Monte Carlo

Simulation
 Definition
Monte Carlo Simulation is a mathematical method
used in risk analysis and probabilistic analysis
Monte Carlo Simulations are used to approximate
the distribution of potential results based on
probabilistic inputs
Monte carlo approach to
volumetric
 Monte Carlo Analysis

Monte Carlo simulation take multiple distributions of input

parameters, put into the model and create histogram to
depict the results of the analysis
Monte Carlo output: probability vs. variable value
 Monte Carlo Analysis

The model in the forms of mathematical equations

with variables stated by frequency distribution
(probability density function pdf) and cumulative
distribution
The frequency distribution of the variables in the
model predicted based on limited data that will
result a non continuous distribution curve, such as
uniform distribution or triangular distribution
 Uniform Distribution

Uniform distribution is a probability distribution with

lower limit a, and upper limit b
All intervals of the same length on the distribution's
support are equally probable
w(x) are distribution frequency, and W(x-xi) are cumulative frequency
= random number

b b
 Triangular Distribution

Triangular distribution is a probability distribution

with lower limit a, upper limit b and mode c, where a
< b, and a c b.
 Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is a repetitive calculation

process to produce a number of output
Input variable x is obtained based on distribution
cumulative frequency (triangular and uniform) -
W(x<xi)
W(x<xi) searched by using random number
Put the input variable x into the model make
repetitive calculation
Create histogram of the model to depict the results
of the analysis
 Random Number

One random number only assigned to one variable

(example: RN1 assigned to variable Xa)
Output model f{A,B,C} consist of set number of RN1,
RN2 and RN3; etc...
 Constructing a Frequency Distribution
Table

Find the lowest and highest values of the variables

Decide number of interval with rule of thumbs:
S = 1 + 3.3 log (n)
S = number of interval
n = number of sample
Decide on the width of the class intervals
Count the number of results in each interval (frequency of
class interval)
Determine relative frequency and cumulative frequency
Relative frequency = frequency number of observations
Create histogram and plot the cumulative chart
 Example
Model Iteration Frequency distribution table

Distribution chart
 Task

Gunakan 10000 bilangan random

Luas (A): min: 8000, max: 14000 (Acres)
Tabel (h): min: 15, most probable: 80, max: 120 (FT)
Recovery (Rec): min: 20, most probable: 50, max: 80
(B/Acre - FT)

Buat distribusi cadangan dari data tersebut menggunakan

simulasi monte carlo
Berapakah nilai cadangan proved, probable dan possible?
Berapakah nilai P10, P50, dan P90?

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