Alabama Senate Poll

11/10/17

Sponsor(s) Decision Desk HQ served as the sponsoring

organization. Opinion Savvy, LLC conducted the
survey on behalf of the sponsor.
Target Population Likely voters; Alabama; 2017 Senate special
election

Sampling Frame & Methodology Frame:

The sample frame includes registered voters with
either a landline telephone or internet-enabled
mobile smartphone. Registered voters without
access to either a landline telephone or an
internet-enabled smartphone are excluded from
the frame.

Methodology
Blended sample; mixed mode

Contacted voters of both modes were selected

randomly from a list of registered Alabama voters
purchased by Opinion Savvy from Aristotle, Inc.
Only voters determined likely to vote in the 2017
Senate special election were selected to
participate in the survey, based on past election
participation. Voters without a valid landline
telephone number were selected for the mobile
sample.

Landline: selected voters were contacted on

November 9th 2017 using an automated
interactive voice response system. The survey
was presented in English.

Mobile: selected voters not available by landline

telephone were contacted on November 9th 2018
on their mobile devices. Using voter data,
selected voters were first matched to online and
mobile application profiles electronically, using IP
verification to ensure accurate selection and to
prevent duplicate results. Selected voters were
shown a brief message, push notification, or
mobile advertisement requesting their
participation in the survey. Respondents were
offered a small, non-monetary prize for survey
participation. Respondents answered a web-
based survey instrument identical to that of
landline respondents in written form. The survey
was presented in English.
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Weighting The blended sample was weighted for age, race,
gender, party affiliation, and media market using
propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were
determined using 2014 and 2016 primary and
general election results with voter turnout figures
provided by the Alabama Secretary of State.

Total Number of Respondents 515

Margin of Error* 4.3% (95% confidence; not adjusted for

weighting)

*The reported margin of sampling error is calculated using

multiple assumptions that modern surveys rarely fit. The
estimate assumes that, insofar as probability-based sampling
is possible under real-world conditions, this model conforms to
these parameters. Disregarding response rates, each
individual within the studied population is equally likely to be
selected for survey participation.
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
1. How likely are you to vote in the December 12 election to determine the next US Senator for
Alabama?
a. I will definitely vote.
b. I am considering voting.
c. I am unsure, or I do not plan on voting. [TERMINATE]
Likely
Frequency Percent
Definitely 479 93.1
Considering 35 6.9
Total 515 100.0

2. If the election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama were held today and your choices
were: Democratic nominee and former United States attorney Doug Jones; and Republican
nominee and former Alabama Supreme Court justice Roy Moore, for whom would you vote?
a. Democratic nominee Doug Jones
b. Republican nominee Roy Moore
c. Another candidate
d. I am undecided
Horserace 1
Frequency Percent
Jones 237 46.0
Moore 239 46.4
Other 20 3.8
Undecided 19 3.7
Total 515 100.0

3. Have you read, seen, or heard any news stories in the past 24 hours regarding Senate candidate
Roy Moore, which allege that Moore engaged in a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl in
1979, when he was 32 years old?
a. Yes
b. No
c. I am unsure

Moore 1
Frequency Percent
Yes 423 82.2
No 48 9.4
Unsure 43 8.4
Total 515 100.0
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
4. [IF Q3 =A] Given the current allegations made against Senate candidate Roy Moore, do you
believe that he should withdraw himself as a candidate in the Senate election?
a. Yes
b. No
c. I am unsure

Moore 2
Frequency Percent
Yes 148 34.9
No 229 54.0
Unsure 47 11.1
Total 423 100.0
*MOE = 4.7%

5. If the election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama were held today and your choices
were: Democratic nominee and former United States attorney Doug Jones; Republican nominee
and former Alabama Supreme Court justice Roy Moore; and current US Senator for Alabama
Luther Strange as a write-in candidate, for whom would you vote?
a. Democratic nominee Doug Jones
b. Republican nominee Roy Moore
c. Write-in candidate Senator Luther Strange
d. Another candidate
e. I am undecided

Horserace 2
Frequency Percent
Jones 224 43.6
Moore 212 41.3
Strange 63 12.3
Other 7 1.4
Undecided 8 1.5
Total 515 100.0
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
6. Would you describe yourself as an evangelical Christian?
a. Yes
b. No
c. I am unsure.

Evangelical
Frequency Percent
Yes 288 56.6
No 172 33.7
Unsure 49 9.7
Total 510 100.0

7. What is your age?

a. 18-29
b. 30-44
c. 45-64
d. 65+

Age
Frequency Percent
18-29 31 6.0
30-44 88 17.0
45-64 232 45.0
65+ 165 32.0
Total 515 100.0

8. What is your race or ethnicity?

a. White
b. African-American
c. Other

Race
Frequency Percent
White 389 75.5
African - American 116 22.5
Other 10 2.0
Total 515 100.0
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
9. What is your gender?
a. Male
b. Female

Gender
Frequency Percent
Male 237 46.0
Female 278 54.0
Total 515 100.0

10. What is your party affiliation?

a. Democrat
b. Republican
c. Independent or another party

Party
Frequency Percent
Democrat 149 29.0
Republican 299 58.0
Independent / other 67 13.0
Total 515 100.0

11. What is your highest level of education?

a. Less than high school
b. High school diploma
c. Associates degree or trade school
d. College degree or higher

Education
Frequency Percent
< HS 9 1.8
HS diploma 123 25.0
Asoc. or trade 93 19.0
College+ 266 54.2
Total 490 100.0
*MOE = 4.4%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
12. Media market
a. Huntsville
b. Birmingham (incl. Columbus, MS and Atlanta)
c. Montgomery (incl Meridian)
d. Columbus, GA
e. Dothan
f. Mobile
Media Market
Frequency Percent
Huntsville 103 20.0
Birmingham 211 41.0
Montgomery 72 14.0
Columbus 26 5.0
Dothan 26 5.0
Mobile 77 15.0
Total 515 100.0

13. Collection mode

a. Landline
b. Mobile

Mode
Frequency Percent
Landline 390 75.7
Mobile 125 24.3
Total 515 100.0
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Evangelical
Yes No Unsure
Column N % Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 37.4% 62.1% 36.2%
Moore 57.9% 31.6% 35.0%
Other 2.9% 2.2% 15.1%
Undecided 1.8% 4.0% 13.7%
Moore 1
Yes 80.9% 90.7% 62.6%
No 11.8% 6.3% 4.5%
Unsure 7.2% 3.0% 32.9%
Moore 2
Yes 25.7% 47.9% 37.1%
No 64.6% 39.3% 52.0%
Unsure 9.6% 12.8% 10.9%
Horserace 2
Jones 34.3% 59.7% 39.2%
Moore 50.9% 30.2% 27.5%
Strange 13.1% 7.4% 24.8%
Other 1.1% .9% 3.2%
Undecided .6% 1.8% 5.4%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Column N % Column N % Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 64.8% 57.0% 44.8% 38.4%
Moore 35.2% 36.5% 47.6% 52.2%
Other 0.0% 1.1% 4.9% 4.5%
Undecided 0.0% 5.5% 2.7% 4.9%
Moore 1
Yes 90.9% 97.3% 77.1% 79.7%
No 8.3% 2.1% 10.1% 12.5%
Unsure .8% .5% 12.8% 7.8%
Moore 2
Yes 48.2% 46.9% 27.9% 33.7%
No 38.6% 41.8% 61.2% 55.5%
Unsure 13.2% 11.3% 10.9% 10.9%
Horserace 2
Jones 59.7% 56.1% 44.3% 33.0%
Moore 40.3% 34.2% 41.7% 44.5%
Strange 0.0% 5.7% 11.9% 18.6%
Other 0.0% 1.8% .9% 2.2%
Undecided 0.0% 2.2% 1.2% 1.6%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Race

White African - American Other

Column N % Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 36.8% 75.5% 61.2%
Moore 54.4% 20.8% 34.6%
Other 5.0% .3% .7%
Undecided 3.8% 3.5% 3.4%
Moore 1
Yes 86.1% 70.4% 66.5%
No 7.6% 14.1% 22.9%
Unsure 6.2% 15.5% 10.6%
Moore 2
Yes 31.3% 49.1% 42.2%
No 58.4% 36.4% 52.1%
Unsure 10.4% 14.6% 5.6%
Horserace 2
Jones 32.7% 78.9% 58.2%
Moore 48.8% 17.2% 25.0%
Strange 15.2% 2.0% 16.0%
Other 1.3% 1.9% .7%
Undecided 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Gender
Male Female
Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 35.8% 54.7%
Moore 55.5% 38.7%
Other 4.5% 3.3%
Undecided 4.2% 3.3%
Moore 1
Yes 84.4% 80.3%
No 6.1% 12.2%
Unsure 9.5% 7.5%
Moore 2
Yes 33.1% 36.4%
No 60.9% 47.8%
Unsure 5.9% 15.7%
Horserace 2
Jones 34.7% 51.2%
Moore 51.6% 32.4%
Strange 10.6% 13.7%
Other .5% 2.2%
Undecided 2.6% .5%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Party

Democrat Republican Independent / other

Column N % Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 88.8% 20.5% 64.8%
Moore 8.8% 69.3% 28.3%
Other .3% 5.2% 5.9%
Undecided 2.2% 5.0% 1.0%
Moore 1
Yes 75.9% 85.9% 79.6%
No 14.4% 7.8% 5.2%
Unsure 9.7% 6.3% 15.2%
Moore 2
Yes 64.0% 19.8% 45.7%
No 21.8% 72.9% 31.6%
Unsure 14.2% 7.3% 22.7%
Horserace 2
Jones 91.1% 15.7% 61.9%
Moore 6.0% 63.0% 22.7%
Strange 2.7% 17.7% 9.2%
Other 0.0% 1.2% 5.8%
Undecided .2% 2.3% .3%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Education
< HS HS diploma Asoc. or trade College+
Column N % Column N % Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 48.5% 41.6% 43.4% 50.3%
Moore 48.4% 51.9% 52.1% 42.3%
Other 3.1% 1.5% 1.6% 3.8%
Undecided 0.0% 5.0% 2.9% 3.5%
Moore 1
Yes 22.0% 74.5% 87.7% 87.5%
No 22.0% 12.1% 8.0% 9.1%
Unsure 55.9% 13.4% 4.3% 3.4%
Moore 2
Yes 0.0% 28.7% 34.7% 38.1%
No 100.0% 61.1% 51.8% 51.4%
Unsure 0.0% 10.2% 13.5% 10.6%
Horserace 2
Jones 48.5% 40.0% 42.2% 46.8%
Moore 44.8% 45.8% 49.0% 36.7%
Strange 3.1% 11.8% 5.8% 13.5%
Other 3.6% 2.3% .1% 1.2%
Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 1.7%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Media Market
Huntsville Birmingham Montgomery Columbus Dothan Mobile
Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N Column N
% % % % % %
Horserace
Jones 47.1% 45.7% 41.6% 61.8% 27.6% 50.4%
1
Moore 46.4% 48.7% 46.1% 33.9% 67.8% 37.7%
Other 1.3% 1.9% 12.3% 0.0% 4.6% 5.6%
Undecided 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 6.4%
Moore 1
Yes 83.2% 82.2% 75.6% 75.3% 78.6% 90.6%
No 10.2% 12.0% 7.3% 5.9% 14.7% 2.5%
Unsure 6.7% 5.7% 17.1% 18.7% 6.6% 7.0%
Moore 2
Yes 31.8% 36.1% 23.0% 51.9% 22.5% 43.9%
No 56.1% 53.7% 66.4% 44.9% 70.5% 40.3%
Unsure 12.1% 10.2% 10.6% 3.1% 7.0% 15.8%
Horserace
Jones 43.9% 44.7% 41.0% 63.1% 23.8% 42.7%
2
Moore 40.9% 43.4% 43.8% 18.0% 65.0% 33.4%
Strange 11.1% 10.0% 13.1% 15.9% 11.3% 18.5%
Other .4% 1.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Undecided 3.8% .4% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.5%
 Alabama Senate Poll
11/10/17
Mode
Landline Mobile
Column N % Column N %
Horserace 1
Jones 41.8% 59.3%
Moore 50.4% 34.0%
Other 4.9% .5%
Undecided 2.9% 6.2%
Moore 1
Yes 77.0% 98.3%
No 11.9% 1.5%
Unsure 11.0% .2%
Moore 2
Yes 27.7% 52.5%
No 61.3% 36.2%
Unsure 11.0% 11.3%
Horserace 2
Jones 38.6% 59.3%
Moore 43.7% 33.5%
Strange 15.5% 2.1%
Other 1.5% 1.3%
Undecided .7% 3.8%