1. Introduction
Figure 1. Map of Cayambe zone from google maps that shows the Cayambe coca Ecological Reserve
and Cayambe Volcano.
A western basal volcano, Old Cayambe, comprised mainly of lava flows. It is presently
extinct and shows evidence of intense glacial erosion.
2. Definitions
2.1. Hazard
Hazards are threatening events, capable of producing damage to the physical and
social space where they take place not only at the moment of their occurrence, but on a long-
term basis due to their associated consequences. When these consequences have a major
impact on society and/or infrastructure, they become natural disasters (Alcntara, 2001).
2.2. Disaster
A disaster is a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the functioning of a
community or society and causes human, material, and economic or environmental losses that
exceed the communitys or societys ability to cope using its own resources. Though often
caused by nature, disasters can have human origins (IFRC, 2017). A disaster occurs when a
hazard impacts on vulnerable living beings.
2.4. Risk
According to the definition of the Society Risk Analysis, risk is the potential for the
realization of unwanted consequences of a decision or an action. In other words, a risk is the
probability of harm if someone or something that is vulnerable is exposed to a hazard. Risk is
defined by four parameters: a probability, level of severity, time period, and location.
2.5. Vulnerability
Vulnerability can be defined as the diminished capacity of an individual or group to
anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made hazard.
Vulnerability may also vary in its forms: poverty, for example, may mean that housing is
unable to withstand an earthquake or a hurricane, or lack of preparedness may result in a
slower response to a disaster, leading to greater loss of life or prolonged suffering ( IFRC,
2017).
2.6. Preparedness
Preparedness refers to measures taken to prepare for and reduce the effects of disasters. That
is, to predict and, where possible, prevent disasters, mitigate their impact on vulnerable
populations, and respond to and effectively cope with their consequences (IFRC, 2017).
2.7. Resilience
Resilience is that ineffable quality that allows some people to be knocked down by life and
come back stronger than ever. Rather than letting failure overcome them and drain their
resolve, they find a way to rise from the ashes (Knaus, 2016).
3. Historical Background
Even if it doesnt look that way, Cayambe Volcano is much more active than previously
believed. Its activity during the past 4000 years has been mainly characterized by lava dome
extrusions, dome collapses, and pyroclastic flows. The numerous ash and lapilli layers in the
peat bog document at least 21 eruptive events during the past 4000 years, grouped into three
main eruptive periods of activity of 300, 800, and 900 years duration. The last period,
corresponding to four recent pyroclastic flow units observed on the north-northeast flank,
probably has not ended, as implied by the 1785-1756 eruption. The recent pyroclastic flows
descended into uninhabited areas, and tephra fell mainly on the upper slopes of Nevado
Cayambe. Given the summit topography, products of future eruptions will probably have a
similar distribution and will not generate significant hazards for the inhabited areas west of
the volcano. Nevertheless, a large eruption near the summit would melt ice and snow,
resulting in mudflows, some of which would certainly move toward the town of Cayambe
and adjacent inhabited areas, creating a serious hazard for more than 30000 people
(Samaniego, 1997).
4. Current Events
Chingual
Fig 2. Registered events near to Cayambe Volcano since June 2016, the blue circle represents the
system of fault Chingual. Picture taken from I-G EPN.
In addition, it is also possible that a little phreatic eruption happens. It could form a small
eruptive column with a fall of ballistic blocks near to the crater, and a fall of ash.
And the other event could be a little magmatic eruption; in this case, the eruptive column
could be bigger, and the fall of ash and lapilli could reach populated areas such as Cayambe,
Ayora, Olmedo and Pesillo. It could also create small lahars and a new lava dome.
According to Instituto Geofsico, these events could happen in a medium term.
5. Potential Hazards
5.7. Lahars
Lahars are one of the greatest volcanic hazards. They can bury complete villages. Lahars are
flows of water and tephra that have the consistency of wet concrete. They have a wide range
of velocities that depends on the channel width, channel slope, volume of the flow, and grain
size composition. When a lahar travels down valley, the high point of the lahar is usually
marked by the mudline it leaves on trees, valley walls, and buildings. Then lahars are
extremely dangerous especially to those living in valley areas near a volcano.
5.8. Earthquakes
An earthquake is the shaking of the surface of the Earth, resulting from the sudden release of
energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in size
from those that are so weak that they cannot be felt to those violent enough to toss people
around and destroy whole cities (Wikipedia, 2017).
6.1. Demography
According to the last population census in 2010, the Cayambe Canton has a total of 85,795
people of which 43,822 and 41,967 are women and men respectively. The growth rate in
2010 was 2, 29, and it does not follow a pattern.
Fig 3. Total of population and growth rate since 1950 until 2010. Graph taken from INEC
6.2. Distribution of population
Cayambe canton is divided in 8 parishes (3 urbans: Cayambe, Ayora and Juan Montalvo; 5
rural: Asczubi, Cangahua, Otn, Santa Rosa de Cusbamba and Olmedo).
Fig 4. Politic map of Cayambe that shows its principal divisions. Map taken from ESPE.
6.3. Socioeconomic
According to the Universidad Tcnica del Norte at the national level, poverty is a social
problem that according to the statistics it is said that unsatisfied basic needs are 60.6%;
approximately have grown by 8.46% in relation to the year 1990, while in the Canton of
Cayambe in relation to the statistics for the year 2010 shows that it has decreased
considerably, and at the cantonal level poverty has also decreased by 12%.
The principal activity that has permitted the growth of Cayambe is the floriculture. They have
won international claim with the big exportation of roses. In addition, the other principal
activities of Cayambe are agriculture and farming in rural areas, the trade and provision of
services in urban zones and the tourism (Cayambe Volcano).
6.4. Education
According to some organizations responsible for enhancing the education in Ecuador,
Cayambe presents 8 principal problems in the educational field.
Lack of 10 years of basic education in the schools of the Network.
Exclusion of children and adolescents from the regular educational system: especially
the first and eighth of basic.
Severe educational delay.
Difficulties in accompanying the educational process of children and adolescents,
because of the long work days of their parents.
Poor quality of education.
Local governments focus on infrastructure.
Education is considered a family problem.
Authorities do not consider education in their work plans.
This information is very worrying because it is an indicator that a big number of people could
ignore the risks of having an active volcano over their heads.
The principal affected zone by pyroclastic flows and Lahars is the all Olmedo parish. Olmedo
is a very organized parish that has 4 schools, 6 health centers and different recreational
zones such as parks, stadiums, among others. In case of a volcanic eruption, there is a big
risk of losing resources and infrastructure from a notable area around 351,24 Km2.
Also, it is important to mention that there is a big area that would be affected by ash falls,
since Cayambe Volcano until the North of Quito.
Fig 6. Map of volcanic risks based on ash falls. Map taken from IGEPN.
Volcanic Ash
10 kg / m2 or 1cm of thickness
100 kg / m2 or 10 cm of thickness
Cayambe Volcano can seem a dormant volcano, but actually, it is active. Until 2016, The
Geophysics Institute has kept the alert of a volcanic hazard, but at the beginning of 2017 the
hazard decreased. Despite of that, authorities are designing a contingency plan because if a
volcanic eruption occurs, all the center of Cayambe would be at risk. As the map shows, the
principal risks would be pyroclastic flows, lahars, and ash falls. In addition, some studies
made by Instituto Geofsico identify three rivers that could be a biggest hazard because those
ones would be channels for lahars. The rivers are Guachal, Granobles, Blanco and Pisque,
all the surrounding areas such as La Remonta, 23 de Julio, La Florida 1 and Santa Laura de
Guachal have the greatest danger. It is a big problem because in these neighborhoods live
approximately 6 000 people. There, there are parks, bridges and houses that are located in
the river bank.
Fig 7. Map of principal transportation routes in Cayambe. Pictures taken from google maps.
On the other hand the majority of the transports come from Quito and Ibarra. Now, talking
about which are the routes that would be the most affected, it is important to mention Buses
to Oyacachi that is a route inside the city, and La Esperanza and 24 de Junio Olmedo that
leave from Ibarra. Those transportation routes would be in serious problems because the
routes are in the area of greatest danger (fig 5.).
7. Prevention systems
Cayambe does not have a strong contingency plan, but since December 2016 authorities
started to worry about a possible volcanic eruption, so at the moment the SGR (Secretara de
Gestin de Riesgos), MSc. Eloy Basantes Director of Zonal 9 together with the Ministry of
Public Health, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Transport and Public Works, the
National Telecommunications Corporation (CNT), the Armed Forces, National Police,
Firefighters Cayambe, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Aquaculture and Fisheries
(MAGAP), Local Authorities have designed a contingency plan that contains all the
following points:
Access and distribution of quality water
Health services, sanitation and hygiene
Infrastructure
Provision of comprehensive care to the population
Integral security of the population
Productivity and livelihoods
Education, culture, heritage and environment
Strategic sectors
SUSPENTION
OF WORK
TYPE OF MEETING
EMERGENCY EVACUATION POINT
ALARM
RESUME OF
ACTION
SUSPENSION OF
WORK
ENERGY AND
GAS SUPPLY
COMMUNICATION
WITH THE
ORGANISMS OF
HELP
7.5. Description of evacuation routes
The route of evacuation is signposted according to the NTE INEN ISO 3864 1 with the
following signaling:
8. Current information
8.1. Priority
The priority is to reach directly to the areas that have been identified with some degree of
vulnerability in case of an eventual eruption of the volcano.
Unfortunately, people in Cayambe are not well informed, and they do not know yet what the
secure zones are or which the contingency plan is.
8.2. Survey
The Cayambe volcano is monitored to date with three seismographs to detect internal
overpressures and fluid movement; A GPS and inclinometers with the purpose of detecting
the deformation (swelling or deflation) in the flanks, which is related to the entrance or
expulsion of magma.
Fig 8. Map of the seismographs, inclinometer and GPS location. Taken from IGEPN
8.3. Situation of the Volcano
9. List of References
Green, S. (April, 2016). Facts About Volcn Cayambe in Ecuador. Retrieved from:
https://www.thoughtco.com/facts-about-volcan-cayambe-in-ecuador-755911
Samaniego, P., Monzier, M., Robin, C., & Hall, M. L. (1998). Late Holocene eruptive
activity at Nevado Cayambe Volcano, Ecuador. Bulletin of Volcanology, 59(7), 451-459.
Retrieved from: http://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exldoc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fd
i_51-52/010015230.pdf
Instituto Geofsico EPN. (2017). Cayambe. Retrieved from:
http://www.igepn.edu.ec/cayambe
USGS. (2016). Lava flows destroy everything in their path. Retrieved from:
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/lava_flows.html
Universidad Tcnica del Norte. (No date). Trabajo de Investigacin. Retrieved from:
http://repositorio.utn.edu.ec/bitstream/123456789/507/2/02%20ICO%20171%20TESIS.pdf
SGR. (2016). GAD Cayambe fortalece el Plan de Contingencia por volcn Cayambe.
Retrieved from: http://www.gestionderiesgos.gob.ec/gad-cayambe-fortalece-el-plan-de-
contingencia-por-volcan-cayambe/
Ministerio del Interior. (2016). Cayambe cuenta con una nueva y remodelada Unidad de
Polica Comunitaria. Retrieved from: http://www.ministeriointerior.gob.ec/cayambe-cuenta-
con-una-nueva-y-remodelada-unidad-de-policia-comunitaria/
El Universo. (2015). Se inici instalacin de sirenas electrnicas para poblaciones cercanas
a volcanes. Retrieved from:
http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2015/11/16/nota/5245377/se-inicio-instalacion-sirenas-
electronicas-poblaciones-cercanas