Gilbert 1

Kory Gilbert

ENG 3020

Professor Trimble

5 November 2017

Housing Prices in Detroit

Introduction

The city of Detroit has faced a recent resurgence that has caused many changes, such as a

rise in housing prices. When talking about housing prices in Detroit, Matthew Goldstein states,

Citywide, the median value for a house here is $47,700, a 40 percent gain over the past two

years. While this statistic looks at housing prices in Detroit as a whole, I plan to research a

specific area of Detroit and a certain factor that of gentrification that may affect housing and rent

prices. My research question plans to investigate whether there is a relationship between median

age and the median housing sale prices and renting costs in the ZIP Code 48201, also known as

Midtown Detroit. This research is important because it can bring attention to how a certain

aspect of gentrification can affect housing and renting prices in Midtown Detroit. I propose that

there is a relationship between median age and housing and renting costs in Midtown Detroit.

Literature Review

Recent resurgence has brought new advantages to the city; however, it has not impacted

everyone positively. This process of resurgence and development has caused gentrification in

certain areas of Detroit. There is no single agreed upon definition of gentrification, but for this

paper, I will refer to Lance Freemans definition. Freeman defines gentrification as the process in

which declining neighborhoods facing disinvestment are reversed (463). Various research has

examined how gentrification has played a role in housing price variability, but my research
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question plans to examine how different aspects of gentrification affect housing and rent prices

in different areas of Detroit. I also plan to examine how changes in housing prices in Detroit

have affected certain people in the city. While previous research has examined gentrification as a

whole, I plan to explore the role of three different aspects of gentrification in housing prices and

its effects in Detroit in this literature review. These three different aspects include property

demand, property development, and displacement.

Property Demand

Housing Repair

Demand for housing is one characteristic of gentrification that is related to rising housing

costs. The first aspect of demand that I am going to focus on is how housing repair drives

demand for these properties. Housing repairs refers to the revitalization of purchased buildings

by new incoming businesses and entrepreneurs. Maya Stovall and Alex Hill examine this

concept in their article Blackness in Post-Bankruptcy Detroit: Racial Politics and Public

Discourse. The authors examine how the gentrification is impacting Detroit community

demographics in terms of the type of people that are coming into Detroit and the changes they

are making. One of these changes are renovations of buildings by business makers who are

coming into the city, as reflected by Phillip Cooley, Co-owner of Slows Barbecue in Corktown.

Cooley states, Rent is cheap here, but spaces in good condition are hard to find. So are

investors, which is why entrepreneurs often double as carpenters (Stovall & Hill 123). This

information is important in understanding the reasons and the development of change buildings

are going through. This article points to the fact that much of the rent before renovation was

cheap; therefore, it can be inferred that it was affordable to low-income residents. However,

much of the conditions do not meet the standards demanded by businesses, so many new buyers
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renovate the buildings, as indicated by entrepreneurs often double as carpenters (Stovall & Hill

123). Furthermore, the article explains that when these buildings are renovated, they are made to

the standards of incoming businesses and higher-income residents. This increases the demand of

these buildings that were once overlooked because of their conditions. Now that a demand exists

by people who have much higher income than those currently residing in those buildings with

previous lower rents, rent increases to an amount that is unaffordable by low-income residents.

This concept explained by this article is indicative of the effects of housing repair in growing

demands. However, these repairs and demands can negatively impact indigenous residents who

are unable to afford the rents. In addition to repairs done by business in order to meet certain

standards, new homeowners increase demand when they make repairs to their homes. While

repairs done by businesses and homeowners increases property value, there are other institutions

that play a role.

The local government in Detroit is also playing a role in increasing housing prices. The

Detroit Land Bank Authority is a government agency with the goal of creating more move-in-

ready homes into the marketplace and to boost property values in the process (Goldstein). The

Detroit Land Bank Authority does this by buying vacant or foreclosed property. Once the Detroit

Land Bank Authority buys the property, they make major renovations to the property using a $5

million grant from Quicken Loans. This indicates that it is not just wealthy individuals

renovating homes, but also the local government in Detroit. In addition, Reindl and Tanner point

to the impact of home repairs on housing prices in their article, Detroit Neighborhood Real

Estate Finally Going Up. Real estate brokers and experts in Detroit say that housing costs are

rising because investors with disposable income are purchasing houses and making repairs. The

authors explain that these repairs are made to attract tenants or buyers, or in other words, to
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increase demand (Reindl & Tanner). These points brought up by Stovall and Hill and Reindl and

Tanner draws to the conclusion that an increase in demand causes an increase in housing prices.

Youthification

The second aspect of demand that I am going to focus on is the increase of demand

caused by young creative people and young professionals who are coming into Detroit.

Youthification is a term dubbed by Markus Moos when he states that the process of

youthification occurs when there is an increase in the number of young adults in the population

of specific neighborhoods (2904). Moos also explains that as cities invest in infrastructure and

amenities, such as the new condominiums and the QLine transit system built in Detroit, demand

increases because young people want to take advantage of amenity-rich areas. Moos draws the

conclusion that housing developments experience an increase in cost as demand increases with

the growing popularity that amenity-rich areas face (2910). Chase M. Billingham agrees with

this as his article relates increasing housing costs with an influx of young professionals. They are

often attracted to the city by different incentives that are given by businesses who hire them,

indirectly impacting the rising housing prices due to their demand for property (Billingham 81).

These articles allude to the fact that as these demands increase from an able young population,

buildings are able to raise rents. However, this article must consider the impact this has on those

existing residents with lower-income. They feel the negative consequences that increasing

demands have on housing prices. In addition to young adults relocating to amenity-rich areas,

they also relocate based on their employer's location.

Multiple authors also agree that there is an increased demand for young professionals to

relocate closer to their employers, generally in downtown areas. Brian Doucet points to this idea

when he presents how Dan Gilberts company, Quicken Loans, has moved more than 15,000 of
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its employees downtown. Between 2000 and 2010, an increase of 55.8% was seen in the number

of households in Detroit (Doucet 642). Doucet also discusses the role Midtown Inc. plays in the

increased demand for housing in Midtown Detroit. Midtown Inc. is an organization that helps

young professionals move to midtown through financial incentives. Midtown Inc. offers

employees of three major companies in Detroit up to $20,000 cash to purchase property within

midtown. Furthermore, Midtown Inc. incentives are available to existing homeowners and

tenants for renovation and rent (Doucet 646). As a result of these incentives, there is a very low

vacancy rate in downtown Detroit. Apartment buildings in downtown are 99% occupied and new

units are renting for about $2,000 a month, which is about three times higher than rents in other

neighborhoods (Kusisto). Robin Runyan points to how University District has seen a spike in

home prices due to increasing demand. Using data from NeighborhoodX, a real-estate research

and analytics firm, Runyan found that sales in University District ranged from $43-48 per square

foot in 2012 and spiked to $85-92 in 2016; an increase of 91.7%. Furthermore, John Gallagher of

the Detroit Free Press attributes a rise in housing prices to two factors; demand for urban living

and a lack of for-sale product. This helps to explain why downtown Detroit is seeing such great

occupancy rates and directly relates demand with an increase in housing prices. Because young

professionals moving into the city with demand for housing have these incentives and

employment at major companies, they are able to afford rising housing prices by buildings who

increase the prices due to demand. However, this affects existing residents because not all have

access to these incentives and employments in the same way young professionals do, and they

are not able to meet the rising housing prices. This examination shows how demand for housing

causes an increase in cost of housing, but there are other factors that contribute to this increase.

Property Development
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Property development of commercial property is another aspect of gentrification that

plays a role in an increase of housing prices. Multiple authors agree that increased development

of urban cities play a role in increasing the values of surrounding homes. Dan Gilbert of Quicken

Loans has made an investment of $1 billion in downtown property and a $100 million upgrade in

downtown housing, at the expense of 127 existing units of low-income senior housing

(Clement & Kanai 375). This draws to the conclusion that property development in downtown

Detroit increased the property values and has caused low-income seniors to relocate due to

unaffordability. Dan Gilbert has also made other large investments, such as acquiring and

gaining 100% ownership of Greektown Casino Hotel in 2013 (Martinez). In a study designed by

Wiley and Walker, they examine how an increase in casino revenue causes an increase in

property values in a 5-mile radius surrounding the casino. Wiley and Walker use three different

models of commercial property prices in Detroit and utilize retail property sales data for Detroit

provided by CoStar Group with the goal describing the relationship between casino revenue and

surrounding property value. Their study found that a 1% increase in casino revenue is predicted

to lead to about a 1.236% increase in property values surrounding the casino (Walker & Wiley

110). Therefore, Wiley and Walker help to answer my question on whether property

development, a characteristic of gentrification, plays a role in increasing home values. Another

common type of land development in Detroit takes the form of urban greening. Urban greening

has many positive effects for the community, but it can also cause negative effects. Urban

greening and agricultural projects work to continue the process of gentrification by causing

rising rents, which involves the displacement of low-income individuals (Safransky 239). This

concludes that rising property values can have the effect of displacing low-income individuals in

Detroit.
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Property Displacement

Property demand and property development are aspects of gentrification that have had a

significant impact on the residents of Detroit, often resulting in issues such as property

displacement. Property displacement refers to the forced movement of people from their

residence due to city developments. Mark Jay investigates the reasons and magnitude of

displacement in his article "Policing the Poor in Detroit". He points to a lack of regard for

residents by government officials and newcomers. Jay cites that "more than a third of Detroit

homeowners... have lost their homes to foreclosure. He argues these foreclosures happen due to

paying inflated housing prices, pushing out people who cannot afford them as they are quickly

replaced by high-income families. This is due to the lack of assessment of property values by the

government. He also blames displacement of original resident on the lack of care of developers

as they revitalize Detroit. When they revitalize old buildings into luxury places, low-income

households who have been long time residents can no longer afford the prices and are dislocated

by higher-income newcomers (Jay). He argues that this is a lack of respect and care for much of

the original community who has worked in Detroit a lifetime. Alesia Montgomery also agrees

with the unfairness of displacement of residents from their properties as Detroit faces

revitalization. She explains that there is a lack of planning for displacement prevention from

downtown placemaking planners. Her article agrees with Jays because it also argues that Detroit

revitalization plans are in favor of the rich, resulting in consequences like displacement and loss

of old residents.

The extent of the effect of displacement is seen in the article Privatizing Detroit:

Residents Evicted and Displaced by Corporate Interests by Abayomi Azikiwe. In Azikiwes

article, he echoes the same concerns of Jay and Montgomery in that businesses in Detroit to
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revitalize the city are leaving the residents out of the equation. He cites U.S. Census data,

Approximately 237,000 people left the city during 2000-2010, which is 25 percent of the

population (Azikiwe). These displaced people are those of low-income who cannot afford the

high housing prices developed by businesses. For development, businesses are buying low-

income apartment buildings and forcefully urging low-income tenants out, displacing many from

properties they have lived in for several years. Similar to Jay, he also cites foreclosure due to

disregard of reassessment of property value for old residents, leading to inflated housing prices

that they cannot afford. This has forced many out of their homes, displacing them due to the high

housing prices from development efforts in Detroit.

While the research presented in this literature review examines different aspects of

gentrification as an effect on housing prices, it lacks evidence of a direct correlation between the

change in median age in Midtown Detroit to the change in housing and renting prices. In my

research, I seek to prove that there is a correlational relationship between median age and

housing and renting prices. I hypothesize that the median age will decrease in Midtown Detroit,

and as this value decreases, there will be an increase in median housing sale prices and median

monthly renting prices.

Methods

Research Design

In this study, I wanted to show if there is a relationship between the median age and the

change in rent and housing costs in Midtown Detroit between 2010 and 2015. For clarification

purposes, I used the zip-code 48201 when I researched for data, since this was the zip-code for

the area I analyzed. I chose age as a measure to relate to housing and renting costs because the

influx of youth into a city was an aspect of gentrification that increased demand for property;
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therefore, the demand increased property value. To show this relationship, I needed to collect

current and past primary and secondary sources that are able to interpret whether the

measurement of age had an affect on the change found in housing and rent prices in Midtown

Detroit during this period of time. Due to a lack of data points, I will not be analyzing my data

using statistical analysis to find a correlation between median age and median housing and rent

prices in Midtown Detroit. Instead, I will be making observations about what I find through

visual inspection of the data lines produced in Microsoft Excel.

Data collection

In order to find a relationship between median age and housing and renting costs in

Midtown Detroit, I first needed to find data on the past and current cost of buying and renting

property in this area. To do this, I used information found on Zillow.com to find the change in

housing and renting costs between 2010 and 2015. Zillow.com was a real estate market website

that provided research data about different housing markets to consumers. Zillow.com did not

have exact data on the median cost of buying a home in 48201, so I used the Zillow Home Value

Index, which is the median Zestimate valuation in an area. A Zestimate meant that Zillow.com

estimated the value of different properties by using various data collected through consumers,

research, and other real estate websites. The Zestimate took into consideration this data as well

different amenities and features of the properties. The different Zestimates collected were then

used to find the Zillow Home Value Index, which was the middle point of the all for housing

prices in 48201. This was a good secondary source for finding an estimate and trend line for

housing costs between 2010 and 2015. Next, I found data on renting prices using the Zillow Rent

Index for Midtown Detroit. This data showed the estimated median renting price in Midtown

Detroit. In order for my study to be more reliable, I decided to use Trulia.com to find further data
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on median sale prices for homes in Midtown Detroit. Trulia.com data only started from 2012, but

it provided useful data for my study. After finding data on housing and renting costs in Midtown

Detroit, I needed to find median age data for this area.

To determine the median age of people living in Midtown Detroit, I used 2010 U.S.

Census data and the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates between 2011 and 2015.

This was parallel to the reason of using the Zillow Home Value Index because it provided data

on housing and renting prices going back to the 2010 and 2011, similar to the Census data. I

chose to analyze the quantitative data I found by using descriptive statistics. I did this by

presenting line graphs of my data on housing and renting costs, along with a line graph showing

the change in Median age in Midtown Detroit. In addition, I presented this data on one graph, so

readers will be able to better interpret the relationship between median age and housing and

renting costs for Midtown Detroit between 2010 and 2015.

Results

According to data found in the 2010 Census and American Community Survey for 48021

(Midtown Detroit), the median ages between 2010 and 2015 were: 36.4 (2010), 39.1 (2011), 35.9

(2012), 33.7 (2013), 33.5 (2014), and 32 (2015) (U.S. Census Bureau). On Zillow.com, I found

that the Zillow Home Value Index for homes in 48201 between 2010 and 2015 were $75,800

(2010), $69,000 (2011), $76,000 (2012), $79,500 (2013), $74,700 (2014), and $87,900 (2015)

(Zillow). Zillow.com also included the Zillow Home Value Index for homes in 48201 in 2016

and 2017. The estimated median home value in 2016 was $99,400 and $102,000 in 2017. I have

displayed the Census data for median age and the Zillow Home Value Index in Midtown Detroit

in the graph below.

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Zillow Housing Sale Price Estimates vs Median Age in Midtown

Detroit
120000 45
40
100000
Median Sales Price
35

Median Age
80000 30
25
60000
20
40000 15
10
20000
5
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years

Housing Sale Prices Median Age

Linear (Housing Sale Prices) Linear (Median Age)

Using Trulia.com, I was able to find median sale prices for home in Midtown Detroit. I

thought this data would be useful as it provides additional values using a different calculation for

estimating median sales prices compared to Zillow.com. Their data for median sales prices

started in 2012 so I was unable to compare sales prices on Trulia.com to the Census data for

median age in 2010 and 2011. Using Trulia.com, I found that the median sale prices for homes

between 2012 and 2015 were $120,000 (2012), $192,500 (2013), $266,724 (2014), and $304,000

(2015). Trulia also displayed the estimated median housing sales price for 2016 as $235,000 and

$365,000 in 2017. In the graph below, I have compared the median sales price and median age

for Midtown Detroit using the data from Trulia.com.

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Trulia Housing Sale Price Estimates vs Median Age in

Midtown Detroit
400,000 40
350,000 35

Median Sales Price

300,000 30

Median Age
250,000 25
200,000 20
150,000 15
100,000 10
50,000 5
0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Axis Title

Housing Sale Prices Median Age

Linear (Housing Sale Prices) Linear (Median Age)

While some people are buying homes in Midtown, many decide to rent in this area. Using

the Zillow Rent Index for Midtown Detroit found on Zillow.com, I found that the median

estimated monthly rent costs between 2010 and 2015 were $944 (2010), $811 (2011), $801

(2012), $934 (2013), $948 (2014), $948 (2015). In addition, Zillow also displayed the estimated

median monthly rent prices in 2016 as $914 and $1,072 in 2017. In the graph below, I compare

the estimated monthly rent prices produced by Zillow.com with the median ages in Midtown

Detroit.
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Zillow Median Monthly Rent Price vs Median Age in Midtown

Detroit
1200 45
40
Monthly Rent PRice 1000
35

Median Age
800 30
25
600
20
400 15
10
200
5
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Axis Title

Monthly Rent Costs Median Age

Linear (Monthly Rent Costs) Linear (Median Age)

Analysis

The results I found supported my hypothesis because there is an apparent negative

correlation between age and housing and renting costs in Midtown Detroit with median age

decreasing and housing and renting costs increasing. As shown with the Census data, the median

age in Midtown Detroit decreased from 36.4 years old in 2010 to 32 years old in 2015. In other

words, Midtown Detroit experienced about a 12.1% decrease in median age from 2010 to 2015.

This is indicative of the fact that the people moving into Midtown Detroit are younger than

previous years. This is an interesting observation as it relates to the change in housing and

renting prices seen in Midtown Detroit.

Using the Zillow Home Value Index information on Zillow.com, I found that the

estimated median housing sale price rose from $75,000 in 2010 to $87,900 in 2015. This shows

that there was about a 13.8% increase in estimated median sale price of homes in Midtown

Detroit. After displaying the change in these two variables on the graph titled Zillow Housing

Sale Price Estimates vs Median Age in Midtown Detroit, an interesting trend appears. Through

visual inspection of this graph, it can be inferred that there appears to be a negative correlation
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between these two variables as median age decreases and median housing sale prices increase.

Although there is no Census data for 2016 and 2017, the median housing sale prices continued to

increase 13.8% from 2015 to 2017 and the trend line for the median age indicates that it will

continue to decrease. These findings support my hypothesis that as median age decreases, the

median housing sale prices will increase in Midtown Detroit.

Based on the calculations used by Trulia.com to find the estimated median housing sale

prices, I found that their estimated values for median housing sale prices increased from

$120,900 to $304,000 in Midtown Detroit. This shows that there was about a 60.2% increase in

median housing sale prices from 2012 to 2015. While Trulia.com does not have data for 2010

and 2011, the graph titled Trulia Housing Sale Price Estimates vs Median Age in Midtown

Detroit shows an interesting relationship between median age and median housing sale prices in

Midtown Detroit. Through visual inspection of the graph, it can be inferred that there is a

negative correlation between these two variables. Although there is no Census data for 2016 and

2017, the median housing sale prices continue to increase from $304,000 in 2015 to $365,000 in

2017; about a 16.7% increase. While there is a continuous increase in median housing sale

prices, the trend line for median age continues to decrease, which is still indicative of a negative

correlation. These findings found using data from Trulia.com also support my hypothesis that as

the median age decreases, the median housing sale prices will increase in Midtown Detroit.

Using the Zillow Rent Index for Midtown Detroit found on Zillow.com, I found that

estimated monthly rent prices made a slight increase from $944 in 2010 to $948 in 2015. In other

words, there was about a 0.42% increase in monthly rent prices in Midtown Detroit during this

time period. As shown in the graph titled Zillow Median Monthly Rent Costs vs Median Age in

Midtown Detroit, it appears there is a weak correlation between median age and median
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monthly rent price from 2010 to 2015. While there was only a 0.42% increase from 2010 to

2015, there was about a 11.6% increase in median monthly rent prices from 2015 to 2017.

Although there is no Census data of median age for 2016 and 2017, the decreasing trend line for

median age and the increasing median monthly renting prices suggest that the negative

correlation is getting stronger as the years progress. To further explain, even though there is a

weak correlation between 2010 and 2015, the stronger negative correlation between 2015 and

2017 conveys that this correlation has become stronger in recent years. To some extent, these

findings support my hypothesis that as median age decreases, the median monthly rent prices

increase in Midtown Detroit. Although there appears to be a negative correlation between

median age and median monthly rent prices, it is clearly not as strong as the relationships

previously discussed. Since the Census data and the Zillow Rent Index show a weak correlation

from 2010 to 2015, I would need to know the Census data for median age for 2016 and 2017 to

make a definitive claim about whether these findings fully support my hypothesis.

The findings from my research support a concept by Markus Moos and Chase Billingham

that states specific neighborhoods are experiencing an influx of younger demographics. The

reason these younger people are moving into these neighborhoods is because of the amenities the

city can offer (Moos 2904) and their desire to live closer to their place of business (Billingham

81). Moos and Billingham state that this increased demand by younger demographics looking for

housing in the city causes the housing and renting prices to increase. This increase in price may

be due to the increased willingness to pay higher amounts by younger people to live in the city.

This increased willingness for younger people to pay higher amounts may cause landlords and

property owners to charge higher amounts. This increased demand by younger demographics to

live in the city is an aspect of gentrification that has caused housing and renting prices to
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increase to greater amounts than years past. My findings through this research support this

concept as evidenced by the fact that as median age of people living in Midtown Detroit

decreases, the median housing and renting prices increases.

Discussion

While my findings suggest that there is a negative correlation between median age and

median housing and rent prices in Midtown Detroit, my study faces some important limitations.

The first limitation that my study faced is that the United States Census Bureau has yet to publish

demographic data for 2016 and 2017. Since this information has not been published yet, I had

nothing to compare the median housing sale prices and median monthly sale prices in 2016 and

2017 to, except for the trendline generated from the median ages from 2010 to 2015. Knowing

the median ages for 2016 and 2017 would further evidence my analysis that there is a negative

correlation between median age and median housing sale prices and median monthly sale prices

in Midtown Detroit.

A second limitation to my study is based on the estimates for median housing sale prices

provided by Zillow.com and Trulia.com. An important characteristic of these values is that they

are the median in the set of data. This may be the reason the housing prices reported on

Trulia.com were much larger than the housing prices reported on Zillow.com. These websites

may have collected data using different samples which may change what the median sales price

is. For example, Trulia.com may have used a sample of homes sold in Midtown that were overall

much more expensive than the homes in the sample data used by Zillow.com. If this was the

case, this may explain why the median housing price is much higher on Trulia.com. For further

research on this topic, it would be more accurate to use the mean, or average values for housing

sale prices in Midtown as this would be a more accurate representation of the data. Doing this
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would consider housing prices on both ends of the data set as opposed to just using the middle

point of the data, which may not be the most accurate representation of the housing prices in

Midtown.

Another limitation to this study is that my study did not take into account a third variable

that may impact my data. To clarify, there may have been another variable besides median age

that is the cause of increasing median housing sale prices and median monthly renting prices. I

believe this limitation helps to propose new questions that can be used to further investigate this

topic. For instance, it would be helpful to know what the annual income for the people moving

into Midtown Detroit. This information would be helpful because it would show that it is not just

the age of people moving in that is important, but their ability to pay for housing in Midtown. An

increased ability to pay for housing could be a factor as to why living costs are increasing in

Midtown Detroit. Another important variable that would be useful to know for further research is

whether there is a substantial amount of renovations being done to property in Midtown Detroit.

If research is able to find that there is an increase in renovations being done to property in

Midtown Detroit, then there may be a connection between young people moving into this area to

renovate newly bought or rented property and a rise in housing and renting prices.

Although this research faces certain limitations and raises questions for further study, it

points to interesting characteristics regarding the relationship between median age and median

housing sale prices and median monthly renting prices. Using primary data, such as the U.S.

Census, and secondary data, such as marketplace trends reported by Zillow.com and Trulia.com,

I was able to find a negative correlation between median age and median housing sale prices and

median renting prices in Midtown Detroit. These findings supported my hypothesis that as
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median age decreased, the median cost of buying or renting in Midtown Detroit would increase.
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