Philippine Climate Outlook

by

Lourdes V. Tibig

Presented at the Communities for Resilience: Convergence Forum for Davao, Cagayan de
Oro, Buayan and Tagoloan River Basins in Cagayan de Oro City on June 8-9, 2016
Member, NPTE, CCC
 What this presentation hopes to
achieve:
This presentation aims to provide a basic
understanding of
-climate change and disaster risks in the
Philippine setting; and
-an overview of trends and projections of
what is likely in terms of rainfall,
temperature, temperature extremes
and tropical cyclone occurrence in the next
6 months.
 81st NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
11 MAY 2016, AMIHAN CONFERENCE ROOM-PAGASA

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(MAY OCTOBER 2016)

Prepared by:
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST, Quezon City

Updated: 11 MAY 2016

GLOBAL ADVISORIES
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION
CENTERS
CPC/ International Research
Institute (IRI)
As of : 9 May 2016
Bureau of Meteorology
(BOM)-Australia
As of : 10 May 2016
Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -
Japan
As of : 11 April 2016
APEC Climate Center,
Busan, S. Korea
As of : 25 April 2016
El Nio in decaying stage. ENSO-neutral conditions likely during May-June-July season.
SUMMARY
A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere
spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Nia
during the second half of the year.
El Nio drawing closer to an end.
All international models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue
to cool, with seven of eight models exceeding La Nia thresholds by
September 2016. However, individual model outlooks show a large
spread between neutral and La Nia scenarios.
It is likely that El Nio event will end before early summer.
Thereafter, it is more likely that La Nia conditions will develop in the
Northern Hemisphere summer than that ENSO neutral conditions will
continue.
For May-Oct 2016, further decaying of El Nio with transition to the La-
Nina-type conditions in the second half of forecast period.
The forecasts for MJJ 2016 shows positive temperature anomalies to
prevail over the globe, with highly probable above normal rainfalls in
the central equatorial Pacific and below normal precipitation in
Indochina and the Philippines. The forecasts for ASO 2016 suggest
further enhancement of equatorial Pacific cooling and associated
negative precipitation anomalies.
 What the different international
climate centers say:
All 4 international prediction centers
[International Research Institute (IRI), Australia
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Tokyo Climate Center
(JMA Japan) and APEC Climate Center]
indicate that:
the El Nino is now in its decaying stage;
ENSO-neutral conditions likely during May-June-
July season; and
increasing chance of La Nina in the second half
of the year
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(MAY OCTOBER 2016)

Updated:
MAY 10, 2016
 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
(MAY OCTOBER 2016)

MAY JULY 2016 AUG OCT 2016

Transition towards Southwest (SW) SW monsoon
monsoon (MAY) Local thunderstorms
Local thunderstorms ITCZ
Easterly wave Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Ridge of High Pressure Area
Low Pressure Areas (LPAs) Tropical Cyclones
Ridge of High Pressure Area Transition towards Northeast (NE)
Tropical Cyclones monsoon (OCTOBER)
Forecast Updates (Rainfall, Temperature, dry days, TC)
About PAGASAs rainfall maps
For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) June 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) July 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) August 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) September 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
 Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Normal (mm) October 2016
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal
RAINFALL FORECAST PER PROVINCE IN % OF NORMAL (MAY OCTOBER 2016)
FORECAST RAINFALL per Region in (mm) and (%N)
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and
Lakes in (mm) and (%N)

way below
normalnormal
below
near normal
above normal
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
MAY - JULY 2016

way below
normalnormal
below
near normal
above normal
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
AUGUST OCTOBER 2016

way below
normalnormal
below
near normal
above normal
WET DAY FORECAST

WET DAY a day

with > 1 mm of
rainfall
 Number of Wet Days per Region
REGION MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
CAR 6-20 6-20 11-25 6-20 11-25 16-25
NCR 6-10 11-20 15-20 6-15 11-20 11-20
Region 1 6-20 6-20 11-25 6-15 11-25 16-31
Region 2 6-15 6-20 11-25 6-25 11-25 16-25
Region 3 6-15 11-20 11-25 6-20 11-20 11-25
Region 4-A 6-15 11-20 6-25 6-20 11-20 6-25
Region 4-B 6-10 11-20 11-20 6-20 11-25 11-25
Region 5 1-15 11-20 11-20 16-25 11-20 11-20
Region 6 6-15 11-20 11-20 16-20 11-20 11-20
Region 7 1-10 6-15 11-20 16-25 11-25 16-20
Region 8 1-15 6-15 11-20 16-25 11-25 11-20
Region 9 6-15 11-20 11-15 16-20 16-25 11-20
Region 10 1-15 11-20 16-25 11-20 11-20 11-20
Region 11 6-15 6-20 11-20 11-25 11-25 11-31
Region 12 6-15 11-20 11-20 11-25 11-25 11-20
CARAGA 1-15 11-20 16-25 11-20 11-20 11-20
NIR 1-15 11-20 16-25 16-25 11-20 11-20
ARMM 1-15 6-20 6-20 11-25 15-30 11-25
DRY CONDITION/DRY SPELL/
DROUGHT OUTLOOK

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF JUNE 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (5)
LUZON (5) CAVITE, RIZAL, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE,
CATANDUANES
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (12)

LUZON (9) AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS,
MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON,
ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (2) NORTHERN SAMAR, SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (1) DAVAO ORIENTAL

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (28)

LUZON (8) BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
ZAMBALES, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN,
MASBATE
VISAYAS (12) AKLAN, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN,
EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, SAMAR (WESTERN
SAMAR)
MINDANAO (8) CAMIGUIN, DAVAO DEL SUR, SOUTH COTABATO,
35% of the country will likely NORTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SURIGAO DEL
experience Drought (28 NORTE, SULU, TAWI-TAWI
provinces)
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF JULY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (0)
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (3)
LUZON(3) CAVITE, METRO MANILA, RIZAL
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (14)
LUZON (7) BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES,
BATANGAS, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN
VISAYAS (1) SIQUIJOR

MINDANAO (6) DAVAO DEL SUR, SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH

COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULU, TAWI-TAWI

17% of the country will likely

experience Drought (14 provinces)
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF AUGUST 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (1)
LUZON (1) CAGAYAN
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (1)
LUZON (1) CAVITE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (6)
LUZON (2) BATANGAS, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO

VISAYAS (1) SIQUIJOR

MINDANAO (3) NORTH COTABATO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI

7% of the country will likely

experience Drought (6 provinces)
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF SEPTEMBER 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (1)
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO(1) MAGUINDANAO
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (0)
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (2)
LUZON NONE

VISAYAS (1) SIQUIJOR

MINDANAO (1) NORTH COTABATO

2% of the country will likely experience

Drought (2 provinces)
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF OCTOBER 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (0)
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (0)

LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (0)

LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE
Tropical Cyclone Forecast
MONTH Number of TC
MAY 2016 0 or 1
JUN 2016 0 or 1
JULY 2016 1 to 3
AUGUST 2016 2 to 4
SEPTEMBER 2016 2 to 4
OCTOBER 2016 2 to 4
 Monthly frequency of TCs entering PAR and TCs
making landfall (1951-2013)
Month No of landfalling No of non- Average
TCs landfalling TCs
January 12 14 0.4
February 7 13 0.3
March 10 9 0.3
April 18 11 0.45
May 31 34 1.0
June 50 50 1.5
July 80 126 3.27
August 65 138 3.22
September 78 111 3.0
October 71 88 2.5
Tropical cyclones in the PAR: trends
average of 19.4 enter the PAR and 9 cross the
country every year;
no significant trends in the annual no of TCs in
PAR, but a slightly decreasing trend in the no of
landfalling TCs in the country (last 2 decades);
fewer typhoons (>118kph), but more extreme TCs
(>150kph) have affected the country; and

A recent analysis indicate the impact of TCs

shows a consistently increasing trend in economic
losses and damages (Cinco et al, 2016)
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)

May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 31.5 42.3 30.7 39.9 32.0 39.4 31.5 37.5 30.8 40.4 29.6 36.2
Lowlands Luzon 30.7 40.8 29.7 124.4 29.4 42.6 28.5 36.9 29.0 39.9 29.2 37.7
Mountainous Luzon 26.7 30.0 24.7 29.7 25.4 28.0 25.4 27.7 24.6 28.0 25.1 27.0
Metro Manila 36.0 38.5 33.4 37.6 34.8 36.4 32.4 35.1 32.0 36.2 32.7 38.1
Lowlands Visayas 32.9 39.7 32.3 40.0 32.7 36.7 32.6 37.1 31.5 38.4 31.8 39.6
Lowlands Mindanao 33.2 39.7 32.8 38.5 32.9 36.4 32.8 35.9 31.6 38.5 32.0 36.1
Mountainous Mindanao 33.5 36.8 32.4 34.7 31.9 33.2 31.5 33.2 32.0 34.5 32.0 33.7

May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 20.2 26.8 19.4 24.3 18.0 26.6 18.4 25.7 20.0 24.5 16.4 25.7
Lowlands Luzon 18.2 27.5 10.8 27.0 15.4 25.9 17.8 25.4 16.9 25.0 18.5 25.4
Mountainous Luzon 15.0 15.7 14.9 15.8 14.7 15.4 14.8 15.6 13.0 16.2 14.0 15.6
Metro Manila 22.9 25.1 22.5 25.2 18.2 25.8 21.3 24.4 22.2 25.2 21.7 25.0
Lowlands Visayas 20.0 25.8 20.2 25.6 20.0 25.7 20.1 25.6 20.1 25.3 20.0 26.3
Lowlands Mindanao 19.1 25.0 19.6 24.7 -20.3 24.7 17.4 24.5 18.9 25.0 17.6 24.5
Mountainous Mindanao 16.1 18.7 17.0 18.5 16.0 18.2 15.1 18.0 14.9 18.0 17.5 19.4
 Key points
The current El Nio event is in its decaying stage,
returning to ENSO-neutral condition by mid-
2016;
The possibility of a developing La Nia is favored
towards the end of the year;
Warmer than average temperatures are
expected during the next 6 month-period; and
Seven to twelve tropical cyclones may
develop/enter the PAR from May October
2016.
E-mail address: lourdes_1344@yahoo.com