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QBS Assignment 5

r06741024

[Question1]
(a) Log-GDP ~ Ruggedness, Africa, Rugged*Africa

(full data)

(data without Seychelles)

We can see that out of Africa, the effect of ruggedness remains negative, the
coefficients are -0.20 both with and without Seychelles data.
In Africa, the effect of ruggedness is 0.19 (br + bra) based on full data, and the
other is 0.10 based on data without Seychelles.
(b) Plot Results

From the plot we can see both with and without Seychelles data, the results are
almost the same.

With
Seychelles

Without
Seychelles

From the plot we can see with Seychelles data, the slope is larger. Without
Seychelles data, the relationship remains upward sloping, but decreasing in slope. By
how much is answered in (a).
(c) WAIC Results

From the view of WAIC, Model 3 is the best model with large weight (= 0.8)
compared with the other. It means the effect of ruggedness does highly depend upon
continents.

Fitted model

WAIC average
model

From the plots, fitted model and WAIC average are very close, so the inference is
quite the same as of (b).
[Question2]
(a) Log-Languages per capita ~ mean of growing season length, Area

(b) Log-Languages per capita ~ SD of growing season length, Area

(c) Log-Languages per capita ~ mean of growing season length, SD of


growing season length, Interaction of mean and SD, Area

Compare models with WAIC

To conclude:
1) In Model 1 and Model 2, the coefficients of area are -0.20, -0.24, but they drops
to -0.01 (close to 0) in Model 3.
2) In Model 1, production shows a positive relationship (b1 = 0.14).
3) In Model 2, uncertainty in harvest shows a negative relationship (b2 = -0.21).
4) Based on WAIC, Model 3 is the best model compared with the other.
5) In Model 3, we can see the effect of production still exhibits a positive
relationship but uncertainty in harvest changes from negative to positive, so I
combine uncertainty in harvest and interaction term together to measure the
effect.
When production at a very low level (way below 3.9) the effect of uncertainty
in harvest would be a positive relationship, because something is better than
nothing. When production at a higher level, the effect of uncertainty in harvest
becomes negative. Maybe it is because people were vulnerable with sufficient
food. When they met changes, they gathered together searching for warmth.

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