Profitable Trading made Possible Andrea Unger

Contents

About the Author 2

Profitable Trading Made Possible 3
Discretionary or Systematic 5
Discretionary Trading 6
The Video Gamer 6
The Chartist 7
The Trigger Puller 7
Juggling with your Money 8
Trading Systems the Dark Side of the Moon 9
The Enlightening Friend 11
Real-Time Experience 12
A Look at the Markets 13
Money Management 31
Larry Williams 32
Can Trading be Learned? 33
Can Trading be Taught? 33

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About the Author

Andrea Unger
Born in Tuttlingen (Germany) on 2/12/1966.
Graduated cum laude in Mechanical Engineering in 1990 at the internationally known Politecnico
di Milano and member of MENSA, Andrea became an independent trader in 2001 and focused
on development of trading systems. In 2004, he attended a seminar of Larry Williams to improve
his skills and in 2005, he won the TopTraderCup in futures division with over 60% performance in
3 months. The same year he won the monthly race of the Tcup, organized by the Italian broker
IwBank with over 50% in one month. The obtained results allowed him to become an honorary
member of the National Investment Consultant Organization and to become graduated honoris
causa in Portfolio Management and Asset Allocation.
In 2006, his mathematical mind led him to publish the first book in Italian language about Money
Management.
In 2008, Andrea became the first Italian trader to win the most famous trading championship all
over the world; he won The World Cup Trading Championships in the futures division with an
astonishing 672%.
In 2009, Andrea became the first back to back winner of the competition in nearly 20 years
winning again with 115%.
And in 2010, Andrea became the first trader ever winning the competition three years in a row
ending first with 240%.
Andrea is also a member of SIAT; the Italian Technical Analysis Organization member society of
IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts) and is part of the technical committee of this
society.

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Profitable Trading Made Possible

When I was a child, I liked math and everything that would keep my mind alive.
Growing up I had a desire; the desire was to make a living out of something where I
could be recognized mainly by my skills. When I started working for a big company
I thought it could be the right time to get a good career simply because I believed in
my skills. I actually had a good career but not only my skills were responsible for that
and I also had limitations despite those skills.
Year after year I had an increasing feeling that it was not the job I was looking for.
At a certain point in my life I discovered the stock market and I began investing. I still
remember the first shares I bought in a bank, the lady said:
Well the stock price at this moment is 7.8, what price do you want to buy at?
I looked at her in a very stupid way wondering something like:
If you say the price is 7.8 why are you asking me what price I want to buy?
At last I bought those shares and I also had a profitable exit some weeks later yet I
still did not know exactly what that was all about.
Some years later I bought other shares basing decisions on rumors (actually
colleagues with a friend who had a friend, who had a friend knowing somebody with
some other friends who knew what was going to happen in the future), I made
money, once, twice, also a third time; but then I discovered all of a sudden it had
only been luck, and I met the first bear market and I did it completely ignoring the
concept of stop loss...
Later on I actually closed that losing position; but the stop applied was mainly based
on desperation, and I was even more desperate when I saw my capital heavily
reduced in comparison to its value before my investment adventure.

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At that moment I recognized that I had done actions with no knowledge at all about
the field I was exploring, I lost money not exactly knowing why and I didnt want to
accept it, so I started studying that odd thing called markets.
I heard there were fundamental analyses and technical analyses; I remember a flight
to New York on which I read many P/E of companies in a financial newspaper.
I learned very simple concepts about moving averages and I thought that I could
really beat the markets with that knowledge.
And I was wrong again.
So what should I do with that knowledge? Why was I still losing money? It became
evident to me that what was shown as a deep truth of trading in reality was nothing;
not even to start with.
There was one question I did not openly ask myself and it was: will this method
really make money? the question was not properly posed and reading all the truths
about moving averages, etc. I anticipated that question with a positive answer; it
looked like that simple approach had to make money simply because I read it in a
well presented form.
But I read only the skeleton of a trading approach and I wanted to make a living out
of that skeleton yet there were only bones, no muscles no tendons, nothing...
I was lucky enough to understand how poor my knowledge was and I had to decide
whether to quit the game or to study further, I decided to go on!
Here are some thoughts about different aspects of trading, in these thoughts there
is part of my experience trying to explain how I lived events related to those parts
of trading. I think many of you will recognize yourselves in some or all of these
thoughts. I hope you all passed to the next stage in a profitable way as I did. If not
(or even if you did) I hope my writing will help you in getting to the right spot.

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Discretionary or Systematic?

Here is the question, maybe the most important question about the approach to
dedicate to this.
The question can even be deepened in other kinds of doubts:
- What does discretionary actually mean?
- What does systematic mean?
As much as I have learned about this I can say that both fields are huge, but there
are clear boundaries dividing the two approaches; these clear boundaries are
determined by the fact that if at the moment of placing the trade, the trader has to
decide whether to place it or not, then he is trading in a discretionary mode.
Regardless of the approach, any market gives us signals to open or close a trade.
These signals can come from an automated software previously programmed, from
a chart setup drawn by the trader, or even simply by a feeling growing in the stomach
of the trader. It doesnt matter at a certain point a voice inside us is telling us to enter
the market. If we can decide whether to listen to this voice or not, then we are
discretionary traders.

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Discretionary Trading

So lets go deeper inside discretionary trading. Three main approaches build this
field:
- Pure instinct based decision
- Method built upon observation
- Decisions based on the feeling of the moment when an automatic signal is
generated

The Video Gamer

The first group is the most aimed for by most of the people. Everybody hopes to be
so talented that they can simply sit in front of a monitor, watch quotes going by,
understand what should come next and, therefore, make their decisions in what
direction to enter the market.
Sitting in front of a monitor and watching prices during the day actually helps in
getting a feeling about the moves that take place; but to take a consequent action,
and to manage the position going to be opened, is not as easy as it looks.
To be part of this group of traders, a real talent is needed and a very low percentage
of people have this gift. Skills can be developed but some special cerebral fuel is
needed to perform well in such a style and it is definitively not for everyone.
It would not be bad to use the markets as a video game; but as in video games
there are incredibly talented guys and many others who are a real disaster.
We should not forget that as skilled as these players are; considering that their
normally young age, and youth helps in reaction times, concentration and velocity;
getting older, it becomes harder and harder. The same would happen to these
instinct based traders.

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The Chartist
The second group of discretionary traders usually build a template with indicators or
other similar things on which they make their decisions. Sometimes they display a
simple moving averages crossover and sometimes they have complicated colored
charts with dots and lines moving around everywhere (those are the decision
makers). These charts are built upon experience and observation and often lead to
pretty good results; if the method they are based on is strong. The problem is that it
usually takes a long time to arrive to a good development of a decent model, and
also a long time to decide if the model is really good. What this approach misses in
fact, is a calculation of the expectation of the strategy. Everything is done by
observing and very seldom a real calculation of how much the strategy would have
made in the last X years. The employment of a strategy is normally based on a very
short period of observation and lacks in robustness and stability for the long haul.
A good sensation can be acquainted by observing the behavior of prices over a
certain period; but as this is done manually, the period cannot be really long, and
we can never be sure that the built method has always been working or that it will
go on working for a long time.

The Trigger Puller

The third group has signal generators. Either of the above mentioned kind or real
software popping up entry/exit information. Yet these traders decide for every signal
if it makes sense to follow it or not, if the instruction in the signal does not convince
their feeling of the moment, they dont open the trade. In a similar way, when in a
trade, they decide to close it often too soon, as soon as they see a decent profit,
regardless of the structure of the strategy which would probably tell them to wait for

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an even bigger gain, and, on the contrary when losing, they may decide not to exit
at the stop loss level as they feel confident in a bounce in prices.
These kind of traders are often systematic traders who have a lack of belief in their
system and try to tweak it with their opinion. Sometimes their decisions are right but
on average over a longer period, the human action on the machine generated signals
leads to real disasters.

Juggling with your Money

What these three approaches have in common is the necessity to be there and
push the mouse button. The video gamer needs a very high and strong presence
while the chartist and the trigger puller have a higher degree of freedom; yet all lead
to a high amount of stress due to their needs.
To sit in front of the monitor managing the trades may give the impression of keeping
the market under control, it may let one think he is controlling his money; the prices
and the profits, keeping everything under control like a juggler, this might even be
true, but it is also clear to everybody how much concentration is needed by a
juggler...

This is what I thought and think about discretionary trading, having gathered
experience in the markets I sometimes place discretionary trades in a mix of all three
approaches. It may make fun, it is a sort of new discovery yet, generally, considering
all the above mentioned reasons, I preferred to open my mind to trading systems. It
should have been easier, right?

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Trading Systems - the Dark Side of the Moon

Oh I thought I was clever, I really thought I could program the best system out there
simply because I was clever enough to achieve that.
I learned roughly soon how to program in EasyLanguage and I also got enough data
to start testing ideas. Thats great, to test ideas!
Yes, but what ideas?
A trading system all of a sudden appeared to be one of the most complicated
experiences in life. Where should I start from?
What should I do?
The first try to get out of the dark was mixing indicators to get signals, I read plenty
of stuff on technical analyses and I read topics on well known forums to figure out
how to move. And then I started becoming desperate...
Why werent any of my ideas not working?
and
What was wrong in my entries and exits?
And again
What approach should I try to get? At last, a profitable strategy?

So I looked for a trading system sold on the internet, they were presented in a very
nice shape and they looked really complicated as far as what the underlying
concepts were about. When I read those codes I thought I understood why my ideas
were not working and I thought I had a lot more effort to put into the job. Those
codes were really showing that trading is not a business for everybody, only a real
scientist could achieve something!

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Proudly I put those systems on the charts and there it was that I discovered the
astonishing truth:
Those expensive systems, so complicated, did not make money. Exactly like my
own ideas.
So I read again. There was an interesting concept that sounded very well in terms
of development. Following that I needed a setup, a trigger and then position
management; simple and direct, but
What exactly was a setup?
And:
What was a trigger?
And last but not least:
How should I manage the potential position?

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The Enlightening Friend

Many years passed from those days and I might still be there looking for a solution
if I had not met a friend who was already developing systems. He wanted to
cooperate and gave me a very basic and stupid base code for systems, and this
code had upset the concepts I had learned. It did not start from a setup and look for
a trigger; it was starting from a trigger and then refining setups... crazy? Maybe, but
it showed results and it was what I needed!
I went on deepening the matter and the first profitable systems came out; what an
easy starting point! To buy or sell at the breakout of determined levels following a
starting trend, simply buying at higher prices if prices were raising or sell at lower
prices if they were falling.. This was too easy to believe.
We all are born with a countertrend mind, when prices fall we think it is a good
occasion to buy, when prices raise we stay out as they went up too much; my
friend gave me the exact opposite suggestion: follow the trend!
At last I had my first systems and I wanted to put them to work. I did, I also made
some money; but nothing compared to what I could expect.

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Real-Time Experience
Why was I getting different results in real-time from what I was getting in testing?
Suddenly I discovered the truth of markets; theory said that limit orders have no
slippage and stop orders can be executed with slippage. I discovered how you
could get more slippage with limit orders rather than stop orders. This was not
possible in my beliefs as the concept of Limit and Stop was clearly following the
learnt theory; but this is just a limited point of view and experience showed a really
different truth.
Then I found out the limitations of the software. Lack of proper information may lead
to a bad back testing, normally more optimistic than the truth, and real-time will show
the worst side of the coin.
Working on higher time frames without intrabar information is a sure way to
overestimate the results of a system. Many unknown tricks were played at me from
the computer itself and I was fooled by the numbers.
Last but not least, the theory of back-testing showed a perfect world where every
trade had been taken, oh what difference in real life! Connection breakdown,
brokers technical problems, high latency in sending the order, these are just some
of the obstacles encountered with real money, and as to Murphys Law:
you will miss only the winning trades, losers will all be taken!
So these were some examples of the passage from theory to practice. Real trading
practice let things be considered in their real contest and it was able to figure them
out correctly or at least honestly.

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A Look at the Markets

To better understand how Markets can be studied and how to interpret the results
of these studies, it is worth it to make some examples.
Lets suppose our aim is to develop a Trading System on 2 of the most important
Index Futures of the World: the miniSP500 (ES-067) and the DAX (GX-067).
Here in Fig.1 are the characteristics of these two markets:

Fig.1: Values for miniSp in USD and DAX future in EUR

To develop a Strategy, we first want to see how these Markets react to a common
Channel Breakout System.
A Channel Breakout System plots an Upper Level and a Lower Level on a Chart,
these levels reflect the Highest High of the last N periods and the Lowest Low of the
last N periods, the Market is entered at Breakout of one of these levels with a Stop
Order, examples are shown in Fig.2:

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Breakout
Breakout

Fig.2: Examples of Channel Breakout Trades on DAX Future

To understand how Markets react to an approach, it is common to run an

optimization with different values of parameters to see how results change. In this
case, an optimization is run changing the number of periods the Upper and Lower
Levels of the channel are calculated on (the run will be from 1 to 15 step 1 on a Daily
chart).
The results are analyzed in terms of Net Profit considering 45 USD RoundTurn
commissions+slippage cost on every transaction.
The rules can easily be programmed into a software, in Fig.3 an example:

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Fig.3: Rules of the Channel Breakout System

In Fig.4 the results for the DAX Future:

Fig.4:
DAX Future results Apart from
some gains with a very low
number of bars, there are
values leading to significant
profits, the Strategy seems to
improve performance increasing
the number of periods.

And in Fig. 5 the results for the e-miniSP500

Fig.5:
E-MiniSP500 results.
The very same approach leads
to a real disaster whatever
number of bars is used

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The above results lead one to consider that DAX Future can be traded using a
classical Trend Following approach while miniSP500 shows a clear tendency to go
CounterTrend. Actually, it appears evident that any trial to ride a Trend leads to
losses.
Now these results dont mean it is impossible to develop a CounterTrend Strategy
on DAX and a Trend Following Strategy on miniSP500, they simply suggest focusing
on the characteristics of these markets and develop a Strategy that adapts best to
these.
DAX Futures shows a tendency to keep going in a certain direction while miniSP500
shows a tendency to reverse moves. For these reasons the examples of Strategies
that will be shown from now on reflect these habits and try to fit into the moves of
these Markets. DAX Future will be handled looking for a Trend Following approach
while EminiSP500 will look for a reversal model.
Both models will be developed on daily bars.
Starting now on the DAX Future the first approach looks at the 15 Days Breakout
method described above, the Strategy simply enters the market at a 15 Days High
and reverses an eventual long position at a 15 Days Low, no Stop Loss is used and
positions are left only to reverse themselves. Fig.6 shows the performance report of
such an approach and Fig.7 shows the Equity Line of this System.

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Fig.6: Performance
Report for Trend
Following approach
on DAX Future

Fig.7: Equity Line of

the System. The
results are certainly
positive but the Equity
Line does not show a
really good shape

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To improve the results of this approach a consideration has to be made, a Breakout

like the one traded in the above, Strategy is normally stronger after a retracement.
To wait a few days before considering the level to break may help in getting a
stronger signal:
retracement

stronger breakout

weaker breakout

Fig.8: Breakout examples. A retracement before the breakout gives more strength to the move

Fig.8 shows how the Highest High has to be considered as a Breakout Level only if
it occurred a certain number of bars ago. A test about how big this retracement
should be is therefore performed analyzing results from 1 to 10 bars. In Fig.9 the
rules and in Fig.10 the results:

Fig.9: Rules to program the retracement: the input retr is used to run the optimization of this Setup

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Fig.10: Results of the optimization with different number of bars considered to determine the retracement.
The very best results are achieved with a huge retracement of 9 bars, yet a better choice to keep the
Strategy dynamic enough can be a 4 Days retracement, thats the value considered from now on

Considering therefore to wait for a retracement before trading a Breakout, we test

the System adding the condition to wait for a 4 Days Retracement before focusing
on any Breakout. In Fig.11 the new Performance Report and in Fig.12 the new Equity
Line of this System. Both show an improvement.

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Fig.11: The Net Profit

shows an increase
and also the
maximum Drawdown
shows a huge
reduction

Fig.12: The Equity

Line of the Strategy
shows a smoother
behavior

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To go further, a Profit Target and a Stop Loss can be inserted as new conditions.
To keep the Strategy parametric the Profit Target is calculated as a multiple of the
Average of the last 5 Days range, that is a multiple of the Average Range is added
to the Entry price (subtracted in case of a Short Position) and that calculates the level
to close the Trade, this value changes every day as does the Average Range over
the last 5 days. The four rules are shown in Fig.13

Fig.13: Examples of how the mentioned rules can be programmed

To test what could be a good choice in terms of multiple an optimization is run with
values from 1 to 10 step 0.5. In Fig.14 the results in terms of Net Profit:

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Fig.14: Net Profit using different

multiples of the Average Range.
To use 5 times the Average Range of
the last 5 days as a Profit Target
reveals itself to be the best choice, yet,
in sake of stability, 4,5 is a better
choice as its results are in between
good performance obtained with 4 and
5, using 5 is borderline as 5,5 shows
a sudden decrease in performance.

Choosing the multiplier for the Profit Target the same approach is followed to find
the multiplier for the Stop Loss. In Fig.15 the results.
Fig. 15: The best results would be
obtained without the use of Stop
Loss, the constant Net Profit for
values over 7 means that in those
cases the Stop Loss is never
triggered being the Position simply
reversed.

It is recommended to look also at the Drawdown values with the same optimization
to see if there are values showing more limited dips. In Fig.16 the results:

Fig.16: Drawdown values for different

multiples of the Average Range

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Looking at these results and considering that a Stop Loss in a Strategy may be also
a psychological help for the Trader, a value of 3,5 is used as a multiplier of the
Average Range over the last 5 days to determine the level at which a losing Position
is closed. 3,5 does not lead to the best Profits but it is the value which most limits
the Drawdown. The System could be further improved but it is not the purpose of
this study so, at this stage it can be considered completed. In Fig.17 the
Performance Report of this solution and in Fig.18 the Equity Line

Fig.17:
Performance
Report of the
solution with
Retracement and
Stop Loss as
well as Take
Profit

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Fig.18:
Equity Line of
the solution with
Retracement and
Stop Loss as
well as Take
Profit

This version of the Trading System is pretty acceptable and shows a very good
behavior throughout the years. Typical of a medium term Trend Following Strategy
is has also poor periods but it always recovers brilliantly.
Going now to look for a Strategy on the eminiSP500 the decision is to look after a
CounterTrend model, this means a Long Position will be opened if weakness in the
market are shown and a Short Position will find place in case of strength in the market.
We can identify weakness by a Close below a Moving Average, and find an entry
point at a portion of the Range below the Lowest Low of a period.
Strength, on the opposite side, can be identified by a Close above a Moving Average,
and an entry point can be calculated by adding a portion of the Range to the Highest
High of a period.
In Fig. 19 the Rules as they can be programmed.

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Fig.19: To study the behavior a number of parameters are used as inputs: avgc represents the period of
the Moving Average, LimB the period to calculate the Highest High and Lowest Low, multR is the portion
of Range to add or subtract to above mentioned levels

A first study is made optimizing the 3 parameters as follows:

Avgc from 1 to 15 step 1

LimB from 1 to 15 step 1
multR from 0 to 1 step 0.05 (this optimization performed in a second step)

In Fig.20 the results:

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Fig.20: Results of the optimization on 2 parameters. A glance at the histograms shows good results for low
values of LimB (1 or 2) and central values for avcg (between 3 and 10)

The area of good results identified here above can be seen in deeper detail. In Fig.21
there is a zoom into the area of LimB going from 1 to 2 and avgc moving from 3 to
10.

Fig.21: Zoom on the best results area

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LimB shows better results if kept equal to 1 (that its reference is taken on Low and
High of the last session) while avgc returns its best if equal to 6, yet it is better to
choose 5 as the results in this case are more stable (from 6 to 7 there is a big drop
while from 5 to 4 it is not too bad) as can be seen on a 2D chart represented in
Fig.22:

Fig.22: Changes in Net Profit with fixed LimB and variable avgc

Using the identified values a further optimization is run for multR and in Fig.23 the
results can be seen:

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Fig.23: Optimization on the multiple of the average Range to use as distance from highs and lows

These results show good values for 0 and 0.05, 0,05 is taken, this means 5% of the
Range is added to the High of last session to identify a Short Entry level and 5% of
last Range is subtracted from last sessions Low to find a Long Entry level.
With these parameters the Strategy has reached a good level of development and
could be considered completed and ready to be applied to markets. In Fig.25 the
Performance Report of such an approach and in Fig.26 the consequent Equity Line:

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Fig.24:
Performance Report
of the Counter-
Trend approach to
EminiSP500.
A Mean Reverting
Strategy produces
good results if
applied to
EminiSP500

Fig.25: Equity Line

of the Counter-
Trend approach to
EminiSP500

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The examples shown in this chapter are basic concepts used to develop Trading
Systems, only some aspects have been explained but they are a brick in the wall of
a solid knowledge in System Development. Markets have to be studied and the
results need interpretation, putting it all together can transform the wall of knowledge
into a cathedral.

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Money Management

Now the systems were there and each of them was showing its profits.
Also in books or on the internet I saw performance reports showing profits yet all
these things, my systems and the other systems had one thing in common:
The profits seemed to be too low
Many good ideas and profitable entries that, summed together, did not show the
amount of money that could be imagined when talking about trading:
Where should all the money come from?
It seems easy to understand that as those reports were calculated with a single unit
(either 1 futures contract or a 1000 shares lot) the only thing to do was to use more
units. Even though this concept was not so immediate in my mind, I got to it after a
while, but then a new, more important question came out immediately after:
How many units should I trade?
So I went back to studying and surfing the internet, I found on my way money
management concepts. These had nothing to do with stop loss or taking profit;
these were position sizing concepts, methods used to determine how much I should
put in each trade.
The matter was really interesting, I saw examples with coin tossing games and I was
astonished with the approach and its results; a new world opened its doors to me.
One that was based on math; not really hard to understand but still many concepts
and many possibilities to develop my own models I liked it so much that I deepened
my studies becoming a real specialist in money management. Some years later I
published my first book in Italian about position sizing. It was the book I would have
liked to have found when I first started to study the matter.

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Larry Williams

Now I had some systems and I was trading but there was still a missing piece, it
might seem irrelevant to most readers but it is not, I needed to get the real belief that
I could make a living out of my trading systems. With that sort of belief I would
become able to go on working in that direction with the right efforts and
concentration. Trading systems are a great help for trading but they need to be under
strict and constant control and they always need new friends or new places to visit
(new systems, new markets).
A great help came from the best trader I had ever met: Larry Williams. I attended a
seminar of his and learned many interesting concepts, I also got some of his systems
but I never used those systems, and those concepts were all more a sort of
imprinting rather than an input to my systems. Larry made more than 90.000 USD
in 3 days of his seminar; but it was not the amount of money that impressed me (he
was trading 1 Million Dollar), rather it was the whole environment he was moving in;
it was the way he involved us in his trading those days:
Larry showed me what a trader was
I really got the firm belief that it could be done, it was possible. Everything in his
words and in his work was showing that I was going along the right way, I got much
more than a system from Larry Williams:
I got myself back as a trader!

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Can Trading be Learned?

Considering my path, my experience, and the results I obtained, I can give a positive
answer to the question whether trading can be learned. I learned how to trade, this
was not an easy or immediate process, but once some important milestones are
posed, the development goes on nearly alone. I started from nothing and once I
gathered some important concepts the rest was just a building process with pure
man power, and this process was a self propeller with every next step coming in an
obvious way after the preceding.

Can Trading be Taught?

I may say:
Trading can be taught depending on the teacher.
There are many mentors and educators out there and they all offer good programs
but how many of them are also traders? How many of them passed through the real
digestion of the learning process? Only those who live the markets day after day
know what points need a particular care and what theories are actually only theories.
Reading about trading, there are many concepts written in good words that in the
real world hardly apply to the markets. Real traders know this, educators who dont
trade dont know it.
If you want to choose an educator, choose one who is demonstrated to be a winner
in trading, leave theories to books and go directly to the prices in the markets to
experience the right path to success.
You need trading education and that comes from traders!

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