A seismic gap in Vrancea

(Romania) -Where and when will

the next M7 intermediate-depth
earthquake occur?
N. Hurukawa
International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake
Engineering (IISEE), Building Research Institute,
Tsukuba, Japan
M. Popa and M. Radulian
National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) Bucharest,
Romania

2006.11.10 UJNR at Tokushima

VRANCEA, ROMANIA

USGS
 Earthquake
Prediction in
Romania
Purcaru (1974, 1979)
Enescu et al. (1974)

Three seismic active time in each

century
P1: 0-10
P2: 30-40
P3: 70-90

1977 (Mw7.5) Eq was predicted.

The next one will be in 2000-2010.
 Purpose
Accurate relocation of intermediate depth
earthquakes in Romania

Obtain relative location of past large
earthquakes and recent small ones.
1940 (Mw7.7), 1977 (Mw7.5), 1986 (Mw7.2),
1990 (Mw6.9) Earthquakes

Prediction of Next Big One
Epicenter, Depth, M, Year
 Relocation of Earthquakes
Data
Dataset 1: ISS/ISC: Mainshocks of Large
Earthquakes and Their Aftershocks
1934 - 1995 (M 6.0)
Large Earthquakes (Mw 6.9) and Their
Aftershocks
Dataset 2: NIEP: 1996.1 2003.11

Method
Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination
(MJHD) Method by Hurukawa & Imoto (1992)
Modified Joint Hypocenter
Determination (MJHD) Method
n

(S -a * D' ) * D = 0
i =1
i 1 i i

( S -a * cos ) * cos = 0
i =1
i 2 i i ai 0 Shift Location of
n
Hypocenters
( S -a * sin ) * sin = 0
i =1
i 3 i i

Changing ai,
Si: Station Correction Relocated Location = NIEP Location
Di: Epicentral Distance
i: Azimuth
n: No. of Stations
D=D/AVE(D)-1 Absolute Location
AVE(D):Average Epicentral Distance of Older Earthquakes
 D e pth, km

180
a=(0 .0 , 0 .0 , 0 .0 )
Comparison of latitude, 160
a=(- 0 .6 , 0 .8 , 0 .3 )

M JHD for D ataset 1 and 2

longitude and focal 140

120
depth of events of 100

1996-2003 for both 80

parameter sets. 60
60 80 10 0 120 140 160 180
Loc ation 2
Latitu de Lo n g itu de

46 27
a= (0 .0 , 0 .0 , 0 .0 ) a= (0 .0 , 0 .0 , 0 .0 )
a= (- 0 .6 ,0 .8 , 0 .3 ) a= (- 0 .6 , 0 .8 , 0 .3 )
MJHD for Dataset 1 and 2

MJHD for Dataset 1 and 2

2 6 .8
4 5 .8

2 6 .6
4 5 .6
2 6 .4

4 5 .4
2 6 .2

4 5 .2 26
4 5 .2 4 5 .4 4 5 .6 4 5 .8 46 26 2 6 .2 2 6 .4 2 6 .6 2 6 .8 27
Lo c atio n 2 Lo c atio n 2
Epicentral Area
and Stations
1940.10.22 (Mw 7.7) Nov. 10-23, 1940
1977.3.4 (Mw 7.5) March 4 April 30, 1977
1986.8.30 (Mw 7.2) Aug. 30-31, 1986
1990.5.30 (Mw 6.9) May 30-31, 1990
Relocation: Jan. 1996 - Nov. 2003
C B
46 Magnitude
5 6 7 8

Depth
0 40 80 120

45
A D

26 27
SW NE NW SE
0 A B 0 C D

50 50
Depth(km)

Depth(km)

100 100

150 150

200 200
-100 -50 0 50 100 -100 -50 0 50 100
Distance(km) Distance(km)
Relocation: M6 earthquakes during 1934 to 1990.
1990/5/30

C B
1986/8/30
46 Magnitude
1977/3/4
5 6 7 8

1940

Depth
0 40 80 120

45
A D

26 27
SW NE NW SE
0 A B 0 C D

50 Depth(km) 50
Depth(km)

1990 1990
100 1977 100 1977
Seismic
Region 1940 1940
1986 1986
150 GAP 150

200 200
-100 -50 0 50 100 -100 -50 0 50 100
Distance(km) Distance(km)
List of relocated hypocenters of
earthquakes with M6.0
Date Time Lon. Lat. D M
1934/03/29 20:06 26.62 45.64 109 6.2 1)
1940/10/22 06:37 26.67 45.59 126 6.5 1)
1940/11/10 01:39 26.87 45.76 124 7.7 2)
1945/09/07 15:48 26.66 45.73 90 6.5 1)
1945/12/09 06:08 26.86 45.57 89 6.0 1)
1977/03/04 19:21 26.94 45.85 101 7.5 3)
1986/08/30 21:28 26.57 45.56 136 7.2 3)
1990/05/30 10:40 26.94 45.89 85 6.9 3)
1990/05/31 00:17 26.97 45.88 82 6.3 3)
1)Ms by International Seismological Summary (ISS),
2) Mw by Oncescu et al. (1999) (Note that Ms by ISS is 7.4.),
3) Mw by Harvard University (Dziwonski et al. [1981] and later updates).
M7 Earthquakes in 20 Century &
Seismic Gap

1908(M7.1) 1940(Mw7.7) 1977(Mw7.5) 1986(Mw7.2)

2007+-6
 Image of Next Earthquake
Epicenter: 45.6+-0.1o N, 26.6 +-0.1o E
Epicentral Area: 50km in NE-SW Direction and
20 km width
Rupture: Uni-Lateral Toward SW
Depth Range: 140 160 km
Magnitude M=7.3+-0.4
Time: 2007+-6
 Relationship between focal depth and year for each century
during 1471-2005.
a) M7.0 earthquakes
a Ye ar fo r E ac h C e n tu ry
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
60
M7 .3 -
80 1940, 1977 1990

M7 .0 - 7 .2 1977
De pth , km

100 1986, 1990

1940
120
1986
140

160
 Relationship between focal depth and year for each century
during 1471-2005.
b) M<7.0 earthquakes
b Ye ar fo r E ac h C e n tu ry
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
60
M6 .0 - 6 .8
80
De pth , km

100

120

140

160
 Depth Migration Model
Year
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
100

110

120
Depth

M=7.3-7.9
M=7.0-7.2
130

140

150

AIC indicates that this is a better model than a Poisson model.

 Conclusion
Past large earthquakes were relocated with recent small
earthquakes by the MJHD method to know reliable
absolute location.
The epicentral area is 85 km NE-SW and 20n km width.
A seismic region extends 60 160 km at depth.
Their rupture started at NE edge of each large event.
Depths of past large earthquakes in 1940 (Mw7.7), 1977
(Mw7.5), 1986 (Mw7.2), 1990 (Mw6.9) are 124, 101, 136,
85 km, respectively.
The proposed seismic gap at depth of 110-130 km
corresponds to the source area of the 1940 earthquake.
The real seismic gap exists at depth of 140 160 km.
An image of the next big one was proposed.