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Abstract
This paper looks at the optimal portfolio problem when a value-at-risk constraint is imposed.
This provides a way to control risks in the optimal portfolio and to ful-l the requirement of
regulators on market risks. The value-at-risk constraint is derived for n risky assets plus a risk-free
asset and is imposed continuously over time. The problem is formulated as a constrained utility
maximization problem over a period of time. The dynamic programming technique is applied
to derive the HamiltonJacobiBellman equation and the method of Lagrange multiplier is used
to tackle the constraint. A numerical method is proposed to solve the HJB-equation and hence
the optimal constrained portfolio allocation. Under this formulation, we -nd that investments in
risky assets are optimally reduced by the imposed value-at-risk constraint.
? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
JEL classi,cation: G11
1. Introduction
Corresponding author. Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, The University of Hong Kong,
Pokfulam, Hong Kong. Tel.: +852 2859 2586; fax: +852 2858 6535.
E-mail address: makfcyiu@polyu.edu.hk (K.F.C. Yiu).
0165-1889/$ - see front matter ? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0165-1889(03)00116-7
1318 K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334
1 This is recommended by the Basle committee as a means to verify the accuracy of VaR -gures. See,
by other models. We hope our model will provide another perspective on the optimal
behaviour and the economic implications of imposing the VaR constraint.
By applying the VaR constraint continuously over time, assuming that portfolio allo-
cations do not change over a short horizon period, the agent cares about this calculated
VaR beyond his modelled horizon and constant investment opportunity set throughout,
we -nd that investments in risky assets are reduced whenever the VaR constraint
becomes active. The intuition behind this is very clear because there is a mapping
between VaRs and portfolio holdings at each instant, and if VaR is to be limited,
portfolio holdings in risky assets must be limited as well at all times. We believe that
any risk controls imposed in a way similar to here will achieve similar results. More-
over, we show numerically that when VaR is the risk control, consumption and total
expected utility are not considerably a;ected for certain choices of parameters. This
raises the question whether some continuously applied risk controls are more preferable
than others in a;ecting consumption and total expected utility apart from achieving risk
reduction.
The rest of the article is organized as follows. The VaR constraint is -rst derived
for n risky assets plus a risk-free asset to model market risks. The optimal portfolio
problem is then formulated as a constrained maximization of the expected utility, with
the constraint being the VaR level. Dynamic programming is applied to reduce the
whole problem to solving the HamiltonJacobiBellman equation (HJB-equation) cou-
pled with the VaR constraint, and the method of Lagrange multiplier is then applied
to handle the constraint. Finally, a numerical method is then proposed to solve the
HJB-equation and hence the constrained optimal portfolios.
The problem is often formulated as maximizing the total expected utility of con-
sumption or wealth over a certain time interval [0; T ]. At time t = 0, the agent is
endowed with initial wealth x0 and his/her problem is how to allocate investment
and/or consumption over the given time horizon. We assume that the agents invest-
ment opportunities are the following:
(i) The agent can invest money in the risk-free asset B at the deterministic short
rate of interest r. This deterministic process can be written as
dB(t) = rB(t) dt: (1)
(ii) The agent can invest in n risky assets with the price process as (S1 (t); : : : ; Sn (t)).
We assume that the vector process S(t) follows the dynamics 2
dS(t) = D(S(t)) dt + D(S(t)) dW(t); (2)
where W(t) is a k-dimensional standard Wiener process, is an n-vector, is an nk
matrix, and D(S(t)) is the diagonal matrix diag[S1 ; : : : ; Sn ]. Let the amount allocated
2 For simplicity, we assume here that r; and are constants. However, the -nal results will also hold
to S(t) be the n-vector !(t) and de-ne e to be the n-vector of 1, the dynamic of a
portfolio consisting of B(t) and S(t) with consumption c(t) is therefore
X (t) !(t) e
dX (t) = dB(t) + !(t) D(S(t))1 dS(t) c(t) dt (3)
B(t)
= (X (t) !(t) e)r dt + !(t) ( dt + dW(t)) c(t) dt (4)
subject to
dX (t) = (!(t) ( re) + rX (t) c(t)) dt + !(t) dW(t): (7)
3. VaR constraint
3 If r; and are functions of time, approximations will be required for these parameters as well over
be adjusted in discrete time and the decision made is based on the holdings at time t.
Thus, (12) becomes
s
Y (s) Y (t) = (t)(es et ) + e !(t) dW(); (13)
t
which implies
s
X (s) = e(st) (X (t) (t)) + (t) + e(s) !(t) dW(): (14)
t
This is an OrnsteinUhlenbeck process except that the speed-of-adjustment parameter
is negative instead. The conditional mean on time t is given by
Et (X (s)) = (t) + e(st) (X (t) (t)); (15)
while the conditional covariance is given by
!(t) !(t) |su|
Covt [X (s); X (u)] = (e e(s+u2t) ); (16)
2
where = . The conditional variance is therefore given by
!(t) !(t)
Vt (X (s)) = (1 e2(st) ): (17)
2
In order to eliminate X (t) from the VaR constraint, de-ne the losses by 4
PX (t) = X (s) er(st) X (t); (18)
the VaR de-nition
Pr(PX (t) 6 VaRt ) = k (19)
implies
e2rPt 1
VaRt = ((t) (t)erPt ) "1 (k) !(t) !(t): (20)
2r
Substituting (t), the constraint of restricting the VaR at level R is
a1 !(t) !(t) + a2 !(t) + bc(t) 6 R; (21)
where
e2rPt 1 re rPt 1
a1 = "1 (k) ; a2 = (e 1); b = (erPt 1):
2r r r
(22)
To interpret this constraint, we note that in one dimension, the constraint reduces to
a1 $|!(t)| + a2 !(t) + bc(t) 6 R: (23)
Rearranging gives
R + bc(t) 6 (a1 $ a2 )!(t) (24)
4 Note that if the conventional losses X (s) X (t) are used as the measure, the derivation will not be
and
(a1 $ + a2 )!(t) + bc(t) 6 R: (25)
For reasonable parameters, (a1 $ + a2 ) is greater than zero. Therefore, constraint (25)
imposes an upper bound on !(t) to constrain the investment in the risky asset. In the
extreme case when !(t) 0; bc(t) c(t)Pt is the only factor to decrease the portfolio
value. Therefore, if R is chosen to be small, this will constrain the consumption as
well. Similarly, (a1 $ a2 ) is greater than zero for reasonable parameters and (24)
imposes a lower bound on !(t) to constrain the short-selling of the risky asset.
The -nal optimal portfolio problem with VaR constraint is
T
max E U (t; c(t)) dt (26)
!(t); c(t) 0
subject to
dX (t) = (!(t) ( re) + rX (t) c(t)) dt + !(t) dW(t); (27)
a1 !(t) !(t) + a2 !(t) + bc(t) 6 R: (28)
4. Optimality conditions
'(x; t) 6 0: (35d)
Rearranging (35a) gives
Vx 1 ( re) 'opt (x; t)1 a2
!opt (x; t) = ; (36)
Vxx + 'opt (x; t)a1 = H (!opt (x; t))
where Vx 9V=9x and Vxx 92 V=9x2 . In addition, (35b) is used to solve for copt (x; t)
while (35c) is applied to solve for 'opt (x; t) whenever 'opt (x; t) = 0. Substituting
!opt (x; t); copt (x; t) and 'opt (x; t) into (30) gives
9V 9V 1 92 V
+ U (t; copt (x; t)) + G(x; !opt (x; t); copt (x; t)) + H (!opt (x; t)) 2 = 0;
9t 9x 2 9x
(37)
which can then be solved for the optimal value function Vopt (x; t). Because of the non-
linearity in copt (x; t) and !opt (x; t), the -rst-order conditions together with the HJB-
equation are a highly non-linear system and numerical methods are required to solve
for !opt (x; t), copt (x; t); 'opt (x; t) and Vopt (x; t) iteratively.
1324 K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334
*
copt (x; t) *h(x; t)copt (x; t)
B(copt (x; t); h(x; t)) = : (46)
x* x
To avoid the singularity in calculating negative powers of h(x; t) near to the terminal
time T , (43) is transformed into
g (x; t) + (1 0)A(!opt (x; t); x)g(x; t) + (1 0)B(copt (x; t); g(x; t))g(x; t)* = 0
(47)
with the terminal condition
g(x; T ) = 0; (48)
where
*
g(x; t) = h(x; t)10 ; 0= : (49)
1*
In the unconstrained case, (47) reduces to
g (t) + (1 0)Ag(t) + (1 0)B = 0; (50)
where
(. r)2 1 (. r)2
A=* + r + ); B = 1 *: (51)
$2 (1 *) 2 $2 (1 *)
This unconstrained solution will be used as an initial guess to the iterative algorithm.
Dividing the computational domain into a grid of Nx Nt mesh points and omitting (x; t)
in all variables for the simplicity of notation, the -nal algorithm can be summarized
as follows:
(0) (0) (0)
(1) 'opt = 0; !opt = (. r)x=($2 (* 1)); copt = xh1=(1*) and solve (50) for the
unconstrained solution. Set k = 0.
(k+1)
(2) For x = [0; Px; : : : ; Nx Px] and t = [(Nt 1)Pt; : : : ; Pt; 0], calculate 'opt from
(k+1) (k) (k)
'opt (R (a1 $ + a2 )!opt bcopt ) = 0; (52)
Fig. 1. Asset allocations with and without the VaR constraint. In this case, the parameters are
1
. = 0:2; $ = 0:5; r = 0:1; ) = 0:2; * = 0:5, the horizon period is Pt = 50 , the maximum loss allowed
is R = 100 with probability k = 0:01. In the -gure, kinks are produced whenever the VaR constraint becomes
active to reduce investments in the risky asset.
1
-xed at 1000, which corresponds to a VaR horizon period Pt = 50 7 days. The
stochastic process is chosen arbitrarily with . = 0:2; $ = 0:5 and the risk-free rate is
r = 0:1. The parameters in the utility function are taken to be ) = 0:2; * = 0:5. For
the VaR constraint, the maximum loss is limited to R = 100 with probability k = 0:01.
Finally, Px = 2 and Nx = 500 are used which has the range x [0; 1000]. In this case,
the unconstrained solution suggests that ! = 0:8x.
A total of -ve cycles have been executed where changes in h(x; t) became negligible.
Fig. 1 compares the asset distribution for di;erent portfolio values with and without the
VaR constraint at di;erent times. From the -gure, a good control over the investment
in the risky asset has been achieved and the proportions invested in the risky asset have
been reduced in order to ful-l the VaR constraint. In particular, when the constraint
is not active, the optimal portfolio follows the unconstrained solution; as the portfolio
value increases, the VaR constraint becomes active and allocates less to the risky
asset. This is particularly so when t is close to the maturity time T . The points where
the constraint becomes active produces kinks in the curves. Figs. 2 and 3 show the
Lagrange multipliers and the VaR values along x at two di;erent times, respectively.
They show the exact portfolio values when the VaR constraint becomes active where
the Lagrange multipliers are negative instead of zeroes.
The consumption is depicted in Fig. 4 along x at two di;erent times. Clearly, very
similar consumption patterns are obtained for both unconstrained and constrained opti-
mization. Thus, for this set of parameters, the consumption pattern has not been a;ected
greatly by the risk control. Fig. 5 depicts the optimal value function Vopt (x; 0) with
and without the VaR constraint. Since the utility function is de-ned solely by the dis-
counted consumption and because the consumption pattern is not changed very much,
K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334 1327
Fig. 2. The Lagrange multipliers show that the VaR constraint becomes active whenever ' becomes negative.
therefore, only a small decrease in the optimal total expected utility is observed by
imposing the VaR constraint in this example.
In order to demonstrate the slow varying property of h in x, Fig. 6 depicts the
h(x; t) function over time. When x is small, the VaR constraint is not active which
implies h is a function of t only. When x is large, the VaR constraint becomes active
and h depends on x as well. Therefore, in the -gure, two values of x are plotted,
namely x = 1000 where the VaR constraint is active and x = 500 where the VaR
constraint is mostly inactive. Clearly, from the -gure, only a very little variation in
1328 K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334
Fig. 4. The consumption pattern for di;erent portfolio values at two di;erent times show that the consumption
pattern is not a;ected very much by the imposed risk constraint in the -rst example.
Fig. 5. The optimal total expected utility for di;erent portfolio values shows that it has not been decreased
very much by the imposed risk constraint in the -rst example.
Fig. 6. The plot of the h(x; t) function over time shows that it is a slow varying function in x in the -rst
example.
where the derivatives of Vopt are calculated via the -nite di;erence approximations.
The discrete errors can then be measured by the norm
Nx N t
AV = 2i;2 j =(Nt Nx ): (57)
i=1 j=1
Fig. 7. Asset allocations with and without the VaR constraint. In this case, the parameters are
1
. = 0:12; $ = 0:2; r = 0:05; ) = 0:1; * = 0:3, the horizon period is Pt = 50 , the maximum loss al-
lowed is R = 100 with probability k = 0:01. In this case, the agent is to borrow and invest into the risky
asset. Again, imposing the VaR constraint reduces the allocation to risky asset and produces kinks.
Fig. 8. The Lagrange multipliers show that the VaR constraint becomes active whenever ' becomes negative.
even more money should be borrowed to invest into the risky asset. Once risk control
is imposed, the investment in the risky asset is decreased signi-cantly. Under this
circumstance, the optimal total expected utility is decreased by a noticeable amount as
shown in Fig. 13. The decrease is caused by a wider variation in h(x; t) in x as shown in
Fig. 14. The intuition behind this is obvious because when the agent is less risk-aversed,
the risk constraint will certainly impose more restrictions on the agents decision on
investing heavily in the risky asset and the decrease in the optimal total expected
K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334 1331
Fig. 10. The plot of the h(x; t) function over time shows that it is a slow varying function in x again in the
second example.
utility will therefore be larger. Another problem has been raised here. Because of the
variation of h(x; t) in x, the discrete error measure of the HJB-equation has dropped
to AV = 0:353, showing that the numerical method in solving the HJB-equation is
not as accurate as in the other examples.
1332 K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334
Fig. 11. The consumption pattern for di;erent portfolio values at two di;erent times show that the consump-
tion pattern is not a;ected very much by the imposed risk constraint in the second example.
Fig. 12. The optimal total expected utility for di;erent portfolio values shows that it has not been decreased
very much by the imposed risk constraint in the second example.
6. Conclusion
The optimal portfolio problem together with a VaR constraint has been studied. For
the continuous-time model where the constraint is applied continuously, the dynamic
programming technique and the stochastic control theory have been applied to reduce
the problem to solving the HJB-equation coupling with the VaR constraint. The method
K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334 1333
Fig. 13. The optimal total expected utility for di;erent portfolio values. In this case, the parameters are
1
. = 0:12; $ = 0:2; r = 0:05; ) = 0:1; * = 0:5, the horizon period is Pt = 50 , the maximum loss allowed is
R = 100 with probability k = 0:01. Since * is larger here, the agent is less risk-aversed and therefore prone
to make riskier decision when the risk constraint is not imposed. This accounts for the noticeable drop as a
result.
Fig. 14. The plot of the h(x; t) function over time shows that it has a higher variation in x in this example.
of Lagrange multiplier has been applied to handle the constraint. A numerical method
has been proposed to solve for the constrained optimal portfolios.
From the numerical results, we -nd that the constrained optimal portfolios invested
less in the risky asset. This is due to the fact that the VaR constraint is applied over
time so that there is a direct relationship between VaRs and portfolio holdings at each
1334 K.F.C. Yiu / Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 28 (2004) 1317 1334
instant. We believe that any risk controls imposed in a way similar to here will achieve
similar results. Since the constraint is imposed di;erently from other models in the
literature, the method provides another insight into the problem of optimal portfolios
with regulatory controls over market risks. Although the results derived here will still
hold if r; and are functions of time, allowing for stochastic r; and will be
more complicated. It would certainly be of interest to look at this as an extension to
the present study.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank Professor William Perraudin, Dr Mike Orszag and
Professor Elias S.W. Shiu for encouragements and helpful discussions, and to thank
the three anonymous referees for their comments.
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