PopDev 101

What is PopDev?

Nimfa B. Ogena
UP Population Institute
 When you first heard of
“PopDev,” what was the first
thing that came to your mind?
Perspectives on Population and
Economic development
 Population growth promotes economic
development
(Slow to moderate population growth
promotes economic development)
 Population growth impedes economic
development
(Rapid population growth, of already large
populations, impedes economic development)
 Population growth is not related to economic
development.
(Population growth is only one of many factors
that affect economic development)
 Association Between Average Annual World
Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita
Growth Rates, 1975-2004

8
Growth Rates in Population
7

0
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
-1

Growth Rate in GDP per

Capita
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

4
 Association Between Fertility and
Education
Percent of Girls Enrolled
in Secondary School

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total Fertility Rate

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

5
 Association Between Fertility and Poverty
Percent of Population
Living on <$2 per Day
100

80

60

40

20

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total Fertility Rate

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

6
What is the population of the
Philippines as of
August 1, 2007?

88,574,614
 Population Distribution
Population of the Philippines by Regions: 2007

14
11.6 11.7
12
9.7
10
in Millions

8 6.8 6.4
6 5.1
4.5 4 4.2 4.1
3.9 3.8
4 3.1 3.2
2.6 2.3
2 1.5

0
R

L
S

EN

M
PA

AO

O
N

A
O

A
C

ZO

AG
ZO

AS

VA
UL
S
C
N

EY
C

G
YA

AN
YA

AR
BI
LU
O

AR

AY

R
NS

DA
AR

AR
LL

SA
IL

SA

SA
D
IS
IM
VA

NI

IN
AL

AB

C
VI

VI
.V

SK
M

PE

.M
TR

C.

E.
AL
AN

C
N
BO

C
EN

C
AY

SO
M
C
G

ZA
CA

Source: NSO. 2007 Census of Population and Housing

Source: NSO. Retrieved 12/19/09 from http://www.census.gov.ph/
 POPDEV Framework
Macro Level
Population Variables Development Factors

Population Size
Infrastructure
Age-Sex Structure
Social Services
Spatial Distribution
Economic Development
Governance and Development
Fertility Administration
Mortality Environmental Development
Migration and Preservation
Current Population Issues

 Rapid increase in population size with

slow decline in fertility
 The Philippine population size is expected to
continue growing despite the projected decline
in population growth rate

Actual and Projected Population with Annual Average Growth Rate:

160.0 PGR
Philippines, 1970-2040 3.0

(right axis)
2.78 141.7
2.71
140.0 135.3
128.1 2.5
2.35 120.2
120.0 2.32 2.36
111.8

Population Growth Rate (in percent)

2.05 103.0 2.0
1.94
100.0 94.0
Population (in millions)

1.81
85.3
1.63
80.0 76.9 1.5
1.44
68.6
60.7 1.26
60.0 1.09
48.1 1.0
42.1 0.92
40.0 36.7

0.5
20.0

0.0 0.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Note: Data after 2000 are Population Projections (Medium Assumption, NRR=1 by 2040)
Source: Population census data in various years and official population projections Available from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_popn.asp (accessed 13
March 2006) as cited in Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
Current Population Issues

 Rapid increase in population size with

slow decline in fertility
 Age structural Shift: Still a relatively
young population but with rapid
population ageing and growing
singlehood
The large youth population is expected to continue to
2040, but the working-age population and the
number of senior citizens would increase much faster

100.0
88.1 m
90.0 (63%)
80.0

70.0
Population (in millions)

60.0

50.0

40.0 32.2 m
30.0 (24%)
20.0 20.8 m
10.0
(14%)
0.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0-14 15-64 60+

Projected Age Distribution Philippines, 2000-2040 (Medium Series)

Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
 The nearly fourfold increase of the ageing index
by the end of the projection period means that
by 2040 there will be almost two persons
aged 60 or over for every three children
under 15 years in the Philippines.
70.00

60.00
Actual
Ageing
50.00
Index
Projected
40.00
Ageing
Index
30.00 Potential
S upport
20.00 Ratio

10.00

0.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Actual and Projected Ageing Index and Potential Support Ratio:

Philippines, 1970-2004
Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
Current Population Issues

 Rapid increase in population size with

slow decline in fertility
 Age structural Shift: Still a relatively
young population but with rapid
population ageing and growing
singlehood
 Massive flow of Filipinos to foreign
countries
 Increasing Filipinos overseas, with use of
irregular channels on the decline (?)
Stock of
Filipinos 4
Overseas: 3.5
8.08 million 3

Population (in millions)

(2004)
2.5

2
Average
Annual 1.5

Deployment 1
of OFWs: 0.5
897 thousand 0
(2000-2005) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In PERMANENT TEMPORARY IRREGULAR

The 21st Century? A Conference On The
Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
Stock of Overseas Filipinos, 1997-2005
Current Development Issues

 Poor education access and quality

 Declining primary education access
indicators, 2000-2005

140

120

100
Percentage

80 2000
2001
60 2002
2003
40
2004
20 2005

-
GER NER GIR NIR

Indicators

Source: DepEd BEIS as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of MDG2
Fluctuating CSR and CR and
worsening repetition and drop-out
situation
Cohort
School Completion Drop-out Repetitio
Survival
Year Rate Rate n Rate
Rate
2001- 1.95
2002 75.90 74.94 5.75
2002- 2.08
2003 72.44 71.55 6.69
2003- 2.18
2004 71.84 70.24 6.89
2004- 2.24
2005 71.32 69.06 6.98
2005- 2.89
2006 69.90 67.99 7.36
Source: DepED Basic Education Information System (BEIS) as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of
MDG2
Typical Progression of a Sample Cohort of
Pupil

100
66
58
43
23
14

Grade 1 Grade 6 1st Year 4th Year College 1st College

Grad. Grad. Year Degree
Grad.

Source: Department of Education as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of MDG2
Current Development Issues

 Poor education access and quality

 Low education and health budget and
expenditures
 Poverty and Malnutrition
 Trends in Poverty
Trends in GNP incidence
and GDP 60

50 Rural
15.0

40
10.0
Philippines
30

%
28.4%
5.0
Urban
20

0.0

10

-5.0
0
GNP GDP 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
-10.0

Source: Reyes 2003

-15.0
1978

1980
1970

1972

1974

1976

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine

Source: Templo 2003 Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
 Per Capita Income and Nutrition, 2003
Per capita income
45000 40.0
% Underweight Children (0 - 5 years old)

40000 35.0

35000 30.0
30000
25.0

in percent
25000
in pesos

20.0
20000
15.0
15000

10000 10.0

5000 5.0

0 0.0
R

M
s

as
on

as

no

l
a
y
n

co
co
C

lle

ya

M
ag
zo

ay

ay
uz

da
N

Bi
Ilo

R
Va
Lu

sa

ar
is
.L

is

in

A
C
Vi
.V

.V
S.

.M
an
C

E.
W

C
ay

W
ag
C

Balisacan, A (2005) as cited in Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
 Malnutrition among children by
%
household income, 2003
60 Income
quintile
From Barba (2007) Dual
1Q Malnutrition: the
Philippine Case.
50 Philippine Population
2Q Association National
Conference, July 28,
3Q 2007, Cebu City

40 4Q
5Q

30

20
Mean per capita
income: P22,277
10 1Q = P5,973.55
5Q = P57,573.83
0
0–5y Underweight 6 – 10 y
 Malnutrition among children by
%
household income, 2003
7

60 Income 6
6.5
quintile 5

1Q 4

50 3
2Q 1.8
2
3Q 0.7 0.7
1 0.4
40 4Q 0

5Q Overweight-for-height (0 - 5y)
30
Mean per capita
income: P22,277
20
1Q = P5,973.55
5Q = P57,573.83
10 From Barba (2007) Dual
Malnutrition: the
Philippine Case.
Philippine Population
Association National
0 Conference, July 28,

0–5y Underweight 6 – 10 y 2007, Cebu City

 Double burden of malnutrition
undernutrition in children and overweight among adults

40

30

20

From Barba (2007) Dual

Malnutrition: the
10 Philippine Case.
Philippine Population
Association National
Conference, July 28,
2007, Cebu City
0
Stunting Overweight males Overweight females
 Double burden
Persistent undernutrition
and micronutrient
deficiencies among
children and vulnerable
groups,

along with rising overweight,

obesity and diet- and
lifestyle-related NCDs in
adults.
From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
Coexistence of underweight child and
overweight adult in same household

20.9 %

From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine

Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
Current Development Issues

 Poor education access and quality

 Low education and health budget and
expenditures
 Poverty and Malnutrition
 Peace and Human Security
“… human security
is the external
precondition for
human
development…”

(Philippine Human
Development Report
2005, p. 2)
Human Insecurity Indicators

Source: Philippine Human Development Report 2005, p. 60

Current Development Issues

 Poor education access and quality

 Low education and health budget and
expenditures
 Poverty and Malnutrition
 Peace and Human Security
 Environmental degradation and
resource depletion
Most Populous Countries, 2009 and 2050

Source: PRB. 2009 World Populaion Data Sheet

How is this related to YOU?
Population = people
 POPDEV Framework
Micro Level
Population Variables Development Factors

Quality Basic Education for All

Manageable Family Size
Expanded Productive Capacity
Gender Equity and Women
Empowerment
Delay Entry to Marital Union
Better Maternal and Increased Labor Force
Child Health Participation
Protection and Safety Increased Income
of Migrants
Environmental Development
and Preservation
Policy on Population

Couples have the responsibility to

decide how many children to have in
accordance with their religious beliefs
and the demands of responsible
parenthood for sustainable
development
(Article XV Section 3.1 and Article II, Declaration of Principles and
State Policies, Sections 9, 12, 14, 15 and 16 of the 1987 Constitution
of the 1987 Constitution as cited in the PPMP Directional Plan 2001-
2004)
 Principle of Human Agency

Individuals
construct their own
life course through
the choices and
actions they take
within the
opportunities and
constraints of
history and social
circumstances.
Therefore

We need to

EMPOWER

people to enable them to

help themselves achieve what they want

Our Challenge

How do we ensure that

Filipinos are empowered to
make the right decisions
toward their desired goals?