; d\\;\

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@ Z@b@n@a@a@
@aa@pba@n@ OLS@ba@a@pbia@@bna
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Npba@bjna
Npa7na@i@a@bjma@pb@m
@LEViews@ anbi@ a@ pba@ bjna@ aa@ x@ m
@ N@@pajm@aug

;
@i@LY@ibna@7na@@ja@aa@@ana@@sbra@a@@bm
@@ja@aa@@ana@@a@ka@c@g@NX@ya@n@7n@@a
@Y@@ X@7qdm@@y@pbubnna@g@na@au@ka@@c@@=vna@a
@ Nnibq@a@aa@i@bi@

@ a@b@|n@@ a@aa@pbjq@ @@7j@ib@ @na@aa@

@@ a@ N@ oa@ @ ibna@ 7na@ @ qm@ >a@ a@ aa@ @ a@
@7@ pbbi@ ana@ b@ n@ b@ ba@ qc@ m@ Lbna@ pba@ bjn
@pa7na@ @ 7ra@ knm@ na@ aa@ xb@ @ non-experimental@
@aa@ @ b@ @ >a@ pba@ @ jja@ a@ wnn@ La@ pa@ 7na
N@ja

@7m@q@@LY@7na@@@bu@na@pa7na@bg@m@Lba@j i
@jn@c@xb@ bj@na@ aa@ @ ana@@ Lbnbi@LY@ @pbna
@ Nibna@7nbi

@x@ @ Lpba@ @ b@ a @ n@ c@ Lna@ aa@ zn@ bg@

@L@b@Nba@@@ya@7m@7n@@ya@a@n@ja@aa
@ Nja@aa@@rc@@b@|n@na@aa@x@h

@na@aa@x@pb@m@@Lna@aa@x@HQMTI@ a@ @
@La@pba@c@5n@HRMTI@ a@@ Lba@a@pbia@@anbi
@La@ba@a@5n@HTMTI@a@ @Lzna@b@k@HSMTI@ a@
@@pba@n@HVMTI@ a@@La@bjma@pb@HUMTI@a@@
@ Njna@pb@@a@ba@an@HWMTI@a@@Lna

@bna@ @ =vna@ zna@ @ b! ana@ ra@ a@ a@ @ na@ aa@ x

@%b@n@ba@a@pbia@@nm@L rbi@Na@bnua@a
@ Nna@aa@x

@7m@ 7n@ @ @ a@ @ ibna@ 7na@ @ Lja@ a@ aa@ x@

@a@bra@L7na@pa7na@@b@#@@na@ a@aa@x@@bc@Lya
@@n@ M@a7na@c@s,y@[a@@a7na@a@@,a@@@n
 |

@b@bI@jua@0a@na@@ba@n@ @ GDP@b"a@0a@wmba
@Hoibq@yI@ @7m@7n@n@xa@h@a@LHRER@a@a@i
@ Zbna@za@@kn

@ Imports = E(imports ) + e = 1 + 2GDP + 3 RER + e

@xa@ a@ n@ EViews@ n@
@g@ bg@ L@ @ pajm@ aug
@,aI@,a@na@paa@ja@xa@
@6a@ bjna@ @ bjna
@,,@,,ba@pan,,a@,,@k,,y@tr@H,,ya
@ba@ aa@ Covariance
@ Z@b@wa@n@|ua@a@Lm@a
@ra@ pa6@ lby@ Standard error
tr = 0 + 1 m + 2 wa + e @ N7n@@pba@bjna

@ _e@bn@@>a@a@aa@@b @

; i;3i;s;;HLHO

@ba@y@@na@ aa@@ana@@b@ja@ra@i@@cj
Nja@aa@@@by@@@>a

@@n@ibm@ 7n@ Y@i@a@pb@bjn@na@aa@@ana@n

@ a@aa@x@pa7n@ibn@@Njna@ X@ na@pa7na@@rc@c@qa
Z@b@n@7n

@ Yi =b 0 +b1 X 1i + b2 X 2i + ei 4.1

@@u@@6@Lja@aa@x@@bb6a@>a@pba6a@n@bg
@ NX@@i@@

@@ ni@ HQMTI@ ba@ @ HOLSI@ ba@ a@ pbia@ pb@ m@ n

@ Zaja@pbi
 |

e = (Y - Y ) = (Y - b
2
i i i
2
i 0 - b1 X1i - b2 X 2i ) 2

@ Zbna@qra@ba@pba@@a

@ Y = nb + b X + b X
i 0 1 1i 2 2i 4.2
@ X Y = b X + b X + b X X
1i i 0 1i 1
2
1i 2 1i 2i 4.3
@ X Y = b X + b X X + b X
2i i 0 2i 1 1i 2i 2
2
2i 4.4

@@L b2 @ @ b1 @ ,@Ha@ @aa@ @ @b@5@bI@ be@by@@>a

@ Z

@
b1 =
( x1 y ) ( x ) - ( x y )( x x )
2
2 2 1 2
4.5
( x )( x ) - ( x x )
2
1
2
2 1 2
2

@
b2 =
( x y ) ( x ) - ( x y )( x x )
2
2
1 1 1 2
4.6
( x )( x ) - ( x x )
2
1
2
2 1 2
2

@ b0 = Y - b1 X 1 - b2 X 2 4.7

@!bb@ b2 @m@Noibq@ X 2 @bi@@ X1 @@y@n@ Y@@7na@ b1 @ba@

@ Na@aa@pb@ b2 @@ b1 @m@Lj@b@
@

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@|@Lna@pa7na@@qa@@n@uby@u@@na@aa@b@
@kna@@,@@L,ua@br@@NY@@qm@@ai@na@aa@
@aa@ pa7na@ La@ b@ Lba@ a@ kyb@ @ a@ pa@ L?a
@m@ pa7n@ @ @ La@ @ br@ @ Na@ m@ c@ ba@ @ r@ ny
@ Na@vy@La@

@Hna@ aa@ x@ bc@ I@ ba@ na@ a@ aa@ x@ ibn@

@ Z@b@nv
 |

@ Y = b0 +b1 X1 + b2 X 2 + b3 X 3 + ... + bk X k + e 4.8

@NNN@LX2@l@ jma@a@@ b2 @L@ X1@l@ jma@a@@ b1 @L a@@ b0 @sy

@k+1@ @ n@ HXMTI@ ba@ h@ Lya@ @ n@ 7n@ k@ b@ @ Na
@ a@7@ @pba@g@bbyc@7@@Lana@ a@NH@7I@
@ Na@pb
@

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@a@paja@ X1 @8a@@n@pb@ana@@wmba@Y@yaa@&@a@a@
MTI@@LHVMTI@LHUMTI@ba@anbi@LRPPY@g@RPPP@6a@@yaa@&@@b@L X 2
@ Z@@LHW

b1 =
( x y ) ( x ) - ( x y )( x x )
1
2
2 2 1 2

( x )( x ) - ( x x )
2
1
2
2 1 2
2

=
(956 ) (504 ) - (900 ) (524 ) @ 0.65
(576 ) (504 ) - (524 ) 2

b2 =
( x y ) ( x ) - ( x y )( x x )
2
2
1 1 1 2

( x )( x ) - ( x x )
2
1
2
2 1 2
2

=
(900 ) (576 ) - (956 ) (524 ) @ 1.11
(576 ) (504 ) - (524 ) 2
b0 = Y - b1 X 1 - b2 X 2 @ 57 - (0.65 ) (18 ) - (1.11 ) (12 ) @ 31 .98

@n@pa7n@qri@aa@pb@n@L Yi = 31 .98 + 0.65 X 1i + 1.11 X 2i @h@i

@ Npba@ana@n@rc@c@H7mI

@
 pba@lb@a@paja@8a@anbi@a@xbng@pbbi@ana@QMT@@u
year Y X1 X2 y x1 x2 x 1y x2y x1x2 x12 x22
2000 40 6 4 -17 -12 -8 204 136 96 144 64
2001 44 10 4 -13 -8 -8 104 104 64 64 64
2002 46 12 5 -11 -6 -7 66 77 42 36 49
2003 48 14 7 -9 -4 -5 36 45 20 16 25
2004 52 16 9 -5 -2 -3 10 15 6 4 9
2005 58 18 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006 60 22 14 3 4 2 12 6 8 16 4
2007 68 24 20 11 6 8 66 88 48 36 64
2008 74 26 21 17 8 9 136 153 72 64 81
2009 80 32 24 23 14 12 322 276 168 196 144
=570 =180 =120
N=10 =0 0 0 956 900 524 576 504
=57 =18 =12

@ N y = (Yi - Y ) @@ x = ( X i - X ) @c@sy
@
@
|
 |

; i\;\\;s;\;k]d\;h;;Ueh;;HM;HLHO

@n@@ b@@nm@@c@ pan@h@Lc@ xa@m@@bi

@@aa@a:@na@aa@x@@Lna@a@jm@@na@@ba
@ Zbna@za@@EViews

M C GDP RER

@oibra@a@r@ C@ @L7ba@@ a@pana@ @r@ M@h@xa@a@

@a@ @ RER@ @ L7ba@ @ a@ b a@ 0a@ wmba @ GDP@ @ Lba@
@jua@ a@ pay@ I@ a@ @ ex @ c@ sy@ (RER = ex P* P ) @ a
@ba@a@ P @@jua@a@bc@n@ba@a@ P * @@Hc@b@
@b@ ba@ a@ bna@ bc@ g@ LH0a@ aI@ a@ @ ba@ n
@0a@ba@rn@paba@b@ba@a@jua@ba@rn@pana
@@kna@Quick/Estimate Equation@6a@LEViews@@ba@a@n@Lbra@a@
@by@ a@ bna@ ba@ m@ Equation Specification@ ba@ m@
@ NOK@a@!bib
 |

@ Z@b@vna@m

@
@

; \;k]\;^;]ei|\;;;;HMHO

@ Zna@bjm@lby@k!n@a@na@aa@pb@by a@a@bjna@u

@
Var b1 = s u2
x 2
2
3.9
x x - ( x x )
2 2 2
1 2 1 2

@
Var b2 = s u2
x 2
1
3.10
x x - ( x x )
2 2 2
1 2 1 2

@ n@ @ 7@ s u2 @ c@ b@ Lzna@ @ a@ ba@ o@ b0@ a@ b

@ Z s u2 @,@bz@7@n@S2@aja@bjm@ana
 |

@
S = s
2 2
=
e 2
i
4.11
u
n-k
@ Na@pba@@k@sy

@ Z@b@ m@ b2 @@ b1 @,@zna@7@bjna@pam
@
Sb2 =
e 2
i x 2
2

x x - ( x x )
4.12
1
n-k 2
1
2
2 1 2
2

@
@
Sb2 = e 2
i x 2
1

x x - ( x x )
4.13
2
n-k 2
1
2
2 1 2
2

@ b2 @@ b1 @y@pba@bjna@n@Ln@ba@b a@@ Sb @@ Sb @c@sy

2 1

@b@@ba@aa@@ b2 @@ b1 @a@@i@@ t@@@bi

NH tb = b1 S b @!rI
1 1

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@a@ bjn@ a@ b a@ pbiba@ @ HQMT@ a@ zI@ HRMTI@ a
@X1i@@ni@HRMTI@a@@ Y @@@a@n@N b @@ b @,@by a
2 1

@a@ @ a@ anbi@ NQ@ br@ @ OLS@ !i@ a@ aa@ b@ @ X2i@

@ Z@@HQMTI@@HRMTI

S 2
=
e 2
i x 2
2

b1
n-k x x - ( x x )
2
1
2
2 1 2
2

13.6704 504
= @ 0.06 , Sb @ 0.24
10 - 3 (576)(504) - (524) 2 1

@
S 2
=
e 2
i x 2
1
b2
n-k x x - ( x x )
2
1
2
2 1 2
2

13 .6704 576
= @ 0.07 , Sb @ 0.27
10 - 3 (576 )(504 ) - (524 ) 2 2
 |

@
@ paja@M8a@Ma@xbng@pb@@bjna@lby@RMT@u
year Y X1 X2 Y e e2 y2
2000 40 6 4 40.32 -0.32 0.1024 289
2001 44 10 4 42.92 1.08 1.1664 169
2002 46 12 5 45.33 0.67 0.4489 121
2003 48 14 7 48.85 -0.85 0.7225 81
2004 52 16 9 52.37 -0.37 0.1369 25
2005 58 18 12 57.00 1.00 1.0000 1
2006 60 22 14 61.82 -1.82 3.3124 9
2007 68 24 20 69.78 -1.78 3.1684 121
2008 74 26 21 72.19 1.81 3.2761 289
2009 80 32 24 79.42 0.58 0.3364 529
n=10 e = 0 e
2
= 13.6704 y
2
= 1634
@
@@ t1 = b1 Sb @ 0.65 0.24 @ 2.70 @ h@ La
1

@W@@ t = 2.365 @bvn@ t 2 @@ t1 @@c@b@L t 2 = b2 S @ 1.11 0.27 @ 4.11

b 2

@@ pa@ b@ b2 @ @ b1 @ @ h@ bnbi@ LU@ @ n@ @ y@ pbu

NU@@n@@byg
@

; i\;k\2;g]t;Ueh;;HLHMHO

@a@aa@ wbn@na@ b3 @@ b2 @n@ 100 (1 - a ) % @ YU@q@6@lb

@ Zbna@a@ky

bK t (1-a 2, N - K ) se (bK )

@pba@ @ q@ t (1-a 2, N - K ) @ @ se(bK ) @ @ bK @ @ @ ra@ 6@ lb@ xbn

@c@La@@@ C@@n@ bK @c@ a@ pbia@ m@ @m@b@Liba
@c@sy@Lna@pa6@lb@ nm@>a@ @coefs@a@@@@i@i
@h@ b2 @ r@ L bK @ pba@ yhi@ n@ b@ ah@ LC=@coefs
@L@stderrs@ a@ @ @ ba@ d a@ h@ rbi@ C(2)=@coefs(2)=0.868227
 |

@@@n@ @stderrs@@ @coefs@@ C@c@y@L@stderrs(2)=0.050290@c@sy

@nm@>a@a@ba@m@c@bmbn@@@@o@ah@Ltya@a@ba
@Eviews @ a@ ana@ @ L t (1-a 2, N - K ) @ @ k nm@ a@ oa@ @ b
@ba@@@La@pbu@@ n @@ 1 - a 2 @bm@ P@ c@sy@ @qtdistn(p, v)
@ba@a@@@i@@b@ba@@@L N - K = 31 - 3 = 28 @h
@ Zbna@aa@j m@@ b3 @@ b2 @n@YU@@n@@na@6@ba
Scalar tc = @qtdist(0.975, 28)
Scalar beta2_low=c(2) - tc*@stderrs(2)
Scalar beta2_up=c(2) + tc*@stderrs(2)
Scalar beta3_low=c(3) - tc*@stderrs(3)
Scalar beta3_up=c(3) + tc*@stderrs(3)
@

@@ enter@ bn@ @ a@ i@ Eviews@ b@ c@ @ a@ aa@ @ m

@ Na@@@ @,i@@bd@pbibu!a

@ @
@@n@ a@@ba@@@m@c@na@pa6@ba@ba@a@
@ Z@@ya@o@@a@m@@LEviews@b@c@@ibug

@
@
@
@
 |

; k]\;]ei|\;Ueh;;HMHMHO

@aa@ x@ @ @ pb@ pba@ bjna@ bjna@ i@ d@ bjna@ a@

@a7na@a@@5n@Li@bjna@@a@pba@pabjna@kc@Lna
@@ qm@ ba@ ob@ ag@ b@ @ pana@ @ q@ a@ b@ ag@ b
@ Z@b@pba@@5n@a@a@7qdn@i@qa@bjn@Npana
@

@ H 0 : b 2 = 0 @@7qdm@u@ @ H1 : b 2 0 @@7qdm@u
@ H 0 : b 3 = 0 @b@7qdm@u@ @ H1 : b 3 0 @b@7qdm@u
@

@Lb:@bjna@@7@ob@>a@pabjna@:@ p@@ t@@lb@ Eviews@anbi

@wbn@g@@_@c@@Lbm@i@a@@kzn@b @c@@b@a
@ imports_function@,@a@pbia

@
@@ t@ @ @ @ a@ qc@ bjna@ by@ @ _ba@ @ mdm@ c@ @ m@
@a@ t = 290.2812 149.3796 = 1.943245@ Zbna@ iba@ a@ aug@
: ai@p-value@bnya

p - value = P t(28) > 1.943 + P t(28) < -1.943

= 2 P t(28) < -1.943 = 0.0621

 |

@c@ bnya@ a@ lb@ Eviews@ @ k bi@ c@ vna@ @ dna@ n

@ Zbna@a@anbi

Scalar pee= 2*@ctdist(-1.943, 28)

@@bg@i@a@ a@n@L P(t(v ) < x ) @a@m@a@ @ctdist(x, v)@a@k

@@c@@b@@m@ p@@@c@LEviews@b@c@@aa@
@@@U@@n@@ H 0 : b 3 = 0 @@@@a@by@@L H 0 @
@t@ @ b@ H 0 @ y@ a@ aug@ @ bg@ a@ LP~PU@ @ 5c@ @ 0.0621@ ,@ p
@_ua@a@@@@LU@ua@a@@ 1.943246@bm@>a@i0a
@b@Eviews@adi@b@a@@L P(t(28) < t c ) = 0.975 @r@-tc@@tc@a@xbn
@ Z

Scalar tc=@qtdist(0.975,28)

@@ H 0 : b 3 = 0 @ a@ @ g@ a@ @ m@ t = 2.0484 @ c@ vna@ m
@b a@@ H1 : b 2 0 @@b@ H 0 : b 2 = 0 @bjn@p@@bc@L 1.9432 < 2.0484
@pbba@ @ a@ bj@ Eviews@ na@ n@ LP~PPPP@ ,i@ Eviews@ aa@ wbn@
@ N 4.424 10 -10 @@a

; _\;]eh;h;Ueh;;;HNHMHO

@i6a@u@@Eviews@bm@@ s 2 @d a@y@bjni@bna@ba@rybi@n
@h@ a@ pana@ b@ wbn@ @ L"S.E. of regression"@ @ @ s
@@a@ s 2 @b a@bjm@@z@bim@bi@i@ nm@ s = 492 .6520
@EViews@wbn@ana@ n@a@@lb@L (492 .6520 ) = 242705.993 104
2

@ Zb@La@m@@i@b@>a

@
@ncoef @ a@pba@@
 |

@regobs @ aa@@na@paba@
@sddep @ a@ba@aa
@ssr @ @HajaI@d a@pbi@
@ Zb@d a@bjm@lby@b!@bna@abi@
Coef(5) sigma2 @
@ sigma2(1) = @ssr @
@ sigma2(2) = @regobs @
sigma2(3) = @ncoef @
@ sigma2(4) = @ssr/(@regobs-@ncoef) @
@ sigma2(5) = (@ssr/(@regobs-@ncoef))^.5 @
@@Lana@@ s @ s 2 @@ sigma2@@ U@@ T@a@@ sigma2@@m@a
@ @se@@@a@wbna@@ s @@a@c@y

; \;k]d\;k\;2\;]ei\;]ei\;h;;Ueh;;HOHMHO
@6a@ bjna@ bjna@ @ a@ pbia@ m@ HqI@ i@ n@
@@z@La@n@bjnbi@n@@bm@Variance-Covariance matrix
@6a@ aa@ wbn@ @ a7na@ a@ Variance-Covariance @
View/Covariance Matrix

@
 |

@ Z@b@Covariance@@n

@
Variance-@ @ @ Freezing@ @ @ Table04_1@ 8a@ u@
@ Covariance

@
@ b3 @@ b2 @@ b1 @a@pbia@pa@bjm@r@ a@@ba@h@a@a@
@Lbra@ j@ @ La@ pbia@ pa@ 6a@ bjna@ r@ a@ 7@ @ ba
@Lna@aa@x@@ GDP@7n@ var(b2 ) @c@ b2 @a@bjm@@ 0.002529@a
@pa7na@ pb@ cov(b2 , b3 ) @ c@ b3 @ @ b2 @ i@ 6a@ bjna@ r@ 5.526676@ a
@ Nana@@RER@@GDP

i\;ui\;];;HNHO

@Y@na@abi@@ Y@@a@bjna@@ j@ R2@na@zna@b@

@ Z@b@bibnya@@LX2@@X1@
 |

= =1-
y 2
e 2
b1 yx1 + b2 yx2
R 2 i i
=
y 2
i y i
2
y 2

@@ RSS = y i2 @ @ m@ bg@ 7m@ c@ n@ pa7n@ xag@ c@ sy

@|za@ R 2 @lby@n@Lna@pa7na@bhi@a@ R 2 @h@bnbi@ TSS = yi2
@ Z@b@ R @c
2

@ R 2 = 1 - (1 - R 2 ) n - 1
4.14
n-k
Na@pba@@k@@Lpaba@@n@sy

) <6=)KV
@ ZHRMTI@a@@a@paja@8a@a@br@ R 2 @@a@

=1-
2
e 13 .6704
R 2 i
=1-
y i
2
1634
@ 1 - 0.0084 = 0.9916 , 99 .16 %
@c@ ya@ na@ 7na@ 8a@ sy@ Lja@ aa@ @ R 2 @ ,@ @ YW~QP@ @ b@ a
N7na
@ n -1
R 2 = 1 - (1 - R 2 )
n-k
10 - 1
= 1 - (1 - 0.9916 )
10 - 3
= 1 - 0.0084 (1.2857 ) = 0.9892 , 98 .92 %
@

; ;\;]\;\;]ei|\;;;HOHO

@jn@ a@ Na@ 7@ bjna@ g@ a@ bjna@ ji@ a@ ba@ a@ bjna@

@ Za@pba@@k@@paba@@n@sy@Ln-k@@k-1@y@pbui@ F @m
 |

Fk -1, n - k =
y (k - 1) = R (k - 1)
2
i
2 (4.15)
e (n - k ) (1 - R ) (n - k )
2
i
2

@Ly@u@@@n@@a@ F @@bvnm@i0a@ F @j@ob@ag

@ Na@@n@ R 2 @c@La@bm@@aa@pb@di@ba@a@j@n

) =6=)KV
@ R 2 = 0.9916 @ana@b@LU@@n@@Q@br@@a@a@ba@a@bjn
@ Zsy@LHS@br@I

0.9916 2
F2, 7 = @ 413 .17
(1 - 0.9916 ) 7
@y@ pbui@ U@ @ n@ @ F = 4.74 @ a@ a@ bvnm@ i0a@ F @ @ c@ b
@ Na@@ R 2 @c@n@a@bb@@ b2 @@ b1 @c@@j@n@L7@@ df = 2
@

; dh;];]ei|\;F;]ei|\;;Ueh;;HLHOHO

@a@m@@Laa@x@@ya@@y@ba@a@5n@@b
@m@ single null hypothesis@ ya@ bc@ @ bjna@ bc@ ag@ Zidi@ bjna
@@ joint null hypothesis@ 6@bc@@ bjna@ @bc@ @ag@ @ c@Lrc@c@n
@ba@a@@n@by a@bjna@bna@h@Lrc@c@n@rc@c@i
@i@bjna@@_i@c@ya@i@@@bjna@@6@c@@@
@bjna@@@na@by a@bjna@h@ba@@@La@ba@@ya
@c@ t ( N - K ) @byg@bjna@bg@Za@ @i@bjna@ana@!nm@L t ( N - K )
@"a@bjna@bc@L t(2N - K ) = F(1, N - K ) @@bbn@abjna@a@L F(1, N -K ) @byg
@ui@im@b@byg@n@a@Chi-square test@bjna@@ana@@a
 |

@na@@n@@bjna@a@@L F(1, N -K ) @byg@@qb@ c (21) @ya@y

@@@ bjna@@ F@ bjna@ bc@Ln@ p-value@bnya@@lb@n@a
@!bjm@7,j@,@bjn@,n@ c 2 @b,jna@bc@L!bj@ba@b, c@nm@b@!bb
@7@@@ L6a@ba@a@bjna@by@@bc@Nj a@@k, nm@
@@b:@ H1 @ja@a@Lya@i@bjna@5n@@bc@b@Lt@bjna@ana@kba
@!abna@ c 2 @bjna@c@ F@bjna@ana@@L H 0 @@u@7@@@rc@c@ya
@y@pbu@ H 0 @@a@@ @Lj a@@bnya@@c@bnya@
@b@ bjna@ h@ a@ L c 2 @ byg@ y@ pbu@ F@ by"@ numerator@ ja
@a@ anbi@ a@ a@ @ pbby"a@ yg@ @ lby@ @ @ [n
@ Zbna@a@@@b@@L F( J , N - K ) = c (2J ) J @Zbna
@ba@a
@ H0
@ a @ by"a @ bjna@
@ @
@ a @ pba
@ @ t(N -K ) @ 1 @ 1 @ ya@@L@ H 0
@ t(2N - k ) = F(1, N - K ) = c (21) @ c (1) @c@ F(1, N - K ) @c@ t ( N - K )
2
@ 1 1 @ @L@ H 0
@ F( J , N - K ) = c (2J ) J @ c ( J ) @c@ F( J , N - K )
2
@ J 2 @ 2 @ 6@ H 0

@@ au"@ Eviews@ ana@ @ bj@ br@ a@ @ a7na@ a@ n@

@ Z@ F @@ba@a@L c 2 @@ F @bjna@@@@Lna@pabjna

@ F=
(SSER - SSEU ) J
SSEU ( N - K )

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@ N c 2 @@ F @k@bnbi@Lwbn

@xa@ @ H1 : b 2 0 @ ja@ bi@ b@ H 0 : b 2 = 0 @ 5n@ a@ bbr@

@ Zbna

@ M = b1 + b 2GDP + b 3 RER + e

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@ n@@@b@a@Laa@pbu@wbn@a@a@@c@v@L bjna
@ N c 2 @@ F @bjna@ana

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@ b 3 = 0 @ @ b 2 = 0 @ b@ HI@ @ u@ a!@ 6@ ba@ a@ g
@ Zba@m@a@Lzz@@ H 0 @c@a@xa@6

@ M = 1 + e

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i @ @ y @ ,@ EViews@ a
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Scalar tss=@sumsq(M)-31*(@mean(M))^2

Scalar f_model=((tss-sse_u)/2)/(sse_u/(31-3))

Scalar p_model=1-@cfdist(f_model,2,28)

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@ Z X1 @@ Y @@@ X 2 @7qdm@ag@i@ X1 @@ Y @i

rYX - rYX rX X (4.16)

rYX . X = 1 2 1 2

1 - rX2 X 1 - rYX2
1 2

1 2 2
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rYX - rYX rX X (4.17)

rYX 2 . X1
= 2 2 1 2

1 - rX2 X 1 2
1 - rYX2 1

@b@@ bbi@b@ rX X @@ rYX @@L X1 @@ Y @i@ ja@bjma@ b@ rYX @ c@b

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rYX1 =
x y = 1 956
@ 0.9854

x y 2
1
2
576 1634

rYX 2 =
x y = 2 900
@ 0.9917

x y 2
2
2
504 1634

rX1 X 2 =
x x 2 1
=
524
@ 0.9725

x x 2
2
2
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504 576
rYX1 - rYX 2 rX1 X 2 0.9854 - (0.9917 )(0.9725 )
rYX1. X 2 = =
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@ 0.7023 , 70 .23 %
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rYX 2 . X1 = =
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@ 0.8434 84 .34 %
@ NY@na@@@ X1 @@c@rc@@ X 2 @L
@
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@ Z@b@a@paja@8a@a@br@wbn@m@

@ Y = 31 .98 + 0.65 X 1 + 1.11 X 2

t values ( 2.70) ( 4.11)

R = 0.992
2
R = 0.989
2
F2, 7 = 413 .17
rYX1. X 2 = 0.70 rYX 2 . X1 = 0.84

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@
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@ Nna@aibn@a@a@!@!a@5a

@ Z@b@pbbiQMT@a@@aa@ibn@
 |

Y = Xb + u

Y1 1 X 11 X 21 u1
Y 1 X b
X 22 u
0

Y = X = b = b1 u =
2 12 2

M M M M M
b2
Yn 1 X 1n X 2n u n

b0

b = b1 = ( X X ) X Y
-1

b2

S 2 cov (b0 , b1 ) cov (b0 , b2 )

b0
e e
S b2 = cov (b0 , b1 ) S b2 cov (b1 , b2 ) = ( X X )-1

1
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1 6 4 40

1 10 4 44
1 12 5 46

1 14 7 48
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 16 52
b = 6
10 12 14 16 18 22 24 26 32 6 10 12 14 16 18 22 24 26 32
1 18 12 58
4 4 5 7 9 12 14 20 21 24 4 4 5 7 9 12 14 20 21 24
1 22 14 60
1 24 20 68

1 26 21 74
1 32 24 80

@
1.36 -0.18 0.16 570 31.98

b = - 0.18 0.03 - 0.03 11216 = 0.65
0.16 - 0.03 0.04 7740 1.11
N b2 = 1.11 @@ b1 = 0.65 @@ b0 = 31.98 @Zh@bnbi

40 1 6 4 -0.32

44 1 10 4 1.08
46 1 12 5 0.67

48 1 14 7 - 0.85
52 1 31 . 98
9 - 0.37
0.65 =
16
e = Y - Xb = -
58 1 18 12 1.00

1.11
60 1 22 14 - 1.82
68 1 24 20 - 1.78

74 1 26 21 1.81
80 1 32 24 0.58

1.36 -0.18 0.16 2.66 -0.35 0.31

13.6704
S 2 = - 0.18 0.03 - 0.03 = - 0.35 0.06 - 0.07
b (10 - 3) 0.16 - 0.03 0.04 0.31 - 0.07 0.07

@ N S 2 = 0.07 @@ S 2 = 0.06 @@ S 2 = 2.66 @Zh@bnbi
b2 b1 b0
 |

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@ ZSubstituted Coefficients

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@b@@bg@L7na@@@@@@a@@LM@ibna@7na@@ibna
@ Lc@Lba@@Mf@a@7na@bb0@bn@Le

M = b1 + b2 12000 + b3 1.4

@ Z@b@EViews@@a@@

Scalar M_f = -1004.50285891 + 0.868226822514*12000 + 290.281245856*1.4

@a@La@@@@@lby@@bc @ EViews@5@ Scalar@a@a

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@
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@ NRER@u@g@Q~T@a@b#@iba@pa$a

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@a@ Lb@ SQ@ oa@ @ ba@ m@ @ na@ paba@ @ c@ y@
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@ N2007 2007

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@ N!bib@bby@>a@na@@ib@LNA@n@RPPV@g@QYWV

@ @
@ M = 9820.613 @ Z@ b@ b:@ ba@ aa@ na@ M@ @ m@ i
@Z@ b@ na@ 6@ lb@ bana@ b@ se( f ) = 609 .8912
@ M t(1-a 2, 28) se( f )
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year @ a
@ Hb@I @ @
@ Hb@I X2 X3
Y
X1
2003 162.6 857.1 13.0 78.5
2004 211.6 1100.6 7.6 97.8
2005 254.7 1194.6 6.7 109.3
2006 280.3 1357.0 5.7 101.1
2007 279.0 1467.2 3.6 102.3
2008 254.5 1390.5 2.7 102.5
2009 237.5 1174.5 3.1 78.9
2010 235.5 1066.0 2.4 79.2
@ Za
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