled it

takes about 149089 examined patients until an infected patient trigger a signal.

3.5.2.3 Cost model for hospital acquired infections using g-chart

The in control cost can be computed as:

 46

1000
3(c` n3   0.737
5427.93 0.25

This cost is the total cost per hour of using g-chart for monitoring process when

the process is in control.

When the process is out of control the cost per hour of using Shewhart g-control

chart for monitoring the process is:

-o  0.25 152204.5  38051.1

1000
3(c` l3  1000 8  1000.26
38051.1

Using equation (34) in this example the in control percentage using g-chart is

computed as:

160
% n3   0.0042
160 8 38051.1

And using equation (35) the out of control percentage is:

38051.1
% l3   0.996
160 8 38051.1

Using information above the total cost per hour using g-chart for monitoring

hospital acquired infections when the probability of having an infection is 0.01, and the

shifted probability is 0.02 is:

g(`/P 3(c`  0.0042 0.74 8 0.996 1000.26  995.842

The same procedure is repeated for %I for a range of 0.01 to 0.1 and the results

are presented in appendix 2.

 47

3.5.3 EWMA chart for hospital acquired infections

EWMA is the third method used for monitoring hospital infection processes.

1 1  0.01 0.2
234   8 39 9! $ ;  199
0.01 !0.01$ 0 2  0.2

1 1  0.01 0.2
434    39 9! $ <  1
0.01 !0.01$ 0 2  0.2

In this case the UCL is 199, which means if the number of examined patients until

an infected patient is greater than 199, a signal is triggered and is an indication of

possible improvement in the quality of the process. However, to make a solid conclusion

further analysis is required. In this example the LCL is one, which is still very low.

3.5.3.1 When the Process is in control

When the process is in control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.01$  !1 M " M 199| %  0.01$

 1  !1  0.01$   1  !1  0.01$ 

 0.85329

!hYdQ/P|%  %I $  1  !( hYdQ/P|%  %I $

!hYdQ/P|%  0.01$  1  0.85329  0.1467

 48

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c!YQb `k %/`YQ`c$ `( cYdQ/P 
!hYdQ/P|%  %I$

1
  6.81663
0.1467

]^4I  692.53

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspected patients until an infected

patient triggers a signal when the system is in control.

3.5.3.2 When the process is out of control

When the process is out of control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.02$  !1 M " M 199$

 1  !1  0.02$   1  !1  0.02$ 

 0.96169

!cYdQ/P|%  0.02$  1  0.96169  0.03831

])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c !YQb `k %/`YQ`c$ `( cYdQ/P

1 1
 6 7  26.1007
!cYdQ/P|%  %I 8 k%I $ 0.03831

]^4  1354.920267

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspection until a signal is

triggered. In this example it means when the probability of having infection is doubled, it

takes about 1279 examined patients until an infected patient trigger a signal.
 49

3.5.3.3 Cost model for hospital acquired infections using EWMA

The in control cost can be computed as:

1000
3(c` n3   5.78
692.53 0.25

This cost is the total cost per hour of using EWMA chart for monitoring in control

process.

When the process is out of control the cost per hour of using EWMA chart for

monitoring the process is:

-o  0.25 1354.92  338.73

1000
3(c` l3  1000 8  1002.95
338.73

Using equation (34) in this example the in control percentage using g-chart is

computed as:

160
% n3   0.321
160 8 338.7301

And using equation (35) the out of control percentage is:

338.7301
% l3   0.6797
160 8 338.7301

Using information above the total cost per hour using EWMA for monitoring

hospital acquired infections when the probability of having an infection is 0.01, and the

shifted probability is 0.02 is:

g(`/P 3(c`  0.321 5.78 8 0.6797 1002.95  683.04

 50

The same procedure is repeated for %I from a range of 0.01 to 0.1 and the net

cost of using EWMA chart is estimated. The table is presented in appendix3.

3.5.4 Following up on every failure policy

1
3.5.4.1 When process is in control:

]ghI  ` ]^4I  0.25  25

0.01

1
]^4I 
%I

3(c` n3    40
III
x 0

3.5.4.2 When the process is out of control

The failure probability has shifted from %I to %I 8 k%I . so -o  w 

x ;wx

 12.5
I.0
I.I0

' 1000
3(c` l3  3 8  1000 8  1080
-o 12.5

g(`/P 3(c`  0.92754 40 8 0.07246 1080  115.36232

 51

3.6 Scenario2- pace maker manufacturing

A pacemaker is composed of numbers of components that are assembled in a

carefully monitored assembly process. Pacemaker failures are mostly from specific

component failures. Since pace makers are very critical products, , all the components are

tested before final assembly to minimize the chance of pacemaker failure due to

component failures. Because of this the failure probability of a component in final

assembly is very small. In order to simplify the terminology, each component will be

referred to as a unit.

Units are inspect individually so the number of successful units until a failure

follows a geometric distribution. The statistic being monitored is the number of good

units until a defective unit is observed.

The author of this thesis worked as an intern in a pacemaker company, and the

data being used is representative of this and similar production environments. The

average rate of unit failure in production is 1 in every 2000 units, which means the

probability of failure is about 0.0005 !%I  0.0005).

Since the failure probability was estimated at 0.0005, a range of failures from

0.0005 to 0.005 was considered and total cost was estimated for this range.

3.6.1 Probability based control chart for pace maker manufacturing

In this section a g-chart with probability based limits is developed for monitoring

unit failure in a pacemaker manufacturing company assuming the probability of having a

defective unit is 0.0005.

The LCL and UCL value is computed as 2 and 13212 respectively.

 52

3.6.1.1 When the Process is in control

When the process is in control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.0005$  0.99765

!hYdQ/P|%  0.0005$  1  0.99765  0.00235

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c!kb `Y QY`c$ Q`YP cYdQ/P  6 7
0.00235

 425.45524

]^4I  3018322

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspected units until a defective

unit triggers a signal when the system is in control.

3.6.1.2 When the process is out of control

When the process is out of control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.001$  0.99799

!hYdQ/P|%  0.001$  1  0.99799  0.002

1
])/d Q_) (b !b/YP)c$kb `Yc Q`YP cYdQ/P  6 7  499.79551
0.002

]^4  500311.957

This value can be interpreted as the number of inspection until a signal is

triggered. In this example it means when the probability of having a defective unit is

doubled it takes about 500312 defective units until a defective unit triggers a signal.
 53

3.6.1.3 Cost model for pacemaker manufacturing using probability based control
chart

Let 3 be the cost per hour of running an out of control process. In the pacemaker

manufacturing example, the cost of running a process with a shift can be ranged from

scrapping and reworking more pacemakers, which can cost about $10,000 per pacemaker,

to delivering pacemakers that are defective or a providing a pacemaker with a life time

shorter than the specified life time and potentially causing death.

In this scenario it is assumed the total cost per hour of a running pacemaker

manufacturing process out of control is about $1000 per hour.

Let, ' be the cost of following up on a signal. This cost includes, the cost of

searching and testing for the root cause of changes plus the downtime, if the production is

stopped during this period. Additionally, this cost includes the cost of eliminating the

source of variation. In this example it is assumed the average cost of following up on a

signal is $1000.

Let, -j be the expected time that a process is in control after in control is

established. In this example it is assumed on average, a pacemaker manufacturing process

goes out of control every two months. If it is assumed every month consists of 160 hours,

then on average after 320 hours the process goes out of control.
 54

Let ` be the average time between inspections. In this example, since every unit is

inspected, 1/t is the rate of assembling units. On average every 3 minutes, a unit is

assembled so the average time between inspection about 0.05 hours.

Let k be shift fraction from the actual failure probability.

The summary of values used in the example is presented in the table below.

Parameters Estimated value

Cost of running process with a shift ($/hour) 1000

Cost of following up on a signal ($/Signal) 1000

Average time between inspections (hours/unit) 0.05

Mean hours to U shift after control 320

established

Shift Fraction 1

Table 3.5: Estimated values of constant parameters in pacemaker manufacturing process

Using the information in table 3.5 and computed values of ]^4I the in

control cost is:

3(c` n3  0.006626

Similarly the out of control cost can be computed using equation (23).

3(c` l3  1000.04

Using equations (34) and (35) in control and out of control percentages can be

computed.
 55

% n3  0.012

And the out of control percentage using probability based control charts is:

% l3  0.98

Using information above the total cost per hour, using probability based control

chart for monitoring defective units in pacemaker manufacturing process, when the

probability of having an infection is 0.0005, and the shifted probability is 0.001can be

computed as:

g(`/P 3(c`  0.012 0.006626 8 0.9838 1000.04  987.41

The same procedure is repeated for %I from a range of 0.0005 to 0.005 and the

net cost of using probability based control chart is estimated. The table is presented in

appendix4.

3.6.2 Shewhart g-chart for pacemaker manufacturing process

In this section g-chart is used as an alternative control chart for monitoring

pacemaker manufacturing process. The UCL and LCL is 7998 and -3998 respectively. In

this case the LCL is a negative value and since negative LCL is meaningless in this

context it is replaced with zero.

3.6.2.1 When the process is in control

When the process is in control:

 56

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.0005$  0.98168

!hYdQ/P|%  0.0005$  1  0.98168  0.01832

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c !kb `Y QY`c$ Q`YP cYdQ/P  6 7
0.01832

 54.57086

]^4I  363953

The ]^4I is the number of inspected units until a defective unit trigger signal.

3.6.2.2 When the process is out of control

When the process is out of control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.001$  0.99966

!cYdQ/P|%  0.001$  1  0.99966  0.00034

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c!kb `Y QY`c$ Q`YP cYdQ/P  6 7
0.00034

 2983.94392

]^4  2984910.11

3.6.2.3 Cost model for pacemaker manufacturing process using g-chart

The in control cost can be computed as:

3(c` n3  0.055

3(c` l3  1000.007

% n3  0.0021395% l3  0.997

Using information above the total cost per hour using g-chart for monitoring

pacemaker manufacturing process is:

 57

g(`/P 3(c`  0.0021 0.055 8 0.997 1000.007  997.87

The same procedure is repeated for %I from a range of 0.0005 to 0.005 and the

net cost of using g control chart for monitoring the system is estimated. The table is

presented in appendix5.

3.6.3 EWMA chart for pacemaker manufacturing

In the pacemaker manufacturing when using EWMA for monitoring the system.

In this example the UCL and LCL values are 3999 and 1 respectively. Although the LCL

is not zero but still is very low and the chart cant capture the increased shift in the

process.

3.6.3.1 When the process is in control

When the process is in control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.0005$  0.86409

!hYdQ/P|%  0.0005$  1  0.86409  0.1359

1
])/d Q_) (b b/YP)c!kb `Y QY`c$ Q`YP cYdQ/P   7.35819
0.1359

]^4I  37175.15

3.6.3.2 When the process is out of control

When the process is out of control:

!( hYdQ/P|%  0.001$  0.98068

 58

!cYdQ/P|%  0.001$  1  0.96169  0.019316

1
])/d Q_) (b kb `Y QY`c Q`YP cYdQ/P  6 7  51.77154
0.019316

]^4  52891.99

3.6.3.3 Cost model for pacemaker manufacturing using EWMA

The total cost per hour of using EWMA is computed as:

3(c` n3  0.538

3(c` l3  1000.38

% n3  0.108

% l3  0.892

g(`/P 3(c`  0.1080816 0.538 8 0.892 1000.38  892.46

The same procedure is repeated for %I from a range of 0.0005 to 0.005 and the

cost of using EWMA chart is estimated. The table is presented in appendix6.

3.6.4 Following up on every failure

g(`/P 3(c`  0.86486 10 8 0.135135 1020  146.48649

 59

4 Results

In the methodology section, two infrequent failure scenarios were analyzed. Three

different control chart methods used to monitor the processes were analyzed with the cost

model developed. A step by step computation of the total cost per hour of using each of

the specific control charts was explained. In addition the total cost per hour of following

up on every failure was computed.

In this section the total cost per hour of using a specific type of control chart

(cost1), is compared to the total cost per hour of following up on every failure (cost2).

4.1 Comparing probability limit based g-chart with follow up of every

failure - hospital acquired infections

Figure 2 is a comparison of cost1 for a g-chart with probability distribution based

control limits to cost2 for %I ranging from 0.01 to 0.1 with d = 1.

 60

Figure 2 :Comparing total cost per hour of using probabilit based control charts vs. following up on every
failure when d=1 and C/F = 1

The research question that was posed earlier was at what frequency of failure does

statistical quality control result in a lower average cost per hour than follow up of every

failure?

From Figure 2 it can be concluded that for the specified range and parameter

values used following up on every infected patient is more cost efficient.

When using a g-chart with probability based control limits and the process is in

control, the probability of a failure generating a signal is small, which results in large

values of ]^4I . When ]^4I is large it means the average number of inspected units until

a signal is large. This leads to less following up on infected patients which results in low

in-control cost.

However, in the out of control situation with % s %I the zero LCL value results

in a high out of control cost because the probability that a failure generates a signal goes
 61

down. When the LCL is zero, the control chart loses its ability to detect an increased

failure probability which results in an increased ]^4 . This results in an increased

expected time until an out of control process is brought back in to control (-o). The

high value of -o results in a low in-control percentage and increases the out of control

percentage which leads to an increased cost per hour of using control charts when the

process is out of control.

The in control cost for following up on every failure is higher than when using

probability based control charts, because every infected patients is a signal. However, the

out of control cost is much smaller relative to the control chart since every infected

patient is a signal and the process is brought back to control much sooner. -o which is

the expected amount of time to bring an out of control process back in control is smaller.

Since -o is smaller, the in control percentage is larger.

Since the model parameters are not always known exactly, the model can be used

to conduct sensitivity analysis to examine the robustness of the prior conclusion for the

particular scenario considered, and other similar scenarios in other application contexts.

The conclusions are insensitive to the shift fraction d. When varying the shift

fraction between the 0.01 to 0.1 following up of every failure remains more efficient.
@

Sensitivity to the t ratio can also be analyzed. This ratio is a ratio of cost per unit

time over a cost per follow up so the exact units has no relevant interpretation, however it

is a measure of out-of-control cost, to the cost of bring a process back into control. If the

average time it takes to conduct failure follow-up is known, a dimensionless ratio can be

formed. For the specified %I range, when  1, follow-up of every failure is less costly,
@
 62

however as gets smaller, %I also gets smaller. When = 0.4, %I = 0.1 as seen in Figure
@ @

3,

Figure 3: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control chart vs. following up on every
failure when d = 1 and C/F = 0.4

= 0.05, %I 0.01. These results imply that for a process with a failure
@

When

probability in the range of 0.01 to 0.1, the cost of follow up must be relatively large

before a g-chart should be used.

Some additional figures with different shift fractions and different cost ratio
@

values of are presented in appendix 7.

4.2 Comparing Shewhart g-chart with follow up of every failure - hospital

infections
 63

In the hospital acquired infection case, the total cost per hour was also computed

when using Shewhart g-chart for monitoring the infection process. Figures 4.3 shows a

charts that compares the total cost per hour of using a Shewhart g-chart versus following

up on every failure for %I in the range of 0.01 to 0.1.

The sensitivity analysis results are similar to those obtained for the g-chart with

probability based control limits. However, for Shewhart g-charts cost1 decreases as %I

increases, but the effect of this on the overall cost per hour is negligible.

The reason that cost1 is decreasing is because as %I is increasing the UCL limit is

decreasing and therefore more points plot above the UCL. In this case ]^4 decreases and

thus the total cost decreases.

Figure 4: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when d = 1and
C/F =1

Additional figures of this example with different shift fraction and different cost
@

ratio values of are presented in appendix 7.
 64

4.3 Comparing EWMA with follow up of every failure - hospital acquired

infections

In the hospital acquired infection case, the total cost per hour of using an EWMA

control for monitoring the system quality was also computed. The chart below shows the

total cost per hour of using EWMA versus following up on every failure for %I in the

range of 0.01 to 0.1.

Figure 5: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up in every failure when d = 1 and
C/F = 1

With the specified parameters, when %I is between 0.001 and 0.04, it is more cost

efficient to follow up on every infected patient, but when %I is greater than 0.04 it is

more cost efficient to use an EWMA control chart for monitoring the process.

In the EWMA chart, when the process is in control, the probability of having an

out of control signal is small. This results in large values of ]^4I . When ]^4I is large it
 65

means the average number of examined patients until an infected patient triggers a signal,

is large. This leads to less following up on infected patients when the process is in

control, which results in lower in control cost.

The main feature of the EWMA charts that differs from the two other control

charts is the low value of the UCL. When the process is out of control, some infected

patients generate a signal because the number of inspections since the prior failure

exceeds the UCL . The probability of getting a signal, when the process is out of control

is higher than the two other methods resulting in a smaller ]^4 . This results in smaller

-Y , and the lower value of EY increases the in control percentage of the process, and

decreases the overall cost per hour of using EWMA control charts for monitoring the

process.

Note that, when the process is out of control the control chart signals are not

necessarily because of the right reason. When the failure probability increases ideally

points plotted below the LCL will trigger a signal, but because the LCL is very small this

doesnt happen. The primary reason signals are generated is because of the low UCL

value. These signals indicate possible quality improvements, which is not the case.

There is a negative association between shift fraction and %I . As shift fraction

increases the %I get smaller and vice versa. . In addition, it can be concluded that there

is a positive association between and %I . As gets smaller, the %I also gets smaller.
@ @

When the cost ratio ( ) gets as small as 0.05, %I occurs at 0.01. The sensitivity
@

analysis results are similar to those obtained for the g-charts.

 66

Figure 6: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 1 and
C/F = 0.05

Figure 7: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 1 and
C/F = 20
 67

In the %I range of 0.01 to 0.1, EWMA charts are a viable method that may be

more cost effective than a policy of following up every failure. A more detailed estimate

of model parameters is required.

Some Additional figures of this example with different shift fraction and different
@

cost ratio values of is presented in the appedix7.

4.4 Comparing probability limit based Shewhart g-chart with follow up of

every failure -pacemaker manufacturing case

The analysis presented was conducted for g-charts with probability distribution-

based control limits, but the conclusions are also applicable to the use of Shewhart g-

charts, which produced very similar results. Chart 8 compares, cost1, for probability

based control chart with cost2 , for %I ranging from 0.0005 to 0.005.

Figure 8: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control chart vs. following up on every
failure whe d = 1 and C/F = 1
 68

From the figure 8 it can be concluded that following up on every defective unit is

a more cost-efficient strategy, when the probability of having a defective unit is from

0.0005 to 0.005.

When gets as small as 0.1, %I  0.0048. The cost of failure follow up must be
@

relatively high to justify the use of a g-chart. Results are shown in figure 9.

Figure 9: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when d = 1 and
C/F = 0.1

In most cases, the costs of running an out-of-control process such as in the

pacemaker production scenario are so high (with many difficult to quantify costs) that g-

charts should rarely be used.

Some Additional graphs of this example with different shift fractions and
@
different values of cost ratio is presented in the appedix8.
 69

4.5 Comparing EWMA with following up of every failure pacemaker

manufacturing

The figure 10 compares the total cost1 for using EWMA chart versus cost2 for %I

ranging from 0.0005 to 0.005.

Figure 10: Comapring total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 1 and
C/F = 1

For %I ranging from 0.0005 to 0.005, it is more cost efficient to follow up on

every defective unit with the cost parameters used.

= 0.25, %I  0.0048. Results are shown in figure 11.

@

When
 70

Figure 11: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 1 and
C/F = 0.25

Some Additional figures with different shift fraction and different cost ratio
@

values of is presented in the appedix8.
 71

5 Conclusion

The mathematical model developed in this research is a model for analyzing and

comparing the cost of utilizing a statistical control chart method for monitoring a

process. The model was employed to analyze the use of g-charts in a scenario (hospital

example) with relatively large failure probabilities (but still infrequent), and a relatively

low inspection rate of units (infection rate monitoring), and a scenario with much smaller

failure probabilities and higher inspection rate of units (pacemaker assembly). The

monitored statistic in both scenarios was geometrically distributed, for which g-charts

were developed. The scenario results as well as sensitivity analysis show that when

compared to a policy of following up every failure, g-charts should only be used when

the cost of failure follow up is very high. In most scenarios where low defect rates are

monitored carefully this will not be the case. This is a robust conclusion and the model

requires extreme scenarios to show a lower cost for g-charts.

In contrast the use of EWMA did not require extreme scenarios, except with very

low failure probabilities, to generate a lower cost. The main difference between the g-

charts and the EWMA charts are the width of the control limits. This indicates that the

model developed may be useful to set specific control limits that minimize the long-run

cost of failure rate monitoring. This is a topic for future research.

 72

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 75

Appendix1

Process In-Control

p0 LCL UCL Prob No Signal Prob Signal Events to Signal E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL0
0.01 0 658 0.998644 0.00136 737.36 98 72260.88
0.011 0 598 0.998644 0.00136 737.59 89.09090909 65712.4
0.012 0 548 0.998645 0.00136 737.82 81.66666667 60255.42
0.013 0 505 0.998633 0.00137 731.40 75.38461538 55136.32
0.014 0 469 0.998637 0.00136 733.84 70 51369.09
0.015 0 438 0.998646 0.00135 738.53 65.33333333 48250.53
0.016 0 410 0.998635 0.00136 732.83 61.25 44885.99
0.017 0 386 0.998641 0.00136 736.03 57.64705882 42429.98
0.018 0 364 0.998631 0.00137 730.35 54.44444444 39763.4
0.019 0 345 0.998638 0.00136 734.28 51.57894737 37873.37
0.02 0 328 0.998648 0.00135 739.73 49 36246.77
0.021 0 312 0.998640 0.00136 735.50 46.66666667 34323.35
0.022 0 298 0.998649 0.00135 740.22 44.54545455 32973.38
0.023 0 284 0.998619 0.00138 724.17 42.60869565 30855.79
0.024 0 273 0.998650 0.00135 740.71 40.83333333 30245.75
0.025 0 261 0.998616 0.00138 722.44 39.2 28319.53
0.026 0 251 0.998620 0.00138 724.87 37.69230769 27322.06
0.027 0 242 0.998635 0.00137 732.50 36.2962963 26586.91
0.028 0 233 0.998624 0.00138 726.82 35 25438.68
0.029 0 225 0.998629 0.00137 729.28 33.79310345 24644.53
0.03 0 217 0.998611 0.00139 719.96 32.66666667 23518.53
0.031 0 210 0.998614 0.00139 721.66 31.61290323 22813.66
0.032 0 204 0.998643 0.00136 736.72 30.625 22562.05
0.033 0 197 0.998608 0.00139 718.47 29.6969697 21336.5
0.034 0 192 0.998649 0.00135 740.23 28.82352941 21336.15
0.035 0 186 0.998627 0.00137 728.53 28 20398.82
0.036 0 181 0.998639 0.00136 734.74 27.22222222 20001.27
0.037 0 176 0.998637 0.00136 733.50 26.48648649 19427.82
0.038 0 171 0.998620 0.00138 724.83 25.78947368 18693.05
0.039 0 167 0.998645 0.00136 737.76 25.12820513 18538.69
0.04 0 162 0.998601 0.00140 715.04 24.5 17518.53
0.041 0 158 0.998602 0.00140 715.28 23.90243902 17097.04
0.042 0 154 0.998591 0.00141 709.70 23.33333333 16559.75
0.043 0 151 0.998630 0.00137 729.81 22.79069767 16632.86
0.044 0 147 0.998598 0.00140 713.10 22.27272727 15882.58
 76

0.045 0 144 0.998618 0.00138 723.63 21.77777778 15759.1

0.046 0 141 0.998630 0.00137 729.84 21.30434783 15548.76
0.047 0 138 0.998633 0.00137 731.60 20.85106383 15254.6
0.048 0 135 0.998628 0.00137 728.87 20.41666667 14881.06
0.049 0 132 0.998614 0.00139 721.69 20 14433.85
0.05 0 129 0.998592 0.00141 710.20 19.6 13919.85
0.051 0 127 0.998634 0.00137 731.91 19.21568627 14064.14
0.052 0 124 0.998596 0.00140 712.15 18.84615385 13421.38
0.053 0 122 0.998625 0.00138 727.20 18.49056604 13446.3
0.054 0 120 0.998648 0.00135 739.53 18.14814815 13421.07
0.055 0 117 0.998587 0.00141 707.80 17.81818182 12611.7
0.056 0 115 0.998598 0.00140 713.17 17.5 12480.46
0.057 0 113 0.998603 0.00140 715.63 17.19298246 12303.87
0.058 0 111 0.998602 0.00140 715.16 16.89655172 12083.67
0.059 0 109 0.998595 0.00141 711.74 16.61016949 11822.1
0.06 0 107 0.998582 0.00142 705.42 16.33333333 11521.85
0.061 0 105 0.998564 0.00144 696.27 16.06557377 11186
0.062 0 104 0.998629 0.00137 729.64 15.80645161 11532.99
0.063 0 102 0.998601 0.00140 714.99 15.55555556 11122.1
0.064 0 100 0.998567 0.00143 697.74 15.3125 10684.08
0.065 0 99 0.998621 0.00138 725.21 15.07692308 10933.89
0.066 0 97 0.998577 0.00142 702.59 14.84848485 10432.35
0.067 0 96 0.998624 0.00138 726.51 14.62686567 10626.62
0.068 0 94 0.998569 0.00143 698.75 14.41176471 10070.18
0.069 0 93 0.998609 0.00139 718.84 14.20289855 10209.54
0.07 0 92 0.998645 0.00136 737.99 14 10331.89
0.071 0 90 0.998576 0.00142 702.43 13.8028169 9695.477
0.072 0 89 0.998606 0.00139 717.43 13.61111111 9764.987
0.073 0 88 0.998632 0.00137 731.25 13.42465753 9816.719
0.074 0 86 0.998548 0.00145 688.76 13.24324324 9121.379
0.075 0 85 0.998568 0.00143 698.38 13.06666667 9125.554
0.076 0 84 0.998585 0.00142 706.69 12.89473684 9112.528
0.077 0 83 0.998599 0.00140 713.61 12.72727273 9082.3
0.078 0 82 0.998609 0.00139 719.11 12.56410256 9034.973
0.079 0 81 0.998617 0.00138 723.15 12.40506329 8970.746
0.08 0 80 0.998622 0.00138 725.71 12.25 8889.917
0.081 0 79 0.998624 0.00138 726.76 12.09876543 8792.88
0.082 0 78 0.998623 0.00138 726.30 11.95121951 8680.121
0.083 0 77 0.998619 0.00138 724.32 11.80722892 8552.212
0.084 0 76 0.998613 0.00139 720.84 11.66666667 8409.812
 77

0.085 0 75 0.998603 0.00140 715.88 11.52941176 8253.653

0.086 0 74 0.998590 0.00141 709.46 11.39534884 8084.54
0.087 0 73 0.998575 0.00143 701.62 11.26436782 7903.343
0.088 0 72 0.998556 0.00144 692.42 11.13636364 7710.985
0.089 0 71 0.998533 0.00147 681.89 11.01123596 7508.439
0.09 0 71 0.998642 0.00136 736.38 10.88888889 8018.37
0.091 0 70 0.998617 0.00138 722.92 10.76923077 7785.325
0.092 0 69 0.998588 0.00141 708.21 10.65217391 7543.98
0.093 0 68 0.998556 0.00144 692.33 10.53763441 7295.497
0.094 0 67 0.998519 0.00148 675.37 10.42553191 7041.046
0.095 0 67 0.998623 0.00138 726.43 10.31578947 7493.699
0.096 0 66 0.998584 0.00142 706.40 10.20833333 7211.189
0.097 0 65 0.998541 0.00146 685.46 10.10309278 6925.296
0.098 0 65 0.998641 0.00136 735.84 10 7358.37
0.099 0 64 0.998595 0.00140 711.77 9.898989899 7045.78
0.1 0 63 0.998544 0.00146 687.01 9.8 6732.719

Process Out of Control

Prob Shifted Prob Prob No Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL1

signal Signal
0.01 0.02 0.9999983 1.72001E-06 581390.9538 49 28488156.73
0.011 0.022 0.9999983 1.70725E-06 585738.3936 44.54545455 26091982.99
0.012 0.024 0.9999983 1.69453E-06 590132.7764 40.83333333 24097088.37
0.013 0.026 0.9999983 1.71283E-06 583829.0937 37.69230769 22005865.84
0.014 0.028 0.9999983 1.68971E-06 591817.7881 35 20713622.58
0.015 0.03 0.9999983 1.65672E-06 603604.023 32.66666667 19717731.42
0.016 0.032 0.9999983 1.67117E-06 598382.4683 30.625 18325463.09
0.017 0.034 0.9999984 1.64511E-06 607863.8691 28.82352941 17520782.11
0.018 0.036 0.9999983 1.65945E-06 602610.4981 27.22222222 16404396.89
0.019 0.038 0.9999984 1.63014E-06 613444.418 25.78947368 15820408.68
0.02 0.04 0.9999984 1.59475E-06 627056.6761 24.5 15362888.57
0.021 0.042 0.9999984 1.60204E-06 624204.1857 23.33333333 14564764.33
0.022 0.044 0.9999984 1.57034E-06 636804.3098 22.27272727 14183368.72
0.023 0.046 0.9999984 1.63001E-06 613493.4901 21.30434783 13070078.7
0.024 0.048 0.9999985 1.54614E-06 646770.2564 20.41666667 13204892.74
0.025 0.05 0.9999984 1.61487E-06 619245.1658 19.6 12137205.25
0.026 0.052 0.9999984 1.59252E-06 627936.4096 18.84615385 11834186.18
0.027 0.054 0.9999985 1.54797E-06 646005.3686 18.14814815 11723801.13
 78

0.028 0.056 0.9999984 1.56136E-06 640467.8335 17.5 11208187.09

0.029 0.058 0.9999985 1.53958E-06 649527.8458 16.89655172 10974780.84
0.03 0.06 0.9999984 1.56898E-06 637358.2658 16.33333333 10410185.01
0.031 0.062 0.9999984 1.55022E-06 645069.9019 15.80645161 10196266.19
0.032 0.064 0.9999985 1.4757E-06 677645.7301 15.3125 10376450.24
0.033 0.066 0.9999985 1.54166E-06 648652.7429 14.84848485 9631510.425
0.034 0.068 0.9999986 1.44025E-06 694321.7027 14.41176471 10006401.01
0.035 0.07 0.9999985 1.47688E-06 677102.6563 14 9479437.188
0.036 0.072 0.9999986 1.44091E-06 694007.6866 13.61111111 9446215.734
0.037 0.074 0.9999986 1.43523E-06 696750.5668 13.24324324 9227237.236
0.038 0.076 0.9999985 1.4596E-06 685117.2345 12.89473684 8834406.445
0.039 0.078 0.9999986 1.39744E-06 715594.6832 12.56410256 8990804.994
0.04 0.08 0.9999985 1.47856E-06 676331.7839 12.25 8285064.353
0.041 0.082 0.9999985 1.46656E-06 681866.0247 11.95121951 8149130.539
0.042 0.084 0.9999985 1.47913E-06 676071.3448 11.66666667 7887499.023
0.043 0.086 0.9999986 1.38653E-06 721224.78 11.39534884 8218607.959
0.044 0.088 0.9999986 1.44293E-06 693032.5041 11.13636364 7717861.978
0.045 0.09 0.9999986 1.38969E-06 719583.0056 10.88888889 7835459.395
0.046 0.092 0.9999986 1.35525E-06 737872.2999 10.65217391 7859944.065
0.047 0.094 0.9999987 1.33833E-06 747200.0947 10.42553191 7789958.434
0.048 0.096 0.9999987 1.33835E-06 747188.7361 10.20833333 7627551.681
0.049 0.098 0.9999986 1.35537E-06 737808.3772 10 7378083.772
0.05 0.1 0.9999986 1.39008E-06 719380.716 9.8 7049931.016
0.051 0.102 0.9999987 1.29664E-06 771225.8537 9.607843137 7409817.025
0.052 0.104 0.9999986 1.36108E-06 734708.0724 9.423076923 6923210.682
0.053 0.106 0.9999987 1.29372E-06 772965.7053 9.245283019 7146286.709
0.054 0.108 0.9999988 1.23999E-06 806459.0674 9.074074074 7317869.315
0.055 0.11 0.9999987 1.34661E-06 742607.3257 8.909090909 6615956.175
0.056 0.112 0.9999987 1.31546E-06 760189.5605 8.75 6651658.654
0.057 0.114 0.9999987 1.29592E-06 771654.954 8.596491228 6633525.043
0.058 0.116 0.9999987 1.28751E-06 776695.6066 8.448275862 6561738.745
0.059 0.118 0.9999987 1.29005E-06 775162.5911 8.305084746 6437791.011
0.06 0.12 0.9999987 1.30366E-06 767073.0983 8.166666667 6264430.303
0.061 0.122 0.9999987 1.32871E-06 752610.626 8.032786885 6045560.766
0.062 0.124 0.9999988 1.19653E-06 835751.3074 7.903225806 6605131.301
0.063 0.126 0.9999988 1.23781E-06 807877.1113 7.777777778 6283488.644
0.064 0.128 0.9999987 1.29161E-06 774226.4278 7.65625 5927671.088
0.065 0.13 0.9999988 1.18273E-06 845499.2825 7.538461538 6373763.822
0.066 0.132 0.9999987 1.25283E-06 798190.1848 7.424242424 5925957.433
0.067 0.134 0.9999988 1.15931E-06 862581.7361 7.313432836 6308433.592
 79

0.068 0.136 0.9999988 1.24675E-06 802087.8717 7.205882353 5779750.84

0.069 0.138 0.9999988 1.16592E-06 857692.3651 7.101449275 6090858.824
0.07 0.14 0.9999989 1.09486E-06 913357.7892 7 6393504.525
0.071 0.142 0.9999988 1.20329E-06 831058.0899 6.901408451 5735471.324
0.072 0.144 0.9999989 1.14207E-06 875605.9588 6.805555556 5958984.997
0.073 0.146 0.9999989 1.08852E-06 918682.0907 6.712328767 6166496.225
0.074 0.148 0.9999988 1.22283E-06 817776.1582 6.621621622 5415004.291
0.075 0.15 0.9999988 1.17812E-06 848809.5164 6.533333333 5545555.507
0.076 0.152 0.9999989 1.13987E-06 877292.1892 6.447368421 5656225.957
0.077 0.154 0.9999989 1.10757E-06 902880.4114 6.363636364 5745602.618
0.078 0.156 0.9999989 1.08078E-06 925255.8152 6.282051282 5812504.48
0.079 0.158 0.9999989 1.05917E-06 944131.9182 6.202531646 5856008.1
0.08 0.16 0.9999990 1.04247E-06 959260.1454 6.125 5875468.39
0.081 0.162 0.9999990 1.03047E-06 970435.213 6.049382716 5870534.004
0.082 0.164 0.9999990 1.02302E-06 977499.71 5.975609756 5841156.803
0.083 0.166 0.9999990 1.02005E-06 980347.7389 5.903614458 5787595.085
0.084 0.168 0.9999990 1.02153E-06 978927.4985 5.833333333 5710410.408
0.085 0.17 0.9999990 1.02749E-06 973242.7208 5.764705882 5610458.038
0.086 0.172 0.9999990 1.03804E-06 963352.9125 5.697674419 5488871.245
0.087 0.174 0.9999989 1.05333E-06 949372.3805 5.632183908 5347039.844
0.088 0.176 0.9999989 1.07357E-06 931468.0642 5.568181818 5186583.539
0.089 0.178 0.9999989 1.09907E-06 909856.228 5.505617978 5009320.806
0.09 0.18 0.9999991 9.26765E-07 1079022.083 5.444444444 5874675.788
0.091 0.182 0.9999990 9.54944E-07 1047181.706 5.384615385 5638670.726
0.092 0.184 0.9999990 9.88396E-07 1011740.662 5.326086957 5388618.744
0.093 0.186 0.9999990 1.02763E-06 973116.5806 5.268817204 5127173.382
0.094 0.188 0.9999989 1.07324E-06 931755.7254 5.212765957 4857024.526
0.095 0.19 0.9999991 9.12034E-07 1096449.803 5.157894737 5655372.67
0.096 0.192 0.9999990 9.58823E-07 1042945.344 5.104166667 5323366.86
0.097 0.194 0.9999990 1.01261E-06 987545.9778 5.051546392 4988634.321
0.098 0.196 0.9999991 8.63748E-07 1157744.91 5 5788724.548
0.099 0.198 0.9999991 9.18301E-07 1088967.198 4.949494949 5389837.647
0.1 0.2 0.9999990 9.80797E-07 1019578.823 4.9 4995936.233
 80

Prob IC-Cost1 IC- OC- OC-Cost2 % In control % In control Net Cost Net Cost 2
Cost2 Cost1 P/C No P/C 1
0.01 0.055355 40 1000 1080 2.2465E-05 0.927536232 999.9777 115.3623
0.011 0.0608713 44 1000 1088 2.4528E-05 0.933687003 999.9756 113.2308
0.012 0.0663841 48 1000 1096 2.65585E-05 0.938875306 999.9736 112.0587
0.013 0.0725475 52 1000 1104 2.90823E-05 0.943310658 999.9711 111.6372
0.014 0.0778678 56 1000 1112 3.08966E-05 0.947145877 999.9693 111.814
0.015 0.0829006 60 1000 1120 3.2457E-05 0.95049505 999.9677 112.4752
0.016 0.0891147 64 1000 1128 3.49229E-05 0.953445065 999.9653 113.5345
0.017 0.094273 68 1000 1136 3.65267E-05 0.956063269 999.9637 114.9244
0.018 0.100595 72 1000 1144 3.90124E-05 0.958402662 999.9612 116.5923
0.019 0.1056151 76 1000 1152 4.04524E-05 0.960505529 999.9598 118.4961
0.02 0.1103547 80 1000 1160 4.16571E-05 0.962406015 999.9586 120.6015
0.021 0.1165388 84 1000 1168 4.39397E-05 0.964131994 999.9563 122.8809
0.022 0.12131 88 1000 1176 4.51212E-05 0.965706447 999.9552 125.3114
0.023 0.1296353 92 1000 1184 4.89644E-05 0.967148489 999.9513 127.8739
0.024 0.13225 96 1000 1192 4.84645E-05 0.968474149 999.9518 130.5523
0.025 0.1412453 100 1000 1200 5.27276E-05 0.96969697 999.9476 133.3333
0.026 0.1464018 104 1000 1208 5.40777E-05 0.970828471 999.9463 136.2054
0.027 0.15045 108 1000 1216 5.45868E-05 0.971878515 999.9458 139.1586
0.028 0.1572409 112 1000 1224 5.70979E-05 0.972855592 999.9433 142.1846
0.029 0.1623078 116 1000 1232 5.83121E-05 0.973767051 999.9421 145.276
0.03 0.1700786 120 1000 1240 6.14745E-05 0.974619289 999.9389 148.4264
0.031 0.1753335 124 1000 1248 6.27641E-05 0.975417896 999.9376 151.6303
0.032 0.1772889 128 1000 1256 6.16743E-05 0.976167779 999.9387 154.8827
0.033 0.1874722 132 1000 1264 6.64441E-05 0.976873265 999.934 158.1795
0.034 0.1874753 136 1000 1272 6.3955E-05 0.977538185 999.9365 161.5166
0.035 0.1960898 140 1000 1280 6.751E-05 0.978165939 999.9329 164.8908
0.036 0.1999873 144 1000 1288 6.77474E-05 0.978759558 999.9327 168.2991
0.037 0.2058903 148 1000 1296 6.93551E-05 0.979321754 999.9311 171.7386
0.038 0.2139832 152 1000 1304 7.24388E-05 0.979854956 999.928 175.2071
0.039 0.2157649 156 1000 1312 7.11788E-05 0.980361351 999.9293 178.7023
0.04 0.2283297 160 1000 1320 7.72415E-05 0.980842912 999.9233 182.2222
0.041 0.2339586 164 1000 1328 7.85298E-05 0.981301421 999.922 185.7651
 81

0.042 0.2415495 168 1000.001 1336 8.11345E-05 0.981738495 999.9194 189.3294

0.043 0.2404878 172 1000 1344 7.7866E-05 0.982155603 999.9226 192.9136
0.044 0.2518482 176 1000.001 1352 8.29176E-05 0.982554082 999.9176 196.5164
0.045 0.2538216 180 1000.001 1360 8.16733E-05 0.982935154 999.9189 200.1365
0.046 0.2572552 184 1000.001 1368 8.14189E-05 0.983299933 999.9191 203.7729
0.047 0.262216 188 1000.001 1376 8.21503E-05 0.983649444 999.9184 207.4245
0.048 0.2687981 192 1000.001 1384 8.38993E-05 0.983984625 999.9166 211.0903
0.049 0.2771263 196 1000.001 1392 8.67359E-05 0.98430634 999.9138 214.7696
0.05 0.2873594 200 1000.001 1400 9.07728E-05 0.984615385 999.9098 218.4615
0.051 0.2844113 204 1000.001 1408 8.63644E-05 0.984912492 999.9142 222.1654
0.052 0.2980319 208 1000.001 1416 9.24341E-05 0.985198342 999.9082 225.8804
0.053 0.2974796 212 1000.001 1424 8.9549E-05 0.985473562 999.911 229.606
0.054 0.2980389 216 1000.001 1432 8.74495E-05 0.985738734 999.9131 233.3417
0.055 0.3171658 220 1000.001 1440 9.67265E-05 0.985994398 999.9039 237.0868
0.056 0.3205009 224 1000.001 1448 9.62073E-05 0.986241057 999.9044 240.8409
0.057 0.325101 228 1000.001 1456 9.64703E-05 0.986479178 999.9042 244.6036
0.058 0.3310253 232 1000.001 1464 9.75256E-05 0.986709197 999.9031 248.3743
0.059 0.3383493 236 1000.001 1472 9.94031E-05 0.986931521 999.9013 252.1526
0.06 0.3471664 240 1000.001 1480 0.000102154 0.98714653 999.8985 255.9383
0.061 0.35759 244 1000.001 1488 0.000105852 0.987354578 999.8948 259.7309
0.062 0.346831 248 1000.001 1496 9.6885E-05 0.987555998 999.9038 263.5301
0.063 0.3596443 252 1000.001 1504 0.000101844 0.987751102 999.8988 267.3356
0.064 0.3743889 256 1000.001 1512 0.000107957 0.987940183 999.8928 271.1471
0.065 0.3658349 260 1000.001 1520 0.000100402 0.988123515 999.9003 274.9644
0.066 0.3834228 264 1000.001 1528 0.000107988 0.988301357 999.8927 278.7871
0.067 0.3764132 268 1000.001 1536 0.000101441 0.988473951 999.8992 282.615
0.068 0.3972123 272 1000.001 1544 0.000110719 0.988641527 999.89 286.448
0.069 0.3917903 276 1000.001 1552 0.000105064 0.988804299 999.8956 290.2857
0.07 0.3871509 280 1000.001 1560 0.000100092 0.988962472 999.9006 294.128
0.071 0.4125635 284 1000.001 1568 0.000111574 0.989116239 999.8892 297.9747
0.072 0.4096268 288 1000.001 1576 0.000107389 0.989265779 999.8933 301.8257
0.073 0.4074681 292 1000.001 1584 0.000103776 0.989411266 999.8969 305.6806
0.074 0.4385302 296 1000.001 1592 0.000118176 0.989552863 999.8826 309.5395
0.075 0.4383295 300 1000.001 1600 0.000115394 0.989690722 999.8854 313.4021
0.076 0.4389561 304 1000.001 1608 0.000113137 0.98982499 999.8876 317.2682
0.077 0.4404171 308 1000.001 1616 0.000111377 0.989955806 999.8894 321.1378
0.078 0.4427241 312 1000.001 1624 0.000110095 0.9900833 999.8906 325.0107
0.079 0.4458938 316 1000.001 1632 0.000109278 0.990207599 999.8915 328.8868
0.08 0.4499479 320 1000.001 1640 0.000108916 0.99032882 999.8918 332.766
 82

0.081 0.4549135 324 1000.001 1648 0.000109007 0.990447077 999.8917 336.6481

0.082 0.4608231 328 1000.001 1656 0.000109555 0.990562476 999.8912 340.533
0.083 0.4677152 332 1000.001 1664 0.000110569 0.990675121 999.8902 344.4207
0.084 0.4756349 336 1000.001 1672 0.000112063 0.990785109 999.8887 348.3111
0.085 0.4846339 340 1000.001 1680 0.00011406 0.990892532 999.8867 352.204
0.086 0.4947715 344 1000.001 1688 0.000116586 0.990997479 999.8842 356.0994
0.087 0.5061149 348 1000.001 1696 0.000119678 0.991100036 999.8811 359.9972
0.088 0.5187404 352 1000.001 1704 0.00012338 0.991200282 999.8775 363.8972
0.089 0.5327339 356 1000.001 1712 0.000127746 0.991298294 999.8731 367.7995
0.09 0.4988545 360 1000.001 1720 0.00010893 0.991394148 999.8918 371.704
0.091 0.5137872 364 1000.001 1728 0.000113489 0.991487913 999.8873 375.6105
0.092 0.5302241 368 1000.001 1736 0.000118755 0.991579656 999.8821 379.519
0.093 0.5482834 372 1000.001 1744 0.00012481 0.991669444 999.876 383.4295
0.094 0.5680974 376 1000.001 1752 0.000131751 0.991757336 999.8691 387.3419
0.095 0.5337818 380 1000.001 1760 0.000113154 0.991843393 999.8876 391.2561
0.096 0.5546936 384 1000.001 1768 0.00012021 0.991927672 999.8806 395.1721
0.097 0.5775927 388 1000.001 1776 0.000128275 0.992010227 999.8726 399.0898
0.098 0.5435987 392 1000.001 1784 0.000110548 0.99209111 999.8902 403.0092
0.099 0.5677157 396 1000.001 1792 0.000118728 0.992170373 999.8821 406.9302
0.1 0.5941136 400 1000.001 1800 0.000128088 0.992248062 999.8728 410.8527
 83

Appendix2

Process In-Control

p0 LCL UCL Prob No Signal Prob Signal Events to Signal E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL0

0.01 0 398 0.981499978 0.01850002 54.05398848 98 5297.291

0.011 0 362 0.981555739 0.01844426 54.21740578 89.09090909 4830.278
0.012 0 332 0.9816114 0.0183886 54.38151991 81.66666667 4441.157
0.013 0 306 0.981518741 0.01848126 54.10886644 75.38461538 4078.976
0.014 0 284 0.981500204 0.0184998 54.05465149 70 3783.826
0.015 0 265 0.981500293 0.01849971 54.05491 65.33333333 3531.587
0.016 0 248 0.98138816 0.01861184 53.72923876 61.25 3290.916
0.017 0 234 0.981593566 0.01840643 54.32882909 57.64705882 3131.897
0.018 0 221 0.981612304 0.0183877 54.3841928 54.44444444 2960.917
0.019 0 209 0.981500775 0.01849923 54.05631852 51.57894737 2788.168
0.02 0 198 0.981313115 0.01868688 53.51346698 49 2622.16
0.021 0 189 0.981501093 0.01849891 54.05724907 46.66666667 2522.672
0.022 0 180 0.981351023 0.01864898 53.62224505 44.54545455 2388.627
0.023 0 172 0.981294454 0.01870555 53.46007997 42.60869565 2277.864
0.024 0 165 0.981388983 0.01861102 53.73161604 40.83333333 2194.041
0.025 0 158 0.981218743 0.01878126 53.24457138 39.2 2087.187
0.026 0 152 0.981275834 0.01872417 53.40691737 37.69230769 2013.03
0.027 0 147 0.981614532 0.01838547 54.39078424 36.2962963 1974.184
0.028 0 141 0.981238088 0.01876191 53.29947243 35 1865.482
0.029 0 136 0.981181022 0.01881898 53.13784803 33.79310345 1795.693
0.03 0 132 0.981503175 0.01849683 54.06333234 32.66666667 1766.069
0.031 0 128 0.981671805 0.01832819 54.56074786 31.61290323 1724.824
0.032 0 123 0.981085555 0.01891444 52.86964671 30.625 1619.133
0.033 0 120 0.981560446 0.01843955 54.23124617 29.6969697 1610.504
0.034 0 116 0.981277254 0.01872275 53.41096962 28.82352941 1539.493
0.035 0 113 0.981504797 0.0184952 54.06807474 28 1513.906
0.036 0 110 0.981617834 0.01838217 54.40055176 27.22222222 1480.904
0.037 0 107 0.981618268 0.01838173 54.40183699 26.48648649 1440.914
0.038 0 104 0.981505933 0.01849407 54.07139574 25.78947368 1394.473
0.039 0 101 0.981278581 0.01872142 53.41475407 25.12820513 1342.217
0.04 0 98 0.980931804 0.0190682 52.44334628 24.5 1284.862
0.041 0 96 0.981260082 0.01873992 53.36202707 23.90243902 1275.483
0.042 0 94 0.98150764 0.01849236 54.07638554 23.33333333 1261.782
0.043 0 92 0.981677432 0.01832257 54.57750302 22.79069767 1243.859
0.044 0 89 0.980932466 0.01906753 52.44516785 22.27272727 1168.097
0.045 0 87 0.980932667 0.01906733 52.44571901 21.77777778 1142.151
0.046 0 85 0.980854643 0.01914536 52.23198428 21.30434783 1112.768
0.047 0 84 0.981604536 0.01839546 54.36122654 20.85106383 1133.489
0.048 0 82 0.981396579 0.01860342 53.75355366 20.41666667 1097.468
0.049 0 80 0.981108744 0.01889126 52.93454226 20 1058.691
 84

0.05 0 78 0.98073728 0.01926272 51.91374897 19.6 1017.509

0.051 0 77 0.981283177 0.01871682 53.42786938 19.21568627 1026.653
0.052 0 75 0.980777186 0.01922281 52.02151993 18.84615385 980.4056
0.053 0 74 0.981226361 0.01877364 53.2661776 18.49056604 984.9218
0.054 0 73 0.981627772 0.01837223 54.42998054 18.14814815 987.8034
0.055 0 71 0.980935448 0.01906455 52.45337104 17.81818182 934.6237
0.056 0 70 0.981247136 0.01875286 53.32518778 17.5 933.1908
0.057 0 69 0.981516036 0.01848396 54.10095032 17.19298246 930.1567
0.058 0 67 0.980619741 0.01938026 51.59889672 16.89655172 871.8434
0.059 0 66 0.980798926 0.01920107 52.08041992 16.61016949 865.0646
0.06 0 65 0.980937378 0.01906262 52.45868136 16.33333333 856.8251
0.061 0 64 0.981035897 0.0189641 52.73120396 16.06557377 847.157
0.062 0 63 0.981095031 0.01890497 52.89614477 15.80645161 836.1004
0.063 0 62 0.981115085 0.01888492 52.95231552 15.55555556 823.7027
0.064 0 61 0.981096121 0.01890388 52.89919653 15.3125 810.0189
0.065 0 60 0.981037961 0.01896204 52.73694386 15.07692308 795.1108
0.066 0 59 0.980940179 0.01905982 52.46638945 14.84848485 779.0464
0.067 0 58 0.980802101 0.0191979 52.08903436 14.62686567 761.8993
0.068 0 57 0.980622797 0.0193772 51.60703501 14.41176471 743.7484
0.069 0 56 0.980401066 0.01959893 51.02318278 14.20289855 724.6771
0.07 0 56 0.981525948 0.01847405 54.12997538 14 757.8197
0.071 0 55 0.981256592 0.01874341 53.3520909 13.8028169 736.4091
0.072 0 54 0.980943518 0.01905648 52.47558157 13.61111111 714.251
0.073 0 53 0.980584607 0.01941539 51.50552573 13.42465753 691.444
0.074 0 53 0.981644285 0.01835572 54.47894548 13.24324324 721.4779
0.075 0 52 0.981240193 0.01875981 53.305452 13.06666667 696.5246
0.076 0 51 0.980786851 0.01921315 52.04768757 12.89473684 671.1412
0.077 0 50 0.98028107 0.01971893 50.71269022 12.72727273 645.4342
0.078 0 50 0.98130114 0.01869886 53.47919586 12.56410256 671.9181
0.079 0 49 0.980748603 0.0192514 51.94428235 12.40506329 644.3721
0.08 0 48 0.980137776 0.01986222 50.3468281 12.25 616.7486
0.081 0 48 0.981127517 0.01887248 52.98719928 12.09876543 641.0797
0.082 0 47 0.980467253 0.01953275 51.19607478 11.95121951 611.8555
0.083 0 47 0.981422407 0.01857759 53.82828698 11.80722892 635.5629
0.084 0 46 0.980711595 0.0192884 51.84461873 11.66666667 604.8539
0.085 0 46 0.981636763 0.01836324 54.45663064 11.52941176 627.8529
0.086 0 45 0.980873627 0.01912637 52.28382926 11.39534884 595.7925
0.087 0 44 0.98003619 0.01996381 50.09063831 11.26436782 564.2394
0.088 0 44 0.980955128 0.01904487 52.50757385 11.13636364 584.7434
0.089 0 43 0.980057857 0.01994214 50.14506137 11.01123596 552.1591
0.09 0 43 0.980956864 0.01904314 52.51235828 10.88888889 571.8012
0.091 0 42 0.979995891 0.02000411 49.98972963 10.76923077 538.3509
0.092 0 42 0.980878595 0.0191214 52.29741354 10.65217391 557.0811
0.093 0 41 0.979849238 0.02015076 49.62591389 10.53763441 522.9397
0.094 0 41 0.980719073 0.01928093 51.8647266 10.42553191 540.7174
0.095 0 41 0.98155226 0.01844774 54.20718213 10.31578947 559.1899
 85

0.096 0 40 0.980476 0.019524 51.21901373 10.20833333 522.8608

0.097 0 40 0.981300833 0.01869917 53.4783178 10.10309278 540.2964
0.098 0 39 0.980145981 0.01985402 50.36763665 10 503.6764
0.099 0 39 0.980965474 0.01903453 52.53611365 9.898989899 520.0545
0.1 0 38 0.97972444 0.02027556 49.32046366 9.8 483.3405

Process Out of Control

Prob Shifted Prob No signal Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL1

Prob Signal
0.01 0.02 0.999671336 0.000328664 3042.621642 49 149088.4605
0.011 0.022 0.999674668 0.000325332 3073.784538 44.54545455 136923.1294
0.012 0.024 0.999677975 0.000322025 3105.348543 40.83333333 126801.7322
0.013 0.026 0.999676047 0.000323953 3086.868664 37.69230769 116351.2035
0.014 0.028 0.999676739 0.000323261 3093.477958 35 108271.7285
0.015 0.03 0.999678087 0.000321913 3106.434163 32.66666667 101476.8493
0.016 0.032 0.999675501 0.000324499 3081.674359 30.625 94376.27724
0.017 0.034 0.999684012 0.000315988 3164.678126 28.82352941 91217.19303
0.018 0.036 0.999685987 0.000314013 3184.582772 27.22222222 86691.41992
0.019 0.038 0.99968347 0.00031653 3159.257434 25.78947368 81475.58646
0.02 0.04 0.999678313 0.000321687 3108.616095 24.5 76161.09432
0.021 0.042 0.999686155 0.000313845 3186.28261 23.33333333 74346.59422
0.022 0.044 0.99968234 0.00031766 3148.018548 22.27272727 70114.95858
0.023 0.046 0.999681747 0.000318253 3142.157322 21.30434783 66941.61252
0.024 0.048 0.99968634 0.00031366 3188.162616 20.41666667 65091.6534
0.025 0.05 0.999681869 0.000318131 3143.358895 19.6 61609.83434
0.026 0.052 0.999685182 0.000314818 3176.442967 18.84615385 59863.73283
0.027 0.054 0.999697931 0.000302069 3310.503759 18.14814815 60079.51266
0.028 0.056 0.999686614 0.000313386 3190.955871 17.5 55841.72775
0.029 0.058 0.999686042 0.000313958 3185.137043 16.89655172 53817.8328
0.03 0.06 0.999698179 0.000301821 3313.226898 16.33333333 54116.03933
0.031 0.062 0.999705042 0.000294958 3390.3109 15.80645161 53588.78519
0.032 0.064 0.999686921 0.000313079 3194.084887 15.3125 48909.42484
0.033 0.066 0.999704009 0.000295991 3378.482927 14.84848485 50165.35256
0.034 0.068 0.999696031 0.000303969 3289.804416 14.41176471 47411.88718
0.035 0.07 0.999704818 0.000295182 3387.737582 14 47428.32614
0.036 0.072 0.999709779 0.000290221 3445.645488 13.61111111 46899.06358
0.037 0.074 0.999711089 0.000288911 3461.26947 13.24324324 45838.43352
0.038 0.076 0.999708785 0.000291215 3433.894628 12.89473684 44279.16757
 86

0.039 0.078 0.99970277 0.00029723 3364.402094 12.56410256 42270.69298

0.04 0.08 0.999692801 0.000307199 3255.223016 12.25 39876.48194
0.041 0.082 0.999704842 0.000295158 3388.014699 11.95121951 40490.90738
0.042 0.084 0.999714057 0.000285943 3497.203859 11.66666667 40800.71168
0.043 0.086 0.999720679 0.000279321 3580.108496 11.39534884 40796.58519
0.044 0.088 0.999698321 0.000301679 3314.776316 11.13636364 36914.55442
0.045 0.09 0.999699697 0.000300303 3329.969536 10.88888889 36259.66828
0.046 0.092 0.999698553 0.000301447 3317.330367 10.65217391 35336.77999
0.047 0.094 0.999723535 0.000276465 3617.092314 10.42553191 37710.11136
0.048 0.096 0.999718393 0.000281607 3551.052814 10.20833333 36250.33081
0.049 0.098 0.999710721 0.000289279 3456.873873 10 34568.73873
0.05 0.1 0.999700309 0.000299691 3336.773849 9.8 32700.38372
0.051 0.102 0.999718809 0.000281191 3556.300193 9.607843137 34168.3744
0.052 0.104 0.99970434 0.00029566 3382.262301 9.423076923 31871.31784
0.053 0.106 0.99971969 0.00028031 3567.476557 9.245283019 32982.33043
0.054 0.108 0.999733149 0.000266851 3747.403732 9.074074074 34004.21905
0.055 0.11 0.999713384 0.000286616 3488.988475 8.909090909 31083.7155
0.056 0.112 0.999724263 0.000275737 3626.647632 8.75 31733.16678
0.057 0.114 0.999733625 0.000266375 3754.10929 8.596491228 32272.16758
0.058 0.116 0.999707686 0.000292314 3420.979795 8.448275862 28901.38103
0.059 0.118 0.999714597 0.000285403 3503.821445 8.305084746 29099.53404
0.06 0.12 0.999720172 0.000279828 3573.625039 8.166666667 29184.60448
0.061 0.122 0.999724479 0.000275521 3629.489112 8.032786885 29154.91254
0.062 0.124 0.99972757 0.00027243 3670.670636 7.903225806 29010.13889
0.063 0.126 0.999729481 0.000270519 3696.601278 7.777777778 28751.34327
0.064 0.128 0.999730233 0.000269767 3706.900288 7.65625 28380.95533
0.065 0.13 0.999729831 0.000270169 3701.383593 7.538461538 27902.73785
0.066 0.132 0.999728266 0.000271734 3680.068815 7.424242424 27321.72302
0.067 0.134 0.999725514 0.000274486 3643.176023 7.313432836 26644.12315
0.068 0.136 0.999721536 0.000278464 3591.124164 7.205882353 25877.21824
0.069 0.138 0.999716274 0.000283726 3524.523249 7.101449275 25029.22307
0.07 0.14 0.999750302 0.000249698 4004.840107 7 28033.88075
0.071 0.142 0.999743957 0.000256043 3905.588256 6.901408451 26954.0598
0.072 0.144 0.9997363 0.0002637 3792.193348 6.805555556 25807.98251
0.073 0.146 0.999727222 0.000272778 3665.985342 6.712328767 24607.29887
0.074 0.148 0.999758532 0.000241468 4141.341764 6.621621622 27422.39817
0.075 0.15 0.9997486 0.0002514 3977.725309 6.533333333 25987.80535
0.076 0.152 0.999737099 0.000262901 3803.709902 6.447368421 24523.91911
0.077 0.154 0.999723848 0.000276152 3621.197493 6.363636364 23043.98405
0.078 0.156 0.999754088 0.000245912 4066.493808 6.282051282 25545.92264
 87

0.079 0.158 0.999739996 0.000260004 3846.091464 6.202531646 23855.50402

0.08 0.16 0.999723862 0.000276138 3621.375467 6.125 22180.92473
0.081 0.162 0.99975313 0.00024687 4050.709741 6.049382716 24504.2935
0.082 0.164 0.99973607 0.00026393 3788.883377 5.975609756 22640.88847
0.083 0.166 0.999763605 0.000236395 4230.207498 5.903614458 24973.51414
0.084 0.168 0.999745581 0.000254419 3930.522773 5.833333333 22928.04951
0.085 0.17 0.999771696 0.000228304 4380.118328 5.764705882 25250.09389
0.086 0.172 0.999752637 0.000247363 4042.641049 5.697674419 23033.65249
0.087 0.174 0.999730758 0.000269242 3714.137394 5.632183908 20918.70486
0.088 0.176 0.999757412 0.000242588 4122.207955 5.568181818 22953.20338
0.089 0.178 0.999734162 0.000265838 3761.695723 5.505617978 20710.4596
0.09 0.18 0.999760016 0.000239984 4166.949142 5.444444444 22686.72311
0.091 0.182 0.99973522 0.00026478 3776.717925 5.384615385 20336.17344
0.092 0.184 0.999760505 0.000239495 4175.451958 5.326086957 22238.82021
0.093 0.186 0.999733942 0.000266058 3758.580052 5.268817204 19803.27124
0.094 0.188 0.999758876 0.000241124 4147.23677 5.212765957 21618.57465
0.095 0.19 0.999781525 0.000218475 4577.193208 5.157894737 23608.68076
0.096 0.192 0.999755069 0.000244931 4082.788942 5.104166667 20839.23522
0.097 0.194 0.999777635 0.000222365 4497.10854 5.051546392 22717.35242
0.098 0.196 0.999748968 0.000251032 3983.548853 5 19917.74426
0.099 0.198 0.999771637 0.000228363 4378.990522 4.949494949 21673.79147
0.1 0.2 0.999740385 0.000259615 3851.859889 4.9 18874.11345

Cost

Prob IC-Cost1 IC- OC- OC- % In control % In control Net Cost 1 Net Cost 2
Cost2 Cost1 Cost2 P/C No P/C
0.01 0.755103 40 995.7555 115.3623 0.004274404 0.927536232 995.75554 115.36232
0.011 0.8281097 44 995.3805 113.2308 0.004652409 0.933687003 995.38052 113.23077
0.012 0.9006661 48 995.014 112.0587 0.005021903 0.938875306 995.01401 112.05868
0.013 0.9806383 52 994.5691 111.6372 0.005470497 0.943310658 994.56906 111.63719
0.014 1.0571312 56 994.1666 111.814 0.005876318 0.947145877 994.16662 111.81395
0.015 1.1326351 60 993.7789 112.4752 0.00626733 0.95049505 993.77894 112.47525
0.016 1.2154671 64 993.3146 113.5345 0.006735688 0.953445065 993.3146 113.53445
0.017 1.2771811 68 993.0851 114.9244 0.006967337 0.956063269 993.08511 114.92443
0.018 1.3509328 72 992.7273 116.5923 0.007328405 0.958402662 992.7273 116.59235
0.019 1.4346338 76 992.266 118.4961 0.007793892 0.960505529 992.266 118.49605
0.02 1.52546 80 991.7316 120.6015 0.008333215 0.962406015 991.73158 120.6015
0.021 1.5856206 84 991.532 122.8809 0.008534859 0.964131994 991.53202 122.88092
0.022 1.674602 88 991.0264 125.3114 0.009045302 0.965706447 991.02638 125.31139
 88

0.023 1.7560309 92 990.6058 127.8739 0.009470032 0.967148489 990.60579 127.87385

0.024 1.82312 96 990.342 130.5523 0.009736557 0.968474149 990.34205 130.55233
0.025 1.9164548 100 989.8028 133.3333 0.010281152 0.96969697 989.80281 133.33333
0.026 1.9870544 104 989.5093 136.2054 0.01057786 0.970828471 989.50927 136.20537
0.027 2.0261536 108 989.547 139.1586 0.010540269 0.971878515 989.54696 139.15861
0.028 2.1442185 112 988.764 142.1846 0.011331098 0.972855592 988.76402 142.18458
0.029 2.2275525 116 988.3474 145.276 0.011752212 0.973767051 988.34742 145.27597
0.03 2.2649174 120 988.4113 148.4264 0.011688208 0.974619289 988.41132 148.4264
0.031 2.3190777 124 988.2993 151.6303 0.01180185 0.975417896 988.29928 151.63029
0.032 2.4704581 128 987.1962 154.8827 0.012916396 0.976167779 987.19624 154.88275
0.033 2.483695 132 987.5129 158.1795 0.012597098 0.976873265 987.51292 158.17946
0.034 2.5982586 136 986.7989 161.5166 0.013318936 0.977538185 986.79891 161.51662
0.035 2.6421718 140 986.804 164.8908 0.013314381 0.978165939 986.80401 164.89083
0.036 2.701053 144 986.6579 168.2991 0.013462613 0.978759558 986.65789 168.29907
0.037 2.7760167 148 986.3545 171.7386 0.013769827 0.979321754 986.35446 171.73863
0.038 2.8684675 152 985.8821 175.2071 0.014247815 0.979854956 985.8821 175.20709
0.039 2.9801443 156 985.223 178.7023 0.014914697 0.980361351 985.22297 178.70228
0.04 3.1131748 160 984.3519 182.2222 0.015796041 0.980842912 984.35186 182.22222
0.041 3.1360679 164 984.586 185.7651 0.015560075 0.981301421 984.58597 185.76515
0.042 3.1701189 168 984.7017 189.3294 0.01544375 0.981738495 984.70173 189.32944
0.043 3.2157976 172 984.7009 192.9136 0.015445288 0.982155603 984.70091 192.91363
0.044 3.4243734 176 983.123 196.5164 0.017041874 0.982554082 983.123 196.5164
0.045 3.5021632 180 982.8248 200.1365 0.017344329 0.982935154 982.82482 200.13652
0.046 3.5946385 184 982.3859 203.7729 0.017789252 0.983299933 982.38588 203.77288
0.047 3.5289258 188 983.4748 207.4245 0.016688348 0.983649444 983.47485 207.42446
0.048 3.6447519 192 982.8229 211.0903 0.017348719 0.983984625 982.82294 211.09033
0.049 3.7782512 196 982.005 214.7696 0.018177305 0.98430634 982.00498 214.76962
0.05 3.9311673 200 980.9995 218.4615 0.01919594 0.984615385 980.9995 218.46154
0.051 3.8961551 204 981.8002 222.1654 0.01838638 0.984912492 981.80017 222.16536
0.052 4.0799442 208 980.5179 225.8804 0.019685452 0.985198342 980.5179 225.8804
0.053 4.0612362 212 981.1613 229.606 0.019034968 0.985473562 981.16131 229.60604
0.054 4.049389 216 981.7168 233.3417 0.018473501 0.985738734 981.71677 233.3417
0.055 4.2797973 220 980.0382 237.0868 0.020174182 0.985994398 980.03825 237.08683
0.056 4.2863689 224 980.4388 240.8409 0.019769459 0.986241057 980.43884 240.84095
0.057 4.3003507 228 980.7595 244.6036 0.019445696 0.986479178 980.75946 244.60357
0.058 4.5879798 232 978.5703 248.3743 0.021664525 0.986709197 978.57027 248.37427
0.059 4.6239321 236 978.7138 252.1526 0.021520176 0.986931521 978.71383 252.15264
0.06 4.6683972 240 978.7755 255.9383 0.021458793 0.98714653 978.7755 255.9383
0.061 4.7216747 244 978.7555 259.7309 0.021480177 0.987354578 978.7555 259.73091
0.062 4.7841147 248 978.6531 263.5301 0.021585059 0.987555998 978.65311 263.53011
 89

0.063 4.8561211 252 978.4667 267.3356 0.021775119 0.987751102 978.46672 267.33562

0.064 4.9381561 256 978.1937 271.1471 0.02205303 0.987940183 978.1937 271.14713
0.065 5.0307451 260 977.8304 274.9644 0.022422516 0.988123515 977.83043 274.96437
0.066 5.1344824 264 977.3721 278.7871 0.022888432 0.988301357 977.37214 278.78708
0.067 5.2500376 268 976.8129 282.615 0.023456865 0.988473951 976.81289 282.61503
0.068 5.3781625 272 976.1454 286.448 0.024135262 0.988641527 976.14539 286.44798
0.069 5.5196998 276 975.3609 290.2857 0.024932582 0.988804299 975.36087 290.28571
0.07 5.2783007 280 977.9373 294.128 0.022319964 0.988962472 977.93735 294.12804
0.071 5.4317631 284 977.0775 297.9747 0.023193398 0.989116239 977.07754 297.97475
0.072 5.6002724 288 976.0883 301.8257 0.024198443 0.989265779 976.08832 301.82568
0.073 5.7849945 292 974.9558 305.6806 0.025349246 0.989411266 974.95583 305.68064
0.074 5.5441752 296 977.4627 309.5395 0.022806319 0.989552863 977.46266 309.53949
0.075 5.7427981 300 976.2532 313.4021 0.024035026 0.989690722 976.25322 313.40206
0.076 5.9599974 304 974.8773 317.2682 0.02543324 0.98982499 974.8773 317.26821
0.077 6.1973781 308 973.3139 321.1378 0.027022481 0.989955806 973.31388 321.13781
0.078 5.9531065 312 975.8576 325.0107 0.024440613 0.9900833 975.85764 325.01071
0.079 6.2075933 316 974.1982 328.8868 0.026127244 0.990207599 974.19824 328.8868
0.08 6.4856243 320 972.3127 332.766 0.028044438 0.99032882 972.31273 332.76596
0.081 6.2394739 324 974.8648 336.6481 0.025453091 0.990447077 974.8648 336.64807
0.082 6.537491 328 972.8612 340.533 0.02749036 0.990562476 972.86117 340.53303
0.083 6.2936335 332 975.3266 344.4207 0.02498681 0.990675121 975.32662 344.42074
0.084 6.6131674 336 973.1939 348.3111 0.027155408 0.990785109 973.1939 348.31109
0.085 6.3709189 340 975.5921 352.204 0.024719879 0.990892532 975.59211 352.20401
0.086 6.7137471 344 973.3162 356.0994 0.027034274 0.990997479 973.31619 356.09939
0.087 7.0891898 348 970.7096 359.9972 0.029686384 0.991100036 970.70961 359.99715
0.088 6.8406069 352 973.2286 363.8972 0.027126456 0.991200282 973.22865 363.89722
0.089 7.2442888 356 970.4286 367.7995 0.029975936 0.991298294 970.42857 367.79951
0.09 6.9954379 360 972.9271 371.704 0.027436344 0.991394148 972.92706 371.70396
0.091 7.4300976 364 969.9066 375.6105 0.030510808 0.991487913 969.90658 375.61049
0.092 7.1802825 368 972.4022 379.519 0.02797347 0.991579656 972.40222 379.51903
0.093 7.6490649 372 969.129 383.4295 0.031306144 0.991669444 969.12898 383.42952
0.094 7.3975801 376 971.6394 387.3419 0.028752964 0.991757336 971.63944 387.34191
0.095 7.1532053 380 973.9606 391.2561 0.026393188 0.991843393 973.96056 391.25612
0.096 7.6502202 384 970.618 395.1721 0.029796219 0.991927672 970.61795 395.1721
0.097 7.4033437 388 972.9737 399.0898 0.027400366 0.992010227 972.97374 399.08981
0.098 7.9416075 392 969.31 403.0092 0.03113182 0.99209111 969.30999 403.00917
0.099 7.6915022 396 971.7181 406.9302 0.028681813 0.992170373 971.71805 406.93016
0.1 8.2757386 400 967.6796 410.8527 0.032796776 0.992248062 967.67962 410.85271
 90

Appendix3

Process In Control

p0 LCL UCL Prob No Signal Prob Signal Events to Signal E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL0
0.01 1 199 0.853299995 0.1467 6.816632353 98 668.03
0.011 1 181 0.852437176 0.14756282 6.776774639 89.09090909 603.749
0.012 1 166 0.851574405 0.1484256 6.737382452 81.66666667 550.2196
0.013 1 153 0.850161846 0.14983815 6.673867605 75.38461538 503.1069
0.014 1 142 0.849023834 0.15097617 6.623562017 70 463.6493
0.015 1 133 0.848986372 0.15101363 6.621918908 65.33333333 432.632
0.016 1 124 0.846470106 0.15352989 6.513389519 61.25 398.9451
0.017 1 117 0.846161574 0.15383843 6.500326538 57.64705882 374.7247
0.018 1 111 0.846398761 0.15360124 6.510364167 54.44444444 354.4532
0.019 1 105 0.844988144 0.15501186 6.451119448 51.57894737 332.742
0.02 1 99 0.841912166 0.15808783 6.325597447 49 309.9543
0.021 1 95 0.842989314 0.15701069 6.368993275 46.66666667 297.2197
0.022 1 90 0.839911321 0.16008868 6.246537882 44.54545455 278.2549
0.023 1 86 0.838631282 0.16136872 6.196987957 42.60869565 264.0456
0.024 1 83 0.8395778 0.1604222 6.233551219 40.83333333 254.5367
0.025 1 79 0.836209409 0.16379059 6.105356816 39.2 239.33
0.026 1 76 0.835349396 0.1646506 6.073466939 37.69230769 228.923
0.027 1 74 0.837406978 0.16259302 6.150325448 36.2962963 223.234
0.028 1 71 0.835025872 0.16497413 6.061556507 35 212.1545
0.029 1 68 0.83178424 0.16821576 5.944746186 33.79310345 200.8914
0.03 1 66 0.831909842 0.16809016 5.949188283 32.66666667 194.3402
0.031 1 64 0.831469838 0.16853016 5.933655963 31.61290323 187.5801
0.032 1 62 0.830470205 0.1695298 5.898668135 30.625 180.6467
0.033 1 60 0.828910082 0.17108992 5.844879776 29.6969697 173.5752
0.034 1 58 0.826781739 0.17321826 5.773063372 28.82352941 166.4001
0.035 1 57 0.829002931 0.17099707 5.848053468 28 163.7455
0.036 1 55 0.825910763 0.17408924 5.744180489 27.22222222 156.3694
0.037 1 54 0.827420753 0.17257925 5.794439466 26.48648649 153.4743
0.038 1 52 0.823347191 0.17665281 5.660821376 25.78947368 145.9896
0.039 1 51 0.824173763 0.17582624 5.687433324 25.12820513 142.915
0.04 1 49 0.819064894 0.18093511 5.526843425 24.5 135.4077
0.041 1 48 0.819210505 0.1807895 5.531294825 23.90243902 132.2114
0.042 1 47 0.819064439 0.18093556 5.526829535 23.33333333 128.9594
0.043 1 46 0.818631511 0.18136849 5.513636921 22.79069767 125.6596
0.044 1 45 0.81791476 0.18208524 5.491933328 22.27272727 122.3203
 91

0.045 1 44 0.816915485 0.18308451 5.461958382 21.77777778 118.9493

0.046 1 43 0.815633251 0.18436675 5.423971538 21.30434783 115.5542
0.047 1 42 0.814065876 0.18593412 5.37824892 20.85106383 112.1422
0.048 1 41 0.812209411 0.18779059 5.325080475 20.41666667 108.7204
0.049 1 40 0.810058087 0.18994191 5.264767457 20 105.2953
0.05 1 39 0.807604259 0.19239574 5.197620244 19.6 101.8734
0.051 1 39 0.812190558 0.18780944 5.324545924 19.21568627 102.3148
0.052 1 38 0.809353637 0.19064636 5.245313807 18.84615385 98.85399
0.053 1 37 0.806201106 0.19379889 5.159988161 18.49056604 95.4111
0.054 1 37 0.810455809 0.18954419 5.27581454 18.14814815 95.74626
0.055 1 36 0.806925558 0.19307444 5.179349415 17.81818182 92.28659
0.056 1 35 0.803055606 0.19694439 5.077575353 17.5 88.85757
0.057 1 35 0.807044258 0.19295574 5.182535601 17.19298246 89.10324
0.058 1 34 0.802787 0.197213 5.070659645 16.89655172 85.67666
0.059 1 33 0.798154044 0.20184596 4.954273151 16.61016949 82.29132
0.06 1 33 0.801932546 0.19806745 5.048785057 16.33333333 82.46349
0.061 1 32 0.796887146 0.20311285 4.923371328 16.06557377 79.09679
0.062 1 32 0.800504657 0.19949534 5.012648332 15.80645161 79.23218
0.063 1 31 0.795032895 0.20496711 4.878831652 15.55555556 75.89294
0.064 1 31 0.798508623 0.20149138 4.962991538 15.3125 75.99581
0.065 1 30 0.792591237 0.20740876 4.82139705 15.07692308 72.69183
0.066 1 30 0.795942689 0.20405731 4.900584029 14.84848485 72.76625
0.067 1 29 0.789554798 0.2104452 4.751830847 14.62686567 69.50439
0.068 1 29 0.792797977 0.20720202 4.826207713 14.41176471 69.55417
0.069 1 28 0.785908695 0.2140913 4.670904317 14.20289855 66.34038
0.07 1 28 0.789058266 0.21094173 4.74064558 14 66.36904
0.071 1 28 0.792093434 0.20790657 4.809852899 13.8028169 66.38952
0.072 1 27 0.784699607 0.21530039 4.644673359 13.61111111 63.21917
0.073 1 27 0.787660872 0.21233913 4.709447619 13.42465753 63.22272
0.074 1 27 0.790516735 0.20948326 4.773651015 13.24324324 63.21862
0.075 1 26 0.782589071 0.21741093 4.599584787 13.06666667 60.10124
0.076 1 26 0.785388495 0.21461151 4.659582429 12.89473684 60.08409
0.077 1 25 0.776835864 0.22316414 4.481006745 12.72727273 57.03099
0.078 1 25 0.779589469 0.22041053 4.536988302 12.56410256 57.00319
0.079 1 25 0.782250596 0.2177494 4.592435083 12.40506329 56.96945
0.08 1 24 0.773066769 0.22693323 4.406582479 12.25 53.98064
0.081 1 24 0.775696512 0.22430349 4.458245424 12.09876543 53.93927
0.082 1 24 0.778240394 0.22175961 4.509387521 11.95121951 53.89268
0.083 1 24 0.780700356 0.21929964 4.55997093 11.80722892 53.84062
0.084 1 23 0.770888971 0.22911103 4.364696042 11.66666667 50.92145
 92

0.085 1 23 0.77333451 0.22666549 4.4117876 11.52941176 50.86532

0.086 1 23 0.775701871 0.22429813 4.458351937 11.39534884 50.80448
0.087 1 22 0.76512787 0.23487213 4.257635849 11.26436782 47.95958
0.088 1 22 0.767492095 0.2325079 4.300929037 11.13636364 47.89671
0.089 1 22 0.769783346 0.23021665 4.343734406 11.01123596 47.82988
0.09 1 22 0.772003129 0.22799687 4.386025107 10.88888889 47.75894
0.091 1 21 0.760653377 0.23934662 4.178040982 10.76923077 44.99429
0.092 1 21 0.762883441 0.23711656 4.217335163 10.65217391 44.92379
0.093 1 21 0.765046619 0.23495338 4.256163479 10.53763441 44.84989
0.094 1 21 0.767144223 0.23285578 4.294503714 10.42553191 44.77249
0.095 1 21 0.769177542 0.23082246 4.332334084 10.31578947 44.69145
0.096 1 20 0.75703965 0.24296035 4.115897915 10.20833333 42.01646
0.097 1 20 0.759097859 0.24090214 4.151063146 10.10309278 41.93858
0.098 1 20 0.761095711 0.23890429 4.185776671 10 41.85777
0.099 1 20 0.763034332 0.23696567 4.220020595 9.898989899 41.77394
0.1 1 19 0.749905365 0.25009464 3.998486408 9.8 39.18517

Process Out of Control

Prob Shifted Prob No signal Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL1

Prob Signal
0.01 0.02 0.961686853 0.038313147 26.10070099 49 1278.934349
0.011 0.022 0.959761301 0.040238699 24.85169797 44.54545455 1107.030182
0.012 0.024 0.957835648 0.042164352 23.71671677 40.83333333 968.4326016
0.013 0.026 0.955762662 0.044237338 22.60533854 37.69230769 852.0473757
0.014 0.028 0.953763422 0.046236578 21.62789803 35 756.9764312
0.015 0.03 0.95205808 0.04794192 20.85857208 32.66666667 681.3800211
0.016 0.032 0.949690818 0.050309182 19.87708713 30.625 608.7357933
0.017 0.034 0.947913828 0.052086172 19.1989535 28.82352941 553.3816008
0.018 0.036 0.946279591 0.053720409 18.6148994 27.22222222 506.7389281
0.019 0.038 0.944208708 0.055791292 17.92394406 25.78947368 462.2490836
0.02 0.04 0.941694532 0.058305468 17.15105004 24.5 420.2007259
0.021 0.042 0.940284319 0.059715681 16.74602017 23.33333333 390.7404707
0.022 0.044 0.937771438 0.062228562 16.0697912 22.27272727 357.9180768
0.023 0.046 0.935735329 0.064264671 15.56064922 21.30434783 331.5094833
0.024 0.048 0.934289543 0.065710457 15.21827797 20.41666667 310.7065086
0.025 0.05 0.931700416 0.068299584 14.64137765 19.6 286.971002
 93

0.026 0.052 0.929776772 0.070223228 14.24030244 18.84615385 268.3749306

0.027 0.054 0.928619873 0.071380127 14.00950146 18.14814815 254.246508
0.028 0.056 0.926297296 0.073702704 13.56802328 17.5 237.4404074
0.029 0.058 0.923743796 0.076256204 13.11368707 16.89655172 221.5760918
0.03 0.06 0.922081136 0.077918864 12.8338626 16.33333333 209.6197558
0.031 0.062 0.920267139 0.079732861 12.54188027 15.80645161 198.2426236
0.032 0.064 0.918305969 0.081694031 12.24079646 15.3125 187.4371958
0.033 0.066 0.916198127 0.083801873 11.93290752 14.84848485 177.1855965
0.034 0.068 0.913940447 0.086059553 11.61986045 14.41176471 167.4626947
0.035 0.07 0.912819131 0.087180869 11.47040646 14 160.5856905
0.036 0.072 0.910315584 0.089684416 11.15020923 13.61111111 151.7667367
0.037 0.074 0.909002608 0.090997392 10.98932592 13.24324324 145.5343162
0.038 0.076 0.90624705 0.09375295 10.66633102 12.89473684 137.5395316
0.039 0.078 0.904759651 0.095240349 10.49975153 12.56410256 131.9199551
0.04 0.08 0.901726754 0.098273246 10.17570942 12.25 124.6524404
0.041 0.082 0.900068938 0.099931062 10.00689854 11.95121951 119.5946411
0.042 0.084 0.898331821 0.101668179 9.835919268 11.66666667 114.7523915
0.043 0.086 0.896518495 0.103481505 9.663562626 11.39534884 110.1196671
0.044 0.088 0.894631077 0.105368923 9.490464293 11.13636364 105.6892614
0.045 0.09 0.892670746 0.107329254 9.317124286 10.88888889 101.4531311
0.046 0.092 0.890637765 0.109362235 9.143924291 10.65217391 97.4026718
0.047 0.094 0.88853148 0.11146852 8.971142726 10.42553191 93.52893481
0.048 0.096 0.886350304 0.113649696 8.798967696 10.20833333 89.82279523
0.049 0.098 0.884091675 0.115908325 8.627507999 10 86.27507999
0.05 0.1 0.881751996 0.118248004 8.456802392 9.8 82.87666344
0.051 0.102 0.881231246 0.118768754 8.419722919 9.607843137 80.89537706
0.052 0.104 0.878805231 0.121194769 8.251181172 9.423076923 77.75151489
0.053 0.106 0.876292768 0.123707232 8.083601776 9.245283019 74.73518623
0.054 0.108 0.875664413 0.124335587 8.042749629 9.074074074 72.98050589
0.055 0.11 0.873070262 0.126929738 7.878374423 8.909090909 70.18915395
0.056 0.112 0.870378583 0.129621417 7.714774462 8.75 67.50427654
0.057 0.114 0.869679008 0.130320992 7.673360883 8.596491228 65.96397952
0.058 0.116 0.86690281 0.13309719 7.513306613 8.448275862 63.4744869
0.059 0.118 0.864011509 0.135988491 7.353563492 8.305084746 61.07196798
0.06 0.12 0.863271943 0.136728057 7.313787816 8.166666667 59.72926717
0.061 0.122 0.860285455 0.139714545 7.157450948 8.032786885 57.49427811
0.062 0.124 0.859494553 0.140505447 7.117161798 7.903225806 56.24853679
0.063 0.126 0.856406875 0.143593125 6.964121734 7.777777778 54.16539126
0.064 0.128 0.85557541 0.14442459 6.924028638 7.65625 53.01209426
0.065 0.13 0.852377873 0.147622127 6.774052241 7.538461538 51.06593228
 94

0.066 0.132 0.851515642 0.148484358 6.734716137 7.424242424 50.00016526

0.067 0.134 0.848196681 0.151803319 6.587471248 7.313432836 48.17702853
0.068 0.136 0.847312749 0.152687251 6.549335296 7.205882353 47.19373963
0.069 0.138 0.84385754 0.15614246 6.404407867 7.101449275 45.48057761
0.07 0.14 0.842960448 0.157039552 6.367822529 7 44.5747577
0.071 0.142 0.841998645 0.158001355 6.329059629 6.901408451 43.67942561
0.072 0.144 0.838448353 0.161551647 6.189970929 6.805555556 42.12619105
0.073 0.146 0.837484009 0.162515991 6.153240637 6.712328767 41.30257414
0.074 0.148 0.836460771 0.163539229 6.114740829 6.621621622 40.48950008
0.075 0.15 0.83280219 0.16719781 5.980939588 6.533333333 39.07547198
0.076 0.152 0.831785771 0.168214229 5.944800301 6.447368421 38.32831773
0.077 0.154 0.827932889 0.172067111 5.811685883 6.363636364 36.98345562
0.078 0.156 0.826930582 0.173069418 5.778028321 6.282051282 36.29787022
0.079 0.158 0.825875354 0.174124646 5.743012385 6.202531646 35.62121606
0.08 0.16 0.821868924 0.178131076 5.613843593 6.125 34.38479201
0.081 0.162 0.82083624 0.17916376 5.581485904 6.049382716 33.76454436
0.082 0.164 0.819754077 0.180245923 5.547975706 5.975609756 33.15253776
0.083 0.166 0.818624857 0.181375143 5.51343466 5.903614458 32.54919257
0.084 0.168 0.814513086 0.185486914 5.391215895 5.833333333 31.44875939
0.085 0.17 0.813414902 0.186585098 5.359484829 5.764705882 30.89585372
0.086 0.172 0.812272221 0.187727779 5.326862136 5.697674419 30.35072612
0.087 0.174 0.807945686 0.192054314 5.206860386 5.632183908 29.32599528
0.088 0.176 0.806841811 0.193158189 5.177103831 5.568181818 28.82705543
0.089 0.178 0.805695474 0.194304526 5.146560517 5.505617978 28.33499611
0.09 0.18 0.804508592 0.195491408 5.115314319 5.444444444 27.85004463
0.091 0.182 0.800008554 0.199991446 5.000213855 5.384615385 26.92422845
0.092 0.184 0.798868193 0.201131807 4.971864045 5.326086957 26.48058024
0.093 0.186 0.797688718 0.202311282 4.942878073 5.268817204 26.04312103
0.094 0.188 0.796471819 0.203528181 4.913324509 5.212765957 25.61201074
0.095 0.19 0.795219117 0.204780883 4.883268329 5.157894737 25.18738401
0.096 0.192 0.790589315 0.209410685 4.775305523 5.104166667 24.37395527
0.097 0.194 0.789390147 0.210609853 4.748115935 5.051546392 23.98532792
0.098 0.196 0.788155997 0.211844003 4.720454599 5 23.602273
0.099 0.198 0.786888311 0.213111689 4.692375187 4.949494949 23.22488729
0.1 0.2 0.781985601 0.218014399 4.58685301 4.9 22.47557975
 95

Cost

Prob IC-Cost1 IC- OC- OC- % In control % In control Net Cost 1 Net Cost 2
Cost2 Cost1 Cost2 P/C No P/C
0.01 5.9877553 40 1003.128 1080 0.333518445 0.927536232 670.56307 115.36232
0.011 6.6252696 44 1003.613 1088 0.366335972 0.933687003 638.3807 113.23077
0.012 7.2698251 48 1004.13 1096 0.397902902 0.938875306 607.47668 112.05868
0.013 7.9505959 52 1004.695 1104 0.428940803 0.943310658 577.15041 111.63719
0.014 8.6272095 56 1005.284 1112 0.458132282 0.947145877 548.68345 111.81395
0.015 9.2457323 60 1005.87 1120 0.484342119 0.95049505 523.16312 112.47525
0.016 10.026442 64 1006.571 1128 0.512518343 0.953445065 495.82363 113.53445
0.017 10.674503 68 1007.228 1136 0.536291157 0.956063269 472.7853 114.92443
0.018 11.284989 72 1007.894 1144 0.558104364 0.958402662 451.68199 116.59235
0.019 12.021328 76 1008.653 1152 0.580631011 0.960505529 429.97789 118.49605
0.02 12.905129 80 1009.519 1160 0.603659274 0.962406015 407.9039 120.6015
0.021 13.458059 84 1010.237 1168 0.620912847 0.964131994 391.32414 122.88092
0.022 14.37531 88 1011.176 1176 0.641335211 0.965706447 371.89253 125.31139
0.023 15.1489 92 1012.066 1184 0.658768659 0.967148489 355.32827 127.87385
0.024 15.714828 96 1012.874 1192 0.673183568 0.968474149 341.60279 130.55233
0.025 16.713326 100 1013.939 1200 0.690420734 0.96969697 325.43362 133.33333
0.026 17.473125 104 1014.905 1208 0.704554891 0.970828471 312.15935 136.20537
0.027 17.918415 108 1015.733 1216 0.715686328 0.971878515 301.61068 139.15861
0.028 18.854186 112 1016.846 1224 0.729394264 0.972855592 288.91659 142.18458
0.029 19.911253 116 1018.052 1232 0.742824698 0.973767051 276.60853 145.27597
0.03 20.582468 120 1019.082 1240 0.753278153 0.974619289 266.93416 148.4264
0.031 21.324225 124 1020.177 1248 0.763502096 0.975417896 257.55088 151.63029
0.032 22.142667 128 1021.34 1256 0.773472601 0.976167779 248.48835 154.88275
0.033 23.044764 132 1022.575 1264 0.78317582 0.976873265 239.76713 158.17946
0.034 24.038453 136 1023.886 1272 0.792606277 0.977538185 231.40054 161.51662
0.035 24.428153 140 1024.909 1280 0.799414738 0.978165939 225.10983 164.89083
0.036 25.580459 144 1026.356 1288 0.808318878 0.978759558 217.41028 168.29907
0.037 26.062988 148 1027.485 1296 0.814732071 0.979321754 211.59436 171.73863
0.038 27.399211 152 1029.083 1304 0.823109275 0.979854956 204.5877 175.20709
0.039 27.988666 156 1030.321 1312 0.829101509 0.980361351 199.28582 178.70228
0.04 29.540425 160 1032.089 1320 0.83698157 0.980842912 192.97436 182.22222
0.041 30.254569 164 1033.446 1328 0.842554654 0.981301421 188.20244 185.76515
0.042 31.017525 168 1034.858 1336 0.847960215 0.981738495 183.64116 189.32944
0.043 31.832021 172 1036.324 1344 0.8531972 0.982155603 179.29427 192.91363
0.044 32.701023 176 1037.847 1352 0.858266349 0.982554082 175.164 196.5164
0.045 33.627768 180 1039.427 1360 0.863169866 0.982935154 171.25142 200.13652
0.046 34.615798 184 1041.067 1368 0.867911149 0.983299933 167.55673 203.77288
 96

0.047 35.668995 188 1042.768 1376 0.872494553 0.983649444 164.07954 207.42446

0.048 36.791626 192 1044.532 1384 0.876925199 0.983984625 160.81909 211.09033
0.049 37.988383 196 1046.363 1392 0.881208811 0.98430634 157.77444 214.76962
0.05 39.264437 200 1048.264 1400 0.885351585 0.984615385 154.94469 218.46154
0.051 39.095027 204 1049.447 1408 0.887784858 0.984912492 152.47177 222.16536
0.052 40.463718 208 1051.446 1416 0.891673492 0.985198342 149.97989 225.8804
0.053 41.923842 212 1053.522 1424 0.895436537 0.985473562 147.70008 229.60604
0.054 41.777087 216 1054.809 1432 0.897640251 0.985738734 145.4708 233.3417
0.055 43.343242 220 1056.989 1440 0.901168367 0.985994398 143.52349 237.08683
0.056 45.015861 224 1059.256 1448 0.904588172 0.986241057 141.78632 240.84095
0.057 44.891744 228 1060.639 1456 0.906561834 0.986479178 139.80132 244.60357
0.058 46.687159 232 1063.017 1464 0.909770023 0.986709197 138.39062 248.37427
0.059 48.607802 236 1065.496 1472 0.912887734 0.986931521 137.19128 252.15264
0.06 48.506315 240 1066.969 1480 0.914639461 0.98714653 135.44283 255.9383
0.061 50.570955 244 1069.572 1488 0.917570251 0.987354578 134.56697 259.73091
0.062 50.484536 248 1071.113 1496 0.919211986 0.987555998 132.93908 263.53011
0.063 52.705827 252 1073.848 1504 0.921970481 0.987751102 132.38505 267.33562
0.064 52.634482 256 1075.454 1512 0.923504806 0.987940183 130.8753 271.14713
0.065 55.026815 260 1078.33 1520 0.926105557 0.988123515 130.64324 274.96437
0.066 54.970541 264 1080 1528 0.92753601 0.988301357 129.24825 278.78708
0.067 57.55032 268 1083.027 1536 0.929993263 0.988473951 129.34061 282.61503
0.068 57.509133 272 1084.757 1544 0.931323967 0.988641527 128.05644 286.44798
0.069 60.295102 276 1087.95 1552 0.933651544 0.988804299 128.47839 290.28571
0.07 60.269067 280 1089.737 1560 0.934886939 0.988962472 127.30087 294.12804
0.071 60.250474 284 1091.576 1568 0.936111248 0.989116239 126.14059 297.97475
0.072 63.271952 288 1094.953 1576 0.938242818 0.989265779 126.98565 301.82568
0.073 63.268393 292 1096.846 1584 0.939377047 0.989411266 125.92694 305.68064
0.074 63.272496 296 1098.791 1592 0.940499449 0.989552863 124.88642 309.53949
0.075 66.554366 300 1102.366 1600 0.942457836 0.989690722 126.15721 313.40206
0.076 66.573365 304 1104.361 1608 0.94349592 0.98982499 125.21263 317.26821
0.077 70.1373 308 1108.156 1616 0.945370222 0.989955806 126.84406 321.13781
0.078 70.171516 312 1110.199 1624 0.946328575 0.9900833 125.99129 325.01071
0.079 70.213073 316 1112.293 1632 0.947276351 0.990207599 125.15531 328.8868
0.08 74.100647 320 1116.33 1640 0.949013097 0.99032882 127.24072 332.76596
0.081 74.15748 324 1118.467 1648 0.94988673 0.990447077 126.49127 336.64807
0.082 74.221582 328 1120.654 1656 0.950750334 0.990562476 125.75805 340.53303
0.083 74.293349 332 1122.891 1664 0.951603254 0.990675121 125.04206 344.42074
0.084 78.552353 336 1127.191 1672 0.95316283 0.990785109 127.66762 348.31109
0.085 78.639048 340 1129.467 1680 0.953948361 0.990892532 127.03141 352.20401
0.086 78.733221 344 1131.793 1688 0.954724109 0.990997479 126.41142 356.09939
 97

0.087 83.403573 348 1136.398 1696 0.956185782 0.991100036 129.53969 359.99715

0.088 83.513043 352 1138.759 1704 0.956899089 0.991200282 128.99509 363.89722
0.089 83.629723 356 1141.168 1712 0.957603603 0.991298294 128.46554 367.79951
0.09 83.753953 360 1143.626 1720 0.958298955 0.991394148 127.95174 371.70396
0.091 88.900174 364 1148.565 1728 0.959629254 0.991487913 131.67964 375.61049
0.092 89.039687 368 1151.054 1736 0.960268039 0.991579656 131.2356 379.51903
0.093 89.186385 372 1153.591 1744 0.960898746 0.991669444 130.80596 383.42952
0.094 89.340584 376 1156.177 1752 0.961521111 0.991757336 130.39125 387.34191
0.095 89.502586 380 1158.81 1760 0.962134904 0.991843393 129.992 391.25612
0.096 95.20079 384 1164.11 1768 0.963312898 0.991927672 134.41596 395.1721
0.097 95.377582 388 1166.769 1776 0.96387672 0.992010227 134.07974 399.08981
0.098 95.561716 392 1169.475 1784 0.964433104 0.99209111 133.75748 403.00917
0.099 95.753474 396 1172.229 1792 0.964981882 0.992170373 133.44962 406.93016
0.1 102.07944 400 1177.971 1800 0.966073346 0.992248062 138.58084 410.85271
 98

Appendix4

Process In Control

p0 LCL UCL Prob No Signal Prob Signal Events to Signal E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL0
0.0005 2 13212 0.997649577 0.00235042 425.4552433 1960 833892.3
0.0006 2 11010 0.997449998 0.00255 392.1565217 1633.333333 640522.3
0.0007 1 9437 0.997949814 0.00205019 487.7606166 1400 682864.9
0.0008 1 8257 0.99784972 0.00215028 465.0557222 1225 569693.3
0.0009 1 7339 0.997749356 0.00225064 444.3172473 1088.888889 483812.1
0.001 1 6605 0.997649532 0.00235047 425.4472176 980 416938.3
0.0011 1 6004 0.997549033 0.00245097 408.002192 890.9090909 363492.9
0.0012 1 5504 0.997449885 0.00255012 392.1391422 816.6666667 320247
0.0013 1 5080 0.997349115 0.00265088 377.2325346 753.8461538 284375.3
0.0014 0 4717 0.998649156 0.00135084 740.2781531 700 518194.7
0.0015 0 4402 0.998648386 0.00135161 739.8563766 653.3333333 483372.8
0.0016 0 4127 0.998648969 0.00135103 740.1752039 612.5 453357.3
0.0017 0 3884 0.998648739 0.00135126 740.0496675 576.4705882 426616.9
0.0018 0 3668 0.99864851 0.00135149 739.924148 544.4444444 402847.6
0.0019 0 3475 0.998648957 0.00135104 740.1689893 515.7894737 381771.4
0.002 0 3301 0.998648593 0.00135141 739.9693846 490 362585
0.0021 0 3144 0.998649446 0.00135055 740.4366152 466.6666667 345537.1
0.0022 0 3001 0.998649487 0.00135051 740.4592972 445.4545455 329841
0.0023 0 2870 0.998648176 0.00135182 739.7410265 426.0869565 315194
0.0024 0 2750 0.998647134 0.00135287 739.1713861 408.3333333 301828.3
0.0025 0 2640 0.998647446 0.00135255 739.3420327 392 289822.1
0.0026 0 2539 0.998649653 0.00135035 740.550137 376.9230769 279130.4
0.0027 0 2444 0.998646445 0.00135356 738.7952331 362.962963 268155.3
0.0028 0 2357 0.998647841 0.00135216 739.5580632 350 258845.3
0.0029 0 2276 0.998649236 0.00135076 740.3217658 337.9310345 250177.7
0.003 0 2200 0.998649007 0.00135099 740.1962366 326.6666667 241797.4
0.0031 0 2129 0.998649184 0.00135082 740.2931238 316.1290323 234028.1
0.0032 0 2062 0.998647465 0.00135253 739.3525611 306.25 226426.7
0.0033 0 2000 0.998649943 0.00135006 740.7095369 296.969697 219968.3
0.0034 0 1941 0.998649444 0.00135056 740.4356147 288.2352941 213419.7
0.0035 0 1885 0.998647183 0.00135282 739.1985039 280 206975.6
0.0036 0 1833 0.998649256 0.00135074 740.3328841 272.2222222 201535.1
0.0037 0 1783 0.998647267 0.00135273 739.2439403 264.8648649 195799.7
0.0038 0 1736 0.998647173 0.00135283 739.1926115 257.8947368 190633.9
0.0039 0 1691 0.998644908 0.00135509 737.9573004 251.2820513 185435.4
 99

0.004 0 1649 0.998646714 0.00135329 738.9418742 245 181040.8

0.0041 0 1609 0.998648246 0.00135175 739.7795938 239.0243902 176825.4
0.0042 0 1570 0.998644625 0.00135537 737.8034421 233.3333333 172154.1
0.0043 0 1534 0.998647923 0.00135208 739.6028438 227.9069767 168560.6
0.0044 0 1499 0.998647423 0.00135258 739.3292203 222.7272727 164668.8
0.0045 0 1466 0.998649632 0.00135037 740.5386117 217.7777778 161272.9
0.0046 0 1434 0.998649132 0.00135087 740.264678 213.0434783 157708.6
0.0047 0 1403 0.998646327 0.00135367 738.73095 208.5106383 154033.3
0.0048 0 1374 0.998648132 0.00135187 739.7170566 204.1666667 151025.6
0.0049 0 1346 0.998648716 0.00135128 740.0366156 200 148007.3
0.005 0 1319 0.998648486 0.00135151 739.9111589 196 145022.6

Process Out of Control

Prob Shifted Prob No Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL1

Prob signal Signal
0.0005 0.001 0.997999182 0.002000818 499.7955093 980 489799.5991
0.0006 0.0012 0.997599624 0.002400376 416.6013545 816.6666667 340224.4395
0.0007 0.0014 0.998598185 0.001401815 713.361106 700 499352.7742
0.0008 0.0016 0.998398186 0.001601814 624.292352 612.5 382379.0656
0.0009 0.0018 0.998198187 0.001801813 554.9964246 544.4444444 302164.7201
0.001 0.002 0.997998188 0.002001812 499.5474762 490 244778.2633
0.0011 0.0022 0.997798188 0.002201812 454.1714084 445.4545455 202312.7183
0.0012 0.0024 0.997598192 0.002401808 416.3529466 408.3333333 170010.7865
0.0013 0.0026 0.997398191 0.002601809 384.3479298 376.9230769 144869.6043
0.0014 0.0028 0.999998192 1.80794E-06 553115.0474 350 193590266.6
0.0015 0.003 0.999998191 1.8088E-06 552851.2176 326.6666667 180598064.4
0.0016 0.0032 0.999998194 1.80605E-06 553695.5663 306.25 169569267.2
0.0017 0.0034 0.999998195 1.80546E-06 553875.2404 288.2352941 159646392.8
0.0018 0.0036 0.999998195 1.80487E-06 554055.0581 272.2222222 150826099.1
0.0019 0.0038 0.999998198 1.80248E-06 554790.5885 257.8947368 143077572.8
0.002 0.004 0.999998198 1.80226E-06 554859.7244 245 135940632.5
0.0021 0.0042 0.999998201 1.79878E-06 555930.811 233.3333333 129717189.2
0.0022 0.0044 0.999998203 1.79748E-06 556334.7532 222.7272727 123910922.3
0.0023 0.0046 0.9999982 1.79978E-06 555624.1903 213.0434783 118372110.1
0.0024 0.0048 0.999998199 1.80136E-06 555136.9868 204.1666667 113340468.1
0.0025 0.005 0.999998201 1.79933E-06 555763.3607 196 108929618.7
0.0026 0.0052 0.999998208 1.79226E-06 557954.7697 188.4615385 105153014.3
0.0027 0.0054 0.9999982 1.7996E-06 555679.901 181.4814815 100845611.7
 100

0.0028 0.0056 0.999998205 1.79469E-06 557200.5896 175 97510103.17

0.0029 0.0058 0.99999821 1.78979E-06 558725.7964 168.9655172 94405393.18
0.003 0.006 0.999998211 1.7892E-06 558908.4946 163.3333333 91288387.45
0.0031 0.0062 0.999998212 1.78754E-06 559427.9395 158.0645161 88425706.57
0.0032 0.0064 0.999998209 1.7909E-06 558377.3358 153.125 85501529.54
0.0033 0.0066 0.999998217 1.78315E-06 560806.2399 148.4848485 83271229.56
0.0034 0.0068 0.999998217 1.78328E-06 560764.9851 144.1176471 80816130.21
0.0035 0.007 0.999998212 1.78807E-06 559262.6738 140 78296774.33
0.0036 0.0072 0.999998219 1.78139E-06 561358.27 136.1111111 76407097.86
0.0037 0.0074 0.999998215 1.78546E-06 560079.0463 132.4324324 74172630.46
0.0038 0.0076 0.999998215 1.78452E-06 560375.3637 128.9473684 72258928.47
0.0039 0.0078 0.999998211 1.78931E-06 558873.6538 125.6410256 70217459.06
0.004 0.008 0.999998217 1.78335E-06 560743.5541 122.5 68691085.37
0.0041 0.0082 0.999998222 1.77811E-06 562394.2092 119.5121951 67212966.46
0.0042 0.0084 0.999998214 1.78647E-06 559761.607 116.6666667 65305520.82
0.0043 0.0086 0.999998223 1.77659E-06 562877.5993 113.9534884 64141865.97
0.0044 0.0088 0.999998223 1.77671E-06 562836.8642 111.3636364 62679559.88
0.0045 0.009 0.99999823 1.76972E-06 565062.0999 108.8888889 61528984.21
0.0046 0.0092 0.99999823 1.76984E-06 565021.5205 106.5217391 60187075.01
0.0047 0.0094 0.999998224 1.77603E-06 563054.2588 104.2553191 58701401.45
0.0048 0.0096 0.99999823 1.7701E-06 564940.4985 102.0833333 57671009.22
0.0049 0.0098 0.999998233 1.76738E-06 565809.0845 100 56580908.45
0.005 0.01 0.999998233 1.7668E-06 565996.2065 98 55467628.24

Cost

Prob IC-Cost1 IC- OC- OC- % In control % In control Net Cost 1 Net Cost 2
Cost2 Cost1 Cost2 P/C No P/C
0.0005 0.0239839 10 1000.041 1020 0.012898035 0.864864865 987.14258 146.48649
0.0006 0.0312245 12 1000.059 1024 0.018463788 0.884792627 981.59449 128.58986
0.0007 0.0292884 14 1000.04 1028 0.012654404 0.899598394 987.38551 115.80723
0.0008 0.0351066 16 1000.052 1032 0.016461792 0.911032028 983.59023 106.39146
0.0009 0.0413384 18 1000.066 1036 0.020741192 0.920127796 979.32448 99.309904
0.001 0.0479687 20 1000.082 1040 0.025479912 0.927536232 974.60094 93.913043
0.0011 0.0550217 22 1000.099 1044 0.030664159 0.933687003 969.43335 89.771883
0.0012 0.0624518 24 1000.118 1048 0.036278961 0.938875306 963.83668 86.591687
0.0013 0.0703296 26 1000.138 1052 0.042308566 0.943310658 957.82662 84.163265
0.0014 0.0385955 28 1000 1056 3.30584E-05 0.947145877 999.96705 82.334038
0.0015 0.0413759 30 1000 1060 3.54366E-05 0.95049505 999.96468 80.990099
 101

0.0016 0.0441153 32 1000 1064 3.77413E-05 0.953445065 999.96238 80.044693

0.0017 0.0468805 34 1000 1068 4.0087E-05 0.956063269 999.96004 79.43058
0.0018 0.0496466 36 1000 1072 4.24312E-05 0.958402662 999.9577 79.094842
0.0019 0.0523874 38 1000 1076 4.4729E-05 0.960505529 999.95541 78.995261
0.002 0.0551595 40 1000 1080 4.70772E-05 0.962406015 999.95307 79.097744
0.0021 0.0578809 42 1000 1084 4.93357E-05 0.964131994 999.95082 79.374462
0.0022 0.0606353 44 1000 1088 5.16473E-05 0.965706447 999.94852 79.802469
0.0023 0.063453 46 1000 1092 5.40639E-05 0.967148489 999.94611 80.362681
0.0024 0.0662628 48 1000 1096 5.64638E-05 0.968474149 999.94372 81.039092
0.0025 0.0690079 50 1000 1100 5.87501E-05 0.96969697 999.94144 81.818182
0.0026 0.0716511 52 1000 1104 6.086E-05 0.970828471 999.93933 82.688448
0.0027 0.0745836 54 1000 1108 6.34593E-05 0.971878515 999.93674 83.640045
0.0028 0.0772662 56 1000 1112 6.56299E-05 0.972855592 999.93458 84.664495
0.0029 0.0799432 58 1000 1116 6.77881E-05 0.973767051 999.93243 85.75446
0.003 0.0827139 60 1000 1120 7.01026E-05 0.974619289 999.93012 86.903553
0.0031 0.0854598 62 1000 1124 7.23719E-05 0.975417896 999.92786 88.106195
0.0032 0.0883288 64 1000 1128 7.48469E-05 0.976167779 999.92539 89.357483
0.0033 0.0909222 66 1000 1132 7.68514E-05 0.976873265 999.9234 90.653099
0.0034 0.0937121 68 1000 1136 7.91858E-05 0.977538185 999.92107 91.989218
0.0035 0.0966298 70 1000 1140 8.17336E-05 0.978165939 999.91853 93.362445
0.0036 0.0992383 72 1000 1144 8.37548E-05 0.978759558 999.91652 94.769754
0.0037 0.1021452 74 1000 1148 8.62778E-05 0.979321754 999.914 96.208437
0.0038 0.1049131 76 1000 1152 8.85625E-05 0.979854956 999.91172 97.676068
0.0039 0.1078543 78 1000 1156 9.11371E-05 0.980361351 999.90916 99.170463
0.004 0.1104724 80 1000 1160 9.31621E-05 0.980842912 999.90714 100.68966
0.0041 0.1131059 82 1000 1164 9.52107E-05 0.981301421 999.9051 102.23186
0.0042 0.116175 84 1000 1168 9.79913E-05 0.981738495 999.90233 103.79547
0.0043 0.1186517 86 1000 1172 9.97689E-05 0.982155603 999.90055 105.37901
0.0044 0.1214559 88 1000 1176 0.000102096 0.982554082 999.89824 106.98116
0.0045 0.1240134 90 1000 1180 0.000104005 0.982935154 999.89633 108.60068
0.0046 0.1268162 92 1000 1184 0.000106324 0.983299933 999.89402 110.23647
0.0047 0.1298421 94 1000 1188 0.000109014 0.983649444 999.89134 111.88751
0.0048 0.1324279 96 1000 1192 0.000110962 0.983984625 999.8894 113.55285
0.0049 0.1351284 98 1000 1196 0.0001131 0.98430634 999.88727 115.23164
0.005 0.1379096 100 1000 1200 0.000115369 0.984615385 999.88501 116.92308
 102

Appendix5

Process In-Control

p0 LCL UCL Prob No Signal Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL0

Signal
0.0005 0 7998 0.9816752 0.0183248 54.57085551 1960 106958.9
0.0006 0 6665 0.981677033 0.01832297 54.57631514 1633.333333 89141.31
0.0007 0 5713 0.981680699 0.0183193 54.58723659 1400 76422.13
0.0008 0 4998 0.981669701 0.0183303 54.55448316 1225 66829.24
0.0009 0 4443 0.981677035 0.01832296 54.57632006 1088.888889 59427.55
0.001 0 3998 0.981666033 0.01833397 54.54357008 980 53452.7
0.0011 0 3635 0.981677037 0.01832296 54.57632516 890.9090909 48622.54
0.0012 0 3332 0.981677038 0.01832296 54.57632826 816.6666667 44570.67
0.0013 0 3075 0.981662365 0.01833763 54.53265974 753.8461538 41109.24
0.0014 0 2856 0.981680707 0.01831929 54.58725956 700 38211.08
0.0015 0 2665 0.981666036 0.01833396 54.54357919 653.3333333 35635.14
0.0016 0 2498 0.981655025 0.01834498 54.51083958 612.5 33387.89
0.0017 0 2351 0.981655025 0.01834497 54.51084122 576.4705882 31423.9
0.0018 0 2221 0.981677047 0.01832295 54.57635452 544.4444444 29713.79
0.0019 0 2104 0.981675214 0.01832479 54.57089762 515.7894737 28147.09
0.002 0 1998 0.981647681 0.01835232 54.48902653 490 26699.62
0.0021 0 1903 0.981655029 0.01834497 54.51085143 466.6666667 25438.4
0.0022 0 1817 0.981677055 0.01832295 54.57637934 445.4545455 24311.3
0.0023 0 1738 0.981678892 0.01832111 54.58185065 426.0869565 23256.61
0.0024 0 1665 0.981655033 0.01834497 54.51086293 408.3333333 22258.6
0.0025 0 1598 0.981638496 0.0183615 54.4617684 392 21349.01
0.0026 0 1537 0.981662382 0.01833762 54.53270953 376.9230769 20554.64
0.0027 0 1480 0.981660548 0.01833945 54.52725555 362.962963 19791.37
0.0028 0 1427 0.98165504 0.01834496 54.51088336 350 19078.81
0.0029 0 1378 0.981667897 0.0183321 54.54911584 337.9310345 18433.84
0.003 0 1332 0.981666064 0.01833394 54.54366132 326.6666667 17817.6
0.0031 0 1289 0.981666067 0.01833393 54.54366972 316.1290323 17242.84
0.0032 0 1248 0.981625626 0.01837437 54.42362231 306.25 16667.23
0.0033 0 1211 0.981677088 0.01832291 54.57647781 296.969697 16207.56
0.0034 0 1175 0.981655054 0.01834495 54.510925 288.2352941 15711.97
0.0035 0 1141 0.98162931 0.01837069 54.43453763 280 15241.67
0.0036 0 1110 0.9816771 0.0183229 54.57651237 272.2222222 14856.94
0.0037 0 1080 0.981678939 0.01832106 54.58199268 264.8648649 14456.85
0.0038 0 1051 0.981640356 0.01835964 54.46728576 257.8947368 14046.83
0.0039 0 1024 0.981638518 0.01836148 54.46183614 251.2820513 13685.28
 103

0.004 0 998 0.981610903 0.0183891 54.38004862 245 13323.11

0.0041 0 974 0.981638524 0.01836148 54.46185168 239.0243902 13017.71
0.0042 0 951 0.981655079 0.01834492 54.51100105 233.3333333 12719.23
0.0043 0 929 0.98166611 0.01833389 54.54379919 227.9069767 12430.91
0.0044 0 908 0.981677136 0.01832286 54.57662073 222.7272727 12155.7
0.0045 0 887 0.981610911 0.01838909 54.38007147 217.7777778 11842.77
0.0046 0 868 0.981636698 0.0183633 54.45643845 213.0434783 11601.59
0.0047 0 850 0.981678988 0.01832101 54.58213825 208.5106383 11380.96
0.0048 0 832 0.981655104 0.0183449 54.51107351 204.1666667 11129.34
0.0049 0 815 0.981655108 0.01834489 54.51108687 200 10902.22
0.005 0 798 0.981592477 0.01840752 54.32561427 196 10647.82

Process Out of Control

Prob Shifted Prob Prob No signal Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL1
Signal
0.0005 0.001 0.999664873 0.000335127 2983.94392 980 2924265.042
0.0006 0.0012 0.999665074 0.000334926 2985.737076 816.6666667 2438351.945
0.0007 0.0014 0.999665343 0.000334657 2988.129813 700 2091690.869
0.0008 0.0016 0.999665075 0.000334925 2985.740267 612.5 1828765.914
0.0009 0.0018 0.999665477 0.000334523 2989.330376 544.4444444 1627524.316
0.001 0.002 0.999665209 0.000334791 2986.939832 490 1463600.518
0.0011 0.0022 0.999665745 0.000334255 2991.730315 445.4545455 1332679.867
0.0012 0.0024 0.999665879 0.000334121 2992.931608 408.3333333 1222113.74
0.0013 0.0026 0.999665478 0.000334522 2989.340773 376.9230769 1126751.522
0.0014 0.0028 0.999666281 0.000333719 2996.536902 350 1048787.916
0.0015 0.003 0.999665881 0.000334119 2992.941704 326.6666667 977694.2898
0.0016 0.0032 0.999665613 0.000334387 2990.548157 306.25 915855.3729
0.0017 0.0034 0.999665748 0.000334252 2991.750261 288.2352941 862328.0165
0.0018 0.0036 0.999666684 0.000333316 3000.157958 272.2222222 816709.6663
0.0019 0.0038 0.999666752 0.000333248 3000.7641 257.8947368 773881.2679
0.002 0.004 0.999665883 0.000334117 2992.961759 245 733275.6309
0.0021 0.0042 0.999666285 0.000333715 2996.567543 233.3333333 699199.0934
0.0022 0.0044 0.999667221 0.000332779 3004.993294 222.7272727 669293.961
0.0023 0.0046 0.999667421 0.000332579 3006.807046 213.0434783 640580.6316
0.0024 0.0048 0.999666688 0.000333312 3000.189833 204.1666667 612538.7576
0.0025 0.005 0.99966622 0.00033378 2995.987859 196 587213.6203
0.0026 0.0052 0.999667223 0.000332777 3005.01847 188.4615385 566330.4039
0.0027 0.0054 0.999667291 0.000332709 3005.627866 181.4814815 545465.7979
 104

0.0028 0.0056 0.999667225 0.000332775 3005.032038 175 525880.6066

0.0029 0.0058 0.999667826 0.000332174 3010.468784 168.9655172 508665.4152
0.003 0.006 0.999667893 0.000332107 3011.080506 163.3333333 491809.8159
0.0031 0.0062 0.999668027 0.000331973 3012.296912 158.0645161 476137.2538
0.0032 0.0064 0.999666693 0.000333307 3000.241457 153.125 459411.9732
0.0033 0.0066 0.999668695 0.000331305 3018.364278 148.4848485 448181.3625
0.0034 0.0068 0.99966803 0.00033197 3012.32221 144.1176471 434128.7891
0.0035 0.007 0.999667231 0.000332769 3005.084686 140 420711.856
0.0036 0.0072 0.999669097 0.000330903 3022.029809 136.1111111 411331.8351
0.0037 0.0074 0.999669297 0.000330703 3023.860421 132.4324324 400457.1909
0.0038 0.0076 0.999668034 0.000331966 3012.35825 128.9473684 388435.6691
0.0039 0.0078 0.999668102 0.000331898 3012.972569 125.6410256 378552.9638
0.004 0.008 0.999667235 0.000332765 3005.12722 122.5 368128.0844
0.0041 0.0082 0.999668371 0.000331629 3015.413339 119.5121951 360378.6674
0.0042 0.0084 0.999669103 0.000330897 3022.092889 116.6666667 352577.5038
0.0043 0.0086 0.999669636 0.000330364 3026.964167 113.9534884 344933.126
0.0044 0.0088 0.999670168 0.000329832 3031.844445 111.3636364 337637.2223
0.0045 0.009 0.999667908 0.000332092 3011.217502 108.8888889 327888.128
0.0046 0.0092 0.999668975 0.000331025 3020.924064 106.5217391 321794.0851
0.0047 0.0094 0.999670636 0.000329364 3036.150002 104.2553191 316534.7874
0.0048 0.0096 0.999669908 0.000330092 3029.458986 102.0833333 309257.2715
0.0049 0.0098 0.999670042 0.000329958 3030.689858 100 303068.9858
0.005 0.01 0.999667914 0.000332086 3011.271444 98 295104.6015

Cost

Prob IC-Cost1 IC- OC- OC- % In control % In control Net Cost 1 Net Cost 2
Cost2 Cost1 Cost2 P/C No P/C
0.0005 0.1869878 10 1000.007 1020 0.002183805 0.864864865 997.82343 146.48649
0.0006 0.2243629 12 1000.008 1024 0.002617853 0.884792627 997.39092 128.58986
0.0007 0.2617043 14 1000.01 1028 0.003050392 0.899598394 996.95994 115.80723
0.0008 0.2992702 16 1000.011 1032 0.003487423 0.911032028 996.52452 106.39146
0.0009 0.3365443 18 1000.012 1036 0.00391695 0.920127796 996.09661 99.309904
0.001 0.3741626 20 1000.014 1040 0.00435374 0.927536232 995.66149 93.913043
0.0011 0.4113318 22 1000.015 1044 0.004779401 0.933687003 995.2375 89.771883
0.0012 0.4487256 24 1000.016 1048 0.005209547 0.938875306 994.80907 86.591687
0.0013 0.4865087 26 1000.018 1052 0.005647965 0.943310658 994.37243 84.163265
 105

0.0014 0.5234084 28 1000.019 1056 0.00606527 0.947145877 993.95686 82.334038

0.0015 0.5612438 30 1000.02 1060 0.006503442 0.95049505 993.52053 80.990099
0.0016 0.5990196 32 1000.022 1064 0.00693951 0.953445065 993.08633 80.044693
0.0017 0.6364583 34 1000.023 1068 0.007367093 0.956063269 992.66062 79.43058
0.0018 0.6730881 36 1000.024 1072 0.007775392 0.958402662 992.25414 79.094842
0.0019 0.7105529 38 1000.026 1076 0.008202171 0.960505529 991.82929 78.995261
0.002 0.7490742 40 1000.027 1080 0.008652441 0.962406015 991.38108 79.097744
0.0021 0.7862131 42 1000.029 1084 0.009070306 0.964131994 990.96517 79.374462
0.0022 0.8226628 44 1000.03 1088 0.009471744 0.965706447 990.56565 79.802469
0.0023 0.8599704 46 1000.031 1092 0.009892104 0.967148489 990.14732 80.362681
0.0024 0.898529 48 1000.033 1096 0.01034028 0.968474149 989.70132 81.039092
0.0025 0.9368114 50 1000.034 1100 0.010781424 0.96969697 989.26237 81.818182
0.0026 0.9730165 52 1000.035 1104 0.011174542 0.970828471 988.87125 82.688448
0.0027 1.0105412 54 1000.037 1108 0.011597022 0.971878515 988.45094 83.640045
0.0028 1.0482835 56 1000.038 1112 0.012023733 0.972855592 988.02645 84.664495
0.0029 1.0849612 58 1000.039 1116 0.012425606 0.973767051 987.62671 85.75446
0.003 1.1224859 60 1000.041 1120 0.012845993 0.974619289 987.20857 86.903553
0.0031 1.1599019 62 1000.042 1124 0.013263225 0.975417896 986.79361 88.106195
0.0032 1.1999591 64 1000.044 1128 0.013739449 0.976167779 986.31997 89.357483
0.0033 1.233992 66 1000.045 1132 0.014078888 0.976873265 985.98248 90.653099
0.0034 1.2729147 68 1000.046 1136 0.014527995 0.977538185 985.5359 91.989218
0.0035 1.3121921 70 1000.048 1140 0.014984365 0.978165939 985.08212 93.362445
0.0036 1.3461723 72 1000.049 1144 0.015320834 0.978759558 984.74767 94.769754
0.0037 1.383427 74 1000.05 1148 0.015730335 0.979321754 984.34058 96.208437
0.0038 1.4238092 76 1000.051 1152 0.016209275 0.979854956 983.86446 97.676068
0.0039 1.461424 78 1000.053 1156 0.016625408 0.980361351 983.45084 99.170463
0.004 1.5011508 80 1000.054 1160 0.017088171 0.980842912 982.99088 100.68966
0.0041 1.5363684 82 1000.055 1164 0.017449215 0.981301421 982.63212 102.23186
0.0042 1.5724218 84 1000.057 1168 0.017828415 0.981738495 982.25533 103.79547
0.0043 1.6088924 86 1000.058 1172 0.01821633 0.982155603 981.8699 105.37901
0.0044 1.6453184 88 1000.059 1176 0.018602638 0.982554082 981.4861 106.98116
0.0045 1.6887939 90 1000.061 1180 0.019145161 0.982935154 980.947 108.60068
0.0046 1.7239018 92 1000.062 1184 0.019500656 0.983299933 980.5939 110.23647
0.0047 1.7573215 94 1000.063 1188 0.019818243 0.983649444 980.27852 111.88751
0.0048 1.7970511 96 1000.065 1192 0.020275155 0.983984625 979.82464 113.55285
0.0049 1.8344892 98 1000.066 1196 0.020680586 0.98430634 979.42198 115.23164
0.005 1.8783187 100 1000.068 1200 0.021226873 0.984615385 978.87933 116.92308
 106

Appendix6

Process In- Control

p0 LCL UCL Prob No Signal Prob Signal Events to Signal E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL0
0.0005 1 3999 0.864097021 0.13590298 7.358190429 1960 14422.05
0.0006 1 3333 0.864037647 0.13596235 7.354977153 1633.333333 12013.13
0.0007 1 2857 0.863951189 0.13604881 7.350303114 1400 10290.42
0.0008 1 2499 0.863756376 0.13624362 7.339793033 1225 8991.246
0.0009 1 2222 0.863737653 0.13626235 7.338784505 1088.888889 7991.121
0.001 1 1999 0.863529269 0.13647073 7.32757852 980 7181.027
0.0011 1 1818 0.863537659 0.13646234 7.32802908 890.9090909 6528.608
0.0012 1 1666 0.863356373 0.13664363 7.318306896 816.6666667 5976.617
0.0013 1 1538 0.863283477 0.13671652 7.314404835 753.8461538 5513.936
0.0014 1 1428 0.863156374 0.13684363 7.307611077 700 5115.328
0.0015 1 1333 0.863097032 0.13690297 7.304443551 653.3333333 4772.236
0.0016 1 1249 0.862847891 0.13715211 7.291174805 612.5 4465.845
0.0017 1 1176 0.862856378 0.13714362 7.29162602 576.4705882 4203.408
0.0018 1 1111 0.862837696 0.1371623 7.290632846 544.4444444 3969.345
0.0019 1 1052 0.862602144 0.13739786 7.278133945 515.7894737 3753.985
0.002 1 999 0.862393594 0.13760641 7.267103558 490 3560.881
0.0021 1 952 0.862456391 0.13754361 7.270421415 466.6666667 3392.863
0.0022 1 909 0.862437727 0.13756227 7.269434965 445.4545455 3238.203
0.0023 1 869 0.862188583 0.13781142 7.256292869 426.0869565 3091.812
0.0024 1 833 0.862156405 0.13784359 7.25459897 408.3333333 2962.295
0.0025 1 799 0.861825672 0.13817433 7.237234416 392 2836.996
0.0026 1 769 0.861983538 0.13801646 7.245512516 376.9230769 2731.001
0.0027 1 740 0.861693574 0.13830643 7.230322026 362.962963 2624.339
0.0028 1 714 0.861756431 0.13824357 7.233609528 350 2531.763
0.0029 1 689 0.861507152 0.13849285 7.22058945 337.9310345 2440.061
0.003 1 666 0.861393572 0.13860643 7.214672599 326.6666667 2356.793
0.0031 1 645 0.861497145 0.13850286 7.220067753 316.1290323 2282.473
0.0032 1 624 0.861030486 0.13896951 7.195822821 306.25 2203.721
0.0033 1 606 0.861337849 0.13866215 7.211773298 296.969697 2141.678
0.0034 1 588 0.861156482 0.13884352 7.202352818 288.2352941 2075.972
0.0035 1 571 0.860961483 0.13903852 7.192251605 280 2013.83
0.0036 1 555 0.86079358 0.13920642 7.183576732 272.2222222 1955.529
0.0037 1 540 0.860693583 0.13930642 7.178420212 264.8648649 1901.311
0.0038 1 526 0.860702235 0.13929777 7.178866056 257.8947368 1851.392
0.0039 1 512 0.860330446 0.13966955 7.159756537 251.2820513 1799.118
 107

0.004 1 499 0.860121565 0.13987843 7.149064848 245 1751.521

0.0041 1 487 0.860116834 0.13988317 7.148823015 239.0243902 1708.743
0.0042 1 476 0.860356577 0.13964342 7.161096297 233.3333333 1670.922
0.0043 1 465 0.860297305 0.13970269 7.158058061 227.9069767 1631.371
0.0044 1 454 0.859939243 0.14006076 7.139758655 222.7272727 1590.219
0.0045 1 444 0.859893623 0.14010638 7.137433867 217.7777778 1554.374
0.0046 1 434 0.859575985 0.14042402 7.12128904 213.0434783 1517.144
0.0047 1 425 0.859625658 0.14037434 7.123808971 208.5106383 1485.39
0.0048 1 416 0.859430428 0.14056957 7.113915095 204.1666667 1452.424
0.0049 1 408 0.859656684 0.14034332 7.125383846 200 1425.077
0.005 1 399 0.85898521 0.14101479 7.09145471 196 1389.925

Process Out of Control

Prob Shifted Prob No Prob Signal Events to E[X|LCL<X<UCL] ARL1

Prob signal Signal
0.0005 0.001 0.980684367 0.019315633 51.77153715 980 50736.10641
0.0006 0.0012 0.980499025 0.019500975 51.27948823 816.6666667 41878.24872
0.0007 0.0014 0.980306354 0.019693646 50.77779921 700 35544.45945
0.0008 0.0016 0.980084377 0.019915623 50.21183561 612.5 30754.74931
0.0009 0.0018 0.979910028 0.020089972 49.77607716 544.4444444 27100.30867
0.001 0.002 0.979684386 0.020315614 49.22322207 490 24119.37881
0.0011 0.0022 0.979517365 0.020482635 48.82184448 445.4545455 21747.91254
0.0012 0.0024 0.979299061 0.020700939 48.30698645 408.3333333 19725.3528
0.0013 0.0026 0.97911006 0.02088994 47.86993104 376.9230769 18043.2817
0.0014 0.0028 0.978906405 0.021093595 47.40775673 350 16592.71486
0.0015 0.003 0.978721066 0.021278934 46.99483477 326.6666667 15351.64602
0.0016 0.0032 0.978484424 0.021515576 46.47795588 306.25 14233.87399
0.0017 0.0034 0.978317426 0.021682574 46.11998636 288.2352941 13293.40783
0.0018 0.0036 0.978143062 0.021856938 45.7520629 272.2222222 12454.72823
0.0019 0.0038 0.977910122 0.022089878 45.2696031 257.8947368 11674.79238
0.002 0.004 0.977684459 0.022315541 44.81182008 245 10978.89592
0.0021 0.0042 0.977532128 0.022467872 44.50799753 233.3333333 10385.19942
0.0022 0.0044 0.977357757 0.022642243 44.16523494 222.7272727 9836.802328
0.0023 0.0046 0.97712117 0.02287883 43.70852813 213.0434783 9311.816862
0.0024 0.0048 0.976943159 0.023056841 43.37107592 204.1666667 8854.928
0.0025 0.005 0.976684515 0.023315485 42.8899497 196 8406.430141
0.0026 0.0052 0.976557833 0.023442167 42.65817235 188.4615385 8039.424788
0.0027 0.0054 0.976310233 0.023689767 42.21231927 181.4814815 7660.754239
0.0028 0.0056 0.976157874 0.023842126 41.9425687 175 7339.949522
 108

0.0029 0.0058 0.975921268 0.024078732 41.53042675 168.9655172 7017.210037

0.003 0.006 0.975721287 0.024278713 41.18834397 163.3333333 6727.429515
0.0031 0.0062 0.975579885 0.024420115 40.94984825 158.0645161 6472.717949
0.0032 0.0064 0.975284613 0.024715387 40.46062445 153.125 6195.533118
0.0033 0.0066 0.975198207 0.024801793 40.31966541 148.4848485 5986.859409
0.0034 0.0068 0.974979962 0.025020038 39.96796423 144.1176471 5760.088963
0.0035 0.007 0.974758034 0.025241966 39.6165655 140 5546.319169
0.0036 0.0072 0.974543407 0.025456593 39.28255377 136.1111111 5346.792042
0.0037 0.0074 0.974347095 0.025652905 38.98193981 132.4324324 5162.47311
0.0038 0.0076 0.974180071 0.025819929 38.72977281 128.9473684 4994.102283
0.0039 0.0078 0.973910459 0.026089541 38.32953637 125.6410256 4815.762262
0.004 0.008 0.973684755 0.026315245 38.00078622 122.5 4655.096312
0.0041 0.0082 0.973514177 0.026485823 37.7560472 119.5121951 4512.30808
0.0042 0.0084 0.973409439 0.026590561 37.60732976 116.6666667 4387.521805
0.0043 0.0086 0.973224082 0.026775918 37.34699186 113.9534884 4255.820003
0.0044 0.0088 0.972958275 0.027041725 36.97988991 111.3636364 4118.215012
0.0045 0.009 0.97277662 0.02722338 36.73313127 108.8888889 3999.82985
0.0046 0.0092 0.972521645 0.027478355 36.39228102 106.5217391 3876.569065
0.0047 0.0094 0.972365695 0.027634305 36.18690548 104.2553191 3772.677379
0.0048 0.0096 0.972143726 0.027856274 35.89855555 102.0833333 3664.644212
0.0049 0.0098 0.972035257 0.027964743 35.75931337 100 3575.931337
0.005 0.01 0.971684978 0.028315022 35.31694209 98 3461.060325

Cost

Prob IC-Cost1 IC- OC- OC- % In control % In control Net Cost 1 Net Cost 2
Cost2 Cost1 Cost2 P/C No P/C
0.0005 1.3867651 10 1000.394 1020 0.112013233 0.864864865 888.49214 146.48649
0.0006 1.6648451 12 1000.478 1024 0.132564875 0.884792627 868.07009 128.58986
0.0007 1.9435544 14 1000.563 1028 0.152582727 0.899598394 848.19065 115.80723
0.0008 2.2243857 16 1000.65 1032 0.172252542 0.911032028 828.6689 106.39146
0.0009 2.5027778 18 1000.738 1036 0.191043016 0.920127796 810.03213 99.309904
0.001 2.785117 20 1000.829 1040 0.209702826 0.927536232 791.53654 93.913043
0.0011 3.0634403 22 1000.92 1044 0.227370324 0.933687003 774.03674 89.771883
0.0012 3.3463745 24 1001.014 1048 0.244972768 0.938875306 756.61254 86.591687
0.0013 3.6271731 26 1001.108 1052 0.261830636 0.943310658 739.93729 84.163265
0.0014 3.9098179 28 1001.205 1056 0.278349035 0.947145877 723.6091 82.334038
0.0015 4.1909072 30 1001.303 1060 0.294230606 0.95049505 707.92196 80.990099
0.0016 4.4784362 32 1001.405 1064 0.310169579 0.953445065 692.18878 80.044693
 109

0.0017 4.758044 34 1001.505 1068 0.324981844 0.956063269 677.58 79.43058

0.0018 5.0386153 36 1001.606 1072 0.339437404 0.958402662 663.33363 79.094842
0.0019 5.327672 38 1001.713 1076 0.354084289 0.960505529 648.90867 78.995261
0.002 5.616588 40 1001.822 1080 0.36826275 0.962406015 634.95645 79.097744
0.0021 5.8947261 42 1001.926 1084 0.381288291 0.964131994 622.15083 79.374462
0.0022 6.1762653 44 1002.033 1088 0.394166282 0.965706447 609.49996 79.802469
0.0023 6.4686991 46 1002.148 1092 0.407336723 0.967148489 596.57114 80.362681
0.0024 6.751523 48 1002.259 1096 0.419536559 0.968474149 584.607 81.039092
0.0025 7.0497106 50 1002.379 1100 0.432244636 0.96969697 572.15333 81.818182
0.0026 7.3233225 52 1002.488 1104 0.443230952 0.970828471 561.40007 82.688448
0.0027 7.6209663 54 1002.611 1108 0.455167617 0.971878515 549.7236 83.640045
0.0028 7.8996325 56 1002.725 1112 0.465795015 0.972855592 539.3402 84.664495
0.0029 8.1965155 58 1002.85 1116 0.476999315 0.973767051 528.40104 85.75446
0.003 8.4861079 60 1002.973 1120 0.487528803 0.974619289 518.13195 86.903553
0.0031 8.7624255 62 1003.09 1124 0.497175501 0.975417896 508.73464 88.106195
0.0032 9.0755601 64 1003.228 1128 0.508116643 0.976167779 498.08267 89.357483
0.0033 9.3384714 66 1003.341 1132 0.516676567 0.976873265 489.76302 90.653099
0.0034 9.63404 68 1003.472 1136 0.526311939 0.977538185 480.4033 91.989218
0.0035 9.9313227 70 1003.606 1140 0.535729869 0.978165939 471.26479 93.362445
0.0036 10.22741 72 1003.741 1144 0.544829599 0.978759558 462.44519 94.769754
0.0037 10.519056 74 1003.874 1148 0.553514801 0.979321754 454.03739 96.208437
0.0038 10.802684 76 1004.005 1152 0.561694098 0.979854956 446.129 97.676068
0.0039 11.116556 78 1004.153 1156 0.570625505 0.980361351 437.50109 99.170463
0.004 11.418648 80 1004.296 1160 0.57891852 0.980842912 429.50107 100.68966
0.0041 11.70451 82 1004.432 1164 0.586493705 0.981301421 422.20371 102.23186
0.0042 11.969436 84 1004.558 1168 0.593278059 0.981738495 415.67714 103.79547
0.0043 12.259624 86 1004.699 1172 0.600610746 0.982155603 408.62942 105.37901
0.0044 12.576884 88 1004.856 1176 0.608468261 0.982554082 401.08584 106.98116
0.0045 12.866912 90 1005 1180 0.615394684 0.982935154 394.44665 108.60068
0.0046 13.182663 92 1005.159 1184 0.622775944 0.983299933 387.38008 110.23647
0.0047 13.464478 94 1005.301 1188 0.62913624 0.983649444 381.3008 111.88751
0.0048 13.770081 96 1005.458 1192 0.635889343 0.983984625 374.85406 113.55285
0.0049 14.034332 98 1005.593 1196 0.641544111 0.98430634 369.46436 115.23164
0.005 14.389264 100 1005.779 1200 0.649017427 0.984615385 362.34964 116.92308
 110

Appendix 7-Hospital graphs

Figure 12: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control charts vs. following up on
every failure when d = 2 and C/F = 1

Figure 13: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control chart vs. following up on
every failure when d = 0.5 and C/F = 1
 111

Figure 14: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-charts vs. following up on every failure when d = 2
and C/F = 1

Figure 15: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when d = 0.5
and C/F = 1
 112

Figure 16: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 2 and
C/F = 1

Figure 17: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when d = 0.5
and C/F = 1
 113

Appendix8 -Pacemaker manufacturing graphs

Figure 18: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control charts vs. following up on
every failure when d = 2 and C/F = 1

Figure 19: Comparing total cost per hour of using probability based control charts vs. following up on
every failure when d = 0.5 and C/F = 1
 114

Figure 20: Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when d = 2 and
C/F = 1

Figure 21:Comparing total cost per hour of using g-chart vs. following up on every failure when d = 0.5
and C/F =1
 115

Figure 22: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 2 and
C/F = 1

Figure 23: Comparing total cost per hour of using EWMA vs. following up on every failure when d = 0.5
and C/F = 1