Cross Asset

Technical Vista

June 12, 2012

International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION Important Disclaimer in page 2
 Disclaimer

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2
 Risk Sentiment

Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index US Risk Sentiment Index

0,6
0,6
Ris k Appetite Ris k Appetite

0,35
0,35

0,1 0,1

-0,15 -0,15

-0,4 -0,4

-0,65 -0,65

-0,9 -0,9

-1,15 -1,15
Ris k Avers ion Ris k Avers ion
-1,4 -1,4

8 /0 7
1 0 /0 7
1 2 /0 7
2 /0 8
4 /0 8
6 /0 8
8 /0 8
1 0 /0 8
1 2 /0 8
2 /0 9
4 /0 9
6 /0 9
8 /0 9
1 0 /0 9
1 2 /0 9
2 /1 0
4 /1 0
6 /1 0
8 /1 0
1 0 /1 0
1 2 /1 0
2 /1 1
4 /1 1
6 /1 1
8 /1 1
1 0 /1 1
1 2 /1 1
2 /1 2
4 /1 2
6 /1 2
8 /0 7
1 0 /0 7
1 2 /0 7
2 /0 8
4 /0 8
6 /0 8
8 /0 8
1 0 /0 8
1 2 /0 8
2 /0 9
4 /0 9
6 /0 9
8 /0 9
1 0 /0 9
1 2 /0 9
2 /1 0
4 /1 0
6 /1 0
8 /1 0
1 0 /1 0
1 2 /1 0
2 /1 1
4 /1 1
6 /1 1
8 /1 1
1 0 /1 1
1 2 /1 1
2 /1 2
4 /1 2
6 /1 2 Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

Eurozone risk sentiment has deteriorated mainly due to Greek situation and Spain banking sector
recapitalisation needs.
Speculation over possible action by major central banks provides some support for risk appetite.
3
 EUR/USD
Daily QEUR= 2/16/2012 - 6/19/2012 (UTC) Weekly QEUR= 7/18/1999 - 2/24/2013 (UTC)
0.0% 1.6034
Price Price
USD USD
1.35 1.5
1.45
1.34
1.4
100.0% 1.3284 1.33
1.35
1.32
38.2% 1.3051 1.3
1.31
76.4% 1.3048 1.25
1.3 50.0% 1.213 1.2
61.8% 1.2902 1.29
1.15
1.28 61.8% 1.1208
1.1
1.27 Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid 38.2% 1.2666 1.05
6/12/2012, 1.2466, 1.2530, 1.2449, 1.2498 1.26 6/17/2012, 1.2657, 1.2668, 1.2449, 1.2497
76.4% 1.0068 1
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200 SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
1.25 6/17/2012, 1.3498
6/12/2012, 1.3223 0.95
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55 1.24 SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
0.9
6/12/2012, 1.2917 6/17/2012, 1.3036
0.0% 1.2285 1.23 0.85
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21 100.0% 0.8226
6/12/2012, 1.2562 .1234 .1234
MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
6/12/2012, -0.0117, -0.0137 Value 6/17/2012, -0.0219, -0.0171 Value
USD USD
-0.01 -0.03
.1234 .1234
20 27 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 2000 2010

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

EUR/USD mid-term downwards trend remains in place.

Support levels at $1.2384 (4/6/12 low) and at $1.2286 (1/6/12 low). Quite strong support at
$1.2130 (50% retracement level: $0.8225-$1.6038).
Resistance levels at $1.2670 and $1.2902 (Fibonacci retracement levels 38.2% & 61.8%:
$1.3283-$1.2286). Strong resistance at the area of $1.3050 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level:
4
$1.3283-$1.2286).
 USD/JPY
Daily QJPY= 10/4/2011 - 6/26/2012 (UTC)

0.0% 84.17 Price

/USD
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 21
6/12/2012, 79.31 83
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 55 23.6% 82.24 82
6/12/2012, 80.35
38.2% 81.05 81
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
6/12/2012, 78.69 50.0% 80.08 80
Cndl, QJPY=, Bid
6/12/2012, 79.39, 79.68, 61.8%
79.13, 79.54 79.12 79

76.4% 77.93 78

77

100.0% 76 76
.12
Value ADX, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
/USD 6/12/2012, 22.00
40 PlusDI, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 20.00
20 MinusDI, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 24.00
.12
17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
USD/JPY remains in downwards trend.
Support at 78.68 (200 DMA) and at 77.93 (Fibonacci retracement levels 76.4%: 76 - 84.17).
5 Resistance at the area of 80.40 (2/5/12 high & 55 DMA) and at 81.77 (20/4/12 high).
 EUR/JPY
Daily QEURJPY= 10/4/2011 - 6/18/2012 (UTC)

Price
JPY
112
100.0% 111.43
111

110
109
108
76.4% 107.69
107
106
61.8% 105.37
105
104
50.0% 103.5
103

Cndl, QEURJPY=, Bid 102

38.2% 101.63
6/12/2012, 98.95, 99.78, 98.68, 99.30 101
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
6/12/2012, 104.04 100
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 55 23.6% 99.31 99
6/12/2012, 103.82
98
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 21
6/12/2012, 99.63 97
96
0.0% 95.57
.12
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
MACD, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
6/12/2012, -1.25, -1.56 Value
JPY

.12
10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18
Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12

EUR/JPY is in upwards short term corrective reaction as signaled by MACD.

Resistance levels at 101.63 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement: 111.43 95.57), at 104.05 (200
DMA) and at 105.37 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 111.43 95.57).
6
Support level for EUR/JPY at 95.57 (1/6/12 low).
 GBP/USD
Daily QGBP= 10/5/2011 - 6/20/2012 (UTC)

Cndl, QGBP=, Bid Price

100.0% 1.6301
6/12/2012, 1.5474, 1.5522, 1.5453, 1.5496 USD
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
6/12/2012, 1.5756 1.62
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 21
6/12/2012, 1.5614
1.61
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 55
76.4% 1.6057
6/12/2012, 1.5880
1.6

61.8% 1.5905 1.59

1.58
50.0% 1.5783

1.57
38.2% 1.5661
1.56

23.6% 1.551 1.55

1.54

1.53
0.0% 1.5265
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis .1234
RSI, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 38.746 Value
USD

30
.123
10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18
Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12

GBP/USD is attempting to rebound after posting 5-month low ($1.5265) on June 1.

Resistance level is found at $1.5661 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement: $1.6301 $1.5265). A
possible further reaction of GBP/USD would meet resistance at the area of $1.5755 (200 DMA)
and at $1.5905 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: $1.6301 $1.5265).
7
Support is placed at $1.5400 (8/6/12 low) and at $1.5265 (1/6/12 low).
 EUR/GBP
Daily QEURGBP= 9/28/2011 - 6/22/2012 (UTC)

Price
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
GBP
6/12/2012, 0.8391
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 55 0.875
6/12/2012, 0.8132 0.87
Cndl, QEURGBP=, Bid 0.865
6/12/2012, 0.8054, 0.8079, 0.8049, 0.806
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 21 0.86
6/12/2012, 0.8044
0.855

100.0% 0.8505 0.85

0.845

0.84
76.4% 0.8373
0.835

61.8% 0.8292 0.83

0.825
50.0% 0.8226
0.82
38.2% 0.816 0.815

0.81
23.6% 0.8078
0.805

0.8
0.0% 0.7947 0.795
.1234
RSI, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 50.533 Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis Value
GBP

40
20
.123
03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18
Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12

EUR/GBP is into consolidation mode, with weak upside bias. Medium term strong downwards
trend remains in place.
Resistance level at 0.8160 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement: 0.8505 0.7947), at 0.8221
(25/4/12 high) and at 0.8290 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 0.8505 0.7947).
8 Support levels are found at the area of 0.7950-70 (16/5/12 & 30/5/12 low) and at 0.7807
(31/10/08 low).
 USD/CHF
Daily QCHF= 3/8/2010 - 7/6/2012 (UTC)

100.0% 1.173 Price

/USD

1.12
Cndl, QCHF=, Bid
6/12/2012, 0.9631, 0.9645, 0.9587, 0.9598
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 55 1.08
76.4% 1.0634 6/12/2012, 0.9305
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 200 1.04
6/12/2012, 0.9182
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 21
61.8% 0.9956 1
6/12/2012, 0.9558

0.96

0.92

38.2% 0.886 0.88

0.84
23.6% 0.8181
0.8

0.76

0.72
0.0% 0.7085
.1234
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
RSI, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 55.857 Value
/USD

.123
A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012

USD/CHF has entered into upwards trend since mid-May.

Resistance is found at 0.9771 CHF (1/6/12 high) and at 0.9956 CHF (61.8% Fibonacci retracement:
1.173 0.7085).
9
Support levels at 0.9363 CHF (21/5/12 low) and at the area of 0.9180 CHF (200 DMA).
 (WTI) 1stst Month Future
Light Crude Oil (WTI)
Daily QCLc1 8/26/2011 - 6/20/2012 (NYC)

0.0% 110.55 Price

USD
Bbl

105

23.6% 102.15 102

99

38.2% 96.95
96

50.0% 92.75 93

Cndl, QCLc1, Last Trade 90

61.8% 88.55 6/12/2012, 81.18, 82.29, 81.07, 82.00
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 200 87
6/12/2012, 96.41
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 55
84
76.4% 83.35 6/12/2012, 97.21
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 21
6/12/2012, 88.41 81

78

75
100.0% 74.95
.12
RSI, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
6/12/2012, 17.838 Value
USD
Bbl
30
.123
01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18
Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 [Delayed]

Crude oil (WTI) remains in downwards pressure. However, WTI has reached oversold territory as
indicated by RSI (9 days: 18 & 9 weeks: 21).
Support levels at $79.10/brl (6/10/11 low ) and at $74.95brl (4/10/11 low).
10 Resistance levels are placed at $88.40/brl (21 DMA), at $92.20/brl (29/5/12 high) and at
$96.40/brl (200 DMA).
 Spot Gold
Weekly QXAU= 6/1/2008 - 7/29/2012 (UTC)
Price
100.0% 1,920.27 USD
Ozs

1,800

1,700

76.4% 1,627.58
1,600

1,500

61.8% 1,446.51
1,400

50.0% 1,300.17 1,300

1,200
38.2% 1,153.82
1,100

1,000
23.6% 972.75
Cndl, QXAU=, Bid
900
6/17/2012, 1,592.70, 1,607.95, 1,582.49, 1,590.15
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 21
6/17/2012, 1,660.28 800
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 55
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
6/17/2012, 1,664.21
Ichi, QXAU=, Bid, 9, 26, 52, 26, 26 700
0.0% 680.06
6/17/2012, KinSen 1,656.12, TknSen 1,599.10, ChkuSp 1,590.15, SkuSpA 1,627.61, SkuSpB 1,699.16
.12
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12

Gold spot price is into consolidation mode in the short term. Gold long term upwards trend was
broken for the first time since 2008.
Support level appears at the area of $1,522/Oz (19/2/12 low) and at $1,446.51/Oz (61.8%
Fibonacci retracement: $680.06 $1,920.27).
11 Resistance levels are placed at the area of $1,665/Oz (55 WMA & 30/4/12 high) and at the area of
$1,714/Oz (9/3/12 high).
 S&P 500
Daily Q.SPX 8/23/2011 - 6/26/2012 (CHG)

0.0% 1,422.52 Price

USD

1,400

1,380

1,360

23.6% 1,340.46 1,340

1,320

1,300
38.2% 1,289.69
1,280

1,260
50.0% 1,248.66
1,240

1,220
61.8% 1,207.63
1,200

Cndl, Q.SPX, Last Trade 1,180

6/11/2012, 1,325.72, 1,335.52, 1,307.73, 1,308.93
SMA, Q.SPX, Last Trade(Last), 200 1,160
76.4% 1,156.87
6/11/2012, 1,289.07
SMA, Q.SPX, Last Trade(Last), 55 1,140
6/11/2012, 1,359.75
SMA, Q.SPX, Last Trade(Last), 21 1,120
6/11/2012, 1,314.27
1,100

100.0% 1,074.81 .12

29 06 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 27 03 09 17 23 30 06 13 21 27 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 29 04 11 18 25
Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 [Delayed]

The S&P 500 remains in corrective mode as indicated by some daily trend indicators (55, 21 DMA
and ADX, DMI).
Support level for S&P 500 at 1,267 (4/6/12 low), at 1,250 and 1,208 (50% & 61.8%: retracement
12 levels: 1,075-1,422).
Source: Reuters, International Markets Analysis
Resistance levels at 1,360 (55 DMA) and at 1,415 (1/5/12 high).
 DAX
Daily Q.GDAXI 8/3/2011 - 6/22/2012 (FFT)
0.0% 7,194.467
Price
EUR
7,000
6,900

6,800

6,700
23.6% 6,668.532
6,600

6,500

6,400
38.2% 6,343.165
6,300

6,200

50.0% 6,080.198 6,100

6,000
5,900
61.8% 5,817.23 5,800

5,700

5,600
SMA, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 200
76.4% 5,491.864 5,500
6/12/2012, 6,227.385
SMA, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 55 5,400
6/12/2012, 6,544.022
5,300
Cndl, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade
6/12/2012, 6,141.920, 6,211.140, 6,139.470, 6,187.190 5,200
SMA, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 21
5,100
6/12/2012, 6,239.720
5,000
100.0% 4,965.929
.123
RSI, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
6/12/2012, 47.165 Value
EUR

30
.123
08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 27 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 05 12 19 26 02 10 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18
Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12

DAX index is still dominated by downside pressure. A possible further extensive downwards move
may produce oversold signal.
Support levels are found at 5,914.43 (5/6/12 low), at 5,817 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 4,965
13 7,194) and at 5,637 (20/12/11 low).
Resistance levels at 6,441.26 (29/5/12 high) and at the area of 6,545 (55 DMA).
 US 10YR Government Bond Yield
Daily QUS10YT=RR 1/28/2011 - 8/28/2012 (UTC)

Yield

3.6

3.2

BarOHLC, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1

2.8
6/12/2012, 1.5826, 1.6250, 1.5809, 1.6165
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21
6/12/2012, 1.6723 100.0% 2.3928 2.4
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
6/12/2012, 1.8808 61.8% 2.0267 2
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200 38.2% 1.8006
6/12/2012, 1.9819 1.6
0.0% 1.4346
.1234
RSI, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 44.323 Value

30
.123
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
US 10year government bond yield is reacting mildly upwards from oversold levels (RSI 9 days on
12/6: 44, RSI 9 days on 1/6: 18 points).
Resistance at 1.73% (11/6/12 high). Further resistance at 1.80% (Fibonacci retracement level
38.2%: 2.40%-1.44%) and strong resistance at 1.88% (55 DMA).
14
Support area for US 10year government bond yield at 1.44% (historic low).
 German 10YR
10YR Government
Government Bond
Bond Yield
Yield
Daily QDE10YT=RR 5/5/2008 - 8/28/2012 (UTC)

Cndl, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1 Yield

6/12/2012, 1.296, 1.387, 1.296, 1.382
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55 4.4
6/12/2012, 1.569
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200
6/12/2012, 1.831 4
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21
6/12/2012, 1.353 3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

1.6

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
.123
RSI, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 55.169 Value
60
30
.123
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The German 10 year government bond yield remains in strong downwards trend.
Support placed at 1.127% (historic low).
15 Resistance levels are found at 1.57% (55 DMA) and at the area of 1.83% (200 DMA).
 Italy
Italy 10YR
10YR Government
Government Bond Yield
Daily QIT10YT=RR 10/31/2011 - 6/21/2012 (UTC)

100.0% 7.509
Yield

Cndl, QIT10YT=RR, Yield_1 7.2

6/12/2012, 6.036, 6.192, 6.010, 6.109
7
SMA, QIT10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21
76.4% 6.839 6/12/2012, 5.864
6.8
SMA, QIT10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
6/12/2012, 5.621
6.6
SMA, QIT10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200
61.8% 6.425 6/12/2012, 5.921
6.4

6.2
50.0% 6.09
6

5.8
38.2% 5.755
5.6

5.4
23.6% 5.341
5.2

4.8
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
0.0% 4.672 .123
RSI, QIT10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/12/2012, 67.630 Value
60

30

.123
31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 05 12 19 26 02 10 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18
Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12

Italy 10 year government bond yield is forming an upwards trend.

Resistance levels are found at 6.425% and 6.84% (61.8% & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement levels:
16 7.51% - 4.67%).
Support placed at 5.60% (55 DMA) and at 5.52% (25/5/12 low).
 Correlation Matrix
60 Days (Percentage Change) Correlation Matrix
Equity Index Commodities Risk Aversion Index
S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC World CRB GOLD WTI RA EU RA US
Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m
DXY -0,4174 -0,4718 -0,5129 -0,4746 -0,5285 -0,5300 -0,5165 -0,4414 -0,3895 -0,4944 -0,4285 -0,3724 0,2581 0,3384 0,4571 0,4083
EUR/USD 0,3966 0,4557 0,4502 0,4385 0,4545 0,5154 0,5266 0,4490 0,4663 0,5433 0,3856 0,3855 -0,1843 -0,2753 -0,3688 -0,3701
USD/JPY 0,4054 0,3657 0,3545 0,3341 0,4289 0,4047 0,2512 0,2698 -0,3393 -0,1817 0,2018 0,2095 -0,3126 -0,2962 -0,2274 -0,1506
GBP/USD 0,6808 0,4818 0,4312 0,4549 0,5117 0,5192 0,4654 0,3692 0,1640 0,2329 0,4508 0,3333 -0,3103 -0,4168 -0,3465 -0,2627
USD/CHF -0,3932 0,1477 -0,4566 -0,4005 -0,4560 -0,4800 -0,5411 -0,4542 -0,4693 -0,5652 -0,4021 -0,3873 0,1872 0,2389 0,3678 0,3475
EUR/CHF 0,6628 0,0640 -0,1229 0,0694 -0,0912 0,0322 -0,1767 -0,1466 -0,0513 -0,2629 -0,1706 -0,1075 0,0380 -0,1133 0,0629 0,0119
EUR/GBP 0,0228 0,0725 0,1376 0,0748 0,0529 0,1104 0,2062 0,1945 0,4691 0,4763 0,0318 0,1545 0,0917 0,0999 -0,1276 -0,2131
EUR/JPY 0,5612 0,5931 0,5597 0,5548 0,6194 0,6645 0,5373 0,5129 0,0665 0,2216 0,4062 0,4218 -0,3514 -0,4161 -0,4144 -0,3676
Bund Fut. -0,5687 -0,5053 -0,7394 -0,6277 -0,6041 -0,5079 -0,5196 -0,4076 0,0208 -0,0405 -0,3752 -0,3243 0,5652 0,6816 0,3928 0,1098

Government Bonds
2Y US 10Y US 2Y GE 10Y GE 2Y UK 10Y UK 2Y JN 10Y JN
Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m
DXY 0,0711 0,0082 -0,1748 -0,0819 -0,2992 -0,2752 -0,4879 -0,2937 -0,3538 -0,2238 -0,5200 -0,1838 -0,0447 0,0117 0,0224 0,0485
EUR/USD 0,0702 0,1387 0,3392 0,2128 0,4120 0,3256 0,5261 0,3312 0,3750 0,2256 0,4811 0,1499 -0,0142 0,0286 -0,1586 -0,0192
USD/JPY 0,3959 0,4548 0,5923 0,5070 0,1665 0,2824 0,5013 0,3571 0,1624 -0,0134 0,4470 0,3421 0,1983 0,0230 0,2826 0,2624
GBP/USD -0,0482 0,0731 0,3064 0,2054 0,2357 0,3687 0,5503 0,4331 0,4551 0,4672 0,6082 0,4456 0,0039 -0,1443 -0,0466 -0,1998
USD/CHF -0,0515 -0,0528 -0,3284 -0,1319 -0,3969 -0,2611 -0,5006 -0,2413 -0,3578 -0,1324 -0,4666 -0,0734 0,0049 -0,0785 0,1518 -0,0020
EUR/CHF 0,0710 0,3795 0,0119 0,3320 0,0131 0,2385 0,1355 0,3484 0,0441 0,4122 0,0425 0,3417 -0,1148 -0,2720 -0,0142 -0,0806
EUR/GBP 0,1543 0,1076 0,1162 0,0486 0,3096 0,0202 0,1080 -0,0428 0,0002 -0,2271 -0,0244 -0,3067 -0,0133 0,2099 -0,1551 0,2147
EUR/JPY 0,3343 0,4482 0,6576 0,5394 0,3994 0,4398 0,7201 0,5026 0,3719 0,1411 0,6511 0,3688 0,1408 0,0400 0,1069 0,1976
Bund Fut. -0,4123 -0,4768 -0,6278 -0,6457 -0,3211 -0,7490 -0,8802 -0,8660 -0,3823 -0,4866 -0,7210 -0,7555 -0,0547 0,0141 0,0064 -0,2060

Significant negative correlation Significant positive correlation

EUR is still positively correlated with risky assets. The recent rebound of EUR/JPY was in parallel
with some improvement in risk sentiment.
USD/JPY shows strong correlation with US government bond yields.
GBP/USD correlation with equity prices has risen.
17
Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis
 Technical Analysis Synopsis

MA's Overbought/
Percent Change to Date Range MACD Signal
Last_Price Monthly trend crossover Oversold 3 Months trend
(Daily)
Week Month Year Upper Lower signal Singal (Daily)
DXY Dollar Index 82,428 -0,12 -0,76 2,78 Uptrend Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
EUR/USD 1,2505 -0,09 1,14 -3,51 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
GBP/USD 1,5536 0,41 0,86 -0,04 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
USD/JPY 79,59 0,13 1,60 3,37 Range Trading 80,45 78,18 Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
FX

USD/CHF 0,9605 0,08 -1,13 2,32 Uptrend Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
EUR/GBP 0,8049 -0,51 0,29 -3,54 Uptrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
EUR/JPY 99,53 0,06 2,70 -0,13 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
EUR/CHF 1,20108 -0,03 -0,01 -1,31 Uptrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
S&P 500 INDEX 1308,93 -1,26 -0,11 4,08 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr 2150,21 0,28 1,46 -7,20 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
Equities

DAX INDEX 6175,28 0,68 -1,46 4,65 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
CAC 40 INDEX 3054,48 0,09 1,24 -3,33 Uptrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
NIKKEI 225 8536,72 0,92 -0,07 0,96 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
Cmdties

Crude Oil 1m Future 82,5 -1,88 -4,63 -16,50 Downtrend Down Oversold Down Signal Range Trading
GOLD SPOT $/OZ 1591,3 -0,14 1,98 1,76 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
Copper Furture 1M 334,2 1,75 -0,68 -2,72 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
10Y GE Govt Yield 1,374 3,54 14,67 -24,77 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
Fixed Incom e

2Y GE Govt Yield 0,073 69,77 -49,31 Range Trading 0,0918 -0,0015 Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
10Y US Govt Yield 1,6114 -1,46 3,44 -14,11 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
2Y US Govt Yield 0,2699 1,50 3,09 12,88 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
EUR 5 Yr IRS 1,2957 2,20 11,40 -24,59 Uptrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
US 5 Yr IRS 1,003 -1,81 0,25 -18,17 Range Trading 1,1454 0,9690 Down No Signal Down Signal Range Trading

Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

18
 210-326 8265 marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos premoundos@alpha.gr

Maria Koutouzi mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA ikouravelos@alpha.gr
Konstantinos Anathreptais kanathreptakis@alpha.gr