The Analysis of The Quantity Regarding Overseas

Tourists Visits and Its Growth Percentage in Indonesia

with Time Series Method Using Rapidminer
ver.7.6.001.

Natasya Novalita Niamur Rifqi

Hanif Ayu Kusmantini
Computer Science Computer Science
Computer Science School Of Computing Telkom
School Of Computing Telkom School Of Computing Telkom
University University
University Bandung, Indonesia
Bandung, Indonesia Bandung, Indonesia
1301144257 1301140134
1301144153

AbstractEach year, there are usually a rather noticeable
increase of overseas tourist visits to Indonesia. But it can always
be seen from a slight observation in which the results is rather
arguably to be used for creating predicitions to see the needed
development, To help us creating a stable and significant
prediction in its process, we use Time Series method with the
help of RapidMiner 7.6.001. The method allows us to to predict
the future based on the past and the current condition in which
the data has provided. The application itself can show us the
needed forecast for the data that we have to use for prediciting
the futures growth itself. With this method, weve gotten a clear
result of the predicition itself based on the total quantity of
overseas tourists that come to Indonesia and its growths
percentage in which each of them shows two types of
degradations. Based on this result, we hope that we can prepare
and do something for the matter to prevent the degaradation
from happening by taking these matters into consideation. has provided. There are 2 ways of classifications in this
Keywords: Time Series, Rapidminer, Forecasting, Overseas
Tourists, Growth Percentage, Quantity
I. INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is a country that has so many interesting
tourisms spot. Based on that advantage, its not impossible
that all those spots appeal overseas tourist to come and enjoy
along. Indonesia has so many interesting areas to explore and
increase the interests of overseas tourists. Bali is not the only
area that may appeal them in the process. Each year, the
quantity of overseas tourists increases significantly and it
affects others impression of Indonesias nature and its beauty.
By looking at the quantity of oversears tourists that come
visit Indonesia, we can estimate and calculate the growth
precentage of overseas tourists and the quantity of overseas
tourists themselves. The data that is used for the analysis
varies between the year of 2015 until 2017 in which the data
itself comes from The Ministry of Tourism in Indonesia. The
mentioned data will be used to predict the future data for years
ahead by using Time Series method.
Time-series is a method that is used to predict the future
based on the past and the current condition in which the data
methods, qualitative method and the quantitative method. For
the case that we use in this analysis, the method that we use to
classify the data can be considered as a quantitatve method to
implement Time Series using Rapidminer 7.6.001.
 II. MESUREMENT
A. Dataset
The data that is used for the analysis varies between the
year of 2015 until 2017 in which the data itself comes from
The Ministry of Tourism in Indonesia.

B. Time Series

For The Time Series itself, we will do it with the assistance

of Rapidminer ver. 7.6.001. We use this application because
it can show us the needed forecast for the data that we have to
use for prediciting the futures growth itself. Rapidminer also
has variety of templates or formattings that we can use for
Time Series method.
As for the variety of datas that we use, the total quantity of
overseas tourists that come to Indonesia and its growths Fig. 1. Forecasting of Overseas Tourists Growth Percentage
percentage from January 2015 until October 2017 will be our
main focus. We will try to get a suitable prediction for each Weve done a prediciton based on a data that weve
categories by using Time Series method. collected from the 31st of January 2015 until the 31s of
All of the datas themselves will be processed with a data October 2017. Based on the result above, we can create two
optimazion tool called Autoregressive Integrated Moving types of conclusion based on the total quantity of overseas
Average (ARIMA) in which in the tool itself we will use tourists that come to Indonesia and its growths percentage.
notations (p,d,q) with p as the auto-correlations coefficient
order, d as the quantity of differentiations order (it will be For the prediction of the growth percentage, the graph
used if the data is stationary which means the data will not show a slight escalation for its first prediction that is followed
always be consistent), and q as the moving average of by a constant degradation for the next predicitons in each
coefficients. months. This matter shows that The Ministry of Tourism has
ARIMA can be used with the addition of Time Series to take the result into consideration because it has a high
attributes in which each attributes represent the quantity of posibility in affecting the revenue itself.
overseas tourists and its growths percentage. As for the
(p,d,q), we will use the default score of (5,0,3). Based on the
data that has the length of 34 rows itself, the default score that
we have setted shows a good result where the quantity of
(p,d,q) must be 8 in which it is gained from 34/4. After weve
done the optimization process, we will do the implementation
of exsting operators to create the needed prediction.

Fig. 2. Hasil grafik forecasting jumlah total wisatawan asing

For the prediction of the overseas tourists quantity in

the future it shows the same result as the previous predicition
from the growth percentage in which it also shows a
degradation. The degradation in this case shows a clear
fluctuative in its predicition. This matter is also needed to take
into a consideration by The Ministry of Tourism.
III. CONCLUSION
From the reasearch that we have done, we have received
a clear result that can help with the analysis. This matter is
supported by all the datas that we have gotten from
Kemenpar.go.id in which each datas show a very clear dand
detailed information. Time Series helps us to create a
pprediction regarding the growth precentage of overseas
tourists and the quantity of overseas tourists themselves in
which all the results will give us some kinds of a warning and
ideas for us to act on this matter respectively.
In this case, Time Series has shown us a rather clear
prediction regarding the growth precentage of overseas
tourists and the quantity of overseas tourists themselves in
which each graphs show a degradation regarding these
matters. We hope that the result of this analysis will be useful
for the futures use by The Ministry of Tourism in Indonesia
for the degradation can possiblly affects the revenue overall.
REFERENCES
1. I. Mierswa, "Time Series Forecasting with
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Mancanegara," Badan Pusat Statistik, [Online].
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[Accessed 5 Desember 2017].
3. E. O. Suhartono, "ARIMA (Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average)," [Online]. Available:
http://oktiningrum09.blogspot.co.id/2011/12/model-a
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