The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences xxx (2017) xxxxxx

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The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences

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Research Paper

Quantification of impact of changes in land use-land cover on hydrology

in the upper Indus Basin, Pakistan
Syed Muhammad Zubair Younis , Ahmad Ammar
Institute of Geographical Information Systems, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Empirically based lumped hydrologic models have an extensive track record of use for various watershed
Received 18 January 2017 managements and flood related studies. This study focuses on the impacts of land use land cover change
Revised 10 October 2017 for a 10 year period (20002010) on the stream discharge in a sub-watershed of Indus River using
Accepted 6 November 2017
lumped model HEC-HMS. The input variables for model building in HEC-HMS were calculated based
Available online xxxx
on the DEM, LULC, soil and precipitation data which was collected and pre-processed in HEC-GeoHMS.
The model was calibrated for the year 2000 and validation was done for 2010. The statistics shows cor-
Keywords:
relation coefficient = 0.96, relative Bias =
9% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) = 0.87.
HEC-HMS
Indus above Tarbela
The validation statistics are Correlation Coefficient = 0.95, Bias =
14% and NSCE = 0.91. The model
LULC change results shows that LULC change analysis using Landsat images in 10 years the overall concussion of
LandSat change on discharge has been negligible in the study area. Due to decrease in forest the percent of bare
TRMM soil and built up area increases. This conclusion was further supported by the LULC change analysis
conducted on a local scale metropolitan district of Mansehra (16 km2). Soil and built up area in this
sub-watershed increased from 69%, 8.2% in 2000 to 78%, 13.76% in 2010 respectively, whereas the corre-
sponding river discharge increased by 33.61% from year 20002010, proving strong positive correlation
on a local scale between the LULC and the river discharge.
2017 National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-
nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction Among a few reasons which impact the flooding possible to

Floods are the most wrecking calamity among all the character-
istic of natural disasters due to its expansion and frequency. They
are common wonders connected with the slant, waterways and
channels. Streams are the biggest source of fresh water (Ali and
De Boer, 2007). Thus, human social orders settle and prosper along
the banks of streams more than anyplace else on the globe. In light
of expansive populace close to the streams, the life and financial
misfortune because of floods is likewise huge. Reports prove that
in the year 2010, more than 178 million people were straightfor-
wardly influenced by the floods far and wide for these occasions
over the globe are in charge of more than 33% economic losses of
the world. (Jha et al., 2012).
Peer review under responsibility of National Authority for Remote Sensing and
Space Sciences.
Corresponding author at: Institute of Geographical Information Systems, School
of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Sciences and
Technology, H-12 Sector, Islamabad, Pakistan.
E-mail address: zubair10@igis.nust.edu.pk (S.M.Z. Younis).
happen, poor administration and improper human developments
along the stream banks is a standout among the most critical
one. Particularly in a developing nation like Pakistan, where popu-
lation growth is on the higher side, individuals need more space for
settlements and more assets to manufacture those (Zhou et al.,
2008). In this way, the rate of urbanization and deforestation adds
to the principle elements which increment the seriousness and
additionally a number of flood occasions. There are two particular
segments of Indus above Tarbela district. The bigger one comprises
of snow-covered mountains and icy masses with perpetual snow
cover. This bit has a range of around 158,000 km2 and is around
960 km long, 160 km wide. The littler part which is around
10000 km2 is quick upstream segment to Tarbela repository. This
segment gets the most amount of monsoonal precipitation and
the runoff here profoundly relies on the measure of precipitation.
The most critical flood generation cause is the Indus Basin incorpo-
rates monsoonal rain, trailed by the size, shape, and land-
utilization of the catchments, and by the exchanging limit of the
streams connected with the Indus. The rain fall downpours from
July to September, are extraordinary and far reaching brought on
by the climate patterns starting in the Indian Ocean and the

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.11.001
1110-9823/ 2017 National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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2 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx

Arabian Sea. The rain pattern is more intricate by the impedance of
other climate systems, like, westerlys starting in the Mediter-
ranean Sea and some neighborhood convection and some oro-
graphic low pressure frameworks (Draper et al., 2009).
Geographical Information System (GIS) is used to join precipita-
tion data with stream qualities to model and visualize falling precip-
itation, runoff, and rising streams (Foody, 2004). Progressively, GIS is
joining time components into their analytical capacities. These time
components known as spatio-temporal information improves mod-
eling of real world phenomena. Joining spatialtemporal informa-
tion into different parts of watershed management is a basic
approach to examine stream flow data and shape a basic flood model
(Dai and Khorram, 1999). In view of the way that hydrological and in
addition geomorphological qualities shift spatially, the utilization of
GIS has attained a lot of consideration in the recent times, whereby
the analysis at various scales should be possible and all the varia-
tions can be taken into account (Melesse and Shih, 2002).
The focus of this study is to analyze the hydrological character-
istics of the study area and to assess the impact of changes in the
land-use land-cover on increasing the severity of the flood event.
To study the aspect which is responsible in any change of discharge
from precipitation is essential for flood management (Younis and
Iqbal, 2015). Spatial hydrology is one of the most ideal approaches
to perform investigation on the zone with limited access. So Satel-
lite remote sensing data and hydrological model HEC-HMS are
used to compute the discharge in the area. Several researchers
have studied the impact of LULC on discharge pattern and HEC-
HMS model for discharge simulations. Lan (2012) studied the
impact of LULC on discharge through the HEC-HMS model and
found that with an increase in built up area of about 4 times in
50 years, the discharge increase about 6 times from 1958 to
2008. Maity (2009) simulated discharge through HEC-HMS model
and found a high correlation between simulated and observed
discharge of the Beas River, India. Andrassian et al. (2001) and
Majidi and Vagharfard (2013) also found satisfactory results of
simulated discharge using HEC-HMS.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Location of the study area is in Khyber Pakhtukhwa (KP) pro-
vince of Pakistan. Initialize from Terbela reservoir and ends at
Besham station. The extent of the study area is between latitude
34 and 35 and longitude 72 and 73 as shown in (Fig. 1).
2.2. Datasets
The datasets required for carrying out the research include
Landsat TM satellite images for the years 2000 and 2010 for the
analysis of land use land cover in the study area. Shuttle Radar
Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was
used for basin analysis. Satellite based rainfall estimation of TRMM
(3B42v7 product) was used as input precipitation data for the
model. Digital World Soil Map (DWSM) data were used to extract
the soil groups in the study area. River daily discharge data for
the years 2000 & 2010 was collected from the Federal Flood Com-
mission (FFC), Pakistan for calibration and validation of the simu-
lated discharge from HEC-HMS model.
2.3. Methodology
In this study, surface run-off simulation has been done with the
Soil Conservation Service (SCS) methods using HEC-HMS
hydrological model and the model was optimized, calibrated, and

Fig. 1. Study area in the upper reaches of the Indus basin from BishamQila in the north to Tarbela reservoir in the south located in the north western part of Pakistan.

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 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx
validated for the rainfall monsoonal period of years 2000 and 2010,
and then their output flood hydrographs and peak flow estimation
were examined.
The overall methodology for the research is given in (Fig. 2), and
can be divided into 5 portions.
1. DEM processing was done in HEC-GeoHMS extension of ArcGIS
2. Soil map was processed to extract Hydrological Soil Groups
(HSG) for the study area
3. Precipitation data were downloaded and converted to input in
the model HEC-HMS
4. Satellite images were classified to produce LULC maps
5. All the datasets were then used in HEC-HMS model and calibra-
tion and validation of the model was done to get the output
2.4. HEC-HMS model
HEC-HMS is a precipitation-runoff lumped model. It uses
empirical methods to convert rainfall volume to runoff volume.
Hydrographs produced by the program are used for studies of flow
forecasting, future urbanization impact, flood damage reduction,
floodplain regulation etc. (HEC, 2006). HEC-GeoHMS extension in
ArcGIS can be used to setup the model parameters for HEC-HMS
model. HEC-GeoHMS analyzes digital terrain data and transforms
the drainage paths and watershed boundaries into a hydrologic
data structure that represents the drainage network. Pre-
processing of the DEM was done in HEC-GeoHMS for setting up
input parameters and defining the methods to be used in HEC-
HMS model.
HEC-HMS model has 4 units.
2.4.1. Basin model
It holds data relevant to the physical attributes of the model,
such as basin areas, river reach connectivity, or reservoir data.
Fig. 2. Overall methodology for the research.
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3
2.4.2. Meteorological model
It has the rainfall & evapotranspiration data.
2.4.3. Control specifications
It contains data related to the timing of the model like when a
storm occurred and what type of time interval is to be adopted in
the model.
2.4.4. Input data
Stores boundary and parameter conditions for basin and mete-
orological models.
There are certain methods which have to be selected for simu-
lating discharge through the HEC-HMS model. The methods
include loss method, transform method and routing method. These
processes reflect the spatial and geomorphologic information to
execute the stream flow estimation (Bookhagen and Burbank,
2010).
2.5. Loss method
The loss method allows choosing the process which calculates
the rainfall losses absorbed by the ground. The loss method chosen
in this study for loss method was SCS-CN which uses CN values for
each sub-basin along with the initial abstraction values. The for-
mula for calculating loss through the SCS-CN method is:
P
Ia2
Q 1
P
Ia S
where P is precipitation in mm, Ia is initial abstraction in mm and S
is the soil retention. Soil retention is calculated using CN values
with the formula as:
25400
S
254 2
CN
4 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx

2.6. Transform method
The Transform method allows specifying how to convert excess
rainfall to direct runoff. SCS unit hydrograph method was used in
this study. For calculation of purpose, values of lag time were cal-
culated for each sub basin using slope length and CN values. The
following dimension-less equation is used for the transformation
of surface runoff to the channel:
An error matrix for each land cover class is shown in the Table 4.1.
The overall accuracy was calculated as 71.4%. The kappa coefficient
is the measure of statistical classification accuracy and it was mea-
sured using ArcGIS. The kappa coefficient for the 2010 image was
calculated as 0.623.
3.2. Generation of CN raster

A CN values were obtained by generating a curve number raster

Up C
Tp
where A is the watershed area and C is the conversion constant
(2.08 in SI and 484 in FPS system). The time of peak and duration
of the unit excess precipitation is related as:
Dt
Tp tlag
2 c) CN values for each unique combination of polygons were
where DT is the duration of excess precipitation; t (lag) is the basin
lag. The lag time is estimated through calibration and this travel
time is done by TR-55 method. The basin lag time was calculated
through CN lag method tool according to the equation below:
3
using LULC map, soil map (Fig. 4). The procedural steps for CN ras-
ter generation are as under:
a) Both LULC map and soil maps were converted to polygons.
b) Table or vector operation (Union) to get polygons of a unique
combination of both the maps in Arc-GIS.
4
assigned by query operation in Arc-GIS and grid map was
created.
d) Raster map of CN was generated as shown in the (Fig. 3).
e) Average CN value determination for each sub-basin.

L0:8  S 10:7
Lag 5 3.3. Calibration of HEC-HMS model
1900  Y 0:5

1000 The HEC HMS model was calibrated using the 2000 datasets and
S
100 6 parameters setting. The discharge data from FFC was used in the
CN
calibration. The parameters including initial abstraction and curve
where
number were tuned to best possible match for the observed
Lag = basin lag time (h)
ground discharge data. The 2010 dataset was then used for valida-
L = hydraulic length of the watershed (feet)
tion purpose, keeping the parameters values same as that of 2000.
Y = basin slope (%)
To calibrate model the sensitive parameters are modified to flexi-
ble extent, so that the outcomes are matched to measured values
2.7. Routing method
based on a predefined objective. The referenced observations are
compared with the values estimated from the model. In general,
Routing accounts for changes in flow hydrograph as a flood
models in hydrology are area specific so they must be calibrated
wave passes downstream. Routing method used in this study
by using them in areas other than where they developed.
was Muskingum, which uses travel time K (assumed as CN lag
time) and degree of storage values x (is assumed 0.2).
3.4. HEC-HMS model results
3. Results
Two years monsoonal periods 2000 & 2010 was used for dis-
3.1. Land-use land-cover change analysis charged analysis. Monsoon period comprises from July 15 to
September 15, so satellite rainfall data (TRMM) were obtained to
Landsat satellite images of 2000 and 2010 were classified using simulate the discharge in HEC-HMS. Most of the flood events or
supervised classified with a maximum likelihood classifier. Five high discharge is expected in this period. The simulated result is
classes were made, namely; Water, Soil, Forest, Grass and Built-up added into consideration for Tarbela outlet. The model was run
(Table 4). Change analysis was done by calculating the areas of on a daily base interval and analysis are relying on this output.
land cover in 2000 and then relating to the areas of land covers Simulated average per day discharge is compared with average
in 2010 as shown in (Table 1). The final LULC maps for the years daily observed discharge. The values of some selected days of the
2000 and 2010 along with the graphs of change analysis are shown simulated and observed discharge during calibration for a one
in (Fig. 3). The overall accuracy of the classification was calculated day period are shown in (Table 2). The hydrograph for the mon-
through error matrix generation. The error matrix was made soonal period was generated for the calibrated values in the HEC-
through high resolution Google imagery. Total 98 points were HMS model shown in (Fig. 5). The validation of the model was done
taken on the Google image for different land covers and then they for the year 2010 and the hydrograph generated is shown in
were validated by overlaying them in the classified image of 2010. (Fig. 6).

Table 1
The area of each LULC classified as well as the percentage of their increase or decrease from the year 2000 to 2010.

Land Cover Type Area in year 2000 (km2) Percentage of total area 2000 Area in year 2010 (km2) Percentage of total area 2010 Percentage increase/
decrease
Water 204.7 3.01% 225.7 3.3% Increase 10%
Soil 2343.55 34.4% 3075.56 45.2% Increase 31%
Forest 2280.31 33.4% 1892.56 27.8% Decrease 17%
Grass 1962.29 28.8% 1563.76 22.9% Decrease 20%
Built-up 21.55 0.3% 48.3 0.7% Increase 124%

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 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx 5

Fig. 3. Overall results of the LULC change analysis done for the study area.

Fig. 4. Curve Number Raster generated from LULC and Soil data. The dark shades represent higher value of CN and thus higher runoff potential areas while the brighter colors
represents lower runoff potential areas.

Table 2 (Table 3). Scatter plot and regression line between observed and
Simulated and observed discharge at Tarbela gauge during calibration of HEC-HMS simulated discharge for monsoonal period of 2000 and 2010
model for year 2000. (Fig. 7).
Date Precipitation (mm) Observed (m3/s) Simulated (m3/s)
3.6. Sensitivity analysis of HEC-HMS
22/07/2000 12.4 4793.6 5238.00
29/07/2000 16.0 6955.2 7466.40
31/07/2000 74.5 8008 9769.50 During the calibration process for HEC-HMS, two parameters
6/08/2000 29.4 5616.8 5485.50 were found more sensitive. These are the Curve Number (CN)
9/08/2000 18.4 5269.6 5258.70 and Initial Abstraction for sub-basins. Three values for all of the
31/08/2000 13.4 4874.8 5106.60
parameters are used to get how they are sensitive and which is
4/09/2000 10.5 4715.2 4454.10
6/09/2000 20.2 4603.2 4533.30 more sensitive and which is most sensitive for Tarbela watershed.
It is found that the Curve Number comes out as the most sensitive
parameter to change the discharge value followed by Initial
Abstraction. The sensitivity index for the parameters was also cal-
3.5. Statistical analysis culated using the following equation

To evaluate the accuracy of model results, statistical approach is jRI
RDj

Si
adopted. The resultant values for 3 statistical tests are given in Rn

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6 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx

16000 100.0

14000

12000

Precipitaon (mm)
Discharge(m3/s) 10000

8000 50.0

6000

4000

2000

0 0.0

Precipitaon Observed Simulated

Fig. 5. Comparison of simulated discharge for year 2000 generated by the model after calibration, plotted versus the observed discharge values at Tarbela outlet.

25000 150.00

20000

Precipitaon (mm)
Discharge(m3/s)

100.00
15000

10000
50.00

5000

0 0.00

Precipitaon Observed Simulated

Fig. 6. Comparison of simulated discharge for year 2010 generated by the model for validation, plotted versus the observed discharge values at Tarbela outlet.

where
Table 3
Si = Sensitivity Index
Statistical analysis results.
RI = Parameter increased
Statistical method Year 2000 Year 2010 RD = Parameter decreased
Correlation coefficient 0.96 0.97 Rn = Parameter value
Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency 0.87 0.91
Relative Bias
9%
14%
The results of the sensitivity index are shown in the (Table 6).

Table 4
The area of each LULC classified sub watershed as well as the percentage of total area for the year 2000 and 2010.

Class Area in 2000 (Km2) Percentage of total Area Area in 2010 (Km2) Percentage of total Area
Soil 11.17 69.53 12.58 78.30
Forest 0.87 5.41 0.52 3.25
Grass 2.71 16.86 0.75 4.69
Built-up 1.32 8.20 2.21 13.76

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 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx 7

2000 N = 90
R = 0.9261

16000

14000

Simulated Discharge (m3/s)

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Observed Discharge (m3/s)

2010 N = 90
R = 0.9555

25000

20000
Simulated Discharge (m3/s)

15000

10000

5000

0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Observed Discharge (m3/s)

Fig. 7. Scatter plot and regression line between observed and simulated discharge for monsoonal period of 2000 and 2010.

3.7. LULC effect on discharge
We can examine the impact of LULC on runoff by using the cal-
ibrated models according to every land use scenario on the same
rainfall event and volume of generated runoff, also comparing
the resulting the stream flows with one another (Lan, 2012). In this
study to evaluate the LULC impact on discharge, first the model
was simulated with 2000 LELC scenario and other parameters were
also set accordingly, then setting the other parameters constant
with changed LULC scenario of 2010 to run the simulation. It was
observed that although changing the factor of LULC alone shows
increasing value of discharge (about 6%) but it was not a consider-
able change in the discharge values for the whole watershed.
Studies show that increase or decrease in discharge is directly
associated with the amount of built-up area in it. The resultant
very small impact of LULC can be associated with the fact that
the whole watershed has less than 1% built-up area in it. To prove
this a small sub-watershed (16 km2) with a good proportion of
built-up area in it was extracted (Fig. 8), and the simulation for dis-
charge was done with the same parameter settings as that of the
whole watershed.
The calibrated model for complete watershed parameters were
used to simulate smaller watershed. 8 different events were cre-
ated by using simulations, with precipitation value of more than
15 mm, all others parameters are constant for 2000 & 2010 just
changing the LULC parameters. The results showed a significant
percentage of increase in discharge for each event. The simulated
results for the whole watershed were then compared with sub-
watershed results as shown in the (Table 5).
4. Conclusion
The calibration of the HEC-HMS model was done for the year
2000 and validated for 2010. The calibration statistics for n = 63
(monsoon season during July, August and September) is correlation
coefficient = 0.96, relative Bias =
9% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient
of efficiency (NSCE) = 0.87. The model validation statistics are CC =
0.95, Bias =
14% and NSCE = 0.91. The model results show that
LULC change analysis using Landsat TM images in 10 years the
overall conclusion of change on discharge has been negligible in
the study area. Due to decrease in forest the percent of bare soil

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Fig. 8. LULC of metropolitan sub-watershed in Mansehra District of KP province in Pakistan with a distinct proportion off built-up class in it.

Table 5
Comparison of the percentage increase in discharge values for whole Tarbela watershed and sub-watershed at Mansehra.

Whole watershed Discharge m3/s Mansehra City Discharge m3/s

Rain 2000 LULC 2010 LULC Percentage increase 2000 LULC 2010 LULC Percentage increase
33.9 139.6 150 6.93 1.5 2 25.00
21.4 41.2 44.9 8.24 0.4 0.6 33.33
24.8 176.3 183.9 4.13 0.9 1.2 25.00
15.0 33.8 34.6 2.31 0.3 0.5 40.00
21.0 35.2 38.2 7.85 0.6 0.9 33.33
17.4 24.6 26 5.38 0.3 0.6 50.00
21.5 40.8 44.2 7.69 0.5 0.7 28.57
Average % increase in discharge 6.08 Average % increase in discharge 33.61

Table 6 discharge. Soil and built up area in this sub-watershed increased

Sensitivity analysis values for curve number parameter. The corresponding discharge from 69%, 8.2% in 2000 to 78%, 13.76% in 2010 respectively,
values for each CN are given along with the observed discharge at Tarbela gauge. whereas the corresponding river discharge by 33.61% from year
Date CN1 CN2 CN3 Observed 2000 to 2010, proving a strong positive correlation on a local scale
22-Jul-00 5241.3 5246 5252.8 5238 between the LULC and the river discharge. The rainy days of more
29-Jul-00 7476.8 7489.3 7509.7 7466.4 than 15 mm were considered to generate river discharge and the
31-Jul-00 10,251.3 10,514.9 10,784.3 9769.5 change in percentage was averaged. Outcomes of the study con-
1-Aug-00 12,429.9 12,760.9 13,100.4 11,872.8 clude that as built-up area increase up to 40% in the city from
2-Aug-00 12,284 12,304.1 12,324.8 12,263.4
2000 to 2010, it also increases the discharge to 33%, which con-
6-Aug-00 5589.7 5674.1 5790.1 5485.5
9-Aug-00 5299.5 5336 5391 5258.7 firms that LULC change will affect the discharge value of a certain
28-Aug-00 4165.8 4166.6 4167.1 4164.3 area.
31-Aug-00 5111.7 5118.4 5129 5106.6
4-Sep-00 4455.7 4458.8 4462.6 4454.1
6-Sep-00 4555.6 4579 4618.2 4533.3
7-Sep-00 4371.1 4399 4444.3 4347.9
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 S.M.Z. Younis, A. Ammar / Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. xxx (2017) xxxxxx 9

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Please cite this article in press as: Younis, S.M.Z., Ammar, A.. Egypt. J. Remote Sensing Space Sci. (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.11.001