Simulation on Reliability Problem

Exercise-3: A large milling machine has three different

bearings that fall in service. The cumulative distribution function of
the life of each bearing is identical as shown in the table. When a
bearing fails, the mills stops, a repairperson is called, and a new
bearing is installed. The delay time of the repairpersons arriving
at the milling machine is also a random variable, with the
distribution given in table 2. Downtime for the mill is estimated at
$5 per minute. The direct on site cost of the repairperson is $15
per hour. It takes 20 minutes to change one bearing, 30 minutes
to change two bearings, and 40 minutes to change three
bearings. The bearings cost $16 each. A proposal has been made
to replace all three bearings whenever a bearing fails.
Management needs an evaluation of this proposal.
Random Digit Assignment For Bearing Life

Bearing life Probability Cumulative Random Digit

(Hours) Probability Assignment
1000 0.10 0.10 01-10
1100 0.13 0.23 11-23
1200 0.25 0.48 24-48
1300 0.13 0.61 49-61
1400 0.09 0.70 62-70
1500 0.12 0.82 71-82
1600 0.02 0.84 83-84
1700 0.06 0.90 85-90
1800 0.05 0.95 91-95
1900 0.05 1.00 96-00
Random digit assignment for Delay Time

Delay Probability Cumulative Random

Time Probability Digit
(Minutes) Assignment

5 0.6 0.6 1-6

10 0.3 0.9 7-9

15 0.1 1.0 0
Assumption
Simulate the problem for 20000 hours of operation. It will
be assumed in this problem that the times are never
exactly the same and thus no more than 1 bearing is
changed at any breakdown. 16 bearings changes were
made for bearings 1 and 2 but only 14 bearings were
required for bearing 3.
 Bearing1
Bearing RD for Life Accum RD for Delay
Time
No life (hours) ulated delay (Minutes)
Life time
(hours)
1 67 1400 1400 2 5
2 08 1000 2400 3 5
3 49 1300 3700 1 5
4 84 1600 5300 7 10
5 44 1200 6500 8 10
6 30 1200 7700 1 5
7 10 1000 8700 2 5
8 63 1400 10100 8 10
9 02 1000 11100 3 5
10 02 1000 12100 8 10
11 77 1500 13600 7 10
12 59 1300 14900 5 5
13 23 1100 16000 5 5
14 53 1300 17300 6 10
15 85 1700 19000 6 5
16 75 1500 20500 4 5
 Bearing2
Bearing No RD Life (hours) Accumulated RD Delay Time
(Minutes)
Life (hours)

1 70 1500 1500 0 15
2 43 1200 2700 7 10
3 86 1700 4400 3 5
4 93 1800 6200 1 5
5 81 1600 7800 2 5
6 44 1200 9000 8 10
7 19 1100 10100 1 5
8 51 1300 11400 1 5
9 45 1300 12700 7 10
10 12 1100 13800 8 5
11 48 1300 15100 0 15
12 09 1000 16100 8 10

13 44 1200 17300 1 5

14 46 1200 18500 2 10

15 40 1200 19700 8 5

16 52 1300 21000 5 5
 Bearing3
Bearing No RD Life (hours) Accumulated RD Delay Time
(Minutes)
Life (hours)

1 76 1500 1500 0 15
2 65 1400 2900 2 5
3 61 1400 4300 7 10
4 96 1900 6200 1 5
5 65 1400 7600 3 5
6 56 1300 8900 3 5
7 11 1100 10000 6 5
8 86 1700 11700 3 5
9 57 1300 13000 1 5
10 49 1300 14300 4 5
11 36 1200 15500 8 10
12 44 1200 16700 2 5

13 94 1800 18500 1 5

14 78 1500 20000 7 10
Total Cost
Cost of Bearings=46*$16=$736
Cost of Delay
Time=(110+125+95)*$5=$1650
Cost of Downtime during Repair=46*20
min/bearing*5/min=$4600
Cost of Repairperson=46bearing*20
min/bearing*$15/60 min=$230
Total
Cost=$(736+1650+4600+230)=$7216
Chang B1 B2 B3 First Accumul RD Delay
e No life(ho life(hours) life(hour Failure ated Life Time
urs) s) (min)

1 1400 1500 1500 1400 1400 3 5

2 1000 1200 1400 1000 2400 7 10
3 1300 1700 1400 1300 3700 5 5
4 1600 1800 1900 1600 5300 1 5
5 1200 1600 1400 1200 6500 4 5
6 1200 1200 1300 1200 7700 3 5
7 1000 1100 1100 1000 8700 7 10
8 1400 1300 1700 1300 10000 8 10
9 1000 1300 1300 1000 11000 8 10
10 1000 1000 1300 1000 12000 3 5
Chang B1 B2 B3 First Accumu RD Delay
e No life(ho life(hours) life(hour Failure lated Time
urs) s) Life (min)

11 1500 1300 1200 1200 13200 2 5

12 1300 1000 1200 1000 14200 4 5
13 1100 1200 1800 1100 15300 1 5
14 1300 1200 1500 1200 16500 6 5
15 1700 1200 63/1400 1200 17700 2 5
16 1500 1300 21/1100 1100 18800 7 10
17 85/ 53/1300 23/1100 1100 19900 0 15
1700
18 05/ 29/1200 51/1300 1000 20900 5 5
1000
Total Cost

Cost of Bearings=3*18*$16=$864
Cost of Delay Time=(125)*$5=$625
Cost of Downtime during Repair=18
sets*40 min/set*$5/min=$3600
Cost of Repairperson=18 sets*40
min/sets*$15/60 min=$180
Total cost=$(864+625+3600+180)=$5269